A Conversation About The Brewers With Al ...
... Al Bethke, that is, from the Brewers blog Al's Ramblings:
AY: What is the single most important key for the Brewers in 2007 if they are to contend for a playoff spot?
AB: I'd say the most important thing is that the youngsters; Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and soon to be Ryan Braun, continue to develop offensively (and to a lesser extent, defensively). They could make this team a top 5 team offensively, or a bottom 5 team.
What do you feel will determine the Cubs' success, or lack thereof, in 2007?
AY: For me, it's the starting pitching. This team will score runs, with Derrek Lee back, and Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones and Michael Barrett all capable of pounding the ball. But if the starting pitching can't go deep into games, the bullpen will be overtaxed as it was last year, and that is always disastrous. Some Cubs fans didn't like the Lilly & Marquis signings. Granted, it's small sample size, but the first start this year for each one is a good sign.
Geoff Jenkins. Comeback, or will he just get hurt again?
AB: Geoff actually had a decent year in '06, but struggled versus LHP. He will be severely limited versus LHP, so I think he'll be fine. If both he and Kevin Mench match their career numbers against pitchers that throw with the opposite hand, they might outproduce all but a few LF's, as well as provide nice corner OF depth.
Speaking of OF's, I think Matt Murton is a fine young player, and I feel badly he's seemingly behind Jones and Floyd. Explain that to me.
AY: I don't see Murton as "behind" Jones -- Jones plays RF, and Murton LF. About Jones, he may be traded sometime this year so the Cubs can make room for Felix Pie.
Floyd can hit, no question about it. I don't like the DH, but I sometimes find myself wishing the NL had it, because Floyd would be perfect. He's still recovering from heel surgery, and is a statue in the outfield. Murton will get his playing time.
Of the Brewers' young players: Corey Hart, J. J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder -- who is going to become the biggest star, and why?
AB: I've been saying Weeks because he will hit and he plays a position few players hit much at. However, I think there's a good chance Ryan Braun will be better than all of them.
I was an advocate of the Crew signing Jason Marquis (only Suppan was higher on my list), but I thought he'd sign for one year at $3-4M, not the lucrative contract he ended up with. Do you agree he'll rebound, or do you have low expectations?
AY: I have had spirited debates on BCB about Marquis. I wanted him signed, and I agree, the three-year deal was over the top.
But I think he's figured out some of the things he did wrong last year. He had a good first start, he had a decent spring, and if he could replicate the year he had with the 2004 Cardinals -- a 100-win team that made the World Series, where he went 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA -- we'll be very, very happy. Who is/are the Cub player or players that you most fear?
AB: I can't say I fear anyone, but I do respect the back of the bullpen, especially Howry and Eyre, who the Crew went after and were outbid for. Who's your favorite Brewers' player?
AY: I really like Corey Hart. I see he's been pretty much pencilled in as uour regular right fielder this year, but I know he can play other positions. At his age -- 24 -- I see him developing more power as he gets older, especially with his size. I wanted to see the Cubs try to pry him away from you guys. How do you feel about we Cubs fans coming up to Miller Park and "taking over" during most Cubs/Brewers series?
AB: I have no problem with it, it's usually about a 50/50 split. The Cubs have transplanted fans all over the country, and the location makes it perfect for many northern IL fans. WI actually has quite a few Cubs' fans, many older gents from the days before the Brewers. In fact, I silently thank them for their donation to the Crew's coffers.:) Heck, the Cubs/Cards games in StL are usually pretty evenly split, and the Brewers have a fraction of the tradition of the Cardinals.
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hart
And how would you have done that? It's big market baseball thinking like this that gets small market teams up in arms. you can't just poach young inexpensive talent from small market teams. It doesn't work that way. you can only over pay for free agents, and trade away your prospects...
:)
by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 8:49 AM CDT 0 recs
LOL...
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 8:50 AM CDT
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Maybe.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 9:01 AM CDT
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About Jones Being Traded.....
by BeerCub on Apr 6, 2007 8:54 AM CDT 0 recs
no way
i know the brewers have one of those (and at least the platoon is the good side) and they couldn't get rid of him.
by jacob on
Apr 6, 2007 9:01 AM CDT
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That $10m...
Jones may be a "platoon" player, but as the LH side of a platoon, he can still put up 400+ AB, and have his numbers look better because they're not being weighed down with his brutal numbers vs. LHP.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 9:02 AM CDT
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LH
All I know is that it is a buyer's market for left handed platoon OFs. If we couldn't move jenkins, i suspect you won't be able to move jones.
i'd debate the $10 million being relatively cheap. Jay Payton signed a 2 year deal for 9.5, Alou got 8.5 for one, catalanotto got 13 for 3, dellucci got 11.5 for 3.
But that's Baltimore, SF, and Philly. The dumb GMs with a lot of money. None of those are great contracts, I'd say Jones' fits right in with those. So it might be the going rate. It's not a club friendly deal and locks out half of MLB who just can't sign average players for elite dollars.
Your potential trading partners are dwindled to Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Mets. And those OFs are pretty set.
I could see Jones getting packaged up with a prospect and a bundle of cash for a replacement level reliever... but has Hendry ever admitted a mistake like that?
by jacob on
Apr 6, 2007 9:19 AM CDT
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Jones is better than Jenkins...
There may be other takers later in the year due to pennant races, injuries, etc.
Or, Jones might spend all year here. I know Hendry would like to move him, but he's not going to give him away.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 9:40 AM CDT
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jenkins is better than jones
jenkins is owed 7 million. jones is owed 10 million. for pennant race pickups, and injury replacements, a one year contract is far, far more desirable than a two year contract.
by jacob on
Apr 6, 2007 10:05 AM CDT
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The money....
I still think Jones will have a better year than Jenkins this year.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 10:10 AM CDT
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jenkins...
Jenkins' zips, marcel and chone projections are: .338/.434, .351/.465, .342/.442
but those are based entirely on non-platoon stats, Jenkins is a career .362/.530 hitter against righties, whom he should see exclusively this year. I would not at all be surprised to see Jenkins post a .370/.460 line this season... could you see Jones doing that? It may turn out to be a wash, the one bet i would not make, though, is Jones out-performing Jenkins with any meaningful significance.
Cheers mate, good luck tonight, you'll need some, the money line on the Brewers is -120.
by jacob on
Apr 6, 2007 11:09 AM CDT
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Jones is more
We'll see, but Jenkins is gettin' to the "one and done" or "two and done" stage.
by TheEman on
Apr 6, 2007 4:21 PM CDT
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Re
Visit The Digital Gazette
by Jed Taylor on
Apr 6, 2007 8:09 PM CDT
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marquis
I don't think anyone doubts he'll bounce back from a 6+ ERA and a bunch of bad luck, but paying him for his lucky 2004, on the gamble that he returns to average is not worth even 4 million...
:)
by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 8:58 AM CDT 0 recs
Braun
by Scott on Apr 6, 2007 9:32 AM CDT 0 recs
I saw Braun play in ST.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 9:39 AM CDT
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Either that or a DH.
My flight leaves in less than 24 hours. See what you can do about warming it up a few degrees, won't you Al?
:)
(Actually, I don't want to jinx myself. As long as there isn't precipitation on Monday, I don't really care how cold I get.)
by Scott on
Apr 6, 2007 10:36 AM CDT
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Latest forecast...
Not great, but it could be (and has been, on other Opening Days) far worse.
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 10:39 AM CDT
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Yeah, that's not too bad
It was our first year up from Texas and we had no idea what we were in store for.
by Scott on
Apr 6, 2007 10:49 AM CDT
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IIRC...
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 1:21 PM CDT
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I think you're right
by Scott on
Apr 6, 2007 2:09 PM CDT
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My roommates
by TkGoUWGB on
Apr 6, 2007 11:50 AM CDT
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That did occur to me. LOL!
by Al on
Apr 6, 2007 1:20 PM CDT
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Although early
I am really anxious to see how Hill pitches out of the gates this season.
by amaru on Apr 6, 2007 1:05 PM CDT 0 recs
I fear the Brew Crew
Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus was on WGN Sports Central last night and he was practically spitting into the phone with enthusiasm about how the Brewers had no real weak links in their team aside from some question marks in the bullpen (which pretty much every major league team has).
So, after witnessing (well, listening to) the debacle that was yesterday's game against the Reds, I can't say I'm bursting with confidence about tonight's game. Then again, the Cubs always seem to find a way to rise to the occasion against "greater" teams, so I think there is some room for optimism.
by dat cubfan daver on Apr 6, 2007 1:21 PM CDT 0 recs
They are much improved
by SuperContext on
Apr 6, 2007 1:26 PM CDT
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I kind of fear the Brew Crew
But I feel this is a trendy pick. I don't know about you guys, but up until about a week before the season started, I didn't hear a peep about Milwaukee being the coolest thing since sliced bread. The Brewers look good ... on paper. The Cubs are a playoff team ... on paper. But paper burns, much like the end of the 2003 season.
I just hope soembody catches Pittsburgh...
by northsidenonsense on
Apr 6, 2007 4:28 PM CDT
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re: I kind of fear the Brew Crew
Damn, those Brewers kick ass. Great team. Great organization. Class acts. Unstoppable this season.
(Go Cubs tonight.)
by dat cubfan daver on
Apr 6, 2007 4:48 PM CDT
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