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A Conversation About The Brewers With Al ...

... Al Bethke, that is, from the Brewers blog Al's Ramblings:

AY: What is the single most important key for the Brewers in 2007 if they are to contend for a playoff spot?

AB: I'd say the most important thing is that the youngsters; Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and soon to be Ryan Braun, continue to develop offensively (and to a lesser extent, defensively). They could make this team a top 5 team offensively, or a bottom 5 team.

What do you feel will determine the Cubs' success, or lack thereof, in 2007?

AY: For me, it's the starting pitching. This team will score runs, with Derrek Lee back, and Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Jacque Jones and Michael Barrett all capable of pounding the ball. But if the starting pitching can't go deep into games, the bullpen will be overtaxed as it was last year, and that is always disastrous. Some Cubs fans didn't like the Lilly & Marquis signings. Granted, it's small sample size, but the first start this year for each one is a good sign.

Geoff Jenkins. Comeback, or will he just get hurt again?

AB: Geoff actually had a decent year in '06, but struggled versus LHP. He will be severely limited versus LHP, so I think he'll be fine. If both he and Kevin Mench match their career numbers against pitchers that throw with the opposite hand, they might outproduce all but a few LF's, as well as provide nice corner OF depth.

Speaking of OF's, I think Matt Murton is a fine young player, and I feel badly he's seemingly behind Jones and Floyd. Explain that to me.

AY: I don't see Murton as "behind" Jones -- Jones plays RF, and Murton LF. About Jones, he may be traded sometime this year so the Cubs can make room for Felix Pie.

Floyd can hit, no question about it. I don't like the DH, but I sometimes find myself wishing the NL had it, because Floyd would be perfect. He's still recovering from heel surgery, and is a statue in the outfield. Murton will get his playing time.

Of the Brewers' young players: Corey Hart, J. J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder -- who is going to become the biggest star, and why?

AB: I've been saying Weeks because he will hit and he plays a position few players hit much at. However, I think there's a good chance Ryan Braun will be better than all of them.

I was an advocate of the Crew signing Jason Marquis (only Suppan was higher on my list), but I thought he'd sign for one year at $3-4M, not the lucrative contract he ended up with. Do you agree he'll rebound, or do you have low expectations?

AY: I have had spirited debates on BCB about Marquis. I wanted him signed, and I agree, the three-year deal was over the top.

But I think he's figured out some of the things he did wrong last year. He had a good first start, he had a decent spring, and if he could replicate the year he had with the 2004 Cardinals -- a 100-win team that made the World Series, where he went 15-7 with a 3.71 ERA -- we'll be very, very happy. Who is/are the Cub player or players that you most fear?

AB: I can't say I fear anyone, but I do respect the back of the bullpen, especially Howry and Eyre, who the Crew went after and were outbid for. Who's your favorite Brewers' player?

AY: I really like Corey Hart. I see he's been pretty much pencilled in as uour regular right fielder this year, but I know he can play other positions. At his age -- 24 -- I see him developing more power as he gets older, especially with his size. I wanted to see the Cubs try to pry him away from you guys. How do you feel about we Cubs fans coming up to Miller Park and "taking over" during most Cubs/Brewers series?

AB: I have no problem with it, it's usually about a 50/50 split. The Cubs have transplanted fans all over the country, and the location makes it perfect for many northern IL fans. WI actually has quite a few Cubs' fans, many older gents from the days before the Brewers. In fact, I silently thank them for their donation to the Crew's coffers.:) Heck, the Cubs/Cards games in StL are usually pretty evenly split, and the Brewers have a fraction of the tradition of the Cardinals.  

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hart
I wanted to see the Cubs try to pry him away from you guys.

And how would you have done that? It's big market baseball thinking like this that gets small market teams up in arms. you can't just poach young inexpensive talent from small market teams. It doesn't work that way. you can only over pay for free agents, and trade away your prospects...

:)

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 8:49 AM CDT   0 recs

LOL...
... I didn't say HOW I wanted to "pry" Hart away from the Brewers, only that I wanted to ...
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 8:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

pie
would you want hart over pie or murton?

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 8:52 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe.
I'd have to see a full season of Hart to say that, but maybe.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 9:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

About Jones Being Traded.....
....I keep reading this and it's often stated as fact, that it's going to happen. Is this just wishful thinking on some people's part or is there anything tangible to cite as evidence?
Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Apr 6, 2007 8:54 AM CDT   0 recs

no way
i don't think anyone is looking for a platoon player with 10+ million remaining on his contract.

i know the brewers have one of those (and at least the platoon is the good side) and they couldn't get rid of him.

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 9:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That $10m...
... is (relatively) cheap in today's market.

Jones may be a "platoon" player, but as the LH side of a platoon, he can still put up 400+ AB, and have his numbers look better because they're not being weighed down with his brutal numbers vs. LHP.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 9:02 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

LH
You're right, my bad, instantly more valuable as LH.

All I know is that it is a buyer's market for left handed platoon OFs. If we couldn't move jenkins, i suspect you won't be able to move jones.

i'd debate the $10 million being relatively cheap. Jay Payton signed a 2 year deal for 9.5, Alou got 8.5 for one, catalanotto got 13 for 3, dellucci got 11.5 for 3.

But that's Baltimore, SF, and Philly. The dumb GMs with a lot of money. None of those are great contracts, I'd say Jones' fits right in with those. So it might be the going rate. It's not a club friendly deal and locks out half of MLB who just can't sign average players for elite dollars.

Your potential trading partners are dwindled to Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, White Sox, Mets. And those OFs are pretty set.

I could see Jones getting packaged up with a prospect and a bundle of cash for a replacement level reliever... but has Hendry ever admitted a mistake like that?

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 9:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Jones is better than Jenkins...
... at this stage of their respective careers, and Jones' contract is smaller than Jenkins'.

There may be other takers later in the year due to pennant races, injuries, etc.

Or, Jones might spend all year here. I know Hendry would like to move him, but he's not going to give him away.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 9:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

jenkins is better than jones
for 2007, jenkins will have a better year.

jenkins is owed 7 million. jones is owed 10 million. for pennant race pickups, and injury replacements, a one year contract is far, far more desirable than a two year contract.

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 10:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The money....
... yeah, I can see that.

I still think Jones will have a better year than Jenkins this year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 10:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

jenkins...
Your projection for Jones was .326/.460, the BCB projection for Jones was .322/.456, and this from a notably wildly optimistic bunch. :)

Jenkins' zips, marcel and chone projections are: .338/.434, .351/.465, .342/.442
but those are based entirely on non-platoon stats, Jenkins is a career .362/.530 hitter against righties, whom he should see exclusively this year. I would not at all be surprised to see Jenkins post a .370/.460 line this season... could you see Jones doing that? It may turn out to be a wash, the one bet i would not make, though, is Jones out-performing Jenkins with any meaningful significance.

Cheers mate, good luck tonight, you'll need some, the money line on the Brewers is -120.

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 11:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Jones is more
athletic, can steal bases, get to balls that Jenkins can't, can take the extra base, and put up better numbers than your guy last year.

We'll see, but Jenkins is gettin' to the "one and done" or "two and done" stage.

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Apr 6, 2007 4:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Re
And it's a good thing he has that extra speed, since he needs to run the ball back in to the infield.

by Jed Taylor on Apr 6, 2007 8:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

marquis
Also, i believe Al (AB) was the ONLY advocate for signing Marquis. Marquis, even't without the Suppan signing would probably be working out of the bullpen for the Brewers.

I don't think anyone doubts he'll bounce back from a 6+ ERA and a bunch of bad luck, but paying him for his lucky 2004, on the gamble that he returns to average is not worth even 4 million...

:)

by jacob on Apr 6, 2007 8:58 AM CDT   0 recs

Braun
I agree with AB that Braun might be the best prospect of the group that was discussed. If he ever can actually learn to field, he'll be a major force in this league for a long long time. His bat is major league ready, but his defense would be suspect for little league.

by Scott on Apr 6, 2007 9:32 AM CDT   0 recs

I saw Braun play in ST.
He hit a monstrous home run all the way over the right-center field berm at Maryvale. The guy can hit. You're right, if he ever learns to play defense, he'll be an All-Star.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 9:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Either that or a DH.
but then he'd need to be traded.

My flight leaves in less than 24 hours. See what you can do about warming it up a few degrees, won't you Al?

:)

(Actually, I don't want to jinx myself. As long as there isn't precipitation on Monday, I don't really care how cold I get.)

by Scott on Apr 6, 2007 10:36 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Latest forecast...
... sunny and about 45 degrees.

Not great, but it could be (and has been, on other Opening Days) far worse.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 10:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, that's not too bad
Maybe you can help me figure out exactly how many years we've been coming up there. I think we started in 1996, but the temperature was 29 with a wind chill of 1. There were extremely light flurries during the game.

It was our first year up from Texas and we had no idea what we were in store for.

by Scott on Apr 6, 2007 10:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

IIRC...
... that 29-degree opener was in 1997, not 1996. That's the coldest I've ever been there. The sun was out, but it didn't help at all.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 1:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you're right
I looked at retrosheet and the Cubs opened at home against the Padres in 1996, and I don't recall seeing that game. In 1997, they opened against the Marlins, and I definitely rememeber that because we were walking around Wrigley the day before the game and saw Bobby Bonilla waiting on a cab and got his autograph.

by Scott on Apr 6, 2007 2:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

My roommates
practically want to have the guy's babies. My one roommate was offering me some nice things for the autogrpahed Braun rookie card I got in a pack of baseball cards. You gotta love when a team is able to produce players like the ones the Brewers, and cry when you realize when your team has apparently lost the ability to in regards to everyday position players.
"Hello again, everybody. It's a bee-yooo-tiful day for baseball."- Harry Caray

by TkGoUWGB on Apr 6, 2007 11:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Al & Al
You guys should have a morning radio show.

by VS on Apr 6, 2007 11:41 AM CDT   0 recs

That did occur to me. LOL!
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Apr 6, 2007 1:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Although early
this series against the Brew crew will is important for both teams. I predict that these will be the two teams fighting for the division at the end.

I am really anxious to see how Hill pitches out of the gates this season.

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Apr 6, 2007 1:05 PM CDT   0 recs

I fear the Brew Crew
There, I said it. I can't read, watch or listen to anything regarding baseball lately without hearing about what a great team Milwaukee has this year and how they're going to surprise everyone by dominating the NL central. (Although it won't be much of a surprise if everyone keeps freakin' talkin' about it.)

Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus was on WGN Sports Central last night and he was practically spitting into the phone with enthusiasm about how the Brewers had no real weak links in their team aside from some question marks in the bullpen (which pretty much every major league team has).

So, after witnessing (well, listening to) the debacle that was yesterday's game against the Reds, I can't say I'm bursting with confidence about tonight's game. Then again, the Cubs always seem to find a way to rise to the occasion against "greater" teams, so I think there is some room for optimism.

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 6, 2007 1:21 PM CDT   0 recs

They are much improved
As are the Cubs.  But I wouldn't worry about their "trendy pick" status - it seems that teams getting that type of hype usually don't pan out, while the real teams that come out of nowhere, like Detroit last year, are foreseen by none of the so-called experts.

by SuperContext on Apr 6, 2007 1:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I kind of fear the Brew Crew
I think the Brewers are good, perhaps a great team. But I'd be reluctant to call them a "greater" team. The Brewers have a great starting rotation, especially with Sheets and Capuano, and their younger guys can really hit.

But I feel this is a trendy pick. I don't know about you guys, but up until about a week before the season started, I didn't hear a peep about Milwaukee being the coolest thing since sliced bread. The Brewers look good ... on paper. The Cubs are a playoff team ... on paper. But paper burns, much like the end of the 2003 season.

I just hope soembody catches Pittsburgh...

by northsidenonsense on Apr 6, 2007 4:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

re: I kind of fear the Brew Crew
Yeah, I hear ya. I'm kinda hoping that the more everyone talks about how great the Brewers are, the more likely it is that they'll crash and burn (or at least be mediocre). So let's keep it up...

Damn, those Brewers kick ass. Great team. Great organization. Class acts. Unstoppable this season.

(Go Cubs tonight.)

I didn't have the ball, bitch!

by dat cubfan daver on Apr 6, 2007 4:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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