Zambrano's struggles

by luv4cubs2 on May 10, 2007 12:32 PM CDT Comment 47 comments

The Cubs front office are screwing themselves and Zambrano over by not signing an extension. Having already spent over $300 million, adding another 80 to it won't hurt in selling the team. What they are doing is causing Zambrano to pitch under tremendous amount of pressure and having these poor performances. If the pitcher was anyone else, I would agree that the uncertainty of the contract situation isn't going to affect them, but Zambrano being the emotional guy he is, it does and will continue to affect his pitching. It's not like he gets to play everyday. He plays once every 5 days and there is little room for error, especially being labeled the ace of the staff. The front office has to do everyone a favor and sign this guy.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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If Zambrano can't pitch without a contract.......

then he's just mentally weak.

RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 10, 2007 12:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ya beat me to it

He's pitched bad on opening day the past 3 years, he's pitching poorly now supposedly due to the contract situation....is this really a guy you want to rely on in the heat of a pennant race or with the bright lights shining on him in the playoffs? If he can't handle contract issues how is he going to handle a playoff game at Wrigley?

I love watching Zambrano play, but if we are saying that he is mentally weak (which is what I gather this poster is trying to say) then is he really a guy you want to throw a truck load of money at?

AC 00 00 00 - BELIEVE

by mike on May 10, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No,

I don't think he is. I wouldn't throw that kind of money at him anyway.

RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 10, 2007 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Although I can't make a mountain out of his early season struggles. Pitchers, even the best, go through periods of struggle from time to time. Zambrano seems healthy and still has the velocity and heavy ball. He'll get things turned around. Is he an ace in the truest sense of the word? No. But that's OK.

Ah, come on guys... It's so simple. Maybe you need a refresher course. Hey! It's all ball bearings nowadays. ...

by BlueMike on May 10, 2007 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought he was a GREAT pitcher?

according to you, so wouldn't that also classify him as an 'Ace' in the true sense of the word?

by DTJchris on May 10, 2007 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed Mike

Well put though I would quibble with Z not being a true ace. It may not look like it right now but the guy had a 16-7 record last year (.696 winning percentage) for a team that lost 97 games (.401 winning percentage). Not too many guys in the league could do that. You are absolutely right when you say that even the best pitchers go through periods of struggle. For instance, Roy Halladay has been knocked around pretty good in his last two starts. I doubt Blue Jay fans want to run him out of town though, I bet they appreciate what they've got and realize that they'd be a worse team if he went somewhere else. I wish Cub fans would realize that about Z. He'll get it figured out and when he does this team is going to be tough to beat on the days he's pitching.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not a "true" ace

I've been saying this for a couple years now and he's done absolutely nothing to this point this year to change that.

If anything, he's reinforced my opinion that he's not a true ace. I've always said he's just too inconsistent not only from start to start, but from inning to inning. You can not have that and expect to be your team's ace.

Zambrano still has a long ways to go and a lot of maturing to do, for me to even consider him a "true" ace.

"What's it all about? Booze, Broads and bullshit." Harry Caray

by lemon17pie on May 11, 2007 6:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maddux

Maddux had horrible full halfs of seasons for several years so I guess he wasn't any good either.

Derrek Lee would beat Chuck Norris.

by kerrysotherwife on May 11, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Please do me a favor

and never compare Maddux to Zambrano ever again please. That's just ridiculous.

Besiedes the fact that you're completely and utterly dead wrong.

"What's it all about? Booze, Broads and bullshit." Harry Caray

by lemon17pie on May 11, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Z has been in slow decline since 05

If you really look at Z's last 40 or so starts, he has become a less effective pitcher over a little more than a year.

His ERA has climbed, and his K/Walk ratio has worsened, two critical signs of concern. You would think at 26, he would be improving, but his best years were clearly 04 and 05, when he had some real dominant games he pitched.

"Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year" - Sparky Anderson

by MPH73 on May 10, 2007 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitchers

don't generally hit their peak years until around age 27 or after. Expecting that Z's best years are far behind him at age 26 is wrong, if not downright foolish.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a crappy excuse.

He is supposed to be a professional and is already making millions of dollars. Pitch the damn ball and the money will work itself out. I don't see Buerhle having problems without an extension.

I've made it clear before, but if we can get a lot in exchange for Zambrano (and it would have to be a lot) then I'd do it in a second. I just doubt any team would give up too much to get him.

by nickler on May 10, 2007 12:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Giants

just spent something like $126 million dollars on Barry Zito. Z is a much better pitcher than Zito. Most teams would give their left arms for a guy like Z. I think that says a lot about whether we should keep him or not.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

...I could maybe see the contract thing as being a minor contributing factor to Big Z's foibles, but I can't believe it's the primary cause.

I have to believe that, once a guy steps out on the field, his only focus must be on doing whatever he can to help his team win the game. And I think Z is trying to do that.

I'd also point out that Big Z has a history of slow starts and that, compared with last year, he's actually doing better in terms of wins.

Brew Crew: We are coming for you.

by dat cubfan daver on May 10, 2007 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well listen..

friend. You're not the only person to wonder whether money issues are affecting his performance. If you've got a subscription to ESPN.com, Buster Olney touches on much the same thing today in his daily blog. It's a fair question.

What's not fair is to put this on the Cubs front office. This is not a baseball issue. This is about whether the tentative owner will accept a significant new long-term liability entry on the balance sheet. The only one who decides that is Zell. Or his bankers, as the case may be. And being mindful of the mountain of financial and legal issues being handled at the moment, this is not critical. Give them till the end of the month before we start panicking.

by Damen Jackson on May 10, 2007 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

If Z ends up leaving it won't be a baseball decision, it will be a business decision. There is no good baseball reason for letting a guy like Z walk, especially not when you could sign him for "only" five years and "only" $85 million in todays market.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"only" 5 years?

5 years is a huge risk with a pitcher like Zambrano. He's only 26 and already has put a lot of wear and tear on his arm. You can't even compare Zito and Zambrano as far as length of contracts, because Zito and Zambrano are 2 completely different type of pitchers, with Zambrano obviously being a power pitcher and Zito being a change of speeds type pitcher.

No team will sign Zambrano to a deal longer than 5. None.

"What's it all about? Booze, Broads and bullshit." Harry Caray

by lemon17pie on May 11, 2007 7:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crappy excuse maybe but...

I still think you sign him because he is a historically great, solid workhorse that will anchor our previously ailing rotation.

MMMMM...Hebrew National

by Kinky Reggae on May 10, 2007 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

bingo

You sign him because he's a good pitcher.

Faith Plus One - Contributing Editor -http://www.inaleagueofherown.com

by Faith plus 1 on May 10, 2007 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Workhorse

If he's injured, which looks at least possible, he can't be signed to a long-term deal because it would be a disaster. Carlos is the last guy in the world to admit he's hurt, so the Cubs might need to strap him to a lie-detector to get the truth. Carlos is making $13MM this year, and most guys tend to perform better in a contract year. He needs to put up or shut up.

RICK SCHWAB!

by ExNorthsider on May 10, 2007 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where to start.....

First of all, what makes you think that it's possible that he's hurt? Anything besides his era?

It would be a disaster to sign him long term if he's hurt? Really? So if we find out that he has a mild forearm strain, he misses one start and then comes back pitching great like he's shown he can the last 5 years we would have avoided disaster by not signing him at a hometown discount?

Also, the playing better in a contract year thing has been studied and more or less disproven. No doubt it has an effect on some players one way or the other but you can't say that most do better in a contract year.

I know Cub fans are passionate and emotional but I wish more would post with their head and not the heart on their sleeve.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reason to believe Zambrano could be hurt...

....I've speculated here and other places that the number one sign of a Pitcher pitching with pain is a lower arm angle. That is exactly what Zambrano has consistently done this year.

Now, I am not at all saying that he is pitching in pain, just pointing out that that is a big indicator and sign for coaches.

Having said that, I don't think Zambrano with everything he has to lose by pitching through pain and likewise for the Cubs, is pitching in pain.

"What's it all about? Booze, Broads and bullshit." Harry Caray

by lemon17pie on May 11, 2007 7:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are...

... only two possible explanations for the lower arm angle:

Bad mechanics
Injury

Let's hope it's #1, which can be fixed relatively easily.

I don't think it's injury, because Z's velocity has not decreased, just his location.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 11, 2007 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i posted this in another Z thread

but essentially i'll just post a smaller version again... (also velocity isnt the primary indicator of a latent injury, location is (see Anibal Sanchez and BJ Ryan this year as prime examples) Now Z's location has dropped consistently for 2 years which makes me think the injury isnt "arm-related" but BACK-RELATED, the reason being is he's not driving through the ball. I dont know where you can find old tape on Z but he used to make his back almost perpendicular to his legs when he finished off a pitch, now he's more at a 45 degree angle, because his back isnt flexible enough

this is causing his ball to tail and rise rather than tail and sink, which is resulting in more FLY BALLS than GROUND BALLS, which along with the rising BB Rate is as big a concern as any

by DartmouthCubsFan on May 11, 2007 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry velocity HAS decreased

by oldtimer on May 11, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It has?

He was throwing consistently at 94 yesterday.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on May 11, 2007 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that is not 99 98 97 or 96 which he frequently hit

in the past. When Jason Schmidt a few years ago lost 3-5 mph all the trouble continued.

by oldtimer on May 11, 2007 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

94 out of the strike zone big time. He has lost

something and I find it strange that you don't remember what his stuff use to be like. He use to freeze guys with his fastball in the upper 90's. That is a big difference. Very few starters can hit 99. He use to!!

by oldtimer on May 11, 2007 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you guys

ARE right. he Is mentally weak. His emotions run very high in every start, so why would you give him more emotions than he already does. Sign him already and let him move on.

by luv4cubs2 on May 10, 2007 1:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If that is his problem...

let him walk. What happens if they sign him to a long deal and then his mental state doesn't let him concentrate because he is too comfortable?

Sorry I disagree with you. This isn't like a factory worker who feels pressure that he will lose his job and not be able to feed his family. Zambrano will get his money one way or another from the Cubs or another team.

Most players have contract years where they up to the impeding payday. I haven't heard too many players who play down in their contract year.

by rlpete on May 10, 2007 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

why

would u let him walk? Trade him in July.

by luv4cubs2 on May 10, 2007 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be ok too

My point was that if this contract discussion is too much for him and his fragile psyche then I wouldn't sign him.

by rlpete on May 10, 2007 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not going to happen

Jim Hendry is a lameduck GM who is only concerned with the short-term. Chances are good that he gets whacked just as soon as a new owner is named and put in place. Unless of course the Cubs win real big in 2007. NO WAY he trades Z under these circumstances. Z will end up filing for free agency and stands a good chance of walking away next winter.

Ah, come on guys... It's so simple. Maybe you need a refresher course. Hey! It's all ball bearings nowadays. ...

by BlueMike on May 10, 2007 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to agree with you again

If whatever is holding up the signing doesn't get resolved pretty soon I think there is a very good chance Z leaves at the end of the year. Whatever the circumstance, contract year, lame duck GM, doesn't matter. Z has stated he wants a contract and will leave if he doesn't get one and I think he has too much pride to contradict himself much further. He's already extended his deadline, I'm sure he understand the Cubs ownership situation but I doubt he'll completely compromise himself because of it.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

im suprised no one has made a roid claim

seems the way this board is rolling

One of Us!One Of Us!

by HerrProf on May 10, 2007 4:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You mean..

Boers and Bernstein on the Score haven't made that claim yet?

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on May 11, 2007 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

AAAARGHH!!

We just lost to the f*$#@%ing Pirates... THE PIRATES... AGAIN. With Z pitching.

6 starts... and still unimpressive. This is ridiculous. The man is supposed to be our ace. Right now I thank goodness Hendry had the good sense to get Lilly and Wang or else our season would already be down the toilet.

Chien Minh Wang just gave up 14 runs to the Rangers. I really wish the management would explore a trade of these two, and see if we can get a couple of prospects in the deal as well. I think the change in scenery would help Wang, and I think the prospects would be of great benefit in the long term. And I think he'll do as good as Zambrano this year.

by nickler on May 10, 2007 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They'd have to be VERY good prospects

in the neighborhood of Phillip Hughes. Wang is not in Z's league. His stats aren't great. He won 19 games last year...... for the Yankees. Z could have won 25 for them.

by pageian on May 11, 2007 6:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've been saying here on BCB

for weeks to trade Z, and I had also been thinking that Hughes would be an interesting trade. I think Steinbrenner would jump at the chance, too.

I'm not schooled on Hughes, other than to say I've heard he's excellent and has an unlimited ceiling. But would an unproven rookie - even someone like Hughes - be enough for Z? I'd like to think we could get another player, too.

And I think getting something for Z would help our club immensely.

"Mine, mine, says the squirrel to the transformer, unclear on the capacities of electricity." -Dean Young

by Kegler on May 11, 2007 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think he would........

n/t.

RAMIREZ!! PRIOR!!

by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 11, 2007 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

big mistake

if we dont sign zambrano it will be a huge huge (maddux) like mistake.i know a another team that is starved for pitching and can hand out any amount of blank checks they choose. this team is also in the NL which big Z says he will stay because he loves to hit. if this team signed big z it qould be a major major blow to the cubs. who is this team you ask? the cardinals! how well would big z look in red and white. ughhh i dont wanna find out--sign him

Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on May 10, 2007 6:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"(maddux) like"

Comparing Z to Maddux is absurd. There simply is no comparison. Zambrano has been the backbone of the Cubs staff for three years now and what has he given us? His best was a 15 win season. We love him because of his emotional instability but, I'm afraid, that will be his undoing. If he hasn't learned to control himself by now I dare say he never will.

Additionally, what ever happened to the norm about overachieving during a contract year. To sign Z to big money after the start he's had is insane. Perhaps he'll settle down and finish with a decent season but will it really be worth the kind of money he's looking for. I almost hate to say it, but I think Z can be used to improve the team through a mid-season trade to someone. Do you really want these sorry early season starts for another 5-7 years for the kind of money it will cost. Hendry giving him his wishes is just plain irresponsible.

And so it goes.

by Luigi on May 10, 2007 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

He's given us 16 wins. Regardless, that's not worthy of the money he's seeking, especially just to keep him out of a Cardinals uniform.

And so it goes.

by Luigi on May 10, 2007 8:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Facts

Maddux was the backbone of the Cubs staff and gave us 20 wins once. And the year we won the division he won 2nd most to Bielecki and blew chunks in the playoffs.

He also had a horrible half of a season every year between 88 and 91.

I know facts are standing in the way of all this hate but these are the facts.

Derrek Lee would beat Chuck Norris.

by kerrysotherwife on May 11, 2007 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

now with the zambrano bashing you guys have done who will we replace him with??? hate to tell ya but pithcers like big z dont come around often. when they do their respective teams dont let them walk if they can afford the asking price and i gotta believe the cubs can. a 16 win season on a shitty team is a hell of a season. from time to time players are slump.

Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on May 10, 2007 11:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Crazy Horse Z

The guy on the other thread who came up with the nickname hit the nail on the head. It is the best nickname in sports and I hope it takes off like wildfire. In fact, I might go buy my 8 year old a Cub jersey with the name Crazy Horse printed on back.

Ah, come on guys... It's so simple. Maybe you need a refresher course. Hey! It's all ball bearings nowadays. ...

by BlueMike on May 11, 2007 8:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That is

just a perfect nickname! And place me firly on the side that says Zambrano's upcoming contract negotiations are being negatively affected by his current level of performance.

I would trade him to the Yankees for Wang and some outfielder who can catch a baseball.

"I lof to hit de home ron."

by Tekboy on May 11, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs