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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

A Productive Day

Today, I accomplished a few things, most notably getting a new battery for my watch, which died yesterday. I was told by the watch repair person that my watch, a Casio DW-6100 (I have the black version) was, as that link indicates, originally issued in 1992. I'd never replaced the battery before. Pretty good for fifteen years, although I don't think I've had it quite that long.

That's pretty irrelevant, and a real stretch to say that's the sort of day the Cubs had too, winning two games in the stretch of a little over four hours of baseball time this afternoon -- first, finishing yesterday's suspended game, an 8-6 win over the Pirates (and the headline on that "recap" doesn't reflect the additional runs that were scored, but it says "8 innings", when the game was suspended in the 7th. So go figure.), and then dispatching the Pirates 7-1 in the regular afternoon game.

So the Cubs, once 7-13, have now won five of their last six and at last appear to be playing the way some of us, me in particular, thought they could:

  • Jason Marquis had yet another solid outing, and today, walked no one and struck out five, for those of you who were complaining about his BB/K ratio; he also allowed only four hits in eight innings, improving his WHIP to a ridiculous 1.034 and his ERA to 2.09. Is this likely to continue? No, but it's a damn good start. Incidentally, he's now won four games, leading the staff, and has sixty career wins, now in seventh place all-time among Jewish pitchers (ahead of him: Kenny Holtzman, Sandy Koufax, Steve Stone, Dave Roberts, Barney Pelty and Erskine Mayer, next on the list with 91, although that number can't be reached for probably at least two more years).
  • Derrek Lee reached base in his 26th consecutive game and doubled again; that's 8 straight games with doubles. He's hitting .410 and has 17 doubles already.
  • Ryan Theriot continued his hot hitting, going 3-for-4 with three runs scored and 2 RBI.
  • Alfonso Soriano, homerless in April, has now homered in each of the first two May games.
It's all good. This is the first series win since the first weekend of the season in Milwaukee, nearly a month ago, and gives the ballclub good momentum coming into a homestand against a pretty mediocre-to-poor Nationals club, and these same Pirates.

All of that said, I wanted to call your attention to this Jeff Passan column at Yahoo today. Passan, like me (and most of you), thinks MLB's arcane blackout rules are, rather than "protecting" territories, simply pissing fans off, and we all discussed this last All-Star break.

Today's Passan column says that the blackouts are going to be a main topic of discussion at the owners' executive council meeting in New York two weeks from today:

MLB president Bob DuPuy plans to officially address the blackout troubles in front of the sport's powerful executive council two weeks from today at the quarterly owners meetings in New York. How seriously the eight-man council treats the concerns will go a long way toward proving whether baseball is serious about rewriting its archaic rules or simply raising the issue to muzzle all of the fans who are not allowed to buy the product baseball is selling.

Sound familiar? Throughout spring training, when it seemed as though the Extra Innings package would be offered only on DirecTV, commissioner Bud Selig showed a haughty disregard for the fans, mocking the thousands of cable customers orphaned by the league's proposed money-grabbing exclusive deal. In the end, MLB got its promise from cable companies that they would launch the Baseball Channel in 2009, and the majority of fans now have access to every game, every night.

Well, in theory at least. The reality is much different. Some areas are blacked out from 40 percent of the games on a full schedule. No one in Iowa can watch the Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Royals, Twins and White Sox. Las Vegas has its own hexagon of darkness with the A's, Angels, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants and Padres.

(I particularly like that phrase: "hexagon of darkness". Sounds like something you'll see in the new Spider-Man movie.)

Living in the town where my team is located, I don't have this problem, as all the Cubs' televised games are available to me. But I know many of you are scattered all over the country and, in fact, in other countries than the USA, and you are affected by the very blackouts noted in Passan's quote above.

It's time for MLB to get its head out of the 1950's and realize that its fans are everywhere, and in order for it to market itself as effectively as, for example, the NFL does, the answer is very simple:

If you want to watch a baseball game -- ANY game -- and are willing to pay the asking price, you should be able to do so. Period. No ifs, ands, or buts, no matter what your zip code or IP address is.

That's not too hard to understand; I trust everyone here does.

Now let's see if the MLB suits in New York can be made to see the light.

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Let me just say...
 as someone who watched the games that both were extremely well played. My only issue is that the Cubs continue to have difficulty moving runners along, which leads me to believe that their close game problems are going to continue for some time.

by Damen Jackson on May 2, 2007 5:12 PM CDT reply actions  

The Cubs...
... had a lot of baserunners in the regular game (nine hits, seven walks). They did leave nine on base, which ordinarily would be alarming. But seven runs scored is going to win you most of the games you play.

More consistency along the lines of the last few days would help.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2007 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

yes...
i don't see why the cubs keep trying to steal third but rarely try to steal second, especially since they rarely score a run on a sac fly or infield groudout; most of the time they score on hits and thus would probably score from second base anyway.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 2, 2007 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes
And once again... Bob Denier's special base-running clinic is really doing wonders for this team.
TheRiot at leadoff please!

by SackMan on May 2, 2007 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

When you get 2 runs on 0 hits
like the Cubs did today, on 4 walks and a HBP, you're going to leave a few men on base.

by ChipSet on May 2, 2007 9:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know the Cubs won both games
They did not play particularly well during last nights portion of the first game. They won after an outburst of offence in the seventh inning, but before that outburst it was one of the Cubs not-so-well-played games. Check the game diary up until the seventh inning.
"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on May 2, 2007 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

The Cubs actually
won their last series against the Cardinals.

by Oscarson1 on May 2, 2007 5:15 PM CDT reply actions  

<smacking forehead>
Yes, they did. It only seemed that long since they'd won one.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 2, 2007 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Although it's great news...
 that the blackout rules are coming into question, I refuse to be happy about this until something is actually done.  I know I'm beating a dead horse, but I simply can't understand how MLB could like their blackout rules.  It simply escapes me what the logic is.

Back to the Cubs though, I'm going to hold off on getting excited until I see some consistent hitting with RISP (and RISP with 2 outs).  The starting pitching has been absolutely unreal so far, which clearly means it's due to average out and come back to earth.  But it really is interesting looking at the runs scored/allowed in the national league.  This team should be better.  But unfortunately, "should be better" doesn't win you close ballgames.  Here's to hoping the bats stay hot and the pitching doesn't let up!

2007 Badger Football - 1-0 every week...

by Schwa on May 2, 2007 5:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Okay...
....not to rain on your comment (hey, I understand being frustrated and wanting to write something) but here's a couple key stats for you, courtesy of ESPN.com:
  •  Cubs are hitting .282 with RISP, which is second place in the NL (just .002 behind league leader Florida).
  •  Cubs have an OPS of .784 with RISP, which is 3rd in the NL (behind Atlanta at .873 and Florida at .825)
  •  With RISP and 2 outs, the Cubs are batting .264, which is 3rd in the NL.
  •  With RISP and 2 outs, the Cubs have an OPS of .754, which is 6th in the NL.
What do those stats tell you? Well, the Cubs ARE getting timely hitting with RISP, and RISP with 2 outs.  The Cubs are likely, however not walking in those situations (hence the lower OPS numbers), or are not hitting with as much power as we'd like (the power outage being team wide until recently).

The Cubs are also 4th in the NL in team BA (.271), and sixth in the NL in team OPS (.755).  

Thus, I don't think the problem with the Cubs is their situational hitting, at least yet. In fact, I'd argue that aside from a statistically improbable stretch of going 0-6 in 1 run games, this Cubs team hasn't had MANY problems.

by Chadnudj on May 2, 2007 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

where are the stats....
on their efficiency rate at getting a runner in from third base with less than two outs? granted, sometimes they score these guys with hits; in fact sometimes they get a guy on third with no outs, fail to get him in via the sac fly, etc., then get the clutch hit. ok. but situational hitting is a hell of a lot more than driving in runs with clutch hits; it's the little things: bunting, moving a runner over, hitting behind the runner, getting sac flys, grounding the ball to the right side with the man on third and less than two outs.

with that stuff, this team is terrible, as it was under dusty.

I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 2, 2007 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wow...
...leave it to a Cub fan to look for the cloud on a sunny day.

Look, if you want to find me statistics that say we're terrible at scoring a runner on third with less than two outs, I'll be happy to listen and admit that the Cubs have a problem.  Show me that we lag behind the league in "productive" outs (i.e. sacrifices, moving runners along, etc.), and I'd be very interested.

But my point was (and is) that it's slightly disingenuous to say the Cubs are failing in "clutch" or "situational" hitting scenarios when they're amongst the top of the National League with runners in scoring position (RISP) or RISP with two outs.

But to say, without any evidence whatsoever, that "this team is terrible" at "bunting, moving a runner over, hitting behind the runner, getting sac flys, grounding the ball to the right side with the man on third and less than two outs" is, to me at least, unsupported without a little more proof or statistical evidence (particularly given that the Cubs seem to be excelling in RISP situations compared to the rest of the NL this season)

by Chadnudj on May 2, 2007 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

hey, i've been absolutely giddy today...
no clouds. my only point is that there is a big difference between "clutch" hitting and "situational" hitting, even though clutch hitting might figure into the so-called situational bit. i don't have the stats; i'm not good with stats; i don't even know if they have stats on productive outs, but they probably do. however, i follow every game closely, and i am confident in saying this club has to get better at bringing in a runner from 3rd base and less than two outs without getting a clutch hit in order to win consistently and in order to improve the record in close games.

we waste a lot of runs, and it drives me mad. with all the doubles the cubs get (often to lead off an inning), we shouldn't always have to rely on a clutch hit in order to score. a simple sac bunt or grounder to the right side, moving the runner to third, then a sac fly or little grounder to right side brings that run in--fundamental.

i really like what i am seeing from this club right now. i'm excited as hell. but, i still think this offense is inefficient. i also think a major reason why they are 6-0 in 1 run ballgames has to do with a failure in the area of situational hitting.

then again, i really focus on it, so i probably forget their successes.

I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

yeah, 6-0 would be nice...
backwards. it's 1 in the morning.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

I dunno...
Some of the outings by the bullpen haven't helped either.  Situational pitching problems?
"Not true at all. Vaseline is manufactured right here in the United States." - Don Sutton, about the rumors that he uses a foreign substance on the ball

by Orangeman94 on May 3, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Interestingly though....
....as I continued to play around with the ESPN stats, where the Cubs have failed in their games this season is in innings 7+.  Looking at those stats, the Cubs are batting a pitiful .234 (14th in the NL) with an OPS of just .642 (13th in the NL).

So while the Cubs overall are hitting with RISP and RISP with 2 out, where they are NOT producing is just in innings 7+ generally.  So maybe a better way to make your argument is that you'd like to see the Cubs perform better in the late innings.....

by Chadnudj on May 2, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Makes sense-
how many games have they jumped out to a lead and then just seemed to grind to a halt? That stat is indicative of what's been going on.

That's why it was nice to see them keep going late into games the last couple of days.

If it looks like horseshit and smells like horseshit, it's probaby horseshit- Sparky Lyle

by tommy veryzer on May 2, 2007 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

You made fair points.
The late game situational hitting is what has been bothering me.  I should have made that clear in my original comment.  But at the same time, you can show me all of those RISP statistics and what not, but I keep looking at that 0-6 in one run game stat.  That is unacceptable.
2007 Badger Football - 1-0 every week...

by Schwa on May 2, 2007 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree...
...to a point. 0-6 IS VERY unacceptable in 1-run ballgames.

But if you look at the history of baseball, baseball statistics, etc., over a large and significant sample size, 1-run games are almost entirely the product of luck.  The best teams and the worst teams all tend towards being .500 in 1-run games.

Now, is that to say that the Cubs will go 6-0 for their next run of 1-run games? No.  But, by the end of the season, the odds are that the Cubs SHOULD approach .500 in these games (since they're based historically almost entirely on luck), meaning that for the 26 games we've played so far, our record is statistically speaking "unrepresentative" since it is highly unlikely that we will continue to be 0-6 (or winless) in 1-run games.

The idea, thus, is that this 26 game sample so far this season is not representative of what the Cubs are likely to achieve over the course of the whole season going forward.  So to say that we're "doomed" or in "trouble" because we're 12-14 on May 2nd after going 0-6 in 1-run games during that stretch is slightly hyperbolic, particularly when our "Pythagorean" record (which historically has proven more accurate, being a record based on runs scored squared divided by runs scored squared plus runs against squared) after 26 games is 16-10, not the 12-14 we actually are....in other words, within a game of what we would have been (15-11) if we had been .500 (as luck would predict) over those 1-run games.

by Chadnudj on May 2, 2007 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

but, executing the sac bunts and sac flies
and scoring runs without getting hits can help put the luck on your side, wouldn't you agree?

and it is an area where they can get better, and it shouldn't take a lot of work. no trades or anything. just focus, have a good approach, execute, get an rbi.

I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yes
I absolutely agree with that.  It is an area in which we can and should get a lot better.

I'm just not sure that the Cubs are "lagging" behind other teams in this respect.  I think that perhaps the steroids/power era that we're in (or coming out of, depending on who you ask) didn't ask players to execute these fundamentals, preferring power hitting to sacrifices/hitting behind the runner/bunting etc.

Perhaps the problem isn't that the Cubs are much worse at this than other teams, but that the whole LEAGUE is worse at this than they used to be (i.e. prior to 1998), and we're just noticing it in the Cubs because they're the team we watch.

by Chadnudj on May 3, 2007 8:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

i also happen to watch all the cardinals games...
since i get them...and they have been much better at this kind of thing (not to mention at defending sac bunts, etc.), although this year they have not been getting the job jone either.

i was hoping it was a dusty baker problem and that lou would fix it. actually, i am still hoping and think it will get better.

I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agreed about the 2 Outs stuff
but, WOW, what a 2 out rally in Pittsburgh in the 7th!  I will remember that all season.  I believe it was 2 outs, down 5-2, single by Izturis, double by Murton scoring Izturis (5-3), double by Soriano scoring Murton (5-4), HR by Floyd (6-5).  All with 2 outs and rain and lightening threatening!  That was incredible.

by utcubby on May 3, 2007 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

yep, best half inning all year i think...
it felt like the bottom of the ninth, 2 outs. the second best half inning was in st.louis, 7 runs i think; that was pretty good too.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Big Z has a big start
on Friday. It would be nice to see him pick up from last Saturday and throw another strong game.

I'd like to get excited, and it was a good day, but these games coming up against the Nats at home are the ones the Cubs tend to flat line in. A 5-1 or 4-2 homestand would help wash that taste out of the mouth...........

If it looks like horseshit and smells like horseshit, it's probaby horseshit- Sparky Lyle

by tommy veryzer on May 2, 2007 5:25 PM CDT reply actions  

Excellent column on EI/MLBTV..
..by Jeff Passan.  The blackout rules have discouraged me personally from keeping mlbtv (I did 2 of the trials).  

You would just have to think that all of the exclusive broadcasters like WGN/YES/TBS, etc.. would be presumably loosing advertising dollars with fewer eyes watching.  

Chicks dig the long ball

by Will23 on May 2, 2007 6:45 PM CDT reply actions  

We won 2 games in one day
Holy crap. I have to mark this on my calendar.
TheRiot at leadoff please!

by SackMan on May 2, 2007 7:03 PM CDT reply actions  

The team's
W-L record is finally creeping up to where it should be based on their production and good pitching. If they had won just 3 of the 6 1-run games they've lost, they'd be 15-11, much closer to their expected winning percentage. The odds of going 0-fer in games like that is low; chalk it up to bad luck.

The Cubs have the best team in the division, and despite the Brewers feasting on the grief-stricken Cardinals this week, by June 1st, I predict the Cubs and Brewcrew will be in a neck and neck battle for first.

"Ronny Cedeno seems like the type of guy who could run over himself with his own car.." Earth2Sean

by Matt Allison on May 2, 2007 7:04 PM CDT reply actions  

I hope your're right
The Cubs & Brewers will be playing many of the same teams this month: Nationals, Pirates, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies and the Marlins.

Clearly, if the Cubs are to be "neck and neck" in a battle for first they have to win at least 5 more games from the very same teams.

I think it's possible!

by JFCubFan on May 2, 2007 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Gotta give Hendry some props...
The pickups of Lilly, Marquis, Soriano, and DeRosa are looking good.  

The Cubs have outscored their opponents 122 to 97 now.

SORIANO! YESSSSSSSS! JIMBO!!!

by CubFaninCA on May 2, 2007 7:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Even better actually...
127-98, with the win in "game 2" today.  When we start winning the close ones, we're going to look a lot better.

Starting off so poorly in close games has dug us a hole, but we're certainly not dead in the water.  We just need to build on the offensive outburst and continue this streak of better performances of late.

by SouthernCub on May 2, 2007 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

floyd as well.
and i'm even warming to ward.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 2, 2007 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Me too actually....
I'm warming up to Ward too since he keeps getting on base.  For some reason pitchers are scared of him and keep walking him... don't quite understand why but I'll take it!
"Winning is the greatest marketing idea of all time." --Cubs President John McDonough

by cubbieblue on May 2, 2007 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

BUT the
pickup of WARD, Itz-TURD-is, and pushing of Cedeno is really BAD.
Who Exactly Is Adam Haluska, and Should We Care?

by TheEman on May 2, 2007 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm going to take
the the games today for what they were...wins. They were fun to watch and I hope they can continue to play well.
TheEman is jealous of my sigs.

by sue369 on May 2, 2007 7:59 PM CDT reply actions  

errrrrr......
i live in oklahoma and recently bought the mlb extra innings deal on my digital cable. not real sure if it was really worth my money. although i got 2/3 of the pirates series i dont understand why i didnt get the other. fox screwed me like alot of others saturday. god i hope somethings done i shelled the 160 bux out for the xtra innings deal. great great game today other than soriaon's bonehead baserunning. the riot (my favorite) was a catalyst once again. i absolutely love watching batters take crap pitches for balls. what was it the 5th inning when marquis took a 1 out walk that lead to another walk and another walk and floyd getting plunked? lead to 2 runs. we have to continue this type of hitting if were gonna win period!!! i venture to say over 1/2 of the starters pitch the exact same way snell did today. nibble nibble nibble strike nibble nibble strike. hell make em throw a pitch to hit and raise that pitch count until he does. patience is the key to winning ballgames. go cubbies
Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on May 2, 2007 8:05 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm in Tulsa
I'm using mlb.tv for games not on local TV.  The only time I get screwed is if they are playing the Cards or Rangers.  The Cards are usually on regular TV anyway unless it is Saturday and FOX has us by the throat.

by wrigley on May 2, 2007 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

Fox will always pick...
The Red Sox-Yankee game over Cubs-Cards, but we run a close second.  I got screwed on Sat. too (in Texas).  

And, I left my laptop at work (I have MLB TV + MLB Extra Innings), so no game on the computer.  For some reason, I cannot get MLB TV to work on my wife's IMac (but the commercials do).

by utcubby on May 3, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

You didn't get to see
the Monday Cubs/Pirates game because Extra Innings does not carry over-the-air feeds.  (Why?  I don't know.  They manage to get over-the-air feeds on MLB.tv.  This leads me to believe it's a legal/economic reason and not a technical one.)  Anyway, the Pirates didn't televise the game at all on Monday and the Cubs were on WCIU.  Therefore, the game wasn't carried on EI.

by Josh Timmers on May 3, 2007 1:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Monday game
I saw it on E1 with a Pirate feed. However, the transmission was terrible and actually froze up about the 7th inning.
Players win awards but teams win championships.

by tharr on May 3, 2007 3:18 AM CDT up reply actions  

Kansasian
Wherever you are, I am 40% of the way towards my bet. I said by Sunday we would be 15 - 14. Well, The Nationals stand in my way, and if we cannot handle The Nationals we have far greater problems. Although, the one game that worries me is Shawn Hill pitching for them on Sunday, he is supposed to be the real deal. But at the same time, Ian Snell, as Bob Brenly reminded us many times is supposed to be the next Pedro, was handled nicely.

Lets hope for above 500 by Sunday. Get to writing that AJ essay.

by louslovechild on May 2, 2007 8:29 PM CDT reply actions  

Lol...
I'm here...and am predicting a 2-3 series with the Nats...just one game down to be making YOU write that essay. Get workin'...

(funny that I am one of the most optimistic on this site yet bet against the Cubs)

MARQUIS! YES, MARQUIS!

by thekansasian on May 3, 2007 1:24 AM CDT up reply actions  

Jeff Passan
He's a pretty good writer I find myself reading his articles quite a bit, and of course he nails this one. While I'm on the Sports writers topic I couldn't help but notice Dayn Perry was right in his prediction that Soriano would bust out of his slump. The ball he hit in the 9th almost left the yard as well.
Len Kasper Sucks!

by TheRamZamDLEE on May 2, 2007 9:49 PM CDT reply actions  

Yup!
I was at the game and we all thought it would leave.  Too bad the right field was is super tall...
"Winning is the greatest marketing idea of all time." --Cubs President John McDonough

by cubbieblue on May 2, 2007 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah, too bad, really close. could have 3.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

not to mention, he just missed one....
the night before, in center. he even posed. actually, i wish he would just hustle out of the box now that i think of it.
I don't care about a world series, just be competitive thru September.

by buckmulligan on May 3, 2007 1:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

What I want to know
is where are all the idiots who thought that Izturis was a "great" pickup for the Cubs and that he was a "magician" with the glove.

Show yourselves and publicly repent.

by Jhoratio on May 2, 2007 10:43 PM CDT reply actions  

I think...
... at least one of them has, in another thread.

There's no need to call them "idiots", or any other name. That has no place here.

Thanks.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 3:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

LOL
Yes, they were. Thank you!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe the luck is changing.
Under the old rules we lose the first game because the score would have reverted back.

Maybe our luck is changing.

If your Dad buys part of the team do you get to shower with the players?

by kerrysotherwife on May 2, 2007 11:04 PM CDT reply actions  

For the first time all year
I thought the lineup worked in the last two games.  If Theriot can continue hitting, we can be 7 or 8 deep in terms of hitters who scare pitchers.  Even if they don't  always hit them, that will tend to wear out pitchers.  Soriano isn't my idea of a leadoff hitter, but it's nice to have him follow a PH late in the game.

I was not a believer in Theriot in the spring--and I'm still not sure he can play SS regularly--but he's making a big difference.  He and Marquis are the biggest surprises for me so far; Howry and Eyre the biggest disappointments.  I liked the fact that Lou gave Eyre an out today.  Need to get him turned around.

by bleacher on May 3, 2007 12:17 AM CDT reply actions  

Best situation
  1.  Play Ryan Theriot a couple days at shortstop and a couple days at 2nd.  
  2.  Play Mark DeRosa a couple days at 2nd and make him the right handed hitting platoon mate in right field.  
  3.  Play Cesar Izturis a couple days at shortstop.
Mark Prior sleeps with the fish.

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

We need
To get rid of Jones and one of Izturis and Cedeno.

I'd keep Izturis because I think he despite his errors is the stronger defender and I think he has more bat potential.

If your Dad buys part of the team do you get to shower with the players?

by kerrysotherwife on May 3, 2007 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

Izturis and his .203 BA
have got to go.
Faith Plus One - Contributing Editor -http://www.inaleagueofherown.com

by Faith plus 1 on May 3, 2007 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Izturis
he's been awful so far, I'll grant you. But it's still early to give up on any player just because they had a bad April. I don't have high hopes for him getting much better, however.

On May 20, 1980, George Brett's average was .247. He finished the year at .390.

Of course, if Izturis hits .390, the earth will probably stop rotating.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on May 3, 2007 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

re: Izturis
If Izzy hits .390, the earth will not only stop rotating, it will start spinning backward.

This could actually be a good thing as it would enable the Cubs to go back in time and not trade Maddux for Izturis in the first place.

"When we start hitting with a little more consistency, you'll see us start winning more baseball games." ~ Lou Piniella, 4/30/07

by daver on May 3, 2007 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh that's not good enough?
I thought his 6 errors thus far would be as well....oh well how about his .254 OBP? Aw hell, how about his lifetime .294 OBP?

Waste of roster space, it's a joke how he's been given THIS much time.

Even in his career year, his best year, whatever the hell you want to call it his OBP was .330, which to be frank, would be league average at best.

Defensive Wizard or whatever the hell he is.

Faith Plus One - Contributing Editor -http://www.inaleagueofherown.com

by Faith plus 1 on May 3, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

re: Best situation
I like your first two points a lot, though would you platoon DeRosa with Jones or Floyd (or both)? Are you presuming Pie will remain in center?

The third point I'm not so sure about. On the one hand, it would make sense to take Izzy out of the offensive equation and rely on him only as a defensive replacement. But his incessant errors have conveniently scuttled this strategy. (Coincidence?)

"When we start hitting with a little more consistency, you'll see us start winning more baseball games." ~ Lou Piniella, 4/30/07

by daver on May 3, 2007 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

4 E-6s by my count
So far.  I think he is still a good defensive sub but that's it.  I like Theriot at SS.  Send Cedeno back to AAA.  

If we could only trade J Jones, we would be set, but no one is interested.  Otherwise, I like Murton/Floyd in RF with D Ward on the bench for pinch hitting.

by utcubby on May 3, 2007 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Am I the only one...
who thinks DeRosa belongs no where near the outfield?  He's as bad as Theriot out there.
"Not true at all. Vaseline is manufactured right here in the United States." - Don Sutton, about the rumors that he uses a foreign substance on the ball

by Orangeman94 on May 3, 2007 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Milwaukee is for real
The Brewers are a good ballclub.  They have good starting pitching, a vastly improved bullpen and an envious group of gifted young hitters sprinkled around a quality veteran cast.  I've caught a few of their games and they have impressed me.  Hopefully the Cubs are in a position to battle.  
Mark Prior sleeps with the fish.

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 9:09 AM CDT reply actions  

The Brewers are good, I grant you that.
I'm not sure they can hold this up for an entire season, especially if yesterday's injury to Capuano proves serious.

But in the NL Central, it's (almost) anyone's division to take.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Milwaukee does look tough...
...should be a good race...Cubs v. Brewers could be an intense rivalry this season.

by DudeVf11 on May 3, 2007 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Somewhere
Bud Selig is smiling. Seriously, I could see the Cubs - Brewers games becoming extremely intense later in the season if both teams are in the race. That would be a lot of fun.
AC 00 00 00 - BELIEVE

by mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on May 3, 2007 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

And, naturally...
... the schedule-makers screwed up again, as they already have many times this year.

The Cubs and Brewers have only nine head-to-head matchups left, and don't play each other at all after August 30.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

scheduling
While researching for my own schedule project, I've realized how absolutely insane it is to put a schedule together. Obviously it'd be cool to see a lot of games within the division towards the end of the year. That being said, I'm gonna give em a pass, because if it works out that way, honestly, how many people could have predicted it? I don't think there are many people out there who could honestly say that they expected the Brewers to have the kind of start that they are having.
AC 00 00 00 - BELIEVE

by mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on May 3, 2007 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree
I don't think that the Brewers will stray far from the top of the NL Central.  They are solid all the way through and their young players play loose (they are young but they have lots of MLB experience relatively speaking).  Fielder, Hardy, and Weeks is a great infield for a long time.  Plus, [GASP] their bullpen throws STRIKES!!!!  Amazing concept.  The only bullpen that has looked better this year to me is San Diego.  

by utcubby on May 3, 2007 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe San Diego would take some
interest in our Mr. Jones for some of their bullpen?  Maybe we could package Eyre as well?

by DudeVf11 on May 4, 2007 1:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

The one advantage
The one advantage we have is I think we are more willing and able to add in July than they are.
If your Dad buys part of the team do you get to shower with the players?

by kerrysotherwife on May 3, 2007 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well
Brewers owner Mark Attanasia is commited to fielding a winning ballclub.  I believe he will give GM Doug Melvin the green light to add any needed pieces if the Brewers are legitimately in this thing.  It's also worth noting that the Brewers have one of baseball's best pitching prosects at Triple A (I forget his name) and 3rd base prospect Ryan Braun.  

The thing that makes Milwaukee tough is their starting rotation.  Ben Sheets looks to be healthy, Chris Capuano is solid, Jeff Suppan is remarkably solid and David Bush has a high ceiling.  

Mark Prior sleeps with the fish.

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Capuano
his injury isn't serious - he's expected to make his next start. The diagnosis was a contusion, I believe, which is simply a bruise.

Good news for me, because he's on my fantasy team.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on May 3, 2007 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree with you Al regarding MLB TV...
...I considered it in 2005 but the blackout restrictions were outrageous to me.  When you pay for the service you should get to see the games, not  a potential chance to see if you happen to be in the North Pole on business...It's pissed me off that I'll not consider their product again...One day baseball will start games with large drapes over the field of play and fans attending are required to pay extra if they want the drapes lifted higher...Eventually, by the 7th inning, if you have paid about $1,000 above the already inflated ticket price, you'll be able to view their socks.  Of course, the drapes will be plastered with advertisers' logos.  Baseball has made it very clear to me that they want it to be very difficult if not impossible for me to view the games that I would like to view.  Congratulations!  Job well done!  But I am not viewing the games that they would like to me view nor will I attend them.

by DudeVf11 on May 3, 2007 9:33 AM CDT reply actions  

So far, I'm impressed ...
With this team's ability to score with two out; it's been a while since I've seen a Cubs' team do that ... I'm thinking all the way back to--gasp--2003.  But that ability already separates this club from last year's.  It's nice to think--with the exception of the regular out supplied by say ... the bat of Izturis, maybe Jones ... an inning isn't over until it's--OMG--over.

Granted, several posters have noted that the Cubs' aren't so good at scoring with less than two out ...

Like almost everybody else, I tend to think Milwaukee may be for real.  But only time will tell.

"No ballplayer's here because of the Mariners!" ~ Sam Malone

by Littlerock Rynofan on May 3, 2007 9:59 AM CDT reply actions  

Brewers
I have said since the offseason the Brewers are going to be tough.

I predict we win and the Brewers finish 2nd in the end but may get the wild card.

If your Dad buys part of the team do you get to shower with the players?

by kerrysotherwife on May 3, 2007 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't ...
Go so far as to predict a Cubs' victory of the division.  On paper, it appears they'll be a better team than last year--and in reality, they are beginning to show that.  It's just a beginning, however.  Pieces are starting to fall into place.

But they have to start getting regular victories at home before I'll consider them playoff-worthy.  To paraphrase BB, a team has to win a majority of home games and go quite close to .500 on the road to succeed.

And they've got to take advantage of the breaks they receive.  Of late, they haven't gotten a lot of them--those peculiar calls--but when they don't, they can't collapse in frustration.

As for a wild card coming from the Central, who the heck knows.

"No ballplayer's here because of the Mariners!" ~ Sam Malone

by Littlerock Rynofan on May 3, 2007 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oakland As
Well, now Mike Piazza is on the DL for a month to 6 weeks.  He joins Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay and Nick Swisher.  You have to wonder if Billy Beane could be persuaded to obtain Jacque Jones.  Though I kind of doubt it given that Jones isn't a stererotypical high OBP guy and makes $5-6 million this year and next.  
Mark Prior sleeps with the fish.

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 10:52 AM CDT reply actions  

I'd bet you...
... Beane might be interested in Murton. He's not all that dissimilar to Kotsay.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mark Kotsay
I don't get the comparison at all.  Kotsay is a solid defensive outfielder who plays a good center and runs well.  And he bats from the left side.  

Again, I don't want the Matt Murton Society to jump down my throat.  But why do some of you attach so high of value on him?!?  He is a non-run producing left fielder who bats from the right side.  He doesn't play great defense, has a below average arm and isn't a base stealing threat.  

Mark Prior sleeps with the fish.

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Kotsay...
... has a career line of .285/.340/.420. Are you saying Murton couldn't put up those numbers offensively? We're talking about them having to replace Mike Piazza here, not Mark Kotsay defensively.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 3, 2007 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not to speak for others
but I attach value to Murton mainly for three reasons:
  1. He's young, and likely to continue to improve - this is his age 25 year; power numbers, especially for a player of Murton's size, generally go up as they get older. In addition, his power seems to come later in the season as the weather warms up.
  2. He's cheap. We've spent tons of money, and to be competitive in the future, require at least a couple of inexpensive everyday players now that will develop to offset declining, aging expensive players.
  3. He gets on base (given regular opportunities) and OBP is something the Cubs have traditionally lacked. His speed really isn't that bad, but all told speed is irrelevant if you can't get on base.
I believe that Murton projects out to a 320/400/500 batter. Before you laugh at that, consider that in about 180 ABs over last August and September he hit 320/390/550. (His power seems to really come on in the back half of the season.) He's not a defensive star, but he's not a liability either; a corner outfielder with an OPS of 900 is pretty decent; solidly in the upper half of starting corner OFs, but not among the all-stars.

I agree that there appears to be no room for him this year on the team - Floyd, Jones, Soriano, Pie - too many outfielders. His numbers suggest that he's not good off the bench but there's too much of a logjam to get him any regular PT. That's pretty much Hendry's fault - he wanted to try to buy a World Series win this year, but at what cost to the Cubs future? The truth of a seven-game series is that any team can win (see 2006 Cardinals). The only way to really, truly increase your chances of winning a World Series are to get to the show every year. We have many players who have backloaded contracts and can be expected to decline in production beginning 2-3 years from now - Murton would be a good, inexpensive piece to pick up the slack.

by false cognate on May 3, 2007 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

320/400/500 ?!?
Good grief.  Where is all this power going to come from for a player who slaps at the ball with a level swing?!?  And did some of you ever think for a minute that maybe, just maybe, NL pitchers have figured out a way to significantly neutralize Murton?!?  

I don't care if he flashed some home run power last year.  This is a ballplayer that is right-handed version of Todd Hollandsworth, only a Holly that isn't a good outfielder and can only play one position.  In other words, he is a fungible commodity that, most likely, is destined for a nomadic playing career playing for small market and/or lousy ballclubs trying to round out a roster on the cheap.    

Orange balls! Hey, I'll have a box of those...give me a box of those naked lady tee's, and give me two of those..and give me six of those...!

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

last year
he made a significant adjustment in his swing mid-season, as reflected by his GB/FB/LD percentages. Look it up on fangraphs.com. If he can maintain that adjustment, I expect the power to stay.

by false cognate on May 3, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Projection
A Matt Murton playing everyday in the lineup would, in my opinion, put up the following numbers.

BA:  .280
OBP:  .340
SP%: .380
HR:  15
RBI: 60
Runs:  70

These aren't good numbers for an everyday left fielder.  Especially one who plays at Wrigley.  But it's a moot point.  Because it's clear Lou Piniella doesn't view Murton has an "everyday" option.  Nor should he.  

Orange balls! Hey, I'll have a box of those...give me a box of those naked lady tee's, and give me two of those..and give me six of those...!

by BlueMike on May 3, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Seriously...
What did you do...take his exact counting numbers from last year and add 150 ABS and no hits?  He put up those same numbers last year in part-time play at the age of 25.  Great estimate.
"Not true at all. Vaseline is manufactured right here in the United States." - Don Sutton, about the rumors that he uses a foreign substance on the ball

by Orangeman94 on May 3, 2007 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

i'd say your analysis is asinine
however you'd only come back with something immature or irrelvant, suffice it to say you're wrong but I'm proud that you're using stats.
Faith Plus One - Contributing Editor -http://www.inaleagueofherown.com

by Faith plus 1 on May 3, 2007 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Opinion
BM's entitled to his opinion on what Murton would do.  For comparison, you can always go to Baseball HQ and see what Ron Shandler's projections are for Murton.  Then, you can see side by side what someone who has a long track record and clearly knows something about statistical projection puts out there versus someone trolling for an argument.    

by MHef08 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on May 4, 2007 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Floyd
Any news on Cliff?

I supported his signing from day 1.  With the payroll we have and the potential he could bring I thought it was a good idea.

Now we just have to jettison Jones although I wouldn't mind having 2 of 3 Jones Murton and Floyd on the bench with the 3rd starting because a strong bench is important.

If your Dad buys part of the team do you get to shower with the players?

by kerrysotherwife on May 3, 2007 11:09 AM CDT reply actions  

Record so far
Despite the 12-14 start, I still have hope for a successful season.

I just did a bit of Retrosheet research, and found to my surprise that the 1989 Cubs, which ended up winning the division, went through a tough April - at one point losing eight of nine games and going under .500 with a 9-10 record. From there, the team went 84-59 the rest of the way.

I'm not saying this team has the talent to win 93 games, as that team did. But if they go 73-63 the rest of the way (not out of the question), they'll win 85 games and have a chance at this division. (My prediction before the season was that they'd go 85-77).

Of course, if Milwaukee keeps on winning twice as many as they lose, 85 wins won't come close to being enough. And the Brewers do look quite good. But I don't think they're going to win 95 or 100 games. They'll come back to earth a bit.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on May 3, 2007 12:37 PM CDT reply actions  

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