Regarding the new Dempster plan...

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 8:59 AM CDT

I'm wary of the talk of Dempster as a starter. He has been just fine as a closer. His work at the back of the pen has not been the reason we've struggled this year. Furthermore, moving him to the rotation would in NO WAY be an improvement on the rotation. Guzman has been solid as a starter 3.52 ERA. That's better than anything Dempster ever did, and it's MUCH better than most of the work Dempster did as a starter. I see no benefit in making a downgrade in the starting rotation to make a change at a position that has been solid for us this year. I'm glad that either Lou figured that out or that he never really considered that.

It appears that Guzman is the heir apparent. If that's the case, I like the idea of easing Guzman in. I especially like it considering that I think Dempster's as good as gone this winter as a free agent. If Guzman is the pegged "closer of the future," then it's not a bad idea to have him start to get familiar with the role. Perhaps have him be the 8th inning guy and occasional closer this year.

The question I have is what they're going to ultimately do with Marmol. Marmol doesn't have the control to be a reliever. His stuff is electric, but he has to get better command. I think he's better suited in the rotation. If Guzman is the next closer, I really don't like the idea of having Marmol in "get out of jam" duty. I can envision him walking in a few runs and adding fuel to the flames, rather than putting out a fire.

Compounding the question is the status of Zambrano. It's looking less and less likely, with the lack of clarity in the ownership situation, that Zambrano will be back next year. That leaves at least one hole in the rotation, and that's assuming that Lou will be comfortable with a rotation including 3 lefties. Theoretically, we'd need one of Guzman or Marmol to step in as the 5th starter, because our right-handed starting pitching depth drops off to AA again after those two.

I really hope the team doesn't have visions of Prior stepping back in in 2008. Meanwhile, what happened to Mateo?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Guzman as a two-inning closer

Guzman as a two-inning closer would be a great fit, IMO.
Dempster is more valuable on the open market as a starter, so moving him there to soon to be traded wouldn't hurt my feelings.

by BlueinNC on May 21, 2007 9:30 AM CDT reply actions

But...

... the fact is, no modern manager has a plan of using anyone as a two-inning closer, even though there are plenty of times that would be a good idea.

Lou isn't going to be the guy to "think outside the box" here.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 21, 2007 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions

Dempster already...

...has two two-inning relief appearances this year. And he has two saves that go longer than an inning. (These are not the same games.)

by cwyers on May 21, 2007 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions

Those 2-inning appearances were in...

extra inning games, if I'm not mistaken.

Closers make occasional 4-5 out saves, but no closer outside of Rivera is regularly used for more than 3 outs anymore.

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions

Two things about this...

I agree with Al - the 2-inning closer is a thing of the past. You can't throw back-to-back games that way, and certainly that's going to wear down the arm over the long haul. Guzman will likely be used as a normal closer.
Dempster only has trade value as a starter if he's an adequate starter. Otherwise, he has much more value being traded as someone's setup man.

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions

In my opinion

This is all about Piniella keeping his players (specifically Dempster) on edge. If you look at his history, he is one that needs constant prodding to be sharp and stay ahead of hitters. I think Lou recognizes this, and doesn't want him to relax. Furthermore, I think Lou is also uncomfortable with Dempster as the closer, long term, because of his penchant to walk guys, and then give up the big hit because he falls behind the hitters.

"Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year" - Sparky Anderson

by MPH73 on May 21, 2007 9:51 AM CDT reply actions

The "walking penchant"

... has simply not been the case this year.

Take out the Mets meltdown, and Dempster has walked six in 20 innings. That's not bad at all for a closer, and apart from that Mets game, he has not walked more than one in ANY appearance this season.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on May 21, 2007 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions

You are correct so far in 07

But I would expect that Dempster will gravitate towards his career trend of walking around 5 per 9 innings. Players usually always end up very near thear long term trends, as opposed to a smaller sample size. His career WHIP is over 1.5 and that is where he has been in the last couple years, and that is a dangerous recipe for a closer.

"Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year" - Sparky Anderson

by MPH73 on May 21, 2007 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Dempster's struggles...

as a reliever last year came because he was more hittable.

In 2005, when he was terrific as the closer (1.85 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), he held opposing hitters to a .218 BAA. In 2006, when he struggled with a WHIP near 1.5, he had a BAA of .262. This year, he has a .186 BAA.

So for Dempster, he's managed to handled the walks. It's been making sure to miss bats that's been key for him as a closer.

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions

It's a lot easier to miss bats

When you are getting ahead of the hitters, and this has been something that has always crept up and made it difficult for him.

"Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I'll win a pennant every year" - Sparky Anderson

by MPH73 on May 21, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions

Walks...

Not all about just walking guys. He consistently falls behind hitters, and this is what gets him in trouble. As for being "comfortable" with him as the closer, it will never happen. When was the last time you said "IF we can just get the game to Dempster it's over"

by Stryker10 on May 21, 2007 10:41 AM CDT reply actions

You're missing the point...

my point isn't to suggest that Dempster is a lights-out closer. My point is that he's been more than adequate this year at it this year (and he was great at it in 2005).

And my bigger point is that he is TERRIBLE as a starter, whereas Guzman has been decent (and Marshall might be decent too).

Moving Dempster out of the pen (where he's adequate) and into the rotation (where he's awful) makes no sense.

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions

Applause from me!

n/t

I'll be a believer once we beat Capuano

by cubbie08 on May 21, 2007 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed...

I do agree he would be terrible as a starter...I think that he would not be a cub starter for long though..probably more of a tryout for another team(Yankees) for a trade.

by Stryker10 on May 21, 2007 10:54 AM CDT reply actions

re: What happened to Juan Mateo

Better question: what about Rocky Cherry? While I don't follow the wheelings and dealings of the Iowa Cubs, if I remember correctly, Rocky Cherry is their closer. This would lead me to believe that scouts/coaches think that Cherry has "closer stuff." Thus, if the Cubs are in the market for a new closer, why not throw Rocky into the mix.

Further, it would also make more sense to me to try out Guzman, Marmol, and whoever else in Iowa to see if they can hack the closer job before putting the ball in their hand in the 9th inning of Major League baseball.

This whole scenario doesn't make much sense to me--especially because it's being played out in the media and not behind closed doors, where such discussions belong.

by Rev Gunia on May 21, 2007 12:25 PM CDT reply actions

mateo

he's been injured all year so far. Cherry is like 26 years old already, and he has decent stuff, but his control isn't great. I consider dempster a better closing option then cherry, which doesn't say much for cherry's skill considering my low opinion of demp.

Marmol's control is still far too much of an issue, regardless of whether he starts or closes at AAA. Guzmán is a potential option.

Baby, you got a stew goin'

by Thelonious on May 21, 2007 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, I know he's hurt...

but what is the injury Mateo has? Did it require surgery? What's the prognosis? Sorry, I should have been more clear with what I was asking about Mateo.

by SouthernCub on May 21, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions