Preparing for the inevitbale - Z leaving.
Cnn/Si has an article that is the first hard look at the dissolving of Z's extension in the wake of the sale. Apparently, Hendry wants to get it done but "it's out of his hands."
He's been my favorite Cub since he was a rookie, I knew he was the real deal even as everyone fawned over Wood, then Prior.
The thing to prepare ourselves for is: is he dealt? That would seem to make sense only if we were out of the race which means we're in a catch-22: the more success during the season, the higher the likelihood that he walks, Maddux style after the season because we'd need him for any October push.
About the only mid-season deal that makes sense would be involving A-Rod but that's simply the realm of science fiction.
I guess a WS tophy would be worth it, but that's a long shot as well. I see no good way out of this.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/05/07/daily.scoop.tuesday/index.html
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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40 comments
Comments
If Zambrano can't be signed.......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 8, 2007 11:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What if keeping him...
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on May 8, 2007 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if
by NO100 on May 8, 2007 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we are in it on July 31....
by ctcoff99 on May 8, 2007 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yabbut
by NO100 on May 8, 2007 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said previously
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 11:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Respectfully disagree...
In short - I think you're crazy
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on May 8, 2007 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am not certain he is an ACE
Is he worth 5 years, well the only pitchers I knew that were are: Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Santana, maybe Johnson, Schilling.
I think a keen GM is going trade Zambrano when the Yankees come calling for more in late June or July, take their Hughes and then trade prospects like Marmol and Cedeno to the ChiSox for Buerhle.
More importantly measuring the development of Guzman and Marshall will be a big determining factor although then snaring a top Yankee prospect wouldn't be bad either.
by Ivy Walls on May 8, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colon
Over the last 4 years (2003 - 2006), Carlos has thrown over 200 innings in each season, his highest ERA has been 3.41, highest WHIP was 1.32, and has had a 2 to 1 K/BB ratio. How many pitchers have done that? Plus he doesn't turn 26 until June.
by MHef08 on May 8, 2007 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh for god's sake
I'll even start the list for you
1. Santana
I got nothin.....
by Faith plus 1 on May 8, 2007 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's one more........
by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 8, 2007 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Halladay?
by Faith plus 1 on May 8, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
12 Hours later....
Point made. 5 years is a no-brainer.
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on May 8, 2007 11:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the past is done
I love Big Z and he has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last few years, those who discount his "ace" status are arguing semantics and its trivial, he's our ace and has been so for quite some time
regardless that doesnt mean he WILL BE the ace for the next 5 years and that's the determination you need to make going forward
Do you feel comfortable in saying Big Z is going to be one of the top 10 pitchers in the game over the next 5 years, because thats what he's going to be paid like
As i said in my previous post, the trends are concerning and suggest that he may not be able to repeat his prior success going forward and for that reason the idea of letting him go MUST be entertained
Branch Rickey always was willing to let a guy go a year or two before their prime ended if it meant he didnt have to committ to a contract 3-4 years after his prime ended, the point being its easier to deal with letting a guy go a bit early than it is a bit late
and the reason for this is cost. Letting a guy go to early is a sunk cost that can be replaced, holding onto a guy too long cannot
so when we're talking about Z, you can't focus entirely on the past to determine his worth going forward. How many pitchers in the last 20 years have thrown up 9-10 consecutive years of the production Z just put up? I'm guessing not many
How many have given 3-5 before becoming significantly less effective after signing a massive long term deal due to injury or decreased skill? A LOT
by DartmouthCubsFan on May 9, 2007 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deal him
by ExNorthsider on May 8, 2007 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hendry
I don't trust him to be able to identify 1 top prospect, let alone 2.
by salparadise23 on May 8, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Having said that, talk of dealing Zambrano is moot. The Cubs will have a new owner next winter. Hendry is clearly focused on the short-term and could care less about the long-term. The threat of Zambrano walking via free agency is the least of Hendry's concerns. He likely won't be around to see the event unfold.
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
c'mon
and criticizing him for giving up peanuts to acquire Ramirez, Lofton, and Derek Lee is short-sighted
Hendry's not a great GM, so we should at least give him credit for an area he's done a good job at
trades
by DartmouthCubsFan on May 8, 2007 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Florida was in aggressive payroll reduction mode when they dealt Derrek Lee to the Cubs.
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But you must admit
However, I am of the belief that there is no way Jim Hendry anticipated that increased production. It was, for the Cubs, a very happy accident.
by SuperContext on May 8, 2007 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to disagree..
I also do not trust Hendry in trying to identify good minor league talent that could help build a team. I'd rather see him overpay for Z than trade him for the terrible prospects he's likely to acquire.
by wicubfan on May 8, 2007 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nomar
by MHef08 on May 8, 2007 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, that's a funny one
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BlueMike
by Faith plus 1 on May 8, 2007 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
simply regarding
by Faith plus 1 on May 8, 2007 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Recent history would indicate that's not realistic
That nothing reasonable could be gotten for Soriano or Zito last year makes me think the market has changed for mid-season trades. Free agents are so expensive now that even the big market teams can't afford to let prospects go.
by Wreckard on May 8, 2007 5:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Re
Visit The Digital Gazette
by Jed Taylor on May 10, 2007 9:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
by Kinky Reggae on May 8, 2007 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Z may not be too sharp on the mound now ..
First of all, trading Z is not out of the question, but it's NOT going to happen. There is absolutely NO ONE on the market that is going to come close to his potential who'd want to come to the Cubs. It didn't happen during the offseason except with the now almost providential signings Hendry made of Lilly and Marquis. It ain't going to happen now.
Secondly, the Cubs NEED his arm now more than ever, and face it, once he zeroes in and gets his game on and gets his mechanics straight, he is almost unstoppable. He is the horse the Cubs CANNOT lose. It's regrettable that his maturity still is coming along and that his hot headed ness gets to him, but let's face the facts - he's worked hard to get where he is now. In September, a disciplined, poker faced Z will be more terrifying than Prior or Wood have, sadly, ever been.
And thirdly, Z knows the score about the money involved in a new contract. He's a FA after this is all over, and the Cubs SOMEHOW get to the postseason, he KNOWS the new owners are going to simply have to pay through the nose. Or someone else will. I observed in another thread that the greatest financial bargaining chip the Cubs had was letting Z start. All the month of May he was hideous, but that's his historical Achilles. He'll get better and unhittable, and I can't think of a single MLB team that doesn't know that and will be willing to wine and dine his agent well for him come November.
Having said all that, I hope he's with us next year. It won't be the same without his passion, bat busting and base hits .. including his verbal gaffes and short leg.
by cubnational on May 8, 2007 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't count out ARod
by Kinky Reggae on May 8, 2007 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Signed or not signed...
If keeping him contributes to winning, I could live with him leaving.
I don't WANT him to leave, nor do I think it is "inevitable". It's just too far in the future to make any judgments on May 8.
by Al on May 8, 2007 12:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Changed my stance on this one
and maybe i'll wane again if Carlos goes back to his form, but there's so many red lights flashing right now when it comes to big Z that elicit MAJOR concerns
- His arm angle has changed considerably and Baseball Tonight did an excellent job pointing this out a few weeks back. His back issues in the past appear to have limited his ability to drive through to the plate and instead is throwing more across his body now than ever before. He used to come through the ball with his back bending lower, now he's more upright and slinging the ball. His 2 seamer used to have sink to it and good tilt, now its tailing and rising more
- This change in mechanics has lead to a change in his ability to generate fly balls, he's become increasingly more dependent on K's and fly balls over the last two years, a major concern for a pitcher pitching in our stadium
- he's also lost any semblance of control he used to have, sure he was never a maddux type but Z wasnt a contender for leading the league in walks until the last year or two and his erratic control is leading to more pitches, more wear and tear, and less statistically appealing numbers
- this year his K rate has dropped significantly and he's already allowed 9 HR'S, this is terrifying and while yes its early... its a MAJOR concern
I've changed my stance wholeheartedly on this one and its not because of the long-term committment associated with Z as much as the trend in his numbers, increased fly balls and increased BB's with decreased K's is a really really bad trend
now the K's are just a short lived phenomenon but the other two are going over a year now and look to be more than just a short-term trend
I hate to say it because I love Z so much, but I think we might be better off in the long run if we could get something significant in return this year for Z. If his mechanics returned and he became more of the groundball pitcher we saw in the past, I'd feel a lot better about things
I don't want to be fickle about this cause its easy to want to get rid of Big Z when he's pitching like this and I hope things change, but my stance has changed considerably.
I thought this team HAD to have an elite starter to contend with the aging high priced position talent we have eating away at the budget, and i still think that but I'm starting to operate under the belief we may be better off taking a shot on some younger prospects through a trade and hoping they develop quickly
by DartmouthCubsFan on May 8, 2007 12:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You fail to take into account the following...
B. The likely short-term nature of Jim Hendry's employment.
This thing with Zambrano is going to drag out until the point of him filing for free agency. And Hendry could care less because he needs to win right now.
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Okay
One example of something similar: Boston trading Nomar during the 2004 season.
Of course, I worry about Hendry's ability to make a good trade. But what I worry most about is Zambrano continuing to suck and losing value to the Cubs this year.
by ExNorthsider on May 8, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if Hendry wins.......
by PriorandAramisfan23 on May 8, 2007 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the last time
Jim Hendry is operating in the short term because his job is on the line and both the parent company and ballclub club business unit are being sold. Nobody is going to approve a new multi million contact under these circumstances. Therefore, chances are very strong that this thing with Zambrano will drag out until next winter's free agency period.
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hendry's future
by John in DC on May 8, 2007 3:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
by Al on May 8, 2007 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Thing is we are likely staring at a lame duck administration next offseason. The Cubs had better win in 2007 with the pieces in place, because I doubt very seriously the front office will be able to do much manuevering next winter. And yes, this likely means Carlos Zambrano hits the free agency market.
by BlueMike on May 8, 2007 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB owners
by John in DC on May 8, 2007 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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