FanPost

Warning: Mike Fontenot is not this good

I am quite happy for Mike Fontenot's recent performance. However, before we annoint him the second coming of Ryno, we need to remember this:

Mike Fontenot is not this good. I think we all know that he isn't going to hit .397, but history shows that even a .250 average in the long run might not be likely. He may have a servicable career as a middling middle infielder, but to hit above .300 consistantly? No. There is nothing in his historical statistical makeup to make it seem possible.

For comparison, let's look back at 2003, at a young man with similar numbers, a Mr. Bo Hart. In 2003, the Cardinals plugged Hart in at second base, and over his first 130 plate appearances he hit .345 with a .386 OBP and a .471 slugging percentage. Then, something horrible happened: Scouts watched him play and the second half of the season began.

From there on out, Mr. Hart hit just .226 with a .267 OBP over his next 205 appearances. What happened was that scouting reports got out on the holes in Hart's swing, the deficiencies in his game, and pitchers took advantage of it. Interestingly, the now well traveled Mr. Hart is now plying his trade in Iowa as the defacto replacement for Fontenot.

Another flash of '03 was 25-year-old Matt Kata, who played second for the Diamondbacks. In the first half of the season, he came up and appeared in 24 games with 106 plate appearances and hit .344 with a .406 OBP and .583 slugging. Then, much like Hart, word got out and the rest of the way Kata hit .214 with a .270 OBP and a .339 slugging. He finished at .257, but has been a fringe major leaguer ever since and is currently hitting .186 as a utility guy and Sammy Sosa's caddy in Texas.

Please understand that I write this not to knock Fontenot, but merely to warn the overly enthusiastic that his great numbers will definitely not continue, and that merely "good" numbers and a prolonged career seem to be equally unlikely.

Edit: Fontenot's BP Card: Check out his league equivalency numbers. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/fontemi01.php

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