Lee homer watch

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 4:40 PM CDT Comment 35 comments

For anyone who was wondering, it has now been 21 games, spanning 82 at-bats, since Derrek Lee has homered. His last homer came on June 3.

Now it's nice that he's batting .350, but I didn't expect him to turn into Rod Carew this year, and I doubt anyone else did, either. With Barrett gone, and now Jones probably being traded (not that he was hitting homers, anyway), the Cubs really need Lee to start hitting with some pop again.

The six homers he's had so far this year put him on pace for around 13. We need more than that from Lee. It's possible, I suppose, that his injury from last year is affecting his power. I can't think of any other reason.

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pre-2005

Lee really wasn't much of a power hitter, perhaps around 20 a year. But maybe 2005 was a power fluke for Lee. Would love to see DLee get back into the power groove but that might not be a possibility

by DTJchris on Jun 26, 2007 4:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Might wanna check the numbers on that

28HRs
21HRs
27HRs
31HRs
32HRs

by Scott on Jun 26, 2007 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

Look at his homer totals pre-2005:

From those numbers, you'd have to say he's a guy who can be expected to hit 25 to 35 homers a year (he hit 46 in 2005). I don't expect him to hit 46 again - that might well have been a fluke. But anything less than 27 is below what he averaged in the five years leading up to 2005.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Check

the home/road HR splits on 2002 and 2003 too.

Dolphin Stadium was killing him. He was hitting twice as many HRs on the road than at home.

by Josh77 on Jun 26, 2007 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops, my bad

thought his HR totals were a tad lower. But still, going from an average HR's of 30 to 46 is a big jump. And yes, he should have more HR's this year than he has.

by DTJchris on Jun 26, 2007 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

He's had at least 5 or 6 balls come about 2 feet from the wall over the last couple days. He's hitting the ball, and don't forget his 26 doubles.

That being said, it'd be great if his power came back 100%.

by ar_hawkins on Jun 26, 2007 4:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

True

I think he's hit a lot of balls to the warning track or the wall this year. That's called "warning track power." It's not just bad luck that the ball didn't go a few feet farther. it speaks to the way Lee has been hitting.

It's not always true what Harry Caray used to say when a ball just missed being a homer: "One more biscuit for breakfast..."

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be nice for Lee to hit homers

But I can live with the bulk of our homers coming from Soriano and Ramirez. As long as D-Lee keeps hitting consistently and playing first at a gold glove level, I won't be complaining. It's actually kind of refreshing to see a team that isn't so homerun dependent for a change (or at least they don't seem to be).

by SuperContext on Jun 26, 2007 4:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Could his wrist be an issue?

Seems to me alot of his power was generated from his wrist. Also Lee has been striking out a ton as of late especially with RISP.

Watch tonight he'll have a 3 homer game.

GO CUBS GO! Hey Chicago whatdya say the Cubs are going to win today!

by Galvan316 on Jun 26, 2007 4:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's hope

my diary entry was the key to that!

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He hit...

for pretty good HR power after returning from the injury late last year, so I don't think the wrist is the problem.

by SouthernCub on Jun 27, 2007 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of all the things

that worry me about the Cubs, this isn't one of them.

I would guess he'll have 20-30 by the end of the year. This is almost certainly just statistical variation. He's had a bunch of near misses.

by paulucla on Jun 26, 2007 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I think it's strange that some people take a "What, me worry?" attitude when a guy we'd counted on to hit 30 homers has 6 halfway through the season.

I suppose his batting average partly makes up for the lack of power. But I'd rather see him at .300 with 15 homers right now and a lot more RBI. Especially in the three-hole.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know about advanced stats...

but some people have written posts that show that Lee has been the most productive hitter even without his homeruns.

That said, I am concerned and I hope his power didn't disappear. Maybe he's still recovering from his injury, but I am worried. Someone compared him to Mark Grace the other day...

"I don't talk. I just let what I do talk for myself." -Johan Santana

by sparkles721 on Jun 26, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I made that comparison back in April

And I've gotten plenty of blowback on this issue. In April/May, the line was that Lee "is only seeing sliders away", which he could not drive.

Fact is, Lee simply isn't hitting for power, and it's very troubling. His close-and-late stats have bounced back to respectability, but his lack of power is absolutely disturbing.

by ClosingTime on Jun 26, 2007 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

The "near misses" you speak of are called fly outs. And yes, a Mark Grace comparison, on the field anyway, is more than appropriate right now for Lee. But for the fact that Lee can run and isn't a base clogger. I'll leave the off the field comparisons to someone else.

Eighty-five percent of the f*ckin' world is working. The other fifteen percent come out here. -- Lee Constantine Elia, 1983.

by krummy12 on Jun 27, 2007 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is alarming though

Is his strike outs, they are way way up this year.

GO CUBS GO! Hey Chicago whatdya say the Cubs are going to win today!

by Galvan316 on Jun 26, 2007 4:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts are NOT "way way up".

He had, before last night, 59 K in 70 games played. That projects to 136 in 162 games.

Except for 2005, when he struck out 109 times, that's pretty much in line with his career norms.

Further, his SLG is .518. That's ABOVE his career average. His OBA is .423. That's WAY above his career average. He's 4th in the league with 26 doubles, which is on pace to have about 54 for the season.

What on Earth are you people worried about?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 27, 2007 3:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Homeruns.

"I don't talk. I just let what I do talk for myself." -Johan Santana

by sparkles721 on Jun 27, 2007 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why?

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 27, 2007 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because he used to hit a lot and now he doesn't?

He can still have a monster second half, he's hitting like crazy, he's gotten big hits, plays awesome defense. I love Derrek and I know he's still the best offensive player on this team right now even better than Aramis and his homeruns. I just wish Derrek Lee went back to hitting more homeruns. It's not necessary, but I just wish he did. The lack of homeruns just makes Derrek incomplete, even though again it's definitely not necessary.

Right now it's not a concern, but what if he can't keep up this great hitting next year? What if he doesn't hit as amazingly and doesn't hit homeruns? Although I personally believe that he's proving right now that he did make an adjustment and maybe he's turned himself into a .300 hitter which is very impressive. Major props to D-Lee for improving his game.

"I don't talk. I just let what I do talk for myself." -Johan Santana

by sparkles721 on Jun 27, 2007 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You said it yourself.

It's not necessary. He's hitting great. He's near the league lead in BA, OBA, SLG and doubles. So he hasn't hit in the "sexy" HR category.

I say, so what? He's still a "complete" player in my book.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jun 27, 2007 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree 100%

I don't see why everyone is so obsessed with the homerun from Lee. We now love to bash Sosa for the selfish mentality of looking to drive it out of the park every time up to the plate, and then we have a guy who is an absolute great complete hitter (not to mention his defense, which is top-notch) and we moan about his lack of power.

Lee's numbers are comparable to pre-injury Nomar in Boston (who's high for home runs in a season was 35, but was more often only in the 20s). That's quality, even if he isn't putting as many onto Waveland as he did in '05.

by SuperContext on Jun 27, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prob. not 100%

Or making tiny adjustments that are affecting his power...and K rate...his avg. and RBI count still OK considering...I think he'll bounce back 2nd half and in 2008 and beyond to be primo player...he ain't far from one as is...If added Griffey to bat before or after him, we'd have a real powerhouse middle-of-lineup....just don't see what we'd have to give up that would satisfy the Reds...Marshall?? He's been pretty damn good...Marshall and Murton?? Tempting...

by writerinwrigley on Jun 26, 2007 5:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This was expected following the wrist injury

Remember he had one taken away from a fan. I suspect that Lee will gain more power the second half...probably finish with 27-30 HR's and next year have a better HR year.

Milw-09-24-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Jun 26, 2007 5:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lee HR not as crucial with Soriano?

I'm wondering if the net loss of HR power from Lee is somehow negated by the net gain in power out of Soriano in LF?

Also, add up Soriano and Floyd's numbers plus the added DeRosa numbers and see if that's more than Murton-JJ-Lee from last yr? If it is I think we're ok.

Regardless, it bears watching. I'd like to see him get at least 20 (this could be his low HR output in a long while). Hopefully the power numbers come.

by cubby23 on Jun 26, 2007 5:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Tonight

Well, now it's 86 at bats and counting... Not that I want to complain with the Cubs on a 5-game win streak.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Jun 26, 2007 10:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Trade

I'd be happy if Lee didn't hit another homer this season if it meant that the Cubs winning streak lasted as long as his homerless draught.

"Don't think; it can only hurt the ball club."

by Jesse Guam on Jun 27, 2007 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lee doesn't need to hit 35 homers

for this team to win. For those that pay attention, his 05 homer total was a bit of an abiration. He made a great adjustment that year, and figured out how to turn on the inside pitch, and he was just killing teams. If you look at the 2nd half of 05, he cooled down, because word got out he was now killing the inside pitch.

Since 05, teams have been mostly pounding Lee just off the outside edge, and this has nullified the adjustment he made in 05. He needs the pitch middle in to launch it, and he just isn't seeing too many of those. He either has to creep closer to the plate, or just keep hitting .350 with 25 dingers, which is just fine by me.

He will hit more homers in the 2nd half because he is too good to not hit over 20, but I don't see him being a 40+ guy again, because teams are too cautious with his power zone.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jun 27, 2007 9:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Derrek Lee

is starting to be more like Derrek Jeter. Doubles power, RBIs some stolen bases. excellent Defense.

The only thing that D.lee is not is a tool. :)

GO CUBS GO! Hey Chicago whatdya say the Cubs are going to win today!

by Galvan316 on Jun 27, 2007 10:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So what

If you watch his ball flight, he hits the ball more on a line than A-ram does. It tough to hit a 400 foot line drive that nose diving. He makes solid contact so what the issue. If he starts trying to lift the ball he will see many of those line shots turn into fly outs.

by cubsfaninkc on Jun 27, 2007 11:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lack of HR's by Lee...

...so what!

Winning baseball is all about team balance and the Cubs appear to be on their way to securing such...a different player every night!

Take the Yankees during the mid-to-late 90's for example; during their run of 4 WS championships they had ONE player hit 30 HR's, ONE. I'm pretty certain no Yankee fan was complaining about a lack of power.

Btw, Jeter is NOT a tool! The Cubs would be fortunate to have such a great SS and professional!

by rm463 on Jun 27, 2007 12:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs