Better Chances: Win the Division or Win the Wild Card

by cubfanwill on Jun 30, 2007 7:53 PM CDT

I'm curious on what everybody thinks is more realistic at this point in the season. I realize it is only half way through the season, but it would be fun to hear everyone's opinion on this.

Currently, as everyone knows the Cubs are 39-40, 7.5 games behind the Brewers who are 47-33.

Currently, the wild card standings are as followed:

Arizona: 46-35

L.A. Dodgers: 45-35 (.5 games back)

Atlanta: 42-38 (3.5 games back)

Philadelphia: 41-40 (5 games back)

Cubs: 39-40 (6 games back)

What does everyone think? 7.5 games behind 1 team, or 6 games back with 3 teams ahead of you.

Poll

What are the Cubs most likely to win?

Neither

9 votes

The Division

27 votes

The Wild Card

15 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Pondered the same thing

I pondered the same thing here last week and I felt the wildcard was more attainable. However, if we keep a record of 7 out of 10 wins for the remainder of the season, The Brewers could have another slump so anything is entirely possible.

by ak123 on Jun 30, 2007 7:53 PM CDT reply actions

I don't think there's any question

Despite the split right now, the division is quite a bit more winnable in a realistic sense. The Wild Card is full of seasoned and experienced teams (Philly and Atlanta, of course, not to mention whatever team doesn't take the NL West) the Cubs would have to either beat or capitalize upon their separate and simultaneous misfortunes, which is (needless to say) quite unlikely. In the Brewers you've got a good hitting team with average to above-average pitching, but nonetheless a team that's never been in this sort of position before. They could very realistically get themselves in a funk after the ASB, and all of a sudden the Cubs only have to overcome one team to earn a playoff berth.

"And heeeere cooome the pretzels!"

by NightPutting on Jun 30, 2007 7:54 PM CDT reply actions

i think the cubs

have to think wild card right now. the brewers have the look of the tigers of last year.

"One thing you learn as a Cubs fan: When you bought your ticket, you could bank on seeing the bottom of the ninth." - Joe Garagiola

by gary varsho on Jun 30, 2007 8:04 PM CDT reply actions

That's True...

But remember, the Tigers had a rough couple of weeks in September, and the Twins snuck in and took the division while the Tigers won the wild card. Personally, either one would be just fine. All I, and probably all of the posters and readers on this site, want to see is the Cubs make the playoffs.

by cubfanwill on Jun 30, 2007 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions

Too early to tell.

The wild card race is impossible to sort out at this time, with so many teams involved. Check back around the first of August.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jun 30, 2007 8:17 PM CDT reply actions

There is no doubt

in my mind, that the division will be the only opportunity for the Cubs or Brewers to make the playoffs. I still don't think anyone will win 90 games in the division, and the wild card will probably require about 90-92 to get in.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jun 30, 2007 8:58 PM CDT reply actions

No Way

Does the Wildcard come from the NL Central. It's just not gonna happen. It's coming from the NL East.

Nobody in the NL West is the whipping boy right now, so as they play themselves a lot in the second half, the division winner will probably only have 85-88 wins MAX.

The NL East has both the Mets and the Phillies. I still expect the Phillies to win the division and the Mets to take the Wildcard. Those guys get to beat up on the Nationals. And Florida and Atlanta, while respectable, aren't on the same level as the Mets or Phillies. Both the Mets and Phillies are 90-95 win teams.

The NL Central has the Brewers, the Cubs, and 4 other teams this year. But as the Brewers showed during their slump, they can't dominate the good teams like they do the bad ones. The Brewers are probably an 88-90 win team, and that's largely because they are in the central. The Cubs are probably a 85-88 win team, if they stay pretty hot, which is good, but not good enough to win the Wildcard, which I predict will be taken by the Mets with about 90 wins.

by WittyUserName on Jun 30, 2007 9:37 PM CDT reply actions

How can you be so sure?

Look at the wild card standings.

If the D'backs, Dodgers, Phillies and Braves all lose on Sunday (entirely possible), and the Cubs win, the Cubs will stand tied for 4th in the WC race, 4.5 games out.

With half a season to go, it's anyone's race.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jul 1, 2007 4:34 AM CDT up reply actions

Sure, it's possible

But not very likely. I just can't imagine that the Brewers win more than both the Phillies and the Mets. I see the Brewers capping out at about 90 wins, while the Mets and Phillies, in my opinion at least, cap out at about 95 wins.

I never saw anyone in the West as being more than a 88 win max team, especially because, while I picked the Padres, I felt that I could've gone with 3 different teams. That division is incredibly even, and will even out a lot of their records because there is no 'auto-win', really, in their division.

The only way I see the Wildcard coming from the NL Central. Is if both the Brewers and Cubs stay hot, and beat the holy crap out of the rest of the scuffling division. Granted at the beginning of the season I felt that this was a pretty weak division, and even the winner probably wouldn't be quite as good as the winners from either the East or West. Perhaps both the Cubs and Brewers feast on this crappy division and both put up 90+ wins, it's possible.

But I suspect that both the Mets and Phillies will have better 2nd halves and start to pull away the wildcard race with them

by WittyUserName on Jul 2, 2007 4:34 AM CDT up reply actions

hmmm....

i believe the cubbies can def.win this division.the brew crew has shown a lot of inconsistency this year.they have been up and down and so have we.whoever has the better pitching in the second half of the season will win it!!

by cubz409 on Jun 30, 2007 10:28 PM CDT reply actions

My 2 cents..

I think the wildcard is more attainable than many think. The unbalanced schedule will have many of these teams beating up on each other. That should give the Cubs a better chance at the wildcard than the division.

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Jul 2, 2007 11:19 AM CDT reply actions