Five Questions: The Cardinals
With the Cubs meeting the Cardinals, beginning tonight, for the first time in three months, it seemed like the right time to exchange Five Questions with Larry over at Viva El Birdos. I'm posting both sets of questions and answers here, but you can also head over there and join the discussion. Despite the rivalry between the clubs, as I have written here many times, I have a great respect for Cardinal fans and their passion for their team, and Larry runs an excellent site and has become a friend.
First, my questions for him:
BCB: What is the single most important reason that the Cardinals sit five games under .500 and 8.5 games out of first place, not long after winning the World Series?
VEB: They haven't had Carpenter. He was the only certainty in the rotation heading into this season. Because of him, the Cardinals figured they could gamble on rotation slots 2 through 5 --- as long as a couple of the gambles worked out, they'd be solid at the top of the rotation. That's usually enough in the NL Central. When Carpenter got hurt, the whole formula fell apart.
Reasons 2 and 3 would be the precipitous dropoff in Edmonds' and Rolen's performance. Both have injury histories and are on the wrong side of 30, so it's not as if their declines were unforeseeable. The Cards gambled they could milk another good year out of both, and crapped out.
There are plenty of other things wrong with the team, too --- it's old, it's unmotivated, it's top heavy. But a healthy, productive ace can redeem a lot of sins. When Zambrano got hot (literally and figuratively), it turned the Cubs' season around. The Cards are the flip side of that coin --- without Carpenter to help mask their other shortcomings, they've been completely exposed.
BCB: What has to happen for the Cardinals to start winning again, and do you really think they still have a chance at getting back in the race? They haven't won more than four in a row all year, and that was in April.
VEB: The Cards are toast; their season ended when Carpenter had to be shut down for good. Without him, they just don't have the pitching to sustain any success over a long period of time. If he were returning to the rotation this week as anticipated, he would have given them a fighting chance; I wouldn't be conceding the season. But it is what it is. With Carpenter out, I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to win the division even if they somehow managed to sweep all 7 games against the Cubs and the Brewers this week.
BCB: Who would you trade, right now, either from the major league team or from the Cardinals' farm system, for immediate (or future) major league help, and who would you be targeting for that help?
VEB: I wrote about that here. The Cardinals desperately need players who are a) young, b) patient at the plate, and c) fast. They've got hacktastic sluggers galore; no need for any more of those. They need a 25-year-old Luis Castillo type, someone to get on base ahead of Albert.
Oh yeah, and they need 2 or 3 good starting pitchers.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals don't have the organizational depth to pull off an acquisition like that. Isringhausen might bring a decent return, and David Eckstein might have some narrow appeal to the right team; I can imagine the Cubs liking Eckstein, but they and the Cardinals are certainly not going to help one another. There is said to be a trade market for Anthony Reyes, but he's no longer regarded as premium material. The Cardinals would surely trade guys like Russ Springer and Braden Looper and Juan Encarnacion, but I wouldn't expect much in return for them.
BCB: Who is the most pleasant surprise for the Cardinals this year?
VEB: Ryan Franklin --- he and Isringhausen have done as much as anyone to keep the Cardinals from falling 15 games under .500.
BCB: Who is the guy who you'd most say "I told you so" about, in terms of not meeting expectations, this season?
VEB: In terms of NOT meeting expectations, it'd be Edmonds --- back in November I expressed the unpopular opinion that they should buy out his option year and sign somebody else to play center. But then, the guy I thought the Cardinals should target as Edmonds' replacement was Dave Roberts, and that's a "told you so" in the opposite direction, because Roberts has been nearly as injury-prone and unproductive this year as Edmonds.
The biggest "told you so" story of the season has been Anthony Reyes, who is as divisive a figure as Cardinal Nation has seen in some time. About half the VEB community (including me) thought he'd be pretty good, and the other half never thought much of him; he's 0-10 with an era north of 6. Told you so . . . .
And, here are Larry's questions for me, and my responses:
VEB: For all the money the Cubs spent on free agents from other teams, the Cubs' fortunes this year ultimately have mirrored Zambrano's --- when he was doing poorly, they stunk, and when he turned it around, so did the team. With all the financial commitments they've already made, can the team afford to keep him? From a won-loss standpoint, can they possibly afford to let him go?
BCB: No, there's really no way they can let Z go, from a won-loss standpoint OR a psychological standpoint. He's so popular among Cubs fans (and without Kerry Wood, he is also the senior Cub in length of service, having been here since 2001). He means so much to the ballclub in so many ways.
Can they afford him? Sure they can. The team's going to be sold, obviously, in the next year or so. But any new owner would love to have a drawing card like Z, and even if they have to pay him $15 million plus per year, that's ... well, not quite chump change, but close, to anyone who's going to have to pay close to $1 billion for the franchise.
Z has a shot at a 20-win season this year. Only one Cub has done that in the last 15 years (Jon Lieber, 2001).
VEB: The Cubs are still not scoring all that many runs. They're 14th in the league in walks, 12th in homers, and only 8th in runs scored. Short of a big trade, is there anything they can do to goose the offense?
BCB: The home runs will come, I believe. Jacque Jones won't have two HR all year (same number as Ryan Theriot, and that won't last). Derrek Lee was just starting to hit them again when he started his suspension. That alone will help the run-scoring. 8th in runs scored -- that's a bit misleading, as there is a big bunch of teams from 3rd (Milwaukee, 472) to 9th (New York, 448). If the Cubs have a couple of big offensive days, they could climb three or four spots.
The consistency of the pitching staff, both starting and relieving, is a big reason for the winning surge of late -- and if this team is going to win anything, it's going to be with pitching.
VEB: If the Cubs do make a trade, do they have any talent they can send the other way that's sufficient to land an impact player?
BCB: Sure -- Ronny Cedeno and Felix Pie, both now tearing up Triple-A (since I wrote this, Cedeno is being recalled, effective today). Both have had their struggles at the major league level, but both are considered prospects, Pie more than Cedeno (I mean, Ronny was REALLY bad early on this year, going 3-for-31 and making more than his share of fielding and baserunning errors). But I can think of a number of teams (White Sox, for example) that could use a young shortstop.
VEB: Do you like the Jason Kendall acquisition?
BCB: Absolutely. His veteran experience, his game-calling (not his "defense" per se, as he really doesn't throw that well any more), and his enthusiasm for coming to the Cubs (he was greeted with a standing ovation in his first at-bat at Wrigley Field, which he said was "really cool") ought to make him a Damian Miller-type acquisition for the ballclub.
Miller, I am convinced, by his veteran handling of what was then a very young staff of Wood, Prior and Zambrano, helped the Cubs to win in 2003 more than any of his statistics showed. Kendall could do the same, and they really gave up almost nothing to get him.
VEB: Which pitcher do you most fear a collapse from --- Marquis, Marshall, or Hill?
BCB: Well, I think I know what you're wanting to hear here -- that I expect Jason Marquis to collapse, thus allowing all of you Cardinal fans to fulfill your prophecy about his second-half collapses, as he had several times while pitching in St. Louis.
It's true that Marquis was pretty bad for almost two months. He seemed to get it back in his last start last Friday against the Diamondbacks. I think he's got it together, and you'll see it for yourselves on Thursday night.
The weakest link is probably Marshall, who has the least experience of any of the Cub starters, but he threw well on Sunday, despite losing to Arizona. Starting pitching has been a real strength for the Cubs -- all but six games (three by Angel Guzman, three by Wade Miller) have been started by the current starting five.
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Comments
Cards Fans...
by Tater01 on Jul 24, 2007 8:50 AM CDT 0 recs
larry
by jacob on Jul 24, 2007 8:53 AM CDT 0 recs
Nice answers and questions Al.
by Kinky Reggae on Jul 24, 2007 8:55 AM CDT 0 recs
good stuff
by mike on Jul 24, 2007 8:56 AM CDT 0 recs
I'm not so sure about
by TR on Jul 24, 2007 9:01 AM CDT 0 recs
Tired of the nice
They laugh at us behind our backs after shaking our hands. Spit on them, step on their throats, do not let them up.
Make fun of LaRussa's DUI. Make fun of Pujols pulling his love handles. Make fun of Edmonds and Rolen deteriorating right before our eyes.
Hate them. Hate them with every fiber of your being. They are the Yankees to our Red Sox.
And clog the toilets with toilet paper before you leave their stadium.
by lancaster99 on Jul 24, 2007 9:12 AM CDT 0 recs
I respectfully disagree.
I'd like to think that Cardinal and Cub fans don't.
And incidentally, a DUI is nothing to laugh about. Period. No matter who's involved.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 9:31 AM CDT
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Yeah, well,
Every Cardinal fan is basically Al Hrabosky. Keep that in mind next time you deal with one.
by lancaster99 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:03 AM CDT
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point well taken
I completely ignore the asswipe that is Hrabosky. As an announcer, if one cannot speak of good mind about the opponent, then that simply shows his ignorance. He'd make a good WhiteSox fan.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:12 AM CDT
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Wouldn't a lot of home runs...
by cwyers on
Jul 24, 2007 10:16 AM CDT
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At the right time,
So HR are great but if they're not at the right time, it doesn't necessarily translate into wins.
I like how the media talked about no HR in that 10-game stretch, like the sky was falling. So what. The Cubs were 7-3 in those 10 games. Wins is what counts. Hey, if they blast out 3 tonight and win, that's great. If they single and double Wells into submission, that's great too. All I want is more Cubs wins.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:22 AM CDT
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I'll admit it...
Why a City of 1MM people or less has a team that is always succeeding, while the NL rep from the nation's third largest city is hard pressed to have winning seasons, has always irked me.
Thanks, Al for the interesting reading today, in any case. Very insightful.
by TheEman on
Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT
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I understand what you mean...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_St._Louis
Plus, the Cardinals are a regional draw. Much like Wrigley is a destination spot for vacationers, Busch is a regular stop for people in a five or six state area. I personally know of season ticket holders that drive from as far away as 100 miles, one way, to get there.
Trust me, I feel your pain when it comes to being envious of their success. I moved here in 2000 and had to watch them enjoy post-season runs every year but one. But, when it comes to the Cardinals financial situation, I'd bet it's a lot closer to Atlanta than it is to Pittsburgh.
by STLCubFan on
Jul 24, 2007 2:47 PM CDT
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Most of my family
by gary varsho on
Jul 24, 2007 10:14 AM CDT
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I agree
My roommate freshman year in college was a Cardinal fan. We gave each other shit, but we certainly were able to watch games together civilly and we could talk baseball all the time.
Cardinal fans are nothing like Yankee or Red Sox fans.
by Josh77 on
Jul 24, 2007 2:12 PM CDT
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Please
by jshipp on
Jul 24, 2007 9:39 AM CDT
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I have to disagree too
That being said, I just can't find it in me to hate another human being over a baseball game. Life is too short for that. The guys cheering for the other team, be it the Cards, the Brewers, the Yankees, the White Sox, or whomever, are people just like us (in fact, they are often a lot like us - love baseball, love their team).
So my philosophy is to hope the Cubs beat the Cards 100% of the time, but when all that is over, I can still shake hands and respect the other guy, no matter where his loyalties lie.
by SuperContext on
Jul 24, 2007 9:46 AM CDT
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Mostly agree
by Jesse Guam on
Jul 24, 2007 9:55 AM CDT
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I agree
I used to hate Cubs fans because in 05 at old Busch I was at a Cubs-Cardinals game and a Cubs fan stood up and flipped the whole section off in front of a group of little kids.
I hated Cubs fans for that but I lost both my grandparents in 06 and it put into perspective that life's way too short to hate people over a game.
Also Al I have to compliment you on a very good blog.
by Calhoun on
Jul 24, 2007 10:32 AM CDT
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Very wise words.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 10:43 AM CDT
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So that's one...
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:33 AM CDT
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And people are letting these guys get to them?
GO CUBS!!!
by GoCubbies34 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:50 AM CDT
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I ignore 'em
Kind of funny how things change over time or how things are different with different sports.
This guy shows up in Chicago Stadium (70's and 80's) wearing a Blues shirt with that sign? He's either very brave or very, very stupid.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:54 AM CDT
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surprised by some of the venom
by erik on
Jul 24, 2007 12:47 PM CDT
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You're an embarassment...
by FriendlyCardFan on
Jul 24, 2007 12:49 PM CDT
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Surprised what you said about Z.....
Hm.
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on Jul 24, 2007 9:16 AM CDT 0 recs
I changed my mind because...
Sure, he's performing. But more than that, he seems a changed man. It's all positive.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 9:32 AM CDT
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We have to sign Z
by Ihatethecards on
Jul 24, 2007 9:53 AM CDT
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Z is night and day
If he is going to develop into a true ace, he needs to show he can be relatively consistant from April until October, and avoid the first 12 starts being far below his capabilities. IMO, you can't call him a premiere pitcher until he gets over this hump, and lets hope he can in a Cub uniform.
by MPH73 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:29 AM CDT
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Gotcha!
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on
Jul 24, 2007 11:55 AM CDT
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I still think
If we are going to sign him, I'd be doing anything possible to get it done right now, by the end of day tomorrow.
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 9:26 AM CDT 0 recs
Not while the team is contending.
I still think he'll stay.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 9:32 AM CDT
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I think....
by HIGGY on
Jul 24, 2007 9:49 AM CDT
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I sure hope so,
Bud lite was even rumored to have made a special trip to ChiTown this past spring to talk to the wonks in the ivory tower. His mission was to get "Z" signed so MLB doesn't have another Zito contract. If Zito is worth 126 for 7, what is "Z" worth?
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 9:53 AM CDT
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Not much BS in Chicago right now though...
Lee for 5 years.
Ramierez for 5 years.
Lilly and Marquis signings.
What type of signings have the Giants made that lean towards the future? None really...
by HIGGY on
Jul 24, 2007 9:59 AM CDT
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Good input, however
Not worried about the Giants signings pointing to their future. There's a data point out there and it's 126 for 7, given to a front-line starter.
Plus since "Z" is young, he's probably smart to stay in the 4-5 year range. This way he'll be in position for 1 more big FA contract before he's done. That's what Furcal did after '05. He signed for less total money from the Dodgers (though per season it was more than the Cubs offer) and 3 years. This way at the end of that contract, he's 31 and has a chance for one more big payday.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:07 AM CDT
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what?
by holycow07 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:09 AM CDT
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A Staff Ace
What worries me for the rest of the season is a LOOGY out of the bullpen. With Ohman and Eyre both struggling, Uncle Lou does not have much to choose from. I'd rather see a hard-throwing righty challenge a left-handed hitter than a weak LOOGY coming in on an important AB. Maybe Woods can be that guy.
by MarcV on Jul 24, 2007 9:43 AM CDT 0 recs
I hope your talking about Tiger Woods
by BillHoldenFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:08 AM CDT
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Thanks
by MarcV on
Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT
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Agreed....
by BillHoldenFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:51 AM CDT
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LOL
by gary varsho on
Jul 24, 2007 2:11 PM CDT
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Kendall/ OFF output
Also at what point do you think we need to make a move offensively? As Larry noted we haven't exactly been a great offensive club throughout the majority of the season and as the season has progressed we've traded away offense for defense at catcher
at some point dont you think that lost offense needs to be made up? Either in RF, CF, or maybe by playing Soto instead of Kendall?
who knows maybe Kendall gets it going... but everything in this years data suggests that's not likely
I agree with you to some extent that this team will be carried by their pitching, but Marquis and Marshall specifically are posting significantly better numbers (ERA) than their peripherals indicate, which USUALLY suggests a regression is coming....
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:10 AM CDT 0 recs
Geez!
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 10:15 AM CDT
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i understand
i'm asking "when would you"
what evidence would be enough for you to change your opinion on this acquisition?
that's all i'm asking
personally, i didnt like the acquisition and i would be willing to change my mind if i saw 3 solid weeks of Kendall getting on base and working pitchers (grinding through AB's)
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:19 AM CDT
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When to write him off,
The Cubs and SD are a combined 28-41 with Barrett behind the plate.
Without anyone named Barrett behind the plate, the Cubs and SD are a combined 76-49 (.608).
So there's my reference point, how much better can the Cubs be with Kendall behind the plate as opposed to Barrett.
The whole reason for Kendall is an experienced catcher that can work with the staff and not make them have to think out on the mound. If a pitcher is wondering about the catcher not being able to handle a 1-2 slider in the dirt with a guy on 3rd, his effectiveness goes down the toilet. I believe Kendall will work with the staff and will need 12-15 games behind the plate for us to see that start to happen.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:28 AM CDT
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so...
that seems silly
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:34 AM CDT
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A lot better
The Cubs got Kendall (cheaply BTW) because they think he won't have the defensive lapses Barrett had and he can call a better game.
And the comparison I was making was 400-ball with Barrett, 600-ball without him.
Think about that, 4 wins in 10 with Barrett. With anyone else, 6 wins in 10.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:39 AM CDT
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there's a lot more that goes into winning games
scheduling, pitching matchups, etc all play a factor
the Cubs went through an extremely LIGHT schedule loaded with PIT, WAS's, etc directly after Barrett was traded and that helped quite a bit
to judge one position simply by W's and L's when a player is silly because its not the only thing that determines whether a team wins and loses
i think we have a better record when Daryle Ward starts at 1B than when DLee does, does this mean we should start Ward at 1B?
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT
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I'm still giving Kendall a chance
I'm willing to wait for Kendall to have a minimum of 12 games behind the plate, more towards 15-16 before judgement can be passed.
I thought the deal was good when it was announced and still think so.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:46 AM CDT
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I don't go around
I'm going to assume he will succeed. If it comes to a point where he has become a failure, that point will make itself clear.
Before that, there's no point in even considering it.
by Josh77 on
Jul 24, 2007 2:15 PM CDT
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similarly
its easy to turn a blind eye to things when we're wining and cater to the mantra if it aint broke dont fix it...
but that's ignoring a much larger sample of games (the entire season) and instead choosing to focus on a smaller portion (say a 25 game span)
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:22 AM CDT
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Four games...
There are two huge problems with Kendall. One, he has clearly lost his bat speed. He can still make contact, but it's rarely with any authority. Two, some of his catching skills are clearly quite bad. Those are indicative of problems that he is unlikely to just snap out of.
Sure, the Cubs didn't give up much to get him, and it would be very difficult for him to be worse than what they had before, so I wouldn't say it was a mistake for the Cubs to have picked him up. However, he has done nothing to fix the glaring problem the Cubs have behind the plate, and I have little confidence that it's going to get any better.
by dvdmgsr on
Jul 24, 2007 10:25 AM CDT
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Let's see what happens...
As long as the team is winning, stick with what you've got. Obviously, Kendall's not likely to return in 2008, and then other options can be explored.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 10:28 AM CDT
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I'm surprised Soto..
by wicubfan on
Jul 24, 2007 11:25 AM CDT
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Well...
- Hill was out of options, couldn't go back to minors unless he passes waivers
- Kendall has experience and history of doing decently well in the majors
- Like you said, Soto only had 5 at bats. We can't be relying on him down the stretch, and we can always bring him back up if needed, but don't count on it. Let him get nurtured in AAA and we can utilize him next year.
by GoCubbies34 on
Jul 24, 2007 1:05 PM CDT
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Who else was out there...
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:31 AM CDT
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they may not NEED to have gotten anyone
why not play him?
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:35 AM CDT
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Because he's a Triple-A catcher!!!
I say no. There is more to being a winning ML catcher than a few stats on a Triple-A spreadsheet.
by Al on
Jul 24, 2007 10:45 AM CDT
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Exactly
Catching is one position where a stable and experienced guy is desired for the stretch run.
If all the starters are comfortable with Kendall back there, then Jimbo accomplished what he set out to do.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 10:48 AM CDT
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this "winning catcher" thing
i dont understand why we're working backwards in terms of evaluating the position
we're taking a team statistic and correlating it directly with ONE player's value
that's silly
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 10:55 AM CDT
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That's 7 games,
Call it silly, but the Cubs could not enter the stretch run with 2 back-ups, 'cuz that's what Hill and Bowen are, back-ups.
It's not like the Yanks were going to cough up Posada or the Cats giving us Pudge.
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 11:01 AM CDT
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and Kendall's #'s right now
that's my only point, that from the looks of it the trade was not an upgrade at Catcher
Kendall's been the 2nd worst offensive regular in the entire major leagues this year behind only Dionner Navarro
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 11:03 AM CDT
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OK...
by blackhawk24 on
Jul 24, 2007 11:04 AM CDT
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there probably isnt much else out there
we could've checked in on Ramon Hernandez i suppose
but their just werent a lot of options. I'm not suggesting Hendry made a bad deal, because he gave up very little to get Kendall and its a gamble worth taking
the only issue is Lou is in love with playing veterans and by giving him an established guy in Kendall he's going to ride him the rest of the year and we'll never get a chance to see if Soto can contribute right away. With Bowen and Hill on the roster, we could've see what Soto would've given us and then decided if Kendall was an upgrade
Kendall wasnt going anywhere and the A's were dying to unload him, so much that they were willing to pay money to unload him (something Beane almost never does)
by DartmouthCubsFan on
Jul 24, 2007 11:25 AM CDT
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Yet another variable
So to get Soto up here the Cubs either risk losing Hill to

