Five Questions: The Cardinals
With the Cubs meeting the Cardinals, beginning tonight, for the first time in three months, it seemed like the right time to exchange Five Questions with Larry over at Viva El Birdos. I'm posting both sets of questions and answers here, but you can also head over there and join the discussion. Despite the rivalry between the clubs, as I have written here many times, I have a great respect for Cardinal fans and their passion for their team, and Larry runs an excellent site and has become a friend.
First, my questions for him:
BCB: What is the single most important reason that the Cardinals sit five games under .500 and 8.5 games out of first place, not long after winning the World Series?
VEB: They haven't had Carpenter. He was the only certainty in the rotation heading into this season. Because of him, the Cardinals figured they could gamble on rotation slots 2 through 5 --- as long as a couple of the gambles worked out, they'd be solid at the top of the rotation. That's usually enough in the NL Central. When Carpenter got hurt, the whole formula fell apart.
Reasons 2 and 3 would be the precipitous dropoff in Edmonds' and Rolen's performance. Both have injury histories and are on the wrong side of 30, so it's not as if their declines were unforeseeable. The Cards gambled they could milk another good year out of both, and crapped out.
There are plenty of other things wrong with the team, too --- it's old, it's unmotivated, it's top heavy. But a healthy, productive ace can redeem a lot of sins. When Zambrano got hot (literally and figuratively), it turned the Cubs' season around. The Cards are the flip side of that coin --- without Carpenter to help mask their other shortcomings, they've been completely exposed.
BCB: What has to happen for the Cardinals to start winning again, and do you really think they still have a chance at getting back in the race? They haven't won more than four in a row all year, and that was in April.
VEB: The Cards are toast; their season ended when Carpenter had to be shut down for good. Without him, they just don't have the pitching to sustain any success over a long period of time. If he were returning to the rotation this week as anticipated, he would have given them a fighting chance; I wouldn't be conceding the season. But it is what it is. With Carpenter out, I wouldn't expect the Cardinals to win the division even if they somehow managed to sweep all 7 games against the Cubs and the Brewers this week.
BCB: Who would you trade, right now, either from the major league team or from the Cardinals' farm system, for immediate (or future) major league help, and who would you be targeting for that help?
VEB: I wrote about that here. The Cardinals desperately need players who are a) young, b) patient at the plate, and c) fast. They've got hacktastic sluggers galore; no need for any more of those. They need a 25-year-old Luis Castillo type, someone to get on base ahead of Albert.
Oh yeah, and they need 2 or 3 good starting pitchers.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals don't have the organizational depth to pull off an acquisition like that. Isringhausen might bring a decent return, and David Eckstein might have some narrow appeal to the right team; I can imagine the Cubs liking Eckstein, but they and the Cardinals are certainly not going to help one another. There is said to be a trade market for Anthony Reyes, but he's no longer regarded as premium material. The Cardinals would surely trade guys like Russ Springer and Braden Looper and Juan Encarnacion, but I wouldn't expect much in return for them.
BCB: Who is the most pleasant surprise for the Cardinals this year?
VEB: Ryan Franklin --- he and Isringhausen have done as much as anyone to keep the Cardinals from falling 15 games under .500.
BCB: Who is the guy who you'd most say "I told you so" about, in terms of not meeting expectations, this season?
VEB: In terms of NOT meeting expectations, it'd be Edmonds --- back in November I expressed the unpopular opinion that they should buy out his option year and sign somebody else to play center. But then, the guy I thought the Cardinals should target as Edmonds' replacement was Dave Roberts, and that's a "told you so" in the opposite direction, because Roberts has been nearly as injury-prone and unproductive this year as Edmonds.
The biggest "told you so" story of the season has been Anthony Reyes, who is as divisive a figure as Cardinal Nation has seen in some time. About half the VEB community (including me) thought he'd be pretty good, and the other half never thought much of him; he's 0-10 with an era north of 6. Told you so . . . .
And, here are Larry's questions for me, and my responses:
VEB: For all the money the Cubs spent on free agents from other teams, the Cubs' fortunes this year ultimately have mirrored Zambrano's --- when he was doing poorly, they stunk, and when he turned it around, so did the team. With all the financial commitments they've already made, can the team afford to keep him? From a won-loss standpoint, can they possibly afford to let him go?
BCB: No, there's really no way they can let Z go, from a won-loss standpoint OR a psychological standpoint. He's so popular among Cubs fans (and without Kerry Wood, he is also the senior Cub in length of service, having been here since 2001). He means so much to the ballclub in so many ways.
Can they afford him? Sure they can. The team's going to be sold, obviously, in the next year or so. But any new owner would love to have a drawing card like Z, and even if they have to pay him $15 million plus per year, that's ... well, not quite chump change, but close, to anyone who's going to have to pay close to $1 billion for the franchise.
Z has a shot at a 20-win season this year. Only one Cub has done that in the last 15 years (Jon Lieber, 2001).
VEB: The Cubs are still not scoring all that many runs. They're 14th in the league in walks, 12th in homers, and only 8th in runs scored. Short of a big trade, is there anything they can do to goose the offense?
BCB: The home runs will come, I believe. Jacque Jones won't have two HR all year (same number as Ryan Theriot, and that won't last). Derrek Lee was just starting to hit them again when he started his suspension. That alone will help the run-scoring. 8th in runs scored -- that's a bit misleading, as there is a big bunch of teams from 3rd (Milwaukee, 472) to 9th (New York, 448). If the Cubs have a couple of big offensive days, they could climb three or four spots.
The consistency of the pitching staff, both starting and relieving, is a big reason for the winning surge of late -- and if this team is going to win anything, it's going to be with pitching.
VEB: If the Cubs do make a trade, do they have any talent they can send the other way that's sufficient to land an impact player?
BCB: Sure -- Ronny Cedeno and Felix Pie, both now tearing up Triple-A (since I wrote this, Cedeno is being recalled, effective today). Both have had their struggles at the major league level, but both are considered prospects, Pie more than Cedeno (I mean, Ronny was REALLY bad early on this year, going 3-for-31 and making more than his share of fielding and baserunning errors). But I can think of a number of teams (White Sox, for example) that could use a young shortstop.
VEB: Do you like the Jason Kendall acquisition?
BCB: Absolutely. His veteran experience, his game-calling (not his "defense" per se, as he really doesn't throw that well any more), and his enthusiasm for coming to the Cubs (he was greeted with a standing ovation in his first at-bat at Wrigley Field, which he said was "really cool") ought to make him a Damian Miller-type acquisition for the ballclub.
Miller, I am convinced, by his veteran handling of what was then a very young staff of Wood, Prior and Zambrano, helped the Cubs to win in 2003 more than any of his statistics showed. Kendall could do the same, and they really gave up almost nothing to get him.
VEB: Which pitcher do you most fear a collapse from --- Marquis, Marshall, or Hill?
BCB: Well, I think I know what you're wanting to hear here -- that I expect Jason Marquis to collapse, thus allowing all of you Cardinal fans to fulfill your prophecy about his second-half collapses, as he had several times while pitching in St. Louis.
It's true that Marquis was pretty bad for almost two months. He seemed to get it back in his last start last Friday against the Diamondbacks. I think he's got it together, and you'll see it for yourselves on Thursday night.
The weakest link is probably Marshall, who has the least experience of any of the Cub starters, but he threw well on Sunday, despite losing to Arizona. Starting pitching has been a real strength for the Cubs -- all but six games (three by Angel Guzman, three by Wade Miller) have been started by the current starting five.
0 recs |
138 comments
Comments
Cards Fans...
by Tater01 on Jul 24, 2007 8:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
larry
by jacob on Jul 24, 2007 8:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice answers and questions Al.
by Kinky Reggae on Jul 24, 2007 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
good stuff
by mike on Jul 24, 2007 8:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure about
by TR on Jul 24, 2007 9:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Tired of the nice
They laugh at us behind our backs after shaking our hands. Spit on them, step on their throats, do not let them up.
Make fun of LaRussa's DUI. Make fun of Pujols pulling his love handles. Make fun of Edmonds and Rolen deteriorating right before our eyes.
Hate them. Hate them with every fiber of your being. They are the Yankees to our Red Sox.
And clog the toilets with toilet paper before you leave their stadium.
by lancaster99 on Jul 24, 2007 9:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I respectfully disagree.
I'd like to think that Cardinal and Cub fans don't.
And incidentally, a DUI is nothing to laugh about. Period. No matter who's involved.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, well,
Every Cardinal fan is basically Al Hrabosky. Keep that in mind next time you deal with one.
by lancaster99 on Jul 24, 2007 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
point well taken
I completely ignore the asswipe that is Hrabosky. As an announcer, if one cannot speak of good mind about the opponent, then that simply shows his ignorance. He'd make a good WhiteSox fan.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't a lot of home runs...
by cwyers on Jul 24, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the right time,
So HR are great but if they're not at the right time, it doesn't necessarily translate into wins.
I like how the media talked about no HR in that 10-game stretch, like the sky was falling. So what. The Cubs were 7-3 in those 10 games. Wins is what counts. Hey, if they blast out 3 tonight and win, that's great. If they single and double Wells into submission, that's great too. All I want is more Cubs wins.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll admit it...
Why a City of 1MM people or less has a team that is always succeeding, while the NL rep from the nation's third largest city is hard pressed to have winning seasons, has always irked me.
Thanks, Al for the interesting reading today, in any case. Very insightful.
by TheEman on Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand what you mean...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_St._Louis
Plus, the Cardinals are a regional draw. Much like Wrigley is a destination spot for vacationers, Busch is a regular stop for people in a five or six state area. I personally know of season ticket holders that drive from as far away as 100 miles, one way, to get there.
Trust me, I feel your pain when it comes to being envious of their success. I moved here in 2000 and had to watch them enjoy post-season runs every year but one. But, when it comes to the Cardinals financial situation, I'd bet it's a lot closer to Atlanta than it is to Pittsburgh.
by STLCubFan on Jul 24, 2007 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most of my family
by gary varsho on Jul 24, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
My roommate freshman year in college was a Cardinal fan. We gave each other shit, but we certainly were able to watch games together civilly and we could talk baseball all the time.
Cardinal fans are nothing like Yankee or Red Sox fans.
by Josh77 on Jul 24, 2007 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Please
by jshipp on Jul 24, 2007 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to disagree too
That being said, I just can't find it in me to hate another human being over a baseball game. Life is too short for that. The guys cheering for the other team, be it the Cards, the Brewers, the Yankees, the White Sox, or whomever, are people just like us (in fact, they are often a lot like us - love baseball, love their team).
So my philosophy is to hope the Cubs beat the Cards 100% of the time, but when all that is over, I can still shake hands and respect the other guy, no matter where his loyalties lie.
by SuperContext on Jul 24, 2007 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mostly agree
by Jesse Guam on Jul 24, 2007 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I used to hate Cubs fans because in 05 at old Busch I was at a Cubs-Cardinals game and a Cubs fan stood up and flipped the whole section off in front of a group of little kids.
I hated Cubs fans for that but I lost both my grandparents in 06 and it put into perspective that life's way too short to hate people over a game.
Also Al I have to compliment you on a very good blog.
by Calhoun on Jul 24, 2007 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very wise words.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So that's one...
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And people are letting these guys get to them?
GO CUBS!!!
by GoCubbies34 on Jul 24, 2007 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I ignore 'em
Kind of funny how things change over time or how things are different with different sports.
This guy shows up in Chicago Stadium (70's and 80's) wearing a Blues shirt with that sign? He's either very brave or very, very stupid.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
99 percent of them
by lancaster99 on Jul 24, 2007 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
surprised by some of the venom
by erik on Jul 24, 2007 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're an embarassment...
by FriendlyCardFan on Jul 24, 2007 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprised what you said about Z.....
Hm.
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on Jul 24, 2007 9:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I changed my mind because...
Sure, he's performing. But more than that, he seems a changed man. It's all positive.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We have to sign Z
by Ihatethecards on Jul 24, 2007 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Z is night and day
If he is going to develop into a true ace, he needs to show he can be relatively consistant from April until October, and avoid the first 12 starts being far below his capabilities. IMO, you can't call him a premiere pitcher until he gets over this hump, and lets hope he can in a Cub uniform.
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha!
Z. He doesn't need an exclamtion point. He is one.
by PopeFlick on Jul 24, 2007 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still think
If we are going to sign him, I'd be doing anything possible to get it done right now, by the end of day tomorrow.
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not while the team is contending.
I still think he'll stay.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think....
by HIGGY on Jul 24, 2007 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sure hope so,
Bud lite was even rumored to have made a special trip to ChiTown this past spring to talk to the wonks in the ivory tower. His mission was to get "Z" signed so MLB doesn't have another Zito contract. If Zito is worth 126 for 7, what is "Z" worth?
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not much BS in Chicago right now though...
Lee for 5 years.
Ramierez for 5 years.
Lilly and Marquis signings.
What type of signings have the Giants made that lean towards the future? None really...
by HIGGY on Jul 24, 2007 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good input, however
Not worried about the Giants signings pointing to their future. There's a data point out there and it's 126 for 7, given to a front-line starter.
Plus since "Z" is young, he's probably smart to stay in the 4-5 year range. This way he'll be in position for 1 more big FA contract before he's done. That's what Furcal did after '05. He signed for less total money from the Dodgers (though per season it was more than the Cubs offer) and 3 years. This way at the end of that contract, he's 31 and has a chance for one more big payday.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what?
by holycow07 on Jul 24, 2007 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Staff Ace
What worries me for the rest of the season is a LOOGY out of the bullpen. With Ohman and Eyre both struggling, Uncle Lou does not have much to choose from. I'd rather see a hard-throwing righty challenge a left-handed hitter than a weak LOOGY coming in on an important AB. Maybe Woods can be that guy.
by SpudV on Jul 24, 2007 9:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope your talking about Tiger Woods
by BillHoldenFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
by SpudV on Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed....
by BillHoldenFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
by gary varsho on Jul 24, 2007 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall/ OFF output
Also at what point do you think we need to make a move offensively? As Larry noted we haven't exactly been a great offensive club throughout the majority of the season and as the season has progressed we've traded away offense for defense at catcher
at some point dont you think that lost offense needs to be made up? Either in RF, CF, or maybe by playing Soto instead of Kendall?
who knows maybe Kendall gets it going... but everything in this years data suggests that's not likely
I agree with you to some extent that this team will be carried by their pitching, but Marquis and Marshall specifically are posting significantly better numbers (ERA) than their peripherals indicate, which USUALLY suggests a regression is coming....
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Geez!
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i understand
i'm asking "when would you"
what evidence would be enough for you to change your opinion on this acquisition?
that's all i'm asking
personally, i didnt like the acquisition and i would be willing to change my mind if i saw 3 solid weeks of Kendall getting on base and working pitchers (grinding through AB's)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When to write him off,
The Cubs and SD are a combined 28-41 with Barrett behind the plate.
Without anyone named Barrett behind the plate, the Cubs and SD are a combined 76-49 (.608).
So there's my reference point, how much better can the Cubs be with Kendall behind the plate as opposed to Barrett.
The whole reason for Kendall is an experienced catcher that can work with the staff and not make them have to think out on the mound. If a pitcher is wondering about the catcher not being able to handle a 1-2 slider in the dirt with a guy on 3rd, his effectiveness goes down the toilet. I believe Kendall will work with the staff and will need 12-15 games behind the plate for us to see that start to happen.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so...
that seems silly
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot better
The Cubs got Kendall (cheaply BTW) because they think he won't have the defensive lapses Barrett had and he can call a better game.
And the comparison I was making was 400-ball with Barrett, 600-ball without him.
Think about that, 4 wins in 10 with Barrett. With anyone else, 6 wins in 10.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there's a lot more that goes into winning games
scheduling, pitching matchups, etc all play a factor
the Cubs went through an extremely LIGHT schedule loaded with PIT, WAS's, etc directly after Barrett was traded and that helped quite a bit
to judge one position simply by W's and L's when a player is silly because its not the only thing that determines whether a team wins and loses
i think we have a better record when Daryle Ward starts at 1B than when DLee does, does this mean we should start Ward at 1B?
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still giving Kendall a chance
I'm willing to wait for Kendall to have a minimum of 12 games behind the plate, more towards 15-16 before judgement can be passed.
I thought the deal was good when it was announced and still think so.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't go around
I'm going to assume he will succeed. If it comes to a point where he has become a failure, that point will make itself clear.
Before that, there's no point in even considering it.
by Josh77 on Jul 24, 2007 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
similarly
its easy to turn a blind eye to things when we're wining and cater to the mantra if it aint broke dont fix it...
but that's ignoring a much larger sample of games (the entire season) and instead choosing to focus on a smaller portion (say a 25 game span)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Four games...
There are two huge problems with Kendall. One, he has clearly lost his bat speed. He can still make contact, but it's rarely with any authority. Two, some of his catching skills are clearly quite bad. Those are indicative of problems that he is unlikely to just snap out of.
Sure, the Cubs didn't give up much to get him, and it would be very difficult for him to be worse than what they had before, so I wouldn't say it was a mistake for the Cubs to have picked him up. However, he has done nothing to fix the glaring problem the Cubs have behind the plate, and I have little confidence that it's going to get any better.
by dvdmgsr on Jul 24, 2007 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see what happens...
As long as the team is winning, stick with what you've got. Obviously, Kendall's not likely to return in 2008, and then other options can be explored.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised Soto..
by wicubfan on Jul 24, 2007 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
- Hill was out of options, couldn't go back to minors unless he passes waivers
- Kendall has experience and history of doing decently well in the majors
- Like you said, Soto only had 5 at bats. We can't be relying on him down the stretch, and we can always bring him back up if needed, but don't count on it. Let him get nurtured in AAA and we can utilize him next year.
by GoCubbies34 on Jul 24, 2007 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who else was out there...
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they may not NEED to have gotten anyone
why not play him?
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he's a Triple-A catcher!!!
I say no. There is more to being a winning ML catcher than a few stats on a Triple-A spreadsheet.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Catching is one position where a stable and experienced guy is desired for the stretch run.
If all the starters are comfortable with Kendall back there, then Jimbo accomplished what he set out to do.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this "winning catcher" thing
i dont understand why we're working backwards in terms of evaluating the position
we're taking a team statistic and correlating it directly with ONE player's value
that's silly
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's 7 games,
Call it silly, but the Cubs could not enter the stretch run with 2 back-ups, 'cuz that's what Hill and Bowen are, back-ups.
It's not like the Yanks were going to cough up Posada or the Cats giving us Pudge.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Kendall's #'s right now
that's my only point, that from the looks of it the trade was not an upgrade at Catcher
Kendall's been the 2nd worst offensive regular in the entire major leagues this year behind only Dionner Navarro
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there probably isnt much else out there
we could've checked in on Ramon Hernandez i suppose
but their just werent a lot of options. I'm not suggesting Hendry made a bad deal, because he gave up very little to get Kendall and its a gamble worth taking
the only issue is Lou is in love with playing veterans and by giving him an established guy in Kendall he's going to ride him the rest of the year and we'll never get a chance to see if Soto can contribute right away. With Bowen and Hill on the roster, we could've see what Soto would've given us and then decided if Kendall was an upgrade
Kendall wasnt going anywhere and the A's were dying to unload him, so much that they were willing to pay money to unload him (something Beane almost never does)
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet another variable
So to get Soto up here the Cubs either risk losing Hill to a waiver pick, he's traded or the Cubs carry three catchers.
I think Lou pushed Barrett out. I do like his willingness to play the youngsters. Who thought back when the Cubs were in Mesa that Fontenot would be up here?
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right on Al...
It took Piniella 8 weeks to push Barrett out the door after he was here for 3 1/2 years, do you think he is going to finish the year with a rookie catcher?
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one...
In any case, if Kendall doesn't start to show something, the Cubs should DFA him and bring Soto up. In the meanwhile, we just have to hope that the team can endure sub-replacement level performance from their catchers.
by dvdmgsr on Jul 24, 2007 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More than enough time.
by eamuscatuli1881 on Jul 24, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The guy has played 1,600
I hate to tell ya, but player evaluations don't quite work that way, not in the big leagues at least.
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same thing happen to J. Jones as well...
by HIGGY on Jul 24, 2007 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall
No one will ever confuse Jason Kendall with Johnny Bench, but the ability to be the backstop that the pitchers want to throw to; especially a slider in the dirt on a 1-2 pitch and a runner on 3rd will help the Cubs significantly.
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that 03 team
they could afford that
this team is above average in LF, 3B, 1B
average at 2B
below average at SS, C, CF, RF
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damian Miller being weak in 2003...
Miller had an OPS+ of 78 in 2003. Kendall is sitting at 44. I'll be quite satisfied if Kendall can bring his numbers up to where Miller's were in 2003.
by dvdmgsr on Jul 24, 2007 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
It's interesting, Al, that you mention riding him toward a hopeful championship this year and then let him leave if he's going to leave. We may not have a choice otherwise, but it'd be extremely heartbreaking, and I suppose that makes it perfect for us Cub fans, if we were to come close again, fail, and then lose our best pitcher to FA. Ugh. The thought of it makes me want to toss my Pop Tarts.
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 10:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a valid point.
I think he's staying. The only question is when he'll sign.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kendall and Z
Get those signs ready for the "Sign Z Please" campaign, 8/3-8/5 against the Mets!
by TheEman on Jul 24, 2007 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the sake of us all
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 10:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Soto
Frankly, I'm more concerned with getting one more bat in RF and another arm in the pen.
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The whole fan-hatred thing
Hell, my wife is a big Packers fan; I'm a Bear fan, though we're both from Chicago. You make your deals, that's all. I told her I'd let my kids be raised as Packers fans as long as they were also Cub fans, and that's what we're doing. And I still get to be a Bear fan, too. But it's all just good times. There is far too much crap in the world to take anything too seriously.
by Kegler on Jul 24, 2007 10:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Winning it=complacency with players?
Kenny Williams shook things up a bit going for Vasquez after the Sox won it all but kept the everyday lineup pretty much intact (minus Frank Thomas, adding Thome was big upgrade there)...some of those players aren't producing like they did in '05.
How well I remember the Cubs brought back all their key components, especially pitchers, after the big '84 season--Eckersley, Trout and maybe another was a free agent (they did dump Lee Smith though, which turned out to be a huge mistake)...and in '98 after that team snuck in, they brought back Lance Johnson, Gary Gaetti, Glenallen, etc., and it turned out they didn't have much left in the tank.
So, you gotta keep shakin it up it seems, but with the right moves...Cards inactivity and failure to do anything to solidify the pitching staff (besides resigning Mulder and extending Carpenter) is really haunting them now and they look like a pretty bad team for the forseeable future.
by writerinwrigley on Jul 24, 2007 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think complacency...
What it comes down to, I think, are that the Cardinals had three keys to success coming into this season:
- Carpenter holding down the rotation.
- The rest of the scrubs they brought in to pitch being roughly acceptable and putting the ball into play against a stellar defense.
- Pujols, Rolen and Edmonds providing enough offense to win.
Carpenter's elbow has pretty much disintegrated, the scrubs they brought in are pretty much what you would expect and the Cardinals defense is attrocious, and none of those three are having as big of years as they have had before. But you could live with the offense if the starting rotation could put anything together; they can't. Duncan's magic pitcher reclaimation revolves around "pitching to contact;" it doesn't work well when nobody out on the field can catch the ball. Miles has started more games at short than you can justify in any sort of a playoff race and the outfield has been pretty attrocious defensively from the word go, if I recall correctly.
by cwyers on Jul 24, 2007 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Woooah....
Everything else you said though, I agree with. Our defense has been disgusting this year, our pitching can't string together quality starts, and our offense is very hot and cold.
by FriendlyCardFan on Jul 24, 2007 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course the line about Carpenter...
As for the scrubs... I suppose I'll give you Adam Wainwright. Although the numbers he's put up this year are more 2nd-3rd starterish, as he's just barely above the league average in performance. Reyes, so far as I can discern (and I'm willing to accept that I'm wrong here, as I don't follow it as closely as Cards fans, I'm sure) doesn't really count because LaRussa and Duncan don't seem to really want him, and they don't seem to know what to do with him when he's thrust upon them.
by cwyers on Jul 24, 2007 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't know if has been mentioned here already but
Our team's ERA has gone from 9th to 3rd in MLB, since his departure.
Coincidence? I think not. The trade for Kendall is just another Pinella move that was good for baseball. He is not flashy and is not going to go back to All-Star numbers, but he is good for the pitching staff, and pitching wins down the stretch.
by louslovechild on Jul 24, 2007 11:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow!!!!
by deadcatbounce on Jul 24, 2007 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iirc SD's record w/ Barrett
by CubFaninCA on Jul 24, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe, but Atlanta is getting hot and....
They are the team to worry about.
by louslovechild on Jul 24, 2007 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,,,
by CubFaninCA on Jul 24, 2007 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Braves...
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
doubt that
by CubFaninCA on Jul 24, 2007 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My two cents say
by mrcubsfan on Jul 24, 2007 11:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sori
by zevkalman on Jul 24, 2007 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you're right
by mrcubsfan on Jul 24, 2007 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by holycow07 on Jul 24, 2007 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great story: Just got back from a weekend trip
So, I decided to have a little fun with him. All my friends were in on it with me for the entertainment value of it all. I bought a HUGE Cubs logo magnet before I made the trip. First... I put it right on the fridge during the first night there. It lasted about an hour before he discovered it and ripped it off and threw it at me.
That night, when he went to sleep, I put it on the back of his SUV, knowing he would have to drive to work the next morning. Sure enough, he drove all the way to work (about a 30 minute drive) without knowing... until he walked into the front door of his office, where he saw his brother (they own a biz together) chuckling and slapping his knee. He went back outside and threw it in the trash. We stopped by his office and recovered it (without him knowing). All night long he was saying, "It's over... it's in the trash."
Low and behold, Monday morning when he left for work, I put it on his garage door, so the whole neighborhood could see it on his house. Wish I could've seen his face when he got home that night!
by SackMan on Jul 24, 2007 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great Story!
About a year ago, I purchased a little Cubs jersey on eBay for him. While I was watching him one day, I took him to my parent's house where we took several dozen pictures of him running around in the jersey. We picked out our favorites and got really creative with them.
With the magic of a computer and good printer, we made sheets of stickers, magnets, window clingys, signs, and the icing on the cake, a onesie with an iron on transfer of him in the jersey (which we hid under his shirt and sent him home in).
We hid our creations everywhere. On the inside of the lid of his formula can, in the bottom of his diaper bag, on the windows of their apartment etc. It took him nearly a week to find all of them. And I got a call or an e mail about each one. Man it was fun! I know my brother can't wait for me to start a family!
by love the ivy on Jul 24, 2007 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh man... that was awesome
I originally wanted to buy a sheet of cubs stickers to play with... thinking I could've put them all over the house in hidden spots. But, I never made it to one of the shops across from the ballpark where they might sell stickers. I settled for the magnet at Dominick's. I also bought a Cubs baby bib there... thought the little tike is only 3 months old. So, I'll save that one for later!
by SackMan on Jul 24, 2007 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AWESOME!
by TheEman on Jul 24, 2007 1:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Larry over at Viva El Birdos
But he's still a damn dirty Cards fan. :P
Well done both of you guys!
by Joe on Jul 24, 2007 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agreed with all your answers Al
I really believe Marshal has his head screwed on more straight than Hill.
I think Rich has a little more talent but when his curve ball isn't working he seems to freak out and start giving up Home Runs.
Marshal has found ways to get ground balls even with his curve ball not working.
So if any of our starters start to drop off I think Hill will because he struggles more when he doesn't have have A-Game.
by Joe on Jul 24, 2007 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Strong agreement regarding Marshall
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do people have against Marshall?
by GoCubbies34 on Jul 24, 2007 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I said that because...
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill may have pitched more games
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
"Actually, the overmatched offense should have come as no surprise with Sean Marshall on the mound. While he was in the game during his last five starts, Marshall has received two or fewer runs. In his four losses, Marshall has received a total of three runs."
by GoCubbies34 on Jul 24, 2007 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
my comments on Marshall
to sum it up, Marshall's pitching well above his peripheral indicators and isnt this good. He's a very valuable commodity to the Cubs and someone that makes for a really good back end of the rotation guy #4 or #5 with a ceiling of a #3 on a championship caliber team... playing in the NL Central he can be a servicable #3, but match him up against AL lineups and things can get ugly quickly because he surrenders too many HR's and doesnt K enough guys
Hill's a much better pitcher and I think most people that are "down" on Marshall are only "down on him" in the sense that they dont think he's a top of the rotation starter
Sean Marshall:
Marshall strung together another quality start allowing only 2 earned runs in 6 innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He lowered his ERA to 3.25 on the season and appears to be showing genuine improvements in his K and BB Rates along with a decreased HR Rate in comparison to his rookie campaign in 2006. While the improvements in Marshall are noticeable, I still don't believe he's much more of a spot starting option in Mixed formats and a decent back-end of the rotation guy in deeper leagues. This is a bit against the grain because his peripherals actually do support some of the improvements he's made this season, however I see a trend that reminds me more of 2006. Marshall struck out 22 batters and walked 5 in his first 20 innings and since then has only struck out 23 and walked 16 in his last 43 2/3 innings for a K Rate of .53 and a walk rate of .36. This is a bit more in line with last year's numbers and his current .77 Strand Rate is unsustainable given the low K rates. Marshall's the perfect sell high candidate in my mind and someone that will finish with an ERA closer to 4.25 than 3.25 this season.
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hill get's de-railed
To me, Marshall may not have the big bighting curve, but his fastball is probably a tad better than Hills. He also strikes me as a kid who can go with the flow, and does not get rattled as easily as Hill.
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball insider says:
That statement could be about Both Hill and Marshall.
Hell they are virtually the same pitcher.
But the one thing that the numbers and "experts" don't understand is how some kids handle pressure.
I have seen Marshall lose more one run ball games in the last two years than any other Cub Pitcher.
And in every game the Kid doesn't lose his head or try to do too much, he just keeps the game close.
It is that that kind of heart that stats can't show and that is why I think Marshall is the better of the two Young Lefties.
by Joe on Jul 24, 2007 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, correct me if I'm wrong here...
I might even go so far as to say that you're trying to show that statistics don't measure everything with... a statistic.
My head is starting to hurt.
by cwyers on Jul 24, 2007 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great
Stat Geeks I have thrown down the gauntlet will you answer the call?
by Joe on Jul 24, 2007 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i suppose
of course it would have no statistical evidence behind it
so it would be an opinion with little "hard data" to stand on
but yeh it "could be said about Hill"
Hill's peripherals suggest he's pitching closer to an actual ERA in the range of 3.40-3.60
Marshall's recent trend especially the declining K Rates suggest he's more likely to be somewhere in the 4.00-4.25 range
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 24, 2007 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
K rates to ERA are always right!
Tom Glavin
by Joe on Jul 24, 2007 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
guys like Glavine
hell i'm sure for every 1 guy having success striking out less than .65 batters/inning i could give you hmmm... i dont know maybe 100 that dont
maybe even 1000...
by DartmouthCubsFan on Jul 25, 2007 7:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chad Bradford
Baltimore has expressed interest in moving him. Not sure what it would take to get him or his contract numbers. I think he would fit into the bullpen nicely being a groundball pitcher.
by Tangled Up In Blue on Jul 24, 2007 2:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I've always liked Bradford.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my family,
Being in west central IL, it is an interesting section of baseball fans. I am guessing around 45% Cubs, 45% Cards, and 10% White Sox fans.
My Cubs wired mind can't grasp how anyone could love a team other than the Cubs or that they could love their team more passionately than Cubs fans love their team. I never hear another ball park full of fans live and die with each pitch, with each hit, the way we do.
However, the diversity makes conversation more interesting, victories more sweet, and our loses more humbling. And poking fun at each other's teams is great fun. Afterall, how you can pass up making jokes about a guy with the last name of Pujols???? But fair means fair, if I can it dish, they can dish it.
by love the ivy on Jul 24, 2007 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A bit off topic...
by love the ivy on Jul 24, 2007 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Usuallly...
by cwyers on Jul 24, 2007 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
by love the ivy on Jul 24, 2007 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am the proud new owner
by jshipp on Jul 24, 2007 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Cool...
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I wanted an English Bulldog
by jshipp on Jul 24, 2007 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That would be cool,
by blackhawk24 on Jul 24, 2007 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a boot
by TheEman on Jul 24, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brace yourself
by MPH73 on Jul 24, 2007 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bobby Kielty--DFA
Can he play RF?? If not, forget it.
by writerinwrigley on Jul 24, 2007 4:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
Last year he hit .270/.329/.441 overall and .325/.358/.607 vs. LHP. For his career he is .296/.379/.509 vs. LHP.
Go, Hendry, go! Get this guy. He's perfect for a short-term fix and would likely cost nothing.
by Al on Jul 24, 2007 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he says boston interested
Wonder if we could ever do a deal with Theo?? after the Nomar trade--we gave up a good player in Brendan Harris but Beltran never materialized--neither side too badly burned.
When's last time a major Cub-Card trade?? Sure been a while...Kessinger for....? A few players have jumped via free agency, but not too many...
by writerinwrigley on Jul 24, 2007 4:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Todd Ziele
by TheEman on Jul 24, 2007 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i love...
i truly hate the cardinals. and yes, in a "yankees/red sox" kind of way.
by jinxproof on Jul 25, 2007 8:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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