Wild Card coming out of the Central?

by pageian on Jul 5, 2007 4:40 PM CDT Comment 11 comments

Interesting point from Ken Rosenthal in this article.

# Don't rule out the possibility of the NL wild card coming out of the Central division. The Phillies and Braves have faded in the East, and the second-best team in the West might not be better than the Brewers or Cubs.

Keep in mind also that the Central includes three of the league's four worst teams -- the Astros, Pirates and Reds. After Tuesday, the Brewers face those clubs 30 times, the Cubs 33. And the other team in the division, the Cardinals, isn't exactly imposing . . .

I have to believe he's got a point. I still think the Cubs have as much chance of winning the Central as the Brewers. Yeah, it'll be tough but it can be done. And really, I don't see the Dodgers or the Diamondbacks as being superior teams to the Cubs or Brewers. I do think the Fathers are a better team than those four and that they'll likely win the West. As far as the East, I'm surprised that the Braves have as good a record as they do, though I think they started out a little better than they really are. Philadelphia probably belongs in the discussion with the Cubs/Brewers/Dodgers/Dbacks but I think they lack the pitching they need given their home park.

So really you could look at it as the Cubs have a 50% chance at winning their division (or maybe 40%) and if they don't then they still have a 25% chance at the wild card.

FYI, for all the haters (you know who you are) who'll accuse me of drinking the Kool-aid (yawn) or want to know who my crack dealer is, you should probably know that I just pulled these numbers out of thin air without any statistical reasoning or logic attached. Let's hear your numbers.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I think.....

...it is far too early to say the Wild Card won't come out of any particular Divsion, so I would agree, it could be the N.L. Central.

Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Jul 5, 2007 4:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

At this point

I agree that it's too early but at least we can tell now which teams won't likely be in the WC discussion, and at least we know that the Central isn't necessarily a one playoff team division. That helps.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jul 5, 2007 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would think it's funny

if the WC came out of the NL Central after all the 'Comedy Central' stuff and how it's considered the worst division in Baseball.

Not to say that it isn't the worst, just would think it's funny that's all

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Jul 5, 2007 4:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably a 10-20% chance

I see the Dodgers cooling off in 2nd half...if you can get to 10 games over .500 will have a shot at the wild-card not gonna be a clear-cut winner this year as in past...too much parity in the NL no teams (except Cincy and Wash) that bad.

Even SF is a little scary with some of its pitchers...Cards if they get Mulder and Carpenter back won't be pushovers either in 2nd half...

Best teams in NL?? 1. Padres (despite lack of offense) 2. Mets (esp. when get Pedro back and make other moves, as anticipated) 3. Brewers 4. Dodgers and then it's totally up for grabs IMHO...Cubs right there with Ariz, Atlanta, or will be in the end, I think.

by writerinwrigley on Jul 5, 2007 5:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

SF

isn't really scary to me given their age. They are a total collapse waiting to happen I think, and I can't see them putting together any kind of run unless their young pitchers and Zito all get really hot at the same time.

I don't think Pedro is going to be much of a factor either. He probably won't be very good, or at least won't be much better than whoever he bumps out of the rotation. Next year he might be descent but I think 2nd half this year is a little early for him to dominate like he used to.

I'm not sold on AZ either, I didn't see them being as good as they are when the year started and they seem to be a team that has a better record than they should. Run differential, RJ's back again etc...

Assuming that the Padres and Mets get two of the four playoff spots that leaves the Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers as legitimate candidates and Phillies, Braves, Dbacks as potential candidates.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jul 5, 2007 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Support for this idea

comes if you take a look at the expanded NL standings. The Dodgers are outperforming their Pythagorean win total by two games, while the Cubs are underperforming theirs by three. In the "Pythagorean standings" therefore, the Cubs should be a half game back of the Brewers, and a half game back of the Dodgers in the Wild Card hunt.

The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

by scareduck on Jul 5, 2007 7:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Playoff Odds

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds suggest that the Cubs have a better chance of winning the division than winning the wildcard (likely coming out of the West). Overall, just under 40% chance of making the playoffs in one form or another.

Interesting stuff

Dang...I just want something to root for in September

by GamePenguin on Jul 5, 2007 9:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Advantage

I think we have a slight wild-card advantage.

The Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks will be playing each other all year. They will be trading wins/losses. We need to take advantage of that.

I can't see the Padres and Dodgers both having 90+ wins. I think Dodgers will crumble and Padres become a very dominant team who wins the division.
Arizona continues to play solid but not as solid as The Cubs.

by ak123 on Jul 5, 2007 10:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Arizona

seems to be playing over their head to me. Big negative run differential, I just don't see how they can keep winning games when they're getting outscored. Maybe they will as their young players improve but young players on every team they play will be improving too so...........

I'm not sure the Dodgers will crumble and I can't see the Pads becoming a very dominant team with that offense but I think you're right, they are the better team. The Dodgers do have quite a bit more to offer at the trade deadline though so they could close the gap. I think it's best for us is they decide to hang on to their good young prospect this year and not get a really good rent-a-player for the second half.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jul 6, 2007 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers

Living out here in LA, I really don't fear the Dodgers, though they have a solid starting staff and a very good bullpen. But they simply can't hit anything other than singles. Even Furcal isn't showing any power, and Nomar can barely get the ball out of the infield. Martin is a stud, if you're depending on Luis Gonzalez and Jeff Kent to drive in JUAN PIERRE FOR GOD's SAKE, I just can't believe you're going far. And past Brad Penny, possibly Lowe, that staff might come back to Earth. Oh, and they're managed by Grady Little.

So the WC isn't an unreasonable thought, though it would be nice to just win the division. The brewers will take some catching, but having watched them closely recently, their defense is AWFUL. Really could cost them.

by SamFels on Jul 5, 2007 10:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The Dodgers have their faults. One thing to look for with them is if Brad Penny remembers he's Brad Penny. Wolf just went on the dl, Schmidt is done for the year, Lowe is good but maybe not a real ace. They've got a good bullpen and some young pitching but without Penny's good first half they wouldn't be where they are. Maybe it's his year, or maybe he comes back to earth a la Jason Marquis.

And what do you expect from their offense? The signed Juan Pierre for Gods sake, they get what they deserve. If they wanted no power, low obp offensive players then they can have them. Loney will help probably but I'm guess he won't end up the year hitting .380 so he probably isn't the answer.

Coletti will be active at the trade deadline for sure so they could improve themselves, though I've never really been impressed with his trades before. Seems to take the shotgun approach, trade for all the spare part you can and see what hits the target.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jul 6, 2007 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs