85 wins...

by stelmodad on Aug 13, 2007 10:13 AM CDT

Not sure it's worth a diary post in and of itself but I started looking at the rest of the season's schedule and came up with what seemed like a realistic 25 additional wins - putting our boys at 85 by year's end.

Boy, I'd sure like to have had a few more back from this road trip. Moving from 85 to 88 would be a hole lot more comfortable, but again, the 25 I'm hoping for is still many days away.

In looking at the Brewers schedule they could easily have another 24 wins left, putting them at 86.

I'm not a doomsday kind of guy, heck I cheer for the Cubs, but it'd be great to see our boys in blue show me that they've got some fire in them and beat some folks up on this upcoming home stand.

Quick notes: glad to see Ward back, my heart goes out to the Floyd family, very nice defense JJ, and stay away from thin air Rich and Kerry.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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yeah

84-88 wins will win the division. both teams are really starting to slow down

Dinosaurs? "Didn't exist. You can't say there were dinosaurs when you never saw them." -Carl Everett

by NDcubsfan on Aug 13, 2007 10:34 AM CDT reply actions

yea

but stl isnt...we need to pick it up before they move ahead of us

by tbizzle83 on Aug 13, 2007 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions

That is so true

while we looked to be extremely hot for 2 months it now looks as though the Cards are getting warmer. Very important to win the series against them coming up. They are calling their young call ups from Memphis the Memphis Mafia they way they have taken over after all the injuries. We can only hope the pitching stinks for the rest of the season for the Cards.

This is Harry Carray, goodbye from Wrigley Field and So Long Everybody.

by mrcubsfan on Aug 13, 2007 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Thus...

... imperative to take 3 of 4 from the Cardinals this weekend.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 13, 2007 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

cards

anyone noticed these youngsters they have brought up. wow where did they come from.ive said it all long they are not oughtta of it. i dont wanna put the kiss of death on us but a right foot needs to be planted firmly on someones throat this weekend. i'll end this post with this--hopefully the cards sweep the cubs this weekend in convincing fashion.

Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Aug 13, 2007 10:13 PM CDT up reply actions

You did mean...

... the Cubs sweeping the Cardinals.

Right?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 14, 2007 4:05 AM CDT up reply actions

shhhhhhh al shhhh

no i meant it how i wrote it. wink wink

Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Aug 14, 2007 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions

They aren't?

The Cardinals are 5-6 in August, so I guess you are correct to an extent. They are not slowing down. They are continuing to play mediocre baseball, at best.

The only way that Cards catch the Cubs or Brewers is if one of them completely bombs.

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Aug 13, 2007 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions

stelmoDad

I'd be really curious to see how you came by those numbers. If you could show a breakdown I'd really be interested in seeing that.

AC 00 00 00 - BELIEVE

by mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Aug 13, 2007 10:42 AM CDT reply actions

I weighted several variables

and then ran the schedule through a set of formulas.

Essentially looking at win probability on past performance of home/Away, strength of our starters, strength of opponent lineup, etc. It's all a crap shoot, but I use a variant of this system with a few different sports - generally coming out close to actual with football.

Baseball is a whack sport though and you could have a Kendall have an OPS of .980 for the next three weeks... I run the numbers more for fun than anything and because I usually need to test out a scheme for something for work.

What makes this one more difficult to pin down is that the club we've fielded the last couple series is a different one than we fielded most of July.

I'd like to proven wrong in a good way and have the Brewers win 12 more, the Cards sweep the Brewers but falter to everyone else, and the Cubbies go on a tear in September and finish the season with 90 wins...

'07 Postseason: Bears, Bulls... Cubs?

by stelmodad on Aug 13, 2007 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Wanted 90 now 85 be satisfactory

..prob. not a chance with wild-card though a hotter team likely to emerge from east or west divisions...we only play 3 more seriesg against +.500 teams I think , Ariz., Milw. and LAD...but even a Pitt or Cincy have one strong pitcher that can shut you down any time maybe we'll get lucky and miss them.

by writerinwrigley on Aug 13, 2007 12:00 PM CDT reply actions

Remaining opponents

I think it is much more significant at this time of year to look at what an opponent has been doing recently, rather than whether they have an overall winning record.

August and September historically is a time of hot and cold streaks.

For instance, right now there are some team playing pretty well despite their losing records: Astros, Nationals, Cardinals.

The Dodgers have a winning record, but they have been terrible of late, losing 10 games in the standings in 2 weeks.

The Cub and Brewers, despite their above .500 records have been really treading water.

Also important is the "spoiler" factor for teams like the Pirates, Reds, Nationals, Giants. Teams that are going nowhere and therefore have no pressure on them. Spoiling other teams post season aspirations is the biggest motivator they have going.

by jazzman56 on Aug 13, 2007 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

What's interesting, of course...

... is that there are nine teams within five games of the NL lead, almost unprecedented for this late in the year. Thus, on EVERY game day one playoff contender is going to be knocking another playoff contender off.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 13, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

True enough

but I still think that right now you have teams that are in a sprint, teams that are treading water, and teams that are sinking like a rock.

The Dodgers are an example of a team that on the surface would appears to be a contender, but they are really struggling and if they don't right the ship soon, they will play themselves out of contention.

OTOH, 3 weeks ago the D'Backs looked like they were on the verge of playing themselves out of it (after the 1st game in Chicago) and then they caught on fire, and as of yesterday, had the best record in the NL.

I do think trends at this time of year are very important...moreso than May or June.

by jazzman56 on Aug 13, 2007 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Those trends can turn around quickly, as you have noted above. Two weeks from now the D'backs could be cold and the Dodgers hot, or the Cubs hot, or some other team who seems on the fringes now.

By September 1 this should all become clearer.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 13, 2007 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions

25 more wins??

how many games are left?!

by nickler on Aug 13, 2007 4:00 PM CDT reply actions

45.

That would require going 25-20, something I think this team is capable of without too much trouble.

I'd like to see something more like 28-17, which would get them to 88 wins.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Aug 13, 2007 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions

this is all

great and everything but it's all speculation. Anyone can look at a schedule and say "oh they should win about 25 more games." I don't think it's the right way to look at this.

"You can fail twice in three tries and still lead the league."

by DanP on Aug 13, 2007 5:05 PM CDT reply actions

What's a right way to look at it?

Of course it's speculation; all we do around here is speculate. Plus, it's an off day :)

I think it's still valid to look at what left of the season and see what probable outcomes might be. We could go 25-20, 20-25, 30-15, whatever... but saying that we shouldn't even make an educated guess seems a bit borring.

'07 Postseason: Bears, Bulls... Cubs?

by stelmodad on Aug 13, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions