A Lesson in Splits

by steinmer on Aug 2, 2007 10:18 AM CDT Comment 5 comments

This is my first BCB post, so please bear with me. I've been trying to keep up with all of the posts, but if someone has already mentioned this, please let me know. I thought it would be interesting to look at a few cubs/brewers splits to help explain why the cubs seem to be winning close games, where the brewers can't seem to win to save their lives. Actually, I encountered these stats purely as a way to make fun of my brewers fan friend. So here we go...

We'll look at 3 stats. Batting Average with men on base, BA with runners in scoring position, and BA with runners in scoring position and 2 outs.

BA with runners on:
Cubs - .283 (8th in MLB)
The Crew - .265 (21st in MLB)

BA with RISP:
Cubs - .283 (6th in MLB)
Brewers - .258 (24th in MLB)

BA with RISP and 2 outs:
Cubs - .258 (12th in MLB)
Our soon to be 2nd place friends - .225 (24th in MLB)

Though the cubs stats don't make them out to be the best team in baseball or anything (btw, the Tigers completely kill everyone else in the situational splits), it does say something about the Brewers ability to hit the ball under pressure. Something to be said about a young team, probably.

Just for fun, here are some key contributors on the cubs for these splits:

BA Runners On - Min 100 PA's:
Lee - .355 (11th)
DeRosa - .342 (24th)
Floyd - .336 (26th)
Aramis - .326 (40th)

BA with RISP:
DLee - .380 (6th)
DeRosa - .344 (17th)
Aramis - .340 (21st)

BA with RISP and 2 outs:
DeRosa - .424 (4th)
Floyd - .400 (9th)
Jones - .367 (21st) - WOAH!

There you have it. Have fun, and let me know if I messed up!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

I'd look at OPS in those situations...

and not just AVG. OPS gives you a better idea of avoiding outs and hitting for power.

Also, I think it has a lot to do with the bullpens. Ours has been pretty effective the last few months, while I believe (haven't checked the stats) the Brewers pen has been much more shaky after being fantastic early.

by SouthernCub on Aug 2, 2007 10:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very true

My brewers fan friend will be the first to tell you that their bullpen is junk right now. Why do you think they sold the farm for a middle of the road reliever in Scott Linebrink? They're desperate.

by steinmer on Aug 2, 2007 10:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

OPS splits

Looking at OPS in those situations...

runners on:
Cubs - .771 (15th in MLB)
The Crew - .780 (11th in MLB)

RISP:
Cubs - .785 (8th in MLB)
Brewers - .781 (12th in MLB)

RISP and 2 outs:
Cubs - .772 (10th in MLB)
Brewers - .705 (22nd in MLB)

Not all that telling until you get to RISP with 2 outs.

by steinmer on Aug 2, 2007 10:29 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Runs scored

Milwaukee 520 (10th), Chicago 495 (17th).

I think that is ultimately the most important stat. Though I bet if you broke it down by month, Chicago would be outscoring them the past 2 months. The Cubs also have a more balanced team, with better pitching and defense than the Brewers.

by jazzypete on Aug 2, 2007 1:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Run differential is the most important stat...

not runs scored. But if you're talking only offense, then yes, runs scored is the most important stat. But you can get pretty good predictors of runs scored using other measures. That was, I think, the point.

by SouthernCub on Aug 2, 2007 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs