Bat the pitcher 8th..brilliant!
Sorry if this horse has been beaten to death, but I've been away for awhile. I noticed the genius (a.k.a. Tony LaRussa) has taken to batting the pitcher 8th again. I'm just a dumb hayseed and was hoping you all could help me with this one. What exactly is the benefit of batting the pitcher 8th if he is clearly not a better hitter than the guy batting 9th? Also, if this is such great strategy, why is that managers have been batting the pitcher 9th for as long as anyone can remember? My opinion is that LaRussa is just doing this to show he is such a great genius and hayseeds like me will never understand this childs game. Opinions?
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The claim
I guess..
Is he the best hitter though?
by Kinky Reggae on Aug 21, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Except, of course...
It's really because
HA!
by montanacubby on Aug 21, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
The same reason
I figure since Soriano wants to leadoff so damn bad. Let him lead off...
LF Soriano
RF Floyd
CF Jones
C Kendall
PITCHER
SS Theriot
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
So, he's technically "leading off" but in reality, he's batting fifth where he belongs.
by eamuscatuli1881 on Aug 21, 2007 1:33 PM CDT reply actions
re: The same reason
Seriously?
by big_lowitzki on Aug 21, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't agree with the theory
If he hit fifth, he would be batting with guys on base more often, and those breaking balls in the dirt could allow runners to advance more easily. When no one is on base, the pitcher is more likely to toss up the 55 foot curve balls, but not as much when runners are on.
Statistics
The only reason not to do this is because batting the pitcher 9th is the way it's always been done. That way you deflect media criticism and don't upset your players, etc. It should be clear to anyone who's paid any attention to the sabermetric movement of the last twenty years or so that the way things have always been done aren't always the best.
Wow
by eamuscatuli1881 on Aug 21, 2007 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm trying to cure cancer
by false cognate on Aug 21, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
This is exactly what I was looking for..
Do things change?
So the lineup that normally is:
1 Soriano
2 Theriot
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Floyd
6 DeRosa
7 Jones
8 Kendall
9 Pitcher
becomes:
1 Soriano
2 Theriot
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Floyd
6 DeRosa
7 Kendall
8 Pitcher
9 Jones
I guess my question is: if you are definitely going to bat the pitcher 8th, then is sliding the regular 8th hitter into the 9th spot to most productive? Or would you generate more runs with an even better hitter hitting 9th than the would-be 8th hitter?
I apologize if this post was too awkwardly worded to comprehend.
by WittyUserName on Aug 21, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I think I understand
The short answer is, "I don't know."
The long answer is, "It probably depends on the specifics."
I wrote a Monte Carlo simulator to try to run through all 362,880 lineup possibilities (that's where I got my 10 - 15 run estimate, backed up by work by other, more respected people in the sabermetric community). I haven't worked on it in a while, but the preliminary results using the 2005 Cubs and the 2005 Astros lineups suggested that you might be able to eke out a few extra runs by tweaking the lineup in a manner that you suggest (for example, instead of putting 2005 Adam Everett in the 9 hole, you put 2005 Biggio there) you could improve the numbers a little bit more, but you don't see the gains that you do just by switching the 8-hitter and the pitcher.
Looking at the aggregated stats on retrosheet.org, it's pretty reasonable as to why that's the case. The average NL pitcher last year batted 132/167/175, the average 8-hitter batted 254/321/376, and the average 7-hitter batted 266/323/424. The difference between the average pitcher and the average 8-hitter is pretty significant, but the difference between the average 8-hitter and the average 6 or 7-hitter isn't nearly that big.
by false cognate on Aug 21, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Lineup Analysis
by big_lowitzki on Aug 22, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
by false cognate on Aug 22, 2007 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Eamus,
in the cards lineup...
in a more balanced lineup, i don't think this would be a good idea, as rbi chances for the 8 hitter would more likely go to waste.
I see the point.
Not quite...
It has little to do with the production before the top of the lineup.
by big_lowitzki on Aug 22, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions



















