Bat the pitcher 8th..brilliant!

by wicubfan on Aug 21, 2007 12:58 PM CDT Comment 23 comments

Sorry if this horse has been beaten to death, but I've been away for awhile. I noticed the genius (a.k.a. Tony LaRussa) has taken to batting the pitcher 8th again. I'm just a dumb hayseed and was hoping you all could help me with this one. What exactly is the benefit of batting the pitcher 8th if he is clearly not a better hitter than the guy batting 9th? Also, if this is such great strategy, why is that managers have been batting the pitcher 9th for as long as anyone can remember? My opinion is that LaRussa is just doing this to show he is such a great genius and hayseeds like me will never understand this childs game. Opinions?

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The claim

Is that because Pujols, their best hitter, is batting 3rd, it gives the Cardinals another man on base when he bats.

There is no place like Nebraska - Go Huskers!

by sanantonecub on Aug 21, 2007 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess..

Sweet Lou should be following the example then since DLee is the Cubs best hitter..

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Aug 21, 2007 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is he the best hitter though?

MMMMM...Mannys corned beef and a latke

by Kinky Reggae on Aug 21, 2007 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except, of course...

... in the first inning. Didn't really help them in the Cub series.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Aug 21, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's really because

Aaron Miles is so good, Tony bats him 9th to give the other teams a fair chance, because the combination of Tony's genius and Miles hitting eighth would be more than the league could bear.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Aug 21, 2007 12:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

HA!

Tony Larussa...he's always just so darn fair! What sportsmanship!

by montanacubby on Aug 21, 2007 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The same reason

why I think the Cubs should bat the pitcher 5th...

I figure since Soriano wants to leadoff so damn bad. Let him lead off...

LF Soriano
RF Floyd
CF Jones
C Kendall
PITCHER
SS Theriot
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
3B Ramirez

So, he's technically "leading off" but in reality, he's batting fifth where he belongs.

by eamuscatuli1881 on Aug 21, 2007 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

re: The same reason

Wow, this is a really cool idea. Seriously. I guess my only question is: Would opposing pitchers be able to adjust to this kind of unconventional lineup somehow? I know the main reason the typical five-hole doesn't suit Soriano is pitchers won't throw him enough fast balls.

You know you're not in high finance/Considering getting secondhand underpants

by dat cubfan daver on Aug 21, 2007 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seriously?

Yea... it would be great to have your two best hitters get the fewest at-bats on the team...

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Aug 21, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree with the theory

that Soriano would only see breaking balls in the 5 hole. If you have watched his AB's so far, he has always gotten a steady diet of breaking balls at leadoff, because he tends to chase them.

If he hit fifth, he would be batting with guys on base more often, and those breaking balls in the dirt could allow runners to advance more easily. When no one is on base, the pitcher is more likely to toss up the 55 foot curve balls, but not as much when runners are on.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Aug 22, 2007 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I had fun with this one, thanks for posting it.

by helen on Aug 21, 2007 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Statistics

Given league-average batting from the pitcher, and a league-average "8th" batter, if you switch them you should score about 10 - 15 extra runs in a 162 game season as a result of having a higher OBP player batting immediately in front of the best hitters (1 through 4). 10 - 15 extra runs per season generally equals an extra win. Given the vagaries of baseball, you might not score 10 extra runs each year, but it should average out to that.

The only reason not to do this is because batting the pitcher 9th is the way it's always been done. That way you deflect media criticism and don't upset your players, etc. It should be clear to anyone who's paid any attention to the sabermetric movement of the last twenty years or so that the way things have always been done aren't always the best.

by false cognate on Aug 21, 2007 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Shouldn't you be off working on more important things... like developing cold fusion?

by eamuscatuli1881 on Aug 21, 2007 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm trying to cure cancer

Does that count?

by false cognate on Aug 21, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is exactly what I was looking for..

I knew someone smarter than me could give a good reason for this. I just didn't want to accept it from LaRussa.

Well, sometimes nothin is a real cool hand.

by wicubfan on Aug 21, 2007 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do things change?

Say you bat the 'normal' 7th hitter 9th, the Pitcher 8th, and the 'normal' 8th hitter 7th?

So the lineup that normally is:

1 Soriano
2 Theriot
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Floyd
6 DeRosa
7 Jones
8 Kendall
9 Pitcher

becomes:

1 Soriano
2 Theriot
3 Lee
4 Ramirez
5 Floyd
6 DeRosa
7 Kendall
8 Pitcher
9 Jones

I guess my question is: if you are definitely going to bat the pitcher 8th, then is sliding the regular 8th hitter into the 9th spot to most productive? Or would you generate more runs with an even better hitter hitting 9th than the would-be 8th hitter?

I apologize if this post was too awkwardly worded to comprehend.

by WittyUserName on Aug 21, 2007 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I understand

what you're saying.

The short answer is, "I don't know."

The long answer is, "It probably depends on the specifics."

I wrote a Monte Carlo simulator to try to run through all 362,880 lineup possibilities (that's where I got my 10 - 15 run estimate, backed up by work by other, more respected people in the sabermetric community). I haven't worked on it in a while, but the preliminary results using the 2005 Cubs and the 2005 Astros lineups suggested that you might be able to eke out a few extra runs by tweaking the lineup in a manner that you suggest (for example, instead of putting 2005 Adam Everett in the 9 hole, you put 2005 Biggio there) you could improve the numbers a little bit more, but you don't see the gains that you do just by switching the 8-hitter and the pitcher.

Looking at the aggregated stats on retrosheet.org, it's pretty reasonable as to why that's the case. The average NL pitcher last year batted 132/167/175, the average 8-hitter batted 254/321/376, and the average 7-hitter batted 266/323/424. The difference between the average pitcher and the average 8-hitter is pretty significant, but the difference between the average 8-hitter and the average 6 or 7-hitter isn't nearly that big.

by false cognate on Aug 21, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lineup Analysis

Baseball Musings has a lineup analysis tool that will help you determine this.

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Aug 22, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It's a pretty good first order approximation. It can produce some wonky results, though; it's based on a regression model that Cyril came up with analyzing production out of particular batting slots. The problem with that is that by moving players around, you're inherently changing the model. My work was done by building a simulator that actually took the lineup, and tried to run a large number of simulated games, computing the average # of runs all the while, until the deviation fell below a certain threshold of variance. It takes forever to run, though, so I haven't worked on it in a while. When I get a newer, faster, computer I'm hoping to rewrite it to take advantage of multiple processors and see what happens.

by false cognate on Aug 22, 2007 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eamus,

I would love to see your lineup on the field in September. That'd be splendid. Eat your heart out, LaRussa!

"Mine, mine, says the squirrel to the transformer, unclear on the capacities of electricity." -Dean Young

by Kegler on Aug 21, 2007 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

in the cards lineup...

...pujols is the clear centerpiece, and far and away the most productive hitter. in addition to being one of the best hitters in baseball, there is not much surrounding him this year in the lineup. by batting the pitcher 8th, la russa tries to make pujols' at-bats as productive as possible.

in a more balanced lineup, i don't think this would be a good idea, as rbi chances for the 8 hitter would more likely go to waste.

by numike on Aug 21, 2007 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I see the point.

In a way, every time a manager double switches he's acnowledging that the 9th spot should be more productive in the upcoming inning than what the average pitcher can give him. I guess the only reason to have the pitcher bat ninth is that you want your best batters get more at-bats than the pitcher until it's time to go to the bullpen. Then you double switch and, in effect, put a more potent hitter in the 9th spot.

by Fraggin Judge on Aug 21, 2007 7:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs