Sun Times article spot on......
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/552786,CST-SPT-cub12.article
"In fact, for the same reasons, this Cubs season should never have gotten to this point -- trailing Milwaukee by a game in the National League Central with 18 to play and defying logic with a once-heralded, veteran lineup that falls so short so often it's doubtful it can rise in time to be a force in this division race."
Pretty good summary. This team is not going to hit some magic switch and start dominating good teams.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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61 comments
Comments
True
Soriano doesn't take pitches, Theriot is in a rut, Floyd hasn't produced, and Jones (who has hit for average the second half,) just had a horrible AB last night in the 11th, 2-0 count, Lidge on fumes and trys to rip the ball on I thought was a ball up in the strike zone.
Can not get a read on this team, and with 18 games to go, you can see this team go 9-9.
by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Sep 12, 2007 7:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Way off
by krummy12 on Sep 12, 2007 7:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another "hacker".
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 8:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"baseball sense"
And that is what Jock got.
And Jock swung, hit the ball pretty well, but essentially right at a guy who caught it.
That is baseball. You cannot fault Jock for swinging at that pitch. It was a great pitch to swing at, and he got unlucky by hitting it right at someone.
by big_lowitzki on Sep 12, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree.
Anyway, that is not the play that beat us, and I've discussed it enough already. Al mentioned several crucial mistakes during the game that contributed more to the loss.
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Same here
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was amazed
Yet, as I was watching the game, I knew Jones would be swinging. It's what the Cubs do. We just aren't very prudent.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do think
We are watching little league people...plain and simple.
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 8:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's worse.
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 8:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
by krummy12 on Sep 12, 2007 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one is bashing the guy
Yes hindsight is 20-20 but I for one, said to myself out loud, please take whatever comes your way now. He hit it well and normally there is nothing wrong with swinging away but I would have preferred him run it to even 3-2 and then all that pressure on Lidge, combined with a tired arm/psyche may do us a big favor.
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong approach
This is the major leagues. Waiting for a pitcher to make a mistake is not just waiting for 4 balls. It is also creaming the mistake pitch that catches too much of the plate. That is what Jones did, and it just didn't fall in for a hit.
We took an amazing 250 pitches last night, and had a ridiculous 10 walks, and only scored 4 runs in extras. The problem with the O last night was not a lack of taking pitches.
Meanwhile, you do not tire out a relief pitcher in one inning no matter how many pitches you let him throw. Its one inning. He can throw 30 pitches, and be fine.
There are certainly times to take borderline pitches, but there is very few times to be taking meaty ones.
by californiachicagoan on Sep 12, 2007 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
First, normally you may be correct on taking pitches however, on a night when the O wasn't able to knock in anything, changing the pace of things could help. The same way that Len and Bob were talking about rather than bunting with Lee at bat in the 9th or 10th to hit and run in order to change things up, I would advocate that taking a pitch may have been a good idea.
Secondly, you very much CAN tire out a relief pitcher with a combination of pitches thrown, and psycholgical pressure. Lidge was on the ledge so to speak, and we pulled him back in. He had SO much pressure on him and to make him work a couple more pitches (and still possibly get the same result) would not have been the worst thing.
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's called situational hitting
Even taking a strike puts the count at 2-1 which is still big advantage hitter. And finally, even hitting the ball hard doesn't guarantee success. The hitter is still going to make an out 70% of the time.
If there was ever a time for patience, that was the time.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually 62%
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My guess
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Overthinking
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thing
Just because someone's aware of the situation doesn't mean they're overthinking.
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right.
As you say it was a situation where good hitting tells you to hold until you get a strike. Statistics about past performances in that count are irrelevant. After all, a tired Lidge wasn't pitiching to Jones in all of those prior at bats.
But again, statistics are like lamp posts. Most people use them to enlighten their lives; others just use the lamp post to hold on to it in order to break a fall.
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right for once
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clever
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Set the record straight
Since then you've called me a number of names. I haven't lowered myself to your level. I've stated facts and you're calling me a jackass? Grow up. I didn't seek you out. Man up and move on. Personally, I could care less what you believe Jones should have done.
I believe it was a mistake and presented facts to document my belief. I was at the game and Lidge was toast. We let him off the hook. Personal observation and statistical data and the situation lead me to believe it was a terrible decision. That's all I have to say about it.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you for real?
Look at the tone, attitude, and the many not-so-subtle insults laced throughout your posts in response to mine and it's not hard to understand why I resorted to namecalling. My original post in response to yours wasn't insulting at all. I simply raised objections to your viewpoint. You obviously can't handle that without resorting to saying things like: "It doesn't take a genius..." or "Of course, since you want to believe what you think, the facts don't interfere with your ideas."
What a bunch of bullshit.
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, that was a strike
by californiachicagoan on Sep 12, 2007 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again
You want to look at career numbers even though I think the 2007 stats are more indicative of what to expect. After the 2-0 count he's had a .340 BA and a .497 OBP.
It doesn't take a genius to see that swinging at that pitch was almost criminal. Of course, since you want to believe what you think, the facts don't interfere with your ideas.
Finally, I never said that taking the pitch guarantees success. I said it was a bad idea and lowered the probability of success for Jones to swing at the 2-0 in the situation that existed last night.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong again?
I look at career numbers because in 2007 he's only had 21 plate appearances in which he's had a 2-0 count. That's too small of a sample size to be very useful.
Also, it's not fair to look at his OBP after the 2-0 count since that pitch was most definitely a strike if he took it. So you need to look at it after a 2-1 count. His career number after a 2-1 count is .352, which is LOWER than his career number hitting on a 2-0 count (.280). Thus, his probability of success was HIGHER by swinging at that 2-0 pitch, rather than taking it and letting the count go to 2-1.
So it doesn't take a genius to figure out that it's far from clear that "swinging at that pitch was almost criminal." And here, let me throw your bravado back at ya: "Of course, since you want to believe what you think, the facts don't interfere with your ideas."
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see
Count 2-0. If a ball is put in play, it's an out 62%.
Count 2-1. If a ball is put in play, it's an out 65%.
So by taking the pitch no matter what, he has effectively lowered his chance of success by a whopping 3%
In the meantime you have eliminated any possibility of taking a base on ball which will drive in a run in extra innings. After a 2-0 count JJ OBP is .497 which means he has walked many times when being patient. And that doesn't even factor in a tiring pitcher who has already thrown more pitches than he has all season and walked 3 other hitters.
Do the math. Take a pitch and lower your success rate by 3% if it's a strike. However adding in the walks improves the success rate to 50% if he takes the pitch. That's an 12% improvement over going after the pitch.
It's that simple.
And you might try dropping the name calling.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2-1
But the pitch was a strike, which is why he swang at it. The useful number is his OBP after a 2-1 count. "After a 2-0 count" includes all the hits he got swinging at 2-0 strikes like he tried last night.
by californiachicagoan on Sep 12, 2007 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, ha, ha...
Here are the facts so let's see if YOU can follow: Based on his career numbers by putting the ball in play on the 2-0 count he had a 38% chance of success. By taking the strike (and there's no doubt that pitch was a strike) and letting the count go to 2-1 he had a 37.5% chance of success. Also, a tiring pitcher is probably a non-issue since it probably increases both the probability that he's gonna get a hit on the 2-0 count and the probability that he's gonna get on base after 2-1. Maybe it increases the latter more than the former, but probably not by much. And certainly not by enough for someone to say swinging at the 2-0 pitch was "almost criminal."
Have a pleasant evening.
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because it doesn't make sense to you
Now you're supplanting you "logic" with such wonderful and factual data such as "a tiring pitcher is probably a non-issue" since it "probably increases the probability etc".
Still more "maybe it increases etc". Hell, who can argue with those irrefutable facts.
You might also note that JJ has been to bat 114 times with the bases loaded. One lousy walk. How Dustyesque.
by tharr on Sep 12, 2007 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody's claiming
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh and
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sorry man
Seriously.
There has to be something about you and your ways that antagonize people don't you think?
I try hard to stay out of this and you and I had a relatively decent discussion about JJ swinging away last night. I still believe you take that pitch regardless of whatever stats you present. I have to say, the only blatent name calling has come from you with such comments as "moron", "jackass", "ass", etc.
If you want people to understand your plights, don't be such a hypocite. I know this will make you mad but I truly appreciated the conversation we had earlier, then I read your comments above and I felt annoyed again. I know you don;t care and that is fine but I seriously urge you to think about how you engage people here. I have done so myself (with the urging of Al at times) when I found that I argued with a lot of people. Of course I still do but I understand my role a little better...you may want to as well.
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hypocite=hypocrite
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
As for me, you just stick to worrying about yourself and your behavior.
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well thanks for the props
Still think you are wrong about JJ man...you just gotta make the pitcher work harder under those circumstances...you just gotta. I don't disagree that it was a fat pitch but JJ actually hit some pretty tough ones all night (like the one he absolutely golfed into RF off the ground practically!)
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I take your point
And I still disagree about JJ. Keep in mind that he was something like 6 for his previous 9 going into that AB. And I think he got a hit in his first AB tonight. He's seeing the ball pretty well right now. DLee's AB earlier in that game was much worse because he swung at a bad pitch on 2-0 with the bases loaded and Backe struggling with his command. He popped out weakly to right. At least JJ picked out a good pitch and hit the ball hard. Can't ask for much more than that out of an AB.
by cubsbak on Sep 12, 2007 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well I was sking for more...
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know...
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree and this is why
If there was a different type of hitter up (DeRosa, Kendall, type hitter) I would have given them the take sign, because they usually don't get over anxious deeper in the count (like Jones).
Piniella said the other day the Cubs have aggressive hitters and you can't change how they approach AB's (much). He is correct. Hitting has to be instinct, because you have very little time to think about what you are going to do. If you are aggressive you go with it, if you have the ability to be patient, you use that to the best of your ability. When you try to change a guys approach (that comes natural for them) you really mess with their head and productivity falls of the ledge.
As Piniella also stated; if you want patient hitters, you sign patient hitters in the offseason. Hendry has always leaned towards the "grip it and rip it" approach and the bulk of the lineup is that way. This is another reason I don't care for Soriano in the leadoff spot. Besides wasting 30+ homer power, you have a guy hacking away and not making the pitcher work, which I think is helpful in that role.
Anyway, Jones did what he does when he is successful, he saw a good pitch and he hacked at it.
by MPH73 on Sep 13, 2007 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 12, 2007 8:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Did you just start following the Cubs?
Yeah, not like they could be the best team in baseball for weeks at a time. How likely is that? ...
... Oh wait.
by californiachicagoan on Sep 12, 2007 12:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No I've been watching them for about 30 years....
And while you're learning something there, check the last time they won a series from a team with a winning record.
Because the sign of a truly great team is the ability to dominate weaker opponents and play badly against good ones.
Oh wait.....
by Peoria Matt on Sep 12, 2007 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Style points don't count
How can that be?
by Not Bruce Froemming on Sep 12, 2007 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Check the record yourself
We are talking 81 games, or half a season. They only played bad teams for half a season? No wonder they had such a tough time in the first half then!
But you are right, how can they possibly get that hot again? All is lost.
by californiachicagoan on Sep 12, 2007 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't confuse people
by Not Bruce Froemming on Sep 12, 2007 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, what a great record that is.....
After that World Series trophy is paraded through the streets is when I guess I'll realize how stupid it was to think this team wasn't going to win it all.
by Peoria Matt on Sep 12, 2007 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last time...
by Al on Sep 12, 2007 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The fact is that the Cubs have been the...
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 10:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe this will help my original post......
Brewers 9-6
Braves 4-5
DBacks 2-4
Dodgers 2-5
Mets 2-5
Padres 3-5
Phils 3-4
Seattle 2-1
-----
27-35
But as we know, this is meaningless because the Cubs have the best record in baseball since June 2nd. Too bad those pesky good teams have to be on the schedule.
I don't want "to confuse people with facts" though.
I will edit my original posting to what I should have typed.
by Peoria Matt on Sep 12, 2007 11:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
by Fraggin Judge on Sep 12, 2007 11:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As I have pointed out...
Both the 2006 Cardinals and 2005 White Sox had LOSING records in the regular season against the teams they faced in the postseason.
Didn't matter. They both got hot for three weeks. GET IN, then the records revert to 0-0 and what happened from April to September doesn't matter.
by Al on Sep 13, 2007 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets compare the 06 Cards, 05 White Sox and
05 White Sox
Konerko 40 HR
Dye 31
Everett 23
Crede 22
A.J. 18
Uribe 16
Iguchi 15
06 Cards
Pujols 49
Duncan 22
Rolen 22
Encar. 19
Edmunds 19
Spezio 13
07 Cubs
Soriano 25
Ramirez 23
Lee 18
And if I'm not mistaken, the White Sox had 4 complete game victories in the World Series.
When the Cubs pull that off, I'll eat my shoe.
by Peoria Matt on Sep 13, 2007 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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