Strategy Threads

by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 1:58 PM CDT Comment 14 comments

What would you do?

I occasionally look around the message board at cubs.com, mostly for rumors or what not. But I stumbled across a thread where fans were criticizing the Reds for walking Ward to get to DeRosa in the 9th.

Most people argued that they were probably going for matchups (Lefty / Righty), and many felt that the Reds should've walked the bases loaded to setup the force at home.

My thoughts were:

"I'm sure that this is something along the lines of the what the Reds were thinking:

"We need a double play to get out of this thing. Of the next 3 batters, who is most likely to hit into a DP? Probably Jacque Jones. So we need to walk either Ward or DeRosa for the double play to be set-up for Jones. Between Ward and DeRosa, Ward strikes out less and is more likely to lift one deep enough for a sac fly. Therefore, we have to try to get a weak grounder, pop-up, or strikeout from DeRosa to have any chance."

I don't agree with walking both Ward and DeRosa at all. Then it's bases loaded with 0 outs, and your no longer looking for a double play, but a force out at home. So Say Jones nubs one to 2nd, the throw goes home and nails Fuld, bases are juiced with 1 out. Then you just gave the Cubs an extra batter, if not two extra batters (one to try to get a sac fly, and a second to try for a hit in case of a non DP out). Giving the opponent extra outs to work with is never good (as everyone would agree), but it doesn't just pertain to defensive gaffes, it also has to do with strategy laden situations such as this one.

On the surface, of course you don't walk to get to a guy who is 9 for his last 9 against you. But using the larger sample sizes of both season and career numbers, Ward was much more likely to drive in Fuld than DeRosa was, at least in terms of a sac-fly. It was a 'pick your poison' scenario, it was bad for the Reds either way."

Thoughts on that scenario?

But more than just this particular scenario, I haven't really noticed many strategy heavy discussions about 'what would you do' relating to a recent baseball scenario.

Would others be interested in such discussions / threads?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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INfield was in.

There were zero outs and therefore a DP with Ward on first would be meaningless as Fuld would've scored. Ward was walked because he was a lefty and more likely to hit a sac fly and because if Derosa was unable to bring in Fuld, it would then set up the DP and bring the infield back and Hopper to CF.

I'm assuming Hopper's arm isn't the greatest fromthis decision.

by lemon20pie on Sep 18, 2007 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

should have walked both

any ground ball would of had to be taken home and a Force out is easier than a tag out. Plus a line drive with the bases loaded would could be three outs since all runners would have going on contact...not true with 1st/3rd.
furthermore if the pitcher spot came up and a pinch hitter beat us that could be argument in their protest that the double switched helped the cubs. Overall though with no outs and a runner on third it's tough to not give up a run.

Pete Mackanin has protested my comment

by jds2 on Sep 18, 2007 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In a situation like last night

I think the match ups become less important and you have to give yourself the best chance to cut off the winning run at home. The best way to do that is to create a force at home.

IMO, it was a bad decision by the Reds, plain and simple.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 2:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't quite undertsand

Why is more important to setup the force at home than it is to setup the inning ending double play?

In my opinion, their best chance was to put either Ward or DeRosa on, get the other one out, and then try to get a DP from Jones.

If you put both Ward and DeRosa on, then you make a DP from Jones a non issue because you would then need a K or an out at home.

How is it more important to setup the force at the plate?

I think it needs to be analyzed thusly.

1. Do you want to pitch to Ward?
He has an AVG of .330, and an OBP of .442. He is not a strikeout candidate, and has a good chance to come up with a hit or sac fly.

Answer: Walk Ward

2. Do you want to pitch to DeRosa?
He has an AVG of .292, and an OBP of .370. He isn't much of a strikeout victim, and he has a good chance to get a hit or sac fly. However, he is more likely to make an out in the situation than Ward, and even less likely to put the ball in play.

Answer: Pitch to DeRosa and hope for a K or an easy out.

3. Do you want to pitch the Jones?
He has a Groundball to Flyball ratio of 2.02:1, He is the best candidate for hitting into a double play.

Answer: With 1 away, pull the infiled back. Pitch to Jones and hope for an inning ending double play.

In such a scenario, the other option opposed to pitching to DeRosa would be to walk DeRosa and go after a pinch hitter, who would most likely be Matt Murton. So then you change your scenario on Jones from hoping for a DP to hoping for a K. And then looking for Murton to hit into a DP.

But Murton's GB to FP is 1.14:1 (the same as DeRosa), with a .364 OBP. So it seems that both Murton and DeRosa have almost an equal chance to drive in the runner from third. Either with a hit, a walk (in Murton's case it would be an RBI walk) or a sac fly.

Of the potential 4 upcoming batters, Jones is the least likely to drive in the runner. He strikes out more, and he hits the most grounders, I think you need to go after him and try to get 2 from him.

I DO see an agrument for walking Ward and DeRosa, and trying for a K from Jones and a DP from Murton. But only in that it would force the Cubs to use their last good pinch hitter (only Cedeño really left) so that the Reds would most likely win in extras with a better lineup. But then it's a matter of whether or not that advantage outweighs the fact that the Cubs lineup would turnover quicker.

But I don't quite understand how walking 2 to setup the force at home is statistically more sound than trying to get Jones to end the inning with a DP.

by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO

there are more ways to score the winning run with 1st and 3rd vs the bases being juiced, and makes that situation harder to defend. With 1st and 3rd, the infielder would need to make a better throw and the catcher have enough time to apply the tag if the runner goes on a ground ball. Also, with DeRosa having 4 hits in the game, I would be even more inclined to load the bases because he was in a mode to make solid contact. I know a walk can win the game as well, but that is the least of my worries in that circumstance.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because...

In my opinion, their best chance was to put either Ward or DeRosa on, get the other one out, and then try to get a DP from Jones.

The problem with this is that most "outs" would have, or at least very likely could have, scored the run from third.

visit the mindful mission.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 18, 2007 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

This seems to be very much a 'pick your poison' scenario. To me, it seems that the lesser of two evils is to force DeRosa to be the hero, and if he can't, try to get JJ to double himself up.

An out will likely score a run, but with 5 infielders and all of them drawn in, it somewhat negates the grounball basehit from the equation, and a groundball out certainly won't score a run, so it significantly lowers the odds of the batter driving in the runner, As he then has to it a ball in the air to score him at all.

Maybe the odds are better of JJ striking out, and then Murton hits intoa DP as opposed to going after DeRosa. The Reds were most likely going to lose no matter what they tried, I just think that they did the best thing possible. It never seems good to load the bases, and it's not as though Murton is all that less likely to drive in Fuld than DeRosa is.

by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton would have been

the perfect guy for the Reds to have up in that situation. Sure, he may have driven in the run, but he is also an EXCELLENT DP candidate, because he is a two hop ground ball machine.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh...

Last year he was. This year Murton has 4 DPs. And his Groundball Out to Flyout ratio is 1.14:1

That is an identical ratio to DeRosa. Now, Murton's AVG is .020 points lower than DeRosa, so he would be less likely to get a hit. But his OBP is only .006 points lower, so he is just as unlikely to avoid the strikeout and draw the walk.

Jones is THE groundball machine with a 2.02:1 ratio. He is easily the best DP candidate amongst Cubs regulars.

by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jones is a good DP candidate

I agree, but he is fleeter a foot and does hit from the left side, which makes turning one a tad more difficult. Anyway, DeRosa hitting in that situation (IMO) was a huge mistake by the Reds, but I will take it.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs