Strategy Threads
What would you do?
I occasionally look around the message board at cubs.com, mostly for rumors or what not. But I stumbled across a thread where fans were criticizing the Reds for walking Ward to get to DeRosa in the 9th.
Most people argued that they were probably going for matchups (Lefty / Righty), and many felt that the Reds should've walked the bases loaded to setup the force at home.
My thoughts were:
"I'm sure that this is something along the lines of the what the Reds were thinking:
"We need a double play to get out of this thing. Of the next 3 batters, who is most likely to hit into a DP? Probably Jacque Jones. So we need to walk either Ward or DeRosa for the double play to be set-up for Jones. Between Ward and DeRosa, Ward strikes out less and is more likely to lift one deep enough for a sac fly. Therefore, we have to try to get a weak grounder, pop-up, or strikeout from DeRosa to have any chance."
I don't agree with walking both Ward and DeRosa at all. Then it's bases loaded with 0 outs, and your no longer looking for a double play, but a force out at home. So Say Jones nubs one to 2nd, the throw goes home and nails Fuld, bases are juiced with 1 out. Then you just gave the Cubs an extra batter, if not two extra batters (one to try to get a sac fly, and a second to try for a hit in case of a non DP out). Giving the opponent extra outs to work with is never good (as everyone would agree), but it doesn't just pertain to defensive gaffes, it also has to do with strategy laden situations such as this one.
On the surface, of course you don't walk to get to a guy who is 9 for his last 9 against you. But using the larger sample sizes of both season and career numbers, Ward was much more likely to drive in Fuld than DeRosa was, at least in terms of a sac-fly. It was a 'pick your poison' scenario, it was bad for the Reds either way."
Thoughts on that scenario?
But more than just this particular scenario, I haven't really noticed many strategy heavy discussions about 'what would you do' relating to a recent baseball scenario.
Would others be interested in such discussions / threads?
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14 comments
Comments
INfield was in.
I'm assuming Hopper's arm isn't the greatest fromthis decision.
by lemon20pie on Sep 18, 2007 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
should have walked both
furthermore if the pitcher spot came up and a pinch hitter beat us that could be argument in their protest that the double switched helped the cubs. Overall though with no outs and a runner on third it's tough to not give up a run.
by jds2 on Sep 18, 2007 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
In a situation like last night
IMO, it was a bad decision by the Reds, plain and simple.
by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 2:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't quite undertsand
In my opinion, their best chance was to put either Ward or DeRosa on, get the other one out, and then try to get a DP from Jones.
If you put both Ward and DeRosa on, then you make a DP from Jones a non issue because you would then need a K or an out at home.
How is it more important to setup the force at the plate?
I think it needs to be analyzed thusly.
1. Do you want to pitch to Ward?
He has an AVG of .330, and an OBP of .442. He is not a strikeout candidate, and has a good chance to come up with a hit or sac fly.
Answer: Walk Ward
2. Do you want to pitch to DeRosa?
He has an AVG of .292, and an OBP of .370. He isn't much of a strikeout victim, and he has a good chance to get a hit or sac fly. However, he is more likely to make an out in the situation than Ward, and even less likely to put the ball in play.
Answer: Pitch to DeRosa and hope for a K or an easy out.
3. Do you want to pitch the Jones?
He has a Groundball to Flyball ratio of 2.02:1, He is the best candidate for hitting into a double play.
Answer: With 1 away, pull the infiled back. Pitch to Jones and hope for an inning ending double play.
In such a scenario, the other option opposed to pitching to DeRosa would be to walk DeRosa and go after a pinch hitter, who would most likely be Matt Murton. So then you change your scenario on Jones from hoping for a DP to hoping for a K. And then looking for Murton to hit into a DP.
But Murton's GB to FP is 1.14:1 (the same as DeRosa), with a .364 OBP. So it seems that both Murton and DeRosa have almost an equal chance to drive in the runner from third. Either with a hit, a walk (in Murton's case it would be an RBI walk) or a sac fly.
Of the potential 4 upcoming batters, Jones is the least likely to drive in the runner. He strikes out more, and he hits the most grounders, I think you need to go after him and try to get 2 from him.
I DO see an agrument for walking Ward and DeRosa, and trying for a K from Jones and a DP from Murton. But only in that it would force the Cubs to use their last good pinch hitter (only CedeƱo really left) so that the Reds would most likely win in extras with a better lineup. But then it's a matter of whether or not that advantage outweighs the fact that the Cubs lineup would turnover quicker.
But I don't quite understand how walking 2 to setup the force at home is statistically more sound than trying to get Jones to end the inning with a DP.
by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
IMO
by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
because...
The problem with this is that most "outs" would have, or at least very likely could have, scored the run from third.
by big_lowitzki on Sep 18, 2007 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
An out will likely score a run, but with 5 infielders and all of them drawn in, it somewhat negates the grounball basehit from the equation, and a groundball out certainly won't score a run, so it significantly lowers the odds of the batter driving in the runner, As he then has to it a ball in the air to score him at all.
Maybe the odds are better of JJ striking out, and then Murton hits intoa DP as opposed to going after DeRosa. The Reds were most likely going to lose no matter what they tried, I just think that they did the best thing possible. It never seems good to load the bases, and it's not as though Murton is all that less likely to drive in Fuld than DeRosa is.
by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Murton would have been
by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meh...
That is an identical ratio to DeRosa. Now, Murton's AVG is .020 points lower than DeRosa, so he would be less likely to get a hit. But his OBP is only .006 points lower, so he is just as unlikely to avoid the strikeout and draw the walk.
Jones is THE groundball machine with a 2.02:1 ratio. He is easily the best DP candidate amongst Cubs regulars.
by WittyUserName on Sep 18, 2007 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jones is a good DP candidate
by MPH73 on Sep 18, 2007 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"perfect"
Murton only has 4 double plays ALL YEAR.
Keep making things up - you do it well.
by big_lowitzki on Sep 18, 2007 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Run still scores
by santo for prez on Sep 19, 2007 3:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because
Loading the bases makes it easier to cut off that run at the plate and then they could go after the DP.
I think they should have loaded them up too. Oh well, sucks for them...and sucks for us last night!
by Kinky Reggae on Sep 19, 2007 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are playing the players and the situation
I would have walked DeRosa....and looked to face Jones less a contact hitter. But Weathers would have had to throw strikes.....
either way it is a box unless you can strike out at least one out.
by Ivy Walls on Sep 18, 2007 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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