Why the Cubs really frustrate some of us BCB'ers...

by kcjones on Sep 18, 2007 11:47 PM CDT Comment 14 comments

I did a little rudimentary analysis on scoring efficiency. That is the percentage of baserunners that score.

My methodology was basic and made some assumptions. I didn't account for errors. I assumed that total baserunners were hits + base on balls. I then divided runs scored into that number to get a percentage. This should get us fairly close to a comparison statistic as runners on by error probably cancel out hitters trying to stretch out singels in to doubles, etc. For basic analysis, this should be good enough.

Comments

Here it is comma delimited if you want to dump

into database or Excel....

,TEAM,GP,AB,R,H,BB,%BRS
1,Milwaukee,150,5128,735,1358,450,0.406526549
2,Philadelphia,151,5285,834,1461,591,0.406432749
3,Cincinnati,151,5222,741,1402,501,0.389385181
4,Florida,151,5231,733,1397,486,0.389272438
5,Atlanta,151,5313,765,1468,498,0.389114954
6,Colorado,151,5219,777,1447,570,0.385225583
7,Arizona,152,5028,660,1242,489,0.381282496
8,Pittsburgh,151,5172,682,1361,434,0.37994429
9,NY,150,5155,728,1411,506,0.379760042
10,San D,150,5090,666,1267,511,0.374578178
11,Chicago Cubs,152,5278,695,1423,472,0.366754617
12,St. Louis,150,5073,672,1377,466,0.364622897
13,LA,151,5200,683,1423,482,0.358530184
14,Houston,151,5196,660,1340,511,0.356564019
15,San Fran,151,5120,627,1284,495,0.352445194
16,Washington,151,5128,617,1310,479,0.344885411
LEAGUE,AVERAGES,GP,AB,R,H,,
American,League,151,5207,741,1410,499,0.388161341
National,League,151,5177,705,1373,496,0.377207063
Major,League,151,5191,722,1390,498,0.382415254

The best defense is a good offense

by kcjones on Sep 18, 2007 11:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

One thing to point out

Teams that hit a lot of home runs, like the Brewers (as recently as mid-August, some obscene number like 45% of their runs came on home runs), will have a higher percentage of total baserunners scored since you don't have to worry about driving in the guy that reached. Maybe it'd be interesting to look at percentage of baserunners not scored via home runs? You also might think about adding HBPs to your baserunners total - there's not too many, but they count.

As for tables, I believe you can either put <code> and </code> around your data and work at lining everything up or you can edit an already posted diary, insert all the html to make a table, and save it again.

by TheJay on Sep 19, 2007 12:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

To add to your point

Here's the league home run leaders by team. Wow, this list looks awfully familiar, doesn't it?!

Milwaukee Brewers
Philadelphia Phillies
Cincinnati Reds
Florida Marlins
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Houston Astros
San Diego Padres
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
Washington Nationals

This is what's called "confounding variables."

by Wreckard on Sep 19, 2007 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I'm not mistaken

the Angels are just about dead last in homers compared to the other AL teams and they are doing pretty good.

It all starts with pitching folks. We have all seen powerful offenses peeter out in the playoffs or not make the playoffs because their pitching blows.

Balanced offenses are the ones that are dangerous in the playoffs - similar to the one the Cubs had in 03 - Great 1 & 2 with Lofton and Gruds and enouph power in the 3-4-5 to get the job done.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Sep 20, 2007 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you, kcjones.

Very interesting breakdown. I've been saying this all season long. It's called: Not enough RBI's. But every time I mention we are frustrated at the waste of RBI chances for our power hitter by putting him # 1 in the lineup I'm told that Lou and the hitter want it that way. Well, less runs scored mean more losses. You know why Milwaukee is # 1? 2, 3, 4 runs HR's.

by Fraggin Judge on Sep 19, 2007 8:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

interesting stuff

the top guys are all the top offenses in the league, maybe the silver lining of this is that our offense lately has been playing more up to the expectations people had for it going into the season. last night you have to give them somewhat of a pass as harang is just good. i expect a pounding of this 30-year-old rookie tonight.

Matt Murton career in September: .321/.401/.576, 10 jacks (165 ab). Make sure Matt the Bat gets in the lineup this month Lou!

by kylejo on Sep 19, 2007 8:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That "30-year-old rookie"....

... is 3-0, including wins over both the Mets and Brewers.

I sure hope you're right, but I also hope the Cubs don't underestimate him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Sep 19, 2007 8:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

his game log

was pretty unimpressive, too many walks, not a lot of k's, a righty...just the kind of guy id expect a good offense, and thats what i believe we have, to tee off on.

Matt Murton career in September: .321/.401/.576, 10 jacks (165 ab). Make sure Matt the Bat gets in the lineup this month Lou!

by kylejo on Sep 19, 2007 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

1984 is interesting...

Cubs and SD were pretty much 1-2 in "this category"

http://knology.net/~johnfjarvis/datapages/stats1984n.html#12

and ditto in 89 for Cubs and Giants...

http://knology.net/~johnfjarvis/datapages/stats1989n.html

The best defense is a good offense

by kcjones on Sep 19, 2007 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting stuff

Using the # of cubs baserunners, the league-wide spread (Milwaukee to Washington) is 117. I don't have time right now as I'm late for work, but can somebody add 117 runs to the Nationals' pythagorian equation and see what their record would be expected to be right now?

by Invalid User on Sep 19, 2007 9:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs