Bleed Cubbie Blue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Sounder At Heart for Seattle Sounders Fans!

Thursday Morning Headlines

  • Rick Telander explains!
    I made the point that [Andre] Dawson deserves to be in the Hall of Fame -- and he will be by next year, mark my words -- but that my protest needed to encompass even the straight arrows of yore, such as him, because the sown doubt from clown-farmers Bud Selig, Donald Fehr and the say-nothing players themselves had made even the greatest, most trustworthy heroes suspect.

    If no one can be proved guilty of taking performance-enhancing drugs, no one can be proved innocent. It's an equation.

    At any rate, once I read the column to Dawson, he got it.

    "I understand you now," he said. "I know that regardless of what I've accomplished, it doesn't count. Because nobody is trustworthy."

    I guess. I'm not sure I agree with that point -- in effect, what Telander is saying is that because steroids are used now, they make everyone guilty across every era -- but at least he's explained himself. I wish he had put it better the first time. And this was a poor way of making a protest -- if, as he says, Dawson will get in next year (and implying he'll probably vote for him), why is everyone suddenly trustworthy again because a year's time has passed?

    Food for thought.

  • The Brian Roberts deal is going to happen. No, really. Seriously. This time for sure. Phil Rogers has the lineup card all filled out, too:
    If the Cubs get Roberts (.377 on-base percentage and 50 stolen bases last season), Piniella will shuffle the batting order, likely dropping Alfonso Soriano from first to third. It could look like this: Roberts, Ryan Theriot, Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee, Geovany Soto and Felix Pie.

    It could look like that, but probably won't. (And I'm figuring this will start the firestorm of debate that flares up here every time I remind people that Alfonso Soriano's not going to be dropped out of the leadoff spot.)

  • Goose Gossage says that if he were playing today, he'd probably have tried steroids. Nice thing to say the day after you're elected to the Hall of Fame, Goose. And this doesn't make sense, either:
    "I've been in that situation, trying to prolong my career with the money that was out there to be made at this time in baseball. I can't sit here and say that I would not have done it," he said. "But had I done it, I'm going to face the consequences. And the consequences are, that whether they belong in the Hall of Fame or not, the records can't stand."

    "The records can't stand"? How so? The numbers are what they are -- you can't start randomly eliminating numbers from the record books without ripping up the fabric of history. Example: take Barry Bonds' HRs away (or some of them, anyway, say, many of them after 1998, which is the time when he supposedly started doing steroids). What happens to the results of the games where those HR were hit? What if Bonds hit a HR, or several, that won games for the Giants? What if those HR put the Giants into the playoffs some of the years they made them? Do you take those postseason games out of the books?

    You see the problem here, I think.

  • Mike Downey shows that he understands counting stats! He's got 45 Hall of Famers (and says there are a "couple of dozen" more, and that doesn't even include all the pitchers) listed who have fewer hits than Harold Baines, who got "only" 28 votes this year. As if that alone would qualify Baines for the Hall. And then, there's this nonsense:
    Bert Blyleven is not a Hall of Famer. That is a fact as well as an opinion. I have friends and colleagues who all but crusade for Blyleven's candidacy, year after year, citing his very impressive shutout and strikeout counts.

    Yet I cannot bring myself to deem Blyleven any better or more worthy than Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Jack Morris and so many others who have failed to gain admission to the Hall. I can't find the discrepancy in their careers.

    Hmmm. Blyleven's not qualified? That's a "fact"? Let's see; you can't figure out why a man who's fifth all-time in strikeouts and ninth all-time in shutouts isn't more qualified than Jim Kaat (33rd and 103rd in those categories, respectively), John (47th & 26th) oir Morris (31st and 134th)?

    Actually, I think Tommy John ought to be in, for career longevity and the fact that a famous surgery is named for him, and Kaat's a marginal Hall of Famer for longevity and reinventing his career a couple of times; Morris is borderline. But Blyleven's head and shoulders above all three of them -- and likely, rubbed Downey the wrong way during his career, as he did to a lot of writers, which is probably the reason he isn't in yet.

    There. Let me wipe my fingers off (after typing about all of that, they need that!) and you can have at it.

0 recs  |  Comment 169 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Why
do we have so many bad sportswriters in Chicago?  
This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.

by HectorVillanueva on Jan 10, 2008 9:27 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

and that's a fact!
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 10, 2008 9:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking about this, too
It's not that they're bad writers in a literal sense.  If given the space and time, most of them can and do string sentences together far better than most bloggers.  (Rick Telander being an exception.)  

It's just they're confined by a few major factors:

  1.  Word counts
  2.  Writing for a broad audience.  You try writing for casual fans aged 9 to 90 while also appealing to the die hards that spend every free moment thinking about the game.  (And do it in 850 words.)
  3.  When writing an opinion piece, as opposed to simply reporting the news, they have to take a strong stand on one side of an issue.  Straddling the line and presenting both sides evenly doesn't sell papers.
Throw in the fact that they have to cover sports and athletes all day long, they probably don't spend much free time surfing the web for fan opinion and/or enlightening analysis.  They talk to players and people in the game for information.  

There are a few good sports writers in Chicago, and a bunch that are merely adequate.  Only a few are truly bad.

by MikeJ on Jan 10, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

King Fraud
I think Downey lacks ideas and that has to be a terrible feeling for a columnist.  Imagine the panic one must feel in a profession where the work entails writing short, substantive arguments a few times a week and yet the well is perpetually dry.  He probably knows he's a fraud and it must be excruciatingly painful to be such a public fraud.  I can't imagine why he doesn't hide in a small town newspaper where his fraudulence would be noticed by fewer readers.

In today's column he employs one of his favorite devices for hiding his dearth of substance:  the ridiculously long list.  He devoured a huge portion of his word count by rattling off names like Johnny Mize and Pie Traynor and George Sisler, names very few of his readers will know.  He could have made the same point in a single sentence.  If he truly believes his point he should have arrived at such a belief after considering the alternatives and discounting them.  Gee, recounting that process would be a good way to fill the space no longer occupied by a list.  Acknowledging what should be an obvious weakness of his point (e.g. "I know hit totals aren't everything and I realize guys like Mantle, Gehrig, and DiMaggio aren't in Cooperstown because their careers looked like Baines' career..").  After that a better writer might reveal his earlier statement as a feint and fall back to a slightly weaker position which should represent the real point he wants to make (e.g. "..I'm just saying that this is one of the ways people can get into the Hall and Baines beats out an awful lot of good players including some of the great hitters..").  Or he could go over the top and make a strong statement that discounts the weakness he's just acknowledged (e.g. "Even though hit totals aren't everything, they represent an indispensible part of the game and I think anyone with the sheer number of hits Baines has should be enshrined automatically even if he contributed nothing else to his teams..").  His arguments are routinely insulting to his readers.  I have to stop or I'll get worked up.

by Copter OBob on Jan 10, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Downey
Downey's column today was pure shit, but overall he's not the worst offender in town.  Not by a long shot.  I find myself getting at least mild value from his work occasionally, and that's more than I can say for Rick Telander.  Really, how does that man keep his job?  

What's funny is that I use to like Telander back in the old "Sportswriters on TV" days, when he was the "young, cool one."  He was good in Sports Illustrated, too, and I remember being excited when he moved to the Sun-Times.  I read him fairly religiously for the first few years, but it took that long to fully realize that he had absolutely nothing to offer.

by MikeJ on Jan 10, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.
I used to like Telander's stuff too, and oddly, he's the only one among the Chicago columnists who actually played a sport at a fairly high level (college FB at Northwestern).
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Writing a daily column is a lot different
than writing stories or books.  He's a hell of a writer of longer stuff - His books "Heaven Is A Playground" and "The Hundred Yard Lie" are very good.  And he's had some stuff included in The Best Sports Writing yearly series that is downright wonderful.

by TR on Jan 10, 2008 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt
The books he wrote a long time ago were great, as were his longer SI columns.  But his daily columns are completely worthless.  He simply never digs into a subject.  

He just skims the surface.

With one-sentence paragraphs.

Sometimes less.

And if he does dig in, it's always from a pure grumpy-old-man standpoint.  

Things were better and pure in my day.

He is...a curmudgeon.

by MikeJ on Jan 10, 2008 2:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sportswriters on TV
I have a lower opinion of Downey's column than of Telander's but I suppose that's like saying I think arsenic is tastier than strychnine.  Both are poisons.

Oh how I miss Jerry Holtzman.

by Copter OBob on Jan 10, 2008 4:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Downey
Several writers frustrate me for one reason or another but how Mike Downey collects a pay check is beyond me. He "came out of retirement" to write for the Trib but so far as I can tell, he never actually left retirement. I have yet to find one piece of meaningful writing that this man has come up with during his tenure at the Trib.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 10, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good hodgepodge of stuff this morning
A few thoughts:
  • Well at least now I can see some logic in what Telander is trying to do.  Not sure I agree with his approach but I understand.  
  • Brian Roberts?  Are the Cubs trying to get him ;-)  Phil Rogers is a moron.  Even if (which I don't believe) Soriano is moved out of the leadoff spot, Theriot will not be moved up to #2 and Lee down to #6.  Lee as #2 makes more sense than what Rogers is spouting.  Hard to believe he gets paid for that.  I guess under his math that all players are worth +1 so it doesn't matter where anyone hits.  
  • I was a big Baines fan but he is not HOF-worthy.  Rarely if ever was he really considered a feared, top of the league hitter.  Very solid for a long time but not in the Dawson or even Rice category.  I'd put Dale Murphy in before Baines too.  Just counting hits is a stupid way to look at it.  There are lots of players like Fred McGriff who would be in if you just start looking at counting stats.  The one player that I was surprised got so little support was Tim Raines.  I wasn't sure he would get in on his first try but he is far away from it right now.

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 9:34 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Baines got only 28 votes for a good reason.
Number of seasons with 100 runs scored: 0
Number of seasons with 30 HR or more: 0
Number of seasons with 100 RBI or more: 3
Number of seasons hitting .300 in 500+ AB: 3
Times appeared in top 10 of MVP voting: 2
Times leading league in major offensive category: 1 (SLG, 1984 AL)

He just wasn't that great. He was a very good player for a very long time. And without the DH, with his injuries, he'd likely have had to retire ten years before he did. Number of games played in the field in last 10 years of his career: 24 (23 of them at age 33, only 1 after that)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Good synopsis
That's why I mentioned that I would put Murphy in before Baines.  Baines had longevity thanks to the DH but Murphy's peak was much, much better.  

I don't think Murphy had a good enough career for the HOF either but Baines definitely didn't.  I don't think you should get in on just longevity.  There needs to be a pretty good peak period.  I'd even take someone like Albert Belle over Baines.  At least Belle was dominating for a few years.          

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 10:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

another reason why the DH is an abomination
DH'ing is only a part of the game, not all of it.

That's why I believe big Papi shouldn't be an MVP candidate. There's this thing called defence.

OK, OK, I'm ranting...

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 10, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Your point is taken...
... and I don't like the DH either.

But David Ortiz is ten times the hitter Harold Baines was, in virtually every category. If there were no DH, he'd play 1B -- maybe not very well, but well enough, given his bat.

5 straight years in the top 5 of MVP voting. Three straight years of 35+ HR, 110+ runs, 100+ walks, 115+ RBI, and 158 or higher OPS+.

Baines never came close to any of those numbers.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Baines
I agree.  I don't think Baines is getting much support from my fellow Sox fans for a HoF push.

Baines could have gone beyond a very good career to a great career IF he had injuries hampered him.  But that's probably the case with many other players.

Harold, Thanks for a very good career Harold.  I hope you saved and/or invested the 23 million dollars you earned in your career.  

HoF rankings, BAINES/SANTO/MURPHY

BLACK INK: 3/11/31 (AVG HOF 27)
GRAY INK: 40/147/147 (AVG HOF 144)
HOF STANDARDS: 43.6/41/34.3 (AVG HOF 50)
HOF MONITOR: 66.5/88/115.5 (AVG HOF 100)

"...the Sox ... may be even more marginal after the Cubs win the 2007 World Series." - Cubbie fan "Joe Alberti" as posted in the White Sox NG on 9/21/2007.

by DrCrawdad on Jan 10, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Word to your ...
"Baines could have gone beyond a very good career to a great career IF injuries had NOT hampered him."
"...the Sox ... may be even more marginal after the Cubs win the 2007 World Series." - Cubbie fan "Joe Alberti" as posted in the White Sox NG on 9/21/2007.

by DrCrawdad on Jan 10, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rogers' math
It just occurred to me that every team starts the season +13 (8 regulars, 5 in the rotation) under Rogers' brilliant formula.  I suppose it would improve a team's chances dramatically if it eliminated the bullpen and just made all the relief pitchers starters.  With a 12 man rotation your team is +20!  Hooray!  If you can substitute some minor league pitchers for the platoon guys and the bench players then your team could be +25.  Hey, who wouldn't want that?  Opposing teams would tremble with such fear it would make the Earth shake.  "We can't beat them," they'd cry.  "They're +25 and some of their pitchers have been resting for weeks."

by Copter OBob on Jan 10, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Telander and Rogers.....
......are really starting to get noticed for the wrong reason.  I explained Rogers theory to my girlfriend who knows baseball but on the surface and she thought is was idiotic.  Telander made an ass out of himself this week in my opinion.

Al, everytime I see people move Sori out of the #1 spot it humors me, it could happen but wont.  Dero could play SS but wont.  Lee will NOT HIT 6th.....he should have coleagues tell him that what he is writing is stupid.  Theriot is the perfect 8 hitter for this team, not 2 hitter.

Thankfully this site only has a few dopes but when I got to some trade rumor sites its hilarious when they post lineups.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 9:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Applying Telander logic
Well, that seals it then.  Clearly Ripken was using.  I mean, how else can you explain the consecutive game streak?  And don't forget Tony Gwynn - all this time, I thought those were love handles...

Thanks Rick, for opening my eyes.  I had no idea that the best way to approach this was to just distrust everybody.  No room for individual thought here, just lump 'em all together.  

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to go get my pitchfork and torch ready for the next icon...

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 10, 2008 9:48 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

LSA
and I'll just add a favorite Rozner line, "I'm going to listen for my brain aneurysm now".
Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 10, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

FYI To Everyone - New Piniella PodCast Out (1/8/8)
Nothing really new, but it's good to hear him.

He mentioned that there is "one more (offensive) piece" that he needs, and that Hendry is working around the clock to get it for him.

I get the PodCast through a subscription through iTunes.

by initram on Jan 10, 2008 9:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hope there is
one more pitching piece also.

I'll reiterate: Marquis and Dempster in the rotation scares the living shit out of me.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 10, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I still think...
... one of those two will be traded by Opening Day.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well if you have some magic formula...
magic ball or anything of the like that can help do this, I for one will be happy.

At this time, I may be more happy with the unknown than with the known.

3/5ths of a good rotation does not a champion make.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 10, 2008 10:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I Can't Agree More...
... although Piniella said that he thinks he needs one more offensive piece.

We've all heard that Hendry is going after (1) Roberts, (2) a RH who can play all outfield positions (like OF #4, thus pushing Murton), and (3) a veteran SP.

by initram on Jan 10, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You can't say, "I want a pitcher"
when you have 7 candidates already for the rotation.  That'd be like saying in a press conference "Get me someone who can catch the ball," when talking about your catcher.  We won't hear much publicly about pursuit of a pitcher until Marquis is traded.  My prediction for next year's rotation:

Zambrano
Lilly
Lieber
Hill
Dempster

(Yes, I know Hill is a better pitcher than Lieber, but I think that's how they'll stack the rotation up to start the season.)  That's really not a bad rotation and ideally it leaves open some slots, especially in '09, but potentially this year as well for a rookie who proves he's ready.

In parsing Lou's words, I would focus on that "one...offensive piece" part, that they aren't looking for two.  Maybe Lou thinks the RH-OF is not so necessary.  I do think there is something to say for letting Pie hit LHP regularly and not committing to platooning him.  But it's going to be ugly for a while.

All I am saying is give Pie a chance!

by DGU on Jan 10, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Be Surprised If...
... Dempster is given a chance at the starting rotation and does not make it.  He may very well end up back in the bullpen.

The last I heard is that the Mets were interested in Marquis -- this goes back to an MLBTR note some weeks back.

Also, Hart has a legitimate shot at the starting role.

by initram on Jan 11, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure we can
but of course not the GM; at this time.

If the current staff isn't believed to be strong enough to win (even if there's 10 candidates), it has to be improved. What's implied in "wanting a pitcher" is wanting one that is a notable improvement to one of the current 5 starting staff.

Of course Jim won't say this publicly, he's being respectful. Just like he didn't come out about a RF need until after Jones was dealt and Floyd was not picked up for the option.

From our standpoint, I think its safe to say we all believe the current rotation possibilities (with known commodities, not a minor leaguer that will come out of nowhere and pitch lights out through the end of October) will likely not cut it if we want to be celebrating at the end of October.

On press conferences, well I guess that would be the wrong platform to make that announcement. Though Lou will have one of his top 10 comments last year being the 35'-40' curveball comment about Ohman, he was ranting.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 14, 2008 6:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone...
... who thinks that Derrek Lee will hit 6th next year doesn't deserve to write a sports column in a high school newspaper, and especially doesn't deserve to write a column in any major newspaper.

by big_lowitzki on Jan 10, 2008 10:19 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
And, regardless of how many times Al says it, I just can't see Soriano leading off if we get Roberts.  It just doesn't make any sense to me to waste that kind of power.

You don't trade the farm for a leadoff hitter and then have him bat anything other than leadoff.

Then again, Al is waaaay more "in the loop" than I am.

by Kornchex on Jan 10, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The lineup
I'm also in the Soriano will remain in leadoff camp.  To me, it's also a matter of no other lineup makes sense.  Piniella is very concerned about breaking up lefties and righties.  That's why he stuck Floyd at #2 sometimes last season.  Any lineup with Roberts in leadoff has either a long string of RH batters or has someone like Lee or Soriano down in the 6th position which I just don't buy.  

Yes, Roberts has been a leadoff hitter in the past but his skills also would be very good in the #2 spot.  In fact, he might be the Cubs best #2 hitter.    

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Technically...
Derek Lee is your best #2 hitter.  His all around numbers suggest that is where he belongs, and Aramis should be a number 3 hitter.  I think the main thing the cubs have lacked in the past few years is a defiant number 4 hitter.  

Dont get me wrong, i am not complaining or bashing the current players, i am just describing their at the plate performance and how it really translated into different spots in the line-up.

"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"

by HIGGY on Jan 10, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd say Ramirez is a pretty solid #4 hitter...
he's averaged over 30 HR and over 100 RBI per year for years, so I don't see how he's not suited to be a #4 hitter.

Also, Lee was a pretty solid #3 hitter in the second half of last year, and in 2005 and 2006 prior to the injury.  If his second half is any indication, he's ideal for the #3 spot again as his power returned.

What wey've lacked is a true leadoff hitter and a #5 hitter.  

Ignoring the debate surrounding whether or not Soriano freaks out in the #5 spot, that's the spot he's best suited for.  It'd take advantage of his power and his speed (he can run in front of the #6-8 hitters).

However, I don't think Piniella/Hendry are going to move him down.  I think they see Fukudome (who SHOULD be a #2 hitter) as a #5 hitter.  Thus, they think they'll have the following lineup:
Soriano/Roberts/Lee/Ramirez/Fukudome/Soto/Pie/Theriot

It's not necessarily the most sensible lineup, but it's what I think Lou will do.  He likes splitting up his lefties and he likes speed at the top of the order.

by SouthernCub on Jan 10, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This may be
this first time I have seen someone write the exact lineup I would like to see (pending whether or not we get Roberts)
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Leadoff
I understand Al's and everyone else's reasoning as to why Lou won't switch the lineup to let Brian Roberts lead off if he is acquired by the Cubs. But if Lou doesn't let Roberts bat first in the lineup he will just confirm the impression he left me with in 2007: He's a mediocre strategist and yet a great manager in other aspects.

by Fraggin Judge on Jan 10, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Flip Ramirez/Dome and Pie/Theriot...
... and you have my preferred lineup.

A-Ram has admitted he feels more comfortable in the #5 spot.  Fukudome likely bats second, unless we land Roberts.  

By the AM radio reports in the last couple of days, it is looking less and less likely (30% chance)...

by initram on Jan 11, 2008 12:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My bad...
I didnt mean to stay that i felt they were not strong #3 and #4 hitters respectively.  What i was saying is there batting style (Lee is a very good contact hitter - and Aramis never strikes out), i think they are more suited for a #2 and #3 role respectively.  And you stated Aramis' stats over the past few years, think of how more productive he would have been if he was supported by a guy behind him (whether it is a 4 in my case, or a 5 in your case)

The misconception that the #2 hitter needs to be quick on the bases (allbeit Lee has good speed) isnt technically true.  You need a guy in the 2 hole that will produce and get on base consistently to allow for your #3 to knock him around.

Now addressing what you said about the line-up.  You are exactly right about Fukudome, with the addition of him we now have a true #2 hitter (but he will most likely not be used as such.  He is not a number 5.  We have a number 5, but he leads off.  So, yes i would agree with you that in the current situation we need a lead-off guy and a number 5.

"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"

by HIGGY on Jan 11, 2008 7:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

hall of shame
the hall of fame vote is just a chance for every writer to try to make themselves a story.  telander has already got two days of material out of it...so downey obviously had to counter with something just as "shocking".

by bernok on Jan 10, 2008 10:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Shockingly stupid...
... is what it was.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The real crazy thing
is that all these guys/gals are automatically called "experts".

I would ask; experts at what?

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 10, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Experts at...
... talking someone into giving them a high-paid, public-figure job and keeping it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it.
If you're looking for a free column out of this, couldn't you, I dunno, write a bit about how the guy fifth in career stolen bases somehow got left out of the Hall of Fame?

Yeah, I'm going to keep banging this drum for a while.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Raines will get in eventually...
... maybe even as soon as next year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you might be right
though maybe not next year.  I think Raines got the "Not on the first ballot" shaft.  I'd be willing to bet that his support will double and maybe even triple next year.  Other than this being his first year on the ballot his other problem is that he is a statheads candidate and that surely rubs some of the old guard the wrong way, especially when a "feared" slugger like Jim Rice can't seem to get in.  Maybe next year when they elect Rice they'll wise up and elect Raines as well, then the old and the new can shake hands and call a truce for a day.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 2:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's an odd state of affairs...
...when a guy mostly known for his basestealing is the "stathead" choice.

You're absolutely right. It's just... odd.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're right
That's the kind of thing that usually gets overvalued by the uninformed, not undervalued.  It is odd when you look at it that way.  Obviously 800 isn't one of the round numbers that count towards election.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Al...I pointed this out yesterday elsewhere, but
I'll put it here as well.  

Steroids have been around athletics for a long time.  Long before Dawson's career began and even before the great Nolan Ryan's career began.  Lyle Alzado began taking them in 1967 and said they were easy to acquire at numerous gyms across the country.  

I mean no disrespect by this, but it's absolutely foolish to think that players that began their careers in the mid to late 60s through the late 70s are all innocent.  It was these players that sat and watched the proliferation of steroids into the sport you and I both love.  It was these guys who kept their mouths shut that you now blame the likes of Palmeiro, Sosa, and Bonds for.  

The use of steroids prior to 1967 by athletes was also probably more than we'll ever know or want to know, but the fact of the matter is that by 1975 they were prevalent in all sports and used by as many athletes as use them today (actually, there are probably fewer who use them today because of testing).  HGH was readily available at this time as well.

The point of this is that any and all players who began their careers after 1967 are due speculation about whether or not they used performance enhancing drugs.  Every single one of them.  

Did Dawson use?  I have no clue.  If the measure of whether or not someone used is if they didn't decline as you would typically expect then the answer is probably no, but that also means that former and current greats have taken them.  It's a stupid way to measure whether or not someone has used steroids because baseball has proven that each and every generation brings with it a handful of stars, or more, that simply aren't your typical ballplayers in any way, shape or form.  

Just because you like Dawson and haven't heard speculation doesn't mean he didn't use.  It simply means the media is too stupid to realize that PEDs were prevalent in sports while Dawson played...while Dawson was still in high school or junior high for that matter.  

The author you've been complaining about for two days has it right in my opinion.  They all deserve to be treated on an equal platform and that means that they're all either guilty or not guilty since we sure as hell are never going to know the overwhelming majority of the players who have used these substances.  I would prefer the author treat them as if they were all not guilty, but at least he's got it half right, which is 50% more right than any of these other members have it.

And before anyone tries to tell me I'm insane for saying Dawson may have used...read this again.  I never said he did.  I simply said it's foolish and irresponsible of anyone to assume that he didn't when we know for an absolute fact that steroids were prevalent in sports when he played AND that if you want to blame any players for how steroids became so popular in sports, blame these guys (Dawson, Rice, Gossage, etc) because they were the ones who closed their eyes and allowed it to take over the sport.  Their errors were already completed by the time the likes of Bonds, McGwire and Sosa ever came around.  

by Maddog on Jan 10, 2008 10:38 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Where's your evidence?
You state that PED's, specifically steroids and HGH, were prevalent in sports in the 1960's and 1970's.

If you have specific evidence to cite, I'd like to see it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

PEDS in the Olympics
It was not unusual in the 60s and 70s.

A survey was taken of Olympians in 1972 when steroids were banned.  68% of them admitted to using steroids in some capacity.

Of course, it was in the late 70s that the East Germans had a state sponsored doping program for olympians.  It has been argued whether or not the athletes knew what they were getting as they were told that they were getting "vitamins".  achem....maybe B12!

For that matter, in 776 BC Ancient Greeks were known to eat sheep testicles as a way to intake testosterone!!!   If you put it that way, having a trainer inject you in the butt doesn't seem so bad!

by Ghost of Fred Merkle on Jan 10, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Olympics, OK.
So you're tarring all baseball players from that era because some Olympians did steroids?

That's a stretch.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

an athlete is an athlete
how many athletes dont want to have an edge over their competition?  if steroids were available, and not illegal or banned by baseball, why would players NOT use them?
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 10, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"you're"
I wasn't making a statement on baseball players any which way.  

I'm simply stating that steroids were a problem in the 60s and 70s for the Olympics.  Athletes used them to enhance their performance.

That said, it certainly is conceivable for a baseball player to try them.  The opposing argument would be what was alluded to below in that baseball players preached flexiblity more than muscle up until the recent years.

by Ghost of Fred Merkle on Jan 10, 2008 12:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ben Johnson
This is off-topic, but interesting.   Most of us remember 1988 when Ben Johnson was stripped of his gold medal for steroid use.  By default, Lewis was given the gold medal.

During the US TRIALS for those same olympics, Carl Lewis was busted for using stimulants.  The letter was all but issued to ban him from the Olympics.  But the US decided to bury it and allow him to compete.

It was shortly after that when the Olympic committee itself control of the testing for each country's trials.

Interesting stuff.

by Ghost of Fred Merkle on Jan 10, 2008 12:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What was Lewis taking?
Estrogen? LOL.
Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hilarious
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 10, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Lyle Alzado's claims
represent factual information, Al.  He regularly bought his steroids at local gyms where they were readily available.  HGH too.  

As someone else said, the Olympics banned them in 1972.  Do you think they banned them because they didn't think athletes were using them?  Of course they were.  If Olympians were using them, so were professional athletes.  Remember, these guys have more money than amateurs.

The point is that they've been readily available for decades and athletes have taken them on a regular basis for that long as well.  It's foolish to think that baseball players of that era weren't taking them.  Were they all?  No, but some certainly were yet that generation gets a pass and in my opinion, it was that generation that is far more responsible for the damage than this one.  They're the lazy fucks who kept their mouths shut and turned a blind eye that allowed it to overtake the sport.  

I'm not saying Dawson did steroids.  I'm only pointing out that it's silly to assume he didn't when we know they were as readily available then as they are now.  

by Maddog on Jan 10, 2008 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes... those Raider teams he played for
Were labeled with the reputation of being a bunch of crazy hot head maniacs... virtually creating the whole intimidation factor that the old Raiders became known for.

You think steroids played a factor into that?

There's absolutely no question that professional athletes have been taking PED's for decades. Just a matter of who they were, and how their use of them effected the outcome on the field, and the sporting league they played for.

Athletes are competitive individuals... they want to win... and sometimes will try new things to get an edge.

None of this is new in the large scheme of things.    

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 1:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The problem with that is...
...is the rank hypocrisy that comes from taking that sort of view if you're a BBWAA member. I know you're no such thing, so this doesn't directly apply to you.

Remember, these guys were travelling with teams and spending time in clubhouses all throughout the steroids era. They had frontrow seats for the entire thing, and they absolutely refused to confront what was going on, even after Canseco got busted and it was obvious something was going on here.

It's all well and good, and even true, to say that we'll never know what happened for certain in the steroids era. But that's at least partly the fault of the sportwriters who ignored the whole thing, and for them to play the sanctimony card at this late stage of the game?

This isn't honesty and this isn't good judgement. This is refusing to take account and pay for one's own sins - since you didn't do your job as the "fourth estate watchdog" like they taught you in J-school, you can't fairly sit there and lecture us on right and wrong. This really comes off like trying to get the players to take everybody's share of the blame for this. And it comes from people who have a share of the blame.

Before any of these guys feed us any more sanctimonious bullcrap, they need to write a piece entitled "How I Screwed Up Covering Up The Steroids Era, And Why." Each and every one of them.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 10:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But do do we!
Writers aren't the only ones who need to write that piece, the fans do, too. Maybe not each and everyone one but the fact of the matter is that this entire tangled web is also in part the fault of the fans. I could go at length into the generation of fans who needs visual stimulation to no end, cannot enjoy a 2-1 pitchers dual, "digs the long ball", etc. The thing is that writers, players, managers have a role in this all, but so do the fans.

That, however, does not allow me to not have and express outrage.

Rick Telander has come out and say that no player from the 1980's and 1990s is beyond suspicion. That could be Dawson or Rice, Maddux or Schilling. Saying that no one is beyond suspicion and even specifically say names does equal a belief of use. Every player is a part of a larger era and what Telander is saying is that:
 a.) the actions of the players during his era who used along with
b.) Dawson's and other player's inaction in dealing with the situation that was in their own clubhouse
has led to a situation where no one is beyond suspicion.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 10, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Point B, however...
... presumes that:
  1. it WAS going on in clubhouses that Dawson (to use your example) was in during his career, AND THAT
  2. he ignored it.
That's a REAL stretch. I'm not denying that things like this happened, because we know they did.

But tarring ALL players with that brush isn't fair.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Tarring some players isn't either, Al.
Despite the fans attempt to pain this as a black and white issue, it's far from it.  Every single person who took part in baseball (and all sports for that matter) bears some responsibility for what has happened with regards to PEDs.  If anyone buys the garbage that some players didn't know what was going on, you're awfully naive.  We're talking about a clubhouse of men partying like they're teens and practically living together for 8 months out of the year.  The only way more gossip is created than that situation is a bunch of sorority sisters sitting around a fire drinking whiskey.  

These guys who say they didn't know what was going on are full of shit.  Every one of them knew what was going on and almost every one of them shut their mouth.  Did Dawson take steroids?  Again, I have no clue.  Did Dawson know people were taking steroids and not say a word and lie to us today about not knowing anything?  Undoubtedly he did know.  Dawson isn't blind or stupid so "I didn't know" bullshit doesn't work.  

by Maddog on Jan 10, 2008 2:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I remember a time when "bulking up"
was taboo for baseball players. When I played in the mid-to-late 70s, my coaches forbid any of us to lift weights to bulk up. I recall a steady diet of "protein shakes" and skipping rope. I also ran a lot. I also remember being offered what was called "black beauties" to "enhance my game." I refused to take anything and don't regret my decisions, but my baseball career fell short of my ambitions. Back then, the money wasn't what it is today. Today, big signing bonuses and lucrative contracts drive players to attempt to be what only a small % get to be--a cast member of THE SHOW. Once there, players partake to keep their jobs.

by flachimesa on Jan 10, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"bulking up"
I seem to remember in the 90's (???), Shawn Boskie got "busted" by Don Zimmer for lifting weights in the weight room.  He would sneak into the weight room to work out, and Zim didn't like it.   (or something like that....my exact memory of the incident is admittedly sketchy)

So, although the PEDs are part of the reason for enhanced numbers, the training routines have drastically changed as well.

by Ghost of Fred Merkle on Jan 10, 2008 11:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Training has changed among many other things
that people still ignore in favor of passing off this offensive era as a steroid-inflated one.  Smaller parks, more knowledge about nutrition, year round workouts...all of which have had more of an impact on a person's power than steroids, but don't tell the BBWAA.  

by Maddog on Jan 10, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and the fact that the strike zone shrunk...
...and the ball was juiced.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Among others...
it happened a long time ago, but along with the shrinking parks, the increase in weight training, the improvements in dietary supplements (both legal and illegal), the lowering of the mound certainly has helped.  As has the expansion, which seems to have exploited the dearth of pitching rather than hitting.

by SouthernCub on Jan 10, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth,
baseball players began working out and lifting weights a long time ago, but didn't work out during the season until the 70s.  Managers and coaches may not have liked it, but the player's desire to earn more money meant they didn't give a crap what those guys told them.  They still don't.

by Maddog on Jan 10, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And remember...
... back in "the old days", players had to work other jobs in the offseason, because they rarely made enough to NOT do so during the season.

That meant they couldn't work out in the offseason, and that's one reason spring training is still six weeks long -- back then they NEEDED that much time to get in shape.

Now, of course, spring training brings in big bux for exhibition games. There's really no reason for 30+ games before the "real" season starts, except for that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's also a good chance for managers...
...to evaluate their minor league talent and to work on certain things - like, say, moving players between positions.

But yeah, 30 games might be excessive for that.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 4:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Brian Roberts
I love players like Roberts -- high ob%, walk a lot, see lots of pitches -- the Cubs definitely need players like him to complement swingers like Soriano.  Fuku helps too.  I would love to see him play for the Cubs, but is Gallagher and Marshall too much (plus Cedeno)?  Marshall is still young and I have to assume that he will only get better year to year.  I would consider last year a successful season for him and Hill, even though they had some starts that were awful.  
"60% of the time, it works EVERY time."

by utcubby on Jan 10, 2008 10:51 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Leadoff spot...
If the Cubs leave him there, it's a bad move. I don't care how comfortable the guy is there, he'll learn to hit elsewhere.

Roberts should lead off. Period. Done. Nobody seems to be mentioning Derrek Lee hitting 2nd, especially if his power numbers are the same as last year. Fukudome 3rd, ARam 4th, etc...

Cubs chances in '08? Beats the FUK-U-DO-ME!

by Hugest Canadian Cubs Fan on Jan 10, 2008 10:59 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

If you...
....want to claim that everyone is wrong for wanting to keep Soriano in the leadoff spot than you have a lot of nerve giving the 3rd spot in the order (normally given to your best hitter) to someone who has never played a major league game.  I want Fuku to succeed BUT WHO KNOWS, he could be batting 8th by May.

Dont knock other peoples opinion then give an opinion on a player to hit 3rd that youve never seen other than youtube.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soooo......
we are allowed to knock others opinions as long as we don't put a relative unknown in the 3rd spot then???
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wacka Wacka Wacka
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 3:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey maybe
Lou will act like Larussa and hit Roberts 9th when Z and Marquis pitch, LOL

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Jan 10, 2008 11:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why did Dawson
have to get dumped into Telander's column anyways? What did the Hawk do to deserve his garbage writing? From what I learned and observed from Dawson was hard working, classy ballplayer. All Dawson did was play on essentially concrete for 10 years +, and have shredded knees for the rest of his career.
 As far as Roberts, would love him in the lineup just hate the fact that DeRosa gets pushed aside.
 And I agree from previous post, to have Dempster and Marquis at the end of the rotation will not get it done.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Jan 10, 2008 11:53 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Probably
because Dawson is almost beyond reproach for his conduct and class.  What better way to make an extreme point then use an extreme example.  It sucks for Andre but the burden is his because of his dignity and class.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Suggestion
Al, it might be fun next year if you could do some kind of ballot on here, along the lines of the polls, for the HOF and see who BCB readers would elect to the Hall. We can't come up with any more goofy votes or omissions than the writers.

If Gossage has such insight the day after he's elected, I'm a little curious as to see what his speech this summer will be like.  

by JDay on Jan 10, 2008 12:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Guys, it's over.
The division is lost.

The Cardinals have acquired Josh Phelps. Yeah, it's a minor-league contract. But that's just a ruse. They have acquired the final piece of the puzzle that will secure them the division.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 12:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Good Morning Mr. Phelps,
Your mission if you choose to accept is to play for a mid-market team that won the World Series just two years ago.  However, most of their talent has left or been injured and now are a shell of their former selves.  Their best player is a guy is last name is pronounced Pooh Holes.  (Please don't giggle.)  This post will self destruct in 5 seconds.
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 10, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

More likely to be of interest to Josh Phelps...
...is that the Cardinals' best player, Albert Pujols, is also one of the greatest players of our lifetimes. And, yeah, plays Phelps' position.

Hrm.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 1:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The .351/.463/.649 ...
... line he put up in a small-sample-size 2007 for the Pirates must have mesmerized John Mozeliak.

Phelps can catch, sort of. (12 career games.) Maybe that's what they want him to do, be a backup catcher.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey don't laugh
This might very well be the addition that does it for them.  Of course by "it" I mean fend off the Pirates for 5th place.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I stumbled across this internet article
written in July 2007 titled When Being Great Isn't Good Enough . Simply stated, if "Morris or Blyleven had played for the Yankees or the Dodgers, they'd have been voted in already."

by flachimesa on Jan 10, 2008 1:07 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Here's the key paragraph.
Alas, guys like Blyleven and Morris fall into that murky no-man's land. Then there's something to be said for playing in New York or Los Angeles. Talk about your media-skewing. There is no question that if Morris or Blyleven had played for the Yankees or the Dodgers, they'd have been voted in already. For example, no one disputes that the late Catfish Hunter was a great pitcher, but his 224 career wins place him 66th on the all-time list, well behind Blyleven and Morris. If Hunter had never put in those final years with the Yankees (1975-79), he might still be on the bubble despite his considerable earlier success with the Athletics. The reason? He didn't have the numbers.

Exactly.

Take the vote away from the writers. Now.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heck yes!
The writers should not control who goes into the HoF.  They have proven time and time again that the are biased and don't all abide by the same rules.  

by NO100 on Jan 10, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably right
for Morris at least.  If he'd played in one of those markets he'd probably get in because of it.  In Blylevens case though if he'd played on those teams he'd likely have won enough games to get to 300, so he'd get in for that accomplishment without needing the big market recognition.  Blyleven could have pitched in KC and gotten in if they'd scored a run once in awhile.

This raises a question that I've thought about.  If Blyleven had gotten 300 wins he'd be in.  If he'd had the good fortune to play for some better teams he'd have his 300 wins, even if he put up the exact same stats otherwise.  Surely the BBWAA voters (most of them anyway) realize this, yet they haven't voted him in.  However, if a lesser pitcher got the magical 300 he'd get voted in no problem.  Don Sutton comes to mind.  He was approximately Blyleven's equal though in reality he was not as good.  He didn't get voted in first ballot but he made it.  Isn't that hypocritical?  Do they really even care?  Everyone with a brain sees this stuff and realizes it, so essentially they are marginalizing themselves, cutting their own throats.  So I guess my question is how many more fiasco's like this and Jim Rice is it going to take before something is done and a workable system is put in place?  My gut tells me that as fewer and fewer of the old timey writers cast votes and more and more of the stat oriented writers start voting that things will work out better.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The reading comprehension here
is brutal.  As I said yesterday, Telander felt that those who were definitely guilty, tainted all the rest.  It was right there in black and white.  What was so damn hard to understand?  I know it made for lively discussion here - I compared it to the way Mike Murphy torturously turns a sentence from someone else's interview into an hour of his show.

It's sad that the guys who didn't cheat are lumped with those who did but unless you do a thorough investigation of everyone who played between 1975 and today, you'll just never know.  Some are guilty, some aren't, but everything all of them did on the field is under suspicion.  

And as for taking the vote away from the sportswriters and handing it to SABR - essentially a club anyone can join - really bad idea.  Might as well hand it directly to all fans.  And that's a really really bad idea.

by TR on Jan 10, 2008 1:40 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

What hurt was that Telander didn't cast a vote
Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who was hurt by Telander not voting?
I wasn't.  he didn't make a mockery of the thing by voting for Shawon Dunston or anything, he just abstained for reasons he thought were good.

by TR on Jan 10, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

When a guy like Dawson is trying to get in
It sure helps if he gets the hometown vote. But, Telander didn't even cast one.

That's like losing an election in your own backyard.  

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 2:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If we do get Roberts, Lou can finally move Soriano
Lou says to Soriano, "Look buddy, I know you like to bat 1st in the order, but we got this guy here, and he's one of the best at the top of the order. I can't NOT put him there."
Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 1:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, well, here's the thing.
Alfonso Soriano is a better hitter than Brian Roberts.

There are better hitters than Soriano on the Cubs, and ones better suited for leading off from a runs maximization standpoint. But we're talking about Derrek Lee and Kosuke Fukudome, the guys expected to put up specacular .380+ OBPs. Brian Roberts is not Fukudome or Lee. And Alfonso Soriano is a better hitter than Brian Roberts.

Can we seriously stop obsessing over this?

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LSA!
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually
the obsession seems to be with the crowd who thinks it makes sense to hit a power hitter that doesn't get on base a lot at leadoff.  They're the ones that have backed themselves into a corner, or slammed the door and swallowed the key by constantly stating that Soriano will NOT be moved.  Frankly, no matter what the non-conventional argument is about keeping Soriano in the leadoff spot, if you stop and look at the big picture it makes sense to move him down.  So basically I'll believe it when I don't see it.

Has anyone who doesn't think Soriano will be moved stopped to wonder why the organization is pursuing Brian Roberts when we already have a second baseman and leadoff hitter?  Could it possibly be that they realize our second baseman and our leadoff hitter could both be better utilized elsewhere?

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Moving Soriano out of the leadoff spot..
...just isn't going to happen, atleas that seems to be the consensus here at BCB, so it must be true.

 I don't know how everyone knows this to be a fact, but it is.

 Just like more than 50% of the BCB community thinks Cedeno backing up Pie in CF is just not that bad of an idea.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 10, 2008 2:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano requests to leadoff
He's spent much of his career asking managers to let him lead off.  He says he's more comfortable there for whatever reason.  Piniella was more than willing to give in to this request last year.  Given this history, it seems very reasonable to expect Soriano bat lead off next year.

As to Cedeno being a back up CF, you've yet to post a solid reason as to why this will not work.  Countless players throughout baseball history have successfully made the transition from one position to another mid-career.  Most players move from left to right along the defensive spectrum as they move into the majors or the latter parts of the career.  Please, make logical arguments with some support to them instead of simply calling people stupid.  It's a waste of time.

by snley on Jan 10, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey snley
 You are right about "countless" players throughout history have switched positions mid career. But no many have made that switch to CF. CF is easily the hardest OF position to play and learn. Yes it's been done before, as Biggio and Molitor were great examples of this, but generally players moving to CF is the least of these "countless" players switches, for the obvious reason of learning CF is the most difficult position change. Perfect example is how hard it was for Soriano last season.

 Another thing about these minimal players that have made the switch from one position to CF, is that the ball club that moves a player to CF feel that that players Offense will somehow minimize the growing pains of learning the hardest OF position. Which clearly, isn't the case with Cedeno.

 It was a bad idea a week and and even worse now. Also, it'll never happen, so let's end the discussion.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 10, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

CF is the most difficult OF position
But it's still the OF.  Seriously, anyone athletic enough should be able to handle the position.  The Cubs apparently think Cedeno can do it.  If Piniella's going to carry 12 pitchers, it makes sense that they'd want Cedeno to be able to BACK UP CF.  The thing I think you're overlooking in your ranting is that Cedeno would only be a back up.  As well, you keep looking back previous posters who have provided quotes and evidence that Cedeno is playing CF in winter ball at the Cubs' request.  Just because you think it's a bad idea, doesn't mean it's not going to happen.  I would much rather see Cedeno stick to SS.  In fact, I hope he can give Theriot a run for the starting job in ST b/c his bat doesn't suck nearly as much and is probably better w/ the glove.  Still, if Piniella is going to carry 12 pitchers all season, diversity from the bench players will be needed.  If this means that Cedeno plays some games in CF, so be it.  Again, it's not like he'll be out there everyday.  I'd be surprised if it's more than 20.

by snley on Jan 10, 2008 7:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OK then
show me a lineup without Soriano in leadoff that you realistically think Piniella will use.  Not the sabrematically best one but based on baseball traditions (yes, Lou follows them to a extent) and what Piniella has shown from last year.    

Do you really expect Lee to bat second?  Do you think that Fukudome will bat second so then there can be 4 or 5 straight RH batters?  Do you really think that Theriot will bat 2nd and then Lee or Soriano will be moved down to 6th which several people have posted here in recent days.  

The most logical lineup and one that it appears Piniella would use has Soriano leading off.      

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Logic would seem to indicate
that the best lineup is the one that scores the most runs, and it's been shown repeatedly that Soriano hitting leadoff leads to fewer runs being scored.  Under every circumstance.  
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong answer
Just plugging in numbers into a formula isn't how Lou will build his lineup.  What if the formula says to have 5 RH batters in a row.  Lou will not do it.  

I'm talking real-life not formulas.

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't matter
how many righties bat in a row, if Sori is hitting leadoff we score less.  How many lefties do we have now, one?  Seems like he's the guy who has to bat somewhere appropriate if we must break up the righties.  You can bat ARam leadoff and still break up the righties with Dome.  Why does it have to be Soriano?
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It doesn't matter what I think
It's what I expect Lou to do.  Why would he put Jacque Jones last season in the #2 spot sometimes over DeRosa who was a better hitter?  From all indications, I could tell he didn't want Sori, DeRo, Lee and ARam followed by 2 back to back lefties in Floyd and Jones.

We'll just have to disagree and see what happens if the Cubs acquire Roberts.  I'm not arguing what the Cubs should do but rather what I see Piniella doing.  I just don't see Roberts and Fukusome batting back to back and I surely don't expect Lee in the #2 spot.  

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Understood
And I can see your point, I just think there has to be a smarter way to do it without making what I consider a poor choice for the leadoff spot.  My personal preference is to see Soriano hit 5th, and contrary to his splits I believe he would adapt and thrive.  Maybe my faith in him is misplaced, and if so then by all means we could move him back.  As it is though I see it as a waste not only of his power but also of the 1st spot in the order because that spot needs .OBP more than anything, and that is distinctly not what he provides.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I absolutely agree
but what if we don't get Roberts?  Then who is going to lead off?  I don't want Sori in the lead off spot, he strikes out way to much but if we start the season with the current line-up, what choice do we have?  If Pie can start hitting like he does in AAA, then there's your lead off hitter.  Here's the ideal line-up with everybody on all cylinders:

Pie
Lee
Fukudome
Ramirez
Soriano
Derosa
Soto
Theriot

Again, this is best case scenario with every player playing at a high level.  This could be pretty damn scary to opposing pitchers if Pie and Fukudome can contribute like we hope they can.

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 11, 2008 8:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pie is not a leadoff hitter...
he doesn't take a lot of pitches and he doesn't get on base at a high rate.  I would be fairly surprised if his OBP is better than Soriano's next year.  I wouldn't anticipate Pie reproducing his magnificent AAA numbers from last year at the big league level.  If he did that (or came even close) then he'd be acceptable at nearly any spot in the order.

But at this point, it would take a substantial leap forward for Pie to become a leadoff hitter.  And I don't really see that being the best decision for his development or for the team.

by SouthernCub on Jan 11, 2008 8:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And FYI
Roberts is a switch hitter.  Do people realize that or just kind of leave it out when they're making their Soriano for President speaches?
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So to answer your question
Roberts  (switch hitter)
Dome
DLee
ARam
Sori
etc...

And if you prefer you could swap DLee and Dome when a right hander is pitching in order to keep the precious L/R/L/R in order since we all know that and that alone is what wins championships!

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 3:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

preaching to the choir page
 How anyone could argue that Soriano is actually a better option than Roberts is way beyond me.

 If someone wants to say "well Soriano was promised the lead off spot yada yada yada blech dlsflkfdsjfsdh" is one thing, but actually saying Soriano is a better choice is something I don't even bother with.

 Roberts is one of the best leadoff men in the game, who works every count and does everything a lead off hitter should do, but yet there still are Cubbie fans who think Soriano should lead off. It absolutely amazes me.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 10, 2008 6:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Roberts is signed
I'd see a lineup of:

Soriano LF
Roberts 2b
Lee 1b
Ramirez 3b
Fukudome RF
DeRosa SS
Soto C
Pie CF

or thats what'd i'd do..

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 10, 2008 3:11 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

What'd I'd do differs from what I think...
will happen.

I think Lou will go with this:
Soriano
Roberts
Lee
Ramirez
Fukudome
Soto
Pie
Theriot

With DeRosa filling in all over the place.  I'm not sure how I feel about that, but I think that's what would happen if we got Roberts.

If I had my druthers, I might get crazy and try:
Roberts
Lee
Fukudome
Ramirez
Soriano
Soto
Pie
Theriot

Or, I might just go with DeRosa instead and go with what you posted.  Ideally, I'd have Fukudome in the #2 spot, but I can't picture having my two LH bats at the top of the order together.  Otherwise, I'd say:

Roberts
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Soto
Pie
Theriot

by SouthernCub on Jan 10, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

order
Why not move Soriano to the two hole?  Preceding Lee, he would surely see plenty of fastballs.  Maybe more than he sees as a lead off man.
I like:  Roberts, Sori, Lee, ARam, Dome, Soto, Pie, Theriot/DeRosa, Pitcher.
"It's a funny old world. Man's lucky if he gets out of it alive." W.C. Fields

by KedzieKid on Jan 10, 2008 3:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why not?
Because it is a bad idea....and Lou likes his job I assume
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 3:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This
...would make Roberts stolen base potential of 50 decrease to about 20.  I understand where you are going having Lee hit behind him though.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 3:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heck
What's 30 SB's matter when all those 1st inning home runs Soriano is going to hit will be with the bases empty, as opposed to actually hitting him behind someone who'll get on base?  And I've been told that one of the reasons Soriano needs to hit leadoff is because of his speed.  Now all the sudden it's not a good idea to hit a speedy guy leadoff, because the guy hitting behind him has the ability to drive him in so he wouldn't need all that speed?  

Mind boggling!

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

HECK, as you say
The difference is Roberts was something like 10th in MLB last year at pitches seen per at bat.  Id rather have Roberts hitting behind Sori and not the other way around.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Um
So let me see if I got this right... It's better to have a guy who doesn't get on base much hitting behind a guy who's not as likely to drive him in anyway, as opposed to having a guy who does get on base hitting in front of a guy who is more likely to drive him in.  And this is because why?  Oh right, gotta give Soriano a chance to steal those bases!
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You answered your own question in that last line.
Soriano is averaging 34 stolen bases per season. Roberts 37.

Sorianos career avg. Runs+RBI  200
Roberts  career avg. Runs+RBI  161

Soriano looks to be a better leadoff producer to me.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because?
Let me see, he's a better producer because solo home runs are better than two run shots?  Nope, that's not it.  Maybe doubles with a man on are worse than doubles with the bases empty?  Nope, that's not it either.  Oh I see what the problem is, there's a flaw in your logic.  Runs scored and even more so RBI's are dependant on you teammates, not only on the person himself.  Makes sense to me that playing in a bandbox like Texas or a lineup like the Yankees would seem to make someone more productive no matter where they hit.  

You're not going to start arguing that the Orioles have had great lineups now are you?  ;)

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think
...we will just agree to disagree.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Another flaw
Runs produced = Runs + RBI - HR

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 10, 2008 10:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So I am still right
Sorianos career avg. Runs+RBI-HR  164
Roberts  career avg. Runs+RBI-HR  151

Soriano produces more runs from the leadoff spot.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 11, 2008 8:58 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's not really support for your argument...
Yes, Soriano produces more runs from the leadoff spot than Roberts.  That's obvious, based on the fact that he hits more doubles and HR and has a higher OPS.  The relevant question is, given that he produces more runs in a tough spot to get RBI, would Soriano produce even MORE runs in a spot in the middle of the order?

All you've shown is that Soriano is a better run producer than Roberts.  That doesn't prove he should be hitting leadoff.  It just shows he's a more productive hitter than Roberts.  That answer would probably be the same answer in ANY spot in the order.

What would be a good argument is if you can show that the combination would produce more runs with Soriano at leadoff and Roberts somewhere else than with Roberts at leadoff and Soriano somewhere else.  If it's the case that Soriano would produce even more runs lower in the order and Roberts would produce the same runs, then it probably makes more sense to move Soriano down.

Of course, as has been said numerous times by numerous people, this discussion is moot because it doesn't really matter what we think makes sense.  It only matters what Lou thinks makes sense.

by SouthernCub on Jan 11, 2008 9:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because Soriano is a terrible #2 hitter...
He has no plate discipline.  He doesn't hit the ball to the right side, meaning he can't easily advance runners from 1st (or 2nd) to 3rd.  he doesn't get on base.  And by hitting third, you reduce the desire to have him run (don't want him getting caught in front of Lee and Ramirez.

by SouthernCub on Jan 10, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

To quote you...
he doesn't get on base.

Which part of that means he's only suited to lead off and not hit anywhere else?  Of course we all are aware that the single most important thing a lead off hitter can do is get on base.  It's more important in the lead off spot than anywhere else in the lineup.  So again, how does what you're saying mean that Soriano should only lead off?

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Cwyers where ARE YOU
For the last couple weeks people have been posting Sorianos splits in different spots in the order.  He does the most damage in the 1 hole.  We get it, you dont agree.  Until YOU can post some data opposed to that why dont you drop it?

Soriano is in fact, inbedded in stats, a better player hitting FIRST

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs are in fact
a better team when Soriano ISN'T hitting first.

I guess that's what I care about, not whether Soriano get's his 40/40 or not.  And the stats backing this up have been posted in another thread.  The forest or the trees, take your pick.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wheres the proof to back that up?
As of now........without Sori hitting 1, who does? Theriot?
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course
my whole argument is based on whether we get a competent lead off hitter like Roberts or Figgins.  I can't see how we'd be a better team with Theriot hitting first.  The proof was, essentially, no version of our (computer simulated) lineup scored more runs with Soriano hitting first than versions with him hitting 3rd/5th.  In fact we are best when he hits 5th, and then 3rd respectively.  iirc Soriano hitting first didn't even make it into the top 20 lineups.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't wait for the first reporter
to question Lou about the computer models for his lineups.  I'm sure his answer will be priceless.  

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I trust a manager with baseball experience
....more than a computer program written probably by some nerdy college kid who has never played baseball.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So then
you were in favor of re-upping Dusty last year?  He's got all kinds of experience, he must be AWESOME!

What's the old saying about practice only makes perfect if it's perfect practice?  Experience is great and necessary, but not all experience is beneficial.  Using a nerdy computer model can help make experience beneficial if it isn't ignored.

I'm not asking for Lou to give up control of the team to Deep Blue.  All I'm saying is that there is some truth to what the computer says, otherwise why would we have been discussion the ZIPS projections so much yesterday?  I just want people to pay a little more attention to them and not so much worry about if Soriano doesn't get his Frosted Flakes in the morning he might decide not to play.  Computers can be right too, and Soriano is a big boy, he can adapt.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

IF so...
...why doesnt Hendry just sit in the dugout and plug the pitchers into the computer and have the computers write out the lineup....youd save millions on a coach.....

Computer or Dusty? I take Dusty.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Change the title of that post to
The Cubs are in MY OPINION.....

then I dont have a problem.  Dont state your opinion as fact Mr. Bernstein

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

But
the formulas say the Cubs are better without Soriano in leadoff.  Lou will be sitting in the dugout during the games working out the formulas for all his decisions. </sarcasm>

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 4:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Lol
I think we've found the achillies heel to my argument.  Lou isn't stupid though, you can bet he's at least looking at this stuff right now even if he's not completely sold on it.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Now you get to my point
I don't see Piniella as someone completely set in the old ways but he does follow some traditions.  How many times did people question his bringing in Eyre or Ohman to face a lefty last season.  

As for the lineup, I really don't see Lee as his #2 hitter.  Then I really, really expect that he will split Fukudome and Roberts.  Why is the Cubs focus on a lefty infielder?  Because Lou wants to balance the lineup.  Based on that he won't stick two of them together at the top.    
 

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually
do the research or at least run through some old threads and you'll see it's not just my opinion.  Those new-fangled computer thingies agree with me too.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We've been over all of this ad nauseum...
...and the computer models DO show you scoring more runs if you replace Soriano with Fukudome or Lee in the leadoff spot. Those same computer projections had Roberts typically batting around seventh in the Cubs lineup. This is not as cut and dried as you're making it.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And....
...sorry but I cannot trust a system that has Fuku in it.  Hes never played in the majors.

Im sure they are good but not close to perfect.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's nothing particularly special...
...about having played in the majors. Fukudome at this point is comparable to a top prospect - we're not talking about a beer league here.

Computer projections of hitting are pretty good these days - you're talking between a 65-75% accuracy out of them. You're right that rookies are harder to project than established veterans, but not by THAT much.

The larger point is that major leaguers aren't sure things, either - players get injured, they fall off, they have career years. There's only so much faith I put in the projections, either, but that doesn't mean they aren't useful tools in evaluating strategies and player acquisitions.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 4:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The projections are fun..
....it lets you somewhat imagine and dream about the future.
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Small sample size, but...
... Soriano started nine games last year in which he did not hit leadoff: seven in May in which he hit third, and two in July in which he hit fifth.

The Cubs were 4-5 in those games. They were 69-56 in all other games Soriano started.

In those nine games, Soriano went 5-for-36, with 1 double, 1 triple and 1 RBI; 3 walks and 9 strikeouts.

Yes, I know, small sample size and all that. But that's consistent with how he has hit other times when he's moved down in the lineup. While the computer models may show the Cubs a better team when Soriano hits elsewhere, the computer models do not take into account the fact that Soriano is a sucky hitter when he doesn't hit leadoff, for whatever psychological reason.

The Cubs are better off with Soriano leading off. It's really just that simple.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 4:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Since I "made" most of those models...
...I can tell you that Soriano's reduced production outside of the leadoff spot was included - I used his career splits and used that to adjust his CHONE projections accordingly. You still get a minor improvement that way if you bat Fukudome and Lee ahead of Soriano, but at that point the margin of error in the CHONE projections probably outstrips the size of the benefit we were seeing.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 5:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't forget the Dr. Lou factor
The one intangible (there's that word again) that hasn't been mentioned much is Lou's ability to get inside a player's head.  

Yes, Soriano is a sucky hitter when he doesn't hit leadoff - I think most of us will agree to that.  But what if he wasn't?  What if Soriano did hit up to his capabilities from say the 4 or 5 hole?  Assuming it's guys like Roberts, Lee, and Dome ahead of him in the order, Iit's safe to say his RBIs would increase a good chunk, isn't it?  And wouldn't this be good for the Cubs?

So yes, based on what's happened in the past, Soriano hitting anywhere but leadoff is a bad idea.  But I'm not here to talk about the past (sorry - couldn't resist).  But IF the Cubs get Roberts, then at least we have a legitimate alternative at leadoff.  And IF Lou can get inside of Soriano's head, spend some quality one-on-one time with him during spring training, maybe he can get Soriano to understand that the Cubs could be better with him hitting lower in the order.

Look - this isn't like Steve Sax, Rick Ankiel, and that catcher (the name escapes me at the moment) who couldn't make routine throws.  Those are real psychological problems that are probably well beyond Dr. Lou's reach.  But batting farther down in the order shouldn't be an insurmountable problem.  And if it would benefit the team, I gotta believe it's at least on Lou's radar to explore it during spring training.  I think he gave it a trial run last season, but quickly pulled the plug, wisely realizing that mid-season usually isn't the best time to be experimenting.

First things first - all this back-n-forth banter is pointless (though enjoyable) until there's a viable alternative to Soriano leading off, i.e. Cubs trade for Roberts.  Assuming that happens, then it's up to Lou - is this something he wants to tackle or not.  He's got to be thinking about it, and my guess is he will work with Soriano and see how it goes.

If it works out, I think we can all imagine what that could mean over the course of the season (and post-season).  And if it doesn't, then we're certainly no worse than last year.  We've already added Dome to the lineup.  And even if it's not leadoff, I'm sure we can find a productive spot for a hitter like Roberts in the lineup.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 10, 2008 8:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are looking for...
....Chuck Knoblauch
"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 8:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OMG - Life imitating art
I just realized where I got the catcher not making routine throws from - I think it was Major League II.  Man, I gots to get me some sleep...

Good call on Knoblauch.  And for all you old-timers out there, Steve Blass might have been the first to gain notoriety for throwing malfunctions.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 10, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I saw Blass' last major league game
It was at Wrigley Field on April 17, 1974. That was a windy, warm April day when George Mitterwald (nursing a hangover, I learned later) hit three HR and drove in 8 runs (including one off Blass). The Cubs won 18-9 (18-4 lead going into the 9th).

Blass had absolutely nothing. He threw the last five innings, gave up nine hits and seven walks, and clearly had no idea how to find the strike zone. Sad, really, for a guy who only two years earlier had won 19 games and finished 2nd in Cy Young voting.

Oh, and the catcher you were thinking of? Mackey Sasser.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops, mistyped.
Blass gave up only 5 hits, not 9. Four of them (two doubles, two HR) were extra-base hits.

Get a load of the Cubs' pitching line -- Burt Hooton threw a 16-hit, nine-run (five earned) complete game.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 10, 2008 10:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mackey Sasser
was the catcher.  Sax had issues before Knoblauch.

And, well said.

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 10, 2008 10:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What was cut and dried
was that nowhere does Soriano show up at the top of the lineup in the "good" lineups.  Move DLee and Dome to 8th and 9th and Soriano STILL isn't going to be the best option for leadoff hitter.  I know and understand what you're saying but for the life of me can't figure out the resistance from you and others to moving Sori out of 1st.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 10, 2008 4:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My biggest resistance...
....along with ALs is that it most likely is not going to happen.  I also like the instant offense he provides.

If he moves out of the 1 spot, Ill be OKAY.  I would prefer it not be to the 5 spot where he will most likely have a rookie in Soto hitting behind him.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano either provides instant offense
or an instanct K, and that's not want you want day in day out at leadoff.

I know we have been through this over and over, and I have stated my case for Soriano to move down and tried to explain in rational terms why.

When it is all said and done, let's just see what Lou does if they get Roberts.  I will predict, Soriano may start the season at leadoff, but he will end up hitting in another spot the majority of the games.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 10, 2008 6:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, if you go ahead and ignore...
...his very good doubles hitting and his high batting average and his mediocre but still existant 30 walks, yeah, all he provides is a K or a HR.

And if it's strikeouts that bother you... well, then by all means leave him leading off. Why? Well, the main difference between a strikeout and an out on a ball in play (other than the double play opportunity) is the ability of an out on a ball in play to advance the runner. By letting Soriano bat with less runners on in front of him, you minimize the negative impact of his strikeouts.

Strikeouts don't really bother me, so that doesn't really matter to me. If it matters to you, there you go.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 10, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Strikeouts don't really matter to you?
Awesome. Let me guess, because you'd rather have him strikeout than hit into a DP?

 You're reasoning for Soriano hitting lead off is because you'd rather him strike out at the top of the order as opposed to in the middle of the order, right? You'd rather him hit HR's with nobody on, correct?

 OBP means nothing to you? Working counts and being a threat to steal with the middle of the order up doesn't mean anything to you?

 That's what I'd look forward to seeing with Roberts if he becomes a Cub and inevitibly leads off: Working a long AB and even if he made an out, it took the pitcher 9 or 10 pitches to retire him. If he got on, the pitcher is in the stretch, where pitchers aren't as comftorable and have him throw over there 3 or 4 times and slowly be more cautious of Roberts than the hitter and grooves one for one of our studs in the middle of the order. Someone like Soriano.

 Another thing to think about if Soriano hit 3rd, is he'd be in a spot where he'd see more fastballs. Eveyone knows Soriano's weakness is staying off the low and away slider or anything off speed and down.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 10, 2008 9:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This is where we disagree
Soriano's strength as a hitter is his slugging ability.  His weakness is his lower OBP.

Maybe I am making this too easy, but I like to have the guys with the high OBP, speed and lower slugging ability hit at the top and the guys with the high slugging, hit in the middle.

In the end, this is exactly what I think Lou will do because the lineup will present greater challenges to opposing pitchers.

I respect everyone's opinion and mine is pretty clear, let's just see how things develop.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 10, 2008 11:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano has done well in the past ...
hitting 4th or 5th. Here are his numbers before last year doing so:

3rd:   630 AB, .260/.310/.452,   92 RBI
5th:   583 AB, .268/.312/.513,  107 RBI

His average is lower than when he hits first but not his RBI. So it is not a given that he cannot bat lower and be effective. The important thing is to get a true leadoff man if you are going to move him down in the batting order.

(I'm with you, BTW, MPH73.)

by Fraggin Judge on Jan 11, 2008 6:05 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If he's gonna hit 30+HRs
Wouldn't you rather him do it from the middle of the order, with guys on base?

Soriano has it in his head, that he'll see more fastballs if he hits in the leadoff spot. I say that's bunk. Pitchers will pitch to him the same, regardless of where he is in the order. It's up to him to be patient and put them in a count where a fastball is predictable.

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 11, 2008 8:57 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bad idea
If you want to take advantage of Roberts speed you occasionally want the #2 guy to take a pitch or hit to the right side.  I just don't see Soriano doing that effectively.  That's also part of the reason I don't like Lee in the #2 spot.  Let him swing away.  

by rlpete on Jan 10, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What happened to Soriano in CF?
I have to admit, I was still recovering from my disillusionment with the franchise following the Dusty Baker years and paid little attention to baseball last year.  To me, Soriano seemed to be an adequate enough fit for CF, especially in the Friendly Confines.  Was his experience there disaster enough to rule out a return next year?  How much did his injury play into his move back to LF?

by snley on Jan 10, 2008 3:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Guess you didn't watch Cubs baseball
last April

Soriano in CF = not good.
Soriano in LF = still not good, but better than CF

The man either doesn't know where the wall is, is deathly afraid of the wall, or doesn't give a crap enough to make a play at the wall.  

On the plus side, he's got a cannon for an arm. But, he's got to charge those hoppers in order to throw anyone out. He muffed quite a few of them with an opportunity to throw out a runner. But, in a somewhat ironic twist, some runners decided to try and take an extra base because Soriano muffed a hopper... then he threw them out. :)

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I slightly disagree...
...I remember a few times where Sori fielded the ball off the wall and still threw a rocket to nail a runner trying to stretch it into a double.  He gains strenght while charging the ball just like everyone else but his arm is strong without it as well.

scared of the wall?  i agree

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I was referring to when a LF has to
to come in and charge a sharp grounder/slap shot/low sinking liner.

He muffed a handful of those with runners on base. I know, I sit in 209.

I'd imagine that's why they finally moved him to the OF from 2B... he's not a very good fielder.

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 10, 2008 4:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Gotcha
...he did muff those, it was probably because his heart rate got up because he was pretty sure he was about to gun someone.

The new outfield should help a little.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 10, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch!
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 11, 2008 9:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Bleed Cubbie Blue, the Chicago Cubs blog for the SB Nation, created on February 9, 2005 by Al Yellon
Start posting about the Cubs »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

66103_small
The Ordinary Wizarding Levels of Milton Bradley & the 2009 Chicago Cubs
Chicagocubs1914_small
OT: Big-Ten, Vista-Demolition, Bad-News-Bears, Anything-Goes-on-a-Weekend Game Thread
Jake_fox_small
Cubs Should Go After Rich Hill
Chicagocubs1914_small
Last Out to First Pitch – The 2009-10 Offseason IT'S HAPPENING!!!??? Contest
Small
More From the Cubs in Winter Ball

Recent FanPosts

Small
JT20 Dynasty League
Dscn2381_small
The Only CF That Fits for 2010
Small
Bradley For Millwood?
Fukudome_bleachers_small
The Top 10 Cubs Games of 2009
Sandberg94home_small
An argument for Mike Cameron
P272649reg_small
OT: How will the Big Ten wind up and who goes where?
Small
Should we trade him, or should we not?
Madduxflag_small
Starlin Castro Vitters etc LIVE Sat night

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Gomez to drink your Brew, Hardy to eat your Twinkie
BP interviews Sam Fuld. Great read!
Who was the best MLB player born on your birthday?
Gary Matthews Jr.

Recent FanShots

Marlon Byrd to the Cubs??
Rumorville
Should Cubs pursue another lefty Cardinals CF
Job Opening with the Cubs
Cubs trying hard to trade Bradley
Victor Zambrano's mother kidnapped in Venezuela
Cubs GM Jim Hendry says Milton Bradley may be back in 2010, and called the outfielder's '09 season a "major hiccup"
Bradley 3 Way-Trade????
This ought to end any MB for Wells talk...
The incongruity of our perceptions and probabilities

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

It Is Only...

Cubs By The Numbers

Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.

Click here to order your copy, available now!

SPONSORS

Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges

Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: Cubs Convention 2010
Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: General 2009 Ticket Exchange
Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: September 29-October 4 Homestand

Managing Editor

Yelloncard_small Al

Editorial Cartoonist

Toonmike_small toonmike

Contributors

Dsc_0139_small holy mackerel

100px-boisehawkscaplogo_small Josh77

Small shawndgoldman