Wednesday Morning Headlines
As befits a holiday week, there's ... just ... not ... that ... much ... going ... on.
So I'm going to post just two headlines here, and let you have at them.
- Today's ESPN.com debate on Hall of Fame worthiness is between Larry Stone and Phil Rogers on the merits of Jim Rice. My vote on Rice: No. Rice had a fine rookie season (he would have won the ROY in any other year; he lost it to his teammate Fred Lynn), and after that, I would judge that he had six seasons that could be called "HoF-dominant". His career numbers aren't as good as Andre Dawson's (more walks, but fewer HR, steals, runs, hits, RBI, and wasn't as good a defender - 25% of his career games were as DH), and after age 33 he had three mediocre years and then retired. (As usual, Rogers gets the facts wrong, saying Rice retired at 34 -- he was actually 36 in 1989, his final season.)
- The Cubs official website actually wasted an entire page on this Carrie Muskat profile of Shawon Dunston and what he might expect from his first year on the Hall of Fame ballot. If you believe the article, most of his credentials rest on the "Shawon-o-Meter", the sign held up in the bleachers showing his batting average. He'll need 5% of the vote to even stay on the ballot past this year. Dunston was a popular player, but despite his lengthy 18-season career, not a very good one -- his lifetime OBA (.296) resembles Neifi Perez' (.297). Oh, and Carrie? It's the Smithsonian Institution, not "Smithsonian Institute", and the Shawon-o-Meter isn't "enshrined" there, it's in its archives; here's a little more information from one of the actual creators of the Shawon-o-Meter, which I found in about 30 seconds of googling. Amazing what you can do when you do a little bit of research before you write.
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60 comments
Comments
Dunston in the HOF...
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 2, 2008 11:02 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Did not read the column.
I still cringe at the number of innings he ran the Cubs out of during his career.
by MN exile on Jan 2, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or...
by Al on Jan 2, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How about
by gary varsho on Jan 2, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A charter member of the Rally Killers Hall of Fame
I was amazed that it was his Cub record for walk-off homers that Sosa broke to take the all-time team lead. I don't remember him ever hitting a game winner. I remember Banks, Williams, Hickman, Hundley... Jose Arcia for godssakes! but never Santo. And I wasted an amazing amount of time watching the Cubs when I was little.
by TR on Jan 2, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
OK, Joe Morgan fan...
Be sure to submit your findings to the Veterans Committee before Santo's name comes up for a vote next year. If ever Santo faded late in a game, it might not of had anything to do with his diabetic condition? But just go on bashing him.
Again, I don't recall a history of choking by Santo...but there clearly must be a group of people trying to keep him out of the HOF that do. I am sure you can submit your video library to them.
by LAcarl519 on Jan 2, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This crap again?
Pick a few random HOF 3B and compare (via Retrosheet)
Robinson, Brett, Schmidt, Boggs--all had bigger drop-offs with RISP. Were they all rally-killers too?
by bison on Jan 2, 2008 6:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know anyone my age who
He was my favorite player and I think he should be in the Hall of Fame. Just sharing a memory of his uncanny ability to break our hearts late in games.
by TR on Jan 3, 2008 1:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Memory can be tricky.
Santo, career, close and late: .281/.373/.483
Santo, career, 2 outs and RISP: .271/.409/.465
Santo, career, 9th inning: .272/.365/.516
Santo, career, 7th-9th: .279/.370/.480
Santo, career, tied game: .270/.354/.441
I can go on if need be. The point is that Santo performed right around his career norms (maybe even a touch better) in close and late game situations.
by cwyers on Jan 3, 2008 11:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Statistics can be tricky.
But you're too young to have seen him play. Frankly, I recall many situations like TR is describing myself, situations when if he could have just gotten a hit the Cubs might have won a game, or a series, or...
Well, you get the idea. Statistics can tell you a lot, but they can't tell you everything. Do I have specific games to list? No, I don't. I just have the memories of a 13-year-old kid whose heart was broken too many times.
I trust you see the difference.
by Al on Jan 3, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your thoughts Al
It sort of reminds me of a lot of the stats we saw in 07. The numbers show the team did fairly well in clutch situations, but your eyes told you something a bit different. A lot of it goes drilling down further in the situations a hitter failed or succeeded, and the stats just can't do that.
by MPH73 on Jan 3, 2008 11:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't doubt in the least...
I have no doubt that those failures are more meaningful emotionally in late innings and close games. But I think it's patently unfair to compare Dunston and Santo as "rally-killers" without some sort of context here. (Although, to be fair to Dunston, it's not like he suddenly got worse at the plate in late, clutch situations either. Insert your own wisecrack here about how that would be hard to do if you're Shawon Dunston.)
by cwyers on Jan 3, 2008 12:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I understand exactly what you're saying.
by Al on Jan 3, 2008 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Valid point
by MPH73 on Jan 3, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Never saw Santo
by gary varsho on Jan 2, 2008 7:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Shawon was...
by 100yearsofineptitude on Jan 2, 2008 10:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is Carrie trying to...
He threw the ball hard to the other infielders, and sometimes to the Vendors working the box seats down the 1B line, LOL....
I loved Dunston, he was one of my favorite Cubs, but let's not distort/corrupt my memory of his career by claiming that he might get that call. Trust me, the calls that he gets on the 8th are far more likely to be telemarketers than that HOF.
by DudeVf11 on Jan 2, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not so sure...
His career numbers aren't as good as Andre Dawson's
Not so sure that Rice's career numbers are not as good. Dawson has a career OPS of 119, and a career line of .279/.323/.482.
Rice has a career OPS+ of 128, and a career line of .298/.352/.502.
Average lines:
Rice: .298/.352/.502, 30 HR, 113 RBI, 97 R, 4 SB, 52 BB
Dawson: .279/.323/.482, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 85 R, 19 SB, 36 BB
Dawson had better speed and better defense. But Rice appears to be the better hitter, with Dawson having more longevity.
by big_lowitzki on Jan 2, 2008 11:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
If you are going to make that argument
Another decent way may be take their 10 best years and compare those.
mlb.com's historical stats page is balking on me (could be firefox) or else I would start a little of it.
by JonH on Jan 2, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rice was still the better hitter...
Rice: 1874 G, 7464 AB, 1164 R, 2257 H, 343 2B, 73 3B, 363 HR, 1338 RBI, 56 SB, .302/.355/.514
Dawson: 1847 G, 7129 AB, 1042 R, 2032 H, 363 2B, 74 3B, 333 HR, 1191 RBI, 254 SB, .285/.328/.497
Or for simplicity, here is the average season:
Rice: 144 G, 574 AB, 89.5 R, 174 H, 26 2B, 6 3B, 28 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .302/.355/.514
Dawson: 142 G, 548 AB, 80 R, 156 H, 28 2B, 6 3B, 26 HR, 92 RBI, 20 SB, .285/.328/.497
Rice was the better hitter, Dawson better on the basepaths and in the field. All in all, I'd say that Dawson was the better player given longevity (Dawson had 4 additional productive years), speed, and defense. Though I'm not sure I'd vote either player into the Hall of Fame. That pains me to say as Dawson was my favorite player growing up.
by SouthernCub on Jan 2, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you
Jim Rice spent the majority of his prime years batting in lineups with perenial MVP candidates like Cecil Cooper, Dwight Evans, Fred Lynn, Carl Yaztremski, Carlton Fisk, Wade Boggs, Bill Buckner, and Mike Greenwell. Most of the Red Sox line-ups during Rice's years included 5 or 6 of these guys in the order along with Rice. With Fisk, Boggs, and Yaz already in the Hall, and Cooper and Evans (in my opinion) being better players - it's safe to say Jim Rice had a lot of protection.
Dawson was surrounded with Tony Perez, Gary Carter, Ellis Valentine, Larry Parrish, Warren Cromartie, Tim Raines, Al Oliver, Tim Wallach, Terry Francona, Hubie Brooks, Ryne Sandberg, Mark Grace, and Dwight Smith. Of those players, only Raines, Sandberg, and Carter (two HOFers and another who may be very soon) were members of Dawson's line-up that finished ahead of him in OPS more than once.
Take out Ryno, Rock, and the Kid - then take out Boggs, Pudge, and Dewey Evans (probably the three most productive hitters in each guy's career line-ups) - Rice is still protected by Lynn, Buckner, Cooper, Yaz, and Greenwell - while Hawk is surrounded by a few seasons of Al Oliver and a few of Tony Perez (but not at the same time). There's no arguing that both guy's probably made the other hitters around them better and more productive, but Rice had far superior teammates aiding him in the same way.
None of this is to say that Jim Rice is or isn't Hall of Fame worthy, I'm firmly planted on the fence on that one, but I'm arguing that Andre Dawson was a superior player both in his prime and in long term. The numbers listed for thier average prime season are very close, with Dawson obviously getting the nod in the speed and defense categories and Rice topping him with most offensive numbers. However, I don't think that those offensive numbers accurately reflect the men who put them up. It's hard to say Rice didn't benefit from playing 6 years sandwiched in beween Yaz, Fisk, Evans, and Lynn. Throw in Cecil Cooper for a few seasons, then finish up your career surrounded by Buckner, Boggs, Greenwell, Don Baylor, and Rich Gedman - and you've got yourself a pretty cushy line-up spot. By no means am I saying that anyone could have put up Rice's numbers in that spot - but a star player suddenly looks like a super-star when he's got the entire MVP ballot of the late '70s/early '80s hitting around him.
Dawson, on the other hand, did not play 81 games a year in the cozy dimensions of Fenway Park. It doesn't take much of an imagination to see the Hawk putting three or four extra long balls down that 302 foot right field line. What amounted to pop outs on the Olympic Stadium warning track suddenly become three-run bombs in Boston (look what happened when Dawson, already aging, moved from Montreal to Wrigley). Add into that the line-up protection Rice got and you start to seperate. In that line-up, in that park, Dawson's power numbers jump (just like they did in 1987). I'm not saying he hits 49 every year, but add 3-5 more dingers and 10-12 more ribbies, 10-15 more points on the batting average for the first 10 years of his career - with those numbers + Andre's throwing arm, fielding, and speed and he's a lock for the Hall and the difference between him and Rice is obvious.
I don't mean to take anything away from Jim Rice, he was a great player, but I firmly believe Andre Dawson was several notches above.
Completely aside of the Dawson vs. Rice argument... I don't like to play the "could have been" or "what if" game, but playing in a more power friendly park, like Jim Rice did, Andre Dawon might have tacked on 3-5 more homers a year in his first 10 season. That puts him at around 478 long balls. Without the beating Montreal's turf took on his knees, he certainly could have hit 2-3 more a year for his last 10 seasons, putting him over 500 where we no longer have is Dawson Hall worthy/is Dawson better than Rice discussions.
by HectorVillanueva on Jan 2, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dawson
Of course, everyone knows the ball was juiced in 1987. But that doesn't take away what Dawson did that year.
by danimal15 on Jan 2, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Muskat
Any Jessica Alba fans? Pretty funny story here:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/01/off-field-fleeces-gofer-hits-jackpot-lands-alba/
by ET90210 on Jan 2, 2008 11:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Did you
by pageian on Jan 2, 2008 2:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Rice
Is it just me or is everyone else waiting for some real Cubs news to happen. Things seem like they've been at a snails pace since the 'Dome signed. Al, the top 100 Cubs were made for days like this!
by mrcubsfan on Jan 2, 2008 2:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Amen, brother!
Now, not to say that Al doesn't deserve an offseason break (he clearly does), but here's an idea for a regular feature. We have about 56 days until spring training....how about Al's Top 50 Cubs Games I've (Al, not me) Attended? Maybe impossibly hard to quantify in the lower levels, but I'm sure the Top 10-15 would be pretty spectacular....and with all of the fans here, I'm sure others would have memories of watching those same games (live or on TV)....
Just a thought to tide us over until the Twins deal us Johan Santana....
by Chadnudj on Jan 2, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
AAAAAAmen to Santana
by mrcubsfan on Jan 2, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I had some ideas...
Maybe next offseason we can do this -- a "top 50 Cub games of all time"? Let me work on this later in the winter and early in the season.
by Al on Jan 2, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
now you got me thinking...
This has the makings of a fun project. Thanks Al and Chadnudj for giving me good food for thought during these cold months.
by ballhawk on Jan 3, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunno about 50...
by Al on Jan 3, 2008 11:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I wasn't really thinking of...
I was thinking this to be more of a personal hobby research project and was just thanking you guys for planting the seed. But if I do get around to doing this, and it turns out to be something of substance, I'll certainly share with you and see if it's BCB worthy.
by ballhawk on Jan 3, 2008 5:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Please do.
by Al on Jan 3, 2008 6:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh - and Derek Jeter, too...
by TheEman on Jan 2, 2008 5:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunston
Ground ball to short, heads up in the 100's.
The Shawon O Meter was great but the players meh........1st round 1st pick was a stretch but hall of famer NEVER, this will be his only year on the ballot.
by Hammer on Jan 2, 2008 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If you.....
by Hammer on Jan 2, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunston's problem
;)
by pageian on Jan 2, 2008 2:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yummy.
by gary varsho on Jan 2, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
Also, it occurred to me that Shawon played for Dusty in SF for awhile, so he probably did hit lead off quite a bit. Yikes!
I like Shawon and I actually hope he gets at least one vote for the HOF, just so he can say he got one, being an ex-Cub and all. But man that .obp is atrocious. Good thing I didn't care about that back then.
by pageian on Jan 2, 2008 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A bit off topic
"The naming rights to the Mets' new Citi Field in New York garnered a deal of $20 million per year for 20 years (that's $400 million). Barclay's bought the rights to the new home for the National Basketball Association Nets for the same fee."
Considering Wrigley has more brand awareness than the above, we might be looking at $30MM a year.
by TheEman on Jan 2, 2008 2:44 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
by pageian on Jan 2, 2008 8:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you know that saying - every man has his price?
I am pretty much in the purist camp (day baseball, kill the DH, dump selig, etc.) so I basically abhor the notion of naming rights for Wrigley Field, but I have to say...
If naming rights brings in $20M+ a year AND most if not all of that goes into payroll, then instead of dwelling on the negativity of seeing corporate logos slapped all over the place and seeing/hearing it in the media, I could instead imagine Johan Santana on the mound for the next 6-7 years...
Hmm... maybe I could be convinced.
by ballhawk on Jan 3, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
CARRIE MUSKAT MUST GO!
In Muskat world - let's go to Microsoft Field after we've enjoyed a "Micro-brew" beer at the Computer Bear Bar in Microsoftville.
Even worse, since she's a generic MLB "beat reporter" i found articles she's written for the Brewers! Let's inundate Muskat's email with "you should be fired" messages until she quits.
by BlueDonnellys on Jan 2, 2008 3:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mailbag
by Cub Fan in Card Country on Jan 2, 2008 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ends don't justify means
Of course, if they did it, she'd write that it was a brilliant decision. Interestingly, other MLB.com beat writers don't seem to have this same blind devotion to the teams they cover.
by Shanghai Badger on Jan 3, 2008 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As a former journalist
On a story being written under tight deadlines -for instance a game recap - I think a mistake like that is excusable, as long as it doesn't happen all the time. But for a columnist to make it, when he's got all day to write the damn thing and every baseball reference he needs available to him online, I have trouble with it.
Now maybe I'm being too harsh. I made stupid mistakes sometimes, as well (I once spelled a doctor's name wrong in the Wall Street Journal - he wasn't too happy). Getting Rice's age wrong was less egregious. But still sloppy.
by danimal15 on Jan 2, 2008 4:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
agreed..between Rogers and Muskat
Rogers used to be a very good baseball columnist IMO...but he has totally fallen off the map in the last couple of years with his creativity, unique stories and most importantly for a columnist, opinions!!
by JB 23 on Jan 2, 2008 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Vasgersian...
DmL
by dmlichte on Jan 2, 2008 8:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
He and Chris Rose make quite a pair...
They actually make me miss ESPN.
by JB 23 on Jan 2, 2008 9:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He was a better Shortstop than you were!
2nd, No matter what you feel about Dunston, and I would agree that he has zero right to be in the Hall, he was a better player than anyone posting to this blog. So be as dismissive as you want he was a better player than any of you or me for that matter. So if you feel the need to make your antipathy personal you should take it home with you.
by bubbamike the one and only on Jan 2, 2008 9:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.
by Al on Jan 3, 2008 12:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So when you watch a baseball game
I don't get your point.
by rlpete on Jan 3, 2008 8:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
The original post makes no sense. Just because I'm not as good a baseball player as any one in the majors (or minors, or college, or most high school) doesn't mean I'm not capable of critiquing the quality of those player's play. I may not be able to match their abilities, but I can certainly tell who has more proficiency and who has less.
For a somewhat similar example, most baseball writers couldn't play baseball any better than any of us, yet they get to decide who gets in to the Hall of Fame.
by SouthernCub on Jan 3, 2008 9:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He IS better than me
by pageian on Jan 3, 2008 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait.....
by Jayo525 on Jan 2, 2008 9:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
loved Dunston
Goodness Carrie move on.
Hate this time of year no real baseball news, oh I am sorry the Jays signed Reed Johnson on a one year deal.
Go Cubs.
by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Jan 2, 2008 10:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Should have read
by TR on Jan 3, 2008 1:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Fukudome and Ichiro would work out together
Dome and Ichiro are using same facility for new year training now, at the Nagoya Stadium and it's gym.
http://www.sponichi.co.jp/baseball/news/2008/01/04/12.html
On Jan 3rd, Ichiro came into the gym 20 minutes after Dome left home to change diapers of his new baby, Hayato, and Ichiro worked hard on his batting practice.
Ichiro will have a day off tomorrow, the article says they might work together on some menus on tomorrow (Jan 5th JST).
They were teammates at Japan team for WBC 2006, and Ichiro was a good mentor for Dome since then. Dome definitely would like to get some consultation to play for Cubs, by this 7 years veteran of MLB.
Ichiro is a native boy and have a luxurious home in Toyoyama, a small satellite town of 13,998, and is very next to big city Nagoya (over 2 million people). He was a great Dragons fan when he was a kid, frequently visited old Nagoya Stadium (formerly home of Dragons) to watch games. One of his favorite Dragons' player was Ken Macha, former manager of Oakland A's, as he's got Macha's autograph on his glove.
by dragonsfanatic on Jan 3, 2008 6:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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