Phil Rogers Handicaps Trades, With Math! (Pt. 2)
He calls it a clarification. I call it a huhwhathuh?
When I wrote about this the first time, I tried to explain that it was just one way to evaluate the ebb and flow of talent, not to judge an off-season. ... The reality is there is no true way to project performance, no matter how many incredibly smart people spend a lot of time trying. Yes, you'd rather have added Miguel Cabrera than Milton Bradley. But in baseball you can't rule out Bradley having a better year than Cabrera (raise your hand if you knew 102 players would drive in more runs than Alfonso Soriano last year, including Brandon Phillips, Bengie Molina, Mark Ellis, Jack Cust, Curtis Granderson and Mark DeRosa). By looking only at the addition and subtraction of proven players, you can get a decent reading on a team's depth....
This time around, it's easy to get excited about the Cubs adding Kosuke Fukudome, but it shouldn't be forgotten that they have subtracted Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Jason Kendall, who did make contributions in 2007.
It seems to me the plus-minus does a decent job of showing the White Sox have improved more than the Cubs, even while missing out on Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera (they lose only Jon Garland among their most significant players and add Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel). I'd also say it accurately suggests a long season for St. Louis, which has lost Jim Edmonds, Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells while adding no one more significant than Cesar Izturis, who wasn't a regular in 2007.
URK!
Ok, Phil, if you just want to look at team depth - why don't you, I don't know, look at team depth? Just get a depth chart out and see out deep each team is.
It's not just that the system equates Alex Rodriguez and David Eckstein equally -- although that enough makes the system close to worthless. It's that it absolutely fails to take into account any sort of marginal value, just absolute value.
The fact is that no matter what, a ballclub is going to have 25 players on its active roster. Those players are coming from somewhere. Players who are being added displace other players. Players who leave are replaced somehow.
And let me just say - losing Floyd, Jones and Kendall helps this team. We have replacements for them who are better - in the case of Kendall specifically MUCH better. And I don't think it's obvious at all that the Sox have improved more than the Cubs. Adding Dotel and Linebrink are questionable moves at best. Nobody knows if Alexei Ramirez is ready to produce at the majors. (Cuba being right around A-ball level.)
This annoys me way too mucn, and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir right now.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Please Mr. Rodgers...
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 11:55 AM CST 0 recs
Makes you wonder....
by N Oakley on Jan 23, 2008 12:06 PM CST 0 recs
Oh, lordy.
All he did was dig himself a deeper hole. There's no way to adequately explain to Phil how and why he's just plain wrong.
As long as WE know, I think that's OK. We can just post stuff like this and laugh about it, because that's all you can do about something this ... well, ignorant.
How someone can get paid the money he does for writing this drivel, I'll never know.
by Al on Jan 23, 2008 12:07 PM CST 0 recs
The sad part?
by cwyers on
Jan 23, 2008 12:11 PM CST
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Yeah, that is sad.
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 12:13 PM CST
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I should add that I see no reason...
Which, can I say something here? Those people kinda scare me.
by cwyers on
Jan 23, 2008 12:53 PM CST
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Although...
Phil's "system" is meaningless. But I will ask him if he'll exchange a $20 bill for a $1 bill if I see him around. He'd be even then, right?
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 12:54 PM CST
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I actually...
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 12:58 PM CST
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LOL
Dan
by dtpollitt on
Jan 23, 2008 2:26 PM CST
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I would...
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 3:06 PM CST
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I think its funnier
How could a person actually write that and not get questioned about it? Now he is trying to justify it, its hilarious, Im in the wrong business
by Hammer on Jan 23, 2008 12:12 PM CST 0 recs
Actually...
That's an even swap, right Phil?
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 12:14 PM CST
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Have you met Phil, Al?
But as an outsider, anytime you mention Phil Rogers, there seems to be some hostility in your tone. Is there a personal story about Phil Rogers you'd like to share with all of us?
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 1:45 PM CST
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I don't see it
by pageian on
Jan 23, 2008 2:23 PM CST
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lol good point
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:50 PM CST
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LOL
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 2:56 PM CST
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Your analogy is close.
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 3:00 PM CST
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Glad I got my hand out of the way
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 3:04 PM CST
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When you compare Rogers
To make matters worse, he has been around longer than most and writes for the paper with the largest circulation. Could this be one of the many symptoms of why Tribune company has floundered for so long???
by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 12:13 PM CST 0 recs
I love this stuff
good laughs these days ?
Also lets take it a step further. Let's give Phil 10 nice shiny pennies for that old crumpled $20 bill.
by jessica on Jan 23, 2008 12:49 PM CST 0 recs
One big problem with Phil Roger's system...
Maybe we should come up with a +/- system for newspaper baseball writers. - TL
by timlacy on Jan 23, 2008 1:58 PM CST 0 recs
Ok.
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 2:07 PM CST
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dash of reality into your kool aid
I'll say 4.
Let's see....who else have the Cubs added....ummm, yeah, that's it. Oh, I almost forgot, Jon Lieber.
Ok, now who thinks Lilly will duplicate his career year of last year? Derosa? Soto will upgrade the Catching position. Theriot will be Theriot at SS. ARam will be ARam, if he doesn't get hurt, Lee will be Lee, Soriano just scares me, Pie is an absolute unknown. Jon Lieber could very well be the 4th starter on this team.
It always annoys me the arrogance of Cub fans being content. Content being the most lethal ingredient in the kool aid.
This team still has plenty of holes, but you would never know by reading this site, where holding on to average prospects for "the future" instead of using prospects to get players to help them win now, when the future is now, is the mentality.
Yeah, they're warmer and fuzzier than the past couple years, but are still not good enough to win the World Series and that annoys me even more.
by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:07 PM CST 0 recs
And yet...
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 2:13 PM CST
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You misunderstood me
They are not good enough to win the NL and get to the World Series.
THat's what annoys me. They are so GD close. Only 1 player away from being the best team in the NL and another move away from being a legitimate threat to win the World Series, but the majority of Cub fans want the Cubs to hold onto these "prospects" for the future, when the future is now. I'd trade the entire farm for another quality starter and a SS. I would finally for the first time in my life, legitimately think the Cubs had a chance to win the World Series.
As of today, I don't.
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:31 PM CST
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you didnt
They are OK for now, if they can make a big trade before July 31st, Id be OK with it.
by Hammer on
Jan 23, 2008 2:36 PM CST
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If we are...
Why are we doomed to fail at reaching/winning the WS? The "best team" doesn't always win it. Just ask the Detroit Tigers.
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 2:39 PM CST
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So
I fully realize the best team on paper doesn't always win, but that isn't going to stop me from still trying to be the best team.
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 2:42 PM CST
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You may be missing my point...
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 2:52 PM CST
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There's no roll of the dice in baseball
After that, the equation is pretty simple: Pitching.
The Cubs have a good enough team to make the playoffs, but not the Pitching to go beyond that.
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:58 PM CST
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Come on now
After that, the equation is pretty simple: Pitching.
That's clearly not always true. Just look at the 2006 Cardinals. They only had two pitchers remotely better than average, Suppan and Carpenter. Having a strong top 3 certainly plays a bigger factor in the postseason, but any team can take a best of 5 or best of 7 series. We all want the Cubs to field the "best" team possible, but the "best" players don't guarantee a WS victory - that's why they play the games.
Making the playoffs consistently, year after year, is really the only way to increase the odds of winning a World Series. Obviously, better players increase your chances of making it to the playoffs, but if you sell the farm to make a run at it today and fail, you also reduce your chances of even making it back for another shot in the future.
by false cognate on
Jan 23, 2008 5:03 PM CST
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LSA!
by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 5:14 PM CST
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Most teams aren't the CUbs
Last I checked,
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 7:11 PM CST
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Let me put it this way
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 2:59 PM CST
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The DBacks owned the Cubs in the playoffs
The Cubs added Fukudome, which I am stoked about, but it won't be enough. THe Cubs need another starter and SS if they want to close the gap on the DBacks.
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:45 PM CST
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Plus
by pageian on
Jan 23, 2008 2:31 PM CST
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Faith?
I've been a fan way too long, to have faith in the Cubs.
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:42 PM CST
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On that note...

by santoswoodenlegs on
Jan 23, 2008 2:45 PM CST
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You're the man Santos
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:49 PM CST
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I'm with you
Winning a weak division is all well and good, and I realize it gets you to the dance, but it is not a good strategy to rely on "lightning in a bottle" to get you through a couple playoff series if you don't have to. I also agree that many tend to be averse to the thought of trading prospects (when no one knows whether they will be good major league players) to solidify the chance to win now, when the opportunity is there for the taking.
With all this said, I do think Hendry will concentrate on going for it now, and trade several prospects to improve the clubs chances in the near term. IMHO, this is the right strategy, and considering the Cubs haven't won in forever, I don't see how you let this opportunity pass by worrying about prospects that may or may not be worth anything at the major league level.
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 2:38 PM CST
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I agree
It's planted in Hendry though, which scares me.
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 2:55 PM CST
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I have been a Hendry critic as well
- He has Piniella telling him what he wants
- He is trying to show new owners they need to keep him
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 3:03 PM CST
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I agree with both of you.
by Al on
Jan 23, 2008 3:07 PM CST
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The trade deadline
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 3:16 PM CST
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I sure hope its much sooner than that
The O's are doing the same thing with their best guys that the Twinkies are doing with Santana. Trying to milk anyone for the absolute maximum. The price will drop and when it does Hendry and Mr. McPhail should complete something very beneficial to both teams inside the next 3 weeks.
Boers and Bernstein's show yesterday were going nuts about why Hendry hasn't jumped on getting Lofton. They must have read my mind. It won't cost any players, he's better than Byrd IMHO and those players could be used in an O's trade.
The Baltimore Sun yesterday was talking about "Gallagher and a young OF" for Roberts in their main article in addition to McPhail deciding approx by the end of the month whether or not to deal both Roberts and Bedard. Seattle was again mentioned as the top suitor for Bedard.
by blackhawk24 on
Jan 24, 2008 5:54 AM CST
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They're back to the Gallagher thing again?
by Al on
Jan 24, 2008 9:37 AM CST
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Even if you ignore the evidence...
by cwyers on
Jan 24, 2008 9:49 AM CST
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I think you mean
Just another case of Boers and Bernstein being rude to callers.
BTW, to endorse The Score, I was the 68th texter last night and won Hawks tickets for tonight, if they are from the Score do you guys think the tickets will be on the glass?
by Hammer on
Jan 24, 2008 10:05 AM CST
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I've always been...
by timlacy on
Jan 23, 2008 3:53 PM CST
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Exactly.
by Fraggin Judge on
Jan 23, 2008 7:43 PM CST
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EDIT!!!!!!!
by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:08 PM CST 0 recs
That depends on their competition
IMO, they are probably about an 88-90 win club assuming the level of competition is the same as 07.
by MPH73 on
Jan 23, 2008 3:14 PM CST
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Well
Cardinals had to of gotten worse
Reds I think will be better
Brewers will be better
Astros I have no idea. Probably a little better.
Pirates will be equally as bad
by lemon20pie on
Jan 23, 2008 3:27 PM CST
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HAHAHAHA
I coulda told you that, he hits leadoff. I'm a 17 year old kid and even I know that if you hit leadoff in the NL you have very limited RBI opportunities, hence all of his solo shots.
Durrrrrr.
by zam on Jan 23, 2008 5:06 PM CST 0 recs
Shouldn't Phil Rogers
by Chanman25 on Jan 23, 2008 5:16 PM CST 0 recs
Having read both versions of
by gary varsho on Jan 23, 2008 7:55 PM CST 0 recs
Phil sounds like he would be a great fit...
by DudeVf11 on Jan 23, 2008 7:56 PM CST 0 recs
or manager of the Reds?
by Chanman25 on
Jan 23, 2008 8:46 PM CST
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Not sure where Jaret Wright went...
Confusion.
by Kinky Reggae on Jan 24, 2008 10:24 AM CST 0 recs
Jaret Wright is a Pirate.
by cwyers on
Jan 24, 2008 10:28 AM CST
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