Phil Rogers Handicaps Trades, With Math! (Pt. 2)

by cwyers on Jan 23, 2008 11:45 AM CST

He calls it a clarification. I call it a huhwhathuh?

When I wrote about this the first time, I tried to explain that it was just one way to evaluate the ebb and flow of talent, not to judge an off-season. ... The reality is there is no true way to project performance, no matter how many incredibly smart people spend a lot of time trying. Yes, you'd rather have added Miguel Cabrera than Milton Bradley. But in baseball you can't rule out Bradley having a better year than Cabrera (raise your hand if you knew 102 players would drive in more runs than Alfonso Soriano last year, including Brandon Phillips, Bengie Molina, Mark Ellis, Jack Cust, Curtis Granderson and Mark DeRosa). By looking only at the addition and subtraction of proven players, you can get a decent reading on a team's depth.

...

This time around, it's easy to get excited about the Cubs adding Kosuke Fukudome, but it shouldn't be forgotten that they have subtracted Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Jason Kendall, who did make contributions in 2007.

It seems to me the plus-minus does a decent job of showing the White Sox have improved more than the Cubs, even while missing out on Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera (they lose only Jon Garland among their most significant players and add Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel). I'd also say it accurately suggests a long season for St. Louis, which has lost Jim Edmonds, Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells while adding no one more significant than Cesar Izturis, who wasn't a regular in 2007.

URK!

Ok, Phil, if you just want to look at team depth - why don't you, I don't know, look at team depth? Just get a depth chart out and see out deep each team is.

It's not just that the system equates Alex Rodriguez and David Eckstein equally -- although that enough makes the system close to worthless. It's that it absolutely fails to take into account any sort of marginal value, just absolute value.

The fact is that no matter what, a ballclub is going to have 25 players on its active roster. Those players are coming from somewhere. Players who are being added displace other players. Players who leave are replaced somehow.

And let me just say - losing Floyd, Jones and Kendall helps this team. We have replacements for them who are better - in the case of Kendall specifically MUCH better. And I don't think it's obvious at all that the Sox have improved more than the Cubs. Adding Dotel and Linebrink are questionable moves at best. Nobody knows if Alexei Ramirez is ready to produce at the majors. (Cuba being right around A-ball level.)

This annoys me way too mucn, and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir right now.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Please Mr. Rodgers...

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 11:55 AM CST reply actions

Makes you wonder....

Facetiously intended, I wonder if Rogers gets a crisp $100 bill from the WS Chairman every time he writes a column touting the larger percentage off season upgrade on the southside versus the northside. Further, his defense if his "system" coincidentally occurs the day after the Sox ink another "plus" player in Dotel. I guess inking Dotel offsets losing Garland.

by N Oakley on Jan 23, 2008 12:06 PM CST reply actions

Oh, lordy.

Obviously, he either read the criticism we gave his original column here, or someone told him about it.

All he did was dig himself a deeper hole. There's no way to adequately explain to Phil how and why he's just plain wrong.

As long as WE know, I think that's OK. We can just post stuff like this and laugh about it, because that's all you can do about something this ... well, ignorant.

How someone can get paid the money he does for writing this drivel, I'll never know.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 12:07 PM CST reply actions

The sad part?

He's still better at it than Downey, Issacson and Morrissey. Better than at least Marriotti, too.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 23, 2008 12:11 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, that is sad.

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions

I should add that I see no reason...

...not to believe him when he says he's responding to the commenters on the Trib's website.

Which, can I say something here? Those people kinda scare me.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 23, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions

Although...

... the first comment there below Phil's "clarification" was essentially what you said here the first time.

Phil's "system" is meaningless. But I will ask him if he'll exchange a $20 bill for a $1 bill if I see him around. He'd be even then, right?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions

I actually...

... liked this comment on the Trib site:

If I were Phil Rogers, I would just mash the keyboard with a raw steak for 20 minutes, hit save, then email it to an editor to be put in the paper.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions

LOL

That is great stuff right there, invite that guy over to BCB, Al.

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Jan 23, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions

I would...

... but they don't seem to post email addresses over there, just names.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions

I think its funnier

.....that he is trying to justify his last column. One poster put it best, its like trading a $20 bill for 10 $1 bills. THAT IS NOT A PLUS 9.

How could a person actually write that and not get questioned about it? Now he is trying to justify it, its hilarious, Im in the wrong business

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 23, 2008 12:12 PM CST reply actions

Actually...

... given what Phil has written, we should, every single one of us, be able to go up to him if we see him at a ballpark, ask him for change for a $20 bill, and offer him a $1 bill in exchange.

That's an even swap, right Phil?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions

Have you met Phil, Al?

Im indifferent towards Phil, because I don't read his stuff, well because he's an idiot. Same thing goes for Moronotti, I simply don't read him.

But as an outsider, anytime you mention Phil Rogers, there seems to be some hostility in your tone. Is there a personal story about Phil Rogers you'd like to share with all of us?

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

I don't see it

I don't think Al or anyone else here for that matter treats Phil Rogers with any sort of personal contempt. Seems to me Rogers is getting the same treatment that he and many others like him have earned. Ever heard of Carrie Muskat? Phil's getting off lite.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 23, 2008 2:23 PM CST up reply actions

lol good point

I think most Cub fans hate Muskat more than they hate Pujols.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions

LOL

Wow, that's pretty serious. I doubt that, though.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions

Your analogy is close.

I equate most of what comes out of Muskat's pen to what comes out of poo-holes.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 3:00 PM CST up reply actions

Glad I got my hand out of the way

Before you hit that one off the tee,.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions

When you compare Rogers

to the handful of good baseball writers we have in this town, he doesn't even show up in the picture.

To make matters worse, he has been around longer than most and writes for the paper with the largest circulation. Could this be one of the many symptoms of why Tribune company has floundered for so long???

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 12:13 PM CST reply actions

I love this stuff

I mean with the writers strike and all where can you get such
good laughs these days ?

Also lets take it a step further. Let's give Phil 10 nice shiny pennies for that old crumpled $20 bill.

"It's the Cubbies. There's always a vibe. It's the greatest vibe in baseball." Greg Maddux on Cub fan's optimism even after the 06 debacle.

by jessica on Jan 23, 2008 12:49 PM CST reply actions

One big problem with Phil Roger's system...

...is that it completely undervalues the contributions of team's farm system. It only accounts for players who already have significant MLB experience. How can anyone, in any seriousness, say that the contributions of Soto will be less-than-comparable to Kendall? And good pitchers make big MLB splashes all the time.

Maybe we should come up with a +/- system for newspaper baseball writers. - TL

by timlacy on Jan 23, 2008 1:58 PM CST reply actions

Ok.

Phil Rodgers = -infinity

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 2:07 PM CST up reply actions

dash of reality into your kool aid

better are the Cubs by adding Fukudome and losing Jones?

I'll say 4.

Let's see....who else have the Cubs added....ummm, yeah, that's it. Oh, I almost forgot, Jon Lieber.

Ok, now who thinks Lilly will duplicate his career year of last year? Derosa? Soto will upgrade the Catching position. Theriot will be Theriot at SS. ARam will be ARam, if he doesn't get hurt, Lee will be Lee, Soriano just scares me, Pie is an absolute unknown. Jon Lieber could very well be the 4th starter on this team.

It always annoys me the arrogance of Cub fans being content. Content being the most lethal ingredient in the kool aid.

This team still has plenty of holes, but you would never know by reading this site, where holding on to average prospects for "the future" instead of using prospects to get players to help them win now, when the future is now, is the mentality.

Yeah, they're warmer and fuzzier than the past couple years, but are still not good enough to win the World Series and that annoys me even more.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:07 PM CST reply actions

And yet...

we won our division last year with those "holes" in our lineup. We got better this off-season by simply getting rid of bad baseball players, adding Fukudome and a full season of Soto will more than makeup for Pie's probable offensive struggles. I also hang my hat on the fact that Lou has shown us he won't let a vortex of suck linger in the lineup. He'll do something if he has to, unlike a certain former manager that just made 163 photocopies of a lineup and hoped "things would just work themselves out dude."

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions

You misunderstood me

The Cubs are good enough to win this Division, undoubtedly.

They are not good enough to win the NL and get to the World Series.

THat's what annoys me. They are so GD close. Only 1 player away from being the best team in the NL and another move away from being a legitimate threat to win the World Series, but the majority of Cub fans want the Cubs to hold onto these "prospects" for the future, when the future is now. I'd trade the entire farm for another quality starter and a SS. I would finally for the first time in my life, legitimately think the Cubs had a chance to win the World Series.

As of today, I don't.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions

you didnt

think the Cubs would be World Series contenders in 2004?

They are OK for now, if they can make a big trade before July 31st, Id be OK with it.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 23, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions

If we are...

"Only 1 player away from being the best team in the NL"

Why are we doomed to fail at reaching/winning the WS? The "best team" doesn't always win it. Just ask the Detroit Tigers.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions

So

you don't think it gives you a better chance to win it all by adding players that can help you win in 08?

I fully realize the best team on paper doesn't always win, but that isn't going to stop me from still trying to be the best team.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions

You may be missing my point...

I'm not suggesting we shouldn't attempt to acquire better baseball players. I am suggesting that the team we have now is better than the one we had last year, and pointed out the success that last years team had. This does not mean this years team will automatically win the division, but judging from your opinion we are really really good. Getting to the playoffs is what we must be able to do, I just think that after that...it's much more a roll of the dice as to who comes out on top.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 2:52 PM CST up reply actions

There's no roll of the dice in baseball

It's a 162 game season and the best overall teams will make the playoffs.

After that, the equation is pretty simple: Pitching.

The Cubs have a good enough team to make the playoffs, but not the Pitching to go beyond that.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:58 PM CST up reply actions

Come on now

You said:

After that, the equation is pretty simple: Pitching.

That's clearly not always true. Just look at the 2006 Cardinals. They only had two pitchers remotely better than average, Suppan and Carpenter. Having a strong top 3 certainly plays a bigger factor in the postseason, but any team can take a best of 5 or best of 7 series. We all want the Cubs to field the "best" team possible, but the "best" players don't guarantee a WS victory - that's why they play the games.

Making the playoffs consistently, year after year, is really the only way to increase the odds of winning a World Series. Obviously, better players increase your chances of making it to the playoffs, but if you sell the farm to make a run at it today and fail, you also reduce your chances of even making it back for another shot in the future.

by false cognate on Jan 23, 2008 5:03 PM CST up reply actions

LSA!

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

Most teams aren't the CUbs

Most teams that I know of haven't won a World Series in 100 years.

Last I checked,

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 7:11 PM CST up reply actions

Let me put it this way

if I am rolling dice, I like to do that with the best players (that can help me now) I can possibly get.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions

The DBacks owned the Cubs in the playoffs

and also had the better regular season record before anyone says the DBacks "got lucky"...anyway, the DBacks have a true ace in Webb. They now have 2 aces in Webb and Haren and their youngsters will only get better this year offensively.

The Cubs added Fukudome, which I am stoked about, but it won't be enough. THe Cubs need another starter and SS if they want to close the gap on the DBacks.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions

Plus

Every other team has similar questions to the ones you just raised. The Cubs don't play in a vacuum, every other team goes through the same things we do regarding our players and the type of year they'll have and where the team will finish when it's all said and done. If they didn't there wouldn't be any reason to play the season, there would just be a consensus on who was best and they'd get the WS trophy. We Cubs fans aren't arrogant morons resting on our laurels, forgive us though if we actually have some faith in our team, misguided or not.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 23, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions

Faith?

Is that what you call it?

I've been a fan way too long, to have faith in the Cubs.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions

On that note...

A fitting repost.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 23, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions

You're the man Santos

That is hilarious.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:49 PM CST up reply actions

I'm with you

on doing all you can to improve the team NOW. The window is there, and they have the financial resources, so why not do all you can to strengthen the team as much as possible?

Winning a weak division is all well and good, and I realize it gets you to the dance, but it is not a good strategy to rely on "lightning in a bottle" to get you through a couple playoff series if you don't have to. I also agree that many tend to be averse to the thought of trading prospects (when no one knows whether they will be good major league players) to solidify the chance to win now, when the opportunity is there for the taking.

With all this said, I do think Hendry will concentrate on going for it now, and trade several prospects to improve the clubs chances in the near term. IMHO, this is the right strategy, and considering the Cubs haven't won in forever, I don't see how you let this opportunity pass by worrying about prospects that may or may not be worth anything at the major league level.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions

I agree

For whatever reason, I think Hendry understands that the Cubs are realllly really close and feels that sense of urgency and to do whatever it takes to make this team better. So there, I guess I do have a tad bit of faith still left in me.

It's planted in Hendry though, which scares me.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions

I have been a Hendry critic as well

but I feel more confident in him now for a couple reasons:

He has Piniella telling him what he wants
He is trying to show new owners they need to keep him

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with both of you.

That ought to make the trading deadline this year really interesting.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 23, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions

The trade deadline

will be interesting, but I have a feeling it's going to get interesting much sooner than that.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

I sure hope its much sooner than that

Waiting for July 31st when something can be done, say January 31st is dangerous. Who knows what guys are available and for what price then. It could be better than now but if it isn't and the Cubs really need an upgrade, especially starting pitching, they could be shit out of luck.

The O's are doing the same thing with their best guys that the Twinkies are doing with Santana. Trying to milk anyone for the absolute maximum. The price will drop and when it does Hendry and Mr. McPhail should complete something very beneficial to both teams inside the next 3 weeks.

Boers and Bernstein's show yesterday were going nuts about why Hendry hasn't jumped on getting Lofton. They must have read my mind. It won't cost any players, he's better than Byrd IMHO and those players could be used in an O's trade.

The Baltimore Sun yesterday was talking about "Gallagher and a young OF" for Roberts in their main article in addition to McPhail deciding approx by the end of the month whether or not to deal both Roberts and Bedard. Seattle was again mentioned as the top suitor for Bedard.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 24, 2008 5:54 AM CST up reply actions

They're back to the Gallagher thing again?

Nope, sorry, not interested. ("Young outfielder" probably means Colvin, not Murton, and I wouldn't do that either.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 24, 2008 9:37 AM CST up reply actions

Even if you ignore the evidence...

...that Kenny Lofton's on the way down, there's no way you can just compare him and Byrd like that. Why? Because Kenny Lofton is left-handed. The whole point in seeking Byrd is finding a platoon outfielder to caddy for Pie against left-handed pitching.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 24, 2008 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

I think you mean

....that an idiot caller was getting all worked up about getting Kenny Lofton, the two dufus hosts were bashing the guy for suggesting getting the 41 year old Lofton.

Just another case of Boers and Bernstein being rude to callers.

BTW, to endorse The Score, I was the 68th texter last night and won Hawks tickets for tonight, if they are from the Score do you guys think the tickets will be on the glass?

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 24, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions

I've always been...

...a Hendry fan. That feel was cemented with the circumstances of the Ted Lilly signing last year. But, because of Piniella, I like the coordination between the GM's office and the field better than at any time during Hendry's tenure. - TL

"Why shouldn't we believe that we're going to win the World Series?" - Ted Lilly, 1/19/2008, Daily Herald interview w/Barry Rozner

by timlacy on Jan 23, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions

Exactly.

I agree with others above that the Cubs do not have enough pitching to advance in the playoffs (they have enough to get there in this mediocre division, though). But I believe more trades are to come to bring more pitching before the July trade deadline.

by Fraggin Judge on Jan 23, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions

EDIT!!!!!!!

How many games better are the Cubs by the addition of Fukudome and the subtraction of Jones

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 2:08 PM CST reply actions

That depends on their competition

as much as it depends on what the Cubs did. Predicting how good the NL will be compared to last year (which wasn't very good) is virtually impossible to do with any reliability.

IMO, they are probably about an 88-90 win club assuming the level of competition is the same as 07.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 23, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions

Well

Let's start with the NL Central:

Cardinals had to of gotten worse
Reds I think will be better
Brewers will be better
Astros I have no idea. Probably a little better.
Pirates will be equally as bad

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 23, 2008 3:27 PM CST up reply actions

I think he's not taking his meds

n/t

by blackhawk24 on Jan 23, 2008 2:11 PM CST reply actions

HAHAHAHA

"(raise your hand if you knew 102 players would drive in more runs than Alfonso Soriano last year, including Brandon Phillips, Bengie Molina, Mark Ellis, Jack Cust, Curtis Granderson and Mark DeRosa). "

I coulda told you that, he hits leadoff. I'm a 17 year old kid and even I know that if you hit leadoff in the NL you have very limited RBI opportunities, hence all of his solo shots.

Durrrrrr.

by zam on Jan 23, 2008 5:06 PM CST reply actions