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Latest on Roberts

Goat_logo_tiny by Goat Whisperer on Comment 258 comments

It looks like the first Oriole domino is about to fall: Bedard to the Mariners.

According to ESPN Deportes, Adam Jones was unexpectedly pulled from his Venezuelan Winter League team to fly to Baltimore for a physical.

The Seattle Times is also reporting that Bedard to the Mariners is about to go down: http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/

That portion is accurate. Take the following with a pound of salt:

According to other sources, Roberts to the Cubs will not be far behind. MacPhail wanted to deal his #1 chip first, before dealing Roberts.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I wrote something similar in the Grace thread
Yeah, basically if we are still pursuing Roberts (which is most likely the case), it is gonna happen real soon, it could happen by Tuesday, IMO. It depends on what they want. If its Colvin and Gallagher, I'd have to do it.
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 6:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Finally
I figured that Bedard had to be traded first.  Maybe this is good for the Cubs.  They didn't have the prospects for both.  If the O's get Adam Jones from the M's, they won't need Pie.  That might mean that Marshall, Gallagher, and Colvin would net Roberts.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 27, 2008 7:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

based on your nametag
seems like you wouldn't want Roberts. Unless of course DeRo moves to SS
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 7:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm resigned to it...
Personally, I know that DeRo can play SS as well as Riot (adequate, not Gold Glove level) since I've actually seen him play SS in person at Turner Field.  However...

My opinion doesn't count, and Lou doesn't seem to share my view.  In fact, I think that Lou wants DeRo completely gone -- just not in favor of Fontenot or Patterson.  That being the case, Roberts is the best replacement the Cubs can get, and I want DeRo traded before ST just to give him a chance to go to his new team early.

The fate of my nametag is TBD...

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 27, 2008 7:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What's wrong with...
...DeRo as a super-sub for the Cubs?
The unexamined blog is not worth reading.

by neonverse1 on Jan 27, 2008 8:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

why?
because apparently Mark De Rosa is Jesus in Pinstripes.

Calm down folks.

Mark DeRosa isn't going anywhere.

He is an extremely valuable player who can play multiple positions.

"You're fired." - Dallas Green to Billy Connors while Billy was staying in the hospital.

by jdoolsiu on Jan 28, 2008 1:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: I'm resigned to it...
On what do you base your belief that Lou wants DeRo off the team? I'm not necessarily arguing with you -- just curious as to where this impression comes from. I've never seen Lou indicate any dislike for him.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 27, 2008 8:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty simple...
  1.  He wants a speedy, LHB middle infielder, and he isn't going after a SS, 3B, or 1B.
  2.  He has made it very clear that Riot is his SS.
  3.  Hendry has said that they want to "reduce his ABs by 50-100", but he hit .309/.412/.433 in Sept. -- meaning he didn't wear down, doesn't need his ABs reduced, and the statement is a lie or a cover-up.
  4.  Barring a major injury, there is no way to give him the 400 ABs promised by Hendry without playing him at SS or CF -- the two positions at which Lou refuses to play him.  Do you want DeRo taking 100 ABs each from a healthy Sori, Dome, Roberts, and Ramy????  Me either.  Those guys don't need a day off per week and Lou knows it.  This is another cover-up by Hendry.
  5.  During the Cubs Caravan, Lou was asked "What will you do with DeRosa if you get Roberts?"  Lou's answer (more honest than Hendry):  "I don't know."  That sounds like a dodge for "We're trading him."  Apparently, Lou doesn't plan on using him as a super-sub or he would have said so.
  6.  DeRo has two years left on his contract.  If the Cubs make him a super-sub, they are telling the rest of MLB "we have a sub that we're paying like a starter".  That ruins his trade value.  (How much trade value did JJ have after Lou benched him?)  Right now, DeRo has value and is very tradable.
  7.  DeRo is one of the team leaders.  No way would Lou risk having a clearly unhappy team leader in the clubhouse -- especially after the insurrection last May.
  8.  DeRo would represent a threat to Riot -- especially from the fan and media perspective -- if Riot got off to a slow start while DeRo was warming the bench.  Since Lou loves Riot, he is going to protect him by eliminating that threat.
  9.  If Lou really wanted to move DeRo around (with 2B being his "home position") but wanted someone better than Fontenot to play 2B when he was needed elsewhere he could have just signed Loretta or Graffanino -- good part time players who wouldn't have cost any prospects.  
  10.  The fact that he is willing to give up Marshall and/or Gallagher and/or Colvin and/or ??? means that he must have some real itch to replace DeRo and that he is willing to mortgage the future (including some of this year's pitching depth) for what is a minimal gain in OBP.  I have no idea why he is that desparate -- it's just that all signs say that he is.
If anyone truly believes Hendry's "super-sub" spiel -- and apparently Lou doesn't -- I have some beautiful mountaintop property to sell in Florida.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 27, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe
they are trying to talk up the Riot to up HIS value.

Not saying they are, but you could take it both  ways.

by nickler on Jan 27, 2008 10:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think there is any trade value...
...for Ryan Theriot. I could be wrong, but I don't see how. I am willing to hear arguements to the contrary.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 28, 2008 2:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no idea.
I'm just talking out of my arse.  I have nothing to back it up, just wishful thinking.  Believe me, you know WAY more than I do, or  for that matter than just about anyone here!

A question for you though... if Roberts is signed, do you agree with the other posters' claims that we will likely trade DeRosa for pitching?  If so, who would be a target?  Or is this another pipe dream like mine above?

by nickler on Jan 28, 2008 2:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Don't think we'd trade him...
...for pitching, because I don't think he'd bring back anything better than what we have on hand. Don't know what we could trade him for, really. He certainly does have trade value - I know the Yankees were after him for a while.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 28, 2008 11:25 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree something has to be up
since the cubs want roberts and seem to not have derosa as their starting second basemen on opening day.  There's no way derosa gets near 400 at bats as a super sub.  I think he may be part of the "one or two" significant moves the cubs are looking to make before spring training.

by cubsmania on Jan 27, 2008 10:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Instincts most likely correct
The issue is multiple: Cubs (Hendry and Piniella know they need more regular left handed bats in the lineup, more speed to disrupt pitchers rhythm and table setters before the big guns in the middle of the order.)

So if Roberts is acquired for Marshall-Gallagher-Colvin than Cubs have surplus in the middle infield. So then you ask two questions: One who would you want at SS if both Theriot and DeRosa are essentially equivalent. DeRosa is better offensively (run driver) but Theriot has more speed both can play a utility role on the infield, barring Theriot at 1B, DeRosa can play the corner OF and Theriot it is said sub in CF. Fiscally Theriot is at the MLB minimum for his level experience while DeRosa is at $4M.

The obvious choice is to trade DeRosa since one can get return for value in another area of weakness ...hmmm like a bona fide 4th OF'er who can platoon in CF and be a solid RH bat off the bench.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jan 28, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

good points.
i think you could be on to something. boy, i will really hate to see derosa go; but, if he goes, bring back pitching!
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 11:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Pretty simple...
Hm, well I'm not sure anything that takes 10 numbered points to explain can be called "pretty simple." That said, you raise a lot of interesting ideas, some of which make some sense to me and some of which don't. Where I would disagree is:
1. "Do you want DeRo taking 100 ABs each from a healthy Sori, Dome, Roberts, and Ramy????  Me either.  Those guys don't need a day off per week and Lou knows it.  This is another cover-up by Hendry."

The key word there is "healthy". ARam has had leg problems every year. I'd be more than happy to see Lou give him a day off every week and have DeRo play third base. (Maybe not during a playoff run at the season's end, but certainly for the first half or two-thirds of the season.)I'd say the same thing for Soriano, considering the lingering uncertainties regarding his legs. I'm not so sure about Roberts or Dome needing time off every week but it couldn't hurt. Let us all remember the lesson the '69 Cubs taught us: Run your starters ragged and the team will suffer down the stretch.

8. DeRo would represent a threat to Riot -- especially from the fan and media perspective -- if Riot got off to a slow start while DeRo was warming the bench.  Since Lou loves Riot, he is going to protect him by eliminating that threat.

Lou definitely seems to like Theriot, but I don't believe he's signed the adoption papers to quite this extent. If DeRo was threatening a proven superstar like Lee or Soriano, I could maybe see the organization eliminating him. But throw him under the boss for Ryan Theriot? Seems a bit of a stretch.

Again, I'm not in total disagreement here. It's entirely possible that, given DeRosa's statements of frustration in the press, Lou has labeled him expendable. On the other hand, it's hard for me to understand Lou wanting to do away with a player that brings such versatility to the team and allows him to rest his regulars -- something Lou openly admitted to wanting to do last season and certainly will want to do again this season.

For the time being, I remain uncertain, confused and altogether frustrated by this prospective Roberts trade.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 28, 2008 9:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Correction!
"throw him under the boss" obviously should be "throw him under the bus." I'm not sure which depraved corner of my mind that Freudian slip came from.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 28, 2008 9:45 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought you werer throwing
him under a Steinbrenner or maybe Springsteen.
"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Jan 28, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Or Costanza
But that would involve giving him a raise.

by TheHawk5 on Jan 29, 2008 12:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

versatility
i think lou would be all for the derosa trade, if it brought us an equally, if not more versatile player in chone figgins.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 28, 2008 9:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't think of a single reason why Lou
would want Derosa gone. I can understand why he likes him as a super-sub; Dero plays solid defense all over the field and swings a much better bat than the other utility options.

Still, I'd just as soon have Dero start. Roberts doesn't get me excited.

We need a bonafied starting pitcher (and it sounds like we'll see him go to Seattle).

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 11:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...
I would have to disagree with you.  There is no way Lou would want DeRo completely gone.  His ability to play multiple positions was the reason he was the cubs first half MVP last year.  Lou frequently praises his defensive ability, as well as his high OBP.

by WUSTLCubsFan on Jan 27, 2008 11:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ug. i'm not happy about this.
i was really hoping we'd land bedard. we don't really need roberts. he makes us a little better, but i'd rather have derosa. however, we really need pitching; marquis, dempster, lieber, etc. aren't going to cut it.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 7:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think Murton + Gallagher is the right price
but i'd personally just prefer to go with what we have...

Gallagher is about the only MLB-Ready solid pitching prospect we have.

Marshall's a decent prospect but not someone who has the potential to be a mid-top rotation guy, i think he's at best a 4

i think Gallagher at worst is a 4... i'd prefer to just go with DeRo

Roberts is due for a pretty large falloff offensively

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 27, 2008 7:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

the O's don't want Murton
i've heard from multiple sources that the O's are looking for mostly picthing and infielders, and now that they've got Jones they don't have any spots for him. unless they plan on flipping him to the Padres for Khalil Greene, that is...

by petrie on Jan 27, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
jones is a CF, Murton can't play CF

Markakis is their RF

they have Luke Scott who can play LF and is a perfect platoon player with Murton and they can also take up some of the DH AB's instead of giving them to Kevin Millar or Aubrey Huff

and since Millar and Huff are towards the end of their run with the O's getting another cost-controlled major league bat would probably make some sense in a rebuilding process

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 27, 2008 8:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

hmmmm
Is that a 3-way trade I smell?
1st Official Al-Wanna-Be! Feel free to become an Oficial Al-Wanna-Be Today!

by LilLPLancer23 on Jan 28, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Adam Jones used to be a SS
and while I haven't heard this rumored anywhere, I wonder if the O's wouldn't see about moving him back there.  I don't think he was moved because of a lack of defense as much as because the M's were confident in Betancourt at SS.

But I do agree that the O's don't seem to want Murton.  I just wouldn't say that a Jones acquisition rules out their interest in Pie/Colvin.

*** On Sabermetric Probation ***

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 5:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Adam Jones
is a steep price, even for Bedard. This almost guarantees the O's wanted Pie as part of any deal for Bedard, maybe for Roberts, as well, but with Jones in the fold, perhaps negotiations for Roberts get a bit easier. This, of course, assumes Jones is indeed being traded.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 27, 2008 7:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think we can pretty much all agree...
that the deal will be done before the end of the week.  My thought is do you think we could package Gallagher and someone else other than Murton to get Roberts.  Then send Murton and someone else over to San Diego to get Khalil Greene?

I feel that we would be alright the way we are, but if we could land these two somehow our D up the middle would be about as good as it gets between Greene, Roberts and Pie.  

I fully understand that there hasn't been much talk of the Padres moving Greene, but he is having family issues (whatever they are) and the Padres will need to work his contract out.  I have loved Kahlil Greene since he was at Clemson and would LOVE to see him playing short for the Cubbies.

by dus22 on Jan 27, 2008 7:47 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

we can get Greene
dunno if he's on the management's radar, so this is pure speculation from my point, but i think a deal of Cedeno, Murton and Patterson would be enough to land Greene from San Diego. SD has no real infield prospect in the minors projected to do anything on the major league level, and fortunately for the Cubs they don't need pitchers. we don't need Murton or Cedeno if we get Greene, and Eric Patterson is a perfectly acceptable price to pay for him.

by petrie on Jan 27, 2008 8:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If only..
we didn't make that stupid trade of Moore and Cherry for Traschel, those could have been key pieces in a Roberts and Bedard trade...
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 8:15 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I hope
you're not serious.

Rocky Cherry and Scott Moore never would have been anything more than a throw-in in any trade for Bedard or Roberts.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Jan 27, 2008 9:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rosenthal chimes in...
...with more.
Another significant deal involving second baseman Brian Roberts likely would follow. The Cubs remain heavily interested in Roberts, and the Orioles could receive prospects such as pitcher Sean Gallagher and outfielder Felix Pie or veterans such as RHP Jason Marquis and outfielder Matt Murton.

Marquis and Murton sounds MUCH more palatable. Which is why I doubt the O's would do it, but still.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 27, 2008 8:26 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Marquis....and Murton...
for Roberts, with that I say, GET IT DONE JIM!
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 8:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guessing that what that really means...
...is Gallagher/Murton or Pie/Marquis for Roberts. In which case I really don't know what I would prefer.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 27, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who plays center?
...if Pie is traded. With Fukudome guaranted RF, would it be DeRosa, Cedeno, Fuld?

For this reason I like the Gallarger/Murton trade more b/c we would be making a hole and Roberts isn't really even filling a hole.

by cubswin14 on Jan 27, 2008 9:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Cedeno
Much like Theriot, Lou seems to also like Cedeno.  He gives him more chances than anyone else on the team.  From what I read, Cedeno did good in Center.

I caught highlights of Winter League, Ronny got the winning run for his team in the playoffs yesterday.  If only he could bring that to the Cubs...

by ak123 on Jan 27, 2008 9:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I Disagree...
... I think Cedeno does not play smart baseball, which likely irks the crap out of Piniella...
This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 27, 2008 9:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
I don't think Piniella cares very much for Cedeno at all.

by SouthernCub on Jan 27, 2008 9:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree
Cedeno definitely does not play smart baseball.

I do think for whatever reason Lou is very forgiving of Cedeno.  The main reasons:

  1. Getting the 25th roster spot.
  2. Actually getting called back up.
  3. Being on the playoff roster.
  4. Being used in any role during the playoffs.  
I think Lou likes Cedeno but knows he's a bonehead yet hopes Cedeno is a better player.  

by ak123 on Jan 27, 2008 9:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

if they trade pie for roberts and put cedeno
in center, i'm going to be out of my mind.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

CF
Fuld, Eric Patterson, and a player not on roster like Marlon Byrd would all get looks.
*** On Sabermetric Probation ***

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 5:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

my god
that would be fantastic

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 27, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously...
... why would the O's want Marquis?!?

And, yes, the O's have passed on Murton more than once...

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 27, 2008 10:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I heard
that the Orioles want Marquis, because they feel they need to add innings eater. You don't want a bunch of young pitchers burning their arms out trying to get the team through 9 innings. Marquis is very inconsistent and not a very good starter, but he gives the team innings(which are valueable).

by cubsfan25 on Jan 27, 2008 10:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

well Adam Jones said he is going there
for a physical, it's getting done, he doesn't want to announce it yet.
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 8:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If you're right
and Jones turns out to be the five-tool guy he's rumored to be, Andy MacPhail's made a nice deal. From what I've heard, Jones projects to a Carl Crawford clone, perhaps with less average and more power. Bedard is a good young pitcher, but Jones may turn into the kind of hitter you build a lineup around. Plus, given Bedard's injury history, perhaps MacPhail struck while the iron was hot and traded Bedard at the peak of his value.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 27, 2008 8:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Dulles
Dulles is only 55 minutes away. If I hurry, I can see if Jones is on a flight from Venezuela.

... Nah.

PERRY!!!!

by Goat Whisperer on Jan 27, 2008 8:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I actually flew into Dulles last night
and I looked around for a guy in the arrivals area with huge glasses and a sweatervest holding a sign saying "Jones CF", but alas, he wasn't there.
Why does everybody stand up and sing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" when they're already there? ~Larry Anderson

by JohnM on Jan 28, 2008 7:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

pie?
not pie who will play cf?everyone else mentioned yes!not pie.look we need to let this cat play and see what he can do....period!i do think hendry will acquire a pitcher somewhere.hopefull,someone with more upside than leiber!!

by cubz409 on Jan 27, 2008 8:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Where is Adams?!?!?!
From what I hear he is:

1)still in winterball
2)heading to baltimore
3)heading to the US

Quiet frankly, I believe that no one has a clue where this guy is right now..

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 9:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

replace Adams with Jones
n/t
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 9:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I hope Colvin is not
in the deal. Just got a good feeling about this guy. He has progressed well, better than Pie. Yes he has had college ball, IMO, Colvin will be a better player than Pie, just me.
 Hope he stays. Really don't want this trade to go down. It screws with DeRosa, not needed at this point.
 Starting pitching yes, Roberts no.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Jan 27, 2008 9:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Progressed better than Pie?
I don't think you've got your facts right here.  Colvin's numbers so far:

A- (at 20): .268/.313/.483 (.796 OPS)
A+ (at 21): .306/.336/.514 (.850 OPS)
AA (at 21): .291/.313/.462 (.775 OPS)

Pie's numbers so far:

A+  (at 19): .297/.358/.441 (.799 OPS)
AA  (at 20): .304/.349/.554 (.903 OPS)
AAA (at 21): .283/.341/.451 (.792 OPS)
AAA (at 22): .362/.410/.563 (.973 OPS)

Colvin is a nice prospect, but I would say he's progressed better Pie so far.  Faster?  Sure.  But he also had 3 years of college, so he's expected to do that.  And he's actually behind Pie in terms of progression by age.

by SouthernCub on Jan 27, 2008 9:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The numbers don't prove all....
Colvin was taken by Tim Wilken who is a 27 year veteran scout that turned Tampa Bay's farm system into the #1 farm system in baseball and already has 4 of the top 10 Cubs prospects per Baseball America. So in my opinion I would have more faith holding on to Colvin than Pie. Wilken's has a gift and I would like to benefit from it for a long time.
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 27, 2008 10:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say they did...
I was just commenting on the post that said Colvin had progressed better than Pie.  That simply is factually false.

Is it possible that Colvin eventually will be better than Pie?  Sure.  But aside from the fact that Wilken drafted him, there's nothing so far to suggest that he'll be better than Pie.  If anything, I'd argue that the evidence so far suggests the opposite.

I completely agree about Wilken being extremely good at his job.  He has a fantastic track record at Tampa and at Toronto.  But just because he didn't draft Pie doesn't mean Pie won't be good.  Nor does the fact that he drafted Colvin mean Colvin will be better than Pie.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 6:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess
I should of expressed myself better. I did make the point of Colvin having college ball, I guess my point is he has moved faster up the chain then Pie, and yes a lot of it has to do with college ball. As mentioned IMO, I like Colvins upside more than Pie, that is my take, nothing against Pie. I just see Pie struggling at the plate, where as I see Colvin improving, getting stronger, and possibly an All-Star.
 Hell I could be wrong, I just wouldn't trade him at this point in his 2 year Cub career.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Jan 28, 2008 9:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure why...
you see Pie struggling at the plate but Colvin getting better.  Is it entirely based on the fact that you've seen Pie play at the MLB level, but have not really seen Colvin play at all?  That would be my guess, because there's nothing I can see in their minor league numbers to suggest that Colvin will be more successful in MLB than Pie.

Also, I'd say Pie has more upside, because he's faster, better defensively, and actually is more likely to take a walk.

If your opinion is just a hunch, that's fine (it's your opinion, of course!).  I just don't see anything in the numbers to substantiate the hunch.

by SouthernCub on Jan 29, 2008 6:35 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Heyman Reports...
"If the Orioles do complete the Bedard trade, word is that they would likely then send second baseman Brian Roberts to Chicago for prospects, possibly outfielder Felix Pie and pitcher Sean Gallagher. However, the Roberts deal appears to be waiting on completion of the Bedard deal."

from: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/01/27/scoop.bedard/

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 27, 2008 9:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

There are a few phrases in there...
...such as "word is" and "possibly" that really make it hard to parse. Are his possible prospects coming from the folks with the word, or is he just rehashing the same old rumors?
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 27, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As the old saying goes....
...nothing is for sure and thats for sure.

As I have stated before, I think this deal gets done, and it's the right move to give you the best chance to win in the short term.

Go for it Jimmy!

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 27, 2008 9:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't have
a problem sending Gallagher over there, but I think sending our top pitching prospect and our top position prospect (I know Pie is probably not technically a prospect, but you know what i mean) is pretty steep. I don't know how you could look at that deal as anything but a huge win for Baltimore.

Plus why would they want Pie when they just got Jones?

Murton or Cedeno plus Gallagher seems more likely.

by jazzypete on Jan 28, 2008 8:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Considering Pie
has not proven he can hit major league pitching, he would still be considered a prospect.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 28, 2008 11:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If we do get Roberts....
then as much as I love DeRosa, I hope the Cubs can trade him for another starting pitcher before or during spring training.  You just can't have a veteran who is that good rotating around as your super-sub.  Yes, guys need days off, but Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soriano, and Theriot (DeRo's potential fill-in spots) are going to be playing most days.  400 at-bats would be a stretch, unless DeRosa can play CF, which I'm not sure he can.  I'd hate to see him go, but if we're not going to play him anyway, he definitely has the trade value for one more pitcher.  
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 27, 2008 9:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i'd much rather see derosa in center
then cedeno.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 11:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

From MLBTR...
"No deal, says Andy MacPhail.  He denies that Jones is headed to Baltimore for a physical."
This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 27, 2008 10:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

so
why is Jones going to Baltimore?
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 27, 2008 10:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He likes the nightlife?
He likes to boogie?

Maybe this is part of a lead up to the trade, maybe this is part of another deal we haven't heard and Jones isn't on his way to Baltimore at all.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 27, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Why?
To experience the overrated aquarium?
PERRY!!!!

by Goat Whisperer on Jan 27, 2008 10:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Duff
has made him a cake in the shape of Safeco Field.
It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Jan 28, 2008 2:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Pie goes to Baltimore
which I hope he doesn't, what if they're sending Dero and some others to the Angels for Chone Figgins? Just thinking aloud

by philadelphiacub on Jan 27, 2008 10:36 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

on paper this would make total sense
LAA signed Torri Hunter and have moved Matthews to DH or rotating OF'er and Figgins playing 3B is okay but DeRosa playing 3B for the Halos would provide them more power and possibly defense. Figgins for the Cubs would be a perfect CF starter or platoon starter (switch hitter) where he has played 230+ games in CF, almost the same as a 3B, and he can play 2B or any other OF.  He again has speed with 41 SB, add Roberts at 2B with 50 steals and Theriot with 28 SB, Soriano, Fukudome, Pie and even Lee and this club will be murderous on the base paths and defense.
Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jan 28, 2008 9:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the more I think about it tho...
I love the idea of Chone Figgins at Wrigley, but I bet the trade is more likely to be for Gary Matthews, Jr. of which i think, well.....not so much

by philadelphiacub on Jan 28, 2008 10:10 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
  1. Soriano LF
  2. Roberts 2B
  3. D Lee 1B
  4. A Ram 3B
  5. Fuku RF
  6. Figgins CF
  7. Soto C
  8. Theriot SS
That would be amazing
1st Official Al-Wanna-Be! Feel free to become an Oficial Al-Wanna-Be Today!

by LilLPLancer23 on Jan 28, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soto
I think I would bat Soto before Figgins in that lineup.

by Cub Fan in Card Country on Jan 28, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd bat Roberts first in that one!
Sorry, couldn't help myself.

But I would!

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 28, 2008 11:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but
If that really was the lineup, I wouldn't care if Lou picked the order out of a hat!

by TheHawk5 on Jan 29, 2008 1:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Roberts trade rumors
Sean Gallagher dad posst on another message board, and he said that he heard the Orioles weren't asking for Murton or Cedeno. I'm not sure how good his sources are though.

But rumors I heard sound like Pie/Gallagher or Pie/Marshall or maybe even Pie,Gallagher and Marquis if we want them to take Marquis contract to offset Roberts contract. Personally i think thats way to much for Roberts, and don't think we should trade Pie in any deal for him.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 27, 2008 10:52 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It might have just happened
Check MLBTR.  I really agree with Tim Dierkes though.  2 years of Roberts for 12 years of Gallagher/Pie just does not sound good.

by rambler19 on Jan 27, 2008 11:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

oops
I should have said the Bedard trade...haha.

by rambler19 on Jan 27, 2008 11:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

exactly. don't trade pie.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 27, 2008 11:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Biggest mistake of their lives..
If they trade Pie and Gallagher for Roberts. Granted  Pie and Gallagher are unproven, but they have great potential. Personally, I'm not a huge fan of Roberts, but thats just me. If its Pie and Gallagher, I will be pissed.

by airmidget1 on Jan 27, 2008 11:38 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

biggest mistake
are you a cubs fan??? we don't have a luxury of time right now. matter of fact we have had nearly 100 years of time and have failed. if we can get roberts we have to take our chances on a super second baseman. he's exactly what we need. if we have to sacrifice pie then so be it. this team is built on a win now basis. its all or nothing at this point. we have fuld,cedeno, and we can pick up a cheap option like lofton which i want anyway for more reasons than one.
GO CUBS GO!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 27, 2008 11:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course...
I'm a diehard cubs fan. But Maybe its just me, but I'm not a huge fan of Roberts.

by airmidget1 on Jan 27, 2008 11:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

are you a cubs fan?
trading pie and gallgher for roberts hurts the cubs now, and hurts them worse in the future.  if this happens hendry does not have his head screwed on tight, and does not care an ounce about the cubs future, he only cares about not losing his job this year.

simply, pie's defense will be more valuable to the cubs in 2008 than the marginal upgrade roberts would give us.  gallgher could easily emerge as our #5 starter by may, this i absolutely ridiculous that anyone would want this deal to go down.

hey we have a second baseman who was pretty good last year, wait ive got it!  lets trade our top prospect and best defensive outfielder, PLUS our top pitching prospect so we can replace our second baseman!! YES, thats it, world series here we come.

give me a f*cking break.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 28, 2008 7:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Where do you want it?
 Calm down there tiger. The Cubs aren't trading both Pie and Gallagher in any deal for just Roberts.
I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 8:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

haha
i know i need to calm down because these are liklely baseless rumors, but as i read more and more it seemed that it could actually be possible that pie is included in a trade for roberts, and if that is true id go nuts, and anyone advocating that is equally as nuts.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 28, 2008 9:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Juice Boy
You are all going to be crying next summer when "Juice Boy" Roberts is hitting 200 and ARam gets hurt again and there is no DeRo to cover for him.  Hope that Fonty can do the job (if he is even available).  
I want my Macias!

by wombat on Jan 28, 2008 12:45 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why would he....
hit .200?????? He is a career .281 hitter who in the last 3 years has an OBP of 3.70, scored 280 runs, stole 113 bases, and last year walked 89 times. He has never in his career struck out 100 times. Finally the Cubs are making strides to right the old ways of low OBP guys who hit home runs and have no speed. This guy will change the front half of the line-up drastically. Let's not forget that those numbers were also on a terrible team. He has gotten better every year he has been in the bigs, numbers don't lie. There is no way he would digress like that in a million years. I love the thought of 40-50 stolen bases from the top of the order and love Soriano not being in the leadoff spot even more!!!!!
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 28, 2008 1:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well said
Let the haters digest all that!
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 28, 2008 10:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

while he wont regress towards .200
which is completely assinine...

a regression is pretty likely. Seriously delve into Roberts stats and you'll see a lot of inconsistency

2005 and last year were very good seasons but don't they look more like the outliers given his minor league and major league track record outside of those seasons

2nd half of last year he hit: .247/.341/.415

his career line is .281/.351/.409

he's really not THAT big of an upgrade...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 28, 2008 10:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Right!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: Right!
Wow, Al -- you've really upped the picture-post ante here with this high-quality .gif. Clearly, santoswoodenlegs and I have some catching up to do. You have taken us to school.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 28, 2008 10:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually...
he sort of "borrowed" that one from me. With my explicit permission and tutalidge of course.
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 28, 2008 11:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok, you've got the "sustained" part down
Now comes the hard part - can you make it "loud"???  ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 28, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks..
... to santoswoodenlegs for this image.

Not quite sure I WANT to make it "loud". I know how much I hate websites that start playing music/ads/sounds without your permission.

You can just pretend you're hearing it...

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 1:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to admit Al
This gif disturbs me.
I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 29, 2008 1:15 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You are right but....
Something has to be said about intangibles that don't show up on the box scores. Balance makes a team go from good to great, he works counts which makes the pitcher work and the boppers behind him will actually get a chance to see a couple pitches. Pierre didn't do that and Soriano definitely doesn't bring that to the table. I agree that this isn't our biggest need but we don't have a good track record with developing our talent into major league impact players, until I see it I will trade the whole lot that wasn't drafted by Wilken. How bad is it that in recent years the only players that have done anything in this league have been Wood, Patterson, Prior!!!!! Ouch
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 28, 2008 6:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

alright here's what i don't get
how does Roberts get all these positive intangibles when he's never been on a winning team, and hasn't taken teams from "good-to-great"

and the player he'd be replacing in the lineup (DeRosa) is also lauded for these "intangibles"

but i guess the word intangibles which means something that cant be measured is used specifically for these cases, where legitimate arguments with evidence supported around them can't actually be made

as for working counts....

P/PA      DeRosa      Roberts

2005      3.92         3.68
2006      3.70         3.83
2007      3.90         4.20

Avg       3.85         3.91

we're talking about pretty small differences here in working counts

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 7:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because...
Guess I should feel honored to be hammered by Al.  It's been awhile.

But...geez...sometimes ya just have to spell it out for people.   His production will drop because without "the juice" he loses power, speed, and at his age, and more important, the ability to recover from playing day to day.  With HGH he was able to bounce back from the previous game feeling like he did when he was 21.  Without HGH, he will be like the 30 year old plus players of the past... slower and without the ability to play day-to-day.  

If you don't believe this stuff works read the Outside Magazine article on one older bicycle rider's experience on "the juice".

http://outside.away.com/outside/bodywork/200311/200311_drug_test_1.html

Sorry, I don't like cheaters.  When they stop cheating, their performance goes back to normal for their age (see Marion Jones' "comeback" or Barry Bonds last year as a reference).  And as the godfathers say at the end of the movie "Casino", "why take a chance."

I want my Macias!

by wombat on Jan 28, 2008 8:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Can't seem to figure it out...
but if this is about Roberts, the guy was juiced several years back.  He has not tested positive in the past few seasons and had a career year in 2007.

So...if this is about Roberts, why should we buy your thory that all of a sudden, after several years off the juice, that he will simply deflate and regress to pre-juice performance?

Not sure I follow you.  And, as much as I despise Bonds...his year last year wasn't horrible.

MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Jan 29, 2008 7:55 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Roberts' Regression
Here is another thing about Roberts that I am not thrilled with.  He IS going to regress.  He is simply not a 50 SB threat, that was a career year, so, it would be perfectly reasonable that he is more likely to steal ~50 bases over the next 2 seasons.

Furthermore, you are talking about dealing with a team that always overvalues their own players and undervalues incoming players.  Remember this is the team that nearly completed a deal for D-Lee, but wouldn't extend Lee.

It seems to me that the Orioles are getting quite a haul for Bedard, and still, the indications are that Angelos wants more.  

I really fear that in order to bring in any player from the O's, you need to be willing to get totally fleeced.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 29, 2008 12:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure natural regression is just a fact of life...
however this poster seems to insinuate that Roberts is due for a huge dropoff because he is not on PEDs anymore when he has not been on PEDs for a couple seasons at least, per his report and random testing over the past few years.

So why would anything more than a natural regression be expected?

I happen to agree that if Angelos asks for more, or perhaps even the current speculative package would be too much.

Screw Angelos.

MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Jan 29, 2008 12:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Absolutely
I don't expect a tremendout dropoff from Roberts.  The only stat I might expect to see a big drop in is his SB for 2 reasons:
  1. His numbers last year were way out of whack with his career
  2. SB are one of those stats that players on bad teams tend to pad.  If he is on 1st with the Cubs middle of the order up, he is likely to be more selective in when he steals.
Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 29, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That is a very good point.
He definitely won't have the same amount of chances to steal but Sweet Lou likes to run a lot!!! He just didn't have the tools to do that, I say running shakes the tree. A high percentage sb guy can make things happen. Look @ the Red Sox the other year, if it weren't for Dave Roberts they get swept by the Yankees and they don't win the World Series. One stolen base changed the entire complexion of that team and that situation.
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 29, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what I will love
is that if (or when goes on the 15 day DL list), DeRo can take his spot and we won't have to put Fonty in at 2nd

by DC Cubbie on Jan 28, 2008 6:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I am so tired of hearing about this.
I think, as Lou Piniella said at the convention, that the Cubs are just fine, for now, with the players they have. If there need to be changes, they can be done after spring training begins, or even in a midseason deal.

Just say no to this deal. If it were going to get done, it would have been done already.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 4:23 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

The Bedard Domino
Al, I am inclined to agree that this isn't a worthwhile deal, though it is hard to say without knowing who would be involved.

I disagree though that "If it were going to get done, it would have been done already"

For the Orioles to hold off on trading Roberts until the had traded Bedard makes perfect sense, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them shift to this deal now.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 7:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...
Al, clearly you don't like the idea of the deal, and that's fine.  But there are very plausible reasons why the deal might have taken a long time to come to fruition.  It might not ever happen, but it is completely reasonable to think that maybe the Roberts discussions were put on hold until after the Bedard and Tejada deal were completed.  In fact, I seem to recall that possibility being discussed back in either November or early December.  It's completely reasonable to think that the discussions are not dead.

I do wish that everything would just be settled (one way or the other) and we could get to the season.  But that's more of a frustration that it is only January, and the season doesn't start till March/April.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 8:41 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe.
But I'd also think that even Hendry might be getting tired of dealing with this over the course of almost two months; with pitchers and catchers reporting in 16 days, maybe he figures, "enough already".

Me, I'm not willing to give up Gallagher in this deal. He's got a chance to be a #2 or #3 starter. Too much.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 8:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he is tired of it...
but that's certainly not a definite.  It could also be that he was trying to get a deal done quickly (you know how aggressive he is), but had been told to wait until the Bedard deal was done.

I'm honestly unsure how I feel about the deal.  Yes, Gallagher COULD turn out to be a #2/#3 starter.  But he could also very well not pan out.  We don't know yet.  And at the same time, we have great depth in our rotation and some nice prospects coming up the vines as well.  And we are geared to win now.  If Hendry/Piniella feel that Roberts is a key piece to make us win right now, then I can understand the move from that perspective.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 8:52 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Has a "chance"
 Sure he has a "chance" to be a possible #2 or #3 but if you ask me, he has a better chance to be a career journey man. Look at all these other "future #2's or #3" pitchers the Cubs have traded over the last couple seasons like Jones and Pinto that Cubbie fans drooled over and needed their blankets and Cubbie pacifiers when they were traded and now look how those pitchers have turned out.

 Saying Gallagher has a chance to be a #2 is pushing it IMO. The Cubs should not be an orgainization to be in a situation where they decide they should keep a possible future #3 pitcher because they want to save money,instead of using that "possible future #3" and turning it into a proven All Star. With the way the Cubs are raising tickets and using auctions for tickets and the butt load of advertising within Wrigley )not too mention the likelihood of naming rights to Wrigley) the Cubs are no and should no longer be thinking of a middle budget team. They should be spending like the Red Sox, so if in the future they do need a #3 starter, they can shell out the cash and sign one.

 You have to give up something to get something and if Gallagher is the key piece to get Roberts and have a Middle IF of Roberts and Derosa, I'm doing that in a second.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 8:59 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No Colvin or Pie!
I think they BOTH could pan out...with a little patience. Which, I know, isn't exactly in abundance here.

Make it Murton and I'm with you...

Cubs chances in '08? Beats the FUK-U-DO-ME!

by Hugest Canadian Cubs Fan on Jan 28, 2008 9:03 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why have I not heard anything about ..
 

This

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 9:12 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I take it you're talking about...
... this:
Cubs LF Alfonso Soriano caused concern among North Side fans last week when he said, "I don't know how I feel about my leg," in response to a question about the health of his torn quadriceps, which clearly slowed him late last season. The Cubs got only 19 stolen bases out of him in 2007, and if he is still worried about the leg, they won't get many more this year.
All I read into that is that Soriano hasn't had a chance to test out his leg yet. We'll see during spring training.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He better be 100%
 Soriano at 85% healthy and no threat to steal a bag like last year, is not worth half of what he'll be making this season and certainly should not be leading off, if not 100% healthy.

 Guess we'll dind out in a couple weeks, but there should be no reason why he shouldn't be 100% this season.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't be surprised...
Legs and backs are notoriously bad at healing.  I wouldn't be shocked if Soriano isn't fully right yet.

That said, guys like Dave Roberts have had numerous leg injuries and still come back with speed.  I suspect we'll see Soriano at full speed come April.  But he will certainly be a risk for reinjuring the leg.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 9:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Legs are notoriously slow at healing
 in the middle of a season. There should be no reason why it hasn't healed over 4 months. He didn't have surgery or anything on it did he?

 I mean he did finish off the season last year and if the SOB hasn't healed in 4 months time of little or no activity, it never will be 100%.

 

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 9:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Roberts deal leads to another deal
If Pie is dealt Cubs will have to acquire another CF'er and must have a plan, where DeRosa is involved. Lieber's signing has allowed the Cubs to move Marquis for essentially similar money leaving Dempster in the swing position. You have to figure that Lieber's injury was not arm related and he is a proven starter above Marquis.

Thus I think the deal is Marquis-Gallagher and not Pie or Colvin but Patterson. McPhail is looking to add a 5-tool, CF, SS, SP and prospect SP. Patterson is a CF'er and try to deal for SS.

Roberts minus Patterson-Marquis-Gallagher would mean that DeRosa would be available for someone like Chone or Freel

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Jan 28, 2008 9:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not likely
 All these Figgins rumors are half baked ideas by Cub fans and bored bloggers. If anyone gets traded on the Angels, it'll be GMJ. Why on earth would the Angles give up Figgins for Derosa? Figgins can do everything Derosa does, but better. It'd take more than Derosa to get Figgins.

 Frel just doesn't make sense to me why the Reds would trade Freel in their own division. THe Reds think they have a legitimate chance of winning this Division with the team they have and with the upgrades they've made this past off season.

 If Pie is indeed traded, I imagine it'd be for a SS or SP, not a part of any deal for Roberts.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 9:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see the Roberts deal
without either Pie or Colvin.  Numerous people have mentioned that Patterson would be the CF to send.  It's unclear whether he can play CF.  If he can't, he's likely a below average offense corner outfielder.  

I could see Colvin/Gallagher/Marquis possibly getting it done.    

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2008 9:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Way too much.
If Pie doesn't pan out, Colvin should get a shot at CF in 2009 -- I wouldn't trade him, not yet, anyway.

Why is it that people are so hot for Roberts, anyway? I see him as a marginal upgrade over what we already have. Yes, he hits LH. Yes, he has some speed. So? Is he worth THAT much?

I say no.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 9:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not saying I would do it either
but that's my best guess at what might be in the works.  

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2008 9:32 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Colvin yes
Pie no. If they do indeed still want Pie, tell 'em to take a hike and see what the price for Greene is.
I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 9:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't tune in
but can we get a recap of anything important?
"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Jan 28, 2008 9:49 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

this is what I got of the prosportsdaily board
referring to what Kenney said:

"Talked about the renovations to Wrigley, auctioning off the 70 new seats, & the Cubs are working on 2 big trades & both are close to being done. Also gave Chicagoplayer a shout out near the end of the interview."

can anyone confirm this?

by Rezze21 on Jan 28, 2008 10:17 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Kenney...
basically came out and said they're gonna be challenging the scalper market (scalper is my term) by doing the seat auction. He seems to validate it because the seats are new ones. He overtly referenced how many storefronts there are on Addison east of the ballpark that house the 'secondary' ticket market. He also stated he's thought of this for the 5 years he's been in charge of the team. IMHO this is nothing but capturing the secondary market better than they've previously done.

He reiterated the $120M+ payroll and sidestepped trade/acquisition rumors, including Santana. He did however state there are 2 big moves that Hendry is working on and could be nearing completion. For obvious reasons, he downplayed any roster-related topics Waddle was asking about.

He reiterated Wrigley Co. isn't paying for the name (duh) and their naming rights could be north of the $20M/yr for 20yrs Citi/Mets have agreed upon. He also mentioned the sale of the park to the Ill Sports Authority and the 30yr agreement "forcing" the new owner to agree to. He mentioned that is the #1 business thing to address. He also mentioned renovations such as wider concourses and more/larger bathrooms. I don't know how that'll get done.

PSL's didn't get discussed that I can remember.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 28, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

let the speculation begin...
possibilities:
Roberts
Greene

long shots:
Figgins

by Rezze21 on Jan 28, 2008 10:34 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My fear is that we will get
Roberts and Marlon Byrd instead.

by davidalanu on Jan 28, 2008 11:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

sherrill taking physical as well
Like to see Macfail deny these reports now

 

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 10:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

As the article said...
... he can't confirm anything due to tampering rules.

If the Orioles get Jones, why would they then be interested in any of the Cubs outfield prospects?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 10:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh you bet
and that will totally leverage Hendry in different directions. My take on that if Bedard does go out west, the O's will target Cubs players in a Roberts-only trade that will make Hendry back off.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 28, 2008 10:29 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because
the Cubs are the only team interested in Roberts and have no worthwhile infield prospects available for trade?  Outfield and pitching is what the Cubs have.  I suspect MacPhail is looking for the best he can get and he'll worry about position if/when they develop.    

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

At one point the Indians
were said to be in on Roberts, and supposedly with a better package of prospects.  The Cubs have been most closely tied to Roberts, though.

The team I'm surprised that hasn't been in on Roberts is the White Sox.  Seems like he'd be a good fit there also.  Not sure if Trader Kenny has any prospects left to deal.

by davidalanu on Jan 28, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's precisely why the Roberts deal
 depends on the finalization of the Bedard deal. Obviously the Cubs and Orioles have discussed certain "packages" based on what the orioles got for Bedard, it only makes sense. Hence the earlier reporsts of having the Cubs in talks with the Orioles in a 9 for 2 player deal.

 So, then after the Bedard deal is finalized, like you said, the Orioles probably wouldn't be as interested in pie but quite possibly still be interested in Colvin or maybe Murton.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't see them...
... interested in another OF if they do get Jones.

So, maybe the poster a couple above is right -- they'll come back to Hendry with another ridiculous demand and he'll say no.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 10:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Anything's possible
 with the Orioles, but I have to believe that the Roberts deal is on hold until the Bedard deal is complete and that Hendry and Macphail have tossed around different packages based on what the Orioles got for Bedard and maybe they've agreed on a deal and just waiting for the players to pass physicals.

 My point is, if Macphail all of a sudden says, "you know what, I'll only do this deal if you add in this player" or adds in certain packages that they haven't already discussed, Hendry would tell him to stick it where the sun don't shine. It's just bad business for Macphail to do something like that this late in the game. Especially since it seems like the Cubs are really the only ones interested in Roberts or atleast will give up the most for Roberts.

 We'll see though, but I really believe that's how it's gonna go down and that Roberts will be a Cub before ST.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Kane
Isn't that Kane applauding after a truly horrendous performance by his new bride?
PERRY!!!!

by Goat Whisperer on Jan 28, 2008 10:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah . . .
Doesn't exactly fit the context, does it?

In that movie, Kane's trying desperately to prop up a performance that doesn't deserve it.  But he can't accept the rejection so he applauds violently to get others to do so.  Look at that anger!

by hoosiercubbie on Jan 28, 2008 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL
Well, that might fit the Roberts situation quite well, actually.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 5:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What about
Brian Anderson as a cheap platoon partner for Pie in CF? Used to be a good prospect for the Sox across town...rotoworld was speculating that he might be dealt...

Should also come cheaper than Byrd, who the Rangers are way overpricing...

D-LEE!

by airweino on Jan 28, 2008 11:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I think the Rangers may come around...
it seems awfully idiotic to value Byrd as they have been.  Either they come around or we look elsewhere to trade Murton.

I like Murton but I may try to straight up him for Byrd again before moving on.

MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Jan 28, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

beyond idiotic
Marlon Byrd is 3/4 the player Matt Murton is and is under less control...

the idea of Murton for Byrd straight up is a ripoff, let alone asking for more pitching prospects along with it...

UGH

Murton for Byrd would be like trading Scot Moore for Trachsel

trading a decent (not tremendous) chip for something completely useless

last year was only the 2nd year in his career he had a Slugging % above .380

.380!!!!!!!!

his BABIP was .363 last year... its almost exclusively luck driven

i hate the idea of Marlon Byrd, much like i hated the idea of Steve Trachsel, and i have a particular affection for Murton... so this one REALLY rubs me the wrong way

please just stop, we had a great offseason

no more moves

the only way we could've significantly upgraded is landing bedard

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 28, 2008 12:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Completely Agree
I posted these stats a few days ago, but here they are again:
For each player, the numbers are 2007/Career

DeRosa:
BA:293/278
OBP:371/341
Slug:420/408

Roberts:
BA:290/281
OBP:377/351
Slug:432/409

If we trade for Roberts we only moderately upgrade our 2B position.

As has been pointed out, the Cubs don't really need a super utility player since they have everyday players at the positions that DeRosa is most capable of playing.

If the Cubs acquire Roberts, they will pay ALOT for a marginal upgrade.  They will then essentially need to deal Murton or DeRosa, as the only likely spot either will play much (barring injury of course) is RF with Dome spelling Pie in CF.  If they trade DeRosa, they would also be well advised to bring in a reasonable backup for 3B (an important slot on the team, but probably not itself important enough for that to be DeRosa's only job).

At this point, I would rather sit tight, and hold the trading chips to see how they develop for the Cubs, or, possibly use them for an important midseason trade.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple of other benefits
One, a true leadoff hitter.  This may be something that Piniella is particularly high on, I don't know.  

Second, the ABs that DeRosa would get are AB's that would go to the likes of Cedeno.  In the OF, probably coming from Murton (if he remains), or Daryle Ward.  Ward is fine offensively, but at 1B or the OF, DeRosa is a serious upgrade defensively.

So the upside to acquiring Roberts is more than just  a slight upgrade to second base, it's a huge upshot for the bench, and Piniella's ability to rest starters.

by davidalanu on Jan 28, 2008 1:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the problem with that
is the chain of AB's...

Murton is a better career hitter than Roberts

so if Roberts is greater than DeRosa, but DeRosa isn't greater than Murton then we're moderately upgrading at 2B for likely downgrades in all the subsequent bench ABs (assuming the vast majority go to Ward and Murton)

if the vast majority are going to Cedeno then its a completely different story

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 28, 2008 1:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also...
DeRosa is an everyday player.  It takes a special skill to be able to perform at the same or at a higher level as a bench player when compared to getting regular AB.  Ward has proven to fill the role of a bench player well, DeRosa has not.

Thus, it is dangerous to assume that DeRosa sitting on the bench waiting to give some one a rest, cover for an injury, or PH, will perform at anywhere near the level at which he has performed as a regular.

Thus, to me, he must be traded if the Cubs land Roberts.  The big disadvantage of course being that the Cubs lose the flexibility that he offers.

This isn't about being pro DeRosa, or anti Roberts, I simply don't see that much of an upgrade, and it will cost alot to land Roberts.  The cost in prospects could hurt the Cubs as soon a this year in terms of the performance of the traded players or at least in terms of trading chips for mid season.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Once again...
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LSA is getting a little old (NT)
"There's nothing wrong with this team that more hitting, more pitching, more fielding, and more hitting couldn't help." Bill Buckner

by Rotodaddy on Jan 29, 2008 5:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm in favor...
of letting Derosa be the starting SS if we land Roberts and letting Theriot be the sub. Then you are talking of an upgrade of Roberts over Theroit.

Roberts:
BA:290/281
OBP:377/351
Slug:432/409

Theriot:
BA:266/276
OBP:326/341
Slug:346/379

by cubswin14 on Jan 28, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think
the point of getting Roberts has less to do with Theriot/Derosa themselves, and more with the fact that Piniella wants a left-handed top-of-the-order type player to hit second.

If they keep Theriot hitting second, we would all hate it because Theriot is the worst hitter on the starting roster. But I think Piniella hates it because he would be right-handed 1-4.

by jazzypete on Jan 28, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If we don't get Roberts
...I would like to see Fukudome hit 2 even though Lou already said he wanted him to hit 5. He is supposed to be a very high OBP guy and would seem to fit perfectly there.

The only problem with this would be a lot of 1,2,3 innings w/ Theriot, Pie and pitcher hitting 7,8,9.

by cubswin14 on Jan 28, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There's got to be more to it than that
Piniella's more pragmatic than trading prospects just for someone that hits from the other side of the plate.

Like others, I also think there is a plan to have either Roberts or DeRosa play SS.

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 28, 2008 2:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

re: I'm in favor...
Or giving Roberts a shot at SS and just leave DeRo where he is.
Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Jan 28, 2008 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I totally agree
It's hard enough being prepared to play multiple positions (i.e., the "utility infielder").  It's hard enough hitting when ABs are sporadic.  (If it were easy, we wouldn't be paying Darlye Ward $1.5M for 150 ABs.)  It's almost impossible to be good both offensively and defensively with sporadic playing time.  That's why the so-called "super utility guys" (Figgins, Freel, DeRo in 2006 and 2007) were everyday players.  Their bat stays in rhythm and they only have to worry about defense.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 28, 2008 1:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you serious?
DeRosa has been a utility guy his whole career!  The idea of him playing just one position is different from what he's always done.  He is the best person on the team to fill the super-utility role.

by davidalanu on Jan 28, 2008 2:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I love when Derosa lovers
 compare Dero and Roberts how they coincedentally leave out the fact that Roberts is as equal to Derosa in every single category except SB's and it's obviously not even close in that category.

 Also, that Roberts is a Switch Hitting LEad off hitter and Derosa is so not.

Roberts is an upgrade over Derosa Cub fans admit it. And I really don't care if the Cubs have to give up a couple overrated prospects to upgrade that position either. Bottomline is he's an upgrade over Derosa. Having said that, why does everyone think that if the Cubs get Roberts, that Derosa is going to suddenly not play anymore? For all we know, maybe the Cubs want Derosa and Roberts in the same lineup everyday. Not too mention ARam will need days off to keep him healty.

Get over Cubbie and Derosa lovers, the addition of Roberts makes the Cubs a much better ballclub on Opening Day. It's that freeking simple. It's absolutely baffling to see Cub fans crying over something so trivial.

Derosa will get his ab's. Roberts would make the Cubs so much better than they are right here, right now.

After years of listening to Cub fans and their GD untouchable overrated prospects, no matter who the Cubs would be getting and how "terrible" it would be to trade away the future, is laughable. Year after year it's the same thing. Remember when some Cub fans said they wouldn't give up Pie for any deal involving AROD??? Or how some CUb fans actually think Theriot is better than Greene?

 The Cubs now have a legitimte scouting director and I trust him with future prospects over any of these other prospects.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

DeRo vs Roberts
A couple of points:
  1. I am not arguing that Roberts isn't an upgrade over DeRosa.  If I had a choice between the two, I'll take Roberts.
  2. Yes, I left out SB.  However, I view this as a pretty marginally useful stat.  Roberts has stolen more than 30 bases twice.  His 50 last year were freakishly high for him, and I would bet that he doesn't steal that many in the remaining 2 years on his contract combined.
  3. What does it mean that he is a "lead-off" hitter?  Soriano is currently our lead off hitter, and it seems unlikely that that will change, no matter how much Cub Fans want it to be so.
  4. To me, a good lead off hitter is one who can put the ball in play, has a high OBP, etc.  Stealing bases?  Marginally useful at best.  Furthermore, with sluggers coming up in the Cub lineup there are trememdous disincentives to steal bases.
Let me reitterate, I am not anti-Roberts or blindly pro-DeRosa.  I just don't see enough of a difference between them that would justify sending good prospects/players to the Orioles in exchange.  If we could trade DeRosa or Murton and Marquis or Dempster (possibly ina 3-way deal), I'd be thrilled.  However, I don't see that happening.

You can spout that Cub fans overvalue their prospects.  That is often true.  Though to me the only thing more dangerous than overvaluing your prospects is undervaluing them.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

DeRo
Has been a utility player his hole life and he can play a lot of positions.  He is more valuable to Cubs that way.  He also has a past of injuries and is 33 so I doubt he can play everyday.  He will get 450-500 ab's as a "super-sub".  Lou will find ways to use him in the right situations.  
PC load letter, what the f*** does that mean?

by cubfaninSTL on Jan 28, 2008 2:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I've undervalued Cub prospects
 for a long time now, and with the exception of Willis, I've always been right. The one prsopect that I bought into the hype was Hee Seop Choi. I legitimately thought he'd be good, until I saw him with my own eyes that is.

zero of these prospects that I've seen being discussed, blow me away and make me think they're untouchable. Ironically the one that I do like, Petrick, when I said I thought he might be good after seeing him pitch last season, I pretty much got slammed on this very board for saying that.

 Oh myear, Zambrano was another guy who before I saw him I thought was another "overhyped" pitcher, until I saw him pitch against Atlanta in '02 I believe. I knew with the action on his sinker he could be pretty good.

 Other guys who I thought might be decent after seeing them with my own eyes were: Wellemeyer and that's about it lol.

Again, now that the Cubs have a legitimate director of scouting in Wilken, do I have any hope in future Cub prospects. That also could be another reason why the Cubs are considering some of these prospects is that Wilken has seen them and thinks that it'd be best to get something for them now while they have some value as opposed to hoding on to them and have them play out their roles as journeyman MLB players.

CubfaninSTL is right too... Derosa is valuable as a utility type guy. He can play anywhere really. He could even play RF when Fuku needs a day off. Roberts does not mean the end of Derosa which is what annoys me the most about seeing these "comparisons" between the 2. Roberts makes the Cubs a better team. Period.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Cub Prospects
Again, I am not opposed to trades.  I am not opposed to Brian Roberts as  Cub.  I would say that DeRosa as a bench player is a waste in that he has the value of an everyday player, and the Cubs would be better off trading on that value than letting it sit on the bench.

Also, I am not opposed to trading prospects.  But why should we throw away our prospects on a player who will only marginally improve the team?  Had the Cubs been able to land Bedard or some other upgrade of an SP, I would be thrilled.  Had the Cubs put together a package to compete with teh White Sox for Cabrera I would have been happy.

However, 2B is really not a weakness, and giving up some over our top prospects, who have value, just doesn't make much sense to me.

Granted, I don't know what it would take to get Roberts, but my gut tells me it would be more than it is worth.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 2:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Again
 Who says that Derosa would be riding pine? Who says that between RF, 2B, SS and 3B, that he couldn't get 400 ab's? People on this board make it sound like being versatile and being valuable as a player that can play virtually every position, is a bad thing.

 Who says he wouldn't be the Cubs starting SS or even Roberts at SS and Derosa at 2B?

Derosa would still be very valuable to the Cubs, no matter what. My thinking is Derosa + Roberts makes the Cubs better than just Derosa and no Roberts.

Roberts would lead off or at the very least, hit 2nd in the order and provide OBP and the underrated aspect of being a threat to steal a base with the middle of the order coming up.

Derosa will still get plenty of ab's whatever role the Cubs decide for him. Players like Derosa who can play any position, find a way to play and get their ab's.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

SS
If either DeRosa or Roberts were pencilled in to play SS, the calculus obviously changes.  In that case, there would need to be questions asked about the suitability of either to play the position.

I am not expert enough to be a judge of that, so I have no opinion.  I know that neither has played much SS in recent years, though I also know that both have played along side some more entrenched SS as well.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 28, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Completely agree
people here seem to think there is no chance any of our starters will go down with an injury at any point of the season...with DeRosa on the bench you have great insurance at 4 (and maybe 5 w/ 1B) positions. Right now are sub at 3 of those positions would be Ronny Cedano

by DC Cubbie on Jan 28, 2008 6:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano is currently our lead off hitter...
...because we currently have no other legitimate options.

If we trade for Roberts, aha...  now we have an option.  That's not to say Roberts will bat lead off, but he could.  At the very least, it gives Lou another option.  And IMHO, giving a manager like Lou lots of options is a good thing.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 28, 2008 3:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree with this...
we certainly know Piniella is willing to make changes.  Whether or not he'd make a change at the leadoff spot again is up for debate, but you just never know.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just commenting on Roberts
While SBs are not a big deal, they do matter, combined with baserunning.

Roberts, the last 3 years, has also had a high OBP. OPS and OPS+ underrates Roberts, since in the current offensive environment, OBP is very valuable, between 1.5-1.8 times the value of slugging, in general.

Last 3 years, from 2005, using Batting runs above average from baseball prospectus, which takes into account SBs and GIDPs, properly weights OBP, Roberts, offensively, 34 runs above average, 3, 20.

Derosa, last 3 years, BRAA, from 2005, 0, 4, 5.

Over the last 3 years, Roberts has been 57 runs above average offensively.

Derosa, 9 runs above average offensively.

If you believe that 2006 represents the "true" talent level for both of them, then there is little difference between the 2. Otherwise, if you take an average of the last 3 years, it looks like the difference is about 15 runs, not huge, but significant in a close race for the playoffs.

This is just a comment on Roberts vs Derosa, not on what Roberts will cost.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Jan 29, 2008 1:47 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This post above is the one that deserves the LSA
Thank you, rfloh.

In addition, I think you all are looking at this wrong.  You shouldn't be asking "What does Roberts give over DeRosa?"  The Cubs aren't trying to upgrade 2B as much as they are trying to upgrade the top of their lineup.  The real question is "What does Roberts batting 2nd give over Theriot batting 2nd?"

And the answer is .050 more pts of OBP ahead of Lee, Ramirez, and Fukudome.

Yes, I know you all have better lineups than Lou that can get OBP w/o Roberts and someone will want to post the obligatory "DeRosa is a perfect 2-hole hitter" creed, but Lou doesn't think so.  So.  Is having someone on base ahead of our best hitters worth Marquis, Colvin, and Patterson/Cedeno?  I think the answer is a clear, clear yes.

*** On Sabermetric Probation ***

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 5:44 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

OBP
I am not sure how you came up with Roberts having 0.050 pts better OBP than DeRosa.
Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 29, 2008 7:02 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He didn't come up with that..
read it again.  He (or she) said Roberts gives 0.050 more OBP points over THERIOT, not DeRosa.  It was said in reference to having Roberts bat 2nd and not Theriot.

by SouthernCub on Jan 29, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

kind of selective
the sample you're taking includes Roberts two career seasons, which are out of line with the rest of his major league and minor league production

Roberts also fell off considerably in the 2nd half last year, so really its one and a half seasons that data is completely living off of

plus including the last 3 seasons takes into account a year in which DeRosa was a part time player

I agree Roberts is a better offensive player, i think most arguing against Roberts believe he is a better player than DeRosa. Its just that most of us also don't believe the difference between DeRosa and Roberts is our starting CF and #1 pitching prospect...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 7:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I do believe your take
has sold me.  I have been on the fence so to speak until now where I think that We need to look to upgrade another position.  DeRo has earned the starting role, wherever that may be and we should try to upgrade SS perhaps.
MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Jan 29, 2008 8:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LSA
We have two potential black holes in the lineup (SS and CF) and two potential black holes in the rotation (Lieber and Marquis/Dempster).  We need to use our limited number of tradeable prospects to improve those areas, not to make a small gain at 2B.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 29, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok - so who are you going to get for SS
that bats second in the lineup?  I don't think Furcal is available, so who?  Khalil Greene keeps getting mentioned, but he's one hitter who I'd less like having batting 2nd than Theriot.

Buried in some of these Cubs articles has been the idea that Roberts might get moved back to SS by the Cubs, that they would at least look at that.  Everything we said about KazMat potentially being a SS and not a 2B applies equally to Roberts.

But again, my major point is that the Cubs are looking at this totally differently than we have.  They have said, "We have a black hole at the 2-hole in the lineup.  How do we fill that with a lefty OBP guy?"  If that is the question, then how do you answer it better than Brian Roberts?

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 1:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll use the ever-annoying LSA here...
This is the key.  It definitely seems that the Cubs are less concerned with upgrading CF or SS than they are with finding a LH OBP guy who can bat 2nd and break up the RH bats.  And while I'm sure they'd love to find an ace starter (as would I as that's our biggest need), those guys just aren't readily available.

by SouthernCub on Jan 29, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

did i miss something?
or didn't we sign a Japanese guy that bats left handed is a high OBP candidate

what am i missing here?

i thought we got that guy...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And they want to bat him 5th...
Even AFTER we got that guy, Piniella was talking about adding a LH speed guy.  I'm pretty sure he envisioned the LH speed guy as the #2 hitter and Fukudome as the #5 hitter.

by SouthernCub on Jan 29, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah its obvious thats what he "wants"
but is that in the best interest of the club?

i mean Pineilla can't just get everything he wants here...

he talked about wanting a LH high OBP guy as the main priority, we got that!

if you want to bat him 2nd, you'd probably have the best lineup we could put out there something like:

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
DeRosa
Soto
Pie
Theriot
P

Fukudome is more of a prototypical 2 hitter than a 5 hitter given the OBP and the lack of elite power

and sure we'd be a better lineup with Roberts at the 2 hole, but the prices that have been thrown around in trade ideas for a slightly above league average 2B with a career OBP around .350, doesn't seem like a huge upgrade over the current 2B we have with a career .341 OBP...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

"Slightly above league average"?!?
We are talking about Brian Roberts, the Oriole All-Star, right?  Did I miss something and we started talking about Ryan Roberts?

Because the Brian Roberts I know is one of the best 2B in MLB right now.
In 2007, he was the third best 2B by VORP.
In 2006, he was the sixth best.
In 2005, he was The Best.

Now, there is a case to be made that he's not worth the price we might have to pay, but let's not take a short cut to that case by underrating Brian Roberts.

Let's also remember that the Cubs think Fukudome has more power than many of us here have expected.  If Fukudome is the .900 OPS hitter Nate Silver has suggested, then Dome'll do just fine batting 4th/5th.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 5:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

There is a limit...
...to how good of a second baseman you can really be. That's because if you're any better than that, you're a shortstop. Teams are willing to overlook a lot of defensive deficiencies if you can hit (look at Hanley Ramirez).

And you have to remember defense as well. Roberts is a good defensive baseman but he's not scandalously good. So that has to be taken into account.

Also - VORP is a counting stat, and Roberts hits leadoff, which means he gets more at-bats than a lot of other second basemen. He shouldn't deserve extra credit simply based on how his team used him.

Last season, he was probably between 1.5 and 2 wins above the average second baseman, given offense and defense. That's good, but that's also the second best season of his career. "Slightly above average" could be underrating Roberts - I'm willing to debate that. (I'm sortof on the fence on the matter.) But it's not a radical misstatement.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 6:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that pretty much sums it up
at least everything i was going to post

the reason i believe it is because i think 05 and 07 are more outliers than anything else given his entire track record

the focus has been on how good he's been in those 2 seasons, or over the last 3 seasons and while he's been phenomenal in both those seasons i just personally believe the rest of his career is a better indicator of how he's going to do in the future

the truth probably lies somewhere in between and maybe "slightly above average" is selling him slightly short, but i don't think its THAT far off

Brian Roberts isnt a star

he's had 1.5 seasons in which he's played like a star and 7.5 seasons at various levels that he hasn't performed like a star

i feel like the 7.5 seasons might be more indicative than the 1.5

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 7:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Fine. Let's really look at Roberts closely.
Claim:  Roberts has only been good for 1.5 seasons.

Discussion:  
What makes for good?  For the past 3 years, Roberts' OBP was over .350 5 out of 6 halves.  Given that the Cubs are trying to find a 2-hole hitter, OBP should be the primary qualification, should it not?  Compare this to Rafael Furcal (who I don't think is available, but is touted as a better alternative to Roberts), his OBP has been over .350 2 out of 6 halves over the past 3 years.

So, why was Roberts "not good" from 2001-2003?  Well, he was 23-25 years old and not getting regular playing time.  I don't think it's good projecting to skew a 2008 projection for a 30 year-old based off of inconsistent, early playing time from 5-7 years ago.

Why was Roberts "not good" in 2006?  Well, he still put up a .286/.347/.410 line, which is the best we could have expected from Kazuo Matsui had that plan worked out.  But there was another factor that may have hampered Roberts that year.  At the end of his stellar 2005 year, Roberts suffered a dislocated left elbow, torn tendon and torn ulnar collateral ligament in a collision with Bubba Crosby.  He underwent surgery on 9/30/05 and did not play a spring training game in 2006 till 3/21/06.

Counter claim:  Over the past three years, Roberts has been good one year, very good in the most recent year, and great three years ago.

Claim:  The rest of his career is a better indicator of how he's going to do in the future.

Discussion:  So, the year after a major arm injury, the three years of inconsistent playing time during his ages 23-25 years, and his first full year of playing time, where he still managed a .344 OBP in the AL East at age 26 are better indicators than his most recent year and his most recent three year average?  Really?

Let's take a semi-comparable player.  In his first three years, ages 23-25, his playing time wasn't really consistent till the last year.  His lines were:
.125/.125/.500
.180/.196/.360  
.268/.304/.432
Then, he really got to play 2B and put up two good years:
.300/.332/.547
.290/.338/.525  
But then at age 28, just like Brian Roberts, he took a step back:
.280/.324/.484
And at age 29, he took a step back forward, although a low batting average masked it:
.268/.309/.512
After that year, a lot of people predicted that he was going to take another big step back in his age 30 season, but that's when Alfonso Soriano stepped up and won himself a huge contract, returning to his good year type performances:
.277/.351/.560  
Those first three years don't tell us much about Soriano, when we look to predict him going forward.  And sometimes you need to look at little more closely at the past three years.  It's the same for Roberts.

Counter claim:  The best indicator for Roberts' future production are his last 3 years.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 10:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Three years, MAYBE four...
...is all you ever really need to project future performance.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 10:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So the best second baseman
Isn't as good as the worst shortstop?

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 29, 2008 7:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not that simple, for several reasons.
The biggest reason, of course, is that teams have to fill both positions, and talent distribution isn't equal. Normally, the second-best middle infielder on the team is the second baseman; on teams with an exceedingly good shortstop you can have a second baseman that would be the starting shortstop on many other teams.

And players have a tendency to get typecast; once you've spent a few years at second base in the majors you're likely to stay there the rest of your career, or at least until you move down the defensive spectrum (say, the outfield).

And there's arm strength to consider - there is a certain bare minimum of arm strength needed to make the majors as a shortstop; if you can't meet those needs, you can have the best range and hands on the planet, but you'll still be playing second base.

But the selection process for second basemen is such that you're not likely to find the best players in the game there. Occasionally it happens, as Cubs fans are well aware.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 8:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

the Silver projection seems silly....
as has been debated over here many times, projecting a player who hasnt been as good as Matsui in the Japanese leagues to suddenly be way better seems a bit silly...

for what its worth i have Fukudome at .286/.369/.443 an .811 OPS

i'm not BP or CHONE'S or anything else... but thats what i got

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 7:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Matsui didn't get to hit against...
...weaker NL pitching in Wrigley Field, which is a great park for left-handed doubles hitters. You have to adjust for context.

And remember: Matsui's first season was the outlier; the rest of his career was well above the PECOTA for Fukudome. I think the projection systems are viewing Matsui's first season as a fluke, and not an adjustment period. If you disagree, then by all means adjust the projection accordingly. But don't just discard the projection altogether.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 7:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that's fair
but we're also talking about a pretty significant difference in the two players production in japan

we're talking about 70 points in OPS

matsui's averaged around an .860 OPS in his US career

he's only topped a .900 OPS once

and the difference in leagues wasnt as vast as it is now. The Al East had Pedro, Halladay and not much else as far as tough opposing pitchers, seriously take a look at some of those staffs (Ponson, Hentgen, Jason Johnson, Cory Lidle, Mark Hendrickson, Doug Davis,Victor Zambrano, Doug Davis, Joe Kennedy) I'm willing to bet heavily the adjusted ERA for the AL East wasn't close to what it is now

then add in Matsui was 2 years younger when he came over as well

i just dont see how all that makes Fukudome on average 50 points worth of OPS better than a guy that was 70 points better than him in another league

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 8:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We can simply look it up.
The AL-average ERA (translated to Yankee Stadium) in 2003 was 4.39. The NL-average ERA (translated to Wrigley Field) that year was 4.33. About the same... until you figure in the DH, which is probably worth about half a run per game, making the AL a 3.89 ERA. That's a sizable difference. And I don't know that the relatively small difference in schedules due to divisional play offsets the massive difference in league quality.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 8:42 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ok so that difference
if you say the difference in league era's was approximately 0.43

does that make up for the difference in the two players natural abilities?

and if so does it make SO much of a difference that Fukudome suddenly becomes a 50-60 point better statistical hitter than Matsui??

basically does the 0.43 difference in ERA equate to 120 points in OPS???

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 9:06 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A few things -
  1. Matsui and Fukudome are not identical players; Fukudome has a different game and his skills may translate differently than Matsui's.
  2. My original point stands - sure you may not expect much from Fukudome, but there are respectable sources who do expect him to have good SLG.  Most importantly, the Cubs believe he has the power to be a cleanup hitter.
Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 9:31 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Was.
Last year, the league average ERA in Wrigley was 4.66. That's a 0.77 difference in runs per game between contexts, which is rather substantial. Now, not all of that is pitching - some of that is park factors.

But there's something like a .060 difference in OPS between the NL and the AL, so when PECOTA says he's a .900 OPS, that's more like an .840 OPS in the AL. This ignores the specific park factors of Wrigley and how they interact with Fukudome's talents - he's a left-handed doubles hitter in a park well suited to that; Yankee Stadium actually depresses doubles for left-handed hitters.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 29, 2008 9:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, you can bat Fukudome 2nd
but then who bats 4th/5th?  And where are you going to find a left-handed SS who can bat 5th?

Anyway, it's irrelevant, since, as bababenti posted, the Cubs see Fukudome batting 4th/5th.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It is standard
practice to look at the last 3 years for evaluating players. The ZIPS projection system is weighted along the lines of 7-4-3-1, from the most recent year to 4 years ago. The MARCEL projection system looks at a player's last 3 MLB seasons.

Would you evaluate Jose Reyes based on his career OPS numbers? Greg Maddux based on his career numbers?

"Roberts also fell off considerably in the 2nd half last year, so really its one and a half seasons that data is completely living off of"

If you throw out the good parts of their season, most players will look worse. Just as if you throw out the bad parts of their season, players will look better.

Jose Reyes also fell off considerably in the 2nd half of the year. He looks much worse if you just look at the 2nd half. Conversely, David Wright EXPLODED in the 2nd half. He looks much worse if you just look at the 1st half.

"plus including the last 3 seasons takes into account a year in which DeRosa was a part time player"

I'm aware of his part time season. In the 2005 season, Derosa had a below league average park adjusted OPS, ie OPS+ of 97. 100 is average. 97 means that his park adjusted OPS was 3 percent below league average.

Since Batting Runs above average compares players to the league average, even if he had 1000 PAs in 2005, unless Derosa is a great basestealer, which he is not, an OPS around average would still result in him being around 0 runs above average.

Like I said in my post, I was just commenting on Roberts vs Derosa. Not Roberts vs Derosa + Pie + Gallagher. I am basically saying that if all you care is about the short term now, ie the next 1 year, maybe 2 years, then getting Roberts would be a slight improvement. Next year, Pie can probably be replaced with a Kenny Lofton.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Jan 29, 2008 1:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i understand
your points and the reasons for your sampling issues. I work for a fantasy baseball website so I'm fairly versed in projections

My point with Roberts was those 3 years happen to incapsulate the greatest 1.5 year span of his entire career, and sandwiched in between is a full season of a line that is more in line with his previous regular seasons and minor league track record

then on top of that the 2nd half of last year is in line with the 2006 season and the rest of his career

so my point is I don't think we can just assume '05 and '07 are the baseline. I just don't see how they can be? They look more like an anomaly than anything else.

Of course the EXACT same thing could be said for DeRosa, although DeRosa's performance has been slightly more consistnet over the last 1.5 years

and i understand you're just drawing comparison to Roberts and DeRosa and focusing on one year.

But for an argument like that I don't think you necessarily just compare player to player, i think you compare whether that upgrade is a meaningful upgrade in how it allows you to compete with the rest of the top tier teams. Because if you're playing for 1 year and 1 year alone you'd be playing for a title right? Not just making the playoffs..

I feel like emptying the farm for a guy like Bedard would've made some sense because he elevates the team another level in terms of contender status because he's an elite ace. Adding a solid leadoff guy, i don't feel does that

the incremental value Roberts would add doesn't elevate us enough (in my opinion) to justify making that type of move

add in the long-term consequences of dealing off some of your top prospects to acquire him (which is huge considering we have a VERY inflexible payroll situation, long-term escalating contracts with no trade clauses to 30+ yr old players) and it becomes even more of an issue, because we're going to need cost controlled players to take up roster spots very soon to cushion all the high priced talent

does that make more sense?

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 29, 2008 2:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

05 and 07
are 2 years out of the last 3. Sure, they are an anomaly relative to the rest of his career; BUT, by that same token, Greg Maddux' last 3 years are also an anomaly relative to the rest of his career.

Why is 2006 more relevant than 2007? Because it is in line with the rest of his career? But 2007 and 2005 happened. 2007 is the most recent year.

Unless you are aware of some factor, ie he somehow managed to play with a metal bat in 2005 and 2007 and no one noticed, they happened.

Players improve, players decline.

As for his 2007 2nd half, again, unless you are aware of some factor, he no longer was using a metal bat for example, why give it more weight than the rest of 2007? Many players go through slumps, hot streaks, that they don't sustain.

As for the prospects for Roberts, I actually agree with you. I probably overrate prospects. I was just looking at the trade from the extreme short term: 1, maybe 2 years.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Jan 30, 2008 6:53 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

06
We do have a reason to see 06 as an anamoly compared to 06 and 07 - in 06 Roberts was playing with a weakened arm.

But here's a second thought - the case against Roberts seems to be "He's overvalued for his steals which aren't that valuable anyway."  Except that his steals are still valued by those who determine whether or not a free agent is Type A, B, or ungraded.  If the Cubs get two draft picks in two years from letting Roberts walk, then how does the deal look -

Roberts, a player like Josh Donaldson and a player like Tony Thomas
for
Gallagher, Colvin, and Eric Patterson

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 30, 2008 7:27 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

that's a very strong point
the one on FA compensation and if the Cubs had in mind the idea of letting him go at age 32 i'd be much more inclined to do the type of deal mentioned above

i just dont know if that would be the Cubs motto, they like to re-sign their own and paying guys into their mid and late 30's does not seem to be something they're opposed to

so the other side is what if they do that deal and then invest more money into a 32 year old 2B, that's added risk

i think in general you make a really strong point on the draft pick compensation though.

your other points on Roberts i'm just not in agreement with. Comparing him to other bad ideas for 2B like Kaz Matsui don't make the trade a better option. And Furcal is a SS which is completely different since we have a gaping hole at SS. If you can convince me Roberts is intended to be used as a SS then that would be a better argument

as for posting a .350 OBP... Theriot basically did that last year and DeRosa well surpassed that mark...so i don't see why that is such a sticking point for your analysis. If we're really looking to improve with an OBP guy in the 2 hole it should be someone in the .370+ range

here are Roberts splits over the last 4 years:

20041H: .254/.326/.345   .671 OPS/.282 BABIP
20042H: .295/.363/.411   .774 OPS/.348 BABIP

20051H: .345/.416/.591  1.017 OPS/.366 BABIP
20052H: .274/.351/.419   .770 OPS/.310 BABIP

20061H: .296/.361/.383    .744 OPS/.325 BABIP
20062H: .277/.332/.436    .768 OPS/.289 BABIP

20071H: .324/.406/.445    .881 OPS/.359 BABIP
20072H: .247/.341/.415    .756 OPS/.282 BABIP

To me the 1st half of 2005 and 2007 really stand out as the outliers...

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 30, 2008 8:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Responses to the responses
  1. Would Hendry let an age 32 All-Star walk?  That is a relevant question.  We know he was willing to let Clement and Alou walk.  Juan Pierre walked.  I think Hendry has a good record of letting the right guys go and signing long-term the right guys.
  2. Re: comparing to other bad ideas - but Hendry is going to get a lefty-speedy IF, so we have to look around and say - who are the other options?  If we don't get Brian Roberts, we're going to get Felipe Lopez, or someone else.  Again, my continual question, which I'm not getting answered, is who is the better trade target to fill the two-hole?  If you think Chone Figgins is available, well, maybe he is, but the rumors I've read have the Angels only making him "available" for sky high prices (read:  Aramis Ramirez).
  3. Roberts at SS:  I can't convince you that they'd use him there, because I don't know if he has the arm strength to play there, but the idea has been floated in articles printed by the Chicago press.
  4. .350 OBP or .370 OBP:  Sure - I wish we could get 9 players with .370 OBPs.  But that level of OBP is fairly rare.  There were only 67 players (with over 300 PA) last year to accomplish that feat.  Only 20 of them can play middle IF or CF.  Most of those aren't available by trade (think Chase Utley and Grady Sizemore).  Those I think could be available by trade include:  Reggie Willits, Matt Kemp, Orlando Hudson, and Brian Roberts.  When I compare Orlando Hudson and Roberts, I think Roberts is a lot more likely to maintain a .370 OBP coming from the AL East to the NL Central than Hudson, leaving AZ's park.  Kemp looks less likely to be traded now than he did at the end of last year and if Willits is available, well, then, why not trade Pie for Roberts and whatever for Willits and play them both?
  5. "Theriot basically did that [.350 OBP] last year" - his OBP was .326.
Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 30, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

lol
not laughing at your post...i'm laughing at the fact i quickly glanced at Theriot's SLUGGING% and assumed it was his OBP...

my bad on that front you're right.

I think you make some strong points and have enjoyed the back and forth. I think its safe to say the major area we disagree is #2

Just because Hendry or Pineilla or whomever think we MUST get a #2 LH hitter, doesn't mean i'm rooting for it. Is Roberts the best option of the bunch mentioned in terms of absolute value, probably. But the relative value (cost associated with getting him) in my opinion makes him less intriguing. Considering Jim Callis mentioned in his chat today the O's might get a better package of prospects for Roberts than the Twins got for Santana... i really hate the idea

But basically, i don't see this enfatuation with a LH 2 hole hitter. Do i see how it could improve us? YES. Do i think we should do anything to fill that desire no matter what the cost? NO. Do i think filling that hole makes us a World Series candidate? No.

I don't see why Fukudome isn't the LH #2 hitter they were hoping to acquire. Even if he does have more power than I'm projecting, having him hit #2 and having Lee and Ramirez right behind (giving our 4 best hitters the most PA's) doesn't seem like a bad idea to me...

and I personally don't see why Soto or DeRosa can't fill the 5 and 6 holes adequately. If we're leaving them at 6 and 7 to drive in Fukudome hitting 5th, why cant they hit 5th to drive in Aramis and DLee????

I agree Roberts would make us better, but i HATE the cost associated with it (when you're talking Pie/Gallagher or Gallagher/Colvin when Gallagher is one of TWO pitching prospects we have that can help right now AND we happen to need back end pitching depth).

I think the marginal upgrade we get from Roberts is below the value of whatever we give up and I don't think Roberts takes us to another echelon of contender, the only type of guy that could do that would be a #1 starter to put in front of Z

In the end if the argument is we should be rooting for the Cubs to acquire Roberts because of all the rectangular pegs Hendry is going to try to fit into square holes, he's the closest to a square... i'm not gonna buy in

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 30, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wanted to let you have the last word
but you brought up a couple interesting things -
  1. what Callis said - yeah, I wondered if after the Santana trade if the Cubs can say to the O's - you're not getting Pie/Colvin.  The Cubs are in a position of strength.
  2. I was reviewing the Marlins rotation today and I was remembering how I hated how much we gave up for Juan Pierre.  Maybe some of those guys will turn out better than they have so far, but I'm not sure we lost that much.  Hendry has generally done a good job of identifying talent - which to keep and which to let go.  Let's see who really gets let go before we get too bent out of shape about this trade.  I, for one, am not convinced that Gallagher is someone we will miss.
Less interesting stuff, but to answer your questions - they want LH hitters breaking up Sori-Lee-Rami.  That's why DeRo and Soto don't cut the mustard.  Given that framework, I love the idea of Brian Roberts hitting 2nd and I fear the idea of Christian Guzman hitting 2nd.

But for fun, since you've stuck with this conversation so long - here's how I'd do it (working as best I can in Hendry's framewor):
Sori LF
Dome RF
DLee 1B
Rami 3B
WILSON BETEMIT SS
Soto C
DeRo 2B
Pie CF

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 30, 2008 9:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

haha
i do like the Wilson Betemit idea! Although i'd have to check some of his fielding numbers to make sure he could still play SS

but that's a pretty good name to throw out there.

I personally just dont believe if we strike out on Roberts, Hendry's going to go after Christian Guzman or Felipe Lopez, or anyone else that terrible... but maybe i'm wrong

its interesting you seem to be giving Hendry more credit for identifying which players to not trade away and less credit in analyzing major league talent

i seem to be giving him more credit in analyzing major league talent and less credit in his ability to know who to give away

i think the most recent history probably sides with you on this argument given some of the major league signings we've had (Burnitz, JJ, Neifi, Macias, etc) that have been dreadful and the fact we haven't traded anyone to great away

although i'd still suggest Pinto, Nolasco, and Mitre are useful even if they arent going to be stars

by DartmouthCubsFan on Jan 31, 2008 7:48 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

About Pinto, Nolasco & Mitre...
... it's not how good they're going to be, but what their perceived value was in the offseason of 2005-2006. They could have probably brought us far more than Juan Pierre, based on what people THOUGHT they were going to be two years ago.

I think Hendry would admit that was one of his worst, if not THE worst, deals.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 31, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The dirty little secret
is that Theriot's not really good at SS anyway.  I don't think Betemit, especially if given some time to get used to playing there again, would be worse than Theriot.  If he gets in good shape, he could easily be better than Theriot.

One other thing - Yes, Pinto, Nolasco, Mitre, Gallagher, etc. are useful, but they are more useful to teams who have less money than the Cubs.  The Cubs can afford to go buy a Mitre or three.  Those are exactly the kinds of players we shouldn't get too attached to and be glad if Hendry can bring back an impact player for them.  Juan Pierre wasn't, but Hendry gave Dusty what he wanted.  Brian Roberts - well, we'll see.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Jan 31, 2008 7:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

DeRosa and Murton have been
essentially the same hitter the past couple of years, and I would much rather have DeRosa in the field.

by davidalanu on Jan 28, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mariners apparently once this deal goes down
Have a 1 year deal in place with Wilkerson

 Macphail can keep denying all he wants, but the pieces are falling into place, finally.

 

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 11:56 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

derosa
if the cubs trade derosa it be one of the stupidest moves ever. In my opinion he was the mvp of the team last year. He can hit well and field pretty good. If we get roberts and move derosa to ss im cool with that but getting rid of derosa would be terrible. If the cubs do that i gurantee they will not make the playoffs.

by BigE50 on Jan 28, 2008 12:13 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yikes!
If the cubs do that i gurantee they will not make the playoffs.

I learned a long time ago to never make predictions...especially about the future.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 28, 2008 12:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

My thoughts...
I think that the Cubs should stray away from Roberts and go after Greene. Trade them Murton, Cedeno, and possibly Marquis or a minor leaguer. Then use Theriot and Derosa at 2nd and wherever else. Both guys are among the most versatile on the team, so I think it could work. Then If Jimmy wants to, I think he should try to trade for a 2/3 starter, but I dunno who we would have to trade to get one. Those are just my thoughts...

by airmidget1 on Jan 28, 2008 1:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i also would rather they'd go after greene
but i don't think that'll happen.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 28, 2008 1:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you really think that would get Greene?
 There's absolutely no doubt that Roberts fits the Cubs needs more than Greene. He'll lead off, be a threat to steal and a much better OBP. I also say that, because I still think Derosa and Roberts will be the Cubs everyday SS and 2B. I don't care what anyone says, that's what I think will happen.

 Greene is a fan favorite in SD and it'd take a lot to get Greene, especially since he's locked up for 2 more years still and the Padres are in no hurry to trade him right now.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I don't understand all the talk here about getting Greene.  Is San Diego in a rush to trade him and install Ronnie Cedeno as their shortstop?  I can't see them wanting Murton enough in LF to trade their starting shortstop with nobody to take over at SS.  It's a lot easier to fill left field than shortstop.  

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

roberts will not lead off for the cubs.
"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Jan 28, 2008 5:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The Orioles...
... are MLB's version of "Desperate Housewives".

Now, Peter Angelos is sticking his nose in. Taking bets as to whether this deal will EVER get done.

Or, whether the Cubs EVER want to deal with a team run like Baltimore. Except to keep dumping our rejects.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 1:35 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Angelos
is way too meddlesome. I thought the reason he hired McPhail was so he could remove himself from the GM operations. Guess he couldn't help himself.

That said, I wouldn't avoid making a deal that could potentially help the team just because it is a huge headache to work with a particular oganization.

A lot of people think Beane is just an OBP guy. What makes him succesful is finding what is undervalued in the market and investing in that. 5-10 years ago nobody paid attention to OBP, is was all about batting average and home runs. He made a successful franchise by finding that there were skilled players that weren't neccesarily mashers, but they were patient hitters. Much the same if there are certain clubs that a lot of GMs avoid because there ownership or GM is hard to deal with (like Baltimore or Tampa Bay), then that might be an undervalued market, and a smart GM would try to suck it up and find a way to make things work.

Just my opinion.

by jazzypete on Jan 28, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If Angelos vetoes the deal
I wish MacPhail would immediately quit and leave the Orioles with no GM right before Spring Training.  If this deal gets rejected, no one will ever want to deal with MacPhail again.  People may not like what MacPhail did in Chicago but he knows more about baseball than Angelos ever will.  Supposedly MacPhail was given the freedom to shake up the Orioles.  I guess not.      

by rlpete on Jan 28, 2008 2:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think
the Cubs should go after Rafael Furcal. He is undervalued coming off a down year, should get a contract-year boost since he's in the last year of his deal, and fills more of a "need" position than Roberts.

He could start at short, Derosa and second, and Theriot could play second whenever Derosa is put into utility role.

I am aware he is an imperfect player, but he is less imperfect than Theriot, and fits Piniella's perceived need of a fast left-handed (or switch-hitting) middle infielder to bat second. Maybe he would come cheaper than Roberts since Roberts is coming off a better year.

None of us know specifically what it might take to land him, so it's useless to throw out names, but I would bet it's less than what it would take to get Roberts.

by jazzypete on Jan 28, 2008 2:02 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not a bad idea.
You'd have to give the Dodgers a SS back. Would they be interested in Cedeno as part of a package?

Furcal also solves the #2 batting order slot problem.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

only if the Dodgers eat at least half that salary
IIRC that is a 3yr/$39M deal and don't know if it was back loaded or not. He's entering year #3. So it would be a 1yr 'deal' and IMHO he's not worth near that yearly salary.

He took a 3yr deal in the hopes that at age 31 he'd be able to score one more big deal going into '09; a reason why he didn't take the Cubs 5 year offer.

Luckily he took a larger per season deal from the Dodgers going into '06 than the 5yr/$45-50M offer from the Cubs.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 28, 2008 3:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

its a good idea but
the dodgers have no reason to trade him.  im not positive, but i dont think they have a short stop in the minors who is ready, and they are obviously trying to compete this year.  just like greene from SD, theres just no reason for the dodgers to make a deal.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 28, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed...
The Dodgers want to win now, and Furcal is still a big piece of the puzzle offensively for him.  I'm pretty sure they don't have anyone who can provide his offense at SS to replace him, and they are a somewhat limited offensive team to begin with.  Furthermore, if they did trade him, they wouldn't be looking for prospects - they'd be looking for players who can help them win now.  That's not the type of trade we need to be looking at.

The difference with the Greene situation is that the Padres are a team with a limited budget.  So Greene's resignability is the question there.  But LA does not have that problem, so there's just no reason to trade Furcal unless they get a sure-fire option at SS in return.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Problem
solved-- just make it a 3 team deal with Greene to LA, Furcal to Cubs, and Murton/whatever to the Pads.

by jazzypete on Jan 28, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not too shabby an idea...
Pads supposedly have interest in Murton.  murton Cedeno, for Greene, for Furcal.
MMMMM...Nutrisystem!

by Kinky Reggae on Jan 28, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

New problem created...
San Diego isn't likely to be excited about trading Greene within the division.  Further, they too are in contention and will need a good replacement at SS (not sure Cedeno qualifies here).  They aren't going to give LA their SS and possibly hurt their chances to compete now.

by SouthernCub on Jan 28, 2008 3:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Chin Lung Hu
is ready to play SS right now and is even in the picture to get some 3B playing time for LA this year.  Last year when Furcal was injured, the Dodgers also talked of trying Tony Abreu there, but he probably doesn't have the defense for it long-term.

So, the Dodgers don't need a SS back.  One problem is in a matchup between the two clubs.  The other is that there may be bad blood between Colletti and Hendry over the Furcal signing, especially after Hendry said he thought Furcal was grossly overpaid in the contract LA gave.

*** On Sabermetric Probation ***

by DGU on Jan 29, 2008 5:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I mentioned
Julio Lugo in another thread.  He bats right handed, which obviously isn't the idea, but I don't have any doubt that he'd be an upgrade over Theriot next season, and one way or the other we'd have a right handed hitting shortstop.  He probably wouldn't cost much due to the fact that he's got approx. $27 million and three years remaining on his contract and the Red Sox have a player (Jed Lowrie) waiting in the wings.  Lugo was not good in 2007 but to me it was an aberration, in fact he was a much better player in the second half than the first.  In exchange maybe we could dump Dempster on the Sox.  It's not an ideal situation but it is one that could benefit the team at little cost (other than money).  Heck, just getting rid of Dempster might be worth it.  
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 28, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i like this idea
it makes sense for BOTH teams, and the cost would not be a lot at all as you say.
Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 28, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just say no to Lugo
Lugo in the 2nd half: .280/.322/.406. 11 SB, 3 HR.

Ryan Theriot in the 2nd half: .257/.315/.339. 14 SB, 2 HR.

Lugo's 32 and has a huge contract. Theriot's 28 and doesn't cost that much and has something to prove.

Cost? Yes, probably minimal in terms of players. VERY large in terms of dollars, and you might be wanting to dump that deal before the year is over.

Forget it. Not worth it.  

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 3:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That's
a very simplistic way of looking at it.  Lugo would cost some money but he's a better player than Theriot and has a higher upside as well.  As I said, Lugo was not good last year and I'd look for him to improve significantly in '08, especially if he moves to the NL.

No point in arguing it though, it's just a random thought.  Maybe looking into it deeper would change my opinion.  I'm just not all that concerned about $9 million a year anymore I guess.  Makes me wonder what it's like to be a Yankee fan.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 28, 2008 4:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If we want to bet on a guy that did worse...
...than Theriot last season showing improvement, just use Ronny Cedeno. I don't know that there's a lot of reason to expect Lugo to bounce back - ZiPS, for one, sees him hitting .267/.335/.382 next season in Boston, which isn't spectacularly better than his .237/.294/.349 performance last season. Add in the fact that Theriot is likely to be the better defender, and I wouldn't call it an upgrade at all. Leave Lugo in Boston.
I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 28, 2008 11:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who knows?
Maybe it will happen.  With all we've been hearing about Roberts and the Orioles Hendry could surprise us with someone off the radar that hasn't been mentioned.  

One thing I'm wondering if people are considering or not about the whole DeRosa, what to do with him if we get Roberts thing.  Injuries.  Specifically injuries to someone that DeRosa could replace for a week or a month.  We kind of got lucky last year with few major injuries, but what happens in '08 if Soriano has leg problems, or Fukudome has arm problem, or ARam pulls a hammy?  It sure would be nice to have a honest-to-God major league player on the team who can take over.  No need to sign Tony Womack this time folks, DeRosa is ready to go.  Unless, of course, you really want to see Cedano starting at short and Theriot with an outfielders glove or something like that, again....

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 28, 2008 3:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LSA
 AHHHH someone who sees the positives in a versatile player!!! Well done sir, well done!!!
I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 28, 2008 4:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see why
you think DeRosa would put up with that.

he wants to be an every-day player.  He was the team MVP for a lot of last year.  WHY do you bench him?

You can talk about giving him lots of super-sub time, but I don't think it'll be enough.  We NEED him in the lineup.  Neither he nor Roberts are really SS material.

Furthermore, all this discussion about Roberts hitting first is a wash.  We KNOW Soriano doesn't produce out of the first slot.  I don't understand why this possibility is discussed, I really don't.

Drop Roberts.  Go for Greene, or pray that Theriot gets hot, or that Cedeno learns how to play the game -- and stop messing with one of our most productive players.

Worst to First in 2007, brought to you by Lou, Sori, A-Ram and D-Lee.

by drewishdrewid on Jan 28, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Last I checked...
DeRosa is making some decent $$.  

Not to mention, its pretty evident that he is a team first guy who actually appreciates the fact that he gets paid to do what he loves (and for the Cubs, a team he has wanted to play for since 03).

Would he prefer to start at 2B?.. sure.  But,from what I have seen out of him, he will give no less in a super sub situation. I'm actually in the play DeRo at SS camp, but that's another story.

by Scott 9 on Jan 28, 2008 6:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

exactly
DeRo on the bench gives us great insurance at least 3 positions (maybe 4 if he can play 1B on a consistent basis)

by DC Cubbie on Jan 28, 2008 6:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha Ha now they are saying...
that Jones was misquoted by the Venezuelan newspaper. I saw what he said and it was definitely not a big misquote. I am sure he got an earful from Bavasi about letting the cat out of the bag early. Bad timing? Maybe. Misquote? I don't buy it. How dumb do they think we are? My God President bush does a better job of covering stuff up than that, and that is a very scary thought.
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 28, 2008 6:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Pesident Bush..
is your god? Wierd....but to each his own. I personally say...

Monica Lewinskey's former boyfriend's wife for President!!!

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 28, 2008 6:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No, No, No......
What I meant to say was My God!!!! President Bush.... Sorry just a lazy typer. Monica Lewinskey's former boyfriend's wife said she saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors
I love the Cubs but they haven't loved me back...Yet!!

by Cubs hate me on Jan 28, 2008 6:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, then I wouldn't have to get on an airplane
To visit a country with the same system as China.

by Shanghai Badger on Jan 28, 2008 11:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bedard deal...
... not so fast:
The trade amounts to a litmus test for the authority of Andy MacPhail, the Orioles president of baseball operations, who was hired last summer with the understanding that he would operate with autonomy over baseball operations.

[Peter] Angelos has a history of interfering with his front office over personnel moves. His involvement has caused tension with several prior general managers.

On Monday, MacPhail denied that a deal with Seattle was in place.

"There really is no change. We are still having discussions, but we don't have an agreement," MacPhail said Monday.

MacPhail said he didn't expect that to change "over the next few days," but added, "anything can happen."

Anything, presumably, including MacPhail quitting in disgust. I would. What a dysfunctional organization. No wonder they haven't made the playoffs in a decade.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 28, 2008 7:51 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Peter Angelos
could screw up a wet dream. Why anyone would want to GM that team is beyond me.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 28, 2008 8:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

HA HA HA HA
That is McFail's punishment for messing up the Cubs for so many years.

Poetic justice I say.  I'm laughing my head off.

by nickler on Jan 29, 2008 11:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Jan 29, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL!
How appropriate - his karma bit him in the ass!
Wait 'til next year. And the next. And the Next. And the next after that too.

by TheEman on Jan 29, 2008 2:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

As if on cue
Ken Rosenthal reports (somewhat conflictingly) that  

Angelos' interference has either killed the trade or put this deal