Keith Law's top 100 prospects

by kylejo on Jan 31, 2008 2:42 PM CST

Just saw this on ESPN so I figured Id post it:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3221365

The Cubs that show up?

17. Josh Vitters
Vitters was the top prep hitter in the 2007 draft and could easily have gone first or second overall. He's an offensive third baseman with a simple, direct swing and plus-plus bat speed, making lots of contact and hitting everything hard to all fields. He already shows good raw power to pull and will drive balls out the other way as he adds experience and muscle. At third base, he's rough, but has enough athletic ability to be at least average at the position, and he has plenty of arm strength for the position. He's a star and he should move quickly for a high school product.

32. Geovany Soto
It might not have made any difference in the playoffs, but the Cubs would have clinched their division a few days sooner had they handed Soto the catcher's job after they shipped Michael Barrett (parcel post, no less) to San Diego. Instead, they gave the remains of Jason Kendall the job, costing themselves on offense and defense. Soto has plus raw power, keeping his weight back extremely well, and he has the upper-body strength to take pitches middle-out and pull them out to left-center. He can get too pull-happy, but he has shown the ability to shorten up and go the other way, and his pitch recognition is solid. He has a strong arm and average receiving skills. There was no justification for playing Kendall over Soto, and now Soto's path is clear to play every day and make a run at the NL rookie of the year award.

71. Sean Gallagher
Gallagher could step in as the fifth starter right now for most noncontending clubs, and has a good chance to end up a solid No. 4 in the majors. He works with a three-pitch mix: a 92-94 mph four-seamer that's a little too true, a tight 12-to-6 curve that gets swings and misses for him and a solid-average changeup with some fading action. His control is above average but his command is below, and despite having a quick arm there's some effort in his delivery that may hold his command back long term.

76. Josh Donaldson
Donaldson's huge pro debut may be setting unrealistic expectations, but he could end up a steal at the 48th overall pick. Primarily a third baseman in college, he's playable already behind the plate with soft hands, good footwork and a solid-average arm. He centers balls well and has above-average raw power, but he tends to lunge for the ball too often instead of staying back.

I cant remember the last time the Cubs had 4 top 100 prospects so this is nice to see. Not a very encouraging evaluation of Gallagher, though the ranking is nice. Vitters looks like a monster, and Aramis' contract should expire right when Vitters could be ready. Also nice to see that we may have stolen Donaldson.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Where Is...

... Felix Pie?

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 31, 2008 2:50 PM CST reply actions

He is only...

viewed as a top prospect by the Cubs and the fans.

"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"

by HIGGY on Jan 31, 2008 2:52 PM CST up reply actions

haha

the fact that he is not eligible may also have come into play

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 31, 2008 3:00 PM CST up reply actions

Why is that?

too many major league AB's?

I tend to agree with Higgy. Pie is clearly still a prospect and one that probably has been a bit overated by the club and fans alike.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 31, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions

its probably at bats

but i know for sure he isnt eligible. last year he was #49 on baseball america's list http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263445.html. and after tearing up triple A and getting to the majors, he wouldnt all of a sudden disapear from top 100 lists.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 31, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

To be a prospect

you have to have fewer than 130 ABs at the major leagues. Pie has more than that. He doesn't qualify. He wasn't on my list of top Cub prospects either, for the same reason.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 31, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks Josh...

...so, technically, Pie was a rookie last year, right?

Definition of a rookie: "A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of a 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service)."

So, is that 130 total at bats at the major league level, or 130 in one season? Also, is it 45 days in one season? Does anyone know for sure?

It doesn't matter for Pie, as his only MLB stats were in 2007... I just wanted to know.

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 31, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions

130 at-bats total.

Doesn't matter if they were in the same season or not.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 31, 2008 9:47 PM CST up reply actions

How About The 45-days?

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 31, 2008 9:50 PM CST up reply actions

pie

the reason pie isnt on this list is cause he isnt good enough to be a top 100 prospect. pie is nothing more than a avg player at besttttttt!! we should have packaged him up and sent him on his way when other people believed the pie is a future superstar lie.

GO CUBS GO!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 31, 2008 4:52 PM CST up reply actions

Thanks for "adding" to the conversation

It might be prudent to give the kid longer than 1/2 of a season to prove his worth. If we give him a chance, he has the talent to be a very good player.

by stork on Jan 31, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions

adding to the convo huh

well try this one on for size--we haven't won a championship in 100 years!! we have been handing out chances every year for years and frankly i'm downright tired of hoping and dreaming tomorrow or next month or next year comes. this is a win now or never built ball club and we have no room for error.

i must say you are not alone in not caring about winning now around here. for people like you its ok to wait, as long as we dont take a chance on a trade. pie fits well into our plans 2 or 3 years from now. problem with that is we will have a mostly over aged,over paid ballclub that is either washed up or too brittle to battle, day in and day out for a pennant.

allow me to predict pie---since the top of the lineup is full and he's not exactly a power hitter(he thinks he is though)--pie will bat either 7th or 8th. what pitcher is gonna give a 7 or 8 hole hitter good pitches to hit on a consistent basis with the pitcher and/or the weakest hitter in the lineup hitting behind you??

pie has already proved he cant hit left handed pitching and he dont have plate discipline. another thing is---he is really young and still very raw. not a good recipe for a championship caliber team who needs every ounce of offense to contend. pie has alot of speed and needs to become the type of hitter who finds anyway possible to get on base in front of 2 or 3 power hitters so he can utilize his speed. he's not gonna get that at the bottom of the lineup therefore i'm predicting he's gonna be a failure with this teams current makeup and need.

GO CUBS GO!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 31, 2008 6:02 PM CST up reply actions

"pie fits in our plans 2 or 3 years from..

the cubs do not have a center fielder right now. felix pie plays center field. pie went .362/.410/.563/.973 last year at iowa, he has nothing left to prove there.

tell me again how pie doesnt fit now?

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 31, 2008 7:21 PM CST up reply actions

Pie

I'm with Kyle on this one. Pie's numbers at AAA, even though a small sample, are simply too big to ignore. It reminds me of Rich Hill, who many wanted thrown on his ear after his first couple forays into the majors. But you kept looking at his AAA stats and they were just too good for him to continually struggle at the Major League level, and he proved that last year, when he was deceptively one of the more dominating starters in the NL.

Pie needs to be given a chance to be a contributor, not a star for a couple reasons. He has the talent, and also because the Cubs need to fill some positions through their own system for cost-efficiency. He's under our control and cheap for a long while, so he should be given every chance to prove he can be a player. We cannot fill every position with free agents, we are not the Yankees, and even they and the Red Sox are trying to fill what they can with their own players, so they save money for quality free agents for holes they have to fill.

by SamFels on Jan 31, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions

Here's another look at the matter...

...which, to me at least, has received surprisingly little attention so far this offseason.

Pie, AAA:
.362/.410/.563

Pie, AAA (translated into MLB):
.311/.349/.477

Pie, actual MLB:
.215/.271/.333

Pie, translated plus actual:
.269/.282/.415

A .697 OPS is not spectacular, granted. It's not quite Ryan Theriot territory but it's close.

But the difference between shortstop and center field as far as positional value goes is next to nonexistant - it's a defensive premium position. And Pie is a plus defender at his position.

I should also add that Pie has a higher ceiling than Theriot does. I know which position I'd like to roll the dice with, and which I'd like to shore up with an established vet. Your milage may vary.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 31, 2008 8:44 PM CST up reply actions

1st of all...

AAA is a long way from the majors. 2nd of all the offense in AAA was centered around pie. the pitching was inferior and he saw a lot of pitches to hit. we have a lead off hitter(which pie is best suited for). pie is gonna hit at the bottom of the lineup. like i said above pie cant hit lefties well and he's not gonna see a lot of pitches to hit in front of the pitcher. pie also has a bad tendency to wanna be a pull hitter in which he's not. i hope i'm wrong but a .200 avg from our center fielder is less than desirable to me but hey someone must know more than me, seeing how we havent won a WS in 100 years.

GO CUBS GO!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Jan 31, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions

Well obviously

....it's Pie's fault we haven't won in 100 years. Al, is there a way we can ban that sentence from the board? It's such an easy out, and it isn't even applicable. Let's focus on this team, this regime, this era. As for Pie not hitting where he should, how is that his fault? Isn't it the manager's job to put a player where he can best succeed? I'd love to see Pie get a chance at the top of the lineup, and I'd love to see soriano with Ramirez behind him so he'll get pitches to hit too. We simply have not seen enough of him at the major league level to give up on him.

I keep coming back to Kevin Kouzmanoff, who I think hit .048 the first two months of the season for San Diego. But they kept telling him all they wanted was that he catch the ball and they would wait for his hitting to come around. And it did. If we could show Pie that kind of patience, I think he'll blossom.

by SamFels on Jan 31, 2008 9:44 PM CST up reply actions

So THAT'S what that difference is...

...between AAA and the majors. I hadn't thought of that until now! Everything becomes so clear!

Ok, now seriously. Professional baseball players come from somewhere. That somewhere is AAA. And so obviously there are some players that can make the transition, or we wouldn't have baseball players anymore.

And AAA is not a long way from the majors. It's the closest thing there is to the majors.

Now you can either put some thought into actually evaluating a minor league performance and player evaluation, or you can dismiss everyone who doesn't already have major league success. The latter doesn't make you smart, and it doesn't make for a winning ballclub.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 31, 2008 9:46 PM CST up reply actions

I would agree

that many players who become stars in the major leagues had nice success at the AAA level.

With that said, there have also been quite a few that tore up AAA, and fell on their face at the major league level.

There are a lot of reasons for this, with number one being making the mental adjustment one has to be successful against better pitchers on a day to day basis. Some do it and some don't and I don't think there is any stat that can (with any accuracy) predict who those players will be.

I have no idea whether Pie will be a good major league hitter or not, but I do know his struggles got worse, the more he was exposed to advanced scouts and major league pitching. The kid can run like the wind and field his rear end off, but it would appear it's 50/50 whether he will be a productive major league hitter.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 31, 2008 10:05 PM CST up reply actions

There absolutley is no certain measure...

...of major-league success. But I don't know if there were ever any alternatives to committing to Pie that were palatable - one more year of Jacque Jones? Paying $18 million per to Andruw Jones? God forbid we mention Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand. About the last thing this team needed was another high-priced signing of a guy on the back end of his career.

As far as stopgaps go - I've hashed out before why I don't think Kenny Lofton is the answer. The fact is that this was a bad offseason to go looking for a center fielder, given the demand out there, and at some point the only way you're going to find out what Pie has is to let him go out there and play. And it's not as though players can wait around until you're ready for them; leave a guy at AAA for too long and he stalls out. You can wreck a prospect by underpromoting as well as overpromoting.

Add in the fact that the Cubs impatience with Pie last season and his resulting poor performance drove down his trade stock considerably, and... yeah. This is pretty much the point of no return.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jan 31, 2008 10:35 PM CST up reply actions

I have said this before

if Lou and the gang want to give Pie 30-40 games to show he can do it, go for it. They will just need to have a plan B ready if Pie can not show he is ready for ML pitching.

On the other hand, if Pie becomes part of a potential Roberts trade, I have no problem with that, because it makes the Cubs better NOW.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 1, 2008 10:13 AM CST up reply actions

Right, we should...

...deal from our depth at center field in order to fill our hole at second base.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 1, 2008 10:18 AM CST up reply actions

The hole is not necessarily at 2nd

it is in the offensive lineup Lou would put out there if they decided to standpat.

IMO, Roberts would give them versatility that would make the lineup more "slump proof". If they do trade for Roberts, it's possible they could do it without trading Pie, but if they have to, I won't shed any tears.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Feb 1, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions

id really like to see

five players who put up a .900+ ops as a 22-year-old in AAA who did not turn out to be an everyday starter at some point in their career.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 1, 2008 12:09 AM CST up reply actions

OK...here it goes.

Forgive me if I expanded the criteria a little. These guys all had OPS at least .897 in a AAA season in which they were 21-23 years old and had at least 200 ABs.

Ben Petrick http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=11357
Mario Valdez http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=14897
Steve Gibralter http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=5421
Micah Franklin http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=4981
Billy Ashley http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=678
Marc Newfield http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=10425

I didn't check to see what, if any, injuries they may have had that could have kept them from the show, but they almost all played until they were 27-30 years old. And Newfield did have one season as a regular, but he split it between San Diego & Milwaukee and only totalled 370 ABs. He's my sixth man anyway, so I don't care.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 1, 2008 2:25 AM CST up reply actions

impressive

well, there you go. id really like to know what happened to the last two guys ashley and newfield because they looked like legitimate stars in the making. some of those other guys dont really match up well with pies total minor league stats, or didnt do it as early, but i stand corrected regardless and concede that pie could flop and be nothing, i think the fact that he is a plus defender though will ensure he has positive value to the cubs in 2008 though.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 1, 2008 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

I don't remember all of them but

Ashley was a big power prospect. A big swing and lots of K's. Not a good defender.

Not a close comp to Pie in terms of power but the big swing has some comparisons.

by rlpete on Feb 1, 2008 9:25 AM CST up reply actions

Last I saw of Billy Ashley...

...he was trying to catch on with the Devil Rays. This was spring training circa 2000 I think. Didn't make the team, so I'm not sure if he went to the minors or just hung 'em up.

But man, did he have power. I still have a ball he hit at Wrigley when he was with the Dodgers. It was early in the season and the wind was blowing in at a pretty good clip - one of those typical late April raw bone-chilling days at the ballpark. Kind of day where even the ballhawks will admit we're crazy for standing out there.

And yet, Billy Ashley absolutely crushed one during batting practice. On a day where the balls - if they even came out - were just barely clearing the high fence over the old family section in left, he hit the yellow brick building across Waveland ON THE FLY. In fact, it broke the upper pane of a first story window. I was underneath it trying to "Torii Hunter" it - instead I got showered with little pieces of glass. After a little bit of careful shaking and brushing, I was fine.

Oh yeah, I got the ball too - it was cut up a bit from the glass and if you held it up to the light you could see some sparkles from tiny bits embedded in the leather. Years later, I got him to sign it - he has a real nice autograph - and I told him the story. He stopped for a second and started to smile, like he knew he was never going to make it big, but man, he could crush it.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Feb 2, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions

I remember seeing that hit.

Ashley could hit for power, no doubt about it. But that's about all he could do. He was the poor man's Dave Kingman.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 2, 2008 4:37 AM CST up reply actions

Marc Newfield

could still be playing, if he hadn't been classic case of a rushed prospect (and, really, set the trend for the Mariners of rushing many of their hot prospects to their eventual detriment.) I remember when he got traded from the Padres to the Brewers when they were still in the AL, it seemed like he might have turned the corner. And then..not so much.

by PrincetonCubs on Feb 1, 2008 7:15 PM CST up reply actions

Like all statistics,

context is important.

When looking at a player's AAA, or AA, or A+, numbers, you also need to look at his age relative to his level: is he a 25-26 old at AAA, or a 23 year old?

His league: PCL or INT? An 800 OPS in the INT league at AAA, which is a pitcher's league, than an 800 OPS in the PCL at AAA, which contains quite a few hitter's parks. An 800 OPS is much more impressive if the league average OPS is 700, whereas an 800 OPS is only meh if the league average OPS is 790.

Position and D are also important. A prospect who plays good D at a key defensive position provides value beyond his bat and will be given lots of chances to adjust offensively. A 1b / dh type prospect who is a bad baserunner, ie no value beyond his bat, is going to get a far shorter leash from MLB teams.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 4, 2008 1:38 AM CST up reply actions

So....

what do you propose? How about Cedeno, Marquis and Pie for Beltran? Or are you in the Lofton camp?

Pie, good or bad, is their centerfielder this year. It's not like there are other options.

by rlpete on Jan 31, 2008 9:56 PM CST up reply actions

Obviously

Someone does know more than you, it's the reason this person isn't dealing Pie. Consider: Deal Pie, and who steps in? You can either place a current player (Fuld) in center, or sign someone left on the market (Lofton). The one thing you can't do is obtain a stud center-fielder. Even if the Cubs had the package to get such a player, why wouldn't said package be used to get more pitching, a bigger weakness than center field? Trade Pie, and you're left with at best an equal player as what you started with, and more than likely a downgrade.

Perhaps you're still stung by Corey Patterson's promise and eventual trade?

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on Feb 1, 2008 5:13 AM CST up reply actions

Interesting

I was going to post that Kevin Goldstein's list at BP is out. He only lists:

Geovany Soto
Josh Vitters

Other interesting names on the list in terms of discussing the unnameds that might have been or could be Cubs:

Chris Tillman, rhp, Mariners (higher than I expected)
Carlos Gomez, of, Twins
Deolis Guerra, rhp Twins

by rlpete on Jan 31, 2008 2:53 PM CST reply actions

The list

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7092

by rlpete on Jan 31, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions

I'd like to see a breakdown

of where each org ranks, how many top 100's do they have and at what number. I didn't see that in Law's column, does anyone know if he has them ranked somewhere?

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 2:53 PM CST reply actions

Law's list

Overall, not too bad. I do disagree with naming a HS player that has had minimal experience as the 17th best prospect.

by rlpete on Jan 31, 2008 2:56 PM CST reply actions

Fukudome elgible for ROY?

Didn't want to start a diary about this, so I'll put it here instead.

According to This article on MLB.com it lists Fukudome as elgible for the ROY award. I always thought Japanese players weren't elgible for ROY?

Throw aside any controversy over whether former Japanese professionals should be considered for Rookie of the Year awards. Rules are rules, and that means that this year, Fukudome has as much of a chance as anyone to take home some hardware.

Ironically it doesn't list Soto as a possible ROY candidate.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 31, 2008 3:03 PM CST reply actions

Yes they are...

Ichiro won the AL ROY in 2001.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 31, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

Rigght, Right

Thought it was changed since however. But more likely as Josh pointed out below, I must've thought that, because most voters don't vote for Japanese players as old as Fukudome.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 31, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions

animosity

over at minor league sites like John Sickel's, there are practically daily hissy fits over the idea of voting for someone like Fukudome for ROY. while the idea of comparing a 30-yr-old professional to guys in their early 20s for the award of "best new player" does seem strange, the jump to the majors will affect Fukudome as well--new pitcher, new parks, etc. besides, the rules are the rules, so if Fukudome's eligible and outplays all the other rookies...it should be a moot point.
and the thing is, almost every rookie in baseball has been playing professionally for several years before getting to the majors, so I don't think Fukudome has an unfair advantage. It's not like the NBA, where guys like Bargnani or (soon) Gallinari will have been playing against pros in Europe for a couple years while all the other rookies are coming straight out of college, with a generally lower competition level. Even then, it's unclear whether that makes a big difference. It seems like everyone has an adjustment period when they reach the highest level of their sport. (But I hope Fukudome's is an easy one.)

by PrincetonCubs on Jan 31, 2008 11:50 PM CST up reply actions

how is that "ironic"

by Thelonious on Jan 31, 2008 6:58 PM CST up reply actions

Soto ROY...

... hmmm.

From: http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=434567, Soto has not had 130 ABs total in his career.

I wonder if he has been on the roster for 45 days on the active roster during the period of a 25-player limit? I doubt it.

This is the Cubs new #1!

by initram on Jan 31, 2008 9:46 PM CST up reply actions

No, he hasn't.

The only time he was on the roster other than September (he was called up in September 2005, 2006 and 2007) was a few days last July.

Soto's a 2008 rookie and will be eligible for ROY consideration.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 1, 2008 7:18 AM CST up reply actions

Our prospects are

above average. We are alittle ahead of the middle of the pack, IMO.

And to answer about Felix Pie, he is no longer a prospect and his rookie season was last year. 2008 will be his 2nd pro season.

Jose Ceda, Tyler Colvin, and Donald Veal I would imagine would be the next Cubs listed.

"Losing is my only fear"

by Unique on Jan 31, 2008 3:05 PM CST reply actions

With Wilken running the show

and hopefully an added financial priority to the Minor League system by the Cubs and their system will only get better.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 31, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions

Law

doesn't like Colvin, so I don't think he'd list him too high.

He does love Vitters, which is why he ranked him at #17, despite him having done nothing at the professional level yet.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 31, 2008 3:22 PM CST up reply actions

Law

doesn't just look at what they've done (or not done) he also looks at how they did it and whether it bodes well for their future or not. He tends to be very preceptive, if he thinks Vitters is the 17th best prospect I'll take his word for it. As for Colvin, Law thinks he is a 4th outfielder, no more.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 4:40 PM CST up reply actions

Goldstein must not think much

of Colvin either. He doesn't have him top 100 either.

This really shows that the people that claim that "Hendry must have been sleeping and let Santana get away" that there are multiple views on prospects and not everyone is viewed the same. Just because someone might be the Cubs #3 prospect doesn't mean that the player is that good or even viewed that highly by everyone.

by rlpete on Jan 31, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions

surprised

Fukudome should be top 100. Matsuzaka was number 1 last year and Fukudome is for sure top 100.

by Rezze21 on Jan 31, 2008 3:23 PM CST reply actions

Keith Law doesn't

evaluate Japanese players. He just doesn't include them on his list and I'd expect that he didn't have Matsuzaka last year.

That being said, he said that he expects Abreu-like numbers for Fukudome.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Feb 2, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions

We'd take that...

... especially the walks. Example: if Fukudome walks 100 times -- and that's possible -- that would be 25% of ALL the walks that the Cubs drew in Dusty Baker's last year.

I hope Reds pitchers walk Fukudome dozens of times this year. Dusty won't care, because he never did when Cubs pitchers clogged the bases with opposing baserunners.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 3, 2008 4:30 AM CST up reply actions

Fukudome

is technically a prospect, but I haven't seen anyone list him yet. He and Soto are both Rookie of the Year candidates. Obviously, some sportswriters will refuse to vote for Fukudome for RoY because they thing that the rules should be different and they're taking it into their own hands to change them rather than actually follow them.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh Timmers on Jan 31, 2008 3:24 PM CST reply actions

Silly baseball writers...

that's the umpires job.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 31, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

Agreed

They need to follow the rules. Really, it's no different than if a player in his 30's came up from the minors for the first time and won ROY. The Japanese league is a bit more competitive but it doesn't change the fact that they are competing on a higher level in the majors and that they are rookies.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 4:43 PM CST up reply actions

Technically...

Fukudome is not a prospect, right? However, he will be considered a rookie...

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by initram on Jan 31, 2008 9:49 PM CST up reply actions

One definition of a prospect...

...is a player who hasn't used up his rookie eligibility. That's why Fukudome appears in Baseball America's handbook (albeit in the appendix). But prospect isn't an official term, so it all boils down to who you ask. Rookie, on the other hand, is defined in the official rules of baseball.

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by cwyers on Jan 31, 2008 9:58 PM CST up reply actions

Soto or Donaldson down the road?

i would imagine it would be Soto at this point in time, but donaldson seems to be getting a lot of positive attention.

I hope Vitters can slide right in when Arams deal is over, but do Soto or Donaldson have enough power to possibly play 1st while the other assumes the catching?

Colvin played first at Clemson, so perhaps there is room for him afterall eventhough the OF is full for the forseeable future, provided Pie holds down CF

Toby Flenderson represents all that is wrong with the paper business.

by bren on Jan 31, 2008 4:05 PM CST reply actions

trade bait, obviously

dunno which one they'd wind up keeping, but catchers that can both hit and catch are a rare and valuable commodity in todays game. so many power hitting catchers already get converted into first baseman or outfielders so they can concentrate on hitting. anyways, the Cubs only need one so the lesser of the two likely winds up as a bargaining chip for another starting pitcher.

by petrie on Jan 31, 2008 4:19 PM CST up reply actions

Or

as a replacement for DLee if they can hit well enough.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 4:44 PM CST up reply actions

Thats what I was saying about Colvin

I read somewhere that he played first and was coverted to an OF at Clemson...so who knows, maybe Vitters will end up somewhere other than 3rd if he can hack it defensively....but did I miss it, or was Colvin not on the top 100?

Toby Flenderson represents all that is wrong with the paper business.

by bren on Jan 31, 2008 5:42 PM CST up reply actions

Colvin

played first in high school and was converted to a left fielder at Clemson. The Cubs have been converting him to a center fielder. It's rare for a guy to successfully move up the defensive spectrum like that, which is why so many scouts and analysts doubt his abilities. But the Cubs seem very confident he will hit and will be able to stay in center field.

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by Josh Timmers on Jan 31, 2008 6:39 PM CST up reply actions

almost would seem a waste

of athleticism if colvin were to play first. im sure the colvin situation will work itself out, with both soriano and dome past 30, or just in a trade. law says above that donaldson played 3rd in college, so he'd seem a possible 1b candidate once dlees gone. the above average power wouldnt hurt either.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Jan 31, 2008 7:25 PM CST up reply actions

Donaldson

would be a first base candidate. I've seen him compared to Paul Konerko, although he's not nearly that tall.

It's hard to remind ourselves that Donaldson is still a long ways away and a bit of a gamble. He absolutely destroyed the Northwest League last year, but it was the Northwest League. A lot of crummy pitchers there and small ballparks, although he did hit better there than anyone else did in the entire league. (He would have won the batting crown if he'd have had enough ABs to qualify.)

He needs to prove something at Peoria or Daytona this year. If he hits as well there as he did in Boise, he becomes one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball probably.

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by Josh Timmers on Jan 31, 2008 9:23 PM CST up reply actions

Tyler Colvin

Disappointed not to see Tyler Colvin on this list. Personal opinion is that he is the long-term answer in CF, not the overhyped Felix Pie. Colvin struggles with on-base %, but indications are that his swing and hitting approach are solid. Seems like apt comparison is Jacque Jones. I'll take that.

I wonder if Josh Donaldson gets moved to a new position soon. Looks like he is below average behind the plate. With his offensive skills I'd rather seem him learn a new position sooner rather than later.

by MDBNIU on Feb 1, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions

A better comp...

... for Colvin might be Jeff Francoeur. We'd take that, too.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 1, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions

Francouer

I'll definitely take that. Jeff Francouer is the best kept secret in baseball. Not sure if Tyler Colvin will have the same power, run production ability or Howitzer arm though.

by MDBNIU on Feb 1, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

Colvin

doesn't have the arm of Francouer. That is a difference. He has a good arm though, just not a great one.

Colvin has great doubles power right now. Often that develops into home run distance as players get older and develop their bodies more.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh Timmers on Feb 1, 2008 5:19 PM CST up reply actions

Keith Law

is well on the record that he doesn't think Tyler Colvin is much of a prospect. That's his opinion and not necessarily the opinion of many others in the field of evaluating minor league talent.

Donaldson is not below average defensively. Look what Keith Law wrote at the top of this diary. He has soft hands and good footwork. He's had a problem throwing out runners, but his arm is considered to be pretty strong (after all, he did play third base). His problems throwing out runners could be the result of his pitchers in Boise or it could be a minor technical flaw that could be corrected. But Donaldson easily has a strong enough arm to remain behind the plate. It's not a cannon, but it's plenty strong enough.

My comments about him playing first base are more along the lines of "If he can't catch, he'll hit enough to be a productive first baseman." Don't leave the "if" off.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh Timmers on Feb 1, 2008 5:17 PM CST up reply actions

Wilken vs Law

The problem with the Colvin situation make go back to Law and Wilken working together in Toronto, Ill bet they're not to fond of each other

by SlamDog @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 3, 2008 2:55 PM CST reply actions

Except

Law loves Josh Vitters, so that really doesn't make any sense now does it?

He doesn't like Colvin because he doesn't walk very much and he doesn't think he ever will. It's really that simple and not the result of some sort of Blue Jays Blood Feud.

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by Josh Timmers on Feb 3, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions