Cub Power 2008 - A New Century Rising!

by hellfreezesoverwaittillnextyear on Jan 31, 2008 5:43 PM CST

Baseball Musings just posted a review of the Cubs projected lineup production for this year that looks very promising:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/024657.php

After an ugly 2006 season that was my most "unenjoyable" to watch, the Central Division Championship under Lou's first year brought welcome relief and excitement; albeit a "dud" of a finish.

Perhaps the possible trade-not-to-be-named could skyrocket these projections, but could also be considered unnecessary - given the current Cubs positive lineup chemistry and increased projections.

Barring a certain "Zealot greed-monger" from gumming up the works, a post season run into the Promised Land might complete this Century as a Championship Celebration!

Given the luck factor, our Cubbies are way past due!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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It's interesting

that they note that the difference between the best and worst lineups (5.25-4.57) are perhaps the biggest they've seen yet, and that the reason is likely that two power hitters are hitting at the top and bottom of the order when they should be in the middle. That difference (.68 runs per game) would equal about 110 runs over the course of the season, or about 10 wins (someone check my math). Assuming that Soto doesn't hit 8th the difference may not be that large, but moving him to, say, 6th and moving a certain erstwhile leadoff hitter down to a spot where he'd be more productive seems like it would help us score some more runs. We ran the numbers with "good" Soriano (his leadoff numbers) leading off and "bad" Soriano (his numbers anywhere but leadoff) hitting 5th and every time the team scored more runs with him hitting 5th rather than 1st.

I know there is resistance from some people to moving Soriano down, though I think it's misguided. Soriano himself said that he wouldn't mind and that he would adjust, for what that's worth. To me it just seems like power hitters with marginal on-base skills shouldn't be called on as table setters, no matter how fast they are. The numbers appear to agree.

That said, if we scored 4.92 runs a game we'd probably end up in the upper middle class as far as NL offenses go. I don't know if that's good enough but it is encouraging. With a little luck we could be one of the better offensive teams in the NL this year.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 7:14 PM CST reply actions

Different difference

What you (and the website) are describing is a difference between the best and the given lineups, so the difference would be perhaps five runs, which is about half as large.

Whose idea is it to bat Soto 8th, by the way? It's clear to me that he ought to be hitting in front of at least Felix Pie...

GOATBUSTERS! - I ain't afraid of no goat!

by gjdow on Jan 31, 2008 7:37 PM CST up reply actions

Correct, almost

They were comparing the best and given lineups, but I compared the best and worst lineups. My mistake, I didn't catch that they were talking about best/given, I assumed it was best/worst when they talked about the large difference.

I don't know why they are assuming that Soto would bat 8th either, but it does help illustrate the difference in best/worst case lineups and why it makes sense to hit people in the proper spots. The 110 runs I mentioned was the difference between the best/worst lineups, if you go on best/given then the difference would be approximately 53 runs, or about 5 wins.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 31, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions

There's no way..

... Soto hits 8th. He didn't hit 8th when he started games in 2007 -- why would he hit 8th as the #1 catcher in 2008?

He'll hit sixth or seventh. That ought to bump up the average. If the Cubs score 5 runs a game that makes 810 runs for the year. That ought to win quite a few games.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 31, 2008 9:24 PM CST up reply actions

Especially not

with Pie and Theriot on the team. Unless Theriot hits second, which is another thing altogether. It looks like Soto could/should hit 6th, or maybe 7th at worst. If he's as good as advertised that would be a great addition to the lineup and along with Dome we might just reach 800 runs scored. Big difference between Floyd/Kendall.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Feb 1, 2008 8:40 AM CST up reply actions

Soriano only leads off in the first inning...

...after that he could be anywhere in the order during an inning. One good reason to have him hit first is to give him more at bats during the game.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 1, 2008 9:11 AM CST up reply actions

No

By that logic, the best hitters on every team would hit in descending order through the lineup. That idea has been thoroughly disproved for well over a century. You maximize runs scored by giving your best hitters and sluggers a chance to drive others in, not just themselves.

by ms9av on Feb 1, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

Numbers

Ok, 2007 stats:

Soriano, 579 ABs, 189 plate appearances with runners on base

Ramirez, 506 ABs, 258 with runners on

Lee, 567 ABs, 253 with runners on

So while Soriano batted with runners on only 32% of the time, Derrek Lee enjoyed the privilege in 44% of his ABs and Aramis in 50% of his.

by ms9av on Feb 1, 2008 10:12 AM CST up reply actions

Excellent points

Not to mention that if a leadoff hitter with a higher .OBP was used both DLee and Ramirez would get even more at-bats with runners on. So would Soriano. I'd rather have the three of them getting ab's with runners on than say, Ryan Theriot.

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Feb 1, 2008 11:56 AM CST up reply actions

Soto has earned

better than #8. period.

Lou's also proven that he's willing to move around players, except Alfonso. He's special.

"Good pitching will always stop good hitting and vice-versa." -Casey Stengel

by cubbybear on Jan 31, 2008 10:39 PM CST reply actions

he is special

he poops gold

by TheHawk5 on Feb 1, 2008 2:29 AM CST up reply actions

Cub Power

I have a photo of myself at the age of seven wearing a "Cub Power" t-shirt and holding a wiffle bat, taken in 1978. That was the year the Cubs as a team combined for just 72 homers. Not exactly a "power" year for the North Siders.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 1, 2008 9:50 AM CST reply actions

You write about this...

... and don't post the photo?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Feb 1, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

I need to

get it onto the computer. I will do so soon.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 5, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions

soto

this will be soto.s 1st season in the bigs so here,s hoping for good things.if this guy delivers watch out.love having pinella running the show.let,s hope he does,nt go backwards like dusty did.

by NOMAR on Feb 2, 2008 6:19 AM CST reply actions