Cubs vs. Brewers...

by cubs0505 on Jan 4, 2008 5:19 PM CST

Dayn Perry over at FoxSports.com has a new article up comparing the Cubs and Brewers:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7635010

He gives the Cubs the edge overall, saying that while Milwaukee has the edge in the lineup, almost every other catagory (starting pitching, defense, bullpen and bench) are wins for the Cubs.

He also compares the starting lineups by position. It's here that Perry loses credit. Prince Fielder over D-Lee? Ryan "E5" Braun over A-Ram? 'Dome simply a "Push" against Corey Hart? Please. At least he didn't say Joe Dillon is better than Alfonso in left.

Your thoughts? Perry does give the Cubbies the edge almost everywhere else, is that justified?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Get Real

Lee is a far better 1B than Fielder. The only reason he picked him is because he hit 50 homers. Braun is good, but he's not better than ARam. If he consistently goes out for the next 5 years and hits like he did this year, maybe. But ARam is a better defensive 3B. Push for Dome and Hart is fine with me. Dome hasn't even played yet so i'm surprised he even gave it a push.

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 4, 2008 5:22 PM CST reply actions

That being said

Perry is a douchebag.

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 4, 2008 5:23 PM CST reply actions

Well... Yeah

I would take Fielder and Braun for A-Ram and D-Lee. They are way younger, more productive and cheaper (and A-Ram ain't no Brooks Robinson either).

Braun had a Pujols-like season last year. He may slump in his second year, but I think he's got a shot at bettering those numbers. Put Braun's rookie stats against A-Ram's best year ever. They compare pretty well, yes. Then consider Braun was in the minors for 5 weeks to start the season.

Lee is a solid 1b with one amazing year ('05), Fielder has ALREADY had that amazing year and he's 23. Lee is overrated defensively and doesn't run anymore, Fielder is better in OPS. I'd say Prince has about 5 more dominant years before eating himself out of the league.

Corey Hart had a really solid season last Year (20-20, 80-80), and we don't know if Dome is going to be Hideki Matsui or Kaz Matsui, yet. A Push seems fair to me.

Don't get me wrong, I love the Cubs, But the Brewers have some Scary young hitters for the next few years (until the Yankees and Red Sox sign them).

Vote Santo!

by nuflattop on Jan 4, 2008 5:24 PM CST reply actions

I agree

If that team can develop, they're going to be scary.

by ProfessorCynic on Jan 4, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions

I wouldn't make that trade...

Dunno if I'd take Fielder and Braun straight up for Aramis and Lee. Quite honestly, both Fielder and Braun had incredible seasons last year, but one season is not enough to make that trade, in my opinion. A-Ram has hit around .300 with 30-35 homers the last four seasons. I'd take that over one shortened season of Braun. Braun hit .324 with 34 homers, which isn't that much of a leap over A-Ram. Compare that to, say, A-Ram's 2004 year (.318 and 36 homers), and you're really not that far off.

While Braun had a great rookie year, realistically he's going to come down a bit from that. Plus, while Aramis isn't Gold-Glove caliber, he's light years ahead of Braun.

Fielder also had a season well above his averages. True, he is young, but both he and D-Lee have had one huge season, both of them need to prove they can repeat that kind of production. Since Lee has been hurt with injury and off-the-field problems (his daughter), I forsee a rebound for him now that those problems have been resolved.

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on Jan 4, 2008 6:06 PM CST reply actions

Be realistic:

ARam in 2004: .318 and 36 homers... in 145 games (547 AB).
Braun in 2007: .324 and 34 homers... in 113 games (451 AB). Prorating Braun's season out to 145 games and he would have finished with roughly 44 homers. And if you look at Braun's stats, you notice that his season numbers from last year are the exact same as his career numbers. Why? Because it was his first taste of major league pitching, and what did he do? Absolutely dominate it. There's no question that Braun is superior offensively, just like Ramirez is superior defensively.

How you could seriously turn down Fielder/Braun for Lee/Ramirez is beyond me once you consider the monetary reasons for taking the Brewsome Twosome (cheap and under control for years).

2007 Badger Football - 1-0

by Schwa on Jan 4, 2008 7:16 PM CST up reply actions

Braun isn't Pujols

Most of his damage was done in June and July, he was still good in August and September but not nearly as good. He will be a good player but more likely a 300-315,350-360 OBP 35-40 HR guy, but won't be a 330 plus/40 HR plus hitter. The league will catch up to him a bit, like they already kinda did the final two months of the season.

His numbers should be simliar to Ramirez next year,if Ramirez can play close to a fullseason. I think most Cubs fans would rather have those guys long term, but were not talking about long term were talking about next year. Right now if Lee/Ramirez are healthy they can put up very simliar numbers and are ALOT better defensivly.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 7:46 PM CST up reply actions

I think a lot of people misread Braun.

His power is absolutely for real, no doubt about it. He has light-tower power - hits a lot of fly balls and hits them with authority. He's only 23, and so he hasn't even entered into his prime years yet. And power tends to bloom late. He's athletic, too, and so he's likely to age better than Fielder, whose weight poses some real concerns about his development. He's a legitimate threat to break the single-season home run record when he gets into his late 20s.

It's his batting average that I would expect to regress to the mean, and heavily. He doesn't have the line drive rate to sustain his high batting average on balls in play. I'd expect his isolated power to either stay about at its current levels or mature a bit, and his average to drop. The question really is how much.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 4, 2008 8:12 PM CST up reply actions

I don't think

we'll be seeing anybody break that record for a while...as long as steriod testing and HGH are highly investigated from here on out.

I think Braun will be a 30+ HR guy, think Adam Dunn.

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Jan 4, 2008 9:04 PM CST up reply actions

Right, and...

... Braun isn't likely to be a third baseman for very long, either. He might be moved to LF as soon as this year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 4, 2008 9:19 PM CST up reply actions

You are seriously understimating the...

...ability of the Brewers to badly misjudge defense. Seriously, over half of that team is playing out of position. The mind reels.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 4, 2008 9:28 PM CST up reply actions

You're absolutely right.

Maybe I should just stop talking about this. Wouldn't want to give Ned Yost any ideas.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 5, 2008 4:57 AM CST up reply actions

This is an awful lot to bite off...

...in what is essentially a sidelight to the main conversation, but here goes:

Steroids and HGH are not magical pills that make you into super magnificent hitters all on their own. Probably the worst feature of our current steroid witch hunt is the way in which it misleads young people into overrating the impact of those substances, making them seem more appealing than they really are.

A lot of other factors (the size of ballparks, the juicing of the balls themselves, the tightening of the strike zone) has contributed to the increase in home runs, and none of those factors have materially declined. And our testing regimine in baseball is nowhere near as strong as, say, cycling - a sport where cheating is still rampant. George Mitchell didn't wave a magical fairy wand and make all of our troubles disappear.

I didn't say that it was likely or probable that Braun would beat the record - it's an impressive record. But the kid is an absolute monster of a home run hitter, and we don't need any more information than what we already have to realize that.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 4, 2008 9:27 PM CST up reply actions

I agree

on all points. I still don't think anybody will break the record.

Also, comparing him to Adam Dunn is fair. They are both threats to hit a homerun and both have terrible defense.

If anything I think Braun's numbers will regress next season.

THE FONZ HAS ARRIVED!

by amaru on Jan 4, 2008 9:53 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, but Braun makes a hell of a lot more

contact.

His average was almost 100 points higher last season.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 7:47 AM CST up reply actions

One season...

Is not enough to judge a player's value, period. Braun simply has NOT seen enough major league action for anyone to say he's a sure thing. Ramirez IS a sure thing, he's proven he can hit.

Judging players based on one year is why a lot of people hate Cubs fans for saying Marmol is going to dominate. Do we think he will? Yes. Do we KNOW he will? No.

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on Jan 4, 2008 8:53 PM CST up reply actions

Agree about Braun

His average and OBP could have dropped off if he played in another 40 something games.

Here are his monthly totals.

May-222,1 HR, 4 RBI's(6 for 27)

June-382,6 HR, 21 RBI's

July-345,11 HR, 25 RBI's

On August 1st Braun was hitting
342 18 HR, 49 RBI's, 388 OBP

August-287,7 HR, 18 RBI's
September-308, 9 HR,29 RBI's

So he's still a very good hitter, but I think pitchers figured how to get him out a bit. He will still hit 290-300s, with 30-40 HR, but his batting average and OBP from last year were inflated alot by when pitchers couldn't get him out in June and July. If he played another month I think they would have dropped off.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 9:08 PM CST up reply actions

Or...

It could just be that he was getting tired after his first full season in the minors. Or it could be that he's a poor cold weather hitter. Or he slumped a bit in August and rebounded well. There are any number of reasons he fell off a bit in August.

As for the defense. A-Ram was a terrible defender who became an adequate defender. Braun could improve with time (he cain't git much worse).

My main point is that Braun's first season in the majors was as good/better than A-Ram's BEST season.

(Sorry if I sound testy, but Braun saved my fantasy season and I have a bit of a Man-crush on him...)

Vote Santo!

by nuflattop on Jan 5, 2008 12:29 AM CST up reply actions

This article may be

the reason being I've never heard of him. Very unknowledgable baseball guy. If I hung out with him for 10 minutes, my Baseball IQ would drop 10 points.

PIE!!!

by LilLPLancer23 on Jan 4, 2008 6:24 PM CST reply actions

Brewers vs Cubs for next year

Lee vs Fielder- I give Fielder the same advantage, because I believe Lee will be a 30 HR plus power hitter this year, and is alot better defensivly.

Ramirez vs Braun- I give Ramirez the small edge because I believe offensive numbers will be closer next year, and Ramirez is much better defensivly. Braun is worst in the league bad at third base, and his numbers dropped off a little August and September.(after huge June and July).

Soriano vs ????- No matter who the Brewers bring in Soriano is going to be a huge upgrade over that player.

Fukudome vs Hart- I think it's fair to say both will be even next year, and Hart came off a pretty good year last season.

DeRosa vs Weeks- I give the small edge to DeRosa he had a simliar OBP and much better batting average, and is better defensivly as well.

Theriot vs Hardy- I pick Hardy by alot, he has alot more power, and simliar batting average/ OBP. Theriot has alot more speed, but HR power is worth more then SB. Hardy is also a better defender.

Pie/Fuld vs Hall- Hall wasn't all that good last year, so if Pie/Fuld are decent, I think Hall gets a small edge.

Soto vs Kendall- I give Soto the advantage(Soto took his job from Kendall last year anyways). I think Soto will hit better then Kendall and be much better defensivly.

So the line-up is pretty even, but I think we have a little better pitching and bullpen. The Brewers rotation isn't bad but their horrible defense really hurts their pitching staff.

Point is the Brewers still have all the same problems as they did last year. While the Cubs have improved offensivly and defensivly, so the Cubs have the advantage right now.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 6:54 PM CST reply actions

Who are you?

Why do I care about your opinion?

Aramis Ramirez has had one of the highest fielding percentages the last two seasons of any third baseman in the NL. Ryan Braun had the worst of any last season. He is plain awful at the corner.

Yes, Braun hit tremendously in the small sample size last season, but Aramis has proved that he can produce at a high level year in and year out--offensively and defensively.

The longevity and future for Braun is very bright, but keep in mind the CUBS still have Josh Vitters up and coming as the heir to the hot corner.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 7:52 AM CST up reply actions

Uhh...Baron, a little too much beer?

He's a poster to this forum, just like the rest of us.
He rated Ramirez above Braun, making exactly the same points you just did.

Free the upper deck!

by cubzfan on Jan 5, 2008 8:05 AM CST up reply actions

Perry is a big Cubs hater

So the Cubs have to have a big advantage over the Brewers for him to pick the Cubs as the best team in the Central.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 6:56 PM CST reply actions

I don't like Perry

but yes on the lineup, the Brewers beat the Cubs. They scored more runs last season and with their young guys still improving they probably will again. Anyone trying to argue for Lee over Fielder as a hitter isn't looking at the numbers. As a 23 year old last season Fielder hit .288/.395/.618. Braun's numbers as a 23 year old were .324/.370/.634.

As Perry does say though thanks to defense and pitching, the Cubs overall are better.

by rlpete on Jan 4, 2008 6:59 PM CST reply actions

I agree Brewers line-up is a little better

But I believe Soriano, Lee and Ramirez will have bigger years next year, and having Fukudome will help alot as well.

The Brewers scored 801 runs, and I don't see their line-up being much better next year. I think Braun will come back to earth a big, and don't think JJ Hardy will be as good. But their still a 790-810 run scored team.

The Cubs scored 753 runs last year, with Soriano having the worst month of his career(last April), and only playing in 135 games. Ramirez had the worst HR season since 02, and Derrek Lee had his worst HR and RBI season since 01. So if those guys have better years, and we had Soto/Fukudome to the mix for a fullseason I think we can be a 780-800 run scored team.

Yes Braun and Fielder are younger, and have a better future long term then Lee/Ramirez. But were talking about next year, and the age factor shouldn't be a important factor for next season. Plus by the team Lee/Ramirez/Soriano start declining alot Braun/Fielder will probably be on another team anyways.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 7:41 PM CST up reply actions

I still think you are stretching it

OK, even if pitchers catch up with Braun, the Brewers (barring injury) get Braun for 5 more weeks than last year. They had Craig Counsell at 3rd before Braun arrived. Even if Braun is slightly worse than last year having him all season will make up for any potential slowdown.

Overall, the Cubs are better but strictly looking at the batting lineup, I'll take the Brewers.

by rlpete on Jan 4, 2008 9:40 PM CST up reply actions

I agree

But look at the Brewers record before Braun got called up and after.

28-19- without Braun

55-60- with Braun

Yeah I know it's not Brauns fault they got worse, but I dunno how much better the Brewers record would be in the first 47 games even if they had Braun.

The Brewers line-up is better, but not by much is what I'm trying to say. Last year there was a pretty good gap between the two, this year it's kind of a small gap between the two.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 10:11 PM CST up reply actions

Hmmmm......

Ever think that perhaps Brauns' 26 errors and below .900 fielding percentage had a little to do with that maybe?

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:12 AM CST up reply actions

I dont care

who wrote this article, perry is right about prince fielder but far off on braun over a-ram.

"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra

by ChiCubsFever on Jan 4, 2008 8:02 PM CST reply actions

Hmmm.....

Braun: .324/.370/.634
A-Ram: .310/.366/.549

I hate defensing Perry who I don't care for but strictly looking at the lineup, the Brewers are better. He does state that due to defense and pitching (where the Cubs are significantly better), the Cubs should win the division.

by rlpete on Jan 4, 2008 9:44 PM CST up reply actions

Weeks over DeRosa

is what I don't get. Weeks has never played in 120 games in a season, and hit 235 last season. Sure his OBP was still high, but still simliar to DeRosa. Yeah I know Weeks has more potential, but DeRosa has been the better player the last two years.

Ramirez vs Braun is up for some debate since Braun never has hit that well over a fullseason, and if he played a full year his batting average/OBP could have dropped off.

But Fielder deserves to be ranked over Lee right now, since Fielder had a MVP like season, and Lee just had a good one. But that doesn't mean Lee can't put up those type of numbers when his Wrist is 100 percent.

The Brewers line-up should be about the same, and the Cubs should score 25-50 more runs next year IMO. Mix that with much better defense, better pitching and better manager, I really like our chances as is.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 8:59 PM CST reply actions

Why are you giving the Cubs the benefit

of possible improvement but not the Brewers:

Fielder: 24
Weeks: 25
Hardy: 25
Braun: 24
Hart: 26

Even Bill Hall who seems to have been around forever will only be 28 next year. The Cubs are a better overall team but you have to give the Brewers credit, they can mash the ball.

by rlpete on Jan 4, 2008 9:48 PM CST up reply actions

Because

The Cubs top three games had poor years compared to years they had over the last few years.

The Brewers hitters had huge years, it's almost impossible to think those guys could have better years even at there age. So most likely they will stay the same or have a small drop off.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 10:14 PM CST up reply actions

Lol.....

Have you ever played baseball? Since when is the "homerun" the most important aspect of offensive production?

Sure, Lee's RBI's still haven't reached the 120 level everyone envisions he should be at, but he still accounted for 91 runs with a line of .317/.400/.513............

The last 3 seasons, Lee has hit .321/.402/.550.

That's pretty good for a career .281 hitter.

And Aramis Ramirez? .310/.366/.549, 101 RBI? That looks pretty good to me.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:10 AM CST up reply actions

RBIs

RBI is not the most important stat in offensive efficiency. RBIs are (largely) a function of how many people get on base in front of you. It's one t of the Reasons Barry Bonds had such low RBI totals over the last few years (walks being the other). Roid issue aside, he's a hell of a hitter.

OBP, the percentage of the time a batter does not make an out, is the the best indicator of offensive performance.

(OPS is TWO stats...)

Vote Santo!

by nuflattop on Jan 5, 2008 12:16 PM CST up reply actions

RE:

"OBP, the percentage of the time a batter does not make an out"

Ok, than does a .400 OBP qualify as good? Furthermore, wouldn't you say that RBI's would be a more accurate measure of effectiveness than the HR? I would....

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions

RBIs are meaningless.

Home runs at least are a crude proxy for slugging. Really, just using OBP and SLG isn't any harder to look up than HR and RBI anymore, and they're a hell of a lot better predictors. If you absolutely need to use just one number, use OPS.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 5, 2008 8:55 PM CST up reply actions

RBI are meaningless?

How do you figure? OBP is meaningless. What good is getting on base if nobody drives you in. You can win a game with 1 hit, 1 HR, 1 RBI. You can't win a game with 3 hits, 3 BB, and 0 runs, can you? Sounds like people put more emphasis on these stupid stats then winning the game.

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 7, 2008 10:23 AM CST up reply actions

OBP IS more meaningful

OBP tells you how reliably the guy gets on base. RBI are flukie things because you need help to get them, so aren't a good indicator of the players reliability. if you've got two on and two out and your pinch hitting, for instance the guy with the higher OBP is more likely to draw a walk or get a hit or something to keep the inning alive, where a guy with a high RBI could be just as likely to strike out and end the inning. mind the the two stats often go hand-in-hand, but this is one of the times the SABRmetrics is actually more useful than more traditional stats.

by petrie on Jan 8, 2008 3:33 AM CST up reply actions

Useful for what?

It's not useful for actually winning the game. All these stats do is give you an idea of how productive a player is. Who cares? I want to see the Cubs win. How many times did the Cubs leave guys on base and couldn't get anybody to drive them in? RBI's win games. Like I said, 3 solo homeruns can win a game. 12 hits, 6 BB's and 0 runs doesn't.

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 8:08 AM CST up reply actions

You can score runs...

...without RBIs. Sac hits, sac flys and errors.

But anyway. What we're talking about here is, what statistics best correlate with run scoring? RBIs correlates almost precisely with run scoring because of its definition, but its predictive value sucks. RBIs aren't consistent for players between years the way rate stats like OBP are.

And if you look at baseball historically, teams with high OBPs tend to score runs more often - and it's a more consistant effect than things like AVG or even SLG.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 11:07 AM CST up reply actions

Fair Enough

"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 12:16 PM CST up reply actions

I know

I'm just saying both of these guys should hit more HR then they did last year. HR score the most runs. Don't you think if Lee hit 30 HR he would have had closer to 100 RBI's? How many doubles did Lee hit and left on base? But if you watch Derrek Lee you should know he is better then a 281 career hitter now. He made a adjustment in 05, and has hit very well(average wise since). So please don't throw out his "career" batting average. I'm not saying he was bad last year, he's just better then that power wise, because his wrist wasn't 100 percent in the first half.

Same goes with Ramirez the 101 he wasn't bad but if he hits 7-10 more HR like he did the last few years he's driving in 115-120.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 5, 2008 12:19 PM CST up reply actions

Oh, and sorry for trolling you earlier....

I sounded like a prick and I was really tired and bored.......I don't want to come off like "that guy"........

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions

appearently he doesn't believe in defense

the Brewers defense was so bad last year they probably added another full run to each of their started ERAs last year. Fielder's only a firstbaseman because they don't have a DH and the only thing keeping Braun from being the worst defender in the division is the fact that Adam Dunn hasn't been traded yet. Hardy and Weeks aren't much better. even if Ben Sheets doesn't blow his arm out again he'll age about three years.

i also don't see what gives the Brewers the edge is the Bench... Counsell nor Kapler can hit a ball off a tee anymore, or run worth anything.

oh yeah, and didn't Fielder and Braun have abysmal strikout rates?

by petrie on Jan 4, 2008 9:04 PM CST reply actions

Perry evaluates defense...

...seperately from offense in his article. So when he says Bruan has more value than Ramirez, he only means so on offense. I don't know if that's the "right" way to look at a lineup, but it's not anything worth getting worked up over.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 4, 2008 9:17 PM CST up reply actions

Uh...

If the defense is bad, wouldn't that lead to UNearned runs, nt affecting the Earned Run Average?

Vote Santo!

by nuflattop on Jan 8, 2008 11:05 PM CST up reply actions

sorta'

but it also leads to longer innings and higher pitch counts for pitchers, more baserunners, more bullpen innings, and more chances to cough up a game. the Brewers Defense probably tacked on another full run to the ERA of the entire starting rotation last year.

Greg Maddux always said the best pitchers are the ones who aren't afraid to put the ball in play, and if the Brewers pitchers don't trust their infielders, they become that much less effective.

by petrie on Jan 8, 2008 11:55 PM CST up reply actions

Brewers defense

Is their biggest weakness(next to Yost). Why do you think Capuano, Bush, Suppan and others had such poor numbers.

That defense is just as bad as it was last season right now. So I don't see their pitching improving. Braun at third, Weeks at second, Fielder at first, Hall in CF and Kendall at C is a pitchers nightmare. Hardy is good at short, and Hart is good in RF, but other then that its a horrible defensive team.

The advantage the Brewers had over the Cubs last year was offense, but the Cubs had much better SP,bullpen,manager,defense and won the division. So far this offseason the Cubs have improved the defense even more, with Soto catching for a full year, Pie in CF and Fukudome in RF, which should help the pitching staff. The Brewers probably still have a little better line-up but if the Cubs main three have better years(like they should), and with adding Soto/Fukudome to the team all year. It should make the line-ups alot closer, and the Cubs still have all the other advantages over the Brewers, which will put them in pretty good shape.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 9:16 PM CST reply actions

I think Perry was comparing the lineups

offensively only. There's no doubt that Fielder is a better hitter than Derrek Lee at this point and there's little doubt that Ryan Braun is a superior hitter to Aramis Ramirez as well. It's OK to be a Cubs fan and admit when another team has some better offensive players.

However, when you consider defense, both Lee and Ramirez are better than the Brewers counterparts and Perry did defense separately. In fact, Ryan Braun is so bad defensively he's the equivalent of Bill Mueller at 3rd base in terms of WARP. Ramirez had nearly twice the WARP3 that Braun had and Lee had a 8.3 WARP3 while Fielder had a 7.9. WARP considers defense.

Corey Hart is a fantastic player and, perhaps, the best of the young position players the Brewers have since Fielder, Weeks and Braun are so bad on defense that all 3 of them are future DHs. I don't think there's a chance in hell that Fukudome comes even remotely close to putting up the numbers Corey Hart will next season. So if you want to bash Dayn Perry, do so because he thinks Hart and Fukudome are a push. Hart posted a 9.0 WARP3 in 2007. That would have made him the 2nd most productive player on the Cubs behind Ramirez who posted a 9.1 WARP3. Fukudome will have a good season if he posts a 5.5 WARP3. There's no comparison between the two. Just as there is no overall comparison between Braun and Ramirez.

by Maddog on Jan 4, 2008 10:34 PM CST reply actions

Hart vs Fukudome?

Hart had a 892, you don't think Fukudome can have a 850-860 OPS next year? Plus Fukudome is every bit as good defensivly as Hart if not better.

Fukudome had OPS of 963(playing hurt),1091,1020 his last three years in Japan. So I don't think unrealistic to say he could have a OPS around 860 or higher. I think Perry was more comparing the two from batting average, OBP and OPS, and obviously he thinks highly of Fukudome.But can you blame Perry for not using WARP3? Who would think Hart would be worth more then Braun and Fielder.?

What do you think Fukudome will do next year?

by cubsfan25 on Jan 4, 2008 10:57 PM CST reply actions

Petcota on Fukudome/Hart

PETCOTA projection for Fukudome is .289/.401/.504. Hart's numbers his first full year in the majors were .295/.353/.539. PETCOTA predicted .288/.349/.514 for Hart in 2007, and predicted .285/.354/.517 for him in 2008.

If Fukudome hits close to Petcota predictions(many think he will hit in that range), you can easily say push.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 5, 2008 2:51 AM CST up reply actions

PECOTA, not PETCODA

by Thelonious on Jan 5, 2008 3:34 AM CST up reply actions

Thank you for correcting this n00b, Thelonious ;)

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:15 AM CST up reply actions

And don't put too much stock into PECOTA....

They LOVED Pie last season.......

Pie was no where NEAR the .288/.342/.480 with 19 HR, 18 SB, 71 RBI, 84 runs and 34 doubles they projected for 2007.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:17 AM CST up reply actions

I love arguments like yours.

This system projected Player A to be great and he sucked therefore the entire system sucks. So typical of someone like you.

by Maddog on Jan 5, 2008 10:09 AM CST up reply actions

Did I say that the system is completely flawed?

No. That wasn't my indication what-so-ever. I said "don't put too much stock into it". Meaning take it with a grain of salt. It is a good barometer of trends in player's careers to an extent, but isn't always accurate.

At the end of the day, it is still just a guess.

And someone like me? I don't understand where that came from and how my past on this board would dictate a statement of that nature.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 11:24 AM CST up reply actions

We don't know with Pie

Honestly did the guy get a chance last year? He started for what a week and half then was sent back to Triple A in early May? Then he came back in early June and started for three weeks and half weeks and was sent back to Triple A. Then when he came back in August he was pretty much a bench player.If we keep him playing everyday who knows maybe he figures it out. For example Kevin Kouzmanoff hit 204 in his first 137 AB's last year, but figured it out in the second half and ended up hittting 275. But I know some don't think Pie would have figured it out with his swing the way it was last year, and the Cubs probably feel the same since they were trying ot change it this winter.

The point is Pie playing last year was a very small sample size, and he should not be judged by it IMO.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 5, 2008 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

PECOTA projections for 2008

aren't out yet. You're using the projections based on his career through 2006. He had a breakout season and his numbers for 2008 will reflect that.

by Maddog on Jan 5, 2008 10:10 AM CST up reply actions

Ok...

Hart did have an .892 OPS and I think it's reasonable to project that Fukudome could have an .850 OPS. Fukudome is likely to be better defensively so the WARP3s may be similar, but Hart is also younger whereas Fukudome is older. One can reasonably expect Hart to improve quite a bit (.910 OPS) and Fukudome to decline a bit (.835 OPS).

And Dayn Perry writes for Baseball Prospectus so he's very familiar with WARP3.

by Maddog on Jan 5, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions

Wrote for.

And WARP3, being based on the nearly meaningless FRAR stat, is about this close to worthless.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 5, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions

what difference does it make?

when fielder and braun have expired contracts, they are definately going to other teams. Milwaukee doesn't have the money to give Braun, Fielder, and Hart the contracts they want

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 4, 2008 11:13 PM CST reply actions

I think the Cubs have the edge...

...if Wood and Prior can remain healthy.

by Thelonious on Jan 5, 2008 3:32 AM CST reply actions

Hah

You jester you.

"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"

by cubs0505 on Jan 5, 2008 4:22 AM CST up reply actions

Brewers fans are funny

http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/topic/10154/t/Dayn-Perry-s-Cubs-vs-Brewers-comparison.html

They talk up Gallardo as the next Cy Young winner, and think Villunueva is going to be a very good SP. Don't get me wrong they have potential to be pretty good but I dunno about that good. But then they say Hill was a fluke, and will comeback to earth next year, and think Marshall won't be as good next year. Talk about bias? Hill has just as much potential has Gallardo and showed that last season, and I don't see Villanueva with anymore potential then Marshall. But it won't matter anyways because the Cubs pitchers will probably continue to do better until the Brewers fix the defense. That seems impossible to do right now unless they wanna get rid a few of their good hitters.

Some of them actually debate Kendall might be as good as Soto? If so he wouldn't have gotten bench for Soto and would have still be on the Cubs right? Do they think the Cubs scouts and every baseball expert is stupid?

I can understand them being upset with the Hart vs Fukudome Push, we would be upset if it was the oppsite way. But nobody knows for sure, and I'm sure Perry is just on what most experts/scouts project for Fukudome next year and thats a push with Hart.

They also were upset about Hall barely beating out Pie for CF. Do they realize Hall wasn't so good last year? Yes I know Pie was horrible in his 170 AB's. But the guy is a high quality prospect, and if he even shows half of his talent in the big leagues next year. I dunno if Perry was so far off.

Last but not least their actually saying Perry is being biased on the Cubs side? Does he know that Perry hates the Cubs?

by cubsfan25 on Jan 5, 2008 4:33 AM CST reply actions

Just so you are aware.....

Yovani Gallardo will be 22 early this year while Carlos Villanueva just turned 24.

Rich Hill will be 28, you are right that they are likely biased--as are we all for our favorite teams to some extent--but Gallardo very well could become a Cy Young contender one day. He had his ups and downs in his first season in MLB, but has many years to grow.

But I agree with you that saying Rich Hill will comeback down to earth is ignorant. Hill will only improve as his confidence grows and his change up continues to develop. Plus, Rich had one of the--if not the--lowest run support of any starter in baseball.

Just think what Rich could accomplish with a 3 run lead.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Jan 5, 2008 8:32 AM CST up reply actions

I agree that Gallardo will be good

But in 08 Rich Hill will probably be just as good IMO. I know Villanueva is young and could be a good middle of the rotation starter one day. But they again underrate Sean Marshall and say he will come back to earth. I don't see much difference between the two guys potential wise.

The way I look at the rotation next year

Zambrano vs Sheets- Edge Zambrano, because of health, but I really think we will see the 05/06 not the 3.95 era pitcher he was last year.

Hill vs Gallardo- I say even, I think both will be in the 350s-360s era range. Even Bill James projects simliar numbers next season.

Lilly vs Suppan- no question Lilly, even if his era does go up 20-25 points.

4-5 spots
Marquis
Marshall/Dempster/Hart/Gallagher

Bush/Capuano
Villanueva/Vargas/Parra

Marquis is just as questionable as Capuano/Bush next year, and was better last season, but I'll call that even. Marshall/Dempster vs Villanueva/Vargas is also even in my eyes.

The funny thing is Brewers fans talk about the great depth they have in their rotation, and say the Cubs don't. But in all honestly they just have one more questionable spare starter then us.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 5, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions

Gallardo

is the real deal, but their starting rotation falls off pretty fast after that. Sheets will get hurt again (doesn't think he needs to stay in shape), and Capuano needs to get the hell away from Mike Maddux who is ruining his control and confidence. Suppon will be the middle-to-back of the rotation guy he is. Villanueva will contribute, but doesn't have knock out stuff.

The big thing going against the Brewers is that they DO NOT have the organizational strength neither in the coaching staff nor in veteran players to make adjustments through out the season. I look for the Brewers to fade in the second half.

Plus, I bet Hall is traded for a 3B.

"There's not an American in this country free until every one of us is free." --Jackie Robinson

by Mad Town Cubs Fan on Jan 5, 2008 1:00 PM CST up reply actions

Not ONE of you

cited the main difference. I am ashamed by you all. ;)

NED YOST or LOUUUUUUUUUUU!!

Lou will be improved this year and gets the jump on knowing his team with a year+ under his belt.

The difference was magnified during the last 60 days of the season and when the teams played head-to-head near the end.

Dayn Perry predicted the Brew would win the Central last year. He is a "tool", completely.

Wait 'til next year. And the next. And the Next. And the next after that too.

by TheEman on Jan 5, 2008 8:42 AM CST reply actions

This is something...

I think Brewer fans would actually agree with Cub fans about, coaching.

"I love this world. I hope hell is as much fun!"

by HIGGY on Jan 7, 2008 8:27 AM CST up reply actions

suuuure

they'd agree on that as much as you'd vote Tony La Russa over Sweet Lou for Manager of the Year. they're just as blind to reality as we are sometimes.

by petrie on Jan 8, 2008 3:35 AM CST up reply actions