A Hall Of A Day
This afternoon, at 1 pm CT, we will find out who (if anyone) will be inducted into the Hall of Fame on July 27.
Disregarding my personal feelings about who should get in for a moment, here's my prediction, based on some articles I've read from writers revealing who they voted for:
Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson and Jim Rice will be elected. Bert Blyleven won't; neither will anyone else.
I'll update this post with the actual electees shortly after 1 pm CT. In the meantime, discuss.
UPDATE [2008-1-8 13:01:32 by Al]: Goose Gossage got in, and that's it. Looks like Keith Law had it scoped out.
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Keith Law has collected approx 20%...
For those of us who are fans of Dawson, lets hope his numbers dont add up!
http://www.meadowparty.com/blog/
Interesting post.
Dawson, based on that, is closer than last year. If that includes the Chicago Tribune writers, then he may not get in, since they all voted for him. If it doesn't, he may have a pretty good shot.
I believe the Trib writers are included
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:22 AM CST up reply actions
I'm a Hawk fan
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:24 AM CST up reply actions
So OBP should be the only criterion?
His lack of walks was pretty amazing.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:40 AM CST up reply actions
Well of course
I chose those numbers because
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions
He made outs
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
Give me a break.
.279/.323/.482
Okay, that's not spectacular for a single-season triple slash, especially from a corner outfielder. But that's also oversimplifying the matter. Dawson was able to keep playing until he was 41, and was still productive in his age 41 season.
When analyzing people for the Hall, I always start off at the Keltner list, Bill James's list of criteria for evaluating entry. #5 is "Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?" Dawson did that, and it is NOT a black mark. But those years have an impact on his triple slash numbers.
If we want to talk rate stats, we can try looking at his best 10-year stretch, which (since to be eligible to the Hall you need to play for 10 seasons) lets us look at players without penalizing some of them for longevity.
Dawson's best 10-year stretch:
.285/.346/.497
Compare to Jim Rice.
Career: .298/.352/.502
Rice certainly looks better, right? Except for the fact that Rice's last year was his age 36 season, where he put up a pathetic 70 OPS+. As best I can tell, Rice was a defensive liability - he split time at DH every single season he played. Dawson was a premium defender for much of his prime. Dawson had a longer career, and a more productive prime.
On-base percentage is a useful metric; it's not a suicide pact. Its high correlation with run scoring makes it valuable, but it's not the only element to run scoring. Without getting too far into the weeds on Runs Created and BaseRuns and all that fun stuff, you need base runners and then you need to advance them. Dawson was a great slugger, a premium defender and played 20 seasons, a vast majority of them good to great. He beats Rice hands-down; if there's room for Rice in the Hall there needs to be room for Dawson.
I don't think Rice belongs, and I'm on the fence about Dawson - to be quite frank I'm a lot more worried about the amazing slighting of Tim Raines by HoF voters to put too much thought into the question. But to waive around a single number like it's a religious symbol isn't baseball analysis, it's alchemy or astrology.
the stolen bases do count
Give me a break.
His low number of career walks is surprising, especially for a hitter as feared as he was. The lack of a World Series appearance hurts him too, even though all writers say that doesn't sway them. It does. Eventually he'll get there, even if it's not this year.
And.....
Speaking of corner outfielders...compare Dawson and Billy Williams (a HOF no-brainer, by the way) in career stats, and then tell me Dawson does not belong. Both were corner outfielders. Very similar in career offensive numbers, but then throw in the stolen bases, and defensive prowess. Easy. Very easy.
You're rigth
Do the research, getting on base is a skill. Walks don't just happen to "feared" players. Go to baseball-reference.com and look up guys like Max Bishop, Eddie Stanky, Brett Butler, Eddie Joost. These guys all drew walks despite being very weak hitters. In the case of Bishop, he hit in front of 3 HOFers and still drew 100 walks a year.
Hawk was a very good player. He should not be a HOFer.
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions
I guess my point was
The point is did the player make HOF contributions
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
I know I'm wasting my time.....
Yes, getting on base is a skill, as you correctly pointed out. Therefore, I get what you're saying about Dawson's OBP. I just think it's obvious when you look through the HOF roster that most players elected had weaknesses in their game. Very few did everything well. It's not your job to defend HOF inductees that someone else elected, I know, but I just think the OBP argument is nitpicking one facet of Dawson's game when he was great in all other areas despite being on bad knees his whole career. Anyway, we'll agree to disagree, and I'm glad we at least agree that Dawson will get in eventually.
I can agree to disagree
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions
Agree on Perez
Regarding Dawson; I look at the total package, and he was a very good player. He could beat you with his legs, play in the field and his bat. Rice was a better hitter, but if I had to choose either one in their prime, I take Dawson. His OBP is low for a HOF player, but I think he makes up for it in other areas.
Low for a HOF player?
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
The Hall of Fame voting inbitters me
Somewhere Joe Morgan is laughing hie pompous smug laugh!
HOF in five plus years
Go Hawk!!! Hopefully this will be the year.
HOF
On this ballot...
The HoF balloting system is seriously flawed. Years ago, the balloting was given to the BBWAA because it was assumed that they were the only people who would have seen everyone play enough times to know how good they were. This, of course, was in the pre-television era.
There has to be a way to make this better. Unfortunately, the HoF board of directors is filled with dinosaurs who don't want to cede power to anyone else.
They could fix this, or MLB could (even though the Hall is an independent organization, MLB could wield power if they wanted to), but no one seems interested, despite widespread disgust with the way the voting is handled.
Not to mention the opposite that
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:30 AM CST up reply actions
Only Goose
As long as it's only baseball writers who do have a "dinosaur" mentality when it comes to voting, a lot of players who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame are going to be left out. Jim Rice is a prime example. The main reason Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame now is because a lot of baseball writers just didn't like Jim Rice.
I posed a question in a post above about the Hall of Fame five years from now. Assuming Bonds and Clemens retired now, there will be baseball writers who will never vote either one of them into the Hall of Fame. When it's clear that baseball had a problem for 20 years with performance-enhancing drugs and steroids.
I'm not saying give the vote to the fans, but they have to have a new way. Every era has its own problems.
by AlabamaCubFan on Jan 8, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
There are a lot of ex-players on the veterans
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions
Veterans Committee is living HOFers
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:27 AM CST up reply actions
Actually
well...
I personally think the baseball writers do a pretty damn good job. I believe the "first ballot" concept is pretty stupid but I do understand that over a 15-year period, in the mind or voters, someone can go from being a non-HoF player to a HoF player when looking at it from a historical viewpoint.
Yes, there are a handful of players who are debatable that are both in and not in the hall. But the thing is that they are debatable. It is debatable that Ron Santo, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven and Goose Gossage are Hall of Famers. All of these guys are borderline, certainly tremendous ballplayers, but their HoF status is debatable. I, for one, would much rather have a few players not make than have a Hall of Fame that is watered down. It should be exceedingly difficult to get into the Hall.
DmL
Really?
Blyleven...
He's not in because he's not likeable, and rubbed a lot of the writers the wrong way. Yet another reason the BBWAA should be removed from this.
I agree
same holds true for our beloved...
The judges...
DmL
Agreed
The baseball writers pretty much suck at this.
You seriously mean to tell me Scooter Rizzuto belongs in the Hall, but Tim Raines doesn't? Really?
Seriously - Keith Law and Rob Neyer can't make it in to the BBWAA because they don't go to enough games, and yet Woody Paige is a member. Because he USED to be a beat writer, and so he's friendly with his regional chapter director. Absurdist. The baseball writers seem so firmly committed to their own irrelevance it's shocking. No matter who gets in today, it's a sad day for baseball, because we continue to let the Good Old Boys network of regional BBWAA directors dictate who is worthy and who is not to be in the Hall of Fame.
Loud, sustained applause.
The evil, nasty, east coast media
The East coast thing is so old.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
Who brought up that?
To be quite frank - the BBWAA is more devoted to the cause of protecting newspaper beat writers than it is of preserving the history of baseball. Which isn't a sin, per se - that's the organization's reason for existing, after all.
But that doesn't mean that we should continue letting them be the arbiters of baseball's historical record.
You brought that up
Ex-players? They've voted in Rizzuto and kept out Santo. Fans? Maybe. If you want to go to Cooperstown and see the Jody Davis and Keith Moreland plaques. It ain't perfect but some of the hyperbole about how downright rotten it is is over the top.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
Again...
And again, those who want the coaches, veterans, managers, players, etc vote, I'll remind you two things. First is that it has been eminently harder to get in via the Veterans Committee, which is composed to former players. Secondly, in 1999, the managers voted Rafael Palmiero the gold glove award winner at first base in the AL... after only playing 28 games at first base, the rest at DH. There is no perfect voting body. I do believe that the BBWAA has, on the balance, done a good job. Thats not to say that it doesn't need tweaking in who is allowed to vote (i.e. should Dan McGrath, who hasn't been on a baseball beat in God knows how long get a ballot?).
DmL
"Tweaking"?
That has about as much chance of happening as me being named Cubs closer in 2008.
The baseball HoF...
1B - 21
3B - 13
C - 16
2B - 18
SS - 23
LF - 19
RF - 21
CF - 25
This isn't just about Santo; the Hall of Fame is simply not friendly to third basemen. It's weird and it's inexplicable and it's infuriating. Someone needs to put out the memo that third base is more difficult defensively than 1B, LF and RF.
To be fair...
Not that the writers have been all that good, but almost without fail the worst Hall selections have come from the veteran's committee. (which I guess makes sense to some degree, since the writers get the "easier" selections by virtue of going first)
I agree
I'm with DmL, I'm ok with the writers but maybe something needs to be done again with the veterans committee. Seems like they'll never add anyone.
And who would you replace the writers with?
There is no perfect group of people to do this. You can argue that Blyleven isn't in because he wasn't nice to the press while someone might argue that Gary Carter IS in because he was such a non-stop ass kisser of the press.
Players have their own prejudices too. I think Santo's heel-clicking act rubbed a lot of his contemporaries the wrong way. At a time when players would exchange a palm slap after a home run, Santo's clowning after wins went beyond bush league to outright buffoonery. But should it keep him out of the Hall? No.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
Neyer disagrees
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
Bulls---t
Don't give the writers a pass by arguing that Santo's "borderline". Unless you have a Hall of Fame with a membership of less than 3 position players per position, he's a Hall of Famer (and even at that number, he probably would be in the Hall of Fame as he was in the top three for a long long time). The Internet Virtual Hall of Fame elected him on the first ballot.
by frustratedfan on Jan 8, 2008 10:37 PM CST up reply actions
Dawson's Hat
by mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:37 AM CST reply actions
re: the hawk
I assume...
Good question.
It's up to the Hall -- they took this choice away from the player after a few celebrated incidents in the 90's (Gary Carter insisting he go in as a Met, the prime example; the Hall did the right thing and put him in as an Expo).
Incidentally, it's the cap rather than the jersey -- that's how they are depicted on their HoF plaques.
right
I have seen the negro league museum in KC, however. It was outstanding.
I've heard that...
My guess
Re: Cubs vs. Expos
I was in a bar in Canada once, during the baseball playoffs (this was in Toronto too, so we're talking about a city that actually has a baseball team), and they had a Hockey pre-season game on rather than the baseball playoffs. Hockey is like ice pornography to the average canadian, and baseball is the thing they watch after they've finished their business, while they're waiting to have another go, as it were.
Phenomenal line
i am going to remember that one
all jokes aside the toronto sports fan is not indicative of the average canadian sports fan. and the city of montreal is not definitely like the rest of canada especially rural canada. most of the guys i know and grew up with are hardcore sports fans in general and knowledgeable on all sports not just hockey. that being said i am going to watch montreal and chicago on tsn tonight. go habs.
oh, I know
I need to be nice to you canadians. As a 22 year old, I'm one small military draft away from becoming the newest resident north of the border.
To be fair
There is nothing more dreadful in sports than the NFL exhibition season--yet people watch it in droves.
I think Goose gets in...
I just have this feeling that too many people have Dawson and Rice joined at the hip - that seems to be a very popular argument. Sometimes the group thing can be a good dynamic, but I think this time it's going to hurt both Dawson and Rice. Voters are going to want one or the other, but feel like if they vote for one, they'll have to vote for the other, then they'll overthink the situation, and vote for neither.
On the plus side, maybe all this steroid talk will convince some of these dinosaur writers that here are a couple of bona fide sluggers who did it the old-fashioned way (interpret that however you want - my guess is yeah, maybe greenies played a part, but it wasn't as out of control as today's environment seems to be. Maybe that's just wishful thinking). Anyway, a little steroid perspective might have these self-absorbed writers thinking here's a chance to make a statement to today's juicers.
Pretty asinine thinking if you ask me, but hey, if it gets Hawk (and Rice) in, I'm all for it.
Unfortunately, I think Blyleven ends up a distant fourth. Which is a shame, as he should be in there.
An interesting sub-plot will be McGwire's percentage - is it lower than last year because of the expanding steroid scandal or is it higher because some voters felt he was a HoFer all along but wanted to punish him last year for his role in all this. I think it will be higher, but not by much.
Dawson....
Slight quibble...
Now, I agree that, all-in-all, Dawson was better (considering longevity, defense, and speed). And who knows how much difference playing in Boston aided Rice.
Amphetamines were probably more prevalent
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 1:21 PM CST up reply actions
Regarding the HOF and the steroid era
Guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were certainly on pace for the HOF prior to the start of their "alleged" use of performance enhancing drugs late in their careers. Had they simply retired prior to that point in time, they would likely be first ballot HOFers.
The list of these players may continue to grow, as we find out more about this era, however their achievements in the game cannot simply be erased.
Should the HOF create a new section in the building devoted to the career worthy steroid era players, highlighting their achievements and explaining their controversy, without actually giving them the honored bronze bust?
OFF TOPIC: Don't hate on me
This is for Spring Training games BTW
ok.
They usually announce it...
Kasey
That's the classic debate...
So, is Jack Morris more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Blyleven because he's by far the more famous pitcher of his era? Or is Blyleven more deserving because he was the better pitcher?
It's actually a pretty interesting question if you ask me.
This is the problem
From the hall of fame website:
Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.
I don't think that leaves much room for a slightly better than average pitcher (Career ERA+ of 105) who is coming in on the strength of the fame garnered through one exceptional start in the playoffs.
How...
by Kyle Turney on Jan 8, 2008 11:02 AM CST reply actions
Blyleven
When you look at 287 wins, 3,700 strikeouts, the career ERA of 3.31, and the huge number of complete games and shutouts, he looks like a no-brainer. But when you look at the year-by-year numbers, he really only had 2 dominant win-loss seasons (one 19-7, one 17-5). His only 20 win season he had 17 losses, and there just seem to be too many seasons in there where he lost more than he won. Now I realize that wins and losses for pitchers can be deceiving, and given his career ERA, I'm sure he lost a lot of 1-0, 2-1 games. He seems to be the kind of pitcher who was consistently reliable over a period of many years, very tough and durable, racked up a lot of innings, but over the course of his career was rarely, if ever, dominating, and never really won any major awards. Again, I am no Blyleven expert, so I'm going strictly by numbers here. At the end of the day, though, 287 victories would have to, I believe, win out over all else and merit induction.
You've done a good job of research...
For example, had he pitched for the Dodgers, Reds, or A's, or Yankees, he'd have had a lot more national exposure during his prime years.
But he had 10 seasons with an ERA+ of 125 or better, and 5 seasons with an ERA+ of 140 or better. That's pretty darn fantastic. He just happened to play for teams that didn't score runs, and thus his record didn't stand up.
The sad thing for him is that, had he managed just 13 more wins, he'd be a sure-fire HOF. And he had plenty of seasons where he pitched well enough to get those 13 wins but was let down by his team.
True
wins...meh
Example:
Pitcher A won 14
Pitcher B won 13
Pitcher A is Jason Marquis on the 2006 Cardinals with a 6.02(!) ERA!
Pitcher B is Roger Clemens on the 2005 Astros in one of the best pitching performances in the history of baseball. ERA+ was 226!!!
Blyleven was a stud: Breaking down years by ERA+, here are his total years above...
150 - 2
140 - 5
130 - 6
120 - 11
I might as well just give credit where it is due. Look here:
http://vegaswatch.net/2008/01/its-almost-over.html
That article breaks down why Blyleven should be in even though he probably won't and why Jack Morris probably will even though he is doing it on the strength of one no-hitter and that game 7 against the braves.
Oh and also... someone is voting for Morris because he started 14 Opening day games. Wow...just, wow. That is the worst argument of all time for anything ever.
Basically, either Blyleven needs to be in with the current standards, or the standards need to become stricter and then he should be left out.
I read an interesting article a while back about the HOF and how it would mean something if they restricted it to 50 or 100 players and then every time someone came up for a vote, they would have to take someone out of the HOF to get in. It would be interesting to see but it would help ensure that only the best players would actually be in.
here's how I rationalize it:
Since we rightly admit these dominant pitchers who suffered from relatively short careers, I think it's only fair that we include their counterparts. Blyleven's lack of relative dominance should be more than made up for by his ERA throughout such a prolific career, his number of CG shutouts, his lofty rank on the career strikeout list, his IP, and finally his high career win total.
I think it speaks to our love of round numbers that Blyleven has been thus far ignored by HOF voters by ending his career 13 games shy of 300 wins. He was basically one more decent season away from accumulating the necessary win total to virtually assure his inclusion in the club. Personally, i consider the wins too much either way. If anything. 287 wins should help his case, not hurt it.
Now that I've gone to the trouble to make Blyleven's case, allow me to bash the HOF: It's a sham organization anyway. It's just as inconsistent as anything else. There are plenty of relatively weak hitting infielders on the plaques in that museum. Honestly, I don't care how good Luis Aparicio's glove was: his offensive stats suck (even for his pitching dominated era). His career OPS+ is 82!
correction:
should be:
Personally, i don't consider the wins too much either way.
Also, looking at Blyleven's stats, he really was pretty dominant, so I feel like I kinda wasted my time with my argument above. Forget the wins, as the poster above pointed out, Blyleven pitched several seasons with a very impressive ERA+ (and he threw a ton of innings to boot).
Man, I love it
by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions
Let me give you a number
How in the world can he have 60 shutouts and not be dominating?
The Cy Young award argument, which you don't make but others do, is absolute bullcrap. In 1984 Blyleven won 19 games for a wretched 75 win Indians team. If he'd have won one more game, they would have given him the Cy Young. But the unwritten rule back then was that starting pitchers had to win 20 to get the Cy Young and people were fascinated with closers. He finished third behind Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry, the closers for the two division winning teams. So now we should punish Blyleven again because the sportswriters of the eighties were morons? (Heck, it's the same guys voting today for the hall.)
Blyleven pitched for two World Champions (Pirates '79, Twins '87) but neither one was a dominating team. Most of the rest of his career was played for the crummy Twins teams of the seventies and the absolutely dreadful Indians teams of the early eighties.
If he'd have pitched for Detroit like Jack Morris did, he'd have gotten 320 wins and we wouldn't be having this conversation.
People keep going back to the wins and losses thing. I don't know how many times we have to beat it into people's heads that those are team stats.
by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions
Thats the number that swayed me
Thats a shutout every 11.5 games. Pretty impressive
Look Carefully at the Numbers.
by frustratedfan on Jan 8, 2008 10:42 PM CST up reply actions
Dawson...
You mean for the first time?
Steve Avery, Jay Bell, Jason Bere, Mike Bordick, John Burkett, David Cone, Omar Daal, Ron Gant, Joe Girardi, Mark Grace, Mark Guthrie, Bill Haselman, Rickey Henderson, Trenidad Hubbard (yes! he played 10 seasons), Todd Hundley, Brian L. Hunter, Felix Jose, Chad Kreuter, Keith Lockhart, Pat Mahomes, Al Martin, Orlando Merced, Troy O'Leary, Jesse Orosco, Lance Painter, Dean Palmer, Craig Paquette, Dan Plesac, Tom Prince, Jeff Reboulet, Rick Reed, Rich Rodriguez, Terry Shumpert, Luis Sojo, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Walbeck, Matt Williams, Kevin Young
Those are all the players who meet the qualifications: play 10 seasons, be retired five years (retired at the end of the 2003 season).
Other than Rickey Henderson, there's not a single player on that list who rates induction.
The following players from this year's ballot got less than 5% of the vote and will be dropped from future ballots: Rod Beck, Travis Fryman, Robb Nen, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Todd Stottlemyre, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson. Harold Baines got 5.2% and stays on the ballot; Mark McGwire got 23.6%, about the same as last year.
Complete 2008 voting is here.
You mean, you wouldn't vote for Felix Jose!
He's in, just to see the jheri curl's in bronze!
How many votes...
You sure Ricky is "retired"?
here is a list for the future
just glancing at those lists
- agree on Ricky... I'd expect 1st ballot; nobody else to speak of
- Barry Larkin will be interesting... he had some dominating years for a SS. Between his age 25 year and age 34 year his OPS+ was over 130 7 times and had years of 154 and 143. Also, as much as I dislike the award because of how it is handled, he did win 3 gold gloves.
Roberto Alomar might as well but who knows.
2011: Jeff Bagwell - The only question for me is how many years it takes. He was probably better than you realize. It surprised me. Between 1991 and 2002, inclusive, his OPS+ was NEVER below 130. In those 12 seasons, it was above 150 half the time. His career high was 213. He was a monster. Better than I realized. Wow.
Juan Gonzalez will be an interesting case going forward. He was a beast for 11 seasons with 2 good seasons mixed in during the first 13 years of his career. Obviously injuries slowed him down. How much does that hurt him? Take a look at his stats here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gonzaju03.shtml
Tino Martinez? I'd say no.
Rafael Palmeiro... Need I say more. He's in on the first ballot based on stats alone. How much does the steroids issue hurt him?
Larry Walker... Had many many incredible seasons. Interestingly, in 1997, his best year, his stats were actually better away from Coors. However, for the most part the splits were somewhat wide. It's very similar to Jim Rice (how many voters do you think know that? His career splits are .320/.374/.546 home vs. .277/.330/.459 away). I guess voters will have to decide how much the stadium affected his stats.
At the same time, I suppose OPS+ accounts for stadium factors and his OPS+ numbers are pretty exceptional.
2011 is a pretty good first time HOF voting class.
2012: nobody from the list the hall provides.
I don't think Alomar will have any problems
I for one, will look forward to that day, because Joe Morgan will then be the THIRD best modern-day second baseman in the Hall of Fame. heh heh heh heh....
Alomar is a lock for the HOF...
If Ryno got in...
Wasn't the Hawk
Goose in, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven closer
Rich Gossage 466 85.80%
Jim Rice 392 72.20%
Andre Dawson 358 65.90%
Bert Blyleven 336 61.90%
Lee Smith 235 43.30%
Jack Morris 233 42.90%
Tommy John 158 29.10%
Tim Raines 132 24.30%
Mark McGwire 128 23.60%
Alan Trammell 99 18.20%
Dave Concepcion 88 16.20%
Don Mattingly 86 15.80%
Dave Parker 82 15.10%
Dale Murphy 75 13.80%
Harold Baines 28 5.20%
Rod Beck 2 0.40%
Travis Fryman 2 0.40%
Robb Nen 2 0.40%
Shawon Dunston 1 0.20%
Chuck Finley 1 0.20%
David Justice 1 0.20%
Chuck Knoblauch 1 0.20%
Todd Stottlemyre 1 0.20%
Jose Rijo 0 0%
Brady Anderson 0 0%
Given their vote totals....
Dunston?
I wonder if that
Some guys
It's like Steve Spurrier voting Duke the #25 team in the nation every year.
You could be right
They get 10 votes
I could have voted for 9 easily
Goose, Blyleven, Dawson, Rice, Raines, McGwire, John, Smith, Morris
If someone worked on me long enough, they might be able to convince me on Concepcion, Murphy, or Trammell for that 10th slot. And if I wasn't convinced, I'd probably find a way to write-in Rose.
Ah, the Rose write-in debate. ; )
Please don't.
2007 and 2008 Votes for Goose, Rice and Dawson
545 ballots, 409 needed for election
Rich "Goose" Gossage 388 71.2%
Jim Rice 346 63.5%
Andre Dawson 309 56.7%
2008:
543 ballots, 408 needed for election
Rich Gossage 466 85.8%
Jim Rice 392 72.2%
Andre Dawson 358 65.9%
Looking at the numbers, the Goose had a huge increase in votes as it looks like the writers wanted to put a least one person in this year. Rice and Dawson both put up respectable 10% gains. Extrapolating this to next years vote, it looks like Rice should get in easily and Dawson will probably be too close to call.
Dawson...
I think Rice and Dawson, along with Henderson, get in next year.
And for Rice...
There's just too many voters who
Then there are complete ass clowns like Ladewski from the Southtown who, just last year - and I still don't know how he has a ballot - sent in a black ballot.
No Gwynn, no Ripken. His reason? He doesn't vote for anyone from the steriod era. ARE YOU KIDDING ME!? If he took enough time to pull his head out of his ass to get some Oxygen he'd find out these guys played most of their careers before the steriod era.
Moral of the story? If by chance I can find one dumb-ass writer by mistake none the less, how many more are out there not casting votes for damn good players.
FWIW, Stark has a good article and I can agree with all of his selections. Only #8 is a sticking point but only the congressional hearing on 03/17/05 is what I hold against that guy.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3171509
Anyhow, congrats to the Goose!
Perspective for Dawson
CF: .353/.395/.395 (17 members)
LF: .355/.391/.384 (18 members)
RF: .360/.385/.382 (23 members)
Andre Dawson: .323.
Now, let's make it clear that OBP is not the only stat (although is a very important one). That out of the way, I think the question to ask is this: was Andre so good in the rest of his game (compared to other HOF outfielders) to make up for him beign the absolute worst (and by a tremendous margin) in the OBP?
To me the answer is a clear NO.
And this coming from a fan.
Luis
The answer, to me....
Name other outfielders in the HoF who were as good defensively and running the bases as Dawson.
A side note
Coming back to Dawson. Perhaps I'm biased because of the Cubs history and OBP... perhaps I have come to overvalue this stat. I don't know. But it's tricky to have defense and speed become the make or break of your HOF candidacy, especially for an OF. Hitting is what separates the men from the boys in this sport. In the case of Dawson it does make his candidacy arguable because even if these things are not as important as hitting they are still important.
One thing though: after looking at Gwynn's numbers I might have to reconsider this. His situation runs a bit parallel to Dawson's: a guy who had a SLG that is the worse by far between the RF hall of famers and who wasn't impressive in the majority of the stats except AVG.
Luis
Wrong
That sounds more like it
Luis
Really? Gwynn not impressive?
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
Slow down...
Luis
Really need to come back...
"But it's tricky to have defense and speed become the make or break of your HOF candidacy, especially for an OF. Hitting is what separates the men from the boys in this sport."
That is precisely wrong - every evaluation of a player needs to take into account the totality of what he brings to a team. A player who is average defensively and +2 wins on offense is exactly the same, value-wise, as a player that is -2 wins on defense and +4 wins on offense. (Ignoring positional scarcity, but that's more a feature of baseball's lack of liquidity in player acquisition than it is an intrinsic value in a player.)
Sometimes I really wonder if the HoF voters realize that there is defense at positions other than shortstop.
To answer Al's question
Willie Mays.
Not comparing the two by any means, but he was as good on the basepaths and probably better in the field. Of course Mays is one of the top three or four best players of all time with a bat far superior to Dawson.
Hopefully the Hawk will be in the Hall next year.
by HectorVillanueva on Jan 8, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions
If the 75% success rate at stealing bases
His work for Tru LInk Fences was first rate however.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 10:10 PM CST up reply actions
MVP voting
It is days like today that remind me why I hate the MVP balloting so much. To the extent that individual awards are used by the voters as a metric, the MVP award is flawed. In this thread, Dawson's MVP award was referred to as "undeserved". That is often stated, because he played for a last place club.
Should the fact that Dawson spent most of his career playing for bad teams impact his candidacy for the HOF? I say it shouldn't.
For better or worse, the number of times that a player ranked in the top 5 for MVP/Cy Young voting is used as a guide for voters is common. This is logical. How many times was player X considered in the top 5 players in his league through his career. That seems like a good way to consider his worth. Unless of course those awards don't actually reflect that.
It infuriates me that many of the same sportswriters who wouldn't vote for player for MVP on a last place team, would later not vote for him in the HOF because he wasn't MVP. Ugh.
Calling Dawson's MVP undeserved is not
And as for those who keep bitching about the writers - again I ask, what alternative do you propose?
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
If I may be so bold.
And for those worried about the takeover of the stats geeks: they have committees devoted to things like oral and pictoral history; just because sabermetrics is named after them doesn't mean that they're all sabermetricians. But they take baseball history absurdly seriously.
I like that idea
A quick plug on SABR, the free publications are worth the cost of membership alone.
Alternatives
Another alternative is for fans and bloggers to more vociferously question the metrics used for voting (I am thinking post season awards here).
I admit that I am somewhat Quixotic (one might say Ahab-esque) in my disdain for the MVP voting, but frankly, I think far too many fans simply accept the silly notion of Value, then pay no attention when that silly notion is recycled in HOF voting.
But anyone can join SABR.
by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions
Have the voting occur at the convention...
In Bill James' book..
That would make sense. Having only SABR convention attendees vote could skew the vote, because there are reasons why SABR members can or can't attend.
If ALL SABR members were eligible to vote, I'd think the votes of the majority of knowledgeable members would cancel out any strange voting patterns by a minority of members.
Dawson's MVP was undeserved
by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions
Baines
He's not a HOF'er but he was one of my favorite non-Cubs of the past 20 years. A very steady quiet player that just did his job year in and year out.
Mark Cuban
That article reads like...
It has little to do with reality.
The only line in the article...
Interesting. But without better sourcing and a better idea of who Cuban's baseball people would be, I don't know if I can say that's a good or bad thing.
Are you calling Chris Ballard...
by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 8, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah
If you wanted concrete news on Mark Cuban buying the Cubs, do not read this. If you want to daydream about what it'd be like if Mark Cuban owned the Cubs, read this.
Gotcha Al
Right. This is just one man's daydream, yes.
So, what do you think about the Roberts rumor heating up around the Cub and Orioles message boards?
Looks like "allegedly" (believe it when I see it) the Cubs and Orioles are very close to making a deal with the Orioles. Seems like the Orioles want the Cubs backup CF Cedeno as apart of any deal.
Actually, what I hear is...
I don't know why they wouldn't...
I can understand if the Cubs don't want to deal with both Gallaher and Marshall, but I find it hard to believe that the Cubs are squashing this deal because of Marshall.
I think a deal of:
Marshall
Cedeno
Murton
Mateo
Would be good enough and fair for:
Roberts
Payton (more of a legitimate choice to Cedeno in CF)
More than fair actually
Cedeno - You know how I feel about him, but he could hold down SS for a year in Baltimore.
Mateo - Another guy who could potentially be decent. I don't think he will be, but it's possible.
Murton - Would start in Baltimore and with Fuku and Soriano in the corners and his inability to play CF, he becomes somewhat expendable.
I think you've hit the nail on the head...
Me, I'd give Marshall and keep Gallagher, but I don't think the deal gets done that way from Baltimore's standpoint.
100% agreed.
Here's a question for you to consider? Would you trading both Marshall and Gallagher in a deal for Burnett of the Blue Jays?
Risky...
There were rumors that the Cubs were after Burnett. According to what I hear, that's all those were -- rumors, no substance to them.
I hate it how it has to be a gradual process
Absolutely!
I also accept that over time some voters genuinely change their mind.
But, you are right, the notion that a switch will on and a player gains 10% between years 7 nd 8 is silly. It seems more like a power trip by the writers than anything else.
Not sure what to say..
Unfortunately, many people did not.
IT was his time in Montreal, NOT in Chicago, that makes Andre Dawson a HOF.
Even with his ABSURDLY low OBP, Dawson combined power, speed, and defense to unleash the most complete baseball player baseball saw from 1975-1985.
Not a single player during those 10 years in the NL blended power, speed, and defensive prowress to the level of Dawson.
I say this purely as a baseball fan. Dawson's time in Montreal needs to be evaluated moreso than his time in Chicago.
The turf in Olympic Stadium is absolute garbage. It's disgusting. I don't know if any of you have been there, but it made the Vet feel like a golfing fairway. Dawson, during this time, would play CENTER FIELD ON CONCRETE. He would then swith to right field later on.
He was the best all-around player in the league, until his knees faded.
Olympic Stadium had extremely high walls, and was a CAVE. It was a TERRIBLE place for a developing power hitter.
I know what I saw with my two eyes.
Dawson was one of the best.
Period.
In my case
In any case, I definitely feel an opinion like yours is more valuable that mine because stats don't tell the whole story.
Luis
After reading all the comments,
Did Dunston get in the HOF?
Please let me know if Dunston got in the HOF, I need a scoop real bad.
C. Muskrat
Someone above...
It's a weird list. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that everyone that voted for Tim Raines also voted for Jack Morris.
Come up with something better!
So have at it. Come up with a better top to bottom system.
DmL
Bill James already did this...
It seemed quite well-thought-out and logical to me, which is why it'll never happen.
(The current process IS a total abomination, incidentally. I can't see how you can argue otherwise.)
I can argue otherwise...
DmL
What other bodies?
The Veterans Committee also does a terrible job, and its "reconfiguration" was, to use a hackneyed old phrase, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
The system needs to be blown up and started fresh.
This is the crap that is killing the process
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/telander/732287,CST-SPT-rick09.article
I'm sorry but if someone as supposedly an accomplished sports writer cannot discern between Gossage/Dawson/Morris/Rice and Bonds/McGwire then you sir/madam SHALL HAVE YOUR VOTING RIGHTS REVOKED.
There are more than 575 voting members
A total of 2,907 individual votes were cast, an average of 5.35 per ballot.
That leaves at least 32 ballots that were NOT received by the December 31 deadline. Include the 3 submitted blank ballots, that's at least 35 "no votes."
Rick Telander has a right not to cast a ballot. His point is that there MAY be players on the ballot that "roided up" or used HGH. He doesn't know, so he didn't vote.
Shame on you, Mr. Telander. Voting is a privilege. You were asked to judge what these players did on the field. You chose not to cast a ballot because you don't know whether or not players like Rice, Dawson, Smith, John, maybe even Bert Blyleven used PEDs?
You said you would "bet [your] life Hawk didn't," but you didn't cast a ballot because "swollen Mark McGwire soils the ballot."
Rice, Dawson, and Blyleven would not have received enough votes even if every one of the 32 non-participating ballots named all three on their ballots. Rice would have fallen 8 votes short (575 ballots requires 432 votes; Rice would have had 424). And this assumes exactly 575 were distributed when it is published that OVER 575 ballots were distributed.
Your vote, and the vote of those that did not send theirs in, could have made a difference under different circumstances.
I don't ground my 17-year-old daughter every weekend because she MAY be going to keg parties or because her under-aged friends drink. I know she's been to parties, but she comes home sober. I trust her to make wise choices.
Let's trust that Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, Smith, John, and many others on the ballot are deserving without the aid of PEDs.

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