Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

A Hall Of A Day

This afternoon, at 1 pm CT, we will find out who (if anyone) will be inducted into the Hall of Fame on July 27.

Disregarding my personal feelings about who should get in for a moment, here's my prediction, based on some articles I've read from writers revealing who they voted for:

Goose Gossage, Andre Dawson and Jim Rice will be elected. Bert Blyleven won't; neither will anyone else.

I'll update this post with the actual electees shortly after 1 pm CT. In the meantime, discuss.

UPDATE [2008-1-8 13:01:32 by Al]: Goose Gossage got in, and that's it. Looks like Keith Law had it scoped out.

Comment 163 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Keith Law has collected approx 20%...
..of the votes from published reports and contacts. Not sure if this is a big enough sample size but based on those tabluations Gossage is the only one getting in this year.

For those of us who are fans of Dawson, lets hope his numbers dont add up!

http://www.meadowparty.com/blog/

Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Jan 8, 2008 6:45 AM CST reply actions  

Interesting post.
That's a fair chunk of the voters, but obviously 80% of them aren't included.

Dawson, based on that, is closer than last year. If that includes the Chicago Tribune writers, then he may not get in, since they all voted for him. If it doesn't, he may have a pretty good shot.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 8:16 AM CST up reply actions  

I believe the Trib writers are included
If I remember correctly, Law was collecting votes from the ballots published by columnists in their respective newspapers as well as other sources.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:22 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm a Hawk fan
and I don't think he deserves to be in the HOF.  Please rephrase to those delusional enough to believe that Dawson's career HR's and undeserved MVP outweigh his inability to get on base at even a mediocre rate.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:24 AM CST up reply actions  

So OBP should be the only criterion?
What about his plus defense, and all the stolen bases? Don't those count?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 8:37 AM CST up reply actions  

His lack of walks was pretty amazing.
I think even in '87 when he hit 49 homers he barely walked 30 times.  That's almost impossible but it is very Cub-like.  Take away ten of his homers and add 80 walks and he'd have been a much more valuable player to that team.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Well of course
Take away 10 HR's from anybody and add 80 walks and they'd be more valuable.  Even Barry Bonds when he was walking 200 times a year would have been more valuable if you'd added 80 times on base at the cost of 10 homers.  That really doesn't say anything about Dawson.  OBP is probably the most important stat for a hitter but it's not the ONLY stat.  It might be when you're looking to give a guy a contract but not when you're putting him in the HOF.  Home runs do count you know, as well as defense, baserunning etc.  
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 8, 2008 8:59 AM CST up reply actions  

I chose those numbers because
it's reasonable to assume that a guy who hits 49 homers (or 39 in my example) on a last place team should have the chance to walk over 100 times in a full season.  Bonds already walks an incredible amount.  But Hawk, in true Cub fashion, was up there hacking at everything.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions  

He made outs
Like you said, OBP is the most important offensive stat.  When you consider any player for HOF, you obviously have to weigh negatives and positives.  Dawson's OBP is so obscenely low, meaning he hurt his team by making a great number of outs, that it does diminish his many positives.  If he even had a slightly below average OBP, that would be enough to get him in the HOF.  If it helps, switch it around and think about a guy like Brett Butler.  Would you be willing to put Brett Butler in the HOF?  I'm willing to bet not.  Why not?  Because he didn't hit for any power.  This limited his overall contribution to his teams and overall career value.  It is the same with Dawson.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Give me a break.
Dawson's career triple slash:
.279/.323/.482

Okay, that's not spectacular for a single-season triple slash, especially from a corner outfielder. But that's also oversimplifying the matter. Dawson was able to keep playing until he was 41, and was still productive in his age 41 season.

When analyzing people for the Hall, I always start off at the Keltner list, Bill James's list of criteria for evaluating entry. #5 is "Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?" Dawson did that, and it is NOT a black mark. But those years have an impact on his triple slash numbers.

If we want to talk rate stats, we can try looking at his best 10-year stretch, which (since to be eligible to the Hall you need to play for 10 seasons) lets us look at players without penalizing some of them for longevity.

Dawson's best 10-year stretch:
.285/.346/.497

Compare to Jim Rice.

Career: .298/.352/.502

Rice certainly looks better, right? Except for the fact that Rice's last year was his age 36 season, where he put up a pathetic 70 OPS+. As best I can tell, Rice was a defensive liability - he split time at DH every single season he played. Dawson was a premium defender for much of his prime. Dawson had a longer career, and a more productive prime.

On-base percentage is a useful metric; it's not a suicide pact. Its high correlation with run scoring makes it valuable, but it's not the only element to run scoring. Without getting too far into the weeds on Runs Created and BaseRuns and all that fun stuff, you need base runners and then you need to advance them. Dawson was a great slugger, a premium defender and played 20 seasons, a vast majority of them good to great. He beats Rice hands-down; if there's room for Rice in the Hall there needs to be room for Dawson.

I don't think Rice belongs, and I'm on the fence about Dawson - to be quite frank I'm a lot more worried about the amazing slighting of Tim Raines by HoF voters to put too much thought into the question. But to waive around a single number like it's a religious symbol isn't baseball analysis, it's alchemy or astrology.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

the stolen bases do count
but if the voters did a good job at their job (which they decidedly don't) they would notice that he stole bases at barely less than a 75% clip which means that for all the bases he stole, he actually hurt his team, though he almost hit the break even point.
MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Give me a break.
OK, so his career OBP is low.  I defy you to point out one other category in any phase of the game that should keep the Hawk out.  His 2,700 hits, (1,000 extra base hits...the only eligible player to achieve that who is not in the HOF), 300+ steals, shows that over the course of his career he had no problem getting on base, and at least early in his career, could cause some havoc on the basepaths once he got there.  He was an MVP, a Rookie of the Year, 8-time All-Star, 8-time Gold Glove winner.  He did it all, and he is a Hall of Famer.    

His low number of career walks is surprising, especially for a hitter as feared as he was.  The lack of a World Series appearance hurts him too, even though all writers say that doesn't sway them.  It does.  Eventually he'll get there, even if it's not this year.    

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

And.....
don't forget the 2,000-400-300 club.  Mays, Bonds, .....Dawson.  All-around offensive excellence over a long period of time, and all three were also great defensive outfielders with great arms and multiple Gold Gloves.

Speaking of corner outfielders...compare Dawson and Billy Williams (a HOF no-brainer, by the way) in career stats, and then tell me Dawson does not belong.  Both were corner outfielders.  Very similar in career offensive numbers, but then throw in the stolen bases, and defensive prowess.  Easy.  Very easy.    

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 11:49 AM CST up reply actions  

You're rigth
Dawson probably will get into the HOF at some point.  The problem is, his low, low, low OBP is enough on its own to justify keeping him out.  I don't need to waste time finding another stat to keep him out.  He hurt his team by producing outs at an all too frequent rate.  All around offensive excellence includes ability to get on base.  Dawson lacked that in spades.  

Do the research, getting on base is a skill.  Walks don't just happen to "feared" players.  Go to baseball-reference.com and look up guys like Max Bishop, Eddie Stanky, Brett Butler, Eddie Joost.  These guys all drew walks despite being very weak hitters.  In the case of Bishop, he hit in front of 3 HOFers and still drew 100 walks a year.

Hawk was a very good player.  He should not be a HOFer.  

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 1:18 PM CST up reply actions  

I guess my point was
that walks (.obp) weren't the only thing that go into making a HOF'er, no more so than winning games makes a HOF pitcher, otherwise we might as well argue that Jack Morris is a HOF'er and I don't think anyone reasonable is arguing that.  Morris wasn't good enough in other areas to make him a HOF'er and you have to look at everything, not just one stat.  Correct?  Otherwise they'd just make the cutoff for hitters a career .370 .obp and everyone else wouldn't get in.  No voting required.  See what I mean?  Dawson has other, important areas that he was good at, very good at.  If you look at one stat and disregard everything else Mark McGwire would have been elected last year.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 8, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions  

The point is did the player make HOF contributions
Dawson did not.  It's not a matter of overlooking all of his other contributions.  If you take into consideration all those contributions and his low OBP, he does not warrant induction.  Honestly, I have no problem with setting a high bar.  No, that bar shouldn't be for one stat.  We are, though, talking about a .323 OBP.  That's terrible.  He made an out 67.7% of the time he came to plate.  Those are a lot of outs to overcome.  You mention a career OBP level of .370.  Dawson's career high was .365.  Your comparisons to Morris and McGwire are invalid.  We're talking about an overwhelming weakness of a player keeping him out, not a single stat overcoming everything to get him inducted.  BTW, McGwire was more than a one trick pony.  He hit home runs and got on base at an incredible rate of .394 with a career high of .470.  His career OPS+ is 12 all time.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 2:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I know I'm wasting my time.....
trying to change your mind about Dawson, but please allow me one more comparison.  Take Andre's good friend Tony Perez.  Different position, I know, but similar to Dawson and Rice in that he prompted a lot of debate and discussion before he was elected.  Very similar career offensive stats.  But once again, add in defense (no Gold Gloves, a lot of errors at 1B, of all places!!) and stolen bases, and a career OBP of only .341.  Higher than Dawson, but hardly super-human.  

Yes, getting on base is a skill, as you correctly pointed out.  Therefore, I get what you're saying about Dawson's OBP.  I just think it's obvious when you look through the HOF roster that most players elected had weaknesses in their game.  Very few did everything well.  It's not your job to defend HOF inductees that someone else elected, I know, but I just think the OBP argument is nitpicking one facet of Dawson's game when he was great in all other areas despite being on bad knees his whole career.  Anyway, we'll agree to disagree, and I'm glad we at least agree that Dawson will get in eventually.      

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 2:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I can agree to disagree
To help you out in the future, though, leave out the Tony Perez comparisons.  Perez is one of the worst players in the HOF.  Perez, btw, at least had a career OBP of .341 compared to Dawson's .323.  Also, that Dawson had bad knees is irrelevant.  There have been several players who had primes or runs of seasons far greater than Dawson ever had who saw their careers diminished or ended by injuries.  

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree on Perez
he shouldn't be in, and is another one of those players that got in because he played on World Series teams.

Regarding Dawson; I look at the total package, and he was a very good player.  He could beat you with his legs, play in the field and his bat.  Rice was a better hitter, but if I had to choose either one in their prime, I take Dawson.  His OBP is low for a HOF player, but I think he makes up for it in other areas.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 8, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions  

Low for a HOF player?
Dawson's career OBP (.323) is 19 points lower than the currently lowest ranked HOF OF, Robin Yount (.342).  Forget that Yount gets bonus points for playing SS and CF through his career.  That is an enormous gap.  Next up from Yount is another undeserving HOF who happened to play for the Cubs, Lou Brock at .343.  They are the only 2 HOF OF's who are below .352.  Those are raw numbers.  That is even more amazing taking into consideration players who spent careers during the Dead Ball Era, Spit Ball Era, and 60's.  I don't think people are realizing how bad Dawson's OBP was.  If it was as bad as Brock's or Yount's, he might have a case.  .323 is ridiculous.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions  

The Hall of Fame voting inbitters me
The gage reflex I have around this time of year regarding the HOF vote is intolerable. Each Year I can't help but to remember Ron Santo getting a phone call that breaks his heart. The process makes me ill.

Somewhere Joe Morgan is laughing hie pompous smug laugh!  

The Cubs will be great in 2008!

by Scott G F on Jan 8, 2008 6:53 AM CST reply actions  

HOF in five plus years
With the Mitchell report out it will be interesting to see if Clemens and Bonds ever get in.

Go Hawk!!!  Hopefully this will be the year.

by AlabamaCubFan on Jan 8, 2008 6:59 AM CST reply actions  

HOF
Is it only sportswriters that vote?  Do former players, managers, coaches, execs, etc, vote?  If it's only sportswriters that vote, then a change is needed.  How accurately can someone judge a player when they have no clue first hand how to play the game?  It seems a lot of Dawson's peers say he deserves it.
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 8:14 AM CST reply actions  

On this ballot...
... it's only writers.

The HoF balloting system is seriously flawed. Years ago, the balloting was given to the BBWAA because it was assumed that they were the only people who would have seen everyone play enough times to know how good they were. This, of course, was in the pre-television era.

There has to be a way to make this better. Unfortunately, the HoF board of directors is filled with dinosaurs who don't want to cede power to anyone else.

They could fix this, or MLB could (even though the Hall is an independent organization, MLB could wield power if they wanted to), but no one seems interested, despite widespread disgust with the way the voting is handled.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 8:19 AM CST up reply actions  

Not to mention the opposite that
can happen with players involved in the voting.  When Frankie Frisch sat on the veterans committee he pushed through former teammates and friends that had no business being enshrined in the HOF.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Only Goose
I couldn't agree more that the Hall of Fame voting is as screwed up as Florida after the 2000 election.

As long as it's only baseball writers who do have a "dinosaur" mentality when it comes to voting, a lot of players who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame are going to be left out.  Jim Rice is a prime example.  The main reason Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame now is because a lot of baseball writers just didn't like Jim Rice.

I posed a question in a post above about the Hall of Fame five years from now.  Assuming Bonds and Clemens retired now, there will be baseball writers who will never vote either one of them into the Hall of Fame.  When it's clear that baseball had a problem for 20 years with performance-enhancing drugs and steroids.

I'm not saying give the vote to the fans, but they have to have a new way.  Every era has its own problems.  

by AlabamaCubFan on Jan 8, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions  

There are a lot of ex-players on the veterans
committee.  Ask Ron Santo how that's working out for him.  

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 8:23 AM CST up reply actions  

Veterans Committee is living HOFers
and some others.  Santo is just in front of the Veterans Committee at the wrong time.  In years past, the committee has been a much smaller group with very low standards, if any standards at all, for election.  They could be easily swayed by campaigning for certain candidates.  That's how Phil Rizzuto got in.  Unfortunately for Santo, it's much more difficult for that campaigning to work now with the much larger group.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:27 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually
His % went up when they switched to the larger group, and that's the reason they made the change, thinking that a larger group would be able to make better decisions and not be swayed as much by one or two guys campaigning for their buds.  Santo did better iirc but still wasn't close enough.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 8, 2008 9:04 AM CST up reply actions  

well...
... based on this idea, none of us have any of us have the right to comment on baseball in this blog or anywhere else. Most of us "have no clue first hand how to play the game" either.

I personally think the baseball writers do a pretty damn good job. I believe the "first ballot" concept is pretty stupid but I do understand that over a 15-year period, in the mind or voters, someone can go from being a non-HoF player to a HoF player when looking at it from a historical viewpoint.

Yes, there are a handful of players who are debatable that are both in and not in the hall. But the thing is that they are debatable. It is debatable that Ron Santo, Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven and Goose Gossage are Hall of Famers. All of these guys are borderline, certainly tremendous ballplayers, but their HoF status is debatable. I, for one, would much rather have a few players not make than have a Hall of Fame that is watered down. It should be exceedingly difficult to get into the Hall.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 8, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Really?
Well, we aren't the deciding factors on whether or not these guys make the HOF either.  What we do is for fun.  We don't determine how history is going to judge these players.
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 10:11 AM CST up reply actions  

Blyleven...
... should have been in long ago. Fifth on the all-time K list, and 60 career shutouts? Case closed.

He's not in because he's not likeable, and rubbed a lot of the writers the wrong way. Yet another reason the BBWAA should be removed from this.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree
I think spite is reason why a lot of players don't get in and definitely will be the reason why all the steriod users won't.  People can say all they want about the cheating, fact is there are already cheaters in the HOF, but you can't take away what they still accomplished.  A lot of players were using and only a few players rewrote the record books.
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

same holds true for our beloved...
Ron Santo. Not the stats part but the intangible.
Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 8, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

The judges...
... IMO, have done a pretty good job. Every fan base can pinpoint their own Ron Santo, whom they believe is a glaring omission from the Hall. Each of these players, again, is debatably a Hall of Famer. I'd much rather have that than every few years being frustrated that some Yankee or Red Sox player got in undeservingly. It is not easy to get into the Hall nor should it be.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 8, 2008 10:40 AM CST up reply actions  

Agreed
I don't think it should be easy either.  But when you look back on the careers of some of these players, it's hard to understand how some of them aren't in the HOF.  Dawson, Blylevyn, Gossage, these are all names of players that were among the elite during their playing years.  You have to compare them to players from their era, not to stats that we hold today.
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions  

The baseball writers pretty much suck at this.
The easiest way to make it into the Hall of Fame seems to be to play first base, or to play for the Yankees. Maybe play first base FOR the Yankees. Apparently playing third base pretty much disqualifies you from the Hall.

You seriously mean to tell me Scooter Rizzuto belongs in the Hall, but Tim Raines doesn't? Really?

Seriously - Keith Law and Rob Neyer can't make it in to the BBWAA because they don't go to enough games, and yet Woody Paige is a member. Because he USED to be a beat writer, and so he's friendly with his regional chapter director. Absurdist. The baseball writers seem so firmly committed to their own irrelevance it's shocking. No matter who gets in today, it's a sad day for baseball, because we continue to let the Good Old Boys network of regional BBWAA directors dictate who is worthy and who is not to be in the Hall of Fame.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Loud, sustained applause.
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 10:45 AM CST up reply actions  

The evil, nasty, east coast media
would love nothing more than to make the Cubs the third team in the over-exposed Red Sox-Yankee cabal.  Only problem is, the Cubs stink four out of every five years.  The national media love teams from Chicago (Bears, Bulls and Cubs) to be good.  They just don't keep up their end of the bargain enough.  

The East coast thing is so old.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 11:05 AM CST up reply actions  

Who brought up that?
We're just looking at the fact that, rationally, the BBWAA has done a mediocre job at best of selecting the Hall of Fame.

To be quite frank - the BBWAA is more devoted to the cause of protecting newspaper beat writers than it is of preserving the history of baseball. Which isn't a sin, per se - that's the organization's reason for existing, after all.

But that doesn't mean that we should continue letting them be the arbiters of baseball's historical record.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 11:11 AM CST up reply actions  

You brought that up
in your post about Yankees getting in.  As has been pointed out here, the writers did not vote Rizzuto in.  As I asked before, if not the writers, then who should be doing this?  

Ex-players?  They've voted in Rizzuto and kept out Santo.  Fans?  Maybe.  If you want to go to Cooperstown and see the Jody Davis and Keith Moreland plaques.  It ain't perfect but some of the hyperbole about how downright rotten it is is over the top.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Again...
... there are a handful of players who deserve to be in that aren't. There are a handful of players who are in that don't deserve to be. But as a whole I'm pretty happy with the way things are.

And again, those who want the coaches, veterans, managers, players, etc vote, I'll remind you two things. First is that it has been eminently harder to get in via the Veterans Committee, which is composed to former players. Secondly, in 1999, the managers voted Rafael Palmiero the gold glove award winner at first base in the AL... after only playing 28 games at first base, the rest at DH. There is no perfect voting body. I do believe that the BBWAA has, on the balance, done a good job. Thats not to say that it doesn't need tweaking in who is allowed to vote (i.e. should Dan McGrath, who hasn't been on a baseball beat in God knows how long get a ballot?).

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 8, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

"Tweaking"?
The system needs to be scrapped and re-done.

That has about as much chance of happening as me being named Cubs closer in 2008.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

The baseball HoF...
...by position.

1B - 21
3B - 13
C - 16
2B - 18
SS - 23
LF - 19
RF - 21
CF - 25

This isn't just about Santo; the Hall of Fame is simply not friendly to third basemen. It's weird and it's inexplicable and it's infuriating. Someone needs to put out the memo that third base is more difficult defensively than 1B, LF and RF.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 11:01 AM CST up reply actions  

To be fair...
To be fair, Rizzuto wasn't elected by the writers.  The veterans elected him in '94. (source: http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers/detail.jsp?playerId=121257)

Not that the writers have been all that good, but almost without fail the worst Hall selections have come from the veteran's committee. (which I guess makes sense to some degree, since the writers get the "easier" selections by virtue of going first)

by MarchHare on Jan 8, 2008 10:55 AM CST up reply actions  

I agree
The veterans committee is a lot worse than the writers.  No way does Rizzuto deserve it.  That was New York and Yankee bias.  What Frankie Frisch did lowered the standards more than anything the writers ever did.  

I'm with DmL, I'm ok with the writers but maybe something needs to be done again with the veterans committee.  Seems like they'll never add anyone.  

by rlpete on Jan 8, 2008 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

And who would you replace the writers with?
Bloggers?  You let Cub fans loose on the Hall and every Cub better than Mick Kelleher and Dave Rosello had better make their reservations for Cooperstown.

There is no perfect group of people to do this.  You can argue that Blyleven isn't in because he wasn't nice to the press while someone might argue that Gary Carter IS in because he was such a non-stop ass kisser of the press.

Players have their own prejudices too.  I think Santo's heel-clicking act rubbed a lot of his contemporaries the wrong way.  At a time when players would exchange a palm slap after a home run, Santo's clowning after wins went beyond bush league to outright buffoonery.  But should it keep him out of the Hall?  No.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

Neyer disagrees
I wish I had a link to a specific instance of this, but Neyer has written several times that the BBWAA has done a serviceable job.  Remember, the BBWAA is mostly guilty of leaving deserving players out.  Last year (Bruce Sutter) and this year are looking to be exceptions.  It's the Veteran's Committee that has performed the worst atrocities of including clearly undeserving players.  As much as I think Gossage, Raines, and Blylevyn deserve to be in, the worst thing that could happen today will be the inclusion of Rice and Dawson.  It's better to let 10 guilty men go free than to imprison 1 innocent man.  

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Bulls---t
Ron Santo is not a borderline Baseball Hall of Fame candidate if you are using the membership of the existing baseball Hall of Fame as the criteria.  At the time that he retired, he was the second or third best player to have ever played at his position.  He is still in the top seven, and arguably is in the top three or four.  That the baseball writers are too stupid to understand that counting stats in the 1960s were "repressed" by the low offensive era (and thus too many pitchers from that period are considered to be "superstars" and too many offensive players are underrated) does not change the fact that Santo was head and shoulders above his peers at the position.  He was an offensive force and a superb fielder.  He was consistently the best hitter at his position and was the second best fielder after the player generally regarded as the best fielder to have ever played the position.  

Don't give the writers a pass by arguing that Santo's "borderline".  Unless you have a Hall of Fame with a membership of less than 3 position players per position, he's a Hall of Famer (and even at that number, he probably would be in the Hall of Fame as he was in the top three for a long long time).  The Internet Virtual Hall of Fame elected him on the first ballot.

by frustratedfan on Jan 8, 2008 10:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Dawson's Hat
Let's say Dawson does make it in to the hall. What hat does he wear? Sure he won an MVP award as a Cub, but he spent an awful lot of time north of the border. That being said, I can't imagine that MLB would be thrilled about a guy going in for a team that no longer exists.
AC 00 00 00 - BELIEVE

by mike @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 8:37 AM CST reply actions  

I should probably...
read the comments before posting.

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 9:04 AM CST up reply actions  

re: the hawk
If elected to the hall, would he wear a nationals jersey (as the continuation of the expos franchise), an Expos Jersey (reflecting his longest tenure), or a Cubs jersey?

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 9:01 AM CST reply actions  

I assume...
it's almost definitely one of the latter two. I don't know why I even bothered to include the nats.

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 9:03 AM CST up reply actions  

Good question.
He had his best years in Montreal, but got his greatest fame as a Cub.

It's up to the Hall -- they took this choice away from the player after a few celebrated incidents in the 90's (Gary Carter insisting he go in as a Met, the prime example; the Hall did the right thing and put him in as an Expo).

Incidentally, it's the cap rather than the jersey -- that's how they are depicted on their HoF plaques.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 9:09 AM CST up reply actions  

right
I figured that out after posting. As you can tell, I've never visited cooperstown.

I have seen the negro league museum in KC, however. It was outstanding.

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 9:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I've heard that...
... said by many people about the Negro League museum in KC. I'd like to see that someday.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 9:26 AM CST up reply actions  

My guess
is that they make him go in as an Expo.  Figures, Maddux will go in as a Brave and Dawson as an Expo.  Surprised they didn't make Sanderg go in as a Phillie.
I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Jan 8, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Re: Cubs vs. Expos
Helping his case as a Cub inductee is the fact that baseball might want to pander to Cubs fans since there are more of us, and the team actually still exists. I'm sure there are still some people living in Montreal who won't be thrilled about being snubbed, but honestly, how many can there actually be?

I was in a bar in Canada once, during the baseball playoffs (this was in Toronto too, so we're talking about a city that actually has a baseball team), and they had a Hockey pre-season game on rather than the baseball playoffs. Hockey is like ice pornography to the average canadian, and baseball is the thing they watch after they've finished their business, while they're waiting to have another go, as it were.

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 12:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Phenomenal line
"Hockey is like ice pornography to the average canadian".  Hilarious.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Jan 8, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions  

i am going to remember that one
"ice pornography"

all jokes aside the toronto sports fan is not indicative of the average canadian sports fan. and the city of montreal is not definitely like the rest of canada especially rural canada. most of the guys i know and grew up with are hardcore sports fans in general and knowledgeable on all sports not just hockey. that being said i am going to watch montreal and chicago on tsn tonight. go habs.

*diehard cubs fan from northern manitoba, canada

by hoppy91 on Jan 8, 2008 5:53 PM CST up reply actions  

oh, I know
One of the first people I met my freshman year of college is a canadian (and he is a huge baseball fan), and I've had a lot of fun visiting up there. I also took a few trips to toronto and later Montreal with my family back when I was in short pants. Good times. I'm still trying to wrap my head around your nighttime road construction, and suspicious lack of violent crime, but I like what I've seen.

I need to be nice to you canadians. As a 22 year old, I'm one small military draft away from becoming the newest resident north of the border.

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions  

To be fair
I've been in plenty of bars where a big August baseball game (with the local team, even) wasn't on TV so they could show a pre-season NFL game.

There is nothing more dreadful in sports than the NFL exhibition season--yet people watch it in droves.

Stay tuned for complete coverage of BABYWATCH 2008!

by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Great Point
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I think Goose gets in...
...but that's it.  I hope I'm wrong though.  

I just have this feeling that too many people have Dawson and Rice joined at the hip - that seems to be a very popular argument.  Sometimes the group thing can be a good dynamic, but I think this time it's going to hurt both Dawson and Rice.  Voters are going to want one or the other, but feel like if they vote for one, they'll have to vote for the other, then they'll overthink the situation, and vote for neither.

On the plus side, maybe all this steroid talk will convince some of these dinosaur writers that here are a couple of bona fide sluggers who did it the old-fashioned way (interpret that however you want - my guess is yeah, maybe greenies played a part, but it wasn't as out of control as today's environment seems to be.  Maybe that's just wishful thinking).  Anyway, a little steroid perspective might have these self-absorbed writers thinking here's a chance to make a statement to today's juicers.

Pretty asinine thinking if you ask me, but hey, if it gets Hawk (and Rice) in, I'm all for it.

Unfortunately, I think Blyleven ends up a distant fourth.  Which is a shame, as he should be in there.

An interesting sub-plot will be McGwire's percentage - is it lower than last year because of the expanding steroid scandal or is it higher because some voters felt he was a HoFer all along but wanted to punish him last year for his role in all this.  I think it will be higher, but not by much.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 8, 2008 10:05 AM CST reply actions  

Dawson....
has Rice beaten in almost every category offensively, and defensively there is no comparison.  Rice was good, but over the course of their careers, if you crunch the numbers and combine all-around talent, Dawson was better.  
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 10:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Slight quibble...
Dawson beats Rice in TOTAL stats, but in averages and accounting for longevity, Rice wins as a pure hitter, even if you take their best stretches of 10-12 years.

Now, I agree that, all-in-all, Dawson was better (considering longevity, defense, and speed).  And who knows how much difference playing in Boston aided Rice.

by SouthernCub on Jan 8, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Amphetamines were probably more prevalent
Clubhouses used to have coffee pots marked leaded and unleaded!

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 1:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Regarding the HOF and the steroid era
Was listening to sports radio yesterday and a caller had an interesting thought.

Guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were certainly on pace for the HOF prior to the start of their "alleged" use of performance enhancing drugs late in their careers. Had they simply retired prior to that point in time, they would likely be first ballot HOFers.

The list of these players may continue to grow, as we find out more about this era, however their achievements in the game cannot simply be erased.

Should the HOF create a new section in the building devoted to the career worthy steroid era players, highlighting their achievements and explaining their controversy, without actually giving them the honored bronze bust?

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 8, 2008 10:26 AM CST reply actions  

OFF TOPIC: Don't hate on me
But I couldnt find the sate that the cubs tickets go on sale. Can someone help me out. What is the Date and Time?

by Kchance on Jan 8, 2008 10:51 AM CST reply actions  

They're on sale now!!
Go to cubs.com and order them.
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

This is for Spring Training games BTW
Regular season hasn't been annouced yet.
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions  

ok.
I OBVIOUSLY meant regular season games. But thanx does anyone know when they Usually announce the sale date?

by Kchance on Jan 8, 2008 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

They usually announce it...
around convention time, so expect an announcement in the next week or 2.

Kasey

See the Cubs 2008 schedule at http://ignarski.tripod.com/sched2008.html

by kaseyi on Jan 8, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions  

The system sucks
Example:

People are voting for Jack Morris and not Bert Blyelevan.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Jan 8, 2008 10:54 AM CST reply actions  

That's the classic debate...
with regard to the Hall of Fame.  Blyleven was the far better pitcher over their careers.  But Jack Morris had a couple of big games in the postseason, which makes him more famous.

So, is Jack Morris more deserving of the Hall of Fame than Blyleven because he's by far the more famous pitcher of his era?  Or is Blyleven more deserving because he was the better pitcher?

It's actually a pretty interesting question if you ask me.

by SouthernCub on Jan 8, 2008 12:19 PM CST up reply actions  

This is the problem
It isn't the hall of fame taking the term literally.  The Hall of Fame is for the best baseball players... period.  It isn't based on how famous you were or what...

From the hall of fame website:
Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

I don't think that leaves much room for a slightly better than average pitcher (Career ERA+ of 105) who is coming in on the strength of the fame garnered through one exceptional start in the playoffs.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Jan 8, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions  

How...
...Rice could get in and not Bert is beyond me. I noticed that no one on the ESPN page voted for Dawson and not Rice. I have really had it with the Boston suckups. I am tired of hearing about Red Sox nation. Anyone who doesn't vote for Bert should have to explain why. My ballot would have Bert, Goose and Andre.
"You know what? You want a job? Go out and earn one." Sweet Lou

by Kyle Turney on Jan 8, 2008 11:02 AM CST reply actions  

Blyleven
I will admit, I do not know that much about Blyleven because most of his career was before my time, and even after I started watching baseball, he was in the AL before everyone had ESPN.  If I ever saw him pitch at all, it would have been in the '87 World Series.  So, disclaimers aside, here is my two cents worth.

When you look at 287 wins, 3,700 strikeouts, the career ERA of 3.31, and the huge number of complete games and shutouts, he looks like a no-brainer.  But when you look at the year-by-year numbers, he really only had 2 dominant win-loss seasons (one 19-7, one 17-5).  His only 20 win season he had 17 losses, and there just seem to be too many seasons in there where he lost more than he won.  Now I realize that wins and losses for pitchers can be deceiving, and given his career ERA, I'm sure he lost a lot of 1-0, 2-1 games.  He seems to be the kind of pitcher who was consistently reliable over a period of many years, very tough and durable, racked up a lot of innings, but over the course of his career was rarely, if ever, dominating, and never really won any major awards.  Again, I am no Blyleven expert, so I'm going strictly by numbers here.  At the end of the day, though, 287 victories would have to, I believe, win out over all else and merit induction.  

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 11:40 AM CST reply actions  

You've done a good job of research...
Blyleven looks very good in his peripherals, but was definitely hurt by pitching for some bad teams throughout his career.  Because of that, his W/L record doesn't show how good he was, and it also hurts his fame by preventing the opportunity for big-game success.

For example, had he pitched for the Dodgers, Reds, or A's, or Yankees, he'd have had a lot more national exposure during his prime years.

But he had 10 seasons with an ERA+ of 125 or better, and 5 seasons with an ERA+ of 140 or better.  That's pretty darn fantastic.  He just happened to play for teams that didn't score runs, and thus his record didn't stand up.

The sad thing for him is that, had he managed just 13 more wins, he'd be a sure-fire HOF.  And he had plenty of seasons where he pitched well enough to get those 13 wins but was let down by his team.

by SouthernCub on Jan 8, 2008 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

True
And if you look at the teams he played for over 20-plus years, I'm sure there were a lot more than 13 low-scoring games he could have won with just a clutch two-out base hit.  The ironic thing is that he also played for two world championship teams (1979, 1987) but all those years in Minnesota, Texas, and Cleveland hurt him more than those two specific years helped him.  I would vote for him if I could.  
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions  

wins...meh
Blyleven is a stud who played for a bad offense.  Wins are somewhat meaningless.  Accumulating 287 wins is an achievement for sure but basing a decision on the number of 20 win years is missing the big picture.

Example:

Pitcher A won 14
Pitcher B won 13

Pitcher A is Jason Marquis on the 2006 Cardinals with a 6.02(!) ERA!

Pitcher B is Roger Clemens on the 2005 Astros in one of the best pitching performances in the history of baseball. ERA+ was 226!!!

Blyleven was a stud:  Breaking down years by ERA+, here are his total years above...

150 - 2
140 - 5
130 - 6
120 - 11

I might as well just give credit where it is due.  Look here:

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/01/its-almost-over.html

That article breaks down why Blyleven should be in even though he probably won't and why Jack Morris probably will even though he is doing it on the strength of one no-hitter and that game 7 against the braves.

Oh and also... someone is voting for Morris because he started 14 Opening day games.  Wow...just, wow.  That is the worst argument of all time for anything ever.

Basically, either Blyleven needs to be in with the current standards, or the standards need to become stricter and then he should be left out.

I read an interesting article a while back about the HOF and how it would mean something if they restricted it to 50 or 100 players and then every time someone came up for a vote, they would have to take someone out of the HOF to get in.  It would be interesting to see but it would help ensure that only the best players would actually be in.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Jan 8, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions  

here's how I rationalize it:
Bert Blyleven has excellent career stats overall (I consider wins after numerous other stats), but he was never really dominant, relatively speaking. Other HOF (or HOF bound) pitchers are/will be admitted under the exact opposite criteria: dominant peak career, but relatively underwhelming counting statistics (still good, but relative to other HOF pitchers). Pedro Martinez and Sandy Koufax immediately come to mind when I consider those qualifications, but I think Curt Schilling is probably a better counterpart comparison for Blyleven, as Pedro was probably the most dominant pitcher of all time during his peak, and Koufax is in the top 5.

Since we rightly admit these dominant pitchers who suffered from relatively short careers, I think it's only fair that we include their counterparts. Blyleven's lack of relative dominance should be more than made up for by his ERA throughout such a prolific career, his number of CG shutouts, his lofty rank on the career strikeout list, his IP, and finally his high career win total.

I think it speaks to our love of round numbers that Blyleven has been thus far ignored by HOF voters by ending his career 13 games shy of 300 wins. He was basically one more decent season away from accumulating the necessary win total to virtually assure his inclusion in the club. Personally, i consider the wins too much either way. If anything. 287 wins should help his case, not hurt it.

Now that I've gone to the trouble to make Blyleven's case, allow me to bash the HOF: It's a sham organization anyway. It's just as inconsistent as anything else. There are plenty of relatively weak hitting infielders on the plaques in that museum. Honestly, I don't care how good Luis Aparicio's glove was: his offensive stats suck (even for his pitching dominated era). His career OPS+ is 82!

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 12:32 PM CST up reply actions  

correction:
Personally, i consider the wins too much either way.

should be:

Personally, i don't consider the wins too much either way.

Also, looking at Blyleven's stats, he really was pretty dominant, so I feel like I kinda wasted my time with my argument above. Forget the wins, as the poster above pointed out, Blyleven pitched several seasons with a very impressive ERA+ (and he threw a ton of innings to boot).

by Thelonious on Jan 8, 2008 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Man, I love it
when someone convinces themselves of the facts of the matter.  :-)
Stay tuned for complete coverage of BABYWATCH 2008!

by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Let me give you a number
Sixty.  That's how many career shutouts Bert Blyleven had.  That's ninth on the all-time list, just one below Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan.  That's more shutouts than Jim Palmer, Bob Gibson and Steve Carlton.

How in the world can he have 60 shutouts and not be dominating?  

The Cy Young award argument, which you don't make but others do, is absolute bullcrap.  In 1984 Blyleven won 19 games for a wretched 75 win Indians team.  If he'd have won one more game, they would have given him the Cy Young.  But the unwritten rule back then was that starting pitchers had to win 20 to get the Cy Young and people were fascinated with closers.  He finished third behind Willie Hernandez and Dan Quisenberry, the closers for the two division winning teams.  So now we should punish Blyleven again because the sportswriters of the eighties were morons?  (Heck, it's the same guys voting today for the hall.)

Blyleven pitched for two World Champions (Pirates '79, Twins '87) but neither one was a dominating team.  Most of the rest of his career was played for the crummy Twins teams of the seventies and the absolutely dreadful Indians teams of the early eighties.

If he'd have pitched for Detroit like Jack Morris did, he'd have gotten 320 wins and we wouldn't be having this conversation.

People keep going back to the wins and losses thing.  I don't know how many times we have to beat it into people's heads that those are team stats.

Stay tuned for complete coverage of BABYWATCH 2008!

by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions  

Thats the number that swayed me
He started 685 games and had 60 complete games shutouts.

Thats a shutout every 11.5 games.  Pretty impressive

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Jan 8, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Look Carefully at the Numbers.
Blyleven had seasons with more complete games than wins.  That should tell you something.  A while back I posted an analysis which took one of his seasons which showed a 1-0 loss in 10 innings (he pitched all 10 innings) a couple of other 1-0 losses, a loss where he gave up no earned runs and a number of additional 2-1 and 3-2 loses.   That one season alone a "reasonable" offense would have given him 3-5 more wins.   The ONLY reason he's not in the HOF is the wins.  More proof (along with Santo) that the Writers should lose their vote.

by frustratedfan on Jan 8, 2008 10:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Dawson should have made it to!!
Damn writers.
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 1:03 PM CST reply actions  

I hate being right...
n/t
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 8, 2008 1:03 PM CST reply actions  

Dawson...
... got a pretty good bump up to 65.9%. Maybe he gets in next year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 1:08 PM CST reply actions  

Next year's class
Who's up for next year?
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions  

You mean for the first time?
As best as I can figure, these should be the first-timers on the 2009 ballot:

Steve Avery, Jay Bell, Jason Bere, Mike Bordick, John Burkett, David Cone, Omar Daal, Ron Gant, Joe Girardi, Mark Grace, Mark Guthrie, Bill Haselman, Rickey Henderson, Trenidad Hubbard (yes! he played 10 seasons), Todd Hundley, Brian L. Hunter, Felix Jose, Chad Kreuter, Keith Lockhart, Pat Mahomes, Al Martin, Orlando Merced, Troy O'Leary, Jesse Orosco, Lance Painter, Dean Palmer, Craig Paquette, Dan Plesac, Tom Prince, Jeff Reboulet, Rick Reed, Rich Rodriguez, Terry Shumpert, Luis Sojo, Greg Vaughn, Mo Vaughn, Matt Walbeck, Matt Williams, Kevin Young

Those are all the players who meet the qualifications: play 10 seasons, be retired five years (retired at the end of the 2003 season).

Other than Rickey Henderson, there's not a single player on that list who rates induction.

The following players from this year's ballot got less than 5% of the vote and will be dropped from future ballots: Rod Beck, Travis Fryman, Robb Nen, Shawon Dunston, Chuck Finley, David Justice, Chuck Knoblauch, Todd Stottlemyre, Jose Rijo, Brady Anderson. Harold Baines got 5.2% and stays on the ballot; Mark McGwire got 23.6%, about the same as last year.

Complete 2008 voting is here.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Thanks Al
Looks like Rickey and Jim Rice next year.  Possibly the Hawk as well.
Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

You mean, you wouldn't vote for Felix Jose!
Outrageous.

He's in, just to see the jheri curl's in bronze!

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Jan 8, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

How many votes...
... will Todd Hundley get?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

One less than Shawon...
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 8, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions  

You sure Ricky is "retired"?
Or is he waiting for the right opportunity to come back around.
"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Jan 8, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions  

here is a list for the future
http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers/

just glancing at those lists

  1. agree on Ricky... I'd expect 1st ballot; nobody else to speak of
  2. Barry Larkin will be interesting... he had some dominating years for a SS.  Between his age 25 year and age 34 year his OPS+ was over 130 7 times and had years of 154 and 143.  Also, as much as I dislike the award because of how it is handled, he did win 3 gold gloves.
Also maybe Fred McGriff gets in.  I don't know really.  He was pretty damn good at the beginning of his career but... I think falling just short of 500 will hurt him as falling short of 300 wins has seemed to hurt Blyleven, deserved or not.

Roberto Alomar might as well but who knows.

2011: Jeff Bagwell - The only question for me is how many years it takes.  He was probably better than you realize.  It surprised me.  Between 1991 and 2002, inclusive, his OPS+ was NEVER below 130.  In those 12 seasons, it was above 150 half the time.   His career high was 213.  He was a monster. Better than I realized.  Wow.

Juan Gonzalez will be an interesting case going forward.  He was a beast for 11 seasons with 2 good seasons mixed in during the first 13 years of his career.  Obviously injuries slowed him down.  How much does that hurt him?  Take a look at his stats here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gonzaju03.shtml

Tino Martinez?  I'd say no.

Rafael Palmeiro... Need I say more.  He's in on the first ballot based on stats alone.  How much does the steroids issue hurt him?

Larry Walker...  Had many many incredible seasons.  Interestingly, in 1997, his best year, his stats were actually better away from Coors.  However, for the most part the splits were somewhat wide.  It's very similar to Jim Rice (how many voters do you think know that? His career splits are .320/.374/.546 home vs. .277/.330/.459 away).  I guess voters will have to decide how much the stadium affected his stats.
At the same time, I suppose OPS+ accounts for stadium factors and his OPS+ numbers are pretty exceptional.

2011 is a pretty good first time HOF voting class.

2012: nobody from the list the hall provides.

MURTON!!!

by tal1286 on Jan 8, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think Alomar will have any problems
getting into the Hall of Fame.  He's first-ballot worthy in my book, but even if the dinosaur writers don't agree, I'm confident he'd get in the following year.  

I for one, will look forward to that day, because Joe Morgan will then be the THIRD best modern-day second baseman in the Hall of Fame.   heh heh heh heh....

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 8, 2008 5:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Alomar is a lock for the HOF...
Most consider him one of the best 2nd baseman of all time....
Let me get back to you, will ya, Charlie? I got a guy on the other line asking about some white walls.

by JB 23 on Jan 8, 2008 7:06 PM CST up reply actions  

If Ryno got in...
then Robbie gets in. The numbers are comparable and though Alomar played a few years longer than he should've, he was an amazing ballplayer. Truly hallworthy.
"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 8, 2008 10:49 PM CST up reply actions  

Wasn't the Hawk
near the 2/3rd's mark in '06? So he's back to where he was 2 years ago...
Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 8, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Goose in, Rice, Dawson, Blyleven closer
Player    Total Votes    Percentage
Rich Gossage    466    85.80%
Jim Rice    392    72.20%
Andre Dawson    358    65.90%
Bert Blyleven    336    61.90%
Lee Smith    235    43.30%
Jack Morris    233    42.90%
Tommy John    158    29.10%
Tim Raines    132    24.30%
Mark McGwire    128    23.60%
Alan Trammell    99    18.20%
Dave Concepcion    88    16.20%
Don Mattingly    86    15.80%
Dave Parker    82    15.10%
Dale Murphy    75    13.80%
Harold Baines    28    5.20%
Rod Beck    2    0.40%
Travis Fryman    2    0.40%
Robb Nen    2    0.40%
Shawon Dunston    1    0.20%
Chuck Finley    1    0.20%
David Justice    1    0.20%
Chuck Knoblauch    1    0.20%
Todd Stottlemyre    1    0.20%
Jose Rijo    0    0%
Brady Anderson    0    0%

by flachimesa on Jan 8, 2008 1:16 PM CST reply actions  

Given their vote totals....
Rice is a shoo-in next year, and Dawson will make it eventually, but this is so damn frustrating.  Kudos to Gossage, who deserved it (despite 1988...I puke when I think of him in a Cubs uniform) and should have been in years ago. The Hawk will get there, but I can't believe these baseball writers.  Unbelievable.  
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Dunston?
Dunston got 1 vote?  That should tell you the credibility of some of these voters right there.  Last year, voters said that they purposely didn't vote for Ripken and Gwynn because they felt like they didn't deserve to get 100% of the votes.  Just goes to show you the bias and the flaws in the system if you ask me.
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions  

I wonder if that
was Phil Rogers?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 8, 2008 2:09 PM CST up reply actions  

Some guys
give a HOF vote knowing they won't get in just as a thank you to a certain player.  I doubt whomever voted for Shawon really thought he was a Hall of Famer.

It's like Steve Spurrier voting Duke the #25 team in the nation every year.

Stay tuned for complete coverage of BABYWATCH 2008!

by Josh Timmers on Jan 8, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions  

You could be right
but that's BS to deprive a player who deserves your vote, to give it to someone who doesn't deserve it.  Don't you think?
"You rub snot on the ball?" Ricky Vaughn

by McRipper on Jan 8, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions  

They get 10 votes
I highly doubt anyone uses all 10.  The writers who gave a token vote probably didn't leave Dawson off the ballot to give the token vote.  

by rlpete on Jan 8, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I could have voted for 9 easily
Even though I think only four should have made it (Goose, Blyleven, Hawk, Rice), I could have easily voted for nine and not lost any sleep over it:

Goose, Blyleven, Dawson, Rice, Raines, McGwire, John, Smith, Morris

If someone worked on me long enough, they might be able to convince me on Concepcion, Murphy, or Trammell for that 10th slot.  And if I wasn't convinced, I'd probably find a way to write-in Rose.  

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 8, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Ah, the Rose write-in debate. ; )
Ballhawk, you've at least cracked open a can of worms, and I'm tempted to open it up all the way.  Really, really tempted.  But I won't, because I'm leaving the house soon to go see a movie.  I think I have started the Rose argument the last two years on BCB, so if anyone cares, go back through the archives.  I don't have the time or the willpower to go through this today.  
"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Jan 8, 2008 3:42 PM CST up reply actions  

Please don't.
This door should be closed forever.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

2007 and 2008 Votes for Goose, Rice and Dawson
2007:
545 ballots, 409 needed for election
Rich "Goose" Gossage 388 71.2%
Jim Rice 346 63.5%
Andre Dawson 309 56.7%

2008:
543 ballots, 408 needed for election
Rich Gossage 466 85.8%
Jim Rice 392 72.2%
Andre Dawson 358 65.9%

Looking at the numbers, the Goose had a huge increase in votes as it looks like the writers wanted to put a least one person in this year.  Rice and Dawson both put up respectable 10% gains.  Extrapolating this to next years vote, it looks like Rice should get in easily and Dawson will probably be too close to call.

Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Jan 8, 2008 1:51 PM CST reply actions  

Dawson...
... had a 10% gain in percentage... but also was named on 49 more ballots, which is a 16% increase in the number of ballots cast for him.

I think Rice and Dawson, along with Henderson, get in next year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions  

And for Rice...
... next year is it, his last year on the regular ballot. That alone probably puts him in. The ESPN discussion now pointed out that no one has gotten that close (72.2%) without getting in, who didn't eventually get in.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions  

There's just too many voters who
don't know enough about some guys and I bet the Hawk falls into that category.

Then there are complete ass clowns like Ladewski from the Southtown who, just last year - and I still don't know how he has a ballot - sent in a black ballot.

No Gwynn, no Ripken. His reason? He doesn't vote for anyone from the steriod era. ARE YOU KIDDING ME!? If he took enough time to pull his head out of his ass to get some Oxygen he'd find out these guys played most of their careers before the steriod era.

Moral of the story? If by chance I can find one dumb-ass writer by mistake none the less, how many more are out there not casting votes for damn good players.

FWIW, Stark has a good article and I can agree with all of his selections. Only #8 is a sticking point but only the congressional hearing on 03/17/05 is what I hold against that guy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3171509

Anyhow, congrats to the Goose!

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 8, 2008 2:00 PM CST reply actions  

Perspective for Dawson
Concerning OBP, here are the lowest, average and median values for outfielders in the HOF (source for data www.baseball-almanac.com):

CF: .353/.395/.395 (17 members)
LF: .355/.391/.384 (18 members)
RF: .360/.385/.382 (23 members)

Andre Dawson: .323.

Now, let's make it clear that OBP is not the only stat (although is a very important one). That out of the way, I think the question to ask is this: was Andre so good in the rest of his game (compared to other HOF outfielders) to make up for him beign the absolute worst (and by a tremendous margin) in the OBP?

To me the answer is a clear NO.

And this coming from a fan.

Luis

by Luis on Jan 8, 2008 2:36 PM CST reply actions  

The answer, to me....
... is clearly yes.

Name other outfielders in the HoF who were as good defensively and running the bases as Dawson.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 2:47 PM CST up reply actions  

A side note
Btw, I just noticed that Gwynn had a career .359 SLG!! Yikes.

Coming back to Dawson. Perhaps I'm biased because of the Cubs history and OBP... perhaps I have come to overvalue this stat. I don't know. But it's tricky to have defense and speed become the make or break of your HOF candidacy, especially for an OF. Hitting is what separates the men from the boys in this sport. In the case of Dawson it does make his candidacy arguable because even if these things are not as important as hitting they are still important.

One thing though: after looking at Gwynn's numbers I might have to reconsider this. His situation runs a bit parallel to Dawson's: a guy who had a SLG that is the worse by far between the RF hall of famers and who wasn't impressive in the majority of the stats except AVG.

Luis

by Luis on Jan 8, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Wrong
Gwynn's lifetime line is .338/.388/.459.  With his lifetime average, it would be pretty tough to have a .359 slugging.  

by rlpete on Jan 8, 2008 3:12 PM CST up reply actions  

That sounds more like it
They have it wrong on the almanc page (http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofstri.shtml)... makes me wonder what else they have wrong on that page.

Luis

by Luis on Jan 8, 2008 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Really? Gwynn not impressive?
Hard to not be impressed by a guy with eight batting titles, a lifetime OBP of nearly .400, 3100 career hits, multiple gold gloves, over 300 stolen bases etc. - seems pretty good to me.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Slow down...
Believe me, if he had had a .359 SLG his numbers would like way different. Obviously he did not, and my comments earlier were based on that number. In any case, Gwynn's calling card is obviously his AVG. You can't count 8 batting titles as a separate achievement because that is based on AVG. His OBP is right about the average for RF in the hall, and slightly less than average in terms of all outfielders. He did have all those hits, but again, that is a stat derivate of avg. and longevity. His 1,100 or so RBI are nothing to write home about... they are the bottom part in terms of outfielders in the hall. His nearly 1,400 runs scored seem about average looking at the numbers quick. And yes, those stats are influenced by the team but also by the fact that he had little HR power 135HR. His stolen bases and gold gloves are definitely a plus. I'm not saying he doesn't belong in the HOF. But if he had a career .359 SLG the argument would be different. Shame on me for not looking in other places to corroborate the stat or for having the common sense to realize that a guy with a .338 avg would be hard pressed to have only a .359 SLG.

Luis

by Luis on Jan 8, 2008 4:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Really need to come back...
...and address this point:

"But it's tricky to have defense and speed become the make or break of your HOF candidacy, especially for an OF. Hitting is what separates the men from the boys in this sport."

That is precisely wrong - every evaluation of a player needs to take into account the totality of what he brings to a team. A player who is average defensively and +2 wins on offense is exactly the same, value-wise, as a player that is -2 wins on defense and +4 wins on offense. (Ignoring positional scarcity, but that's more a feature of baseball's lack of liquidity in player acquisition than it is an intrinsic value in a player.)

Sometimes I really wonder if the HoF voters realize that there is defense at positions other than shortstop.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 11:32 PM CST up reply actions  

To answer Al's question
Name other outfielders in the HoF who were as good defensively and running the bases as Dawson. here

Willie Mays.

Not comparing the two by any means, but he was as good on the basepaths and probably better in the field.  Of course Mays is one of the top three or four best players of all time with a bat far superior to Dawson.

Hopefully the Hawk will be in the Hall next year.

This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds of us of all that once was good and it could be again.

by HectorVillanueva on Jan 8, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions  

If the 75% success rate at stealing bases
as the cutoff between helping and hurting the team is to be believed, then Dawson wasn't a great base stealer.  Bring up all the "I saw him go from first to third once against Pittsburgh" stories you want, by the only way we can truly measure it, he has a nice career stolen base total but his success rate is not that of a first class base runner.

His work for Tru LInk Fences was first rate however.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 10:10 PM CST up reply actions  

MVP voting
I have stated before my disdain for the way that MVP voting is conducted (the notion of valuable is way to vague if it is not simply agreed that it means best).

It is days like today that remind me why I hate the MVP balloting so much.  To the extent that individual awards are used by the voters as a metric, the MVP award is flawed.  In this thread, Dawson's MVP award was referred to as "undeserved".  That is often stated, because he played for a last place club.  

Should the fact that Dawson spent most of his career playing for bad teams impact his candidacy for the HOF? I say it shouldn't.

For better or worse, the number of times that a player ranked in the top 5 for MVP/Cy Young voting is used as a guide for voters is common.  This is logical.  How many times was player X considered in the top 5 players in his league through his career.  That seems like a good way to consider his worth.  Unless of course those awards don't actually reflect that.  

It infuriates me that many of the same sportswriters who wouldn't vote for  player for MVP on a last place team, would later not vote for him in the HOF because he wasn't MVP. Ugh.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 8, 2008 2:50 PM CST reply actions  

Calling Dawson's MVP undeserved is not
solely based on the '87 Cubs being a last place team.  I remember Bill James writing a piece before the '88 season making an argument that a fairly long list of players were more valuable to their teams offensively than Dawson - and yes, a lot of his argument was based on Dawson's woeful OBP.

And as for those who keep bitching about the writers - again I ask, what alternative do you propose?

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:10 PM CST up reply actions  

If I may be so bold.
The Society for American Baseball Research, maybe? Just a thought?

And for those worried about the takeover of the stats geeks: they have committees devoted to things like oral and pictoral history; just because sabermetrics is named after them doesn't mean that they're all sabermetricians. But they take baseball history absurdly seriously.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions  

I like that idea
I belong to SABR.  I'd like to vote.  I bet it would help SABR membership too.

A quick plug on SABR, the free publications are worth the cost of membership alone.  

by rlpete on Jan 8, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Alternatives
The SABR seems like a possible alternative.

Another alternative is for fans and bloggers to more vociferously question the metrics used for voting (I am thinking post season awards here).  

I admit that I am somewhat Quixotic (one might say Ahab-esque) in my disdain for the MVP voting, but frankly, I think far too many fans simply accept the silly notion of Value, then pay no attention when that silly notion is recycled in HOF voting.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 8, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions  

But anyone can join SABR.
And yes, I guarantee it would increase membership.  Because the first year SABR had the vote, fans from every team with a borderline HOFer would join SABR and push them over the top.  In fact, I would have everyone I know join and vote for Shawon Dunston just to show what an awful idea that would be.

by TR on Jan 8, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions  

Have the voting occur at the convention...
...in person.
I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions  

In Bill James' book..
... "The Politics of Glory", in a later edition retitled "Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame", ISTR he suggested a three-tiered vote, giving one part to sportswriters, another to Hall members, and a third to fans which would have somehow been coordinated by SABR.

That would make sense. Having only SABR convention attendees vote could skew the vote, because there are reasons why SABR members can or can't attend.

If ALL SABR members were eligible to vote, I'd think the votes of the majority of knowledgeable members would cancel out any strange voting patterns by a minority of members.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions  

Dawson's MVP was undeserved
I believe MVP should be for the best player in the league.  Dawson did not rate in even the top 10 in the NL for OPS+ in 1987.  He was not even close to being the best player in the league.  If anything, he won for putting up big HR and RBI numbers on a bad team.

by snley @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Jan 8, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Baines
Taking a step back from all the Dawson ire (to me he's borderline so I'm not upset), I'm glad to see Baines at least get on the ballot one more time.

He's not a HOF'er but he was one of my favorite non-Cubs of the past 20 years.  A very steady quiet player that just did his job year in and year out.    

by rlpete on Jan 8, 2008 2:54 PM CST reply actions  

Mark Cuban
 Here's another hypothetical if Mark Cuban owned the Cubs article
I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 3:02 PM CST reply actions  

That article reads like...
... "here's some fun stuff I'd like to write about Cuban doing".

It has little to do with reality.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions  

The only line in the article...
...that isn't pure fluff is: "Those who know Cuban say he'll only bite -- the asking price is about $1 billion -- if he thinks he can come close to breaking even while competing million-for-million with Boston."

Interesting. But without better sourcing and a better idea of who Cuban's baseball people would be, I don't know if I can say that's a good or bad thing.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 8, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions  

Are you calling Chris Ballard...
a fluffer?
As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Jan 8, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah
 I thought I made that clear with the "hypothetical" part.

 If you wanted concrete news on Mark Cuban buying the Cubs, do not read this. If you want to daydream about what it'd be like if Mark Cuban owned the Cubs, read this.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 3:27 PM CST up reply actions  

Gotcha Al
 My adhd didn't allow me to understand what you meant until the second time I read it.

Right. This is just one man's daydream, yes.

 So, what do you think about the Roberts rumor heating up around the Cub and Orioles message boards?

 Looks like "allegedly" (believe it when I see it) the Cubs and Orioles are very close to making a deal with the Orioles. Seems like the Orioles want the Cubs backup CF Cedeno as apart of any deal.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 3:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Actually, what I hear is...
... the Orioles are really after Sean Marshall, and the Cubs don't want to deal him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 4:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't know why they wouldn't...
...be willing to trade him. How many soft tossing lefties do the Cubs need in their rotation?

 I can understand if the Cubs don't want to deal with both Gallaher and Marshall, but I find it hard to believe that the Cubs are squashing this deal because of Marshall.

 I think a deal of:

Marshall
Cedeno
Murton
Mateo

Would be good enough and fair for:

Roberts
Payton (more of a legitimate choice to Cedeno in CF)

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 4:16 PM CST up reply actions  

More than fair actually
Marshall - could be a very good pitcher. Still young and could be a solid #3 in a couple years.

Cedeno - You know how I feel about him, but he could hold down SS for a year in Baltimore.

Mateo - Another guy who could potentially be decent. I don't think he will be, but it's possible.

Murton - Would start in Baltimore and with Fuku and Soriano in the corners and his inability to play CF, he becomes somewhat expendable.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 4:20 PM CST up reply actions  

I think you've hit the nail on the head...
... by saying the Orioles want BOTH Gallagher & Marshall and the Cubs don't want to give up both.

Me, I'd give Marshall and keep Gallagher, but I don't think the deal gets done that way from Baltimore's standpoint.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

100% agreed.
 If I'm Jim Hendry, I don't give up both of them for Roberts either. I'd say thanks but no thanks, let Derosa man down 2nd and look for a SS with Gallgher or Marshall.

 Here's a question for you to consider? Would you trading both Marshall and Gallagher in a deal for Burnett of the Blue Jays?

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 8, 2008 4:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Risky...
... because of Burnett's injury history.

There were rumors that the Cubs were after Burnett. According to what I hear, that's all those were -- rumors, no substance to them.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 8, 2008 6:06 PM CST up reply actions  

I hate it how it has to be a gradual process
Players slowely make their way up. If they deserve it, just vote them in the first time, don't wait like 10 years to do it..
Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Jan 8, 2008 3:17 PM CST reply actions  

Absolutely!
I can, begrudgingly, accept the first ballot HOFer argument.

I also accept that over time some voters genuinely change their mind.

But, you are right, the notion that a switch will on and a player gains 10% between years 7 nd 8 is silly.  It seems more like a power trip by the writers than anything else.

Eamus Ursuli!

by WGNstatic on Jan 8, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Not sure what to say..
I'm not sure if any of the dissenters watched Dawson play in Montreal during the late 70's and early 80's.

Unfortunately, many people did not.

IT was his time in Montreal, NOT in Chicago, that makes Andre Dawson a HOF.

Even with his ABSURDLY low OBP, Dawson combined power, speed, and defense to unleash the most complete baseball player baseball saw from 1975-1985.
Not a single player during those 10 years in the NL blended power, speed, and defensive prowress to the level of Dawson.

I say this purely as a baseball fan.  Dawson's time in Montreal needs to be evaluated moreso than his time in Chicago.

The turf in Olympic Stadium is absolute garbage.  It's disgusting.  I don't know if any of you have been there, but it made the Vet feel like a golfing fairway.  Dawson, during this time, would play CENTER FIELD ON CONCRETE.  He would then swith to right field later on.

He was the best all-around player in the league, until his knees faded.

Olympic Stadium had extremely high walls, and was a CAVE.  It was a TERRIBLE place for a developing power hitter.

I know what I saw with my two eyes.

Dawson was one of the best.

Period.

"You're fired." - Dallas Green to Billy Connors while Billy was staying in the hospital.

by jdoolsiu on Jan 8, 2008 4:54 PM CST reply actions  

In my case
I only saw Dawson play from 1989 on, so I missed most (and the best) part of his career. My analysis is obviously stat driven. The only thing I can add is that when I did see him when the game was on the line he was the not the guy I wanted at the plate. Did you get a different feeling when you watched him in Montreal?

In any case, I definitely feel an opinion like yours is more valuable that mine because stats don't tell the whole story.

Luis

by Luis on Jan 8, 2008 5:09 PM CST up reply actions  

After reading all the comments,
I believe that Hawk and Blyleven deserve to be in, and are getting screwed. I wonder if Mitchell would be willing to investigate, and figure out what the hell is going on here?
Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Jan 8, 2008 5:11 PM CST reply actions  

Did Dunston get in the HOF?
I was hoping to be the first to post on this blog about how incredibly amazing it is that he receive this award for his outstanding shortstop achievements and baseball throws.

Please let me know if Dunston got in the HOF, I need a scoop real bad.

C. Muskrat

by DudeVf11 on Jan 9, 2008 12:20 AM CST reply actions  

Someone above...
...posted a link to the voting of the MLB.com writers; Muskat didn't vote for Dunston (or at least didn't admit to it).

It's a weird list. I'm still trying to wrap my head around the fact that everyone that voted for Tim Raines also voted for Jack Morris.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 9, 2008 12:38 AM CST up reply actions  

Come up with something better!
For all of you bitching and moaning about how truly horrid the BBWAA is at this, propose something better, please. I mean people are making it seem like this process is a total abomination, so come up with a better process. Don't just say "let Bill James and Vin Scully vote" because thats not an overhaul of the system, which apparently is needed if one listens to the outcry.

So have at it. Come up with a better top to bottom system.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 9, 2008 1:06 AM CST reply actions  

Bill James already did this...
... in his book about the Hall -- I don't have it handy, maybe someone else does -- in which he proposed a three-tiered system which would have had writers, a panel of players/execs/managers similar to the Vets Committee, AND a panel of fans that could have been connected somehow to SABR all vote.

It seemed quite well-thought-out and logical to me, which is why it'll never happen.

(The current process IS a total abomination, incidentally. I can't see how you can argue otherwise.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 9, 2008 4:20 AM CST up reply actions  

I can argue otherwise...
... because every process involves individuals voting and when individuals vote, whether they're baseball writers, managers, former players or folks from statistical backgrounds, they're going to act in individualistic manners. The evidence that has been used against the BBWAA has simply been random examples and there is NO reason to believe that wouldn't continue if the body voting changed. Prime example is the Veterans Committee, which has been reconfigured at least once and there has been little difference. Again, there are debatable individuals, Santo, Blyleven, Rice and others who are not in the Hall. But ultimately the BBWAA do a better job that many of the other voting bodies we've seen hand out baseball awards.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 9, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions  

What other bodies?
All the postseason awards are also voted on by the BBWAA.

The Veterans Committee also does a terrible job, and its "reconfiguration" was, to use a hackneyed old phrase, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

The system needs to be blown up and started fresh.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Jan 9, 2008 1:45 PM CST up reply actions  

This is the crap that is killing the process
Telander is as big of an ass clown as his pseudo-counterpart at the Southtown.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/telander/732287,CST-SPT-rick09.article

I'm sorry but if someone as supposedly an accomplished sports writer cannot discern between Gossage/Dawson/Morris/Rice and Bonds/McGwire then you sir/madam SHALL HAVE YOUR VOTING RIGHTS REVOKED.

Our grandparents used to say, "I hope the Cubs win the Series before I die". Now the teenagers are saying it.

by blackhawk24 on Jan 9, 2008 6:06 AM CST reply actions  

There are more than 575 voting members
of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. 543 ballots were cast including 3 ballots which supported no candidates.

A total of 2,907 individual votes were cast, an average of 5.35 per ballot.

That leaves at least 32 ballots that were NOT received by the December 31 deadline. Include the 3 submitted blank ballots, that's at least 35 "no votes."

Rick Telander has a right not to cast a ballot. His point is that there MAY be players on the ballot that "roided up" or used HGH. He doesn't know, so he didn't vote.

Shame on you, Mr. Telander. Voting is a privilege. You were asked to judge what these players did on the field. You chose not to cast a ballot because you don't know whether or not players like Rice, Dawson, Smith, John, maybe even Bert Blyleven used PEDs?

You said you would "bet [your] life Hawk didn't," but you didn't cast a ballot because "swollen Mark McGwire soils the ballot."

Rice, Dawson, and Blyleven would not have received enough votes even if every one of the 32 non-participating ballots named all three on their ballots. Rice would have fallen 8 votes short (575 ballots requires 432 votes; Rice would have had 424). And this assumes exactly 575 were distributed when it is published that OVER 575 ballots were distributed.

Your vote, and the vote of those that did not send theirs in, could have made a difference under different circumstances.

I don't ground my 17-year-old daughter every weekend because she MAY be going to keg parties or because her under-aged friends drink. I know she's been to parties, but she comes home sober. I trust her to make wise choices.

Let's trust that Rice, Dawson, Blyleven, Smith, John, and many others on the ballot are deserving without the aid of PEDs.

by flachimesa on Jan 9, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Bleed Cubbie Blue, the Chicago Cubs blog for the SB Nation, created on February 9, 2005 by Al Yellon

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Maybe it's time to take a deep breath

Recent FanPosts

Zambrano_background_2_small
What is the most likely move in June regarding current players?
Small
Draft Prep: Pierce Johnson
Small
Trying to be positive (need some help)
Small
Soriano back to Second?
Small
Javier Baez Peoria Bound?
Small
Draft Prep: Conference Tournament Version
Despite-an-inflated-babip-lahair-is-no-one-month-wonder
Suddenly, I feel your pain
Small
Start of the LaHair Regression?
Dsc06783_small
Rookie Season Ticket Open House

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Doug Glanville On His Teammate, Kerry Wood
Thanks.
Samardzija takes a dig at Hawk Harrelson
Chicago vs. Chicago, Round 2.
Wrigley Field Photo Gallery

Recent FanShots

Wrigley Field Supporters Propose Tearing Down Rest Of Chicago
2012 Stars and Stripes Hat
Sveum moves Castro back to #2 spot
OT: Tyler Colvin bats 2nd
The Pittsburgh Pirates Offensive Catastrophe
Roy Halladay Bobblehead Fail
Full sized image
All The Topps Baseball Card Cubs, 1951 - 2012
Rob Neyer answers the question: When should the Cubs call up Anthony Rizzo?
Don't Have MLB Network? You Might Get Shut Out Of A Playoff Telecast

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

Featured Poll

Poll
Should the National League adopt the designated hitter rule?

  964 votes | Results

Cubs By The Numbers

Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.

Click here to order your copy, available now!

Recent Stories in Chicago Cubs Game Threads

Yahoo_full_count

Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges


Managing Editor

Alyellontoppscard_small Al Yellon

Front Page Contributors

Profile_small Josh Timmers

B_w_avatar_small Brett Taylor

Marvin_the_martian_small Shawn Domagal-Goldman

Other Contributors

Toonmike_small Mike Bojanowski

Dsc_0139_small David Sameshima