Rate the trade value of current Cubs

by cubzfan on Oct 10, 2008 10:48 AM CDT

While I am as guilty as others about occasionally posting wild trade ideas, I thought this alternate format might be a helpful way to discuss our ideas for next year. My claim is that the Cubs will probably deal one of their 10 most valuable trade candidates this Winter.

The basic idea is to rank the trade value of the current players under Cubs control. An EXACT ranking is probably futile, so I'll start with a four-tier division. I'm leaving off any minor leaguers who haven't appeared in Chicago yet. You can discuss them, too, if you like.

This isn't who you WANT to trade, or who you THINK will be traded, just an estimate of which players would bring the most in return. Talent, health, cost, years under control would all matter. Please critique and offer your own rankings.

1. Most Valuable

Marmol, Soto, Lilly, Harden, Marshall

2. Somewhat Valuable

Zambrano, DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot, Pie, Gaudin

3. Least Valuable

Fukudome, Cedeno, Cotts, Marquis, Blanco, Johnson, Wells, Hill

4. Minor Prospects

Hoffpauir, Wuertz, Ascanio, Hart, Guzman

No trade clause: Lee, Soriano, Ramirez, Samardzija

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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I'd go

Most Valuable:

Geovany Soto
Carlos Marmol
Josh Vitters
Rich Harden
Mark DeRosa
Aramis Ramirez

Somewhat Valuable:

Ted Lilly (AL Clubs won’t value him as much)
Mike Fontenot
Ryan Theriot
Derrek Lee
Carlos Zambrano
Sean Marshall
Felix Pie (i say somewhat because we’ve internally destroyed his value, i bet other teams would value him significantly but offer less because they know we don’t value him)
Chad Gaudin
Ronnie Cedeno
Angel Guzman
Jeff Samardzija

Least Valuable:

Jason Marquis
Neal Cotts
Rich Hill (value destroyed though i bet there’d be interest)
Kosuke Fukudome
Alfonso Soriano (no one wants that contract)

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 10, 2008 11:16 AM CDT reply actions

Marquis

This is going to sound odd, but I’d wager he’s decently valuable on the trade market as a league average pitcher signed for 7 million next season. He’s not going to get you an elite prospect from anyone sane, but might be worth a decent middle reliever to a team needing to fill a rotation.

by GSG on Oct 10, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions

he's signed for 10

not 7…. big difference

and he’s only league average in the NL

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 10, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Marquis

His 2009 salary is a result of the massive back loading that Jim Hendry seems to enjoy. He makes a touch under $10M. I could see a team interested in him and the Cubs getting something decent in return, however the Cubs would have to eat a big chunk of that contract.

by dmlichte on Oct 10, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Trading Marquis

Either it’s a straight salary dump or we keep him. I don’t see much middle ground. He’s been pretty good in the 5th spot and now that he’s signed you can’t complain about how much he’s making as it’s a sunk cost at this point.

Now if Jim wants to dump his salary, pick up a lefty for the pen, and move Marshall to the rotation, and use Marquis’ salary for a big bat, fine.

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 10, 2008 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Good job...

…the only thing I would disagree on is I would move Harden to the somewhat valuable level along with Vitters.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 10, 2008 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Harden Above the rest ?????

I don’t understand how you can say a Five inning pitcher is more valuble than Zambrano, Lilly or Marshall. And as far as Lilly Who would not want a Proven # 1or # 2 Starter?. I f Rich hill can ever get his Mediocre fastball over the plate with some kind of consistency he than becomes an outstanding major league pitcher( I think the cubs should stick with him another year.

by NYCUB FAN on Oct 10, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions

my reasoning takes into account contracts

Harden’s 1 yr 7 million dollar deal is a gamble most would take on him. Plus you know at the end of the year he’s likely to be a Type A FA, meaning he comes with the added benefit of likely getting 2 picks.

While I’d bet on Zambrano or Lilly to have better years next year than Harden and be more valuable it doesn’t mean they’re a more valuable chip.

When you talk about baseball management, you’re talking about evaluating players in relation to their contracts.

Albert Pujols might be the best player in the game, but if he makes say $40 million a year or something absurd like that, he’s not as valuable to an organization with a budget as someone producing 80% of his production making $3 Million (as an extreme example)

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 10, 2008 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions

as another example

DeRosa isn’t a better player than Soriano or Zambrano, but his above average production at a low price and his contract only being 1 more year makes him an incredibly valuable chip. He’s another guy who is likely to be a Type A at the end of next year (based on this season’s career year) and would garner 2 draft picks.

A team that’s trading for him at the very least has to be able to beat the value of those 2 picks, thus his value as a trade chip is higher than some others who may be better players but have far worse contracts

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 10, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I like this idea in general

but the problem is that so many factors play in here in terms of supply and demand.

Say, for example, that Teixeira signs with Baltimore and the Angels don’t believe in Kendry Morales. That means you’ll have the Angels, Yankees, and possibly Giants all wanting a top 1B. On the other hand, Teix could be a Yankee, the Giants could go with Sandoval at 1B and the Angels with Morales. Then there’s no 1B market.

Similarly, Felix Pie’s trade value is a lot higher for a team not ready to compete with lower payroll – San Diego – than it is for a team competing now and with higher payroll – Yankees.

Again, some statistically minded teams wouldn’t give a pair of mismatched socks for Theriot, but teams that may be in the market for scrapitude or gumption could be willing to overpay for him (remember Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik?).

That said, I’m confident that Soto is our single most valuable trade chip. Rich Hill is our least valuable name player, because teams will expect we may just cut him loose.

I think Ronny Cedeno’s trade value is higher than many expect because of the SS shortage.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 10, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions

Excellent insight!

Yes, the market sets the value. Good point about potential shortages at 1B and SS this year. Also, LH power is generally in short supply.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Oct 10, 2008 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

I hate these games...

however, I’d have to say:

Zambrano
Soto
Marmol

by Damen Jackson on Oct 10, 2008 11:29 AM CDT reply actions

You left Derrek Lee off your list.

He may not have the most value, but he’s probably the most LOGICAL starting player to be offered in trade. If the Cubs could get the Angels to take his contract, DO IT and then use the savings (plus a little extra) to sign Teixeira.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 10, 2008 12:20 PM CDT reply actions

Don't you think the NYY...

..will make him an offer he can’t refuse? I think Giambi has played his last game in pinstripes.

"I never drink water because of the disgusting things fish do in it" -W.C. Fields

by calicubfan on Oct 10, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions

He's listed with the other "no trade clause" guys

Doesn’t mean anyone couldn’t speculate about his value if they like. It’s a free fanpost!

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Oct 10, 2008 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Right, I missed that at the bottom of the list.

I suspect D-Lee would waive the no-trade if he got in the right situation. The Angels might be a good fit for him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 11, 2008 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Other current Cubs who have no trade protection in their contracts:

Carlos Zambrano – full no-trade clause
Ted Lilly – no-trade protection
Kosuke Fukudome – no-trade protection

You did mention the following:

Alfonso Soriano – full no-trade clause
Aramis Ramirez – full no-trade clause until 2010
Derrek Lee – no-trade clause
Jeff Samardzija – no-trade clause

"Every team will win 60 games, every team will lose 60 games, it's what the team does in the other 42 games that decides the season."

by flachimesa on Oct 12, 2008 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions

But it would be a dumping move

Any expectation of quality in return would be unrealistic. Same with Soriano – they’re priced at or above market value. Teams don’t give up cash and talent to get get players – it’s one or the other.

by Wreckard on Oct 11, 2008 8:30 PM CDT up reply actions

On the other hand

Good ol’ Phil Rogers disagrees:

San Francisco, desperate for a proven bat, is expected to pursue one-dimensional second baseman Dan Uggla. The Giants also may kick the tires on first baseman Paul Konerko of the White Sox and Derrek Lee of the Cubs, both of whom have full no-trade clauses. They probably would have to deal a young pitcher—Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain. They’re considered expendable because lefty Madison Bumgarner is climbing fast. …

Cain or Sanchez – I’d call that quality. If the Giants would give us Cain for Lee – I’d make that trade every day of the week and twice on Sundays.

There are two reasons, Lee’s contract is not “at market value.” 1) There aren’t any 1B on the free agent market of his caliber (because Teix isn’t on the market for SF). 2) If there was, you couldn’t sign one for just two years. Lee’s two years are more important to some teams than the price for those years.

by DGU on Oct 11, 2008 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Lee to the Giants.

Intriguing. D-Lee grew up in Northern California (Sacramento). Might work out well for both him and the Giants. I’ll bet SF would make that deal, too, as they have a pretty good pitching staff even without Cain.

Derrek Lee is a class act and I’ve enjoyed watching him play for the Cubs the last five years. But maybe it’s time for him to move on.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 12, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree about Lee being a class act and fun to watch.

Lee’s been one of my favorite Cubs the past few years.

The problem (or at least the perceived problem) is too many RH bats for the middle of the order. This problem is part of the reason you can’t move Soriano down in the order. Aramis and Geo are the best one and shouldn’t be traded. Soriano probably isn’t tradeable. That leaves Lee.

I wonder if SF would have to give Lee 2 more years to get him to waive the NT clause.

by DGU on Oct 12, 2008 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Lilly is more valuable than Harden

He is HEALTY and locked up for TWO more years at a reasonable price Vs the constantly injured guy with one year
of control/

Also Johnson has ZERO value because he is not signed and Henry would not and should not pull a sign and trade on him.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 10, 2008 1:50 PM CDT reply actions

I could be wrong

but I don’t think Reed is free agent eligible.

I think Harden is more valuable to some teams and Lilly to others. Harden should be more valuable to the Cubs. We need as many potential Aces on roster for the post-season.

by DGU on Oct 10, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Johnson is a free agent.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 10, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions

really??

thought he was only arb egible.

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 10, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

After Toronto released him , he became a free agent

and the Cubs signed him for one year. Even without the requisite number of years of MLB service he can’t be forced
to being under a club’s control after he becomes a free agent.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 10, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions

This list is a little silly

Look, it’s pretty easy to understand who is marketable and holds most trade value. But what does that information do for us. Not a whole lot. Soriano, Ramirez, Soto, Marmol, Zambrano…all examples of guys who we all know Jim Hendry can’t trade or isn’t going to trade.

Hendry’s legitimate trading chips? Well, I guess anything of value in the farm system. That and some loose parts like Fontenot.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 10, 2008 2:05 PM CDT reply actions

I was interested to see where people would put certain players

Like Gaudin, DeRosa, Cedeno, Marquis. These are players I suspect many Cub fans overrate in terms of their attractiveness to other teams. I suspect they underrate the trade value of Marshall or Fontenot.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Oct 10, 2008 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Would be hard to make economic sense of this.

Could get the most in return but would not necessarily make sense in any other way. Also included the free agents where trading isn’t viable now. We also should have an idea of what Harden, Johnson and Edmonds would fetch.

Most valuable: Zambrano, Ramirez, Lilly, Dempster if he wasn’t a free agent, Samardzija

Tier 2 valuable: Lee, Soto, Harden, Marquis, Marshall, Marmol, Wood if he wasn’t a free agent, maybe DeRosa and Soriano

Tier 3: Theriot and maybe Pie

I don’t think anybody else would get much in return.

by AboutTheCubs on Oct 10, 2008 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

Only ONE

The only person of considerable value on this team, that the team would probably be willing to trade, is probably DLee. I have a feeling though that Hendry and Lou will think of DLee’s season as an anomaly instead of the trend. I think Lou constantly batting Lee 3rd is proof of that…so, I doubt they’ll even try to trade him unless somebody approached the Cubs with a great deal.

Though I would love for the team to improve, i doubt there will be any big name differences next season than this one. The only exception may be if Dempster leaves, then we will have a big hole in the pitching rotation we will need filled. Hopefully then, Hendry will go get someone.

Basically, I do not think the Cubs will trade anybody of any real trade value. So, I don’t think there will be any significant TRADES over the winter for the Chicago Cubs.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 10, 2008 5:22 PM CDT reply actions