Larry Suarez and Junior Lake are in my 21-25 section that I tagged on at the end. Starlin Castro was better than Lake this past year and got the last nod for me, and Castro has a better shot to stick at short. Suarez was close, but it was tough for me to slide his upside in there, even though he looked good coming back from injury. Sample was limited, though. I think Lake and Suarez will do XST/Boise this upcoming season.

I have a tough time putting a kid like Lee Hak-ju in there without even seeing how he does against competition, even from a statistical analysis. There’s been a lot of high praise, and he could very well be on a top 20 list by the end of 09, but I think it’s too early.

The pitcher you are thinking of is Ryan Searle. I thought about putting him in the top 20, but like Lake/Suarez, he was in my 21-25 section at the end. He was very good this year, but BA had some negative comments on body and makeup that made me pause, since those folks do this for a living. There were enough intriguing arms, and Searle was good but doesn’t have blow away stuff.

Well, let’s sketch it out then.

A positive scenario would have him

2009 – Peoria to start, Daytona to finish
2010 – Some combination of Daytona/Tennessee
2011 – Tennessee/Iowa/Bigs?

I think that’s a fairly possible scenario, so yes, I can buy end of 2011, beginning 2012, which is perfect since Aramis’ contract ends after 2011 (although there’s a 2012 option). There were some positive signs that he can handle third, so that flows real well.

A best case scenario would be

2009 – Peoria, bump to Daytona, finish at Tennessee
2010 – Tennessee, Iowa, cup of bigs
2011 – in the bigs

That’s a ridiculously positive scenario and I doubt it happens. But if it does, it could mean Vitters playing first base for a year and then perhaps moving to third, depending on FA moves.

I think the first scenario is the more realistic path, though, so yes, end of 2011/2012 would be my guess as well. Only time will tell.

who else? I guess you can make a case for a guy like Nate Samson, but Spears should get some credit for being at a higher level. He isn’t that old for AAA … not young either, but he’s not too old for AAA. I think there’s a shot that Spears is a utility infielder in the bigs, but he very well could be organizational filler. That said, he got some points from me for being a guy in the upper levels that produced and wasn’t too old for the level. He had very good numbers in AA btw.

My Jake Fox best case comparison has been a more athletic Matt Lecroy. That said, Lecroy did make the bigs, so there is a shot that Jake does. Jake is a bit of a free swinger, though, and he got in a rut early in the year in AAA. He started showing signs of coming out of it when the Cubs bounced him down (his AAA numbers had inched up incrementally if I remember correctly). Defensively, he’s a corner OF/1st now, limiting his value unless his bat can be consistent. I think he’s one of those quad a types that could be a last man on the bench type with his ability to pinch at catcher if need be and be a righty bat with pop off the nebch, but may also shuttle back and forth between the bigs or the minors and be organizational fodder (which every organization needs).

I think, for a prospect list, he’s maybe top 30, but could be lower. The fact that he was demoted to a lower level, along with his age, plus his limitation to 1st/corner OF positions hurts. Doesn’t mean he can’t find some role in the bigs (some guys I didn’t list could find roles in the bigs) but the value isn’t that high, at least, not for me.

By start, I am referring to where he might go when he starts playing. That means, best case scenario is the summer for him. It’s probably more likely that he doesn’t pitch this year.

I contemplated Caridad, and he had a nice showing in AA. That said, by most accounts, fringy stuff with a decent fastball, and usable curve/change from what I understand. Throws strikes, but seems like an end of the rotation type or pen arm. Is he any better than Marco Carrillo, Hung-Wen Chen, Billy Muldowney (all back of the rotation projections)? He performed better in AA than Carrillo (the other two not reaching AA yet), but Caridad was also a bit older. It’s certainly a possibility for the top 20, as he was an intriguing performer in the upper levels of our system (and I was surprised when we bumped him up, as he had been somewhat average in High A). There’s a lot of folks that could’ve been in consideration at the end. I don’t buy Caridad there (I’d probably put him in the 30-40 range for me, although maybe late 20’s) but I can see someone else moving Esmailin up there.

If he pans out, he’ll likely be a plus offensive 2nd baseman. A lot of people compare him to Utley … I’m loathe to expect that type of quality, and I’m not sure the power is similar, but that’s one comparison I’ve read before.

Honestly, I don’t think Wilken has gotten off to a great start, although his first draft was hampered by the loss of picks. I think it’s probably too early to make any sort of complete judgment overall, though, as most of his guys are still in the lower levels. After 2009, though, we’ll get a far clearer picture.

I like Guyer. At one point this year, I thought he might have the potential to be in our top 10 (not that that is saying much). He tailed off a bit at the end. Guyer’s the “Wilken-type” pick – very athletic, toolsy kid. He showed some flashes. I’ve read that they plan on working him in CF full time, and he has the athleticism for it. If he can stick there, and his bat advances, he could be quite intriguing.

Former 1st round pick. He’s just fallen off the map. There were some questions about his mental toughness, some questions on conditioning in recent years. When he was drafted, that first summer, he looked intriguing. The Cubs tried changing his mechanics, he just couldn’t find any consistency with it, and things spiraled. There were some positive XST reports this past year, but that didn’t materialize in the NW League.

it’s getting better than where it was a couple years ago …

that said, i wouldn’t be surprised if we were ranked in the bottom 5 in terms of system talent.

The injury hurt him this year. I wasn’t sure where exactly to put him partly because of the injury. In the end, in this early list (and this is my early list, I’m still trying to work to 50, but each time I get around 30, I feel like I could order the list 101 ways), along with the injury factor was the fact that Alessandro is still a pen arm. Unless his third pitch picks up, he’s still Michael Wuertz-ish, and when you factor in the injury, I don’t know if I would change my mind and slide him into the top 20, when there’s about 10 more guys that I’m more inclined to move in there.

Doesn’t mean Maestri has little value to me. I think Maestri can develop into a useful player. But we have so many pen arms, and most of them didn’t make it into my list (the lefties Lambert and Papelbon, Dumas Garcia, Rocky Roquet, and Maestri).

I’m a huge fan of Rosa. A lot of it is projection. In school, he was a middle infielder (I believe he went to a JC … I’m too lazy to check right now). The Cubs tried him at 3rd, but he was a butcher there. With Vitters looking more comfortable at 3rd and ticketed for Peoria, and with Marquez Smith also comfortable at 3rd and likely ticketed for Daytona, I think Rosa will get a chance to settle in at first, which is where he likely heads, unless they try the OF. If he’s at first next year, if all goes well, he could be in line to replace Derrek Lee when Lee’s contract is up, assuming no separate moves have been made.

Statistically, he had one down month. Even with that month, he had a solid line for the MWL. I don’t think he’ll ever be smooth with the glove, but he should be okay for first. The big question is the power. Will it develop? I sent BA an email this summer, and they were pretty encouraged about Jovan’s power potential. His body needs to fill out some more. I don’t think any major swing changes need to be made, as he has a smooth stroke. He’s not going to crush 30-40 HR’s consistently, but he could be a strong option, I think, if all develops well that hits for solid 1st base power while hitting for a good average.

A lot of projection, but a lot to be excited about … especially considering our system.

I don’t know how serious this Lansford pitching thing is. If it’s serious (makes some sense, as no one expected his bat to really play), I could see that happen … but Smith’s bat didn’t show that much in Daytona when it was bumped up. One possibility is that Kyle Reynolds handles a large chunk of 3rd base at the start of Tennessee’s season with McGehee at 3rd in Iowa and perhaps Kroeger/Deeds handling first at Iowa.

Was okay playing 2nd. A bit shaky, which is somewhat understandable, but okay. He was better, although still shaky, at 3rd. With the 2nd base depth in our system, though (arguably the deepest spot, particularly if you consider Nate Samson and Ryan Flaherty future 2nd basemen as well), I don’t know if they move him there. Outside of Vitters, Smith is the only other real legit 3rd base target (unless Rosa’s d improves or Flaherty moves to 3rd) unless you consider some kids that were down in AZL this past year.

Looks like a possible 2nd/3rd projection, depending on his body matures.

As for Watkins, I think he’ll end up in the OF. Just a gut feeling on that …

Reason I think Watkins might end up in the OF is because he likely won’t stick at short and we have depth at 2nd. We have a lot of CF types, but not a lot of CF upside (a lot of them are in that smallish, leadoff hitter type mold). Watkins could offer some upside there, just a gut guess.

I haven’t heard many positive reports on Thomas’ glove improving. I am hopeful he can stick at 2nd, but it seems like a lot of folks aren’t certain. During the year, I was disappointed in his bat. But after some reflection, which may lead to me sliding him up my own list, his bat was about as expected … which considering he skipped low A and was a relatively raw collegian … is okay. Has to show improvement next year, though, particularly with the discipline. If we fast track Ryan Flaherty by sliding him to 2nd, we very well could see Thomas developed as a CF of the future type.

He was back and pitching in instructs. He hasn’t been dropped off the 40-man yet so that’s good news for him.

On the Daytona roster, he was listed as “suspended.” That was actually a clerical error on the Cubs part, according to Oneri Fleita. But he was out with shoulder problems for 95% of the season.