Bleed Cubbie Blue: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Cal RB Jahvid Best Seriously Injured, Carted Off Field

Hardball Times - a dissection of the '07 / '08 postseason debacles

The Hardball Times Chris Jaffe has a pretty interesting take on the 2008 postseason debacle. One of his assertions is that the relationship between the moves Lou made in the 2007 post season and then the preparation for the 2008 post season after the division was clinched, had a significant impact on the self confidence of the team going into October.

It's unduly simplistic to claim a sole cause for the 2007-8 shortcomings, but some underlying causes can be rooted out. A key one revolves around the decisions and actions of the team's manager, Lou Piniella.

 snip

...for two straight years Piniella has prioritized physical preparation for his team. Both times the playoffs made painfully obvious that the Cubs sorely needed better mental preparation. What's more, his decision to prioritize physical preparation has likely helped cause their mental shortcomings.


The decision to treat players differently because the postseason is coming up sends the team some signals. First, it loudly pronounces to the players that the upcoming games are fundamentally different from everything they've experienced before. Second, it implies that they can't be trusted to win unless they approach this somehow differently.

If you think the team can just keep playing as they have all year and win, there's no need for any fancy adjusts on the verge of the postseason. Instead, these notions can make a team self-conscious. That's the single worst thing that can happen to a team. If you have to think about what you're doing, it won't be done properly. It should come naturally.

 

At the end of the day we all know the players didn't execute. Its been easy to point the finger at Soriano, Ramirez and Dempster, but perhaps Lou's post season preparation and plans had a far greater impact on that execution than any of us have been willing to admit.

 

Read the whole thing here and discuss..

 

 

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Very interesting article.

The quotes you pulled out of the article pretty much sum it up, but I think this one is appropriate as well,

To make an odd analogy, I once asked my mother where the “E” key is on a typewriter. She’s been a secretary most of her adult life and can type over 100 words a minute. Because I made her think, she was caught flatfooted and had to go over all the keys, finger-by-finger, in her mind before answering. That’s Piniella’s Cubs in the playoffs.


Until the Cubs play like it’s just another game in the playoffs I fear the choking will continue.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 15, 2008 1:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I guess the preview button is your friend...

“Until the Cubs play like it’s just another game in the playoffs I fear the choking will continue.” should not be in the quote box.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 15, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You clearly choked.

:)

In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this? -Oysterband

by Ross on Oct 15, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The pressure got to me.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 15, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Did you stop to think about posting before you posted?

If so, there’s your answer.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 15, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think your last mini-paragraph

sums up every post i’ve made about Lou since the end of the playoffs

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 15, 2008 1:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You know, Lou did the same thing last year.

Not with pre-playoff preparation — because the Cubs didn’t clinch until there were two days left in the season — but when he yanked Z out of game 1 too early. This must have gotten the rest of the team thinking, “This is way different than how we played the rest of the year” — too much thinking, not enough playing.

If anyone can do any sort of analysis of Piniella’s other playoff series LOSSES and see if there’s any common thread here, I’d like to see it. Let it be said, however, that until Lou came to the Cubs his teams had won the first playoff series they played — except one, the 1997 Mariners, who lost an ALDS 3-1 to the Orioles.

Worth checking into, I’d think.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 15, 2008 2:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Guess What???

Lou Piniella has a 23-27 postseason managerial record.

How many postseason victories in GAME 1 of the postseason (either the CS or DS depending on the year)? ONE – 2000 Mariners.

Interesting indeed. Let me know if you seek further research – I will save the info.

"Just win tonight" - derv

by derv on Oct 15, 2008 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, actually I would like to see more.

I do seem to remember that when he won the 2000 ALDS vs. the White Sox, the consensus was that Lou had completely outmanaged Jerry Manuel.

That may have been the only time.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 16, 2008 7:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty interesting stuff, I must admit

I wonder if that’s something that the organization will notice — or our pal Bruce Miles.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 15, 2008 4:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one who still agrees with the Zambrano move from last year?

Late 2007 Marmol was unstoppable. It’s not like we were lifting Zambrano for Bob Howry, circa 2008. Lou rolled the dice by switching to Marmol, but he had better odds on these new dice (sorry for the poor analogy), since a fresh White Castle is a better pitcher than a potentially tiring Z. Just because you give yourself better odds doesn’t mean that you’ll get the desired outcome though.

Some people have 3 layers, like pie. Blog Blog Blog

by berselius on Oct 15, 2008 4:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

I agree, I never thought it was bad move. It was just a move that didn’t work. Hindsight is 20/20

"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"

by MerlinDog on Oct 15, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're not alone...

but I only agree with it for the fact that the Cubs lost because they didn’t score. Had Z pitched a complete game and not let any more runs in…the Cubs still would have lost that game. The fact that he never pitched again wasn’t because he was pulled early, it’s because the team didn’t perform in games 2 and 3.

by CubFan81 on Oct 15, 2008 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought the move was ok

And CF81 is right — the Cubs didn’t score. Everyone conveniently forgets that part of it when they bring up this ancient history.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 16, 2008 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very well written article...

…but I just don’t buy a lot of it. First of all, the Cubs are loaded with veterans, most of which have been to the post season before and some have rings. Resting them a tad before the playoffs is not going to trigger some negative thoughts that the upcoming games are somehow different – they already know that on their own and have been through it before. If this was a very young team, I would give this theory more merit, but not with guys that have played as many games as this core group.

You can certainly question some of Lou’s post season decisions (as you could any losing manager), but IMO, there is no valid reason the players should not have been mentally ready to be on top of their game, and they weren’t even close.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 15, 2008 6:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,

I’m not sure I buy into the whole article’s argument, although I have espoused a similar theory. I think that Lou fails to instill confidence in his players, but the more I think about it, I don’t think that or any other one single thing explains the Cubs’ loss. That’s frustrating because we’d all like to be able to say, “This is what has to change and then it will work.” I don’t think we can do it. We just have to put the best team out on the field next year and play the games.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 15, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, there is plenty of blame to be share by the managers and players.

But I woud disagree with the article’s use of the Zambrano decision from 2007. I agreed with it then and now.

It seems that one of Lou’s mistakes includes going too long with Dempster in Game 1, which according to this article might be a correction compared to removing Zambrano too soon. But I think other posters in other threads have pointed out how Lou seemed to handle some pitchers as if they must throw a strike on every pitch and others were given much more cushion. Others have also pointed out the apparent contradictions in publicly banishing Fukudome and then making him the starter and No. 2 hitter-surprise!

I think things like the above are Lou’s share for the losses, but not really support for the choke. Furthermore, reagrding using the bullpen on that last day, I think the vast majority of SPs will favor a day or two of rest at that point in the season.

There isn’t just one single reason why we lost/choked but sure the Manager deserves some blame as well.

by DudeVf11 on Oct 15, 2008 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

At the same time...

… by doing what he did, Lou sent the message that: “Play differently than you have all year for the last week of the regular season” — in games against key playoff contenders — and then turn a switch and play differently again on October 1.

I would argue that this might have taken the mental edge away from the players. You’re right that they weren’t mentally ready. This may be one of the reasons.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 16, 2008 7:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was driving home tonight and ESPN Radio played the Bartman call...

The announcer described Alou being upset at the fan, etc…

I hate to bring this particular play up again but I think it relates to the topic. One could argue that Alou, Prior, Gonzo, Dusty, etc…all reacted poorly (choked) after that play. The players/manager collective response is instructive and it also sets the tone for future events.

Now look at Game 1 v. LA, the ridiculous performance by Depmster and his manager leaving him in too long may set the tone for that and the next game. Players may try too hard or they may have a feeling that onc something goes wrong then everything is lost, or they have to win it all themselves.

This organization has not responded well collectively to adverse circumstances, even to the point of entertaining the curse in pre-game promos.

But back to the LA series in particular, the Cubs did not show that they could come back from such apparently poor performance by a player that they expected to be a rock—this despite many comebacks in the regular season in 2008.

Finally, it cannot be stressed enough that no single explanation can be found. The Cubs were a resilient team in 2008 and they looked hapless v. LA. It’s a combination of numerous factors and certainly choking by manager and player ares should be included.

by DudeVf11 on Oct 15, 2008 10:18 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Lou's entire persona is more of the problem

he is very high-strung and uptight, which is probably good to keep players focused during the marathon season but not conducive to staying loose in the postseason, which is obviously much more important for the Cubs than for other teams.

the pink hat guy is my father

by joeschmitt on Oct 15, 2008 11:41 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Then how did the 1990 Reds win the World Series?

The A’s were a far better team that year, but not only did Cincinnati beat them, they swept them.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 16, 2008 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree...

…its the high strung guys that usually wear on a team during the long regular season, not the short in length playoffs where the players should see the prize and the light at the end of the tunnel.

I really think this is over analyzing this issue and lets face it, managers/coaches with all sorts of different personalities have won champions. In fact, there is little question, the most successful managers/coaches are ones that keep their players on edge (challenge them) vs the laid back players managers.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 16, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You overrate the motivational powers of a manager

Lou Piniella can be evaluated on his strategic player moves and non-moves. Like sticking with the guess hitting hack in the leadoff spot or playing Kosuke in the playoffs as opposed to Reed Johnson and Mike Fontenot. But there is no magical speech or couch session that gets 25 players to perform up to their capabilities in the post-season.

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

This aint’ Knute Rockne and win one for the Gipper. The players have a job to do and the have to be prepared to do it before the series starts. The are no halftime speeches in baseball.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Players play. Put the blame where it belongs and stop over analyzing.

This team wasn’t good enough. The Phillies would have beat them too. They don’t need Stuart Smally to come in and tell them they are good enough, smart enough and dogonnit. people like you. They need to play better baseball aginst playoff teams.

by Rick B on Oct 16, 2008 7:31 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Theory But....

I don’t think it applies. The Cubs rested Soto ( hand ) and DeRosa ( calf ) with real injuries. Aramis , Edmonds and Soriano usually have some nagging leg issue and definitely shouldn’t have played on the wet field at Shea. Theriot needed a breather as he was running out of gas. Z and Harden needed recovery time for their shoulders.

We actually sputtered to the finish line because except for the series against the Astros we really didn’t play that well in Sept. In fact, we scored 3 or less runs in 10 of the 24 games. No wonder Lou was worried about the offense. That won’t win many games and against elite pitching it could have even been worse.

 By the time the post season arrived, it looks like the Cubs weren’t quite the same team as they were most of the season. They weren’t scoring almost at will, Z and Harden weren’t the same and the bullpen was struggling. That in itself raises questions. Were they burned out from the intensity of driving hard all season and just ran out of gas? Did nagging injuries start to catch up with key players ?

I think a more appropriate analysis is why did the Cubs start tailing off in September and what can be done to fix that next season so they don’t lose their edge. Most teams that do well in the playoffs enter the post season playing well. Maybe it’s just as simple as that.

by alexinSac on Oct 16, 2008 5:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with what you are saying about tailing off in September.

It may be a function of the older players that we have. All of that day baseball, too?

But one other example of choking or being tight mentally was Derosa indicating that it was “do or die” or something like that after game 1. That seemed to really upset Pinella and might be indicative of some of the team being apprehensive, tight, or down after game 1.

But i totally agree that this team died back at the end of August, they were not playing well and they would have been smoked worse by the Phillies. They couldn’t find that spark again.

by DudeVf11 on Oct 17, 2008 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to Bleed Cubbie Blue, the Chicago Cubs blog for the SB Nation, created on February 9, 2005 by Al Yellon
Start posting about the Cubs »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Jake_fox_small
Cubs Should Go After Rich Hill
Chicagocubs1914_small
Last Out to First Pitch – The 2009-10 Offseason IT'S HAPPENING!!!??? Contest
Small
More From the Cubs in Winter Ball
Small
Don't Make the Mistake of Dumping Bradley
Dscn2381_small
Why Other Teams Should Want Milton Bradley

Recent FanPosts

Small
Should we trade him, or should we not?
Chicagocubs1914_small
OT: Big-Ten, Vista-Demolition, Anything-Goes-on-a-Saturday Game Thread
Madduxflag_small
Starlin Castro Vitters etc LIVE Sat night
Helmet_small
Az Fall League Cubs
4167bqf31ml
Five tool player available!
Self-portrait-4_small
This Might Be A Long Shot...
Madduxflag_small
Convention Sold Out
P272649reg_small
OT: Why not name a field after Ernie?
Cubs_sweatrshirt_on_gravestone_small
Vernon Wells - prepping to be a Cub

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Gomez to drink your Brew, Hardy to eat your Twinkie
BP interviews Sam Fuld. Great read!
Who was the best MLB player born on your birthday?
Gary Matthews Jr.
Kerry Wood Says Black Players Got Hate Mail

Recent FanShots

OT: Lidge to have surgery
OT, sexist and imho funny
J.J Putz's Option Declined by Mets.
Does Soriano's defense at 2B really cost more runs than in LF?  He makes a lot fewer errors in LF since misplays and mental mistakes aren't figured into the stats, but I have to imagine that his mistakes are more physical at 2B.  Any thoughts?  Is there a statistic on this?
Sosa pays tribute to Michael Jackson?
Harden, Johnson File For Free Agency
Brett Myers released by the Phillies
Mark Teahen to Chicago....White Sox
More On The Dodger Divorce

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

It Is Only...

Cubs By The Numbers

Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.

Click here to order your copy, available now!

SPONSORS

Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges

Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: Cubs Convention 2010
Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: General 2009 Ticket Exchange
Yelloncard_small
Ticket Exchanges: September 29-October 4 Homestand

Managing Editor

Yelloncard_small Al

Editorial Cartoonist

Toonmike_small toonmike

Contributors

Dsc_0139_small holy mackerel

100px-boisehawkscaplogo_small Josh77

Small shawndgoldman