For all those people who want Furcal...
by Cubbinstrongsince86 on Oct 16, 2008 12:26 AM CDT
167 comments
Rafael Furcal went 0-for-4 and committed three errors in Wednesday’s loss.
The three errors, two of which came on the same play, led to two runs in the fifth, putting the Dodgers in a 5-0 hole. Furcal went 4-for-21 and committed four errors in the series. Not that it will take much of a toll on his value, but it’s clearly not the way he wanted to head into free agency.rotoworld
Just like our four infielders in game two, he made three errors in one game plus another earlier in the series. Furcal is not the answer. For the simple fact the last few times we've brought in guys like this i.e. Juan Pierre they've been busts. I don't want to see Hendry waste money on a guy like that only to have him flop big time. He also spent the majority of this year on the DL and a couple of weeks in 07 as well.I hope Hendry doesn't go after something we don't need.
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Ummm okay so he has one bad game and now he isn't good?
He was the best player in the NL the first month of the season. Ryan Theriot, who some people here want to stay at SS isn’t 1/10th the player Furcal is offensively or defensively.
If the Cubs signed Furcal he would be worth every penny.
Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #12 5-1 (1-1). Next up at Texas. Jeremy Maclin can still win the Heisman.
by nji232 on Oct 16, 2008 12:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Only one game
but much has been said on this site lately about acquiring players who have “it” in the post-season, whatever “it” is.
I’m not saying I agree with that, or whether Furcal’s performance in this series makes any difference in future playoff series, but it is a good topic of discussion.
by TC Cubby on Oct 16, 2008 7:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I posit that having three errors in one inning
in the postseason this year makes him statistically less likely to have it happen again in the future. He’s used them all up. :)
Chicago Cubs Humor, News and Parody at The Cubs Brickyard
by AceCubbie on Oct 17, 2008 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I applaud your use of the word "posit."
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 17, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do not applaud the hypothesis though...
points for using the term “posit”, but points taken away for assuming that existence of the past outlier makes it less likely he’ll make future errors. If they’re random, then there’d be no difference in the probability of error moving forward. And if they aren’t random, then I’d argue that the errors may lead to more errors, as they would get into his head.
Okay. Enough of that. Sorry for the nerd patrol.
by SouthernCub on Oct 17, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't his defense that we are going after
It’d be his leadoff ability. So he didn’t have a great series. I hardly would place the Dodgers series loss on him. He’s still one of the few bona fide leadoff options easily available (through FA instead of having to go through the trade market).
That said, if I’m a betting man, I take Furcal and the Dodgers reupping for 3 years.
by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2008 1:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Actually his defense is a big issue for me.
Errors happen. But lack of range and arm strength never comes out of its slump.
Being a leadoff hitter and a switch-hitter is just what makes Furcal perfect for the Cubs’ wishlist.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 8:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 137 postseason at bats,
Furcal is a career .204 hitter
I’m not sure where to find postseason defensive stats.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's still an extraordinarily small sample.
Especially for something like batting average – I think that for R-squared to hit .7 on split-half correlation with batting average, you need something like 800 PAs. This being hypothetical, because that simply doesn’t happen.
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
137 at bats in the POST SEASON
Is a VERY large sample. Tell me in the world has 800 post season at bats ?
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 16, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was cwyers' last point...
137 at bats is a large sample relative to the availability of post-season AB. But from a significance standpoint (especially when you consider that it’s over a span of 7-8 years), it’s a very small sample.
The point cwyers was making is that you aren’t going to get a relevant sample size to draw comparisons between regular season and postseason effectiveness. There are just too few games and too much room for random variation.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the bottom line for me,
The Cubs have shown the ability to win in the regular season. They have not shown the ability to win in the postseason.
They already have players that haven’t produced in the postseason (albeit 6 total games is a very small number of games but that is so small because they haven’t managed to win even a single game.)
If Furcal, over the course of his career for roughly 7 or 8 postseason appearences, has not produced, how could we expect his performance to be any different with the Cubs?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not at all for the idea of getting Furcal...
but I don’t think using postseason stats is a good argument. It’s just too small a sample size.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about the Phillies?
The were swept in the NLDS last year. They stuck with the same guys and philosophy this year and lo and behold, their luck changed and they won a series.
What the bottom line is that there’s a lot of luck (or variance) involved with any small sample, such as a 5 game series. His regular season stats are more indicative of what he can do that 100+ post season at bats, spread out over a decade, really are.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
I think random variation and luck play a BIG part of the postseason. You generally have to be good to get there, but sometimes things just work out in crazy ways when you play best-of-five and best-of-seven series. For example, see the 2006 Cardinals.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, that's a good point.
Check out these lineups:
’07 NLDS ’08 NLDS 1. JRoll 1. JRoll 2. Victorino 2. Werth 3. Utley 3. Utley 4. Howard 4. Howard 5. Rowand 5. Burrell 6. Burrell 6. Victorino 7. Helms 7. Feliz 8. Ruiz 8. Ruiz 9. Hamels 9. Hamels
Seven of the nine players remained the same.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, the Phillies have essentially the same players as last year.
They were swept last year and have advanced to the world series this year.
The difference with the Cubs is they were swept last year AND this year! They had the same core players but the same result both years in the playoffs.
The reason the Cubs haven’t even won a game in the playoffs is they didn’t play in the playoffs like they did in the regular season. The Phillies won in the regular season and won in the playoffs this year by essentially playing the same throughout. What needs to happen for the Cubs to do the same?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, at the risk of being morbid and inappropriate...
…maybe someone’s elderly mother or grandmother needs to…y’know…
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not quite true...
The Phillies didn’t play the same way. Utley and Howard stunk in the NLCS this year. So Rollins, until the last game of the series. They just happened to get fortunate that their secondary players happened to come up with big hits at the right times.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, just realized I forgot to note that these are the Game One NLDS lineups.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a very large sample.
Even for a player who plays full time over an entire season, batting average is not very reliable – past batting average is weakly correlated with future batting average. It’s highly unstable.
The number of PAs a player has determines how certain we can be about what his batting line is telling us. In the case of Furcal, we know a lot more about his hitting by looking at the larger split (regular season performance.)
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
leadoff..
And he hits leadoff, that was a major distraction this year when it was an issue. Fonzie could see the difference he makes and stay quiet about it. A major impact player, the health issue is there, but, its there with everyone.
ernie81
by ernie81 on Oct 16, 2008 5:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's funny you mention Juan Pierre..............
……………..in your post because it was Hendry’s failure to sign Furcal that prompted the stupid trade with the Marlins to secure Pierre.
Had Hendry inked Furcal, we’d still have Nolasco/Pinto/Mitre available, or they could have been traded for more meaningful players over the past three years.
The worst of this was the fact that, at the time of the Furcal whiff, Hendry was flush with cash to spend on free agents. But after missing on Furcal and with no lead off hitters available for purchase, he had to drop three arms to get Pierre in the last year of his contract. Stupid. Really stupid.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Oct 16, 2008 6:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hendry wanted Furcal. McFail wouldn't give him 3 years at $11 million.
I’d be careful with Furcal. He had a back problem this year and we see how that worked out for Crede. He also has had a couple of DUI’s. Wrigleyville + Furcal = Farnsworth
by Rick B on Oct 16, 2008 7:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You've got it completely wrong, incidentally.
The Cubs DID make an offer — 5 years, $48 million (I may have that total number not quite right, but it was about that much).
Furcal decided to take the Dodgers offer, which was more money per year but less years, WITHOUT GIVING THE CUBS A CHANCE TO MATCH IT.
He did this, apparently, because he felt he could go to free agency after that deal was up — which is now — and cash in again. We’ll see if this is actually the case.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 16, 2008 7:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that was frustrating
But couldve been a good move on his part, especially since he actually got back on the field.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 16, 2008 8:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would caution teams to make a decision on Furcal's health
based upon his ability to come back and play in the postseason.
Joe Crede is a good example. He was able to come back and play a few months but he had more back problems which ended his season.
I wonder if the same could happen if a team signs Furcal.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe this is the place to ask
If anyone has seen Orlando Hudson play, could he be moved to shortstop? He seems to bring many of the same talents as Furcal, and is simply a fantastic second baseman. But what about his arm?
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Oct 16, 2008 7:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No, he couldn't.
Total major league games played at SS for Hudson: zero.
Total minor league games played at SS for Hudson: zero.
He’s a second baseman. Forget it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 16, 2008 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention an excellent one...
I’ve have to imagine that a team asking him to change positions would be a deal breaker.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 16, 2008 8:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
minaya
wants hudson badly from everything i’ve read.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Oct 16, 2008 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If I was stupid enough
to give an aging Castillo 5/25, I’d want to fix that problem quickly as well. But that doesn’t mean that it will happen. And definitely not if you start asking a Gold Glove player to swap positions for no reason of his own.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 16, 2008 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats what I was getting at
when I said minaya wants him. when he wants a player bad enough, he will go to any links to sign em.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Oct 16, 2008 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps so
I could imagine a player being willing to move up in the defensive spectrum as a way to increase his value, however. A right fielder who says he could adjust to center, a first baseman who claims to play third, etc. It’s not like you would be asking him to move to the outfield.
But you’re right, Hudson will have options this fall.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Oct 16, 2008 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's one thing for a player like Theriot to move up the defensive spectrum
while he’s yet to sign his first FA contract. Huddy’s probably at his last or next-to-last FA contract. It doesn’t make sense for him to try and do that. If the Cubs want him, they want him as a 2B.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not exactly what I asked
I am aware he has not played SS before. But he is possibly the best second baseman in the game today, with tremendous range. If the Cubs were even considering moving Brian Roberts to shortstop, or if fans on this board wanted to put DeRosa there, and given how many folks thought (and think) that Theriot isn’t even a good second baseman, let alone shortstop, it seems like a reasonable question. I expected a little more insight than “Forget it.”
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Oct 16, 2008 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
honestly
I dont think there is any insight there.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Oct 16, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
People who suggest DeRosa should play SS
or that we acquire Roberts and move him to SS are met with the reaction.
by IllinoisCubs on Oct 16, 2008 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
While Hudson has the range and hands to play SS,
he doesn’t have the arm. DeRo doesn’t have Hudson’s range, but he has a true SS arm. We’ve all seen how many plays Riot has failed to make (and weak throws that DLee has picked) due to his bad arm. Why put Hudson in the position of looking like a weak SS instead of a great 2B?
If the Cubs sign Hudson, they either move DeRo to SS (not likely with Lou as the manager and his pet Riot around), RF (not likely since Lou wants a LHB there), or another team.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Oct 16, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent.
Maybe the Dodger fan base will overreact to one game the same way ours has to 3, and the Dodgers won’t resign him.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 7:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
When your entire infield plays like
the Keystone cops in a game that you absolutely have to have, it’s not overreacting to be upset.
by Damen Jackson on Oct 16, 2008 8:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers will want to resign him...
…but they’ll probably want Manny more and Frank McCourt has some money problems, or so I’ve heard.
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know, I wonder about how much money McCourt is willing to spend.
When the Dodgers were making trades last summer, they weren’t willing to take on any salary. That’s why they gave up better prospects for Manny and Casey Blake since their former teams were paying all of their salary.
On the other hand, McCourt was willing to pay Andrew Jones $36 million and he turned out to be a flop. Add up all of the dollars the Dodgers had sitting on the bench or DL (Nomar, Pierre, Schmidt, Kent), maybe McCourt had reached his limit for last season.
I do wonder how far McCourt will go to sign both Manny and Furcal. Since Furcal was injured this year, I wonder if they might have a better chance of signing him for a one year “re-establish value” contract.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They also will be in the bidding for CC, I imagine...
since they’ll lose Lowe, Maddux, and (likely) Penny. The Dodgers do have deep pockets, but that’s a lot of money they may need to spend.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would not be sure about losing Lowe
It makes a lot more sense for the Dodgers to try to keep him than overspend on CC especially if they want to keep
Manny too. Maybe Boras will make them a package deal.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 16, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They will be in the bidding for an expensive pitcher...
one way or the other. Personally, I think it makes more sense to overpay for Sabathia than to overpay for Lowe. But either way, they’re going to be paying a lot of money to a free agent pitcher (or two) in addition to the decisions on Manny and Furcal.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers have quite a few free agents this offseason...
…and some very expensive arbitration cases looming.
I still think that the Dodgers is probably the most likely destination for Furcal, but there are looming obstacles.
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FYI they also have a lot of cheap young players
Probably more than any other big market team so it sort of balances out.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 16, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal's Back
I haven’t followed his medical reports all that carefully, but it seems to me that a SS/leadoff type who missed nearly the entire season with a bad back seems like a mighty big risk.
Eamus Ursuli!
by WGNstatic on Oct 16, 2008 8:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow, a whole game that something went bad!
Let’s not sign anyone! Except maybe Jesus. He’s perfect.
by lamentir on Oct 16, 2008 8:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Furcal's 2008 Post season
8 for 31 (.258) 1 extra base hit (HR), 6 BB’s, 4 K’s, 3 RBI’s 0 SB.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't find his fielding stats
but I know he had 4 errors in this series.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So I guess we should contract the Cubs
too…since they collectively sucked with the sticks in the playoffs.
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. If the BoSox lose
I guess they blow up that team, right? I think the Red Sox are frigging LOADED and they may get bounced by an upstart, perennial loser.
It’s finally sinking in that the playoffs are a crapshoot, period. Even the Phils, as strong as they have looked in this post season, they stumbled their fair share during the season. I thought they were going to win the East fairly easily, and it took another Mets collapse to do it, again. It’s all about when you get hot, just like a team with a hot goalie in hockey.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You could actually argue that this is a worse Phils team than last year
And they got swept out of the Division Series.
There’s so much chance involved in winning those short series that you just have to hope you have better luck next time. You don’t fundamentally change your core philosophy, or core group of players, based on 3 games.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it seems disingenuous to call the Rays an upstart
I understand, but they aren’t doing this with luck, they are, probably, the best team in baseball this year.
by tal1286 on Oct 16, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I agree with that...
I think they’re very good. But best in baseball this year? That’s saying a lot. The Cubs (better record and much better run differential), Red Sox (much better run differential), and Angels (better record) might have a beef with that statement.
I’ll agree that they were absolutely among the top 3-4 teams in baseball, though. And I’ll agree that it’s not all luck. But the offensive outburst they’ve put on the past week or so is well beyond what they’ve done this year. That’s in some part due to lucky timing.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the sox could claim to be better
but the Rays have consistently beaten them when all the chips are down.
small sample size… blah blah blah, whatever, eventually you have to recognize that a team is better than you. Whining about sample size is lame (i’ve done it too.)
Anyway, those are the only 2 teams with any claim to the best team in baseball crown, IMO.
by tal1286 on Oct 16, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
The angels were nowhere near as good as their record indicated.
by tal1286 on Oct 16, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Furcal and CC Sabathia's postseason numbers suggest that they would fit right in with the Cubs
Tho Furcal has prolly played in more postseason series than the entire Cubs team combined.
Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #12 5-1 (1-1). Next up at Texas. Jeremy Maclin can still win the Heisman.
by nji232 on Oct 16, 2008 9:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The old cliche
about stats and all that. That’s why they play the games. I have always believed the guys/team that wants it more, wins it, talent be damned (to a degree).
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to judge him on one game...
However, I do want to improve this team. We need a legit leadoff hitter and contrary to popular belief Furcal is pretty good with the glove as well. He is the best option unless you fill the need via trade. They can’t fill the need from within since a move to place a Theriot or Dome in the leadoff spot will only cause Soriano to go back there when either they or he starts to struggle. They need a guy who was brought in to specifically bat leadoff.
I just don’t think they can be a post season force with Soriano in the leadoff spot and they have a limited window with the players they have now. They need to improve the team for the next couple of years in order to take advantage of the investments that they have in their core players
FYI: I did not see any trade Ramirez posts when ARAM had that terrible game in September when he committed I believe three errors.
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 8:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
problem is
we have a pretty good core of players but there contracts add up to a pretty significant number headed into this offseason. we need a starter or 2, a closer, middle relief, a cf, a backup catcher, and a couple bench players.
i’m not against signing furcal but he wants a mega deal. he has back issues, has had a problem knowing when to put the bottle down, and is aging. even if we do sign him to his mega deal, what do we do about the other positions? we have no owner and I guarantee selig and his clowns will be screening everything we do until the impending sale is over.
one thing is for certain—hendry is gonna have to be creative in places even if we dont all agree on it.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Oct 16, 2008 8:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Soriano situation
is such that no, he’s not the prototypical lead off guy. He’s not a table setter and with his leg issues, he’s not that much of a threat on the bases like he used to be. BUT, when he strokes that leadoff HR, he ignites the team and they start raking.
OTOH, when he isn’t hitting dingers, we still win, mostly, but he’s an automatic out, almost.
I think that if he was better defensively, most BCBers would give him a pass. You throw a dropped flyball that costs us a win in the mix once in a while, and then nobody wants him at any price.
I know some people have said that he has good numbers hitting lower in the order, but he doesn’t have good numbers hitting lower with the Cubs. Yes, it’s a small sample size. Sori has never said he ONLY wants to bat leadoff, some folks forget that. I think Lou has got to bat him lower and leave him there for an extended period to get him settled and if he does put up some numbers, it gives us better choices for leadoff, whether it’s Theriot, Fontenot, DeRosa, Fukudome, or someone in a trade.
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 9:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure if Furcal is the right guy for us...
but I don’t think it’s fair to base the argument on last night’s game. People have bad games.
Now, if you want to discuss other reasons why he’s not the right fit, that’s fine. For example, for an “ideal leadoff hitter,” he’s only topped .350 in OBP three times in his seven full seasons (>100 games played). He had a nice 36-game stretch this year, but I’ll withhold judgement because he’s actually been a streak hitter in his career (sound familiar?). I’m not sure he’s the answer to the consistent leadoff presence that we’re looking for at all.
Another concern is the back. He’s in his 30s now and had a major back injury this year. For a shortstop, that’s a big red flag of concern. The amount of bending over and spinning and all the stress that playing that position puts on the back makes me wonder if he can continue to be effective at the position.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Furcal v. Soriano leading off
Career #s leading off an inning:
A.S. .302/.341/.567
R.F. .296/.344/.437
Career #s leading off a game:
A.S. .310/.352/.623
R.F. .277/.322/.404
Roughly projected 2009 OBP
A.S. .345
R.F. .355
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 9:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Plus, with Sori's contract
he probably isn’t going anywhere, anyway. Good numbers!
"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse
by BigJohnAZ on Oct 16, 2008 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Hendry should invest time and see if there's any way he can move Soriano,
because even if we don’t get anything at all for Soriano except salary relief, the switch between Soriano’s Age 33-39 seasons and Adam Dunn’s Age 29-33 seasons mean that the Cubs would be well served to dump the one contract and take on the other. I know Adam Dunn is imperfect, but Dunn fits the Cubs lineup better than Soriano.
So, how about sending Soriano + Cash to the Braves who are looking for a RH LF bat for Kelly Johnson – then put Johnson back at SS?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One big problem with that suggestion...
The Braves act as a small-market team, and thus they don’t like to take on expensive contracts for aging players. Soriano isn’t really the type of player for whom they’d be looking.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 10:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
Kelly Johnson has spent the last two years exclusively at 2B. The Braves also have their SS already in Yunel Escobar. Getting a LF makes no impact on Johnson.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who would they be looking for?
They want a RH slugger. They have LF open. They also take on some older players. Who else makes a better option for them? I think they’d like Sori’s contract (with us paying part of it) better than what they’d have to pay for Manny.
As for KJ – no, they wouldn’t just give him up, although he’s starting to get more expensive and they have a number of other middle IF options from, including the best Cub SS from Infante to Lillibridge to Prado. I’m suggesting we put in enough cash to get KJ back. Yes, he’d be dicey at SS – but we can’t get worse at SS, so…
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A cheaper option...
And again, why would they trade a cheap and productive 2B in Johnson for an expensive aging power hitter in Soriano?
Would the Braves like to have a hitter as productive as Soriano? Absolutely. But they value cost-containment more than the big-market teams. I don’t think there’s any realistic chance of a trade like that happening.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can you imagine Cos dealing with Sori?
Cox won’t stand for a player like Soriano. All that bad defense and laziness we have grown accustomed to here won’t fly with Cox.
by dakoose on Oct 16, 2008 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And both players are streaky hitters...
Furcal’s month-by-month splits over the past three or four years suggest that he’s just as much a feast-or-famine hitter as Soriano.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of being a leadoff hitter
Furcal is Soriano minus the power.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of...
He’s also a switch-hitter and he doesn’t strike out nearly as much. But otherwise, I’ll agree with that description.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still harbor ill-will towards Furcal
For the DLee incident. To me, that was the turning point from DLee being a superstar to him being just a “good” player
DON’T SIGN HIM! GRRRRRRRRR
"Pounding sand since 1982...."
by cubswynn on Oct 16, 2008 9:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Furcal?
I don’t know about him. I didn’t like the idea last time, and I still don’t. I hope the Cubs do something different. I don’t know what… but I am not at peace with this possibility.
by TheHawkRules on Oct 16, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Furcal will stay with the Dodgers
Dodgers have no lead-off man and no shortstop without him. Dodgers spend money like the Yankees and Red Sox too. Getting a deal done on Furcal will be simple task for them.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 10:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the Dodgers will likely re-sign Furcal...
and I’m not terribly upset by that fact. I think he’s a bit overrated as a leadoff man. As has been discussed, his OBP as a leadoff man isn’t that much better than Soriano’s and he’s similarly feast-or-famine up there (minus the power and minus the strikeouts).
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Hu?
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who Hu?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hu's on Short.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers have a replacement available in Hu...
…are short on cash and have the big Manny Question to deal with. I wouldn’t call this a sure thing.
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dat's what I'm talkin' 'bout.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must not have read the post...
It is going to be a simple task.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, just as simple as...
…not calling up Pie in September and not putting him on the postseason roster.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not as simple
as putting Hoff on the postseason roster. Haven’t you been listening to Sweet Lou?
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My question, is he worth the $10-12M more
than it’ll take for Theriot. While he brings the excellent leadoff player the Cubs need, are there more pressing needs given the amount of money it’d cost?
Guess if Hendry’s budget goes WAAAAY up then this is not an issue.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
by blackhawk24 on Oct 16, 2008 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
He's not worth the difference...
but at the same time, I don’t think keeping Theriot at shortstop makes sense either. As a 2B (and perhaps in a Fontenot/Theriot platoon even), I think he’s fine. But I think he’s a liability defensively at shortstop.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
While his defensive problems will go away(somewhat)
if he shifts over to second base, his offensive limitations will be exposed. There are two positions where strictly singles hitters/OBP men can play, those being catcher and shortstop. Theriot doesn’t have enough offense to play second base. Plus, he is the third best overall second baseman on our team. I would rather give that spot to DeRo or Fontenot, and maybe even Cedeno.
by dakoose on Oct 16, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So much of this post-season would be easier
if Jim Hendry stop taking calls from Lou for a week and traded Theriot to a team that overvalues scrappiness. If Scott Podsednik could get Carlos Lee….
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If ever there was a "sell high" candidate...
it would be Ryan Theriot.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't disagree...
I was merely stating the argument against Theriot at SS.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal's worth between 1-4 more wins per year
My guess would be that’s on the high side (assuming Furcal can stay healthy, and Theriot can’t repeat his 2008 numbers).
$10M a year for 2 or 3 wins seems pretty fair.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially when your manager is complaining about needing
speed and left-handed bats (not named Felix).
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's funny...
…I was listening to the Phillies-Dodgers game on the radio last night when Furcal made all those errors, and the first thought that flashed through my mind when he booted that double-play ball was:
RAFAEL FURCAL IS A CUB!!!
Last night’s debacle aside, he’s looked pretty damn good in the postseason. I’d love for the Cubs to have his defense and it would be nice to have a speedy switch-hitter at the top of the lineup, though I must confess I never would have guessed Furcal’s numbers fell below Soriano as indicated above.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think another benefit of signing Furcal would be making Theriot tradeable
I would be willing to bet some teams would like to have Theriot, even if it is to play second base. I don’t know the Padres situation at second base, but he could be used in a run at Jake Peavy.
Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #12 5-1 (1-1). Next up at Texas. Jeremy Maclin can still win the Heisman.
by nji232 on Oct 16, 2008 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’ve thought the same thing. If the Cubs bring in Furcal, then they could spin Theriot plus other prospects in a trade to bring in a piece they could really use (Brian Roberts, Jake Peavy).
Never, but NEVER, put ketchup on a hot dog.
by CaliCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say he's looked that good...
Defensively, he has a MUCH stronger arm than Theriot, but he did seem to struggle handling grounders on which he had to extend himself (i.e., up the middle or in the hole). I wonder if that is related to the back or just a small sample size issue. If it’s back-related, that’s a big problem.
Offensively, he’s very similar to Soriano in terms of streakiness. He hasn’t been a high walk guy for a while, and he is very up-and-down. He is a fast switch hitter who doesn’t strike out a ton, but other than that I don’t think he’s much of an upgrade on Soriano in that spot.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So let me get this straight...
Cubs have Ryan Theriot who is manager favorite, is cheap and chalked in with a .385 OBP and consistent albeit non-spectacular defense.
Rafael Furcal is free agent that has become object of affection by the peanut gallery. The same Furcal who fills two critical needs for the deep-pocket Dodgers, shortstop and lead off man. The same Furcal who missed the bulk of 2008 with BACK PROBLEM !! The same Furcal who has barely hit over .200 in a large post-season sample size.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I suppose you could say it was consistant, if you're not worried about it being any good.
Yes, Theriot was consistantly below-average defensively.
And he fills the same two critical needs for the deep-pocket Cubs. In fact, I’d say it’s more critical for us than them – Hu is a better player than Theriot.
by cwyers on Oct 16, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just say no to Rafael Furcal
Furcal is about to turn 31, missed most of 2008 with back problem and is remarkably non-spectacular on offense when you peel back the skin of the onion. But alas, this would be classic Jim Hendry move. Go out and pay huge price for a player whose best years are behind him and who has warning signs about his health and offensive game that scream. And give him one of those Hendry Specials…a back-loaded contract with no-trade clause.
SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2000 Atl 131 455 87 134 20 4 4 37 73 80 40 14 .295 .394 .382 .776
2001 Atl 79 324 39 89 19 0 4 30 24 56 22 6 .275 .321 .370 .691
2002 Atl 154 636 95 175 31 8 8 47 43 114 27 15 .275 .323 .387 .710
2003 Atl 156 664 130 194 35 10 15 61 60 76 25 2 .292 .352 .443 .795
2004 Atl 143 563 103 157 24 5 14 59 58 71 29 6 .279 .344 .414 .758
2005 Atl 154 616 100 175 31 11 12 58 62 78 46 10 .284 .348 .429 .777
2006 LA 159 654 113 196 32 9 15 63 73 98 37 13 .300 .369 .445 .814
2007 LA 138 581 87 157 23 4 6 47 55 68 25 6 .270 .333 .355 .688
2008 LA 36 143 34 51 12 2 5 16 20 17 8 3 .357 .439 .573 1.012
Total — 1150 4636 788 1328 227 53 83 418 468 658 259 75 .286 .352 .412 .764
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gee, thanks for dumping a bunch of really hard-to-read numbers on us.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is...
Furcal isn’t the panacea at leadoff that some think he is.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough.
I’ll admit that is a good point.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers Have Several FAs and Arb Eligible Players
so I don’t know how deep their pockets will be this offseason.
Never, but NEVER, put ketchup on a hot dog.
by CaliCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hu can't hit his way out of a paper bag
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here we go...
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yo dawg, you a Hu hater.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Minor leaguers must succeed immediately at the major league level
Otherwise they are worthless in the eyes of Blue Mike.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Lou.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Come see the "Can't Hit Major League Pitching" Smackdown.
__________________________________
Featuring Chin-lung Hu vs. Felix Pie
Balls missing bats!
Hideous swings!
Horrified hitting coaches!
Rated R for “retired (on strikes).”
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you really want to get it straight...
2008 Ryan Theriot is 2003’s Scott Podsednik – he has to go now while he still has value to a handful of teams. His defense at SS is atrocious. All it takes is for his AVG to fall and he has NO value.
Rafael Furcal is not my first choice. What he is is just what Lou wants. I’d prefer making a run at Asdrubal Cabrera.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm no fan of Furcal...
but I wouldn’t be listing Theriot’s defense as a reason that we don’t need Furcal. Theriot is not a good defensive SS.
Also, I wouldn’t expect that .385 OBP to continue. This seems like a really good time to sell high on Theriot. I wouldn’t replace Theriot with Furcal, but I’d like to replace him with someone who’s more suited to play SS.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOOK hard at Furcal
31 years old
Back problem
Post-season BA of around .200 in a meaningful sample size of ABs
OBP that is non-spectacular
Will cost a crapload
No!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is falling into the same trap of the Alfonso Soriano debacle. Do the homework and it screams out loud and clear that Furcal is a bad, bad investment for the dollars and years he will command.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read my post at all?
I in fact agree with you that Furcal is not the guy to get. I don’t need your lecture on Furcal.
What I disagree with you on is the idea of keeping Theriot as a shortstop.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should sign Jeff Blauser.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Already did. That deal was so bad at the time, he is probably still under
contract.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Oct 16, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Gary Gaetti...
…then we spin Ramirez for Nolan Ryan.
"...the internet is not something you just dump something on. It's not a truck. It's a series of tubes." - Sen. Ted Stevens
by bobby h on Oct 16, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
First of all, you’re not allowed to cite sample sizes. What are you, a sabermagician or something? Second of all, the data I’m looking at indicates that Furcal has hit .234 over eight postseason series. Now that’s not great, but I’d say it’s more than “barely…over .200”. Also, I’m not sure how representative a sample 137 ABs spread out over eight years really is. But, please, go on…oh, I see you already have.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go for it
I was wrong in thinking he hit .200-ish in the post-season. .234 it is.
If you want to be seduced into thinking Furcal is a value the Cubs must have then go for it.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never said he was "a value the Cubs must have."
To be honest, I’m not sold on whether he would be the right move for the Cubs. It’s just a little harder for me to dismiss him outright and, as SouthernCub just mentioned, I don’t need the lecture.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think "large sample size" means what you think it means
See cwyer’s post if you want to understand why.
The “peanut gallery” is looking for ways to improve the team. Furcal is worth a couple more wins per year that Theriot and would cost us only money, add a proven leadoff hitter, and a much needed switch hitter to the lineup.
I guess I can’t see where this is a bad idea.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"proven" leadoff hitter...
I’m going to disagree here. Furcal is a very similar leadoff hitter to Soriano. He’s very streaky and doesn’t have a high OBP. One thing Furcal does do better than Soriano is avoid the K. But he loses value in that he doesn’t generate as much offense, either.
Add to that the concern that the back may be a real concern moving forward and that Furcal’s best attribute (his speed) is something that doesn’t age particularly well, and I can see where signing Furcal could be a bad idea.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rafael Furcal is Juan Pierre with a shortstop glove in too many respects
And he will cost a shitload, is 31 and coming off a back injury. To go along with dubious production during his post-season career in Atlanta and Los Angeles.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well ya know
He is fast…
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he was wearing a Dodgers uniform last night.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
by dat cubfan daver on Oct 16, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's actually not very similar to Juan Pierre...
but I agree that he’s not a very good investment.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Big difference
Juan Pierre is a LF.
Rafael Furcal is a SS.
LFs are supposed to be able to hit the ball hard.
SSs are supposed to be able to field.
Pierre can’t hit the ball hard.
Furcal can field.
Furcal is not without downside. But SS is one of the hardest positions to fill and Furcal is still in the top half of SSs.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal has an arm. Literally. A right arm.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And he uses that arm
to throw to many balls away. That has been his MO during his career.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I prefer the Jacque Jones approach.
Just spike it into the ground in front of you.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is the Alfonso Soriano debate all over again....
And yes, I realize that Soriano and Furcal are two very different ballplayers. The POINT is that Jim Hendry and the Cubs were very guilty of not doing their homework on Soriano. Rather they were hellbent to make a big splash in free agency and ignored the fact that Soriano is a second division ballplayer with very many disturbing attributes and shortcomings to his game.
Do the homework on Furcal and you see he would be a bad, bad investment. We’ve got enough players with shortcomings on this roster that make a shitload of money. We don’t need to add to the dilemma.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do you know that Soriano isn't what they expected?
Are you honestly suggesting that Hendry and Co. didn’t do any kind of research into Soriano before investing $120M into him? Do you really think they’re that incompetent??
Soriano has come here and been the player he pretty much always has been. I guess I’m not sure why people constantly act surprised by the way he plays.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You answered your own question
What team in their right mind commits $136 million to a player of the plusses and profound minuses of Alfonso Soriano. And just LOOK how it has turned out !! A “franchise player” who can’t hit good pitching, goes into prolonged slumps, insists on being the leadoff hitter and disappeared two post seasons in a row !!!!
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
get over it already
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Oct 16, 2008 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, it's been a disaster
I cringed in pain as he almost single-handedly carried the Cubs to the playoffs in 2007.
I vomited blood in disgust as he hit 30 home runs in only 2/3rds of a season this year.
Seriously, is he overpriced? Yeah, a little. Mostly becuase he’s been hurt the last two years. But the notion that we’ve gotten absolutely nothing of value from him is completely wrong.
I think you’re more bothered by his price tag than anything, which won’t seem that high in a couple of years.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine
I shall not argue with charter member of the Alfonso Soriano Fan Club. What phone booth is your next chapter meeting going to be held in?
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same one where you hold your Rich Harden Meetings...
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, having an even-handed opinion of him makes me his biggest fan
Apparently thinking that Soriano is a flawed but valuable player, and that we’re paying slightly more than he’s been worth, is fanboy territory.
You must think pragmatists are the same as evangelists.
by Wreckard on Oct 16, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lets hope...
..that Hendry and his crew were smart enouph to know what they were getting in Soriano. I will assume they did and chalk up the type of contract they gave him to management wanting to make a splash, as opposed to making the best baseball move.
With that said, I thought all along they would bat him in the middle of the order regardless of what they told the media, they just wanted to take time to break Soriano into the idea, but it didn’t workout that way.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 17, 2008 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry to nitpick...
but it’s been driving me crazy. it’s “enouGh”, not “enouPh.” I apologize. I definitely don’t want to be the grammar police.
As for the content, I agree on your hypothesis on why the Cubs paid so much. They needed the big splash early in the offseason to get the ball rolling, after a few consecutive summers of missing on their free agent targets. They missed on Beltran and they missed on Furcal, and they couldn’t afford to miss again after the 2006 season.
I don’t know if they ever actually intended on moving him from the leadoff spot, though. They had Lee and Ramirez for the middle of the order, and they really didn’t have anybody else to lead off.
by SouthernCub on Oct 17, 2008 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add this...
…if they didn’t anticipate Soriano’s streakiiness would not create a problem hitting in front of your best hitters, they were very short sighted.
With that said, it appears they did realize it after the 07 playoff loss, because they did make a play for Roberts.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 18, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you really MUST have a new shortstop than divert your attention to Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera has issues of his own. But if we MUST invest in a new shortstop and it MUST come via free agency then I’ll take Orlando Cabrera. He’ll cost less and doesn’t have the injury concern that the overrated Rafael Furcal has.
If you are asking me do I want to add Cabrera? Then the answer is no.
If you are asking me who I prefer, Cabrera or Furcal? Then the answer is Cabrera.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it HAS to be a free agent...
I think it’s just easier to speculate on free agents than it is to come up with reasonable trade possibilities.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Orlando Cabrera? Are you serious?
You do realize that Cabrera essentially hit the same as Ronny Cedeno in 2008, with poorer defense in a park where Marge Schott could have hit a HR?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 16, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention his questionable character.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought we agreed not to mention that.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the question to answer is: Should Soriano Leadoff
If the answer is no, then the Cubs have to go outside the organization to find that leadoff hitter. The reason being that Lou and Co are more apt to move Soriano back (they have done this before) to the leadoff spot if he struggles in his new spot or the internal replacement struggles. If the cubs acquire either through free agency or a trade a legit leadoff hitter, it forces Soriano to come to grips with his new spot in the lineup.
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think most agree that looking for a new leadoff man is a good idea...
the problem is that I don’t think Furcal fixes the problems that Soriano presents as a leadoff man.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For all those people...
who think David Ortiz is good…
.235 in LAA series, .071 in TB series. 0 HR.
I just don’t feel small playoff sample sizes justify want for a specific player.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 16, 2008 12:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree that small sample sizes are a bad measure...
it’s the regular season track record of streakiness and not-that-great OBP, as well as the back problems at a very physically demanding position and the fact that he’s 31 and his primary attribute is his speed that make me want Furcal less.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Didn’t mean that to necessarily vouch for a Furcal signing…but the post condemned him for one game.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 16, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
I’m sure we could find really awful games for any number of really great players.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furthermore...
I think Cubs fans might get a little carried away dissecting all the playoff numbers from every potential acquisition given the recent playoff failures.
Fact is, there are few proven commodities for the playoffs. Albeit struggling through injuries, even the best playoff pitcher of the current era has had a rough postseason. Playoff sample sizes can most likely form a negative argument against anybody not named Manny Ramirez.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 16, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Case in point: Barry Bonds...
Prior to his 2002 season, conventional wisdom was that Bonds was a terrible “clutch” player because he had struggled mightily in his previous post-season experience. What did he do in 2002? Just the following: 17 games, .356/.597/.978 (1.575 OPS!), 8 HR, 16 RBI, 18 R).
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate to do this...
I agree with your point, but I’m sure there are other players that could be cited. Barry had 5 different post seasons before 2002; 90, 91, 92, 97, and 2000, plus the play in game in 1998.
It’s hard to compare Barry’s production pre 1998 to his production post. He was a great player pre, but became the devastating power threat after.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Oct 16, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I see your point...
I think the example is perfectly relevant.
Bonds had had MANY seasons of .600 SLG prior to 1998 (over .600 in 1992, 1993, 1994, and 1996; over .570 in 1995 and 1997). And he was over .600 in SLG in 1998-2000 as well, including .600 SLG in 2000. Sure, he wasn’t as dominant as he became from 2001-2004 seasons, but he was always a really, really good power hitter and probably the best overall hitter in the game in the 1990s.
The point was that Bonds’ struggles in the playoffs prior to the 2002 season were highly misleading, as they were a very small sample size. People mistakenly questioned whether Bonds could produce in the postseason. He emphatically proved them wrong in 2002.
Yes, it’s just one example and there are many others I’m sure.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look what Big Papi did in 2004, 2005 and 2007 post-seasons
Then admire the two World Series Championship rings in his collection.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 16, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. Yes he did.
He in fact just restated the point that Kansas25 was making, without the subtlety. Reading is fundamental.
by SouthernCub on Oct 16, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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