Trade Lee and sign Dunn
by sanks on Oct 16, 2008 12:44 PM CDT
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PrintThe Angels and Giants need a first baseman. Lee is from the West Coast. He would waive his no trade for the Angels no doubt. The Cubs lineup is too right handed. Dunn strikes out a ton but he is a really good OBP guy. We need a 40 homer guy and a left handed hitter that other team fear. We would miss his defense no doubt but I feel like his best days are behind him. At only 2 more years his deal isn't as huge as Soriano's.
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Im for it, but its been discussed many times on here already.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Trades have to make sense for both sides in order to go through.
Sure, I would love to send Lee to the Angels and open up first base for a younger and better player, but lets be reasonable. Lee would cost the Angels 13 million annually and give them a slightly-above league average first baseman with decent defense(his glove is not the same). Mark Teixeira, their soon-to-be free agent first baseman, who is a far, far better player than Lee(both with the glove and bat), will cost them about 5-7 million more than Lee. Personally, if I had to choose between Lee for 13 million and Teixeira for 18-20, I would take Tex, and that’s not factoring in the prospects the Angels would have to give up to acquire Lee. In essence, for your Lee-to-Anaheim scenario to go through, the Angels would have to somehow feel that shelling out 13 million for Lee+ a few prospects> signing Teixeira for 20ish while keeping those prospects. I don’t see it.
The Angels would only be interested in Lee if they've already lost out on Teixeira...
The Angels may very well lose Teixeira, but the timing matters. If the Angels are in the running and Teixeira waits until January to sign, Dunn may already be off the market.
The question would be, would the Cubs be willing to sign Dunn as a corner OF before being able to trade Lee?
And that's exactly the problem with any of these plans
Lee can’t really be moved until the options on the free agent market are gone. So we’d have to risk getting stuck with Lee and an extra first baseman (a pretty dubious position to try and trade from) or having no first baseman at all.
The alternative would be...
Sign Dunn first. Try to trade Lee. If you can’t trade Lee, then either play Dunn in RF (not preferable) or move Soriano to RF. The gamble would be that the upgrade in offense would be worth the downgrade in defense.
If you do that, Lee's value goes in the tank. Not the best position to be in.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Not if you announce Dunn as your RF.
Then it’s just Dome’s value that toilets.
Besides, Lee could be moved to any team that plans not to be able to afford Teix. Even as we write this, either the Angels or the Yankees could be deciding to focus their money elsewhere.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
If you sign Dunn, do you think that other teams think he would play RF for
the Cubs? I wouldn’t.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Why wouldn't you?
He’s played mostly OF throughout his career. Moreover, you could pronounce him the LF and state that Soriano is moving to RF.
There are in fact ways that signing Dunn doesn’t kill Lee’s value.
That's a pretty big gamble. You want to maximize the value of your
assets with as little risk as possible. I’m not sure you would be doing that.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Well I think we're going to have to take risks...
or stay put (which is in and of itself a risk). I realize it’s not the ideal situation. But if changes need to be made (that’s a discussion point in itself), then risks are going to HAVE to be taken.
Maybe they should dump Hendry and hire you. I like your attitude.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
At the little press conference
where Adam Dunn tries on his jersey, grins goofily, and talks football with Samardzija, you announce, “In Adam Dunn we have found the LH slugger our lineup needs. We’ll probably play him in RF, but what we know for sure is that he’ll be hitting cleanup and hitting 150 HRs over the course of this contract in Wrigley Field – postseason bombs included!”
Then when someone asks about Dome, you talk about him and Felix Pie being options in CF.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Make sure you pass that on to Hendry. I wouldn't want him
to get it backwards.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions
dont leave out
his 150 to 200 whiffs a year. exactly what we need another guess hitting hack.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
He played some RF for the Snakes after the trade.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
I don't think
no trade clauses are as easily solved as saying:
He would waive his no trade for the Angels no doubt.
And if I were the Angels, I’d try to keep Mark in LA before I went after Lee.
Dan
Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.
They are that easy if he is willing...
and since Lee is from Southern California, started off in the Angels’ organization as a minor leaguer, and LA is a perennial contender, I think the no-trade clause wouldn’t be a big deal there.
The bigger deal is the second part (the Angels wanting to keep Teixeira).
Whoops! Two corrections...
he’s actually from Sacramento (which is not SoCal) and he was in the Padres organization, not the Angels. Man, I bungled that post quite a bit.
Regardless, that would move him closer to home and keep him on a contender. I don’t think that the no-trade clause would be the problem with trading Lee to the Angels.
Lee: 1996 Southern League MVP
with the Memphis Chicks when they were affiiliated with the Padres.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
Trade Lee and sign Dunn is something I endorse predicated on whether Dunn can make a decent transition to full time 1st base duty
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
That's a serious gamble. If it doesn't work out,
you have to move Dunn back to the outfield and get another 1B. You really don’t have a spot for Dunn in the OF now, so you are talking about some serious scrambling.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
We could put Furcal at first.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh no you di'int.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Yes he did. And you could put Dunn at SS.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions
And Soriano back at second!
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
And call it the Roberto Duran memorial infield. (Loaded with hands of stone!)
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
And Harden would pitch every day.
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions
And we could trade Micah Hoffpaiur
for Grady Sizemore!
Moorons, your bus is leaving.
The worst beer I had was pretty good.
I think it's a cheesy lite-rock band.
Mooron 5. Ugh.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
You're wrong again.
He meant MOOPon. It’s the moops.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
It's the moors, you idiot.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Nothin's finer than eatin' in your diner.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Nothin' but mutton.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
"What is she serving for dinner?"
“I don’t know…but I’m sure it had parents.”
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
i understand the reasoning behind dunn
but here is what it will come down to. he will fail horribly in big game situations, then, us as cubs fans will regret ever acquiring him and we will bitch and compare him to sorianos hitting woes when it matters most. what this team needs to do is fill this team with players who are proven in the playoffs. as appealing as his massive OPB sounds, it is not what this team needs to succeed in the playoffs.
"The more i practice, the luckier i seem to get" -Yogi Berra
How many Tampa Bay Rays were "proven" in the playoffs before this season?
I understand what you’re saying, but I’m just not sure how realistic it is.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
First part, fine
if it means someone in return like a Matt Cain. But the 2nd part? I’d much rather spend a little more and get Teixeira.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
You'd probably have to spend a LOT more...
I’d love to get Teixeira, but he’s going to be really really expensive. Dunn won’t cost nearly as much.
I highly doubt
the Phil Rogers rumors on Lee for Cain. I can see a Lee for Jon Sanchez led package.
Here’s the thing – I’d rather save a little money and sign, say, Raul Ibanez for 1st (and for less years in all likelihood) than spend big on Dunn. I think Ibanez will get less on the market, and I think Ibanez is a more complete hitter than Dunn that will still offer some pop.
I'm guessin' we might see Prince Fielder for Matt Cain
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
I'm guessing
that the Giants hold onto Matt Cain and maybe make a free agent foray (Dunn/Ibanez, maybe Crede as Sandoval can handle 3rd or 1st potentially.
For the right price...
Ibanez wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It’d have to be a really short-term deal, though, as he’s 36.
But the .290/.350/.480+ numbers he’s put up in the expansive Seattle park the past few years don’t look too bad.
This is assuming that he could come substantially cheaper than Lee’s pricetag, though, and for no more than 2 years.
Me personally
I’d be fine with 3 years for Ibanez. Market price guess would be 3/24-3/30 on Ibanez. Just a guess. I think Dunn is going to be shooting for at least 4/48 if not more, and I have absolutely no interest, none at all, in that, but that’s Hendry’s decision.
Hasn't Ibanez been mostly a DH with a smattering of time in left field?
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
The opposite, actually...
he’s been a mostly a LF with a smattering of time at DH. He’s not a complete stranger to 1B, either. He played ~15-20 games a year there from 1998-2004, with the exception of 2002 in which he played nearly 50 games at 1B. Moreover, if we’re discussing the idea playing Dunn at 1B, I can’t imagine that Ibanez is much worse.
Anyone with a scouting report of Ibanez at 1B
because I’m thinking this option is entirely likely.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
No idea...
other than the stats on Baseball-Reference, for whatever they’re worth. I’d suspect he’d be as good or better than Dunn at 1B, but almost certainly worse than Lee there. But that is 100% speculation with virtually 0% evidence.
I don't think that Ibañez has ever played in the NL,
so you would have to factor in a bit of a learning curve. Also, his defense in the OF might be worse than Dunn’s.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
Scott Boras has said bidding for Mark Texiera starts at $175 million...
Plus Texiera grew up in Maryland a huge Orioles fan and has said many times over the years that it is his dream to play for Baltimore someday. I’m guessing it comes down to a bidding war between the Yankees and Orioles with the Angels taking a pass.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
Scott Boras says a lot of things
He also said the bidding for A-Rod would start at 12 years and involved ownership equity, that the 07 Cardinals missed the playoffs because they didn’t sign Jeff Weaver, and that Mariano Rivera is to blame for A-Rod’s poor postseason perception.
Nothing like...
…starting with the bar high, huh?
Someone will probably give him 6-7 years at an average of 20 mil or so, which would be about 130-140 mil. I don’t see the Cubs being involved in this, at all.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
No.
Like it or not, Derrick Lee is the keystone of this team. He is the only one who has a semblance of leadership in that clubhouse. He is the only one besides DeRosa who has a bat come playoff time— .333 last year and .545 this year (lest we forget that the bats against the D’Backs were even more anemic than against the Dodgers— .194 and .240 respectively.)
Defensively he is much better than ‘slightly above the league average.’ Fielding stats for a 1st basemen can be extremely misleading, if for no other reason than the first basemen’s play is dictated by other defenders play. You don’t have to watch many Cubs games to know that Derrick Lee makes Ramirez, Theriot, and just about every other infielder who skips a throw across the diamond much much better. He saves our ass all the time. That is indisputable.
Now to Dunn: His lifetime .opb, .481 is .14 higher than Lee’s .467. His life time average is .241. Is this our guy? Because he can hit the ball a ton from the left side of the plate…occasionally? He was a minus gain for the D’backs. Sure, he won them a few games, but so did Ronnie Cedeno win a few for us. He sure as hell didn’t do anything to keep the D’Backs from their cataclysmic slide. Besides, .OPB is not our issue…at least not this year. We had men on the base paths all year. Yes, I know, ’well, Lee hit into so many double plays…" This is true, he rolled over on too many pitches, but this is not a result of a defective swing. His issues are more about mechanics and adjustments. He knows that and he is good enough to fix that.
Furthermore, how do you think this guy is going to transition to 1b? Do you remember that game against the Cubs two years back when Dunn whiffed on several routine flyballs? It was actually extremely funny and entertaining because each time another routine fly ball was hit out there, you were thinking, ‘oh no, he can’t do it again….oh my god he did it again.’ He made Brandt Brown look like Ichiro.
He’s overweight, has no range, and he has to manage an infield that is less than average defensively. Most importantly, I think it is only proper to look at Dunn in the correct context. He has only played for a crappy team, notwithstanding his last ten weeks with the D’Backs. Not only were the Reds crappy, but they at times were awful. For someone like Dunn, a power hitter, this type of scenario where you are constantly behind and without the stress of contention had to inflate his numbers. How many of his home runs do you think were hit when the games were out of reach? How many times has Dunn, due to the futility of the Reds, faced pitchers like an ’08 Lieber or a A. Guzman just because managers were trying to get pitchers some work with a big lead?
We all agree we need a bat from the left side. Why not go after Ibanez or Crawford? Leave our home run hitting to Ramirez, Soto, and Soriano.
Derrick Lee is not the problem, nor is he expendable at this point.
Raul Ibanez is probably the guy very seriously on Hendry's list
Cubs aren’t going to trade Derrek Lee despite my preference for them to do so.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
hwo about this
make a whole fanpost about what you want for this offseason. I’d sure love to read it. you dont like anything and you know it all. so please lets hear it.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
I too agree
that Lee is not the issue with this team. This team needs players to perform in the playoffs. Is there a carbon copy for that? Who in the hell knows. Adding Dunn to this team will not make it better.
Tell me Adam Dunn on this team and Lee gone, The Cubs win more than 97 games and not get swept in the playoffs?
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
One more thing.
The cubs are in a perfect postition to make an in house transition in two years with Hoffpauir. If we don’t want Lee’s services in two years, we keep grooming Hoffpauir and thus are afforded the luxury of spending our money elsewhere.
I don't see the Cubs grooming Hoff to take
over for Lee. He’s an OK bat, but he’s never going to develop into an everyday 1B. A DH maybe, but I just don’t see him playing everyday in a NL lineup.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, if Hoffpauir is DLee's replacement...
…I see dark times ahead for the first base position of the Chicago Cubs.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Those dark times will last
3 weeks. The half-life on Hoffpauir’s ML career has already been passed.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I see dark times for the players in the dougout, the fans behind first and
the opposing first base coach.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
And I'm going to assume that...
…by “dark” you mean “unconscious and suffering from a mild concussion.”
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
In-house transition
in 2011 would be Ramirez to 1B, Vitters at 3B.
We aren’t grooming Hoffpauir for anything but minor trade bait for American League clubs
by IllinoisCubs on Oct 16, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions
A Dunn-Lee Situation
I wouldn’t mind if Dunn joined the Cubs. He’d be like a new version of King Kong. However, I can’t see any trade of D-Lee happening. I doubt the Cubs would get much for him and would have to eat a lot of his contract. Unless a big multi-player deal opens up, D-Lee will be in a Cubs uniform next season, and I think his numbers will rebound somewhat from this last sorta-miserable season.
I agree the Cubs need a lefty power bat,
but I’m not ready to give up Lee’s defense.
James Loney, seriously?
If you could replace Lee...
…in the lineup with Dunn, I would be all for it, as long as you don’t completely screw up the defense.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
You would, IMHO...
No way around that, if you are swapping Lee for Dunn…
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Let's throw this out there.
I know trading Soriano is much, much harder than trading Lee. But let’s pretend for a second that it would be possible when Manny’s contract demands float around to teams looking for a RH-slugger and uncomfortable with Pat Burrell, given what happened to him the last time he signed a big contract.
Adam Dunn is looking for 5 years, is 28, left-handed and has a career line of .247/.381/.518.
Alfonso Soriano has 6 years to go on the contract, is 32 and has a career line of .282/.329/.518.
Once you set aside that AVG, Dunn is a clear upgrade over Soriano, especially for our lineup. Put the AVG-contact problem back in, but consider that he’d be hitting ahead of Ramirez who does make contact and Dunn looks perfect for our lineup.
So, how much of Soriano’s contract would you be willing to eat in a straight dump so we can keep Lee and swap Dunn for Soriano?
I’ve been emailing a friend of mine who is a smart Braves fan and his last “offer” was Kelly Johnson for Soriano if we paid 8 mill of Sori’s contract a year. Would anyone do that?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
no
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Dear god no
Assuming Dunn gets $15-20M a year, which he should, you’re basically paying $23-28M a year for him (since you’re incurring another $8M a year just to make room for him) at that point.
That’s crazy money.
And you’d actually be losing in the deal anyway – Soriano is actually worth more per year in terms of wins – 2-3 wins per year more. I’m sure that’s in no small part do to his defense which is, if you can believe it, considerably better than Dunns.
Remember,
we’re getting Kelly Johnson back in this deal, who’s cheap himself and a potential option at SS (I’d have to look at why he got moved a few years back). The point is that you can’t load all that $ onto Dunn.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
He was an outfield who had tommy john surgery.
They moved him to 2nd because they had an opening when they non-tendered Marcus Giles. The braves gambled they could get the same or better production from Johnson as they got with Giles for the MLB minimum. The gamble paid but I wouldn’t make the leap that Johnson could play SS.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
He was a SS before he was an OF.
He was moved from SS, I thought, because the Braves had Furcal.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
He was a SS in the low minors.
He was moved because:
1. Tony Peña was the better defensive SS
2. The Braves believed that KJ’s bat would play in the OF at the ML level, and they were short of OF prospects.
He did make the Braves as an OF in 2005, and had a pretty decent year (.731 OPS). He had TJ surgery and missed all of 2006, then was moved to 2B when Giles left and the Braves realized that he wasn’t developing COF power.
Could he play SS for the Cubs? Probably as well as Riot, but not as well as DeRo. I don’t think he’ll ever have a LF bat, and he struggled mightily at the beginning of 2008 in the leadoff spot. He hits better at the bottom of the order — not a ringing endorsement for a potential LF.
OTOH, if the Cubs decided to trade DeRo, he would be a LHB 2B replacement, though not as a leadoff man or power hitter.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
If money was no object...
…yes, I would pay 8 mil a year to replace Soriano with Dunn. The problem is, I doubt Hendry is going to be allowed to do that.
If I owned the club and this was presented to me, I would immediatley ask WTF did you sign the guy to the contract, and now you want to eat 50 mil of it over the next 6 years? I know Zell has been hands off, but running something like this by him may blow the lid off the guy.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
There is no chance that the Cubs will take on $50 million of Soriano's contract...
just to dump him. It’s not going to happen, for exactly the reasons you’ve stated as well as the fact that there almost certainly IS a payroll limit, and paying $8 million a year to NOT have a player for six years is not a good idea.
Agree...
…If Hendry wants to do something like this, he better wait until after he signs his extension.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Whoever approves that deal better sign it under an alias.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 16, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Definitely would be bad business.
While some fans view the Cubs through a fantasy baseball perspective, it is important to remember they are owned by a publicly traded corporation and are beholden to the shareholders to make a profit. Eating tens of millions of a contract of a productive player does not make good business sense.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 16, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree 100%, but it also makes one wonder what's gonna happen when we are paying Soriano's salary and he's totally done
probably the last 3-4 years?
I don't think he'll be "totaly done" during the contract...
I think he’ll still be hitting for upper-tier power. I suspect the speed will be gone, but he’ll still be a power threat.
We will almost certainly be overpaying for the down years in Soriano’s career. That’s a given. It’s just a matter of how fast or slow his decline phase will be. But I don’t think we’ll be paying for a guy that you can’t put on the field.
I'm not so sure...
…on this one. Soriano relies heavily on pure reflexes to produce his power numbers and as he ages, those reflexes will diminish (they already are to a degree). His swing is long and needs to be started early to generate power, and the more his reflexes slow, the sooner he will need to start his swing – which means swinging at even more 59 footers.
I could see him really starting to decline in the next 2-3 years, which would mean the last 3 years of his deal could be real ugly. Of course, I could be completely wrong and he stays at his current pace for another 4-5 years, but I doubt that very much.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I guess we'll just have to see...
One thing I think we can agree on is that we’re going to have the opportunity to find out (for good or for bad), because he’s going to be a Cub for at least the next 3-4 years.
We'll be overpaying for sure...
but given how much the market keeps inflating, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as people think.
Free Ronny Cedeno
I wouldn't bet...
…on these salaries maintaining the rise they have seen in the last 10 years. They have to correct at some point, and I would think this economy is going to have a least some impact on this evenutally.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Soriano for Dunn?>
You’d get a guy who hits about the same homeruns and BA or maybe a little better strikes out even more and is the only guy who’s a worse defensive outfielder?
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
by puckishcubsfan on Oct 17, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
As I said elsewhere...
I don’t think the Braves will be on the market for a high-priced aging OF. Especially not one with that many years left. It’s not the way they have historically done business. I suspect they’ll look to fill their LF spot on the cheap somewhere. And I can’t imagine them trading a cheap and productive middle-IF. I also don’t think paying close to $50 million just to get rid of Soriano makes sense for the Cubs, either, as I don’t see Johnson as a solution at SS.
Would you trade Soriano for Maicer Izturis
if we had to pay 10 M of Sori’s contract?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Again, I don't think that's really a relevant question...
I admire your interest in finding creative approaches, but I don’t think this is realistic. The Angels already have a lot of expensive OF. If anything, they’ll be looking to clear space out there, not add another big contract.
Would I trade Soriano + $10 million for Maicer Izturis? I don’t know. We’d need to find a leadoff hitter and a power bat to replace the loss, because Izturis doesn’t address either of those needs at all.
But since it’s not a realistic possibility, it doesn’t really matter. However, I would think we could probably get Izturis in a different fashion.
No way this is realistic, simply because Soriano wouldn't waive his NTC for a trade that looks like a dump job.
I’m asking this more to see how many Cub fans would dump him for a bit player at this point.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Given that it's purely hypothetical...
I don’t think I’d do that. I think Soriano is still very useful, just perhaps as a #5 or #6 hitter and not a #1 hitter.
I would also be interested in pushing the idea that he may need to learn RF (in the event that getting a LH power hitter in LF is the right approach.
I think trading him creates one new problem (power bat) and further exacerbates a second problem (lack of a consistent leadoff man).
No thanks...
"There is not a better offense in America. Missouri has had 48 possessions and scored on 33 of them. The nation's No. 1 scoring offense has punted just five times and has yet to go three-and-out." Tom Dienhart, Rivals.com
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Oct 16, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
w00t!
OMGZ YES!!
Dunn hits like 40 HRs a year! He is awesome on my fantasy team!
I have Soriano and Dunn on both of my teams and I beat the other guy in the championship this year and he had Lee as his starting 1B! It’s a signz!
Who needs defense or worries about team chemistry?!
Well, ya had me to a certain extent until the team chemistry thing.
If the Cubs did acquire Dunn, I’m sure the guys would find a way to play together – they did with Edmonds, after all. The risk to the defensive would definitely be huge – especially if Dunn played first base regularly.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
I am all for signing Dunn as long as he stands on First Base
before the 1st Pitch of every home game and does the Truffle Shuffle to the Visitors Dugout. You think I can get Hendry to put that in his contract.
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Oct 16, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
It's amazing to me that Lee struggles some in one year...
and almost everybody wants to replace him. I’m no psychic, but feel comfortable stating that Lee isn’t going anywhere, and Dunn will not be signed. Dunn is a career ending injury waiting to happen. I don’t care how many homers he hits, he’s a butcher on defense, and strikes out a ton. I don’t see how making the Cubs over into a boom or bust team, with HR hitters, and little less, will possibly be successful.
Jimmyeatworld
"Struggles some?"
Actually, he struggled a ton this year, and it’s not as if he’s getting any younger. When it comes to first basemen and three hole hitters, power is king. Here are Lee’s monthly slugging percentages from this past season: .705, .411, .404, .442, .376, .440. The .376 he posted in August is even worse than it looks, as he hit for a .301 average, giving him an unbelievably awful .075 ISO. Thats about as much power as Theriot has. For the season, he had a .172 ISO, good for nineteenth among qualifying first basemen and the worst in our division.
I wouldn’t label Dunn a boom or bust player. He has shown the ability to hit for a decent average, posting three different BA’s in the .260’s. Also, in 217 AB’s at Wrigley, he posted a ridiculous .286/.419/.664 line. He does strike out a ton, but it’s not as if Lee never goes down swinging. He had 119 this year, Dunn had 164. He more than makes up for those with his annual 100+ walks.
I respect your opinion on this and think you're likely right; I will take issue with one comment, though.
In my view, Dunn’s less a boom/bust player than Soriano because Dunn takes his walks. If you’ve got a man on 2nd and one out with Sori at the plate, it’s either boom or bust. Same situation with Dunn at the plate and it’s boom, bust, OR a walk. That approach wouldn’t work for some teams, but if you bat that in front of Aramis Ramirez, it works very well, I think.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I believe the tem you are looking for
is “three true outcomes.”
soriano another hendry disaster
This deal is easily the worst in Cubs history. Worse than Sosa, Rojas, Danny Jackson, Todd Hundley it sucks. We will have a lousy defender that strikes out a ton with little speed and doesn’t walk. Way to go! At least Dunn walks!
Actually, Alfonso posted a respectable walk rate this year.
His OBP wasn’t all that bad. .344 is above average, and while that might not be good enough for a leadoff hitter, it isn’t so bad that he should be called the worst signing in history.
OBP not BA matters
We need guys that walk even if they strike out. No more no walk guys. That until this year was the Cubs forever. Think Dunston!
Ding ding
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
Chicago Cubs Humor, News and Parody at The Cubs Brickyard
by Brett Taylor on Oct 17, 2008 6:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Who would have thought
Who would have thought Cub fans would develop all this hate for Lee?
When we see all this ridiculous crap like get Dunn for 1st base or even stupider MICAH FREAKING HOFFPAUIR?
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
Cub fans are becoming smarter about blind loyalty and are looking more objectively
Derrek Lee is a good ballplayer. But he is also an overrated ballplayer who milked his career year in 2005 for all it’s worth. It is my belief that Lee is in decline phase and his production will lessen moving forward. If there was a way for him to bat 6th or 7th in the lineup or to play 120 games a season then I’m fine with that.
Yeah, I’d like to see Lee moved this winter in deference to a left-handed hitting run producer be acquired at 1st base. Will it happen? No. Hendry won’t move Lee in my estimation. Hendry lives in denial on certain players and refuses to use objective analysis. It is his one great blind spot as a GM.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
Your observations about Cub fans is accurate, but
your description of Derek Lee is heavy with personal feelings, not fact. While I agree that Lee has had a definite decline in performance since his ’05 season, your description of him “milking his career year” is over the top.
Fans tend to get upset and even downright angry at a player for not performing up to their standards and this seems to be the case with Lee. His current contract reflects his past performance and while you may be resentful that he had a bad year, the fact is, the Cubs decided to pay him his current salary. He didn’t demand a fat contract based on ’05 and to suggest that he is “milking” anything is inaccurate.
He’s not a 6th or 7th place hitter. His performance this year was not representative of a 3, but he was a .300 hitter for most of the year. He is still a run producer and could just as easily return to previous form next year. While I agree that his best years are behind him, he still can be productive. Based on his performance in the playoffs, I certainly don’t believe that he deserves the amount of venom that has been directed his way by many of the posters to this site.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Lee isn't a number three hitter anymore.
A team needs to have it’s best power hitter/run producer in the three hole, and Lee isn’t even in top three on our team at either of those things. Ninety RBI are nice, but Lou could have put Theriot in the three hole and he would have scraped up 75 RBI. At this point in his career, Lee hits way too many groundballs and too few XBH’s to hit in the biggest run producing spot in the order. Aramis, who should have been in the three hole this year, hit’s more line drives and fly balls than Lee and is much less likely to GIDP. Lee is useful and has a spot in our lineup, but is not the three hole. Theriot and Soriano got on base at all-time high clips this year and it’s too bad they were followed up by Lee, who should have been hitting five. Lee’s numbers have been trending downwards for a couple of years now. Thats not me hating on Lee. It’s just being objective.
I think we were basically stating the same thing. I do believe that this team
is too RH dominant and is sorely in need of some LH balance. If you look at the RH run-producing players, Lee is probably the most logical choice to be moved in order to obtain a solid LH power bat. There are very few untouchables on this team, but some of the contracts on this team are trade prohibitive. However, I believe that the blame that has been directed at DLee is unwarranted.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
+1
With BlueMike, it’s always personal. Somebody help me out here — hadn’t DLee already signed his long-term deal in ’05? If so, how was he “milking” that year? What was he “milking” it for? The right to get injured in ’06?
I think the reason many of us are open to trading DLee – as sad as it would be to see him go – is because he still has value. And, for me personally, it wasn’t so much his lack of hitting that bothered me this season – or even the GIDPs – it was the lack of power.
If DLee stays, which is entirely possible, I can live with it and hope for the best. But I also completely understand the urge to trade him for a needed upgrade should the right deal arise.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
He signed his big contract extension in April 2006...
After the big year. I wouldn’t say he milked the big year, though. 2006 was the last year of his contract, and so he signed a deal for arguably below-market value (given his 2005 season) or maybe a tad above market value (based on his career).
Who knows how much the injury has affected him since. He’s still not old, so time will tell if he rebounds or is in full-fledged decline. But in either case, MDBNIU is overstating the case against Lee.
by SouthernCub on Oct 17, 2008 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Ah, OK. I stand corrected.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
It isn't Lee's fault that it didn't work out.
No one thought that Lee was going to break his wrist and become an easily fooled slap hitter. When the Cubs gave Lee the big contract, they reasonably believed that Lee was going to be an elite run producer. He is not, and it’s reasonable to assume that he never will be.
The reason that people focus on a change at 1B in order to improve the offense is because there are so many great offensive 1B in the league, and many of them are available. It’s trickier to improve at SS or CF, obviously.
The time to move Lee was probably prior to this year. And while his value decreased as his career numbers (especially his power) continued to slip, he simultaneously becomes more tradeable as the total remaining value of the contract decreases.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Don't confuse a desire...
…to put the best team on the field with hate. I think that is a bit extreme.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Yeah, but there are at least four positions...
…which it would be more productive to upgrade from next season and only eight positions over all. We have a mediocre shortstop, are completely missing a CFer, have a giant question mark in right field… and we want to worry about employing an average first baseman? The hell.
Oh, I agree...
…my point is this, the focus should always be on the team and not on which player is traded or not traded. Some times you have to deal something of value to get something of value, in order to make the team better. I would love to see them address all areas which could be upgraded, but you also have to play along with the team your trying to trade with.
If it were me, I would like to keep Lee, as long as we get a leadoff hitter and a lefty power bat.
Here is something that hasn’t really been addressed, will Hendry look at improvements from a lineup prospective or a position prospective? If he goes on a position perspective, to get the best fit could mean still having to assemble a lineup with holes. If he goes with the lineup perspective, he may have to force those guys into positions that may not give you the best defense.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
First base is an offense-first position.
If you’re looking to improve an offense, it’s a lot easier to bring in a 1B than it is to find a great offensive shortstop or center fielder.
This is why I still curse McPhail for telling Hendry to let Beltran go to the Mets. He wanted to run the Cubs as if they were a small market team.
Instead, we got Alfonso Soriano, who is worse than Carlos Beltran in every facet of the game. And he can’t play CF. And he’s older. And we signed him 2 years later, and for 2 extra seasons. The Mets’ big deal with Beltran ends when he’s 34. Our deal with Soriano ends when he’s 38.
That was poor resource allocation, and it used to be the Cubs’ MO. Pass on the difference makers, and give every middle reliever and backup infielder 3 and 4 million dollar salaries each year.
Of course, that’s water under the bridge. They have to look forward.
At at this point, moving Lee, and heavily investing in an elite 1B, is the best use of this team’s resources. I can’t see any other course of action that could provide the same fundamental improvement of the offense.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I wouldn't say it's the only course. Other than Soriano, the contracts
on this team are not out of line with the rest of the league. If you could find a taker for the other players on the team, the contracts should not be a deal-breaker.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think you're even remotely correct.
Let’s measure offense in runs, and let’s completely ignore defense for a minute. I have Lee projected at +14 runs next year, or that is to say 14 runs above the average hitter (not based on position.) Compared that to, say, Teixera, at +21. So to move from Lee to Teixera is about 7 runs, or roughly .5 marginal wins.
Compare to Ryan Theriot, at -9 RAA (projected). In order to improve by seven runs on offense, you only need to go out and get… Christian Guzman.
It costs a lot more to upgrade from good to great than it costs to upgrade from mediocre to good.
Your Lee projection is substantially rosier than mine.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Well, he was a +4 this year.
I just don’t see Lee bouncing back to a +14 RCAA under any circumstances.
I don’t think that his 2008 woes were the result of bad hops or bad luck – I think that it was a systemic problem, and the start of an expected fade from a 32 year old ballplayer. The guy simply didn’t hit anything hard from June on.
I’m trying not to be too depressing in this thread, but Lee’s 2008 campaign was woeful by any standard — and if you consider only June-September, it was just pitiful.
And wasn’t Teixiera almost double that in RCAA in 2008? He was a +19 with the Braves alone!
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I have Lee at +9 RAA in my LWTS system.
Just so’s as we’re clear:
Here’s my player values for offense in 2008.
Here are my player projections for 2009.
Don’t know exactly how to explain the discrepancy between Runs Created and linear weights here – I do know that RC tends to undervalue the walk significantly, depending on which version is used. (Of course, I don’t know where you get your RCAA numbers from either.) To be quite frank – I have a laundry list of issues with Runs Created Above Average, mostly its use of Runs Created and its lack of a theoretical team construct.
As for Teixera, I wouldn’t call it a career year, exactly, but he’ll be hard pressed to hit quite that well next year; I have him projected at .299/.402/.539, certainly not shabby. He was also remarkably healthy this year, playing in 157 games. He missed playing time in 2007 due to a pulled quad, and that’s showing up in his playing time projection.
Then following that line of reasoning...
Would it be better (in terms of “cost of player in $ and/or prospects” vs. RAA/OPS/other stat) to:
1. Try to find a CF (preferably LHB with power), leaving Dome in RF (praying that he will change his swing this winter) to start the year with the possibility of a July trade; or
2. Try to find a RF (preferably LHB with power), leaving Dome to fight with Pie/RJ/? for ABs in CF; or
3. Try to find a productive 2B (preferably LHB with power), moving DeRo to RF.
Part of the problem is that it is difficult to make a trade with so few Type A prospects on the farm, which puts more pressure on the team to sign a FA. That is usually when GMs make a Pavano-sized mistake.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
When
When people want to get Dunn or HOFFPAUIR to replace him it’s not wanting to improve the team.
What’s funny is people so anxious to get rid of Soriano and they want Dunn who is the same player who is even worse on defense and has no speed.
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
by puckishcubsfan on Oct 17, 2008 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Dunn is not the same player as Soriano
Dunn is younger, looking for a smaller contract than what is left on Sori’s now, and get’s on base a ton more than Soriano. Soriano, on the other hand, plays better defense and steals bases more (when he can). If Soriano’s legs continue to deteriorate, he has nothing on Dunn. And did I mention that he’s quite a bit older than Dunn?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Wanting to upgrade
Wanting to upgrade the team is not hate. I love DLee (in a manly way) as much as the next Cubs fan, but there comes a time with every player when the organization needs to cut bait and move on. Now I haven’t quite decided whether, in DLee’s case, that time is now. But it’s getting damn close.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Since when
Reasonable suggestions are one thing but when people are suggesting HOFFPAUIR!
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
by puckishcubsfan on Oct 17, 2008 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions
(And capitalizing Hoffpauir all the time, for some reason.)
I mean, I can understand a reasoned argument that Lee is fading but people are suggesting REPLACING HIM WITH JOSE MACIAS!? COME ON!
Hoff is going to be great (and cheap) in the Daryl Ward Memorial Big Bench Bat role next year.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I don't understand you at all.
You aren’t even trying to advance an argument – rather, you’re just continuously ignoring reality and repeating the same incorrect opinion.
No one hates Lee. Everyone loves him. But objective viewers know that he’s approaching the end of the line at breakneck speed, and that his abject lack of power is holding the team back.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
You're not alone, my friend.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
I disagree about Lee
I do not think he’s approaching the end of the line at breakneck speed. Derrek Lee is in good shape and is a smart player. Players have bad years. I’m expecting a Lee bounceback.
And how in the world can you say his lack of power is holding the team back? The Cubs won the pennant easily and Lee is one of the few players to produce in the playoffs. Lee is not holding them back at all.
I’ve advocated looking at Lee trades only because I think we can get something good back for Lee in the current 1B market.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Well, first, the Cubs did not win the pennant.
And Lee had a few hits in the playoffs, yes. But he failed in every big spot in Games 1 and 2. And he doesn’t hit for power.
I think that Lee is approaching the end of the line because his decline wasn’t the result of bad luck – it was the result of his inability to adjust to the league over the last 4 months of the season. He completely stopped going the other way with outside pitches, and lost the ability to drive anything. When a veteran can’t make an adjustment, either for physical or mental reasons, there’s a problem.
If he’s moved now, we could get some serious salary relief for 09 and 10, allowing us to be players in the Teix sweepstakes. And, we could get some prospects in return. If we hold on to him, we just get to watch his decline continue, and then have to take whoever we can get at 1B for 2011.
It’s this “let your declining star play out the string” thinking that caused us to pass on Vlad Guerrero b/c Sammy still had 2 years left on his deal.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Well, they won the NL Central title by plenty of games
Let’s take a look at some players who have bum years and go on to do pretty well after those bum years.
Magglio Ordonez 2006, age 32 – he had his worst year since he was 24 and came back in 2007 to have his best year.
Carlos Delgado 2004, age 32 – he took a huge step back and changed parks in 2005, moving to FL, but neverthess bounced back in 2005 to have one of his three best years.
Frank Thomas 1998, 1999, 2002 – ages 30, 31, 34 – Would have been easy to decide that the Big Hurt was on his way down, except that in 2003 and 2004 he had great years.
Lance Berkman 2007, age 31 – his OBP plunged .035 pts and his SLG over .100 pts from 2006, but we all know how his 2008 went
Jermaine Dye 2007, age 33 – Dye took a huge hit in production, but we know how he did this year
Manny Ramirez 2007, age 35 – with only 20 HRs, he was done as a power hitter; how’d he do this year, did anyone hear?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
NO, NO, NO
To Dunn. I don’t mind the 200 K’s, look at Ryan Howard, but Dunn does not drive in runs. How can a guy hit 40 homers every year and barely crack the 100 RBI total?. I will tell you how and that is he sucks with guys on base. Look at this stats and you will see that like 56% of his homers are solo shots. This is not the type of guy we need.
I would rather sign Milton Bradley to a 3 year deal and put up with his crap. At least he is good in the clutch and he’s a swithc hitter.
by CubFaninStLouis on Oct 17, 2008 9:42 AM CDT reply actions
Have you even looked at dunn's numbers?
Over his entire career, he is not that much different w/ runners on than runners off. He hits for more power with the bases clear, but gets on base at a much higher clip with guys on. His best numbers have come with the bases juiced. He struggles a bit with two outs and RISP, but with runners on he is still productive. He gets walked a lot which keeps his RBI totals relatively low. Plus, he has never exactly hit behind OB machines.
It makes perfect...
…sense that his power numbers are better with the bases clear, because pitchers are more prone to give him something to hit. With guys on and the threat of a 3 run homer, you can see pitchers get cautious and his patients shows in how many times he is walked with men on base.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Does he suck with guys on base...
…or did his former team suck at putting guys on base?
I’ll hang up and listen to your response.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
How does someone hit 40 HRs and not get the RBIs?
Just ask Derrek Lee. The answer is Dusty Baker is your manager and he bats Corey Patterson leadoff.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
It's just wrong...
…the way folks are selling Lee down the river. He’s not the problem folks, no matter what kind of dip in numbers he had this year. It is so ironic to me that the guy who hit .545 on a team that collectively hit .240 in the playoffs is the one we need to get rid of. (Lest we forget the double he laced off of K. Wood to seal the deal against us in ’03) We all agree that when it comes to producing offensively in the playoffs we suck. Lee, consistently and often in bleak situations, performed, excelled and did his best to lead a pathetic bunch of bats.
CF, 2B and RF afford us the best upgrades. We can fulfill our needs with left hand bats by pursuing Roberts, Ibanez, Crawford, etc.
If there is one person who is the problem…his name is Alfonso Soriano. We can’t move Soriano… we are stuck with a nice guy who hits lead off homeruns, has a nice defensive arms, and who still hasn’t realized that a slider ten inches off the plate is a ball. Is this why Lee is being vilified?
Is Lee the reason the Cubs lost...
…absolutely not, but he may be (along with Ramirez and DeRosa) your best trading chip to improve the club.
There is no question he is probably over his 3 hitter days, but he is still a good player.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Right.
I’m definitely not trying to villify DLee, but if he can get the team something of value, I don’t think a trade should be out of the question.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
+1
Whataever it takes to balance out this lineup should br considered. As far as I am concerned, Geo is probably the only untouchable on this team. If trading the other pieces advances the team, so be it.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Look at Boston, for instance.
In the last 5 years, they traded Nomar and Manny. They let Pedro walk, let Game Five Hero Dave Roberts walk, let Johnny Damon walk, and I presume that they’re gearing up to trade Papi, too.
Every one of those moves were smart – and in each case, the team took major steps and made major investments in difference-making stars to replace the departing hero.
Can you imagine Hendry, as Boston’s GM, having the wherewithal to move a Nomah? Or a Manny? Or letting beloved players like Damon and Pedro walk?
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Soriano is definitely the bigger problem.
He’s also completely, and totally, unmoveable. He’s stuck here for at least 3-4 more years, whether we like it or not. At this point, he is so galactically overpaid, and has so many years remaining on his deal, that even the Cubs couldn’t afford to pay a portion of his salary in a dump deal.
Lee, on the other hand, IS moveable. And his problems last year weren’t “a down year”, or luck. He is getting older, and losing his bat speed, and more importantly, his batting eye. He cannot identify breaking pitches, and as such, is consistently waving at sliders away - and getting fooled by fastballs in that he used to destroy. How many times did we see Lee stare at a meatball fastball his year? He’s lost his eye, and he’s losing his confidence.
This fading batting eye, of course, ensures that he gets a constant diet of sliders away.
And when he does make contact, it’s typically when he thinks he sees a fastball, and tries to pull a mistake breaking pitch that stays in the zone, but is moving away from him. He pounds it into the ground, and Theriot gets forced out at second on the twin-kill.
Soriano, for all his faults, is able to kill mistake pitches. Lee is lucky to slap it back through the box for a single. He doesn’t even have “doubles power” anymore – he has Mark Gracian singles power.
For a first baseman making 13M/year, that is a gigantic problem.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I think your report of his demise may be a bit premature. If he had
performed this way for 3 or 4 years, I would agree. Players have been known to have a bad year and bounce back to previous form. I’m not saying ’05 form, but he could return to a previous level of performance.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I wish that there was an easier explanation.
You may be right, of course.
I wish that there was an easy explanation for the complete lack of power. Like, if his wrist was still bothering him or something.
But what it really looked like was a player who lost just enough of his edge that the league figured out how to get him. They adjusted, Lee knew exactly what they were doing to him, but his eyes just weren’t able to pick up the pitches, and his body just wasn’t quite able to catch up to the fastballs he recognized.
Remember Dale Murphy? The exact same thing happened in his early 30’s. Suddenly, it’s like they hit a threshold and it’s all over.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I'm just saying you might be kind of quick on the dump button. He could
dedicate himself to improving by working harder in the spring to get his mojo back. If he has lost his eye, there’s not much he can do. I’m just not convinced that he is at the end of the road.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
True, but you don't want to give away a guy who has a lot
left in the tank.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 17, 2008 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Realistically, how much can he possibly have left in the tank?
He’s going to be 33 next year. He hasn’t hit for power since his 30-year-old season, and since his wrist injury. His defense is still good, but declining, his speed is largely gone, and last year, he even lost his ability to hit for singles at a decent rate.
There are a bunch of people on this board hoping for a resurgence. Maybe there are also some GMs in the league with high hopes for him. This may be Hendry’s last chance to get something for Lee.
And if he has a year or two of above-average production for some other team, great!
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Lee is not the playoff performer you think he is.
If he was, he would not have a career post-season line of .263/.320/.358. In the playoffs, Lee has been as productive as Ryan Theriot in 2007. I am tired of hearing how some guys step it up in the playoffs. You know who I want up in the playoffs? The best players from the regular season.
Allow me: Sample size.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Oh, I'm fully aware of the sample size issue.
I am just saying that when jesus figeroa says that Lee has always come up bin clutch situations, he’s wrong. He has played well in two out of five situations. I’m not trying to extrapolate from those numbers, so the fact that he only has a small amount of playoff AB’s is irrelevant.
Thats not even close to what I said.
Lee is a better hitter in Theriot. No doubt about it. But his playoff numbers are very similar to Theriot’s in 2007. The post I was I was commenting on said Lee was a solid postseason performer. The numbers say otherwise.
How do you propose that the Cubs should upgrade at 2B?
The only players who played a substantial number of games at 2B, had 502 PAs, and a higher OPS than DeRo were Utley, Kinsler, Uggla, and Pedroia. Of those, only Uggla might be remotely close to available, and we don’t have the prospects that the Marlins will demand.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
I don't buy it.
He had more hits than he did last year and nine less than when he won the batting crown. Sure he was down in average and power, but his numbers don’t necessarily correlate with a decline consistent to the comments in this thread. His problems this year were not as a result of a weakening eye or bat speed. It’s mechanics.
I will agree that he has trade value, but given the fact that this team lacks cohesion, and the little we have comes from Lee’s presence on the team…it is not a good idea.
Ummm, no.
He won the batting crown in 2005, hitting .335, with 199 hits in 594 at-bats. 99 of those hits were for extra bases.
Last year, he had 181 hits in 623 at-bats. 64 were for extra bases. That’s 18 fewer hits, if we’re just considering counting stats. But you and I both know that the rate stats are what matter, and Lee’s stats are down 40-50 across the board from 2007, and his SLG alone is down 200 points from 2005.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
You are absolutely correct. My apologies for sloppy math...
…though it is still a matter of how you want to read his offensive numbers. You are right he slipped this year. The question remains: Do you want to take into account this past year’s sample and make big assumptions from it about his ability moving forward or do you factor in the fact that this might be the exception to the sample in general, i.e. he had an uncharacteristically bad year? I believe it is the later.
Besides, this is one aspect of an extremely impacting player. His fielding average this year was right on his overall average….993. Again, I can’t underestimate how much better he makes our infield better than they really are. Lee wins us many a game with his defense whether it be directly or indirectly.
Lee's numbers don't lie, and if they do, they make him look worse, not better.
Look at his monthly splits. He was a below average offensive first baseman in every month not named April. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5775/splits;ylt=Amdz1nthdPGN0qPWM7084SFCLcF.
It would be something if he showed us a reason to hope he turns things around next year, but anyone that thinks that next year will be different is just hoping blindly. His defense wasn’t as good as usual either. I, and lots of others on this site, haven’t even glanced at fielding percentages in years. They are useless. Check out his zone ratings: He ranked as the seventh best defensive first baseman in the league, in other words, he was a middle of the pack fielder this season.
Look, Lee does have his strengths. He gets on base and hits for a solid average, but his power is all but gone.
The power is gone, and the average slipped badly.
There really wasn’t a whole lot about Lee’s 2008 campaign that inspired any confidence going forward at all.
Until the 1990’s came along, it was rare to see a player keep up his offensive production into his 30’s. It happened, but more often than not, players were in decline by 33. Chemical enhancement in the 1990’s skewed a whole lot of fans’ perception of how baseball players are likely to age. Lee is not “losing it” faster than any number of MLB stars before him did — he’s just a clean player who is entering his mid 30’s, and can’t quite recognize a breaking pitch or turn on a fastball like he used to.
If some MLB GM is willing to take on the last 2 years of his salary, I would jump all over the deal. And honestly, getting a change of scenery — maybe going somewhere where the scouting reports on him aren’t so detailed, could be a huge boost for Lee, too.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
I agree with you on everything.
Do you find it odd that Lee’s batting eye has slipped as badly as it has? I haven’t done any research myself, but it has been said(and written, in Moneyball) that while players lose their hitting ability with age, they rarely lose the ability to draw walks. In fact, many older players walk more in an effort to compensate for their slipping skills.
He's still drawing walks - 71 last year.
His K/BB is much better than it was in his 20’s. The really disconcerting stats are the gigantic jump in his GB/FB ratio, which led to all those double plays, and the 200 point drop in his slugging PCT from 2005, and the 50 point drop in his slugging from 2007.
After 2005, the Cubs didn’t think that they were buying a 111 OPS+ hitter for $13M/year. That’s not the kind of player you build a team around. Frankly, that’s not really a player that a super-big-market team like the Cubs should even be starting, especially at a premium offensive position.
It was a bad year. I can understand that those happen. But Lee’s 2007 was so consistently bad, for so many months, and always in exactly the same way, that it scares the heck out of me. (Watch a fastball for a strike, wave at 2 sliders away, repeat for 4 months). It shouts “trend” rather than “fluke”.
MLBMilestone.com - following the numbers to Cooperstown
Wow, bad research by me.
For some reason I was under the impression that he lost three or four points off of his BB%.
I think that Lee has struggled with the pitch off the corner for a while
and poor coaching exacerbated the problem. Let me explain.
Last year, Lee’s eye was consistently better than some umps. A pitch would be a half foot off the plate in the LH batter’s box and called for a strike and Lee would never swing at it. Lou diagnosed this as problem for Lee that could be fixed by habving a LH batter hit before him and another one a batter or two behind him. That didn’t fix the problem.
Now my impression, although I only see games on TV and could be mis-seeing this, is that Lee started to swing more at these pitches this year and didn’t make good contact. So, I’m not sure the eye went bad as much as the approach did.
I recognize that when I’m taking about batting approach, I’m in an area I am extremely liable to be wrong, so I’m curious what those who are more knowledgeable than I will say about this.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I'll take a guess...
…and say I think Lee needs to creep a little closer to the plate. If you remember what he did in 05, he made an adjustment of backing off the plate a tad and also opened his stance a hair. Before 05, teams would pound him inside and tie him up with his long arms. When he opened up and backed off, he started crushing those pitches because he could extend. It took the league about half the year to fiure it out and he started to slow down a hair in the 2nd half, but the adjustment did wonders for him.
Now, most pitchers are pounding the outside corner (and off the plate) and he is struggling to hit that pitch the opposite way with any authority. Have you noticed how many weak fly balls he has hit to right field in the last couple of years. I would live to see him creep up on the plate and start to drive that pitch more and see what happens.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Oct 18, 2008 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Trade Lee and sign Dunn?
Sorry..I can’t think of a worse idea…The problem in the playoffs was impatient hitters that strike out too much. This does nothing to solve the Cubs post season woes.
The journey is the reward!
Well, Dunn may strike out a lot...
…but he’s not necessarily impatient. He drew 122 walks this season. In fact, according to this source, Adam Dunn led the National League in base on balls in 2008. Crikey, he drew more walks than Albert freakin’ Pujols.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Final words of the water pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
lee
sorry i stll feel the love for derek lee. adam dunn??? no thanks. lee/ramirez is still one of the best back to back in the n.l.lee?the one guy who produced in the n.l.c.s.
what?
if you are saying lee produced in the playoffs your crazy- no one produced! lee and a-ram best back-2-back hitters in the league? utley- howard, berkman- lee, braun- fielder, wright- delgado, holliday(100 less ab’s than lee)- atkins, and pujols- luddick are better. dunn over lee in a heart beat!!!!! dunn would have 50 dongs a year at wrigley!! 25 more hrs and 30 more rbi, you wouldnt take that in dunn????
lee needs to go!!!!!!!!!!
by bassncubs10 on Oct 18, 2008 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
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