TBS cherrypicks stats to encourage ledge-jumping
I got out of class last night about the sixth inning and went down to the student center to get a bite to eat (I'm a grad student, that's about as nice as it gets). I was disappointed to be missing most of the game, but hell I've been a Cubs fan for twenty years, I've learned a thing or two about waiting. The game was on the TV down in the UC, and as you all know by now, the Cubs got beat fairly convincingly by LA. But I was listening to the TBS broadcast, and they displayed a stat that most likely was designed to make defeatist Cubs fans squirm. They said something like this: out of 28 division series, the team who won the first game went on to win the series 24 times. I felt terrible after hearing that, and I wanted nothing more than to go and feel sorry for myself and my team. I said out loud with several people listening, "That's a pretty convincing stat." Tony Gwynn, whom I respect both as a player and an analyst, said something like "You've got to win this game" after he heard those numbers.
TBS duped a hall of famer. And probably everybody else who watched that game on TBS.
So I came to the library to work on a paper that's due tomorrow. But I couldn't stop thinking about that number! 24 out of 28! Statistically, then, the Dodgers have like a 91% chance of winning the series. Feeling even worse, I went to the baseball fan's ultimate website: baseballreference.com to see these numbers for myself.
Suddenly I realized that TBS was VERY misleading in their presentation of those numbers, or they outright lied to make being a Cubs fan seem futile. First of all, those were the last 28 series (I'm guessing, they never made that clear). There have been 48 LDS series played in total! Now, I'm a historian, not a statistician, but something seems ass-backwards about those numbers. As a grad student, if I cherry picked numbers like that and somebody went to check up on me, that would come close to constituting MISCONDUCT. Like bad enough to ruin your academic reputation for life if you aren't removed from your graduate program or dropped from your thesis/dissertation committee first.
Here is the total breakdown:
Teams who LOST Game 1, but still won the LDS: 16.
Teams who WON Game 1, and went to win the series 32.
Statistically then, the Cubs have a 33% chance of pulling this thing off. Not 8.5% as TBS would have you believe!
But Cubs fans -- there's more!
Those 32 Series.
19 were sweeps.
13 were split.
This might be poor stats for a math major, but it works for a historian and it's not too far off the mark. Let's discount the sweeps and chaulk those up to one team being overmatched -- in three game playoff sweeps, that's usually, but not always, the case. We are left with 29 (oddly close to TBS's figure of 28) series, 16 of which the loser of the first game went on to win. That means, if the Cubs and Dodgers are evenly matched which is a fair claim, the Cubs, statistically speaking, have a 55.2% chance of going to the NLCS.
The real point of these numbers is this: tomorrow's game is the most important in the series. Only once has a team fallen 2-0 and still won the LDS. That team? The 1995 Seattle Mariners, managed by (this is too good) Lou Piniella.
Go Cubs!
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Good Work
I found that stat a little hard to believe.
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on
Oct 2, 2008 9:38 AM CDT
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Well done.
I was wondering about that too.
28/4=7. So that would be since 2001. They never said that.
by CrashDavis on
Oct 2, 2008 9:41 AM CDT
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I thought it sounded fishy
Thanks
Chicago Cubs Jokes, News and Parody at The Cubs Brickyard
by AceCubbie on
Oct 3, 2008 6:50 AM CDT
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I think what they did
Was only include the NLDS. I’m not sure why, except to make it seem more dramatic. I know there are differences between the NL and AL, but nothing off-hand that I can think of that would make it easier for a Game 1 loser in the AL to ultimately win the series.
I was as depressed and downtrodden as anyone after last night, but I am still not ready to throw in the towel. I am greatly anticipating tonight’s game.
Go Cubs!
by SuperContext on
Oct 2, 2008 9:53 AM CDT
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Make that twice...
2003 Boston Red Sox came back from 2-0 against the Oakland A’s. Granted, they lost the first two games on the road (not at home), but that’s not real worrisome.
The Cubs have a better team in just about every aspect, and have a great chance to win this series.
--www.AddictedToQuack.com, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on
Oct 2, 2008 9:53 AM CDT
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And thus those Red Sox...
… had to win game 5 on the road, too.
This is a different series with different teams than all the ones before.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Oct 2, 2008 9:54 AM CDT
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Your statistic about the odds being about 33% are reasonable
For example, assuming even odds (p = 0.5) from the Binomial Distribution, the probability P that the Cubs win 3 of the next 4 games is:
P(3 games out of next 4) = 4!/( 3! * 1!) times (0.5)*(0.5)* (0.5)*(0.5)
which gives 25% probability. This of course assumes that the odds are even (p=0.5) so that the Cubs and Dodgers are evenly matched everywhere (pitching matchups, home field advantage nonexistent, etc., etc.). Since the Cubs (IMHO) are the better team, assuming 33% probability is probably reasonable….but I didn’t take into account The Curse :-)
"I'm not much of a chemistry guy, you know. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded"--Jim Frey, Chicago Tribune, 1985.
by zevkalman on
Oct 2, 2008 10:11 AM CDT
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More about TBS
Dick Stockton is the worse baseball announcer I have ever heard. Watch and listen, you’ll be amazed.
They were "Cubbed". Any team that gets beat late by the Cubs.
by flacub08 on
Oct 2, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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I'm glad I don't have to listen to him.
Field reports from all of you seem unanimous — he’s horrible. How TBS can hire a guy this bad is beyond me.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on
Oct 2, 2008 10:42 AM CDT
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TBS cherry-picks its announcers so they don't ask a lot in salary--Stockton is a bargain :-)

"I'm not much of a chemistry guy, you know. Chemistry to me is a pinch-hit double with the bases loaded"--Jim Frey, Chicago Tribune, 1985.
by zevkalman on
Oct 2, 2008 10:45 AM CDT
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Stocken is awful
but I think I’d rather listen him then Joe Morgan.
"Destiny is a matter of choice, not chance"
by MerlinDog on
Oct 2, 2008 11:56 AM CDT
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I thought he was wonderful
full of good info and easy to listen too, wait no, I got mixed up, pulled a stockton, sorry.
by JPetey on
Oct 2, 2008 11:17 AM CDT
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I wonder how did they hire Tony Gwynn?
All he says is that he agrees with Ron Darling (the only bright spot in that broadcast). It’s too bad about Stockton. He used to do the Red Sox games in the early 70’s but now appears to be way past his prime baseball wise. He should stick to football and basketball.
by Fraggin Judge on
Oct 2, 2008 3:35 PM CDT
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He's reason enough for you to go to the games in LA
I watched him on Game 1. (Flew in for Game 2.)
He just goes from bad to worse. Listening to him is like rubbing salt in the wound that is the Cubs loss.
Eamus Catuli!
by wrigley_boy on
Oct 3, 2008 3:59 PM CDT
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Stockton....
Stockton is no prize. But the worst baseball announcer around is Tim McCarver.
One time during that that dreadful 2006 season, I heard McCarver announcing a Cubs/Braves game from Wrigley Field. Cedeno made a mental gaff, and McCarver had the insight to sayt these words: “Fundamentals are a fundamental part of playing baseball.” We are all less intellegent for listening to McCarver.
by WCUBishop on
Oct 2, 2008 11:29 AM CDT
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During the clinch game...
The whole Budweiser roof tarp story was brought up… and McCarver stated that until the day before the clinching game, the Budweiser roof had been covered up by a tarp for the last 3 months.
by MillsChC on
Oct 2, 2008 2:45 PM CDT
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You didn't hear him when the Phillies clinched this year.
The play by play announcer went to the field and they left Mccarver to call the 9th inning. At one point he had the wrong player running the bases.
by Fraggin Judge on
Oct 2, 2008 3:36 PM CDT
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What about his announcing the Cubs' games last season?
He made mistake after mistake. He made the following errors at some point or another last year: 1) The Chicago Cowboys. 2) Angel Pecan(He said it like the nut) 3) Adolpho Soriano. He also referred to Donte Rosario of the Panthers as Rosario Dawson. He is losing his mind, and thats being nice.
by dakoose on
Oct 2, 2008 5:01 PM CDT
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Well done.
You’re my hero today.
make*art
by neverAcquiesce on
Oct 2, 2008 11:56 AM CDT
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Prospectus
After winning game one, Prospectus gives the Dodgers the edge on the series at 61.8%. Let’s be confident that Good Z shows up, that Harden can give us 6 innings on Saturday and the rest is ours.
by morgane on
Oct 2, 2008 2:14 PM CDT
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How about this...
Worry less about the TBS announcers. Worry more about the Cubs winning playoff baseball games. Dick Stockton sucks and is what he is. You and I aren’t going to change it. It’s like having a debate on how much Mary Todd Lincoln liked the play after Abe took a few bullets in the back.
Oh please let this dubious bullpen be good enough in the playoffs...
by MDBNIU on
Oct 2, 2008 3:32 PM CDT
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He only took one bullet
and it was in the head…..right behind the ear.
Nothin'. A handful of nothin'. You stupid mullet head. He beat you with nothin'. Just like today when he kept comin' back at me......with nothin'.
Yeah, well, sometimes nothin' can be a real cool hand.
by Tackle Box on
Oct 2, 2008 7:22 PM CDT
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The thing people forget is this
Sports are NOT like flipping a coin or rolling dice. The probability in these sorts of things goes out the window. Nothing is assured. That’s why they play the games, to coin a phrase.
You can perhaps apply mathematical principles to individual stats, but not to whether a team wins or loses. If we could do that, nobody would watch, because victory or defeat would be preordained.
by Not Bruce Froemming on
Oct 2, 2008 3:50 PM CDT
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Good point, but you're a little off...
My job in television is exactly that – to get the graphics, think them up, have them built in the computers, watch the game, and then get them on the screen.
Many graphics like that are not made with fans in mind… they are simply made before the game (usually many many hours or even days… for me, I am at every game 6-8 hours prior to its start just making graphics, sometimes we make them days in advance) and on the rundown (what is going into the game, what they want to do, profile, etc.) it will say something like “NLDS historical stats” or something like that.
Not to get too much into live TV production, but my point is that graphic was going on the air anyway, no matter who won.
Make it happen baby: Cubs, Jaguars, FSU, Jazz, Thrashers.
by camnorris14 on
Oct 2, 2008 6:05 PM CDT
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However! (Stephen A. Smith style)
That does not excuse them simply getting the facts wrong. The producer or font coordinator (what I just described above) are responsible for the factual accuracy of the graphics.
Make it happen baby: Cubs, Jaguars, FSU, Jazz, Thrashers.
by camnorris14 on
Oct 2, 2008 6:06 PM CDT
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I feel a little better now
WOW WHAT A SEASON!
by SouthsideCUBSfan on
Oct 3, 2008 12:35 PM CDT
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TBS broadcast is terrible
It’s like they just make shit up with nothing to back it up. They say completely wrong things and don’t correct themselves. They said something about Fukudome endeering himself to the fans with a walk off home run against the Brewers. That was a game tying home run. They said yesterday that someone had gone 0 for 4 with a single in game one. These are just a couple examples but i felt like i was correcting them to myself. Everything they said was at least a little bit inaccurate. Stockton is terrible, Darling is just as bad and Tony Gwynn was one hell of a baseball player.
2008 National League Central Division Champs!!!!!
by BradB311 on
Oct 3, 2008 9:44 PM CDT
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Now, how many of those teams that went 0-2 and still advanced
were the home team for those first two games?
by ChipSet on
Oct 4, 2008 10:07 PM CDT
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...
len and bob need to webcast during the next postseason.
it just doesnt feel right without them.
my stuff is filthy
by carlos marmol on
Oct 6, 2008 8:37 AM CDT
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