Momentum in Baseball

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 1:10 PM CDT

Tom Tango analyzes a commonly held belief that momentum is a strong force in baseball. I linked his post here, since the last few fanposts we've had discussed intangibles like gamers, winners and clutch.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/momentum-shmomentum/

I've studied baseball objectively for the past 6 months, the most important thing I have learned is that so-called "baseball experts" are extremely subjected to memory biases and generally are very lackluster in their ability to analyze baseball in most capacities.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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+1 on all the intangibles...

Let’s just put the best team on the field next year rather than try to pinpoint some intangible and acquire some hack who has won a World Series.

I’m not saying we need to be content with getting swept…but I believe putting the best team on the field (as we did this year) will ultimately lead to a WS title.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 23, 2008 1:48 PM CDT reply actions

Why didn't it this year, then?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 23, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Playoffs are a crapshoot...

I think anyone can concede that. The best teams tend to advance, but that isn’t always the case. If we put ourselves in that position enough times, eventually we’ll bust through.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 23, 2008 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions

1998-99 Yankees

That makes the accomplishments of those Yankees teams all the more impressive. They won a combined 212 regular season games and went 22-3 in postseason play over those two seasons.

I don’t see any team ever being able to duplicate BOTH those regular season and postseason feats over two seasons. Oh, by the way, the Yankees won the World Series in 2000. That team only went 87-74 in the regular season with a 11-5 postseason record.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 24, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions

And that Yankee team in 2000...

… lost 13 of its last 15 regular season games.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 24, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions

Ask the Steinbrenners how they feel about this concept, for a while now.

Tommie Agee was out.

by Weeghman Park on Oct 23, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Do you honestly...

think they have the best team right now?

I’d take their results for the past 15 years.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 23, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions

because the best team

doesn’t always win the world series. It takes a 162 games to weed out the contenders and pretenders… It takes a maximum of 19 games to win the World Series…

And everyone of those 19 games are against equally great teams.

If the Cubs were going to go on a 19 games streak against teams with a +.550 winning % what would you predict their record to be (assuming this would happen in the regular season).

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:05 PM CDT reply actions

Correct.

The postseason is very different from the regular season. It may take a different kind of team to win in the postseason. What kind of team is that? Wish I knew. It seems different every year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 23, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions

not much different

except for the fact that closers will pitch for than one inning of relief, and pitchers pitching on short rest

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions

No, I'm not talking about logistics.

I’m talking about the attitude and atmosphere surrounding postseason games.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 23, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions

more commercials, more

expensive graphics? worse coverage? the media perpetuated this stuff, not the players on the field.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions

here is what we know and I hope we both agree on

playoff sucess:

Constants:

You have to make the playoffs to win a world series
World Series teams are really good
Money can’t buy a world series title
It is impossible to predict the outcome with 100 percent accuracy of a potential world series winner

With that being said, it doesn’t serve well to focus on things you can’t control, rather than things you can. Making the playoffs and building a good team is more important than trying to figure out who the hero is going to be. I mean Derrek Lee hit .545 in the LDS… if they won the series he would be the MVP of the series… and all the talk would be the “cubs veteran comes up in the clutch to help his team”… but they lost. So it gets swept under the rug. The most important thing for a GM to do is build the best possible team he can build. Don’t worry about intangibles, as they are intangible. For everyone dollar won with people going soley by their gut, a 100 dollars have been lost.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions

The team the plays the best, period

Some years it’s the most clutch hitting, others it’s absolutely stellar starting pitching and sometimes others it’s flexibility of various players. Then there’s the hybrid factor, many things going well.

The fact is we got all giddy about the Cubs beating up on mediocre pitching all season. On occassion they beat a good pitcher. More often than not, they didn’t.

Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.

by blackhawk24 on Oct 23, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions

The closest thing that they

encountered this season was from Jun 13th – July 3rd

Toronto, Rays, White Sox, Baltimore, White Sox, SF

Their record: 8-11

And SF isn’t a playoff caliber team.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:10 PM CDT reply actions

The best team doesn't always

win in the playoffs, in the regular season, on paper, in your head, in the newspapers, on the field, in the minor leagues, anywhere in baseball.

In fact, this very principal is the reason why vegas makes money. A team with 4-1 odds to win a game will lose 25 of them out of a 100. No intangible ability will be able to sway the odds. Because the intangibles are implied within the odds.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:14 PM CDT reply actions

Great article, thanks!

by Wreckard on Oct 23, 2008 2:18 PM CDT reply actions

Most of the time...

…playoff teams are good teams and that is why they got there. The point here is this; it is obvious that the most talented team doesn’t always win, but the team that PLAYS BEST during the playoffs will win.

Now, we have to seperate the difference between a more talented team getting beat by a team that is hot, or a more talented team getting beat because they played poorly. There is a distinct difference here folks and one that has had the Cubs fall to the “played poorly” category for two straight years and six straight losses. IMO, playing poorly during the time you would expect your players to be more than ready to play, is what has to be looked at seriously. Something is missing with this crew, and you have to shuffle the deck a bit to send a message to those that are returning.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 23, 2008 2:21 PM CDT reply actions

I think 25 man depth

is strong enough to get you to the post season, but makes it a crapshoot to win in the post season. Because generally you are only using half of them in critical situations. The fact that you have a backup second basemen who hit .300 won;t help you win a game in the post season if he is on the bench. However, having him in your lineup when your regular 2b takes the off, will help you win that game.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 23, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Right.

Examining the REASONS they played poorly and fixing that, I would think, is first priority. Clearly, they had the talent or they wouldn’t have won 97 games during the season.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 23, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions