WWG&WWCG: Bullpen, with an explanation for why the Cubs might let Kerry Wood go
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 12:36 PM CDT
110 comments
What We've Got & What We Could Get: Bullpen Edition
The normal bullpen today has seven relievers. I expect Lou wants at least one top lefty not now on roster added for 2009.
We can pencil in Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, and Chad Gaudin. Angel Guzman will try again, but I’m not counting on him. If he could stay healthy, he’d be a huge addition. The “if” there is just as huge as the potential.
Sean Marshall probably starts 2009 with Gaudin as a long-man. We need two long-men to get regular work to backup the injury-risks we carry in the rotation. Lou needs to work on better 'pen management for that reason.
Rich Hill, out of options, may also start in the ‘pen. Unless there is a personality problem with Rich, it doesn’t make sense to trade him at his current value. In 2007 lefties couldn’t hit Rich at all, so starting him in the ‘pen might make some sense.
If we start 2009 with all those guys and the new lefty, we’re already at 7 pitchers. I don’t we should expect both Hill and Guzman on the roster, but maybe we’re starting to see why the Cubs might let Kerry walk. (Theoretical question – if the Cubs decided to let Kerry walk, but offered him arb – would Kerry accept?)
If Bob Howry manages to pick up Type B status, I’d offer him arbitration. On a one-year deal, he’s probably tradable and I might take a risk on him bouncing back.
There are a lot of good lefties on the market this year. Brian Fuentes, Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Beimel, Dennys Reyes, Arthur Rhodes all are available. The guy I’d recommend is Hitoki Iwase. He’s on the Chunichi Dragons, Dome’s old team, left-handed, and “probably the most accomplished relief pitcher currently active in Japan.” So, we don’t have to give a draft pick to get him, we get a Fukufriend, and we get possibly the best lefty reliever available. Sounds like a no-brainer to me.
Neal Cotts isn’t getting left-handed batters out. He’s starting to get expensive. It’s time to trade him.
Michael Wuertz is underrated, but he’s not an option to Lou. He’s going to get expensive. It’s time to trade him.
Jose Ascanio was a total bust and when you consider that Atlanta got, not just the better reliever, but also our best SS out of the deal, it’s fair to ask if this was Jim Hendry’s worst trade ever, worse than even the Juan Pierre trade. At least with Pierre, Hendry got what he (and Dusty) were looking for. Maybe Ascanio can be salvaged, but he can’t be counted on to start 2009.
Jose Ceda’s going to need to be put on the 40-man to avoid Rule Ving, I’d bet, but I wouldn’t start 2009 with him on the big league club. If Donald Veal gets swapped to the ‘pen and he takes to the swap, he could also be a big mid-season boost. I have hope one of those guys could help in the Fall of 2009.
I don’t have a lot of hope in Kevin Hart. Anyone want to make a case for him?
Anyone know what happened to Carmen Pignatiello?
So, this is what I’m seeing as a base plan in our 2009 ‘pen
Marmol – Closer
Samardzija, Guzman – Setup/Middle Relief
Iwase – Top Lefty
Gaudin, Marshall – Long men
Hill – LOOGY
I expect one of Guzman or Hill to be upgraded, possibly with Kerry Wood slotting back in as closer. We can at least see, though, how the Cubs might see Wood as expendable. Thoughts?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Bullpen
Kerry Wood stayed remarkably healthy and productive in 2008 for a guy playing with such a messed up right arm. Asking him to continue at the pace two years in a row is tall order. Hence why I understand completely why the Cubs are unwilling to go three years on a contract with Wood. This organization has paid Wood an awful lot of money for an awful lot of downtime the last decade. At some point you need to make smart decision by the ballclub.
Carlos Marmol? Great set-up man, but chances are his heavy workload of 2008 will catch up with him in 2009. Hopefully the reformulated bullpen is deep enough where Piniella doesn’t have to rely on Marmol so much.
2009 bullpen MVP? Jeff Spellcheck. I think he is going to prove absolutely invaluable in a set-up role.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 24, 2008 12:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
This is where your argument about sentiment comes in…
I was initially for resigning Wood, but an objective look indicates that he has had frequent injury problems and that we have Marmol ready and waiting for the Closer role. He’d have to take some kind of hometown discount for it to be a good signing.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iwase sounds intriguing
It’s a page out of the Red Sox book – they brought in Okajima so this way Matsuzaka would have a countryman in the clubhouse.
Might not be the worst investment and could help Fukudome.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 12:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Cubs have good potential options for the pen...
Wood, Marmol, Spellcheck, Gaudin, Guzman, Marshall, maybe Rich Hill. Randy Wells also looked quite effective before going down with injury.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 24, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Marshall and Hill are possibilities as left-handed relievers, but Iwase could present something new in the sense that virtually no one in America has seen him pitch. I see Marshall more as a long-man, not a situational lefty.
Just as Okajima was virtually un-hittable in his first ML season, Iwase could do the same in the Cubs pen, and no one would have to worry about the lack of a quality left-handed reliever.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Trey here,
yes, the Cubs have a lot of RH options, but I think Lou wants a top LH reliever to solidify the ’pen and there are a lot of options out there for Hendry to make that happen. We can do RHs and long-men in-house. But the start-of-the-seasn lefty shut-down guy will come from the outside.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Sox at least brought them both in at the same time...
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
But why not give Fukudome a chance to more comfortable (if that was an issue), with one of his teammates (and a good one, at that) from Chunichi?
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not the worst idea I've heard.
If it would improve the bullpen, do it.
If you’re doing it ONLY for Fukudome, it’s probably not worth it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 24, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I saw the benefits as two-fold: first and foremost, it could solve the desire for a dominant lefty. Secondly, it it could help Fukudome, and if he can play better next year, the team is better.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Iwase's a pretty safe bet
especially since as a lefty, he’ll have value even if he isn’t that effective against RHP (which I think he will be).
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't go all in on Samardzija.
Fangraphs or THT, I can’t remember which one, had a nice piece on Samardzija and his pitches thrown. Simply put, Samardzija doesn’t throw enough strikes, and most pitchers with his ball:strike ratio do not maintain success in the bigs. Thats not to say that he can’t succeed next year, but he’ll definitely have to work on his control in the off-season. I don’t know if I would let Wood leave and bank on Samardzija taking Marmol’s place as a dominant set-up man.
by dakoose on Oct 24, 2008 12:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
the transition from starting to relieving had something to do with that.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That might be true,
but his 2008 AA BB/9 of 4.97 wasn’t anything to write home about. He “improved” to 3.86 in AAA but regressed to 4.88 in the bigs. The kid has awesome stuff, but a reliever(especially under Lou) can’t go out and walk guys the way Jeff has. He has work to do. I’m not hating, just being objective.
by dakoose on Oct 24, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, you're not hating. You're right.
Counting on Guzman and/or Samardzija to step up next season is a recipe for a Lou-tantrum. They both need to get a shot and both could be good. But they both could end up off the 25-man roster 6 weeks in. That’s the non-sentimental case for keeping both Wood and Marmol.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm hoping they...
really give Guzman a shot next year (assuming good health).
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he'll get the shot.
I’m hoping he can stay healthy for a whole season. I’ve always pulled for Guzman and hope he can make it this time.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guzman is out of options
so he will either be on the MLB roster, traded or lost on waivers.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guzman has an option left.
That’s why the Cubs called him up on expanded rosters, not any sooner than that.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sold on Samardzjia.
Ball four is a serious problem with this guy and has plagued him throughout his brief career. I’d rather not see him trying to iron out his control issues in the 8th inning with the game on the line.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Oct 24, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't write off Ascanio yet.
He will be 24 in March — not old. He’s got a good arm. Maybe he could be in the mid-inning mix in 2009.
And I’m sorry, but Kerry Wood has to remain a Cub. His performance merited it, and so does his loyalty.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 24, 2008 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
couldnt agree more.
Ascanio i think has a lot of potential. And i think would look great in the bullpen taking Howry’s spot. Also Wood needs to be signed. He has to be signed. He is the heart and soul of this team and organization now. I think he is the top priority to be signed, not Dempster.
by TJ3117 on Oct 24, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Loyalty does not win ball games...
I like Wood, but his six blown saves and four losses and his injury history are red flags to me. I’ll give him a two year contract with incentives for a third year at a reasonable salary, without a no-trade, but I don’t agree that he “has to remain a Cub.” My goal would be to move him before his 10-5 kicks in.
In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this? -Oysterband
by Ross on Oct 24, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Six blown saves and four losses?
So what? That happens to closers. Yes, I know, Brad Lidge didn’t blow a single save. That’s very unusual.
Troy Percival, who closed for the Rays till he got hurt, blew four saves. So did Bobby Jenks, another closer for a playoff team.
Francisco Rodriguez, who set the save record this year, had SEVEN blown saves and three losses.
Wood had no injury issues in 2008 that were red flags. He had a blister problem that was fixed. I agree with your suggestion on a two-year deal with an option year for a third. That’d make sense for everyone concerned.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 24, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
Also that was his first year as a closer the numbers he put up.
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 24, 2008 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Kerry already has 10 & 5 rights with the Cubs.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
34 Saves and 3.26 ERA
Those aren’t bad numbers for a closer. Four of Kerry’s five wins were in games in which he did NOT blow a save. For the record on the “negative” side, 1 win in a game with a blown save, 1 loss in a game without a blown save, 3 losses in games accompanied by blown saves, and 2 blown saves in games in which he did not get a decision. The Cubs split those two games in which Kerry did not get a decision but blew a save.
On the unqualified plus side, 34 saves with 4 wins in games in which he did NOT have a blown save overpowers the negative stuff. We can thank Kerry for 38 wins this past season. There are only 7 times one could say he did not come through. You can only blame Kerry for five losses. Those are the four losses on his record and the May 24 game against Pittsburgh in which Kerry blew the save in the 9th and the Pirates eventually won in the 14th.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Oct 24, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sign Wood
then go from there. I am a big Wood Supporter, so yeah if you want to call it sentiment fine, but to me the guy stays. I think Marmol right now is not ready, he can have some filthy stuff, other times rather ordinary. Sign Wood.
"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"
by Grockcubs on Oct 24, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
:) LOL
That means you missed the best part!
I certainly understand wanting nothing to do with Howry, but he’s got a good track record and is the style of reliever Lou likes. I’m not sure Howry accepts arbitration anyway.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want to
see Howry anywhere near Wrigley Field in the next 20 years.
by sue369 on Oct 24, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not even pitching for the Brewers?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Oct 24, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Ascanio deal wasnt that bad
Come on, they only gave up Ohman and Omar Infante, who I dont think ever even suited up for the team in the regular season.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Omar Infante not only suited up -
- he had a better 2008 than Ryan Theriot both with the bat and the glove.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant suited up for the Cubs, sorry.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Theriot was better actually...
Theriot had a better batting avg by about 10 points and had a better OBP by over 50 points, all in full time duty, while Infante only had 317 ABs compared to Theriot’s 580.
And Theriot had a .975 FP compared to Infantes .935 FP in only 20 games at short.
So not, Infante didnt have a better 2008 actually.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Head to head comp
Theriot – OPS+ 93
Infante – OPS+ 98
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't there a big difference in the number of plate appearences?
If so, can’t that skew the stats if Riot played every day and Infante was a role player?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only if Infante was benched against particular pitchers...
if it’s just a random lack of playing time, then the expected OPS for a sample of 500+ PA should be the same as the expected OPS for a same of 315 PA.
The only way that the stats would be skewed would be if Infante was in a platoon, which could bias his stats upwards compared to a regular player (because he’d be avoiding PA against pitchers who would give him more problems). Judging by his splits, it doesn’t appear that Infante was being platooned (194 AB vs RHP, 123 vs LHP).
by SouthernCub on Oct 24, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
typo correction...
“for a SAMPLE of 315 PA.”
To add to this, there would be a larger chance of variation in the smaller sample of PA, but the expected value should be the same between the two samples for any given player.
by SouthernCub on Oct 24, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe FP...
figures in weak arms and range.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably not...
But its not an apt comparison b/c Infante isnt a full time SS nor is he a full time player.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
But I would argue Theriot isn’t a full time player either
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well thats not much of an argument..
Seeing as he was a starting SS all year.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant...
in general.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the question is not "What was?"
But “did the Cubs make the wrong decision at SS?”
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I see the point in quibbling over Infante and Theriot...
I don’t think Theriot should be a shortstop on any sort of regular basis, and I’d LOVE to upgrade that position defensively. But I also don’t know that Infante would have been appreciably better.
It remains to be seen if trading Infante and Ohman for Ascanio was a good move. But I don’t think arguing over what would have been at best a marginal upgrade over Theriot has much point.
Now, if you want to speculate as to value moving forward, there may be a discussion. It could be that Infante’s defense is appreciably better and that Theriot’s offense will regress substantially.
by SouthernCub on Oct 24, 2008 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
My argument was more against Theriot’s overvalued stats (FP, BA) rather than a Infante/Theriot debate.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Oct 24, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on that...
Theriot’s defense is highly overrated if you use FP as your metric, which undervalues his lack of arm strength and lack of range. He fields the balls he can get to (which are fewer than a good SS) and he throws accurately enough but without any mustard. So you don’t see how many extra singles Theriot allows by not being able to get to balls and by not being able to throw runners out.
The only thing Theriot brought to the table in 2008 (and he did so quite well) was OBP. He got on base at a very high rate. That said, I have doubts as to whether or not he can maintain that moving forward. And if he doesn’t do so, he falls into the category of a substantial liability.
by SouthernCub on Oct 24, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding percentage only tells you what happens when a guy gets to the ball.
And even then it’s an incomplete story – it doesn’t tell you whether or not the runner beat the throw, for example.
It doesn’t answer any questions about how good a player is at getting to the ball, which is the most important part of fielding.
Or look at it this way. The gap between the best and worst qualified starter at shortstop this year was .021 in FPCT. Or in other words, the difference between the best and worst shortstop in 583 chances (the average for a qualified starter) is 12 plays per year.
That’s just far too small a spread of talent – the best defensive shortstop is probably closer to 30 runs above the worst shortstop.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should clarify that...
…one fielding play is worth (roughly) .7 runs, so the difference in FPct between the best and worst starter was 8.4 runs.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This comparison isnt valid
You cant compare a part time players stats with those of a full timer, even if you believe Theriot is not an everyday player, which he clearly is. I would argue he’d be better suited for second base, but to say Infante had the better year is clearly misguided.
So to get a 24 yr old (now) hard throwing reliever for Will Ohman and Omar Infante, neither of whom we had any use for, is a good deal. 24 is nothing for a pitcher, he’s still learning how to harness his arm.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is
that we could have had a use for Infante, given that SS was our biggest hole among the 2008 position players, and Infante can play SS at least as well as Theriot.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand, but...
He doesnt have the on base skills that Theriot displayed this year, which we all know by now, is critical to the Cubs offense.
If I ever bemoan the lack of Omar Infante, Ill just stop following baseball all together.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the flip side,
Theriot doesn’t have any power at all, while Infante does.
by dakoose on Oct 24, 2008 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Irony
You said,
If I ever bemoan the lack of Omar Infante, Ill just stop following baseball all together.
And I can understand that. What’s ironic for me is that I don’t see Theriot being substantially better than Infate and yet, the distinct impression is given that if the Cubs lacked Ryan Theriot there would be much moaning and bemoaning from many people.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is better
Look at their numbers from this year, and sure you can say had the Cubs kept Infante he may very well have been our starting SS, but thats not the case….so for now Theriot is the better player, higher average and better on base skills and more steals.
Im not pro-Theriot by any means and I wish he were a second baseman instead, but we didnt need power from the SS this year, there were several 20 HRs in the lineup, so if thats Infantes only advantage, its not necessarily one that would make the team better.
So the team shedded Ohman and Infante, who apparently Lou didnt like in either case, and got a young, lively arm full of potential…..and Theriot out performed Infante this year.
Neither is an ideal everyday SS IMO, but we’re stuck with Theriot and I dont see that changing
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So, Theriot was the better player...
…so long as we’re ignoring caught stealings, extra-base hits and defense.
Got it!
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, right, and park effects.
So, just ignore baserunning, extra-base hits, defense and park effects, and Theriot is obviously a better baseball player. Got it.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude
Infante wasnt even a full time player….this is a horrible comparison in any regard.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 6:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, so what's you're point?
That because the Braves had a full-time shortstop better than either Theriot or Infante, that Infante could not have been better than Theriot?
I don’t get it.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly dont remember..ha
I did mention above a caveat that he may have had better numbers if he played more, but he didnt….and they traded him about a month after they got him from Detroit, so they didnt deem him necessary….so, in that regards, I felt the Ascanio deal wasnt “hendrys worst”
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Park Effects
According to baseball reference, Theriots lgBA and lgOBP, both park adjusted, are both slightly higher, as was his lgOPS….their range factors and park adjusted range factors were identical as SS’s
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
scratch that...
wrong category…..either way Im sure this is the most attention ever paid to Omar Infante
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay.
Well, if you understand the basic premise – that Theriot and Infante have similar value, or at least did this season – and you understand that Infante was basically a throw-in in the Ohman-for-Ascaino trade, then you start to understand the sort of opinion a sect of us have about Theriot.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And so long as we're discussing this...
…let’s look at some defensive metrics that don’t abjectly suck.
Somebody is going to look at the RZR numbers and go, “Look, a higher RZR for Theriot!” That is correct. Look over at the OOZ column, though, and you’ll see that Infante has double the number of out of zone plays as Theriot per inning played in the field.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I’ll concede that he has better range at short, but he’s never done it at SS for a full season, so we cant be certain how his numbers would extrapolate.
If nothing else, this really shows the Front Office’s affinity for Theriot, certainly Infante would’ve been more valuable than Cedeno.
Well said, I’ll just leave it at that b/c this is way too much devotion to a Theriot v Infante debate.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at...
…some scouting data, they rate out pretty closely, Theriot slightly ahead of Infante. 50 is average for fielding, position neutral, so below average for a shortstop – both of them are probably below-average fielders for the position, as you would expect from utility infielder types.
That’s really the point here – Theriot is the same sort of player as Infante, or Marco Scutaro, etc. He’s not even the best of the breed.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting reports
Looking at those numbers makes me covet Macier Izturis even more.
Here’s a question – would you play Omar Vizquel or Ryan Theriot at SS if you had the option?
Off of SS, I’m surprised Hermida ranks so low and that changes my interest in him if this report is accurate. I guess RZR and OOZ doesn’t have him faring that well either. Where did I get it in my head that he was a good defender?
What’s your take on Derrek Lee’s defense – he rates #2 here, but often much closer to average under statistical analyses.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ive seen a few Anti-Hermida things..
floating around out there, basically saying he has no passion for the game, which spills over into his preparation….but I guess thats another post.
Id be curious to see how Vizquel rates with the modern fielding tools.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, but perhaps unreliable.
Not to doubt any of Tango’s contributers, but are you aware that those scouting reports are made up of a bunch of random fans’ opinions. The reports could be very accurate, or they could also be heavily influenced by fans with biases or small sample sizes, or just ignorant fans.
by dakoose on Oct 24, 2008 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When it comes to defensive reports
I’m a mix of agnostic and polytheistic. I’m not sure I should discount random fan sampling more than statistical models that seem to be revised every half-season.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen several studies on the FSR...
…and done a few of my own. It seems to match up pretty well with what we get out of our defensive evaluation systems. Rally did a nice study on it just a few days ago.
I tend to combine looking at the FSR with the zone-based metrics. Yes, there are biases – the big one seems to be that fans don’t catch a star player’s decline phase on defense for several years (think Griffey Jr.). But it is another data point, and it does let us break fielding down into components, which is something we don’t get out of zone-based metrics.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't mention Theriot or Infante.
The fielding percentages listed were Jimmy Rollins and Hanley Ramirez. My specific point was about the fact that knowing fielding percentage isn’t very useful.
Oh, and you’re wrong, but that’s completely irrelevant to my point.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With his performance this year, I see no reason why the Cubs
would even fool with bringing Howry back. They have plenty of other options and if it were me, I would want to avoid all of the drama associated with having him back.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention his age.
36 next August.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 24, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is more about the draft pick than about Howry.
What’s the worst that could happen if we offered arb to Howry? He accepts? Well, we can try and trade a guy who’s been a top reliever 4/5 past years. And if we can’t trade him? We bring him to camp and see if he’s back. If he’s not, we’re out 4 M. I think a potential draft pick is worth that risk.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Considering that draft pick is likely to be no more than 31st best?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 24, 2008 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We need draft picks.
We have $.
We could easily lose our first round pick if we sign one of Milton Bradley, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez, Rafael Furcal, Derek Lowe, or Orlando Hudson.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, since we've had such great luck with draft picks, I would think that this would be a no-brainer.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, maybe the Brewers will sign Howry
before we have to make the decision of whether or not to offer arbitration.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 24, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
THAT would be sweet.
I’d like to see A Ram light one of his big fat fastballs right off him ..
Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!
by cubnational on Oct 25, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of MLB players have come from the sandwich round.
I believe Clay Bucholtz (Bo-Sox) was a sandwich pick for Pedro, just to name one.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Joba as well
Dont discount those picks
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Oct 24, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So now we have a plan to transform Bob Howry into
Joba Chamberlain. I’m really liking this.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Jason Marquis was, too.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Oct 24, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aw geez..you just popped my balloon. I was thinking Joba and you give me Marquis? Sheeeet!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a few more:
Matt Murton
Huston Street
Adam Jones
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Jones....you mean Pacman?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the non-criminal one.
the centerpiece of the Seattle-Baltimore trade from a year ago.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Oct 24, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whew..I thought we had a real story on our hands. - PACMAN MAKES IT RAIN IN SEATTLE -
Film at eleven!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 24, 2008 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Howry won't be back
Even Hendry understands that.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
by MDBNIU on Oct 24, 2008 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is to get the sandwich pick offering Bobby arbitration, not resigning him.
The risk of offering arbitration would be that he would accept.
If that would happen, I believe he would still be eligible to be traded right away because he is resigning with his current team. (I recall that Juan Uribe was eligible to be traded even though he signed a 1 year deal with the Sox in the offseason.)
Also, wouldn’t the Cubs have the option of releasing a Howry before a certain date in Spring Training and only paying a portion of his salary? (Like what happened to Todd Walker and Reed Johnson?)
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No I don't think it works that way
With vets at least arbitration is kind of like you break it is yours. Obviously if you could just release a player after you agreed to
arbitration, there would be little point and EVERY player would be offered arbitration. Hendry is not going to risk the almost certainty that Howry would accept it and be extremely difficult to trade. Jeez at that rate you would offer arb to Ward and would have offered to Floyd, Burntitz etc etc. It makes sense to offer arbitration to a valuable player even if you can’t resign like Dempster or Wood because SOME body would sign them, you would never do this with Howry.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 24, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Todd Walker got released after accepting arbitration.
I don’t recall how much he ended up being paid.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was only paid a portion of his salary.
He was awarded $3.9 million when he won his arbitration case. The Padres only had to pay him 987,500 by releasing him by a certain date.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well then...
… it might be worth offering Howry arbitration, since he’s not likely to get more than he made in 2008.
The danger is that by having Howry in camp, Lou will insist on keeping him.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Oct 25, 2008 4:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more reason
why Jim Hendry needs to step up and be the GM.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is true BUT
it is against the rules to bargain in bad faith. Walker screwed himself by going to arbitration and winning more than
the Padres wanted to pay him, if you offer Howry arbitration and he accepts your offer you can’t cut him because the union would file a grievance and win on the grounds that you never intended to keep him or bargain in good faith and they would win. It would also never happen because Hendry does not operate that way. If you offer Howry (or any other second tier player) arbitration it will make it harder for them to make a deal with another team which may not be
willing to part with a draft pick.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 25, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Todd Walker filed a grievance and nothing ever came of it.
Howry is a type B free agent and the team signing him would not lose a draft pick. A team is only given a sandwich pick as compensation for type B free agents.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You would only offer arbitration to players that would offer compensatory draft picks.
I think it’s something like the top 20% of players of each position are type A status and the top 40% are type B status. This is not just free agents, but all players at that position in each league.
Players like Floyd, Burnitz and Ward would not be rated this high and therefore a team would not be awarded draft picks. That’s why a team would not offer them arbitration.
Also, teams that sign Japanese players are not given compensation for free agents.
Remember how terrible Eric Gagne was last year with the Red Sox? He was offered arbitration by the Bo-Sox and they received draft picks when the Brewers signed him.
I wouldn’t be so quick to say that Howry would accept arbitration if offered. Remember, the REASON he is classified as a class B free agent is his track record, specifically over the last 2 years.
He could very easily bounce back next year and there’s a good chance another team will sign him at least to a 1 year deal. Pitchers who have had the success Howry have had in his career are sought after by teams because of the shortage of major league pitching.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 24, 2008 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right, but that's the top 20% in the Elias Sporting Bureau's...
…Byzantine and secretive evaluation system. I don’t think it bears much relation with reality.
by cwyers on Oct 24, 2008 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's hope LOU understands that
Hendry was not to guy who kept putting him in in once crucial situation after another AND on the post season roster.
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Oct 24, 2008 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some internal names to ponder
There’s been some suggestions that a guy like Jeremy Papelbon or Casey Lambert could make it onto the club as lefty pen arms. In terms of righties, don’t forget about Randy Wells as a middle reliever. Dumas Garcia is also a legitimate thought, as is a guy like Rocky Roquet if he has a strong spring.
by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I know what MY ideal bullpen would be.
Hoping that we can dump Marquis on some team (with us eating the salary) and move Marshall to the rotation, then I believe Wood would be a no-brainer to re-sign. If Rich Hill craps out again in ST, then we should sign Wood. If Marquis is our 5th starter, then Marshall has to be in the ’pen, obviously. So, mine would shape up to this, ideally:
Wood- Closer
Marmol- Setup
Shark- Setup
Marshall- Long Relief
Gaudin- Long Relief
New Lefty
Guzman/Hill
Of course let Howry walk. Depending in their spring training performances (not statistically, obviously), pick one of Hill/Guzman. 3 lefties seems too much, so if a lefty is signed, then I’m unsure about retaining Hill. Just my thoughts right now, it’s actually a pretty hairy situation.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. - Dave Barry
by zm1217 on Oct 25, 2008 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not quite sure what the point of dumping Marquis if you are going to eat most of his salary.
If you’re going to pay him, you might as well get some production out of him. At the very least, Marquis gives the Cubs depth which is valuable. With Harden’s health a continuing question mark and Z also had health issues this year, pitching depth is very important.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Update: Iwase likely to stay in Japan
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 27, 2008 10:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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