Would you make this trade?

wow

trade Harden and Marmol for Hawpe? Soto for Pence?! r u crazy? Vitters for Giles, who is on the decline. no way man, and besides there are hardly any one for one trades anymore. Youre just throwin names out there. I can maybe go for the Pie for Swisher deal, but the two crazy ones are the Aramis and Harden Marmol deals

by Eric16 on Oct 25, 2008 1:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The question is this:

How badly do the Cubs want a LHB with power? Hawpe might be the best one available in a trade, and the Rockies are known to drastically over-value their players. I don’t think I would do that trade either, but I’m of the opinion that the Cubs led the league in runs scored without much LHB help. I don’t think that Lou shares my opinion.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hold on

The Cubs did have a ton of LHB help when you break the season apart piece by piece – Dome covered us until Edmonds got here. As a Cub, Edmonds was top-notch lefty thump, plus Fontenot pitched in. The problem is that all three of those seem unlikely to repeat.

I’m sympathetic to the idea that the lefty-lack is overrated, and I think Dome will bounce back, but I can see where the Cubs are coming from here, too.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think I'd make any of those trades.

I agree with some of your assumptions, though.

I might like trade #4.

by EJThunder on Oct 25, 2008 2:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts – Depends on budget flexibility (can we sign someone, say, a Raul Ibanez, to slot in at first base). Would Baltimore do this? My guess is no, as I expect them to make a run and land Teixeira.

2. Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts – Much as I like DeRosa, I think I would say yes. That said, I still think he stays in Baltimore. I don’t think Baltimore would do DeRosa and Marshall for Roberts.

3. Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar – Yes, but I question if Atlanta would make a trade involving Yunel that doesn’t get back a front of the rotation pitcher.

4. Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson – Yes, but I don’t think Atlanta would do it. I’d even contemplate moving Kelly back to the OF (well, he was a MI, then moved to the OF, then back to MI).

5. Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt – No. I’m not sold that Ethier is enough of a stud, and Wade seems like the type of reliever that will go through his fair share of ups and downs. I think you can find Dewitt types. I’m actually not sure if the Dodgers do this – their braintrust is extremely high on Ethier and Dewitt.

6. Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol for Brad Hawpe – No. Hawpe is a plus platoon guy basically. I think Colorado does this in a heartbeat.

7. Chad Gaudin for Luke Scott – Maybe. I can’t say right now. My gut feeling is no, but if we strike out in the market, Gaudin types can be found. I think Baltimore would do this in a heartbeat.

8. Jason Marquis for Luis Castillo – No. Bad contract, declining talent. I’ll stick with DeRosa. Mets will jump at anything to clear Castillo’s bad contract.

9. Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn – No. Not sold Winn can replicate. I think Giants would do this as well, due to DeRosa’s versatility.

10. Rich Harden for Hank Blalock – No. As intriguig as Hank was, I’ll take my chances on Harden’s upside. Hmm … not sure if the Rangers would do this, knowing Harden’s history.

11. Josh Vitters for Brian Giles – No. Only stud prospect for an aging OF? I’ll pass. Padres would jump for joy if this happened.

12. Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino – No. Victorino is good … but he isn’t that good. I’m not sure if the Phillies do this to be honest. As good as the package may be, Victorino seems like a key guy for them that is affordable.

13. Felix Pie for Nick Swisher – Yes, but the White Sox wouldn’t do that.

14. Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence – No, I like Pence a lot but not as much as Soto.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In his defense

One of the parameters was that Teixeira signs with the Yankees, in which case the O’s taking Lee is a bit more feasible, but I dont know if they would do that anyway b/c they should be rebuilding. Which is precisely why they shouldve dealt Roberts already.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 8:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Baltimore’s thinking is that they can make a playoff push in 2010 or so, when their young talent will be up in the bigs, and their core right now has had time to settle. That’s why I think Roberts might be extended and kept there.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't you also get the sense

that if Angelos gets his Teixeira that the era of rebuilding will be over (at least for a season or two)?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

perhaps they would feel that way, although their pitching would need a lot more upgrades to really compete in the AL East. That said, their pitching should start being ready by 2010, so yeah, if they land Teixeira to anchor their young core (Wieters, Markakis, Jones), then they’ll be, for lack of a better cliched phrase, playing for keeps.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree they should wait.

But with rumors of a Roberts extension, it seems like Angelos’ patience may be running out.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

That they would do a Roberts extension irregardless. Angelos loves him, Roberts proved this year that last year wasn’t a fluke (Roberts year to year performances had fluctuated quite a bit before).

Now, they still have to get the extension done, but I think they view Roberts as the face of the franchise.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Roberts will sign an extension.

The reason that I put his rejection in as an assumption is because that is the only way that he would be traded, and his name has been very popular around BCB for the past year.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think some of your assumptions are flawed.

For one, I think Sabathia stays in the NL, either staying with the Brewers (yes, I think they will be a player) or going to the Mets or Dodgers. He likes to hit.

The only one of the proposed deals I like is the Ramirez one. Much as I like Aramis, he is 30 years old and you would be getting three players going into their best years. toonsterwu doesn’t like DeWitt — I do. He put up pretty good numbers and, more importantly, a good OBA, at age 22. Getting Ethier allows you to move Fukudome into a platoon role with Reed Johnson and swap Felix Pie somewhere — maybe to the Giants for Alex Hinshaw?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 4:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

It’s not that I don’t like DeWitt. I do … but at 2nd base. I don’t see his bat fitting for 3rd, although I’ll acknowledge that some people develop late, and some folks expect more pop from DeWitt as he matures. That said, his minor league track record doesn’t indicate that much more power potential awaiting, even acknowledging for the fact that DeWitt should hit for more power on the road as he matures. I’m just not sold that DeWitt works, and I feel like you can find DeWitt types (basically, I think of DeWitt as a young Mark DeRosa circa 2007 (I don’t expect DeRosa’s power to last)).

I’m also a fan of Ethier. That said, is Ethier the post-Manny guy, or the pre-Manny guy. If he’s closer to the post-Manny version, then fine, he’d be a solid asset as a lead chip for Aramis. If he’s anywhere closer to the former, then that’s a tough call for me. I’m not against moving anyone on this squad … but to move Aramis, you have to get a solid package, as he’s one of the best players at his position in the league. If Andre is closer to the former, fine a package with Ethier as the lead chip, with DeWitt as a secondary chip, and Wade as separate asset would be enough, if not too much as Wade’s value is at a peak. I’m just not in the camp that’s completely sold that Andre Ethier is a stud in the league or Blake DeWitt has the power for 3rd base, but only time will tell.

In saying all this, as I noted above, I’m not sure the Dodgers make that deal either. Torre’s a big fan of DeWitt and Ethier by all accounts, and Torre loves to overuse his pen arms, meaning that, with Wade coming off a good year, he’ll be a trusted asset for Joe entering next year.

Btw, you really like Hinshaw don’t you? I like Hinshaw too … but with the pitching culling they had awhile back, I think they’ll place extra value on Hinshaw. I’m not sure Pie is enough to get them to make a move, wit Rowand in CF and several options in the corner spots. A case can be made to slide Rowand over, but then they’d have to replace Hinshaw in the pen. Although, with some rumors suggesting the price for the Marlins to move Uggla will be sky high, the Giants could ponder the Lee idea I guess, and making Hinshaw an asset in a Lee deal would make sense, although I still have doubts about the Giants spending assets on someone like Lee.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 4:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oddly enough...

… Ethier actually had the worst year of his career hitting LHP. This could be attributed to the larger number of AB he had vs LHP — first time he’d really played fulltime in his major league career.

You could spell him on occasion with DeRosa in RF. You’re right that DeRo’s probably never going to have a power year as good as 2008. But remember, you are trying to build a team to win now. I’m not sure where you could find another “DeWitt type” — the Dodgers did, after all, drag him out of A ball when Nomar got hurt and they had few other options to start the year at 3B.

Maybe I was off-base on the Huff idea at 1B after trading Lee. I still think it’s time to deal D-Lee, a year too early rather than a year too late, but I may revisit my “roster” post at some point in the next few weeks with some other ideas.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 4:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I should comment up with more interesting titles than Re:.

If the goal is finding a complement to DeRosa, I think you can find an option at a much cheaper price, as you can go for a veteran with the focus being on now. Finding someone as young as DeWitt for a cheaper price is unlikely, but finding someone that might be able to produce a similar offensive level, particularly if the goal is to platoon with DeRosa, is doable, IMO. Just thinking about the Giants right now, due to the Hinshaw discussion, but a guy like Fred Lewis could probably serve as a solid platoon/complement option at a cost that won’t be too high (I’m aware of his road splits, but considering he’s early in his MLB career, I’m not too worried on that yet). Former Cub farmhand Eric Hinske is a FA again, I think, and his versatility could be quite useful.

I’m not against moving anyone, and in Lee’s case, it makes a lot of sense to try now, as he still has solid value and his contract is at the stage where teams won’t mind. Everything comes down to the payroll, but if there’s payroll tightness, then Lee should be moved if it helps facilitate other possibilities, as the goal would be to get Soriano into the middle of the order. This team doesn’t need an overhaul, but it does need tweaks so moving Lee definitely needs to be a consideration.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

100% agreed on moving Lee.

I’m going to think this over for a while and see if I can come up with a more viable idea to replace him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why would you want to platoon DeRo?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

In my “semi-realistic” scenario, DeRosa would start at 2nd. I was just responding to Al’s comments on DeRosa spelling someone and I misread that to be platoon, when I think Al was just thinking of DeRosa stepping in for a couple games here and there. My bad, was early in the morning when Al and I were trading comments.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would also keep DeWitt at 2B.

I would either move DeRo to 3B, trade DeRo for a 3B (though there aren’t many available with his bat), or trade DeRo for a leadoff hitter and sign Blake.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The main reason I added the Sabathia assumption

is to indicate that he had not signed with the Cubs — because his signing would necessitate major salary dumps elsewhere that would skew the “find a LHB and leadoff batter” premise for tweaking the roster.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't trade Ramirez

we had a 20+ year drought at 3B… let’s not risk another one. Be happy we have an All-Star there… and leave it at that.

I haz blurg: hotbeans.wordpress.com

by digitalbenjamin on Oct 28, 2008 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The ones I really don't like

6. I like Hawpe a lot, and he even has a better hitting record away from Coors than at home. Plus, I think the platoon argument for his is a bit off, he hit .282/ .350/ .476 against lefties and .283/ .391/ .505 against righties. He doesn’t see the ball as well [against lefties], so he doesn’t draw as many walks but that’s about the only disadvantage he has against them.

But, giving up one of the most dominate starting pitchers (when healthy) and one of the most dominate relief pitchers in the game for him is too much, IMHO. Maybe a one of Marmol or Harden plus throw-ins kind of trade, but not both.

14. No way I would do this. Soto is very good defensive catcher as well as an offensive force, those two qualities don’t come around very often. I know that we all like, maybe even love, Soto but I also think we may undervalue just how lucky the Cubs are to have a player like him. Pence is good, but he’s not that good.

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Oct 25, 2008 5:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Plus, who would we replace Soto with?

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Oct 25, 2008 5:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry if I'm hijacking the thread

Don’t feel like starting a thread. Let me toss out two ideas for folks to ponder. No, I don’t expect them to really happen. All in good fun.

a) Brian Roberts for Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, and Rich Hill

Maybe you add a PTBNL. I’m not sure we have the assets to make a Brian Roberts deal without someone like Theriot in the equation. I don’t see that many teams that would line up for Theriot at short, but Baltimore might be one of them with their system lacking in that department. They get Fontenot back, and that MI combination could be fine … and cheap. The Alan Dunn connection may bring Rich Hill into the equation.

b) Derrek Lee and Ronny Cedeno for Jonathan Sanchez, Emmanuel Burriss, and a PTBNL

If the Sullivan article was correct, then Cedeno may be on his way out. I wouldn’t haphazardly dump Lee. I don’t think Cain is likely, but Jon Sanchez offers middle of the rotation potential that, if he struggled, could be a power lefty pen arm. Burriss offers a solid glove that should have enough offense for the position. Funny side note is that they got him as a result of us signing Scott Eyre. I could do without the PTBNL, but I would hold firm on Sanchez. I think, if they can’t find a veteran bat, they would be willing to at least ponder Sanchez. They would have to sell Lee on San Francisco, but it isn’t that hard. The NL West isn’t that strong, the Giants have the pitching depth and a solid farm system that should produce soon.

Now, you obviously can’t leave it at that. I have several scenarios worked out, one of them being a longer version using these two trades. But I’d be curious what folks said. Again, all in good fun.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm good with a) but think we can get a little better for b)

Although I question Burriss – is he better than Frandsen? Would you look at Schierholtz or Fr. Lewis for another lefty bat?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Burriss at short

Above average shortstop defensively, if not a plus glove in time, who can offer a solid avg/obp combination with some speed to boot. I’m not huge on Fred Lewis – platoon type, and I don’t think they move Schierholtz, though it’s just a guess.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the Orioles would do "a"...

(I don’t think that they would, because, if they decide to trade Roberts, they will have enough suitors to do better than that.)

…who would be your SS? Basically, the only possibilities I see are DeRo, Cedeño, or an outsider off the scrap heap like Juan Uribe or Adam Everett. Would you be OK with that?

BTW, you aren’t hijacking the thread. It’s all good discussion.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess

What I was trying to show with that trade was my perception that we don’t have the chips in the system itself to make a move, and that we might need to incorporate big league talent.

as for your 2nd part, well, I sorta meant for those two trades to go together. But I think I could be fine with Cedeno if the rest of the team is upgraded.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some Good Thoughts...

Nicely done. I can honestly say I wouldnt trade Rich Harden under any circumstances because so incredibly talented, but you laid out some intriguing possibilities.

I dont think Sabathias destination has any bearing on the Cubs offseason plans, as I dont see the Cubs trading any of their top starters to a team that may miss on CC.

Gaudin for Kelly Johnson wouldnt make sense unless DeRosa or Fontenot are dealt.

I wouldnt touch Louis Castillo, hes on the decline as well.

If youre gonna trade Ramirez to the Dodgers, Id hope to get Matt Kemp instead of Ethier, he has more power potential. The Dodgers are so proud of having produced so many young core guys at once, its hard to see them dealing either Ethier or Kemp.

Marshall and DeRosa for Roberts I would do in a second.

Hawpe would be a great addition, but Id have to check is away stats before Id do that deal. Marmol is one of the best relievers in the game, so he could bring back a nice bounty and maximizing on Hardens relatively healthy year might be smart, but I like him way too much to deal him.

I wouldnt trade Vitters at all, he’s the crown jewel. I wouldnt trade Pie for Swisher, Id do that deal if it werent with the White Sox though. If Pie succeeds, I hope its not in the Cell.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 8:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the input...

Kelly Johnson (and DeRo) can both play OF. It wouldn’t be ideal since KJ hasn’t shown much power, but it would be a LHB.

The reason I took Ethier over Kemp is that Ethier is a LHB. Perhaps the Cubs ask for a fourth prospect if they don’t think that is enough. It might be the starting point of a discussion…

Question on Hawpe/Harden: Assuming Harden stays relatively healthy this year, could the Cubs afford him next year on the FA market? Hawpe is signed through 2010 (2011 option), so you would be trading one year of Harden for two or three of Hawpe. And… the Rockies probably couldn’t afford Harden, so the Cubs could try re-signing him as a FA.

The reason I had Sabathia signing with the Yankees is that my Roberts, etc. scenarios are based on the Orioles not getting him, then trying to improve the offense to out-slug everyone. Angelos doesn’t know the meaning of the word “rebuild”, so he will try to add something.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I dont think the O’s are players for Sabathia if thats what youre talking about.

Well Lee will be off the books in ’11, so if they had Hawpe, theyd presumably have more money to play around with. I like Hawpe a lot, hes pretty overlooked b/c he plays along side Tulo and Holliday.

I guess I should temper my Harden expectations, its not as if he’s suddenly found a miracle cure for his shoulder, but hes just damn good, Itd be hard to imagine the rotation being better without him, unless of course they get another one.

I dont know that many players would resign with the team that traded them prior, but if you believe, like many do, that Harden is hanging on by a string, youd be inclined to deal him, much like the A’s did. But even if he only throws 150IP a year, theres not many guys who can give you a better 150….so perhaps Im biased b/c I like watching him play.

I think our biggest problem is the lead off and lack of lefties situation, but the whole league is aware of that, so it might be hard to get someone, like Ethier or Hawpe, on the cheap. Plus if the Rockies trade Holiday and Atkins, theyre gonna rely on Hawpe a great deal more than they do now….but I do like Hawpe a lot, he won me a fantasy title after all

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to read these as offers coming into the Cubs - in which case I get to make counter-offers.

Some of these counter-offers I don’t expect to be accepted.

1. Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts: I’ll consider it based on the return I can get for DeRosa.

2. Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts: No.

3. Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar: Yes.

4. Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson: Yes.

5. Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt: Aramis & Riot for Matt Kemp, Clay Kershaw, Chin-Lung Hu

6. Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol for Brad Hawpe: Harden and Marmol for Tulowitzki

7. Chad Gaudin for Luke Scott: No.

8. Jason Marquis for Luis Castillo: Marquis for nothing

9. Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn: Soriano for Winn and Sanchez

10. Rich Harden for Hank Blalock: No.

11. Josh Vitters for Brian Giles: Cedeno and Fontenot for Giles and Greene.

12. Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino: No way.

13. Felix Pie for Nick Swisher. If Lou’s the manager, yes, if not, no.

14. Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence: No way. Soto doesn’t get traded in-division. Here’s a diferent Soto offer for you, though: Soto and Riot for Br. Roberts, Wieters, Sherrill, and Ra Hernandez

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait a second...

Are you suggesting that the Dodgers would accept an Aramis Ramirez and Theriot for Matt Kemp and Clay Kershaw and Chin-Lung Hu trade or thats what youd counter with?

Kershaw is perhaps the best pitching prospect in the majors outside of David Price and Matt Kemp has 20+ Hr power and 30+SB speed

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're underselling Kemp's power potential there.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Either way, the Dodgers would be fools to take that deal

Thats why I was shocked to see you suggest it, my question was if that was a deal you would suggest at first or counter with?

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I responded to those deals if they were offers coming in and I gave counter-offers, which I didn't necessarily expect to be accepted.

I figure if Ned’s asking about Aramis, it’s worth testing him to see how far he’ll go.

And I’m not giving up a top 5 3B for nothing. Plus, Ned is just the kind of GM who would overvalue Theriot.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

If only Kemp was a lefty, thatd be perfect

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any trade...

…is hard to call because you would need to know what else is going on around that trade and what other plans may be tied to that trade.

All in all, for the first time in Hendry’s GM tenure, he has to look at the real possibility of trading a core piece of the current team, for something that leads to improving the club in general.

To make it as simple as possible; If the Cubs can accomplish these three priorities, they should be in pretty good shape:

1. Resign Dempster
2. Left handed bat with power
3. New leadoff man (I am completely done with Soriano there)

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 25, 2008 10:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Some of these trades are trying to get LHBs.

Would you be OK with Bobby Abreu or Ken Griffey in RF? If so, most of these trades would be pointless.

The leadoff batter question is equally tricky. Assuming the Furcal and Hudson sign elsewhere, who would be available? Roberts, but only if he rejects an extension — which I doubt. Kelly Johnson has batted leadoff for the Braves, but not very well. Yunel Escobar has batted leadoff with a bit more success, but he isn’t ideal for the spot. He would be an upgrade at SS. Castillo seems to be washed up.

If Lou weren’t so hard-headed (or “Name” dependent as DGU says), the Cubs could very easily put DeRo in the leadoff spot. They have the candidates; they just don’t have a manager with the balls to try them.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't share...

…your opinion that Lou has clear viable options besides Soriano in the leadoff spot. I am talking about a “real” leadoff hitter (one that is a LEGIT base stealing threat) etc. etc.. I will admit that 2 or 3 current players would be a better option than Soriano, but that would only be acceptable if you exhaust all means to do better.

Managers are always the easy target to assign blame (just like in the Dusty days) and the one that requires the least thought. Lou has flaws just like any manager does, but if you are searching for a reason this core group has failed the last two years, you need to dig a little bit further.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 25, 2008 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the thing.

Alfonso Soriano started 107 games last year. All but two of those were leading off. (The first two games of the season, both losses.)

In the 105 games that Soriano led off, the Cubs were 69-36. In the other 56 games, with other players leading off, the Cubs were 28-28.

Now, this is kind of a red herring, because in the other 56 games, the Cubs were mixing and matching, trying to fill the slot of an injured player. The Cubs were 5-11 with Ryan Theriot leading off, 7-7 with Kosuke Fukudome leading off, 1-2 with Mike Fontenot leading off, 3-1 (!) with Eric Patterson leading off, 12-6 with Reed Johnson leading off, and 0-1 with Felix Pie leading off.

This intrigues me. Maybe the Cubs could go with different leadoff hitters depending on matchups, even if they acquire another player or players who is the more “traditional” type of leadoff hitter.

At the same time, the team seems to win with Soriano leading off and unless you’re going to get him to spend time with a sports psychologist who will tell him why it would be better for him AND the team to hit 5th or 6th, you are going to have six years of a mopey player making $18 million a year.

None of us wants that.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess my definition of a good leadoff hitter is one who can consistently steal 1B.

I think that SBs are over-rated. With your premise, the only other candidate is Riot (or Dome, if he gets his act together).

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stolen bases...

…can be very timely, when you are in the playoffs facing good ptichers and trying to find ways to scrape up runs. There are simply times when it can be your best bet to grind out a run, when a run means a lot. If you eliminate this threat from this spot, it removes a dimension that may not be as vital during the regular season, but could pay dividends in the playoffs.

This is why I would prefer to get the leadoff guy from off the roster, if at all possible. If you can’t, you go with someone else on the roster besides Soriano.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 25, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, then...

… you could lead off Soriano during the regular season, when his presence there seems to help win games, and drop him in the order in the postseason.

It’s a radical idea — most managers wouldn’t think of doing that — but I think most of us agree that postseason games are played differently than regular season games. Maybe for the Cubs, winning them requires a change of lineup thinking.

Hey, nothing else is working. Why not try it?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suggested this idea a few weeks back...

…and didn’t get much of a reaction. But it’s a notion that makes a certain amount of sense to me.

For this to work, though, the team would really have to make some adjustments psychologically in the postseason. All I heard during the regular season was how Soriano “sparks” the offense – and that’s all well and good when there’s 162 games for his megastreakiness to play itself out. The problem in the postseason is that he’s facing ultrafocused, elite pitchers who are much less likely to make mistakes – and he’s facing them in short series. So there’s no time for his streakiness to be taken into account.

Thus, in the playoffs, the team would need to make a conscious effort NOT to look to Soriano for offensive leadership. He would need to bat fifth or sixth and keep a low profile while other players stepped up and focused on being patient and putting the ball in play.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 27, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think...

…you would ever see Soriano leadoff during the season and than change for the playoffs.

I really think (or maybe I just hope) his leadoff days are over.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 27, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I certainly don't have a problem...

…with Lou dropping him in the regular season. I just mean this would be a compromise to consider.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 27, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LHBs and Names

My read on the Cubs is that they want a LH bat for two out of the 1-5 spots. They’re probably going to have Dome (or maybe Pie) batting 8th, so it’s important that you can build a lineup card that doesn’t end up dumping several LHBs at the bottom. This is precisely why Griffey/Abreu/Ibanez seem so much more likely to me than Scott/Huff and even to an extent Hermida. How do you bat Luke Scott ahead of Soto, let alone Soriano? Luke Scott may very well hit a lot better next year than Griffey, but he’s not a proven RBI man.

This is also why I think that if Furcal makes it to the stage where he can negotiate with all teams, Jim Hendry will go after him with the same speed and determination that he went after Soriano. We won’t hear anything about that option until Furcal makes it to that stage, but if he does…

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Assuming that Furcal decides to test the market...

…and that he will listen to the Cubs’ offer…

… and that he signs (for probably $15M per)…

1. How would you clear payroll space? (Assuming they sign Demp, I think they will have less than $10M for Woody and the LHB and the leadoff man.) Whom would you trade?

2. What would you do with Riot?

3. What would you do for the LHB power hitter?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The money issues

I think they’ll be a bigger bump in salary than some expect.

1. Marquis can be dumped and replaced with a better pitcher in Gaudin.

2. I would trade Riot for whatever I can get back. I think Lou/Jim would trade DeRosa and install Riot at 2B.

3. There are cheaper LHB options like Hermida or Swisher; Jim can also backload another contract and keep putting things off.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting reads all

how about sign furcal and the riot for roberts

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 26, 2008 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Roberts will cost more than Riot.

But signing Furcal would be a big boon to the Cubs off-season given the goals we are hearing trickle out.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 26, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

Sorry I wrote that and in my head was thinking it would take more than just Theriot, but for some reason didn’t write it out.

I could really get use to hearing, “Furcal to Roberts for one, out at first for two!”

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 27, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I'd support...

about half off those trades, including any that involve Chad Gaudin. And yes, that includes Marmol for Hawpe.

However, any manager that arrives at Marquis for Castillo — at least without about 7 million sent back this way — or Vitters for Giles being a good idea should immediately be relieved of their cell phone and unsupervised trading ability.

by Damen Jackson on Oct 25, 2008 10:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lilly for Escobar and.............

…………Gaudin for Scott make some sense.

The Lilly deal frees up salary and Escobar is a legit SS. Marshall is waiting in the wings as a starter, and if Rich Hill is cogent, Lilly becomes all the more expendable.

I don’t think Scott is the answer we need for a LH outfielder, but given his salary and the fact that Gaudin can be replaced by existing parts, Scott is worth a look in RF.

As for the balance of the deals, I’m not sure they are worth pursuing, although the ARam for three players is intriguing.

"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns

by tville on Oct 25, 2008 11:22 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

And yet...

… Lilly has that bulldog attitude that all of us seem to want.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lilly's been a great team player for 2 years.

But “better to trade him a year too early than a year too late” has never been more true about someone than it is true of Ted Lilly right now. CC wants to sign early. Once he does, Ted’s 2/24 is going to look so cheap for a guy who’s been a solid #2 for two years running. We won’t even need to wait long in the off-season to trade him. Ted Lilly may be our best trade chip.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken.

But then, you have to replace him. Not so easily done, I think.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pitching is King though...

If the team is in a win now mode, it’d be hard imagine them deal Lilly, whos been great in his two years with the team for a SS, when we have a “serviceable” short stop (offensively anyway).

Afterall, Theodore has won over 30 games for the Cubs in two years.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as the Cubs haven't developed a bad reputation in the Japanese player world

they’ve looked at Koji Uehara in seasons past and he’s finally coming over. Kenshin Kawakami, too, would be a good option. And since it seems like Fukudome’s staying, getting another Japanese player on the team can only be a good thing for him.

Even if we fail to land a pitcher by acquisition, we just don’t dump Marquis and stick with an in-house option.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was worried about that too...

But it didnt hurt the Yankees after the Hideki Irabu fiasco.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.

I like Lilly and what he’s done to date, but the Cubs seemingly have arms on the way and could always move up via free agency, if Marshall/Hill/Veale/Gaudin/Marquis/etc. don’t pan out.

Having Harden on board makes this a much easier move, and if Dempster returns, it seems like Lilly would be a prime trade target as he’d bring quality in return.

Meanwhile, the Braves need starting pitching and Lilly could replace Glavine/Hampton from the left side without breaking the bank.

"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns

by tville on Oct 25, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you get rid of Lilly, one of the lesser guys has to move up

Do you really want Marquis to make more starts? Or rely on two spot starters in Marshall and Gaudin, the latter who hardly has Lous confidence.

It seems most of the prized arms coming up are relievers as well.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Move Lilly and

get a cheaper arm in Uehara. That’s my plan. Why wouldn’t another team do that themselves? Lilly’s more of a known quantity and has only two years on his contract.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats a gamble

We’ve seen what happens when you assume a Japanese players stats will automatically translate, particularly in the first season.

Im not saying the Braves wouldnt want Lilly, Im saying giving trading him away might not be the best idea for the Cubs

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We can gamble

with our depth.

The only downside I see with trading Lilly is that it’s possible Lilly could retake the #3 playoff spot from Dempster. But I also feel like it’s possible that Sean Marshall could be better than both Lilly and Dempster, let alone that also being true for the two Japanese imports.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ted Lilly isn't going anywhere

He’s a quality and consistent veteran starting pitcher and happens to have the extra benefit of being a lefty. Signed to a good contract too.

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 25, 2008 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

You think Marshall could outperform Dempster? While I don’t believe Dempster true talent level is as high as this year’s numbers make it appear, I don’t believe it’s that far off. Looking at his peripherals on FanGraphs, he changed his pitching approach this year. He relied more on his fastball and threw less sliders and changeups. His velocity is down a bit, but he seems to get some better movement. The biggest changes in his results were a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate giving him a 2.46 K/BB as opposed to his career rate of 1.69. He generated the usual amount of GB, FB and LD while getting only slightly lucky in the HR department. He should be able to finish next year with a low-mid 3 ERA, which is right around where he should have ended this year.
For a more detailed look into Dempster’s performance, check out this BP article. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8140

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 9:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let me be more specific.

I think in the context of the playoffs that the odds Ted Lilly could be a better #3 than Dempster are about as good as that Sean Marshall could be a better #3 than Dempster. The comparison is more about Marshall and Lilly in a one-month time frame than about Dempster and Lilly/Marshall.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh.

Yes, thats entirely possible. Probable, I don’t think so. But very possible.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Giving Lilly Away?

The proposition with the Braves involved getting Escobar in return. He’s a bona fide MLB SS and will be 26 years old on Opening Day 2009.

Hmm……….doesn’t seem like the Cubs are giving Lilly away.

Ya gotta give somethin’ to get somethin’. Lilly’s our best “toss in” currently.

"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns

by tville on Oct 25, 2008 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So tell me......

……with Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Marshall and Marquis as the Front Five, where is the glaring weak spot in that rotation?

That 4/5 will likely be the best in the NL, much like the Cubs dominated from these positions in 2008.

Meanwhile, Lilly has serious value as a trade candidate. Look past the end of the dugout and move forward.

"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns

by tville on Oct 25, 2008 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of these scenarios have problems.

1. Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts.

2. Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts.

Why would the Orioles want high-priced veterans? For 2 or 1 years respectively? They’re rebuilding and will want players with minimal service time in return.

3. Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar.

I don’t think that’s enough to get Escobar. He’ll likely be part of an eventual Peavy trade anyway.

4. Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson.

I’m not sure why we need Kelly Johnson.

5. Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt.

I would do this but I doubt the Dodgers would. They’d be taking on payroll and opening up 2 holes in the lineup.

9. Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn.

Winn would be a salary dump situation. Derosa would have very high positive trade value. I think you could get more for him than an aging average outfielder.

10. Rich Harden for Hank Blalock.

Why do we want Hank Blalock??

11. Josh Vitters for Brian Giles.

That’s waaaaayy too much to pay for a 38 year old with one year left on his contract.

12. Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino.

The price for Victorino would be much, much higher than that. Look what we gave up to get those 2 players – and consider that their value is slightly lower now (both have less contract left, both have battled injuries to end the season).

13. Felix Pie for Nick Swisher.

Sure, I would do this. But I just don’t think the White Sox would want another toolsy outfielder with questionable upside.

14. Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence.

That one is more interesting, but I think just because of position, Soto’s a lot more valuable (and a lot harder to replace).

by Wreckard on Oct 25, 2008 12:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why would the Orioles want 2 high-priced veterans?

Because Angelos isn’t smart enough to rebuild. He always wants to compete. If he can’t get enough pitching, he’ll try to out-slug teams. They might think that two years of Derrek Lee in that band-box would be much better than one year of Roberts — there are 2B around. It doesn’t solve their SS problem unless they take Cedeño — whom they didn’t want last year.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm an Orioles fan as well as a Cubs fan

…so I follow them pretty closely. And I will say: the modus operandi has changed distinctly since McPhail took over. They’re an organization that’s multiple years from competing, in the toughest division in all of baseball, with a new concentration on development.

I’m not saying that Angelos doesn’t still have an influence on operations there, but it seems more and more like McPhail is calling the shots. This will be a very telling off-season for them though.

by Wreckard on Oct 25, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Blalock (when healthy) is a LHB with legit power

Getting him would necessitate another trade — perhaps DLee to SF in Al’s scenario or to the O’s for Roberts.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually think that's overpaying for Victorino

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 26, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here goes.

1) I would do Lee for Roberts and slide Dero over to first base. The gains wouldn’t be huge, but it would free up some payroll and fill a need in the batting order.
2) Probably not. I think Marshall is a pretty valuable starter and gives us good insurance when Harden goes down.
3) I might trade Lilly for Yunel, although I doubt Atlanta would do that.
4) See 3. No way Atlanta gives him away for that little.
5) I wouldn’t call Aramis Ramirez untouchable, but I would need to get legitimate blue chippers in return. Ethier is good, but I doubt he’s as good as his second half numbers.
6) No way.
7) That wouldn’t be a bad move.
8) No way. It’s not that Marquis is that good, but Castillo is pretty useless these days.
9) Both are good players, but I would stick with DeRo.
10) Not a chance.
11) I like Giles, but I don’t see any scenario of him leaving San Diego via trade. Either he re-ups with them for next year or he goes for free agency. It’s a team option, but I think he will have a little say in the matter.
12) Thats an interesting one. I could go either way on that one. Victorino fills a major need.
13) I don’t want Swisher as my center fielder, and I would still keep Pie for another year.
14) A lot of fans don’t realize how poor of a season Pence had this year. His VORP was 11.1 over 600+ AB’s. He has solid power but has no AVG/OBP skills at this point, and his peripherals back up that assessment. Conversely, Soto had a 39.3 VORP over 563 AB’s and is a catcher. I think the answer is a resounding NO.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 12:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

There's a rumor Phil Rogers started about us going after Adrian Gonzalez.

Devin Hester, you are ridiculous! -Jeff Joniak

by ARAM FOR MVP on Oct 25, 2008 5:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

With our farm system?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That wouldn't be the first time

Phil Rogers and rumor were mentioned in the same sentence. More often than not, ridiculous/crazy/stupid finds it’s way into that sentence as well.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Rogers wrote

“The Cubs are on the list of teams for which Jake Peavy will waive his no-trade clause. This doesn’t look like a fit, but don’t be surprised if Jim Hendry tries to put together a package that would include a swap of first basemen, Derrek Lee and Adrian Gonzalez, who is supposedly untouchable.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-26-rogers-whispers,0,102815.story

The idea of landing Adrian Gonazlez AND Jake Peavy makes that all the more ludicrous. Landing 1 of them is already very unlikely, even in an all in. Would be wonderful to dream about. I feel like, my own opinion, that Rogers gets snookered by his “sources”. Just a shaky track record off the top of my head with Rogers and his whispers/predictions and so forth.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Id take Gonzalez, if given the choice b/t the two.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats only possible if Rogers even has sources.

I wouldn’t be surprised if A) His source-driven articles are merely pure speculation or B) His sources are guys from bars he frequents.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Rogers sits around with rosters...

… and tries to make “matches” sort of like a fantasy team. In what world would the Padres want Derrek Lee?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 26, 2008 4:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

One possibility

Is if the Padres want Lee to be a box-office draw during their rebuilding as a native S. Cali guy and product of their system (originally) and they see him as a good role model for the young players the Padres are mixing in.

But I agree, it’s not likely. Lee might approve a deal to SD, but they would have to give up a boatload to get both Padre players. I’m not sure if Lee, Marshall, Vitters, Pie, and Gaudin would even be enough.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by zambranofan on Oct 26, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Lee

but I’m not sure why Adrian Gonzalez doesn’t fit that role for a third the cost.

As much as we may try and explain this “rumor,” any baseball-realm explanation we come up with won’t be more likely than this: Phil Rogers is running an experiment to see how much utter nonsense his editor will let get printed. His next “rumor” will be: Cardinals considered trading Pujols for Lee; deal held up when Cubs refused to include Marquis

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 26, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

Would you make any or all of the following trades?

1. Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts…Yes, but Orioles wouldn’t

2. Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts…God no.

3. Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar….Atlanta would never do this despite the fact that Lilly is a quality and reliable starter.

4. Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson….Atlanta would never do this.

5. Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt….Put down the hookah..

6. Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol for Brad Hawpe….Again, drugs destroy minds.

7. Chad Gaudin for Luke Scott…Yes.

8. Jason Marquis for Luis Castillo….No, Castillo is all used up.

9. Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn….God no.

10. Rich Harden for Hank Blalock….God no.

11. Josh Vitters for Brian Giles….God no.

12. Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino…No.

13. Felix Pie for Nick Swisher…One yuck for another yuck equal yuck

14. Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence….No

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 25, 2008 8:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It has been touched on

But there is no possible way the O’s would do Roberts for Lee. Sure, we want a first baseman, but a 33 year old, 20-25 HR, two year guy is not what Baltimore is aiming for. The Orioles are not gearing up for a run in 2009; 2011 is more like it.

Don’t be so sure that Roberts is a one year rental; the guy is looking to play on a team that wins first and foremost. Although I don’t think he’ll take a pay cut to stay on a contending club, he isn’t a money whore like Teixiera, and he would stick it out with the Cubs if they offered money in the same ballpark as other teams. I honestly think that he could be invaluable to the Cubs, but I wish the O’s would have taken five prospects for him.

Giles for Vitters? Giles is going to be 38, why would you trade away an elite prospect in a weak system for him?

Soto for Pence is almost prospect for prospect, but why would you flip your stud catcher, who projects to hit for a higher average, for a right fielder who looks to slug lower and have an overall lower OBP?

I’d do Scott for Gaudin.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 26, 2008 12:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Assume the Cubs trade Vitters for Giles.

Also assume that I could guarantee that :

1. Giles would lead the Cubs to the World Series title in 2009, and

2. Giles would then retire, and

3. Vitters would go on to have a career equal to Aramis Ramírez’s;

Would you (as a Cub fan) favor the trade?

Flipping Soto for Pence is flipping a RHB for a LHB.

Assuming that you are an O’s fan…

Would you take Theriot, Fontenot (or Cedeño), Marshall, and Ascanio for Roberts?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 12:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pence is a RH batter

No way do you trade a good OF’er straight up for an All-Star catcher.

by rlpete on Oct 26, 2008 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have to be at least a little bit concerned about your future; Vitters is clearly the best prospect in your otherwise atrocious system. Although the guy may be blocked by Ramirez for the foreseeable future, you can still get a lot more value for Vitters than Brian Giles. I mean, if I could trade for any player knowing that he would guarantee a title, of course I’d do it. However, Giles alone would most certainly not put the Cubs over the top.

Soto excels at the plate in a position where plus hitters are extremely hard to come by, I just wouldn’t trade him for Pence. An above average corner outfielder is not rare.

To be honest, I would take any four reasonable prospects for BRob. Although Roberts is arguably a top five leadoff hitter right now, he is of no use to the Orioles. We are building for 2010, and a 33 year old lead off hitting second baseman just would not factor in to our plans when (if) we are finally contending. If I remember correctly, Theriot/Fontenot are around 28, which is a tad old, but still perfectly acceptable because we have major holes at those two positions with NO ONE coming up. Marshall is a nice addition and Ascanio is essentially a throw in. That deal seems fair to me, because I honestly believe that the Cubs would have no problem resigning BRob, but if anything the deal slightly favors Baltimore. If this offer was put on the table, I think MacPhail would have a hard time turning it down, and most O’s fans would be fairly content with the haul.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 26, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the deal is Theriot, Fontenot, Ascanio, and Marshall, I'm inclined to say that's too much.

Can we do Theriot, Fontenot, Ceda, and Ascanio?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 26, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't Baltimore need SPs more than RPs?

If you don’t want to give up Marshall (whom I don’t like as much as you do), Veal or Gaudin might work better for them — though I wouldn’t give up both Gaudin and Ascanio.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take

1. Derrek Lee for Brian Roberts: I would but Baltimore won’t (and they won’t likely get Texeira either.)

2. Mark DeRosa and Sean Marshall for Brian Roberts: Absolutely not. The search for a leadoff hitter isn’t this bad.

3. Ted Lilly for Yunel Escobar: Interesting and I’d consider it but Marshall won’t come close to filling Lilly’s spot.

4. Chad Gaudin for Kelly Johnson: Atlanta would not make this deal.

5. Aramis Ramírez for Cory Wade, Andre Ethier, and Blake DeWitt: I’m not a Ethier fan but it’s an interesting idea. Wade is likely a flash in the pan and I’m not sure about DeWitt.

6. Rich Harden and Carlos Marmol for Brad Hawpe: No.

7. Chad Gaudin for Luke Scott: Yes.

8. Jason Marquis for Luis Castillo: Absolutely not. The Mets would make this in a second.

9. Mark DeRosa for Randy Winn: Please no.

10. Rich Harden for Hank Blalock: Another big no.

11. Josh Vitters for Brian Giles: Your search for an outfielder is getting desparate.

12. Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin for Shane Victorino: No.

13. Felix Pie for Nick Swisher: Problem is I suspect that Swisher is not a long-term CF’er. Not sure I understand this one.

14. Geovany Soto for Hunter Pence: An All-Star catcher for a good outfielder. No.

by rlpete on Oct 26, 2008 8:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Comments

Lilly v. Marshall – the big difference between these guys the past two years has been innings. If you believe Lilly has turned a corner and can continue to provide innings, then, no, Marshall doesn’t come close to filling Lilly’s spot. On the other hand if you believe Marshall turned a corner this year, and Lilly’s career #s make it seem impossible he can do three seasons in a row like this, then Marshall may actually be a better bet for 2009.

Swisher – I think the idea is Swish plays RF and Dome plays CF.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 26, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Swisher

If that is the idea, no. I’d want more offense than Swisher in RF if Dome moves to CF.

by rlpete on Oct 27, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we bought on Swisher, we'd be hoping he returns to his Oakland level of production.

In 2006 and 2007, Swish had OPS+es of 125 and 127. To compare, Bobby Abreu last had an OPS+ of 126 in 2006, getting a 120 this year. Ibanez was at 124 this year. Adam Dunn was at 129. So, Swisher, if he got back to his previous level, would be as good, if not better, than the best options on the free agent market.

Certainly, there’s a risk with Swisher, but I’d feel about as optimistic with him as I would be with Ibanez, whose age could sap a lot away real quick. At least Swisher is just 28.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 27, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is OPS+ park adjusted?

If not, we’d be hoping for even better from Swisher as Oakland’s yard is terrible for hitters. Adam Dunn played in a hitter’s paradise.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 27, 2008 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swisher went from a bad hitter's park...

…. where he hit well, to a GOOD hitter’s park (the Cell) where he hit poorly.

Try to figure THAT one out.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OPS+ is park adjusted.

That’s what makes it a nice eyball stat when considering trades. Of course, Jim Hendry will want to do the full homework and ask questions like – does Ibanez’ swing fit Seattle so that you can’t expect much more from him coming out of that park than you would your normal Seattle hitter changing teams?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 27, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2, 3, 7, 13 Yes

The rest…variable degrees of heck no. that said, I think #2 is the only one that has a chance of happening, and we may be giving up too much. I doubt Gaudin would be enough for Scott and Lilly for Escobar doesn’t seem likely (though that would rock, if the Braves decided they wanted to get better pitching quickly), and someone else would have to go with Pie for Swisher. But the Swisher trade I think is an idea that should be considered.

I really don’t think the Braves will deal Escobar, but they could trade Brent Lillibridge, maybe for under value. Someone like Mitch Atkins plus an A-ball position player, perhaps..

by PrincetonCubs on Oct 26, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Orioles

Would not trade Roberts for an above average pitcher and a 34 year old utility guy. Scott wouldn’t take more than Gaudin and one average prospect; there are two guys in Baltimore who could pretty easily take Scott’s spot in the lineup, plus the guy is going to be 31.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 26, 2008 7:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Meant as a reply

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Oct 26, 2008 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not lefty

but with all the talks about Colorado trading Matt Holliday, what would it take for the Cubs to land him?

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 26, 2008 8:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't have a good read on the Rockies FO...

Rumor here is that they will trade either Atkins or Holliday, but not both. They would prefer to trade Atkins, because they have a fine replacement ready (Ian Stewart).

If they were to trade Holliday, I would guess that they would want a pre-arb, power-hitting OF and/or several A-level prospects. They have several good, young OFs, but no one with Holliday’s power. They are also always looking for young, top-flight SPs. I don’t think the Cubs and Rockies are a good match unless they get a third team involved.

Also, in case you haven’t seen much of Holliday, he is a worse OF than Sori. I would rather not have either in RF.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about this trade? and then...

lee for stephen drew? we get a better hitting ss and he is a lh hitter. there would prolly have to be some other guys involved to make this trade, maybe from us theroit and from the d-backs a middle relief guy or a young starter?

then we either give hofapauir a chance at 1b or we go after dunn? dunn kicks ass at wrigley and we add another lh bat.

just a thought!

by bassncubs10 on Oct 26, 2008 10:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd make that trade in a heartbeat, but there is no way the Snakes do it.

The Snakes have Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy at 1B.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

CoJack has played some OF before

So maybe they wouldnt be averse to that

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 27, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No chance Arizona goes for that one.

Not only is Drew coming off of an enormously productive season, he is young and has lots more room to grow. To top that off, the Diamondbacks already have two first basemen who are as good or better than Lee, those being Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy, the former being the player that they wouldn’t include in a deadline deal for Texiera. If they wouldn’t throw him in there for Tex, why would the trade for Lee?

by dakoose on Oct 26, 2008 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs