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An Unlikely 2009 Scenario

Let me first state loudly - no I don't think this is happening.  It was just a scenario I worked up based off a couple trade idea I posted in another thread, and I had some spare time, so I finished the scenario off as best and quickly as I could.  Haven't really pondered it all that much.  Again, this ain’t happening, just for fun.  Figured I’d see what folks said.  

I don't think Fukudome is going anywhere.  That is, I think that's a cost we are going to have to carry, and thus, we need to hope he improves.

Sorry on the formatting.  Cut and paste and too lazy to go through it right now.

 

Trade for Brian Roberts - I think Roberts price will be higher than last year's.

Baltimore gets:  Theriot, Fontenot (cheap middle infield that can help now), Rich Hill (Alan Dunn connection), and a low-level prospect

Chicago gets:  Brian Roberts and a low-level prospect

I think Roberts price will be higher than last year’s … if he is even available.  Maybe they ask for a better chip than a low-level prospect, but my thinking is that using Theriot as a piece could blunt some of the overall prospect demands.  I’m not sure we have the assets to make a deal without using someone like Theriot in the package.  Too lazy to ponder PTBNL’s right now, although I’m not thinking anything high end on both sides.  Oh, I think Baltimore is one of the few clubs that might ponder Theriot at short, considering their lack of options at the position.

                Trade Derrek Lee to San Francisco

San Francisco gets:  Derrek Lee and Ronny Cedeno

Chicago gets: Jonathan Sanchez, Emmanuel Burriss, and an average prospect (hmm … Benjamin Snyder?)

I don’t think Cain is an option, but I think, depending on how the market shakes out, they might listen on Jon Sanchez.  I wouldn’t shake on Sanchez – I like Sanchez (good power lefty arm that can be a mid-rotation guy (basically what we hoped Veal might develop into but hasn’t) or a power pen arm) and we aren’t dumping Lee.  Ronny Cedeno, if Paul Sullivan’s end of the year article was correct, may be on his way out.  Burris won’t be a superstar, but could have enough offense at short with a solid glove.  Funny side note is that they got Burris for us signing Eyre.  Cedeno gives them a young shortstop to work with to replace Burris, and arguably with higher upside than Burriss.

 

                Let Henry Blanco go.  Save the 2.7 million if it’s necessary.  Koyie Hill is 

                fine for a backup catcher.

 

               Trade for Jeremy Hermida. 

I know, the reports on Hermida aren’t all that exciting.  That said, I still see a very talented player that struggled at home this year, and someone worth gambling on.  I wonder if he simply had a gigantic drop in confidence.  I’m not sure if we have enough to win a bid, but I imagine the following might be a competitive bid, and for now, I’ll just imagine that a competitive bid can win it.  It might take Pie, although I wonder if they lean to Colvin, with the idea that Maybin handles CF.

Marlins gets:  Jose Ceda, Tyler Colvin, and Robert Hernandez (contemplated Castillo here, but leaning towards the Marlins going with arms, and Hernandez is a decent looking young arm, even with the PED cloud – again all hypothetical).

Cubs get:  Jeremy Hermida

 

               Sign Adam Dunn for first base. 

 

               I’m not too gung ho on Dunn, but in this version, the team has reshaped itself and adding a power bat is a strong thought.  If I knew what to expect out of Ibanez, I might prefer him, as he’s likely cheaper, but I don’t know what to expect out of Dunn.

               Trade for Scott Hairston and move Marquis

I’m looking for a cheap and versatile righty bat off the bench.  Scott Hairston can move all around, and he certainly has some pop.

San Diego gets:  Jason Marquis and cash

Chicago gets:  Scott Hairston

Would they do this deal?  I think they might, if we eat around 3-4 million of Marquis’ contract.  He buys them a serviceable starter for a year, as 2009 will be a rebuilding year for them.  At the cost of a utility player?  It seems reasonable to me.

                Trade Mark DeRosa

Huge DeRo fan.  Don’t want to do this, but want to save some money.  I think every team would have interest, so I’m just picking one random one right now.

Los Angeles Dodgers get:  Mark DeRosa

Chicago Cubs get:  Chin-lung Hu and a solid prospect (Josh Bell?)

I think the Dodgers would definitely be interested in a versatile asset like DeRosa, whom they could perhaps pencil in at 3rd base but move him around.  Hu’s a good defensive shortstop, giving us a 2nd young guy to toy with.  I’d also ask for a solid prospect, maybe a Josh Bell.  I do expect the Dodgers to resign Furcal, and with DeJesus in the pipeline, Hu doesn't have a spot.  With Gallagher likely ahead of Bell now, Bell's role in the system diminishes.

 

                Non-tender Wuertz and Cotts to save money.  Doubtful that you could net anything on either guy, so non-tendering them seems fine.

                Sign a veteran shortstop to backup Burriss, with Hu sent to AAA.  Pick one:  Berroa?  Cintron?

 

 

C:  Geovany Soto

1st: Adam Dunn

2nd:  Brian Roberts

SS:  Emmanuel Burriss

3rd:  Aramis Ramirez

RF:  Jeremy Hermida

CF:  Fukudome (goes into the year in a platoon with Reed)

LF:  Alfonso Soriano

5 man bench:  Koyie Hill, Micah Hoffpauir, Reed Johnson, Scott Hairston, Veteran MI that can handle short

Hill’s fine as a backup catcher, Hoffpauir/ offers some pop off the bench from both sides.  Johnson offers a versatile OF backup, and  Burriss offers the shortstop depth that can start.  I’d give Cora solid money to come here to backup Burriss and act as a mentor.

One possible lineup:

1.  Roberts

2.  Burriss/Fukudome or Johnson

3.  Ramirez

4.  Dunn

5.  Soriano

6.  Hermida

7.  Soto

8.  Fukudome or Johnson/Burriss

There's good pop from 3-7 in the lineup, with some speed at the top, particularly if Burriss can continue to develop.

 

           SP:  Harden, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, and Gaudin

I think Hendry will keep Dempster.  I’m fine with Marshall or Gaudin as the 5th starter.  Leaning Gaudin.

Bullpen:  Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Jonathan Sanchez, Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, Sean Marshall

I want a dominant pen to lean on.  Keeping Kerry Wood gives us the best shot at a dominant pen.  Give him a 2 year deal with easy incentives to trigger a 3rd year.  After all, if Wood is healthy and dominant, you can live with that third year.  With Wood, this could be a dominant pen.  Everyone besides Gaudin and Marshall could pop it in the mid-90’s.  If we wanted to save Gaudin’s money and ship him off and use Randy Wells, I’d be fine with that as well.  Without Wood, you’d have to add at least 1 veteran arm, if not 2, and hope people slot into their roles.  Marshall/Wells/Sanchez can all be stretched out.  Shark/Guzman/Sanchez could be 7th inning power arms, with Sanchez utilized as a mix and match throughout the late innings in key games.

2009 Loose 25 man Payroll Estimation:  Ugh, I’m looking at this, and I’m coming up around 140 million if you backload deals.

Anyhow, just for fun.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Interesting

What happened to Pie in this scenario?

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 8:52 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Um

Hanging around. I really only took about 10 minutes to finish this after coming up with the Lee/Roberts trades. Didn’t really think much on what happened to Pie.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the Lineup, not the rotation

I think we can do better than Jonathan Sanchez, hes way too erratic to rely on, and if youre gonna trade a guy of Lees caliber for Sanchez, wouldnt you want to maximize his return by starting him?

If you can get Hermida while getting rid of Colvin thatd be great, as I dont see Colvin being a great contributor and he’s ceiling is probably somewhat like Hermida is now.

Call me crazy, but I think Marquis would be a better number 5 than Gaudin, leave Gaudin in the pen.

I do like that lineup a lot though, again a lot would hinge on Fukudome though, which is unsettling.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 8:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Re:

In this unlikely scenario, Jon Sanchez is in the pen to be a power lefty pen arm for 2009. I think you can live with it for 2009. He could get a shot in 2010 in the rotation. I’m fine with Sanchez starting but that means spending assets to get a LOOGY.

I’m fine with a lot of internal options as the 5th starter, in mock scenarios and in real life. I think Gaudin would be just fine, and I’m okay with Marquis. That said, the one thought in my head when I made this scenario was the payroll and to be wary of it, which is why I “gave up” some guys I really like, Blanco, DeRosa. In Marquis’ case, I’m not a huge fan of him so I was more open to the idea of getting rid of half or so of that contract if it can help you make some other moves. But I’m fine with Jason as the 5th guy. People overrated the role of the backup catcher and the 5th starter.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yuck

"I'm petrified of nipple chafing. Once it starts, it's a vicious circle." Andy Bernard

by TXCub on Oct 25, 2008 9:22 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

definitely a step backwards

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 25, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Very curious

Again, I don’t expect this to happen. I just got tired of seeing ridiculous Lee and Roberts trades where we either get a ton for Lee, or we don’t give up much for Roberts. Value-wise, the chances of us landing Roberts through the system is very slim. Personally, as I’ve noted before, I think Roberts re-ups with Baltimore. I also don’t like Dunn there but didn’t know which lefty bat to stick. Maybe I’ll rethink Ibanez, who would be cheaper. I’ll get around to posting a semi-realistic scenario soon, but I’m very curious why “yuck”. Looking at this team for it’s own merits, and not the fact that it won’t happen, but just on paper

a) Speed/OBP at the top of the order – Roberts/Burriss would be a solid 1/2 punch.
b) Power in the middle
c) Deep lineup with Soto batting 7th
d) Deep bench, with righty/lefty pop (Micah/Scott), versatile pieces
e) Solid rotation (I mean, let’s be honest, the chances of Hendry resigning Dempster is awfully high)
f) Deep and versatile pen

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Roberts

I can’t imagine Jim Hendry will spend a long time on this again, not with Orlando Hudson available and DeRosa on roster. But your scenario makes sense. If the O’s like a combo of our middle IF, we could get something done. I hope that someone, somewhere will overvalue Theriot and Fontenot and Jim will be happy to take whatever they offer.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be stunned

if we land Orlando Hudson. So many teams are rumored after him. To be honest, I’m wary of Hudson in that, I think people are expecting Orlando Hudson to post offensive numbers close to what he did last year, but he’s got splits that worry the heck out of me.

That said, so many teams are after him. I’ll be surprised if we land him. In my “semi-realistic” scenario, DeRosa is still at 2nd base for us.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I share your concerns on Orlando Hudson

who has always had a favorable home park to play in. I simply think that Hendry’s going to look at the other options and refuse to get trapped bidding for a long time on Roberts again.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be honest

I have a feeling that, if Furcal is off the market early, as I expect, that Hendry may turn his leadoff focus squarely on Roberts.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You might be right.

The problem is that there aren’t many lead-off hitters who fit the mold that Hendry/Lou appear to be looking for.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I posted my "real" thoughts below

I won’t be surprised if Theriot is leading off.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

How do u put Dempster as

#4? Overall, I think this would be a step back. NO to Dunn, no to the Burris guy. I love Hermida on the other hand.

"I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying" - Michael Jordan, the one and only...

by LPLancer23 on Oct 25, 2008 10:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not huge on Burriss, but

Forget this scenario as a whole for moment. In terms of Burriss specifically, I like him enough in real life. I think he’ll have an above average glove at short and in time, could provide Ryan Theriot-like numbers (solid avg/obp, poor slugging).

I look at this a few hours later and wonder if I should’ve saved some imaginary cash and put Raul Ibanez in at first instead of Dunn.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, btw

Who’s 4 then? It’s the same 4 guys we had this year, and a healthy Harden and Z are ahead of Dempster for me entering 2009. That leaves Lilly, so I guess you can flip that around. Anyhow, that wasn’t an “order”.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm working backwards on the posts

So I posted in cwyers as well. Again, I fully admit at the beginning I was just messing around with things after “mocking” two trades in Lee and Roberts that I found more realistic than anything I’ve seen online yet. I’ll post a semi-realistic (I mean, nothing is realistic) scenario soon. That said, 4th place? Really folks? Deep bullpen, solid rotation, speed and OBP at the top of the order, power in the middle, depth in the lineup. I don’t know if I see a first place team, but 4th?

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ugh...

The worst part is getting rid of DeRosa, plus who backs up Ramirez? No thank you.

Also, Hill is not a suitable replacement for Blanco, perhaps the best backup catcher in the game.

"Prince Fielder Dies Of Inside-The-Park Homerun" - The Onion

by DTJchris on Oct 25, 2008 11:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Again

I don’t think people are realizing how tight our payroll will be. As I fully admitted at the beginning of the post, I made this in about 10 minutes of time, although I think my trades are a tad more “realistic” in value than many others. That said, the general point was to show that adjusting for what we might need (lefty power, top of the order hitter to move Soriano down) might take creativity and clear payroll. I absolutely love DeRosa. I think he has been the most valuable member of the team (not most important, but most valuable), but there certainly exists the possibility that clearing off DeRosa/Blanco’s 8.2 million will be necessary to make moves to upgrade this club.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

I was thinking that someone like Angel Berroa could slot in there as the backup at 3rd. Scott Hairston plays some 2nd, so trying him at 3rd (don’t think he’s played that since the minors) would be a thought.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think most of us here have a better shot at a date with Cameron Diaz...

…than this scenario playing out as written.

That said… fourth place team? Seriously?

by cwyers on Oct 25, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

really?

I’m very surprised you see a 4th place team there cwyers. Again, this ain’t happening, I was just messing around with the things after mocking up a Lee and Roberts trade that I found more realistic than anyone else has done. But strong pen, speed/on base at the top of the lineup, power in the middle, deep lineup, deep bench. I don’t see a 4th place team. Not saying I see a first place team, but 4th place?

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see

The Brewers, Astros and Cardinals all having better teams on paper then this on paper Cubs team. Hence the “Welcome to 4th Place” :)

by Galvan316 on Oct 25, 2008 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno if I see that

I don’t see how you can definitively see that right now.

First off, again, I don’t think this scenario happens, it was just for fun, but I think you understood that. On paper, I think this team would be better than what we had this year overall, a more versatile offensive unit that was still deep and had good pop, along with a better bench. Add in a balanced lineup, a stronger pen (Shark improving and Sanchez offering us a LOOGY) and even if you expect Dempster to regress a bit, on paper, this team could compensate.

But let’s skip past that for a moment.

Brewers – Young rotation. Gallardo and Parra could be good … but they could also struggle. I’m actually huge on both guys long range future, but to expect them to be dominant studs next year is unlikely. They have back end junk (Bush/Suppan), and they still need a middle of the rotation starter. Even if they find one, it’s still a shaky rotation with a pen that has to find a dominant back end. The lineup could be better, but it could also regress. Let’s say they deal for a stud pitcher like Cain (I don’t think it happens unless the Brewers go crazy and offer up Fielder/Hardy). Gamel and Escobar are good, but to expect them to replicate the offensive production is iffy. By no means am I saying the Brewers will be bad. Rather, I don’t see how you can definitively argue that they are better.

Cardinals – Shaky rotation. Honestly, no additions to that rotation is the rumored plan right now. That’s shaky. They aren’t supposedly making a splash in the pen either. MAybe a couple veterans arms, but there’s no KRod (I do like Chris Perez, though). Duncan should mold a decent unit, but this isn’t going to be a top pitching staff unless a lot of folks have career years or Mozeliak gets a bit risky. I think Ludwick can be fine, but it would be fair to expect Ludwick, Schumaker to perhaps regress a tiny bit. Short of it is, I think they’ll be competitive, but I fail to see how the Cardinals are definitively better.

Astros – Where’s the pitching? Much as they made a valiant late year run, where’s the pitching to definitively push them over? I don’t see it. I think they’ll compete.

I would toss the Reds into that mix as well.

Again, just for fun, but I don’t see this 4th place team that you are suggesting.

by toonsterwu on Oct 26, 2008 1:14 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

JMO...

Suppan isn’t “junk”. The Brewers were just stupid enough to sign a good ground-ball pitcher and back him up with a Little League defense.

I will agree that Bush make Jason Marquis seem like Cy Young.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you have been

playing a bit too much fantasy baseball. I doubt any team in the history of sports has had such an eventful off-season as the one you described in your post.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 11:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ha

agreed. I’ll get around to posting my offseason scenario soon.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't get it.

Even when a post has “unlikely” in the title, this charge of unrealism comes out. Of course anytime a fan speculates on trades it’s by definition unrealistic. We can try and think about what Ned Colletti or Brian Sabean might want, but we don’t know those men or all of the swiriling perspectives in their front offices. Sabean may look at Burriss and think he’s a future star.

It’s still fun as fans to speculate, and sometimes we even come closer than we’d expect. I remember pre-Harden the charges of unrealism flew fast and furious when someone suggested you could get anything decent for Gallagher, Murton, and E-Pat.

I don’t intend to single out dakoose who often makes interesting points. In particular here he’s right about how dangerous it is to approach an offseason hoping to make this many trades. But, as fans waiting for this to all play out, throwing a bunch of ideas against the wall and seeing what sticks is a lot better way to spend our time then watching Kentucky v. Florida.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats my bad.

I skimmed through this piece until I reached the meat of it and by the time I reached the end I forgot that this was premised by “Let me first state loudly – no I don’t think this is happening.” I should have reread it.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

On a whole random side note

I don’t play fantasy baseball.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some "real" comments

Okay, since people want “realism”, some comments:

No, I don’t think Theriot is going anywhere. I honestly think they’ll go with Ryan as the leadoff hitter next year (I see Roberts staying put, Hudson signing elsewhere, and Furcal resigning in LA, amongst others). I also don’t think DeRosa is going anywhere. Hendry and Co. are big fans. That said, we really only have one definitely open positional position on paper but 2 separate needs (top of the order type and lefty middle of the order bat). Why only 1? If folks are honest about things, Fukudome likely is on the roster in 2009 and likely goes into the year in some platoon role, whether it be with Reed Johnson or someone else. That means, only 1 OF spot is likely open, with the infield likely staying put.

Even if Theriot is leading off, we are likely to need another top of the order guy. The only options on paper now are DeRosa and Fontenot, and Lou doesn’t seem likely to play the former in the 2 hole consistently, and the latter has to see DeRosa moved to get a shot (either to RF or a trade), and I’m not sure DeRosa is traded, and I’m not sure Lou wants to play DeRosa regularly in RF. The only other top of the order hopes are Fukudome/Johnson in whatever role they are in (but I don’t know that I see the Cubs banking on that as the 2 hole options entering the year), Lee (I don’t know if they’d go so far as to move Lee to the 2 hole, if Lee moves, it’s down, I think), with a darkhorse of Soriano. Not many ideal 2 hole options, although Lee could certainly be that.

Certainly, you could pick within those options, but I don’t particularly find it likely that any of those in the 2-hole happen. To be honest, if one did, my guess is that they would move Soriano to the 2-hole. Again, this is my feelings on what leadership might do, not my perceptions on what should happen. Thus, it stands highly possible that to meet both needs, you go the multi-platoon route, which Al used, or you create a 2nd opening.

Pitching wise, I think it’ll be a stunner if Dempster isn’t resigned. After that, I think the 5th starter is either Marquis or someone else in house. As for the bullpen, I think you build with what you have in the system, but it would be nice to get a LOOGY. Problem is, a LOOGY would be costly, and we might not have the budgetary flexibility to do that.

There, some “real” thoughts.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think you're probably right about the off-season problems

and I think it’s worth noting that it’s precisely those realistic problems which lead people to less real-seeming postulates, like Lee being traded to get another LH bat into the lineup.

I agree about the lineup tangles, which is why I think Bobby Abreu makes a lot of sense for the Cubs (not what they should do, but what seems likely). Abreu could bat 2-5 for Lou and adds more base-stealing which Lou wants.

Note, that a lot of these lineup problems go away if the Cubs can get Furcal (who wouldn’t be a Type A FA). And, of course, neither Abreu nor Furcal may make it to the open market.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm almost certain

that Abreu will. Furcal might not make it, but I don’t think the Yankees will give him that long term deal, and thus will let him explore, and I don’t think Abreu will take a short term deal without testing the market first.

For all the Hank Steinbrenner bluster, Brian Cashman still holds sway there, along with Hal, in determining the future. While I think they may make moves for pitching, that’s understandable due to the issues. I do think they are trying to get younger positionally.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Cubs were 5-11 with Theriot leading off last year.

That’d be a really, really bad idea.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 25, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well you cant soley blame that on Theriot

A whole host of factors couldve gone into those losses….now you could say the same thing about Soriano of course, but its becoming evidently clear that they want him moved down.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Waste of time commenting on this stuff

but I have some time to waste today. Hard to say which thing on this list is the dumbest but I am going to go with
Adam Dunn playing 1st. Sure take a guy who can’t field to save his life an put him where his number of fielding chances is going go up maybe 5 times ? No team needs a power bat enough to have an error machine at first.

Lee to San Francisco I know this one keeps coming up and I don’t get it. Why would Lee EVER agree to this ,to be a bit closer to LA ? Guy has a full no trade clause, now he might agree to the right trade but that ain’t it and I don’t see the Giant’s wanting him that much either.

Brian Roberts now this is not nearly as far fetched as most people believe and I don’t see why his price is going up
because he is an FA at the end of 09. I think we have enough to get him but it would probably cost severalof our
good young pitchers and an infielder so still to high a price for me.

Marquis to the Padres. The Padres are shopping Peavy because the are trying to drop a huge chunk of money from their payroll. A team willing to shop one of the best young pitchers in baseball who is under contract for YEARS to come is not picking up ANY PART of Marquis salary. They are going young and CHEAP.

Koye Hill is just not good. Keep Blanco & DeRosa is FAR to valuable to trade for a couple of prospects.

Boy this is going to a LONG off season with all these silly ideas coming up on a daily basis.

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 25, 2008 3:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Let's go with

I’ve got time to kill so let’s go with

a) The initial premise is that, this was just a quick scenario and I absolutely don’t think any of this will happen. Again, someone show me a “realistic scenario” and I can poke holes in it. The idea that any of us can come up with a specific idea that the Cubs braintrust is tossing around that is not predicated on the rumors that have been tossed around is ridiculous in its own nature. Hence, the for fun at the end of it.

b) This scenario was predicated on all the ridiculous Lee/Roberts trades that people put out there. Again, if you read my real thoughts, it is far different from this scenario.

So why San Francisco? Largely because it’s been rumored and speculated upon, by more than just Phil Rogers. Also because it is arguably one of two viable options for moving Lee, as most indications are he’d only go west. Can you sell Lee on the Giants? I believe you can. They have money to spend, a couple developing young players, a pipeline of young talent, and most importantly, they have pitching. That’s the name of the game, and they have it. They have an ownership that wants to, by all public accounts, be competitive sooner than later while building for the future and the NL West isn’t exactly a juggernaut as all the teams are in some phase of rebuilding or restructuring, including the Dodgers. Again, let’s tie in point a on this – I don’t think this scenario is happening, I have my doubts that Lee even gets moved, and it’s for fun.

I fully believe that Roberts price has gone up. The market on Roberts was limited to 2-3 teams last year. This year, if he is legitimately shopped, the Yankees, Mets, and more have all indicated that they may look in on 2nd base. Furthermore, unlike last year, Roberts has shown that his production wasn’t a fluke (too lazy to dig up stats, but look at the variability and assess all factors, including BABIP prior to 2008 – there was fluctuation, enough to get people worried).

c) The Padres are looking to cut costs, yes. They are looking to cut long term costs and rebuild in 2009. Marquis actually makes a lot of sense there at 4-5 million as a 5th starter. They aren’t finding one cheaper on the market, and Marquis would buy them time. Stew on that for a second before telling me it doesn’t make sense. Their young pitching isn’t ready. Will Inman is arguably their best arm in the upper levels and he needs at least 1 more year.

d) I don’t want, real or fake, to move DeRosa or Blanco, but people have to be aware of our tight situation. As I noted in my real thoughts, I don’t think we move them, but if people want the changes that they think need to occur, payroll is going to be an issue, unless ownership changes course and bumps payroll substantially. Keep in mind that, whether you like it or not, Dempster likely returns at a much higher price, and we’ll need a pen arm at a high cost (preferably Wood, but even in FA it would get costly). I am a huge DeRosa fan, but 5.5 million could become critical, and I can live with Fontenot as the starter. I like Blanco, but a 3 million dollar backup catcher is a luxury, not a necessity.

That was quicker than I thought.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point about SF

But they might not be the best trading partner in terms of what the Cubs would like back, unfortunately…..Burris’ stats were better than I had anticipated, so hes intriguing……I just think Jonathan Sanchez wouldnt be the answer were looking for, he’s erratic and has the luxury of playing in a pitchers park (for the most part).

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

San Francisco's park

AT&T is actually a hitter’s park. It isn’t homer-friendly, but it is gap-friendly.

I am a Jon Sanchez fan. I always feel that if there’s a power lefty arm out there, you take the chance, and Sanchez fits that mold. He showed a lot of promise as a starter last year, before tailing off in the 2nd half. There’s obviously the pen aspect to the equation as well. If he pans out as a starter, he’s a “2/3” type starter that has some control issues from time to time. If he moves to the pen, then he’s a late inning power lefty that can be utilized in a variety of ways.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good morning

If you want to have idle speculation for run I don’t mind but Lee and Marquis are NOT happening as described. Let’s see
Phil Rogers and who speculate on this ? Lee gets what a few hundred miles closer to LA so he wants to leave a winning franchise
to risk the Giants for what ? They gonna throw in a few more years? He does this because he loves the Cubs so much he will accept a trade to a clearly inferior team to they can clear payroll ? Adam Dunn is his replacement???? now you were kidding about that right ?

The Padres are dropping payroll NOW, the owners have a bitter divorce ongoing they are not looking long term and they are not
paying 4 or 5 million for a 5th starter. they can Estes for a fraction of that or go with one of the kids because they are REBUILDING not signing expensive vets,

DeRosa a 5.5 might be the best deal on the team. Trade a guy who effectively plays up to 7 positions ? I don’t think so. Blanco
I suppose is expendable as Lou barely played him but Soto had better stay VERY healthy and I don’t think his salary buys you much.

Off to enjoy my Sunday afternoon.

Cheers

"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry

by Doggie Stalker on Oct 26, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just a question.

I was thinking about the whole “Theriot being Lou’s pet” thing and failed to remember a single incident in which Lou really professed his love for Ryan(or even anything close). Can someone help me out with this one?

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 3:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He's never come out and said that he loves it

So I don’t think there’s an actual comment suggesting it. I think people are inferring that Theriot is Lou’s pet from Lou’s comments about liking his grittiness or toughness (I know Lou’s said something like that before).

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ugh my comment looks stupid

What I meant to say is that I don’t think there’s any specific quote out there on how much Lou loves Ryan, at least, I don’t remember it. I’m fairly certain that there has to be a quote somewhere on Lou liking his toughness/grittiness or something like that., and I think people inferred the “Lou’s pet” aspect from that, but I could be wrong.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats exactly what I meant.

I realize that Lou didn’t profess his love for Theriot verbally. I was just looking for an example of Lou in some indirect manner giving us the impression that Ryan is untouchable or special.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its implied...

In his actions, I suppose, by not giving Cedeno a real shot perhaps?

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 25, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe it's because the Cubs don't have a better every day option,

at least in the opinion of the Cubs?

Ronny DID get a shot at playing SS every day and he was a bust. Yes, that was before Lou was the manager but Ronny’s reputation among the management suffered because of his performance in 2006.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 27, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well,

there’s this hagiography.

And then when actions speak louder than words, there’s this.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks.

I see where the pet idea comes from, but not to the extent that Lou wouldn’t stand for Theriot being replaced, as many on this site have claimed.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Personally

As noted, I don’t think this scenario will happen. Also, I am not a huge fan of Theriot.

That said, I don’t know if Lou wouldn’t stand for Theriot being replaced, but I think you would need to offer a solid replacement or an upgrade elsewhere to justify, for Lou, moving Theriot. Thing is, as average (and that might be nice) as his defense might be, he’s still solid enough, and last I checked the base indicators, he should be able to provide a solid avg/obp combo. There just aren’t that many appealing options available. I guess Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal would be the two that jump out, but I’m not sure the latter reaches the market, and I have questions about the justification for the former (haven’t gone through all the stats though).

Short of it is, I think he might be the best option available. Only time will tell, but I don’t think Lou would give Theriot up and replace him with an unproven quantity unless there is a significant upgrade somewhere.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm on the same page with you in regards to Theriot.

His offense was fine enough(for a shortstop), it’s his defense and poor base-running that really set back his value. His OBP is high enough for him to be a two hitter/tables-setter, but again, his defense negates a lot of his offensive ability. If Hendry could somehow bring in a legitimate shortstop to replace Theriot, I would be all for it. But like you said, he might be the best option available.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope

This isn’t directed to you, just a general comment.

Although I’m not certain, but I hope that the front office is willing to listen to all ideas, rather than pigeonholing themselves into the idea of “Can we find better than Theriot at shortstop?” I feel like that’s a dangerous thing to play with, limiting your ability to develop, although it is something that a lot of teams likely would work with, considering Theriot’s season.

For example, and again, I don’t think this scenario happens, but if Baltimore came to us and said, sure, we’d do something along the lines of what’s above, I’d ponder it. I was not a proponent of a Roberts trade last year, due to concerns I’ve mentioned, but I’m a bit more willing to ponder it now. That would necessitate finding a shortstop option, but it would address our two focal issues this offseason (switch hitter and leadoff option). Again, I don’t see Roberts getting moved.

Short of it is, I hope the front office keeps an open mind about things. I think most of us can acknowledge that some tinkering is needed to try and avoid the fate of the past 2 seasons, but considering the reality of the situation, the “apparent” openings are limited.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Umm...

Do you really think that a 93 OPS+ and poor baserunning is “fine offense”? His OPS ranked 10th out of 17 qualifying SSs. For Adam Everett’s glove, that would be great. For Ryan Theriot’s glove….? Not really.

The Cubs would be better off with DeRo at SS and LBR at 2B.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats why I threw in "for a SS."

For his offensive role on this team I believe his offense was decent enough. If you look, you can see that I did mention his poor defense and base-running. Theriot had a decent hitting season. His OPS+ was low because he has no power to speak of. He has solid on-base skills and like I said, had a good role on this team, offensively speaking. He’s no Hanley Ramirez, but he’s not as bad a hitter as a lot of other shortstops. I know this is a counting stat, but Ryan was eleventh among all SS in VORP with 27.3. All that said, he has limited range and a little girl’s arm, and I would like an upgrade at the position.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Excuse me, but this little girl has a better arm than the Riot's... :-)

Would DeRo at SS and LBR at 2B represent an “upgrade” to you? Or do you think that the upgrade has to be from outside the organization?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who could replace Theriot?

My particular fear for Ryan Theriot is that hitters who have no SLG in their bat often find that pitchers are less and less inclined to walk them. It never makes sense for a pitcher to walk a singles hitter when contact could result in the defense getting an out. This makes Theriot’s OBP a very fragile quantity. If he can keep his AVG, also a risky proposition, he could still be a useful bat, but this is a house of cars here. If I believed Theriot was an above average SS, I wouldn’t care. I’d say let it fly and see what he can do. That is, after all, the kind of thing I’ve said about both Pie and Dome. But Theriot, to my eyes, at least, seems significantly below average at SS.

That said, I wouldn’t waste money on Edgar Renteria or Orlando Cabrera and I’m not terribly excited by Rafael Furcal even if he is available. Furcal, at least, would upgrade our defense and keep Hendry from trading players to get a lead-off 2B.

The SS trade market gives some options. I think we could match up with Milwaukee if it wasn’t for the fact that they’re Milwaukee. Khalil Greene has a frighteningly anemic bat, but, at least, a glove, and maybe the bat can come alive walking the Jim Edmonds trail. Cleveland has two SSs, although it’s debatable to call Jhonny Peralta a SS. If we’re trying to improve the defense, Asdrubal’d be the target, but I don’t think he’s going to be traded after his sizzling second half. If Lou thought Felix Pie was frustrating, no way he wants Brandon Wood.

A few options, then, that I see – Boston probably wants to unload an old Lou favorite, Julio Lugo. I hope we don’t go this route. The Angels might be convinced to give up Maicer Izturis if we offered enough. They haven’t played Maicer regularly, but he looks like he could be a poor man’s Furcal. Maybe he’d be overextended playing regularly. The Braves are making noise about Yunel Escobar being available, but maybe only in the Peavy package. Oakland could trade Bobby Crosby if they like Cedeno as part of a return package. Nothing here is really exciting, but I think we at least want another option in house. That’s why I like Izturis. If nothing else, he adds speed off the bench and a guy who can play every IF position.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greene

Hmm … unless I’ve misread things, Greene’s glove is average. If you trade for Khalil, it’d be with the hope that he can show the plus offenisve potential (for the position) that he showed prior to 2008 (look at his away splits before this year).

I’m open to Macier as a utility guy as well. Not sure I want him as a regular, though.

Cleveland is supposedly moving Asdruabl to short this offseason and perhaps moving Peralta to third. That said, this has been rumored for awhile now, so we’ll have to wait and see.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you've misread things.

Greene is a solid shortstop in the field, from everything I’ve heard, seen and read. He’s not Adam Everrett good or anything, but he’s good.

by cwyers on Oct 25, 2008 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm

I’ll have to go skim the defensive metrics again. I’m almost certain last time I skimmed through them, Khalil’s numbers were average. Not great, not bad, average. It is possible I misread it, though. By no means am I saying he’s a bad fielder, but I didn’t think he was a plus defensive shortstop either, and that, in trading for him, you’d be hoping he exhibits the plus offensive potential that he once showed.

by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2008 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Colin,

Taking both offense and defense into account (but ignoring money), who is the better SS: Theriot or Everett?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everett's arm was seriously dinged up this year...

…and it showed up in the field with him. I’d have to see a physical to tell you.

by cwyers on Oct 25, 2008 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK. Didn't realize he had a sore wing.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 11:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right.

None of those options jump off the page. In reference to Greene’s glove, he rated pretty poorly in the 2008 version of Baseball Prospectus. He was -7 last season, +6 in 2006 and -11 in 2005. I don’t know how he rated this year, but I wouldn’t even take this year into consideration.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is why I don't know what to think about defensive stats

RZR and OOZ has Greene top 5 in ’07.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thats interesting.

Now you have me a bit stumped.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My eyes tell me that Greene is an excellent SS.

I have no clue what the stats say.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lemme go ahead and clear this up for everyone, so it does not come up again.

Okay, that’s not going to happen, but I can hope.

Fielding percentage, range factor and anything at Baseball Prospectus is next to meaningless for evaluating defense.

I may be overstating my case here, but anything to do with range factor is close to guessing (and that includes anything at Baseball Prospectus, at least since Dan Fox went to work for the Pirates).

by cwyers on Oct 25, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK. Knowing that no defensive stat is ideal, which do you prefer?

Do you like Dewan’s +/- system?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 11:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Dewan's plenty...

…it’s just not freely available. (I’m told it’s part of the Bill James Online package, or you can get it in the Fielding Bible.) I should note that the Dewan system is based upon “video scouts,” not necessarily sheer number crunching.

Any of the zone rating variants work well. The ones most commonly available are STATS ZR and RZR. In a few weeks/months we’ll start seeing stuff like TotalZone, OPAA and PMR come out for this season, which is the top-shelf stuff. (Plus/Minus is right up there with TZ and PMR.) There’s also UZR, which is proprietary stuff – MGL, a former Cardinals analyst, developed it. Some UZR data becomes available from time to time.

by cwyers on Oct 26, 2008 12:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey

As i fully acknowledge, I’m no sabermagician! I’m taking a look at the RZR numbers right now. Is .824 still the average RZR point for SS (remember that number from awhile back)? Peeking at this year’s stats, Greene was 10th in the bigs (out of 20) with a .835 RZR (Theriot at .823). He was stellar in 2007, 5th in the bigs at .848, 10th in 2006 (out of 24) at .832, 20th in 2005 (.799), 6th in 2004 at 0.839. I wonder if there’s anyone else’s RZR ratings that have gone through such variability from year to year. Hmm … seems like for the most part he’s a bit above average in the .83 range, assuming that .824 is still the average RZR point used for SS, if you assume that 2005 was just an odd year (I don’t remember anything about Greene from that year).

Honest question, as I forget the basics of RZR (after awhile, I just click on the numbers), but is a .83 ish number a top glove at short? I really don’t follow the intricacies of this all too much.

by toonsterwu on Oct 26, 2008 1:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The average RZR changes year to year, sometimes drastically...

…particularly in the outfield. That’s why for thumbnailing it I prefer STATS ZR (ESPN has it), even though RZR is a bit more accurate. The other issue you have to look at is out of zone plays.

The formula I currently use for incorporating OOZ plays into RZR data (and this isn’t something I’m heavily invested in) is:

.86*(RZR)+.14*(OOZ/Innings)

If you think that this sounds like work, you’re probably right.

by cwyers on Oct 26, 2008 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK. I remember in 2006 that DeRo was 6th best in RF in Dewan's system

even though he played only 70 games in RF. Hawpe was near the bottom. From the few games I saw that year on TV, DeRo looked OK, but I was stunned he was rated that highly. I see Hawpe play in person occasionally, so I understand why he gets rated so poorly — he gets a terrible jump and takes bad angles when cutting a ball off in the alley.

It just seems counter-intuitive that DeRo is better when the press keeps touting Hawpe as a great RF and DeRo as a utility guy.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great point about low SLG players...

That’s exactly what happened to Juan Pierre. Pitchers learned to just throw the ball right down the middle.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds right,

but so far in his career, Ryan has seen the same percentage of pitches in the zone as Pierre has. According to FanGraphs numbers, Ryan has seen 53.88% of his pitches in the zone, with Pierre getting 52.6. Maybe Ryan has the skills to maintain his high walk rate. Pierre’s career high in BB is 7.6 back in 2003. Ryan’s “career” low is 8.4, way back last year.

by dakoose on Oct 25, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is my take on Lou's attitude towards Theriot, based on a lot of supposition and reading between lines, so take it fwiw

It seems that when Lou first arrived in Cub camp, he picked Theriot as an example of confidence, hard-work, gumption, what we’ll sum up as swagger. It seems from 2007 playing time that Lou wanted to reward Theriot and make a statement about playing time. If you exhibit swagger, you’ll earn more playing time. It appears that Lou expected he’d be able to have Theriot supplant DeRosa at 2B, except that DeRosa kept playing too well to bench. Theriot couldn’t play the OF, so Lou decided the downside of Theriot’s defense at SS was smaller than the upside of Theriot’s example. I don’t think this is a bad management strategy, in general. I question whether Theriot is deserving of this exaltation, but the strategy itself is a useful one for a manager to use.

This is what I mean when I say that Lou is invested in The Legend of Ryan Theriot. If I’m right that Lou made Theriot a public example in the clubhouse, it’s tough for him to turn on Theriot now. On the other hand, showing devotion to a player who makes so many mental errors and shows again and again that he doesn’t have the arm or range to play SS runs the risk of undermining the positive lesson of The Legend of Ryan Theriot.

In that sense, I don’t think Lou would mind at all if the Cubs could sign Furcal. Furcal’s an All-Star. That would make for an obvious move of Theriot off SS. But I don’t think Lou would move Theriot if we somehow acquired Chin-Lung Hu, Brandon Wood, Brent Lillibridge, or Emmanuel Burriss. I’m not sure Lou would move Theriot if we somehow acquired Asdrubal Cabrera or Maicer Izturis. After all, Lou played Theriot at SS and Cedeno at 2B, both playing out of their more natural position, just to make the point that Theriot is the Cubs SS.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 25, 2008 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I totally agree with you about what happened in 2007.

The thing that I’m still baffled about is why he didn’t try DeRo at SS and Riot at 2B before sticking Riot at SS. He spent the first half of 2007 experimenting; it seems that he missed the obvious thing to try. After all, Bobby Cox has a few years of experience in ML dugouts and he was happy with DeRo’s defense at SS.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because DeRo doesn't have the arm or range to play SS every day.

Not sure what you mean by “Bobby Cox was happy with DeRo’s defense at SS”. The last time DeRo played anything like more than a handful of games at SS was 2001. He was never a regular there.

I can’t imagine why you’d want to take a guy who was a part-time SS eight years ago and make him your regular SS in 2009, at age 34, when the sum total of the games he has played there since he came to the Cubs is two.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 26, 2008 4:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The reason he lost the job to Furcal was offense, not defense.

In 2002, Bobby moved Furcal to 2B to play DeRo at SS because he wanted both of them in the lineup, and he regarded DeRo as the better SS. (Furcal has improved since then.) DeRo got injured a week later, and Furcal moved back to SS.

As to why I would put DeRo there next year? Three weeks after he’s dead he’ll be a better SS than Ryan Theriot.

(BTW, he has plenty of arm to play SS — haven’t you seen him throw from 3B?. Range is the only question.)

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 26, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, that's not right

Mark DeRosa was determined by Atlanta not to have the defensive chops to play shortstop on a consistent basis.

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 26, 2008 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm....

There are more Theriot love-words in that one article than I’ve heard or seen from Lou on DeRo in two years. Strangely, Lou didn’t seem to think that DeRo deserved an all-star boost this year. Stranger still, DeRo has had a higher OPS each year.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 25, 2008 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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The Ordinary Wizarding Levels of Milton Bradley & the 2009 Chicago Cubs
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OT: Big-Ten, Vista-Demolition, Bad-News-Bears, Anything-Goes-on-a-Weekend Game Thread
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Cubs Should Go After Rich Hill
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Last Out to First Pitch – The 2009-10 Offseason IT'S HAPPENING!!!??? Contest
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More From the Cubs in Winter Ball

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The Only CF That Fits for 2010
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An argument for Mike Cameron
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OT: How will the Big Ten wind up and who goes where?
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Should we trade him, or should we not?
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Starlin Castro Vitters etc LIVE Sat night
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Az Fall League Cubs

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FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

Gomez to drink your Brew, Hardy to eat your Twinkie
BP interviews Sam Fuld. Great read!
Who was the best MLB player born on your birthday?

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Jeter wins Gold Glove, &#(#&^$*@!!
Ranking Top Free Agents
Wow! Look at Sosa
No instant replay upcoming
Marlon Byrd to the Cubs??
Rumorville
Should Cubs pursue another lefty Cardinals CF
Job Opening with the Cubs
Cubs trying hard to trade Bradley
Victor Zambrano's mother kidnapped in Venezuela

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It Is Only...

Cubs By The Numbers

Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.

Click here to order your copy, available now!

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Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges

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Ticket Exchanges: Cubs Convention 2010
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Ticket Exchanges: General 2009 Ticket Exchange
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Ticket Exchanges: September 29-October 4 Homestand

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