Matt Holliday?

by BigDumbFace on Oct 27, 2008 11:21 AM CDT Comment 75 comments

ESPN is reporting that the Rockies are going to try to trade Matt Holliday during this off-season. He plays left field for the Rockies, he'd have to play in right for the Cubs. I dont know if he is capable.

What do you think? Would we have enough to get him? Do we even want him?

He hit .321 last year with 25 HR. .409 OBP and 28 steals. He has also had 2 seasons with 34+ HR. He's young. Seems like a good idea to try to go get him.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Link? Or is this off TV?

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 27, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

its true.

i don’t have a link but espn (i know i know its espn but) did report it last night that the Rox are going to listen to offers for him.

Greg Jennings.. Future All Pro

by mkcubs21 on Oct 27, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Found one, Denver Post...

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_10811501

Says they’re seeking pitching help. We do have some depth there…

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 27, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great player but...

first off i wouldn’t want him in right and Colorado is going to want quite a bit and i’m not sure if we have what it would take to get.. Plus if i had to pick the big trade I’d want to happen this offseason, I’d rather have Peavy then another right handed big bat.

Greg Jennings.. Future All Pro

by mkcubs21 on Oct 27, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

There are better trades to be made. His career home/away splits tell an interesting story too. Home OPS: 1.068, Away OPS: .803.

by rambler19 on Oct 27, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would much rather fork over prospects and players......

for Matt Holliday rather than for Jake Peavy.

by EJThunder on Oct 27, 2008 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not me

pitching is hard to come by of that caliber

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Peavy would be much more useful to the Cubs than Holliday.

Peavy would make the rotation better since he effectively replaces Marquis. Holliday is a LF who might not be as good of a hitter away from Coors Field as our current LF.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 27, 2008 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm on record

as saying i dont think its possible but I would love to have peavy

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

for the same package of prospects

I’d go for Peavy. I don’t think we can afford him though. Holliday? Who knows, but as others pointed out his home/road splits give one pause.

by Cubinator on Oct 27, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Believe me, it'd be awesome...

…but there’s no way we have enough to get Matt Holliday. I’d love him in right field too, but we have no farm system for such a catch.
Not to mention he’s right handed, the last thing we need more of – not gonna happen.

by reedjohnson on Oct 27, 2008 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we have to stop throwing darts at every big name out there.

First of all, Holliday hits right handed, as pointed out above. Second, the Cubs led the league in runs scored in 2008. Offense isn’t the problem.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 12:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What is the problem?

Sure, the offense wasn’t a problem during the regular season.

Starting pitching? I think most people would agree that the Cubs, with Dempster, have one of the most deep, talented rotations in baseball.

Bullpen? We could certainly use a good lefty set-up guy. Is that the difference though? Is that why we havent won a playoff game in the last 2 years?

I dont know if Holliday is the best fit in Chicago, but he’s been a very good player. For all the discussion lately about getting ‘winning’ players, maybe we could use a guy that took his team to the World Series just a year ago.

by BigDumbFace on Oct 27, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Further problem with this.

Matt Holliday in Denver = Hall of Famer (.357/.423/.645 career, 1353 AB)

Matt Holliday on road = Reed Johnson (.280/.348/.455 career, 1303 AB)

We already have one of those. OK, Holliday’s road numbers are a little better than Johnson’s overall career (.284/.344/.411). But not by much.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

comparison

your comparing holliday and reed johnson to each other? if your saying reed is anywhere in hollidays ballpark-you are wrong!!!! stats can be deceiving.

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Read what I wrote again.

I can’t imagine anyone could misinterpret them, but maybe I need to spell it out more completely.

Away from Coors Field, Matt Holliday hits like Reed Johnson. And it’s not small-sample-size, either; it’s more than two full seasons’ worth of AB.

Beware of Rockies hitters. They turn mortal outside of Denver.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other Than Galarraga

who had a couple of good years in Atlanta after leaving the Rockies, I can’t think of any Rockies hitter who came close to duplicating his Rockies numbers with another club.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 27, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And Galarraga...

… was a good hitter before he went to Denver, which probably (at least partly) explains it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be curious to know

if the Coors effect is still in full force after they installed the humidor for the baseballs.

I’ll leave this up to Cwyers.

"Dad gum right this games gonna be played under protest. . . I guarantee this is gonna be one protest that's upheld." --Hawk Harrelson, 6/24/07

by RynoHoF on Oct 27, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coors is less of a hitters park now that the humidor has been installed.

Single (or even three year) park effects from this season probably aren’t going to drive home the point enough, as offense has dropped league-wide (probably due to the humidor being in use league wide) and most park factors are relative to that year’s league average.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 27, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so...

what are is your final analysis? is holliday only as good reed johnson away from coors or better?

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If this is the case...

… then Holliday’s numbers appear to me to be even more skewed; if he really has an OPS of 300 points lower on the road than at home, there’s something going on with the Coors Effect.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

let's remember

Holliday is a 3-4th hitter and reed is a 7-8 hitter. big difference there.

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And why is Holliday a 3-4 hitter?

Because he hits like hell in Coors Field. He does not hit that way on the road. Think, please. If the guy isn’t playing 81 games in Denver, why would he hit like he has before?

FWIW, in 48 career AB at Wrigley Field, Holliday is a .229/.339/.313 hitter with one home run.

Now, he’s not going to be that bad if he had Wrigley as his home park. But neither is he going to hit .340.

Like I said — he’d probably hit like Reed Johnson.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand your point

but respectfully disagree. I think he is a stud but with that being said I dont think he is any use to us in our current state.
He’s gonna cost a ton for a more than likely one year rental. If I had my choice of rockies it would be atkins.

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even players who play in a "neutral" park...

…that is, a park with no discernable effect, hit better at home than on the road. They know where the power alleys are, they know where it’s best to try and play a single into a double or a double into a triple, they know the hitting background better. So no, I don’t think it’s as simple as his home/road splits.

But I don’t think Holliday is as good a hitter as his raw totals would suggest.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont need

you to spell anything but I will never agree! no one in america is gonna make me believe that matt holliday in a cub uniform over a season is equal to or less than reed johnson period.

I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 27, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That probably overstates the issue...

…due to the “Coors Field hangover” effect. But yest, his triple-slash numbers are probably overrating him.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 27, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lack of a Full-Time LH Power Bat

Edmonds did hit 19 HR’s for the Cubs this season. He’s not a full-time player. Other than Edmonds, the Cubs don’t have real lefty power bats. Hoffpauir doesn’t play right field defensively well enough to put him in the lineup on an everyday basis. Can we really depend on Hoff to show the same power numbers in the bigs as he did at Iowa? Dome and Fontenot aren’t real power hitters.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 27, 2008 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There is a choice here...

… if you are willing to roll the dice and trade Derrek Lee and install Hoffpauir at 1B.

That’s a risk. Hoffpauir might turn into a classic late bloomer (see: Mike Easler or Bill Robinson from the 70’s and 80’s for examples of this).

Or he might turn into Scot Thompson. It’s a big risk. I’m not sure I’m willing to do this, but I do know Lou loves Hoffpauir.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Luis Gonzalez

He broke into the majors at a much younger age than Hoff. Gonzo bloomed after he was 30 years old. He wasn’t bad with the Astros and Cubs, but he really blossomed into a superstar with Arizona.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 27, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has stated his desire to return to AZ

Said he wanted to wrap up his career there.

In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this? -Oysterband

by Ross on Oct 27, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By the time Gonzo was Hoff's age...

… he had played six full seasons in the major leagues.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Al did you just say something somewhat nice about Hoff?

I’m shocked.

"Pounding sand since 1982...."

by cubswynn on Oct 27, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That looked more like damning him with faint praise.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 27, 2008 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Praising with faint damns"

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 27, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, like I said.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 27, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scot Thompson?

Jesus, Al. Thompson had 5 career homers in almost 1300 ABs. Give Hoff a little more love than Scot Thompson.

I do agree handing the first base job to him would be a risk. But Scot Thompson?

by the nth on Oct 27, 2008 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, Karl Pagel, then.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 4:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Much better, sir.

I remember buying the Sporting News back in the 70s and I just couldn’t understand why they wouldn’t bring this guy named Pagel who was hitting all these homers in Iowa up to the big club. It seems that even the incompetent brain trust back then knew a bust when they saw one.

by the nth on Oct 28, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I say no.

First, he is a Boras client, which means that it would be extremely unlikely that he would re-sign here.

Second, we would have to gut the farm for one year of his services (and we may not have enough) because Ted Lilly is a flyball pitcher (whom they try to avoid) and Z is too expensive. I’m not sure that they take Harden and his injury risk for one year. (If he misses most of the year, they might not get a draft pick.)

Third, Holliday makes Sori look like a GG LF.

Fourth, RH power is not the Cubs biggest need.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 27, 2008 2:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Pass. The last thing the Cubs need is a power-hitteing, right handed, average fielding, left-fielder

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 27, 2008 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

A more probable Rockies target, should the Cubs trade Lee

would be Todd Helton. He’s on the downside of his career, but would cost far less than Holliday, or Garrett Atkins.

He’d provide left-handed power, albeit not at the level he would have 2-3 years ago. Given his contract, he could come with a smaller impact on the Minor League system, if the Cubs wanted to trade Lee.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 27, 2008 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Helton doesn't provide power anymore...

His SLG last year was .388. That’s not much better than Theriot’s SLG last year. His OPS away from Colorado was only .731! And in the past 3 years, it’s only .807.

If we’re looking for LH power at 1B, Helton is not the answer. He’ll get on base a lot, but don’t expect a lot of extra base hits from him anymore.

by SouthernCub on Oct 27, 2008 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was also playing with a bad back

which could sap some power.

I’m not advocating bringing him in, but if the Cubs were to trade Lee, they could do worse than Helton for a short-term replacement. Though they could do much better than him, IMO.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 27, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Todd Helton over Derrek Lee on the Cubs

Helton might have slowed down and has the issue with the back but he remains a premium hitter and his lefty bat would look nicer than DP Derrek Lee.

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 27, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What makes Todd Helton a premium hitter these days?

Barely played this year. Had stats worse than Derrek Lee in 2007. Yeah, let’s trade just to make a trade. He’ll be left-handed I guess, but also worse defensively and come from a stat-inflating park. By all means.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 27, 2008 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A couple of years ago...

…I would have agreed, but I am a little concerned about his age and bad back.

This team desperately needs a left handed bat in the middle of the order to give pitchers a different look. Piniella discussed his offensive concerns after the playoffs and this is why he put a struggling Fukudome in the 2 hole in game one – to give Lowe a different look early in the order.

Come hell or high water, they will go into the season with somebody that fits this need. If Fukudome can make adjustments, you can toss him in lower in the order to give you at least two lefties (maybe three if they get Furcal or Roberts) for the RH pitchers to deal with.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fukudome did hit 5th in the eary part of the year too

so if he turns it around, EMODUKUF-style, he could be back up there.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 9:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bad backs = reason for concern moving forward...

Those things tend to be chronic, and they tend to continue to sap your power.

Yes, they could do worse than Helton. But I definitely think they could do better as well.

by SouthernCub on Oct 27, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Todd Helton is owed

$16.6M in 2009
$16.6M in 2010
$19.1M in 1011
$4.6M buyout in 2012

He is 35 years old, he has a bad back, he’s lost most of his range at 1B, he is slower than Henry Blanco, and his career SLG away from Coors Field is only .494. We are better off with Derrek Lee by far; even Hoff would probably be healthier. In fact, I’d rather see Edmonds at 1B.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 27, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you sane people for stomping out the small ember that was -

let’s replace DLee with Todd Helton. I know Lee hit into a ton double plays and showed decreased power but Todd Helton? Look at DeRo’s post and take a gander at the money this guy with the bum back is owed. We’ve already got Soriano. Bringing in a broken down first baseman and paying him $57 million over the next four years? Dumber than even the Cubs have been in the past.

by the nth on Oct 27, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

Wow, I had no idea the Rockies were on the hook for that much money for Helton. I suppose it’s possible he comes back, but you never know with that sort of back trouble.

Let the Rockies find out for themselves.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 4:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Guess they should have traded him to the Red Sox

when they had the chance a couple of years ago. Of course, they may not have made it the the World Series last year if they had traded Helton.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yep

my thoughts exactly.

by Cubinator on Oct 27, 2008 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, looking at it that way,

I’d agree. Todd Helton is off the list of potential replacements for Lee, based on the money and years left. Though I don’t think the Cubs would have to pick up all of it in a trade, he’s not going to solve the desire for left-handed power enough.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 8:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Matt Holliday doesn't fit

We have screaming need for a left-handed hitting run producer, not another righty. Plus Holliday is going to cost a king’s ransom in trade with the Rockies.

by MDBNIU on Oct 27, 2008 3:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry Al...

but to reference your previous comment, if our offense isn’t the problem, what is? I find that comment a bit of a headscratcher. Not to sound like a smart ass, but what part of 6 runs scored in 3 postseason games did I miss? I hope the front office doesn’t share your sentiments, because if they don’t think offense is the problem after our playoff showings the last 2 years now, things with this team are more hopeless than I thought.

by reedjohnson on Oct 27, 2008 8:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think what Al is saying is regular season offense was not a problem...

which is very true. I am with you though in that the regular season matters so that this team makes th epost season but we do need PROVEN offense for the rest. I would love for the Cubs to pick up a serious hitter that has a history of producing in the playoffs. Hitting is contagious and one of these players may spark a surge to the WS. I like Manny and would give up quite a bit (granted nothing that kills our team now) to get him. DLee, gone. Soriano (yeah right!), gone. Middle starter, gone. Manny ALWAYS hits.

Kwa...Ki...Sur...Pee...Nee...Ku?

by Kinky Reggae on Oct 27, 2008 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can't judge a player or team by their postseason stats...

facepalm.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Oct 27, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The offense remains too feast or famine

Early in the season we were all stunned and amazed by the wondrous diversified nature of the Cub offense. We all chocked it up to the amazing impact of Kosuke. Well, that fizzled around the All-Star break. While the Cubs were winning games by the bunches the return of the infamous dysfunctional offense that has haunted this team since Don Baylor was back. Sure, Ryan Theriot continued to do his thing of working the count, hitting the other way, etc. But the lineup overall went back to the fundamental inability to manufacture runs on a consistent basis. And when this point was raised it was ferociously shot down by some on this board who claimed Debbie Downer syndrome taking hold during a glorious season. Well, look what happened AGAIN in the playoffs. The warning signs were screaming at us real loud in September. But we ignored them, puffed out our chests and rationalized that we were superior to any other NL team on paper.

by MDBNIU on Oct 27, 2008 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If only the Cubs could play the Pirates and Reds in the post season

you would see just how potent this offense can be. The Cubs were helped by the utter collapse of the Brewers and by their solid if unspectacular 1-5 starting pitching. They did not play well after Fukudome hit the skids, and played lousy from the third game of the Philly series on which was only camouflaged by the above mentioned Milwaukee swoon. I agree with everything you say except for Theriot. I’m too tired to check now but I don’t believe he sees an amazing number of pitches per AB.

by the nth on Oct 28, 2008 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you ever tried being right for a change?

Cubs qualified starters, by pitches per plate appearance:

PLAYER P/PA
Kosuke Fukudome 4.29
Aramis Ramirez 4.03
Geovany Soto 3.98
Derrek Lee 3.95
Mark DeRosa 3.89
Ryan Theriot 3.75
Alfonso Soriano 3.73

So if by “patient” you mean “virtually indistinguishable from Alfonso Soriano” then you’re 100% correct. And it was the exact same story last year, and I told you as much, so either you refuse to learn or you just don’t care about being right.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just don't get it...

Pitches per plate don’t tell the full story, now do they. I get so sick and tired of the sabermagicians pointing to a silver bullet statistic to make their point. Did you WATCH the Cubs the second half of the season, or are you once again reacting to box scores? Fact is the Cubs were bad at manufacturing run and executing. It has been the problem that has plagued this franchise since 2000.

by MDBNIU on Oct 28, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You need some guys...

…to run up the pitch count, but there are times your sluggers need to just “hit their pitch”, whether it comes in pitch one or pitch 6.

Hitters have to adjust to pitchers, just as pitchers (especially in the playoffs) have in depth scouting reports on every hitter. I noticed a lot of the Cub’s hitters taking fastballs right down Broadway, getting behind in the count and then flailing away at pitchers pitches.

Running up the pitch count is a good thing, but you also don’t want your better hitters taking the best pitches they will see for strikes. I think some of this was a by-product of just how tight they were, but they sure made it easy on the Dodgers pitching staff.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 9:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This has been one of the main complaints about Adam Dunn from the Reds management. They

were frustrated when he would take a pitch 1 inch off the plate for ball four. Many felt he would forgo a hittable pitch and then swing at a slider off the plate when he was protecting with two strikes. It’s a fine line. I would rather have my big boppers swing at those pitches rather than take walks. You can’t fault a guy for being selective and taking walks, but if a guy also strikes out 150 times a season, he may be wasting a lot of AB’s.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps that explains why DeRo's Pitches/PA is down this season, but his power numbers are up.

His OBP was a few point higher, as well.

Taking pitches just to take pitches just makes the game last longer.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did you watch the games?

Ryan Theriot doesn’t work counts. He takes balls but he swings at strikes. Patient batters take strikes sometimes.

As far as silver bullet – whatever. How many pitches Theriot sees is rather far down on my list of things that I care about when it comes to his offense. I didn’t bring it up until you insisted that in spite of the facts, you have your own definition of “working the count” that doesn’t involve working the count.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps you aren't taking into account one of the "immeasurable" offensive variables: Lou Piniella

The easiest way to manufacture runs is to bunch your best hitters near the top of the order where they will have more PAs and will do more with each PA. The following is a list of the “regulars” by OPS:

Ramy .898
Sori .876
Soto .868
DeRo .857
DLee .823
J-E .822
Riot .745
Dome .738

That doesn’t look like our batting order, does it? Soto and DeRo generally batted 6th and 7th, while Riot and DLee generally batted 2nd and 3rd. That made the bottom of the lineup very potent — DeRo led the team in runs scored — but those guys were getting fewer PAs. Is that their fault?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Cubs need a left handed hitter

Projections that I did for specified ABs in 2009:
Hoffpauir, RF*500 AB- 146 H- 17 HR- 67 RBI- 94 K- 37 BB- 3 HBP- .292 BA- .344 OBP
Griffey Jr. 500 AB- 135 H- 24 HR- 82 RBI- 91 K- 72 BB- 4 HBP- .270 BA- .366 OBP
Abreu 600 AB- 182 H- 21 HR- 100 RBI- 118 K- 86 BB- 1 HBP- .303 BA- .392 OBP
Dunn 550 AB- 134 H- 41 HR- 100 RBI- 177 K- 110 BB- 8 HBP- .244 BA- .377 OBP

I don’t know if the Cubs would spend the money it would cost to get Dunn and if Griffey or Abreu are going to retire. If Abreu or Griffey don’t retire, why not offer them a one year deal with an option for a second year?

For fun
Holliday 600 AB- 194 H- 28 HR- 103 RBI- 115 K- 67 BB- 10 HBP- .323 BA- .400 OBP

The Cubs don’t have what it takes to get Holiday. They should be looking to only get Roberts in terms of a trade.

The Cubs can’t move Lee or Soriano unless they eat at least half of their salaries and throw some extra money in to get them to wave their no trade clauses.

by massey1984 on Oct 28, 2008 12:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

On what basis did you make those projections?

Griffey hitting that well? On what planet is that?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 4:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you seriously think that Hoff will only strikeout 94 times. Based on his pace

from ‘08 500 AB’s equals 164 K’s. Even being generous you have to think he would strikeout at least 120-130 times. He only had 74 AB’s so pitchers didn’t have time to really pitch to his cold spots so that number may go up. Aram struck out 94 times in 554 AB’s. Hoff is going to have a better K rate than Ramirez? Get serious.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you think that Roberts will out-produce DeRo by enough to justify the cost of obtaining him?

If you give up two young pitchers (say Marshall and Hart) plus one MI (Cedeño or Theriot) plus one minor leaguer (perhaps Colvin or Veal) and you get two B-level prospects back for DeRo, is it worth it?

Remember that Roberts will make $3.1M more than DeRo next season, both are likely to be type A FAs after the 2009 season, and DeRo has had a higher OPS than Roberts two of the last three years.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your missing the point...

…its not whether Roberts out produces DeRosa by whatever amount, it is the fact that Roberts brings an element the club needs – left handed bat, good leadoff hitter and stolen base threat. DeRosa is a good player, but he can’t give you any of those elements to help balance out the lineup.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But...

In an ideal world (the one with Mark Cuban’s checkbook), you are absolutely correct. However…

in the Cubs’ world (the one in which they may have only a $130M budget, and $123M of that has been committed before Demp has been signed, and where they have a poor farm system and no RF) can you afford the luxury of spending $3M and using several of your precious trade chips — who might be needed in mid-season when an injury occurs or to get a LHB RF — just to change your 2B from a RHB power hitter to a SH SB threat for one season?

I’m just not convinced that it would be the best use of scarce resources when we currently have a gaping hole in RF — and DeRo, as a RHB, cannot fill it.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs