2008 Cubs: Community Projection Review, Hitters

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 8:41 AM CDT in Community Projections Comment 139 comments

Since 2006 here at BCB we have been projecting various Cubs would do during the upcoming season. This is a two-part review of how we did for 2008; today, focusing on hitters.

As you will see, some were good... and some were way off.

NOTE! Some people have reported that the boxes with the numbers are cut off by the sidebar in certain browsers. If this happens to you, enter the comment page -- it should look better there.

Geovany Soto

Projection:
AB: 469 R: 62 H: 132 2B: 25 3B: 1 HR: 18 RBI: 73  BB: 47 SO: 95
AVG: .281 OBA: .346 SLG: .455 

Actual:
AB: 494 R: 66 H: 141 2B: 35 3B: 2 HR: 23 RBI: 86 BB: 62 SO: 121
AVG: .285 OBA: .364 SLG: .504

COMMENT: Give yourselves a virtual pat on the back; we underestimated Geo's power, but got the rest of it pretty close. He struck out more than we thought, but also walked more. This is an excellent projection for someone's first full season.

Derrek Lee

Projected:
AB: 565 R: 99 H: 174 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 30 RBI: 99 BB: 73 SO: 110
AVG: .308 OBA: .387 SLG: .549

Actual:
AB: 623 R: 93 H: 181 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 20 RBI: 90 BB: 71 SO: 119
AVG: .291 OBA: .361 SLG: .462

COMMENT: Again, not too bad, except we overestimated D-Lee's home runs, which made the SLG estimate too high.

Mark DeRosa

Projected:
AB: 493 R: 69 H: 145 2B: 29 3B: 2 HR: 11 RBI: 69 BB: 53 SO: 89
AVG: .294 OBA: .333 SLG: .428

Actual:
AB: 505 R: 103 H: 144 2B: 30 3B: 3 HR: 21 RBI: 87 BB: 69 SO: 106
AVG: .285 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

COMMENT: DeRo had a career year, although we got the hits, doubles and triples close to right on. His increased HR and BB totals account for the difference in OBA and SLG.

Ryan Theriot

Projected:
AB: 434 R: 66 H: 118 2B: 26 3B: 3 HR: 3 RBI: 40 BB: 44 SO: 44
AVG: .271 OBA: .339 SLG: .363

Actual:
AB: 580 R: 85 H: 178 2B: 19 3B: 4 HR: 1 RBI: 38 BB: 73 SO: 58
AVG: .307 OBA: .387 SLG: .359

COMMENT: Many people thought Theriot would play himself out of the lineup, which accounts for our low AB total. Strangely, although Theriot's almost complete lack of power is the thing that most people criticize about his offense, we projected more doubles and homers than he actually had. No one forecast the increased walk total.

Aramis Ramirez

Projected:
AB: 555 R: 95 H: 173 2B: 38 3B: 2 HR: 38 RBI: 121 BB: 54 SO: 69
AVG: .312 OBA: .372 SLG: .591

Actual:
AB: 554 R: 97 H: 160 2B: 44 3B: 1 HR: 27 RBI: 111 BB: 74 SO: 94
AVG: .289 OBA: .380 SLG: 518

COMMENT: A-Ram's homer total was down, but he hit more doubles. His average was down; all of that lowered his SLG somewhat. His career-high walk total resulted in a career-best .380 OBA.

Alfonso Soriano

Projected:
AB: 625 R: 111 H: 182 2B: 41 3B: 4 HR: 39 RBI: 91 BB: 43 SO: 143
SB: 22 CS: 8 AVG: .291 OBA: .336 SLG: .555

Actual:
AB: 453 R: 76 H: 127 2B: 27 3B: 0 HR: 29 RBI: 75 BB: 43 SO: 103
SB: 19 CS: 3 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

Actual, extrapolated to 625 AB:
AB: 625 R: 105 H: 175 2B: 37 3B: 0 HR: 40 RBI: 103 BB: 59 SO: 142
SB: 26 CS: 4 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

COMMENT: Soriano missed 52 games, so above I extrapolated our projection to the 625 projected AB we thought he'd have (that's two more AB than Derrek Lee had for 155 games). That's pretty close.

Felix Pie

Projected:
AB: 479 R: 68 H: 127 2B: 26 3B: 6 HR: 10 RBI: 52 BB: 35 SO: 106 SB: 21 CS: 7
AVG: .266 OBA: .315 SLG: .411

Actual:
AB: 83 R: 9 H: 20 2B: 2 3B: 1 HR: 1 RBI: 10 BB: 7 SO: 29 SB: 3 CS: 0
AVG: .241 OBA: .312 SLG: .325

Jim Edmonds' Cub numbers:
AB: 250 R: 47 H: 64 2B: 17 3B: 2 HR: 19 RBI: 49 BB: 45 SO: 58 SB: 0 CS: 1
AVG: .256 OBA: .369 SLG: .568

COMMENT: Obviously, this was one of our worst projections, as Pie spent most of the year at Iowa. Combine these two stat lines and you get pretty close to what we thought Pie would do alone, although with more HR. walks and strikeouts and, obviously, fewer steals.

Kosuke Fukudome

Projected:
AB: 568 R: 92 H: 169 2B: 39 3B: 5 HR: 19 RBI: 88 BB: 72 SO: 99
AVG: .297 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

Actual:
AB: 501 R: 79 H: 129 2B: 25 3B: 3 HR: 10 RBI: 58 BB: 81 SO: 104
AVG: .258 OBA: .359 SLG: .379

COMMENT: We, along with Cub management, seriously overestimated Dome's potential. Only the walks came close. If Fukudome is to be worth the money left on his deal, he's going to have to come closer to our 2008 projection in 2009 (and if he does, that'd solve a number of Cub problems).

Tomorrow: pitchers.

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Comments

Al, some of these are hard to read

They got truncated by the side bar.

Hmm…side bar, grey bar, blue bar. The pirates are taking over . . .

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 28, 2008 8:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I just noticed that.

It looked fine when I previewed it. Can you widen your screen resolution?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 8:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just tried after I read your question

Didn’t work.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 28, 2008 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As noted below...

… if you enter the comment page, you should be able to read all the numbers. I’ll put a note on the front page.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Widening the browser doesn't help

The main part of the page has a fixed width so it doesn’t grow with your browser window.

The best thing for you to do would be to put a carriage return halfway through each statline. Even on the comment page the SLG is unreadable (in Firefox anyway).

by Wreckard on Oct 28, 2008 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm.

OK, I understand that. Again, if you enter the post through the comment page, it should look OK.

If there are still problems after you do that, I’ll fix it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's odd

because when I went to ‘wide’ once on the comments page in firefox, i could read everything fine.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wide is indeed fine in the comments page

by Wreckard on Oct 28, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of the numbers are cut off on the front page

Looks better when I open the comment page.

Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #15 5-2 (1-2). Next up CU. Jeremy Maclin can still win the Heisman.

by nji232 on Oct 28, 2008 8:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Ok I just clicked the "wide" version and everything showed up

Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #15 5-2 (1-2). Next up CU. Jeremy Maclin can still win the Heisman.

by nji232 on Oct 28, 2008 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whew!

Glad we got that resolved.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

19 HR and 88 RBI for Fukudome

Ha….wow, that wouldve been nice.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 28, 2008 9:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

What happened with Ryan Theriot?

Theriot, it seems to me, consciously, deliberately altered his approach at the plate. He sacrificed what little power he had, trying only to slap the ball through holes in the infield, fouling more pitches off to gain singles and walks.

This is why our projections were so far off. He made a significant change in the kind of hitter he was, almost certainly extending his career because of it. I think, had Theriot remained the hitter he was in 2007, our projections would have been right and he would have played himself out of the lineup.

The question is – can he maintain his walk rate while exhibiting no power? What reason does a pitcher have for throwing him a ball when the worst Theriot will do with a pitch is get a single? If Theriot can maintain a .300/.375/.325 line that on-base skill has value to a ML team (not necessarily as a full-time starter, and we’re not even talking about his defense or baserunning right now).

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If he shows a marked base-running improvement

than I’d say he makes himself more dangerous. A winter spent refining his stealing technique, allowing him to be a better base stealer and runner, would make those numbers worth keeping in the lineup.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Denier...

…needs to spend a month with him during the offseason (I know that won’t happen), because he is a really bad baserunner.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stolen Base Percentage

He got caught 13 times and “only” stole 22 bases. He should have at least twice as many steals as caught stealings. Of course, the “caught stealings” don’t begin to take into account all of the poor baserunning decisions Theriot made during the season.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 28, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually, a 50 percent

stolen base percentage is god awful and you’re hurting your team a lot more than you’re helping. A base stealer should have at least a 70% success rate.

by scarymonsters85 on Oct 28, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I'm thinking

If last offseason, he took the approach of working on hitting the ball to the right side and pitch recognition (and improved), than I would think he could work on base running and stealing.

Especially if the Cubs are looking at him as a potential leadoff hitter, his ability to reach base and put pressure on the opposing pitcher as a base runner could be valuable.

I would suspect that someone in the Cubs organization would pay him a visit if they wanted to go over base running, maybe not for a month, but to spend some time and give him some tips.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They need to spend time...

…with him no doubt, because it would increase his value to the club immensly. IMO, a lot of baserunning is instinctual. You can work with a guy on fundementals, but the player still needs to make a quick read and make the right decision. He just seems to get brain lock on the bases.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree some of it is instinctual,

like reading a ball in the gap, knowing where the defense is set up, etc.

But I think he can work on things like reading a pitchers motion to home, and working on his reaction time to the pitcher throwing home. Or he can work on taking a direct line to the back corner of the bag, things like that.

There’s room for improvement, no doubt, and if he improves upon it, the team is helped with an additional table-setter, instead of a punch-and-judy hitter.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's curious to me that people assume Theriot can decrease his mental gaffes

when the attitude towards Ronny Cedeno is that he never will and shouldn’t be given the opportunity to try.

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said Cedeno couldn't

At the beginning of last season, I thought Cedeno had turned a corner, and seemed to be a better player, mentally, than he had been over the previous years.

However, as the season progressed (and so did his playing time it seemed), he began to fall into some previous bad habits (chasing high pitches, lack of situational play, etc.).

Now, if he received consistent playing time, would some of those gaffes correct themselves? Possibly.

Aside from failing to bring a left-handed bat into the lineup, could Cedeno start next year at SS, Theriot at 2B and DeRosa in RF? In theory, it could work, but I just don’t know if Cedeno will be consistent enough to force Lou’s hand and put him in the lineup on a daily basis.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Cedeno couldn't get himself in the lineup after 6 weeks of scorching the ball,

he’s not getting in.

I didn’t mean to suggest you in particular, as much as the general mood I pick up at BCB.

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Understandable

I just don’t think the Cubs as an organization trust Cedeno to be consistent enough to play everyday.

His only chance to prove them wrong is if Theriot is hurt or awful, or if he’s traded to a team that will give him a chance to play everyday.

Come to think of it, if the Pirates wanted to deal, the Cubs could dangle Cedeno (Jack Wilson will be shopped in the offseason) and some other parts, to try and get McLouth (though I’m not entirely sold on him keeping that up).

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the scrappy factor. Scrap can always improve itself if it just

pushes a little harder. Whereas Cendeno and his 2 brain cells will never get any better. Perhaps a scrappy transplant for Onedec is in order!

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I notice Cedeno has now lost a brain cell. Poor guy, he used to have 3.

Someday if I have time, I’ll run a statistical analysis on our middle IFs and their Brain cellS Over Replacement Player, BSORP. The baseline is that we know Cedeno has 3, or maybe now, just 2. So, we have to compare Theriot’s Little Things Done Right (problem is, this is an imaginary number and I’ve never been good at higher math), subtract base running outs divided by playing time, multiply by Scrap, and add whatever Lou tells us to add.

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure we will have to add a few fudge factors to

deal with the adaptability of scrappiness and how it can overcome external conditions.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fudge Factor.

I love that show.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 28, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

DeRo probably ruined all of his brain cells at Penn.

Will your statistical analysis take that into account?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's beyond my ability

to take into account cross-sports data, you need a real Sabermagician.

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Paging Colin...

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 10:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be highly unusual to see that.

Remember: speed is the earliest thing to decline in a baseball player. I know that speed isn’t everything when it comes to stealing bases, but it’s certainly something.

As far as his baserunning fundamentals, I don’t know what to think – he was the Cubs’ top baserunning prospect per Baseball America for several years running. I don’t know what we’re seeing this year that all those scouts missed back then – and remember we all thought he was a good runner after 2007.

What I think is happening is that his speed – a skill he’d had all through college and the minors – is starting to decline, and he hasn’t adapted his game to match. I think he could probably cut down on some of the miscues and outs on the basepaths, but mostly by being more selective. I don’t think he can still be a real stolen base threat.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Theriot...

..is at the age yet where his speed should be declining. The way these guys train in the offseason, a guy should be able to hold onto 95% of his speed until 30 or so (baring injury).

IMO, Theriot has poor reactions on the basepaths and that is a killer no matter how fast you are.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would really love for places like STATS and BIS...

…to just get out a fstopwatch and start timing guys as they run to first. They don’t do that.

But we do have several proxy measures for speed (triples as a percentage of non-home-run extra-base hits, stolen base efficency, stolen base attempts, fielding range, on contact batting average) and they all start to decline very early in a player’s career.

I also have a dataset of fielding scouting reports by component, including speed. Maybe I’ll peek in on that later.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it's speed, I agree, he's in trouble.

That’s the one thing he can’t really do anything about.

I don’t have his times down to second base to compare, but I think by refining his technique and fast-twitch muscles, he could certainly improve upon it from a year ago.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's a question I have,

The terms base running and base stealing are using interchangeably a great deal. I have always understood these to be two different things.

As far as I understand, neither requires a great deal of speed. Now, to steal a large number of bases, a player would need to be rather fast but even players with average speed can steal half a dozen or so bases by technique alone.

Also, I understand base running is not necessarily about speed but about fundamentals such as thinking about the play before it happens. As is in most aspects of baseball, the mental part of the game can play a large part of base running.

Does anyone else have a different understanding?

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

…stealing bases is as much about having the knack of reading pitchers as it is about speed. If you put both speed and the ability to read a pitcher together, now you have your guys that can basically steal at will.

Stealing bases is part art and part science and their is also a fair share of guessing that goes on (especially against lefties). Watch good base stealers against lefties (with good moves) and many of those guys guess when to go as opposed to waiting to see if he is clearly going home. One trick a lot of guys use it to get big leads against a lefty, and then start to move back to first on first movement. This keeps you from getting picked off and allows you to get a read on their move. Their next move is to shorten their lead (giving the pitcher a sense of safety) and than they take off as soon as the pitcher makes any movement. If the pitcher ends up going to first, a lot of guys will end up beating the throw to 2nd, by the time the 1st baseman catches the ball and needs to make a good throw to the SS.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Theriot Struggles...

with both base running and base stealing. If you’re only going to steal 22 bases, you better get caught fewer than 13 times.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 28, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bad reads...

…are his problem. He reads the pitcher poorly and batted balls poorly. He gets caught between a lot, because he is not sure what to do.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If that's the case,

then a player can make an improvement with the right coaching.

The organization (and player) need to make a commitment to improving this skill (at both the minor and major league levels).

Do we have the right personnel to improve this skill, not just Theriot, but others?

I would like to see a greater emphasis on base stealing technique at all levels. Personally, taking a look at what the Phillies have done would not be a bad idea as they set a MLB record for successful percentage of steals last year.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Amazing Davey Lopes

Lopes in 1985 with the Cubs played in only 99 games but stole 47 bases and only got caught 4 times. He turned 40 years old on May 3 of that year. For his career, he stole 557 bases and only got caught 114 times. Lopes has had an amazing influence on the Phillies stolen base percentage as a coach.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 28, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He could probably run out there now and steal a base.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe that is still the record for most SB in a season for anyone 40 or older.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's how I've been looking at it, too.

Working on the fast-twitch muscles would be more about stealing bases and programming the brain and muscles to react quickly to reading the pitcher’s motion, which I believe can be improved on Theriot’s part.

The baserunning – reading the ball, making good turns on the bases, etc., can also be improved, and is not dependent on speed.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The only problem is that Theriot appears to have bad insticts when it comes to baserunning. He

doesn’t make good decisions on when to go and when not to go. That is very difficult to teach. It has nothing to do with speed. It’s more of a feel than anything else. Really good baserunners have it, but I haven’t seen that from him. If he’s not sure, he sould stay on the base, because his outs have hurt the team.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why I think the Cubs should send an instructor down to Louisiana this offseason

They can go over tape, breaking down situations where he should or should not be going.

I don’t think stealing bases or base running is purely instinctual – with consistent work and a good approach, I think both can be improved upon.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not purely instinctual, but it helps. I think your suggestion is a good one. He certainly won't

get any faster, but he shouldn’t be making crucial outs on the basepaths like he did last year. I like to think he is a little better ballplayer than that.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So do I.

And I think the Cubs should have someone in the organization who can give a tutorial on base running and base stealing (maybe Bob Dernier or someone like that) during Spring Training.

By going over situational baserunning, the entire team can improve.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They are related but different.

Basestealing is a specific application of baserunning. There’s other skills to baserunning – scoring from first on a double or going first to third on a single, for example. Those just aren’t tracked as often. I ran some numbers on that last offseason, and Theriot wasn’t exactly a top baserunner then.

Certainly it doesn’t hurt to be smart and have good instincts, but if you gave David Ortiz the best instincts in the world (and as a product of the Twins farm system you know that the best in the world at teaching those kinds of fundamentals tried) he still wouldn’t be very good at going first to third on a single.

Instincts matter in figuring out the best way to apply your tools – you have to have the tools (in this case, speed) to use. Maybe not THAT much speed, but at least some.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, in Theriot's case he can.

Just watching him run, he has an awful stride and very inefficient running form. I’m sure every track coach in America cringes when they see him run. He really needs to work with a track coach more than with Bob Dernier. A track coach won’t fix Riot’s tendency to run from 2B to 3B on a grounder to SS (that would require a neurosurgeon), but it would make Riot faster. His ability to steal the bases he does comes from having a very quick cross-over step and running against slow batteries.

To contrast, DeRo has excellent running form, but a very poor cross-over step. He needs two or three strides to reach full speed. That is why he can score from 1B on a double easily and he covers a lot of ground in the OF, but doesn’t steal many bases. (That, and the fact that I don’t think Lou gives him a green light.)

It will be interesting to see if Riot figures this out and hires a running coach, because next season will be crucial for him before he hits arbitration. A .300 hitter with a poor glove, no power, and poor basestealing skills is often a non-tender candidate.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 8:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teaching someone speed...

…is a very difficult task and probably a waste of time. By this stage of their career, running form is very much ingrained. Could they try it, sure, but I think teching guys to “read and react” a little better would be time better spent.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or we could just have Trammel teach him to not double-clutch.

I think that’s probably the most productive thing to try to teach him. Just me, though! Your milage may vary!

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the most part...

…he got away with his double clutch, which just amazes me at the SS position. It bit him a few times, but I would have to think this is going to be exposed more the longer he is on the field – at SS.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 11:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Improving running form can be done...

It would take about 6 weeks of drills, 3-4 times per week. That’s not out of the realm for an off-season workout program. As bad as Riot’s form is, he could gain 20% in that time, which might boost him to 70% SB rate; it certainly won’t turn him into Carl Lewis.

Just a thought. The few extra times he steals 2B might be negated by trying to go to 3B on grounders to SS more often, so maybe it would be a wash after all. And it wouldn’t do a thing for his arm strength.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know it can help...

…but my point is the time would be best spent in other areas.

When I was at Mississippi State, we got set up with the track coach during the offseason to work on form running for 3 weeks. I was slow as shit before the training and was just as slow afterwards.

Lastly, its boring as hell.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only Thing I Know...

that can help overweight players to increase their speed is to lose weight. Even that doesn’t increase speed by that much. Theriot isn’t overweight, so losing weight wouldn’t help him at all with his speed.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 29, 2008 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are two

…things all scouts know you won’t change much in a position player; one is their playing personality (aggressive, passive) and the other is speed.

Guys are pretty much born with speed, because it has much to do with your genetic % of fast twitch muscles and also the bio-mechanical advantages certain guys can have in regards to how their muscles, tendons, ligaments and bones can generate what you need to run fast.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe the Mets changed the way Jose Reyes

ran because he kept injuring his legs.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Ryan Theriot is a smart cookie and a tireless worker when it comes to his hitting. You have to be impressed with the adjustments he made to his game in 2008. He plays to his strengths as a hitter.

"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)

by MDBNIU on Oct 28, 2008 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A guy like Theriot...

…is one who should be taking pitches and be willing to hit often with two strikes. Can he maintain his walk rate? I don’t see why not, because there are a lot of ML pitchers who simply will walk a lot of guys if you make them pitch.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really don't think that's true at all...

…which is why Theriot has never taken a lot of pitches.

Theriot has the ability to tell a ball from a strike, which is a problem Juan Pierre never had, but otherwise they have the same dilemna: neither of them is very capable of driving the ball, and both of them maintain their offensive production by putting a lot of balls in play. You do that by swinging at a lot of pitches.

If Theriot starts taking more pitches, he is probably going to strike out more. (By probably I mean almost certainly.) If you have to hit .300 or thereabouts to be valuable as a hitter – and Theriot does – and you only have a .319 batting average on balls in play (or in this case we can call it “on contact” – same thing) you can’t afford to strike out much more than Theriot does.

And Theriot’s walk rate is basically average – .102 walks per PA in his career, compared to .103 for all hitters (pitchers excluded).

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your probably right...

…taking more strikes would cut down the number of base hits he gets. The question is whether the additional walks would still keep his OBP at the same level. In reality, it would probably hurt him.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really hate breaking out the splits like this, because there’s a real danger in just looking at the data without context. (I love when someone says, “So-and-so really sucks at hitting with two strikes.” Yeah, him and everybody else.)

That said… Theriot really sucks at hitting with two strikes (again – just like everyone else), which is why he tries to avoid being in that situation.

The big reason to take pitches – for him and anyone else – is that you get better pitches to hit. Take a gander at his batting average by count. Look at how it goes up the more balls he gets.

But Theriot doesn’t hit for the kind of power to enable him to be Adam Dunn selective with his pitches, or even Derrek Lee selective. Which is why he isn’t.

In general I’m very hesitant to suggest changes to a player’s hitting approach because there are a lot of unquantifiable tradeoffs. Would Dunn’s batting average go up if he swung at more pitches? Very possibly. But his on-contact power and his walk rate would both suffer. Which is better? Don’t know.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

…which is why the most difficult lineups for a pitcher to face, are those that have enouph patient hitters to make them work, yet, have a good chance of doing damage when they get a good pitch to hit.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ayup.

So long as we’re on the topic, I’ll take the opportunity to note how annoyed I am when a guy swings at a 3-0 pitch and people start to complain. 3-0 counts are when pitchers serve up the really tasty pitches to hit! You take pitches because it gets you pitches to hit, and if you don’t get any pitches to hit you take your free base. But the objective is still to get pitches to hit and then hit them. Working the pitcher isn’t the goal in and of itself.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

…and I absolutely loved getting the green light on 3-0. You can pick a small box in your head of where you want that pitch and your are mentally locked in to that spot. This gives you a much better chance of driving the ball, because you have already pre-programmed your mind and your reflexes respond.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Colin,

Looking at how Lee came pretty close to the projections, I have a question. In your data, do you have how many times Derrick Lee grounded into outs in 2005, 2007 and 2008.

I realize he’s taken a beating on GIDP, but am curious whether his rate grounding into outs changed or just the number of times it became two outs increased.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 28, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008: 213
2007: 126
2005: 128

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow...

…just watching would tell you he was beating the ball into the ground more, but those numbers are amazing.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yikes

I did not expect it to be that dramatic.

Thank you.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 29, 2008 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, given these numbers...

… what would any of you say is the REASON for this sharp increase?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 8:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

IMO...

…a change like this is difficult to explain or to just chalk up to a strange season for him. Typically, when you get “pull happy” a righty will end up grounding to SS/3b quite a bit. I don’t have Lee’s spray chart, so I can’t say whether that changed from years past, but trying to pull outside pitches will definately induce a boatload of ground balls.

I saw maybe half of the games, and it seemed to me that Lee was still hitting some balls to RF, but he didn’t seem to be driving it as well as in the past. For this type of change over this long a period, I am wondering whether Lee was bothered for much of the season by a nagging injury. I say this because it seemed to me, he wasn’t getting the bat through the hitting zone like he had in the past.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would make sense.

You’d think that once the season was over, he might admit that. I know he wouldn’t want to DURING the season, but given he has a few months off to rest it, maybe we’ll hear that this was the case.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The neck issue...

…as is stated below, could have been an something that lingered for him. If anyone has ever had neck problems, you know that it effects you in a multitude of ways.

Lee also seems to be the kind of guy who wouldn’t advertise that he was having problems. He did start the year very well and then he cooled off (in regards to power) considerably in the 2nd half.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 9:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It makes a lot of sense.

Now, if this is the case, that’s something that ought to heal itself over the off-season and maybe it’s NOT the best idea to deal him.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had to guess...

..if the neck was nagging him for much of the season, that Hendry and Piniella will factor this into plans to keep or trade Lee. If they think the neck was hampering him and it can heal well, it could have a big impact on their plans.

The reason I say it may be something nagging at him, is because you could clearly see he was not attacking balls the same way he was in the first half. This can happen when you don’t see the ball as well, but that doesn’t last a half a season for a skilled hitter.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the biggest thing we see in this data

is that there was a significant difference in Lee’s batting results; that makes me hope it is fixable. I think MPH73 might well be right. We can’t know for sure. But it looks to me like this is something some time off and a new season may change on its own.

Remember, Lee’s in good shape. This isn’t Mo Vaugh we’re talking about.

by DGU on Oct 29, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still wonder whether...

…the neck spasms that sidelined him for a while weren’t making it painful for him to drive the ball.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 29, 2008 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

JMO

I think that his swing has gotten long and slow. IOW, instead of waiting on a pitch then pouncing — using his hands, he has let his swing (including the leg kick) become longer and more “rhythmic”. The result is that his bat speed and reaction time are slower, and that he can’t get the sweet spot on anything breaking down.

Rudy Jaramillo, who generally teaches some form of leg kick in order to stay on the back foot, preaches: “Get that foot down. Once your foot is down, your hands know what to do.” I think that DLee is slow to get his foot down, which results in his hands slowing down and not “knowing what to do”.

I think that this is the product of age (slightly) and bad habits (largely). It is certainly correctable (though I’m not sure who is batting coach is, and that can make a big difference) this off-season and next ST.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 29, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So let me understand this:

Soriano Actual:
AB: 453 R: 76 H: 127 2B: 27 3B: 0 HR: 29 RBI: 75 BB: 43 SO: 103 SB: 19 CS: 3 AVG: .280

Yet people want to trade this man?

by Galvan316 on Oct 28, 2008 10:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

People will tell you he pads his stats

without ever explaining what that actually means.

by Wreckard on Oct 28, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

good pitchers can strike him out.

For the most part, he only hits mistake pitches hard. In the playoffs, pitchers don’t make that many mistakes.

by JPetey on Oct 28, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really

by DGU on Oct 28, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You just described 80% of the hitters in baseball. Most hitters are mistake hitters. That's the difference between

a .280 hitter and a .320 hitter. Elite hitters can hit good pitches much more often than the average hitter.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How true...

…and something that I get a kick out of when I hear it. If pitchers made the pitch they wanted to 100% of the time, the league leader in hitting would be about – .150.

90% of hard hit balls are because the hitter got a pitch he could handle (and may have been looking for). It’s also true the really good hitters are occasionaly able to hit a pitchers pitch. These guys have the ability to adjust their swing in mid-flight and put the fat part of the bat on the ball. When he is seeing the ball well, Aramis Ramirez can do this.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thats the beauty of baseball. Tiny minute factors introduced by a pitcher must be

adjusted to by a batter standing 60 feet away swinging a bat at a ball travelling at 90 MPH. All this must be done in the blink of an in conditions that can change minute by minute. That’s why I love this game.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How true...

…and being able to manipulate that 6" (sweet spot) piece of the bat on the ball takes exceptional pitch recognition and scary hand/eye coordination.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some say it's the most difficult feat in sports. I tend to agree.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Me too

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thirded.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adding a thought...

…one thing that isn’t discussed a bunch is a hitter’s skill at pitch recognition. To be at their best, a hitter needs to be in a relaxed, yet high concentration level state. When guys are going well, its usually because their focus is so tight on the ball, they allow themselves that split second longer to make the right decision. When you see guys take pitches (that aren’t strikes) in a quiet fashion (no check swings, keeping hands back), it usually means they are seeing the ball from that pitcher pretty well.

In regards to prospects, this adds an element that is hard to predict. IMO, major league pitchers do a better job with using the same arm slots (with all their pitches) and not telegraphing pitches as much. When you get to the bigs, this is an adjustment a hitter needs to make and since it is between the ears, it is a big reason a lot of “toolsy” guys fail, because they can’t make this transition. When you add in swing flaws, the problems get magnified.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot of players never get this. The best hitters have really good eyesight and can

recognize the pitch and how it will react a split second before the average hitter. When a batter says “I was just reacting to the ball, where it was pitched”, that’s really a misnomer. Scientifically, it’s impossible to see the ball, recognize what type of pitch it is, where it’s going and react. You don’t have enough time. The good hitters look at arm angle and anticipate where a pitch will be and react to speed. That’s why a pitcher with a good changeup, like Santana can be so devistating. Hitting is about timing. Good pitchers can screwup that timing. Of course, it helps to have a good 98MPH fastball, but a good hitter that can time a pitch can catch up to that fastball, no matter how fast you throw it. You can shoot it out of a cannon and they can still hit it.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting is all...

…timing, timing and more timing. When you see pitches and recognize them quicker, your timing will be better because you don’t fully commit all your power. This is a reason the radar gun is overused (IMO), because pitching is all about keeping a guy off balance.

A guy who throws 98 mph is great, but if you are laying for it and it gets a lot of the plate, it can leave the premises in a hurry.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is why guys like Hamels & Santana

are so effective. With the changeup coming from the arm slot and motion, it’s devastating to timing.

In a lot of cases, I think a good changeup is more damaging than a breaking ball.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A great change...

…is the most devastating pitch for a hitter.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wish more kids learned the changeup

in Little League than working on the curve.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Trey2317 on Oct 28, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally agree

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

There have been more young arms screwed up trying to throw curveballs than anything. My dad used to manage little league and Babe Ruth teams and he would never let young kids throw breaking pitches. He knew they would try it when he wasn’t around, but if he caught them he would stop them from doing it. It’s really not necessary until they get at least in their teens until the muscles and bones get a little more developed. I cringe when I see kids in the Little League WS throw breaking pitches. They will throw 10 fastballs and no one will touch and then they have to show off a breaking ball. Why?

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing.....

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 28, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, and just imagine Rich Hill if he had a REAL one...

by MDBNIU on Oct 28, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rich Hill will never pitch effectively in the major leagues until he learns a third

pitch or learns to locate his fastball. His fastball barely tops out at 90 and has no movement, so he has to spot it to be effective with it and his curve. There have been a few good curveball pitchers who had average fastballs, Bert Blyleven comes to mind, but they were smart and could spot their fastball. Rich Hill can do neither. A good changeup would take pressure off his fastball and curve, but the odds of him developing that pitch at this point in his career are slim at best.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait, you're quoting blue mike right?

by philadelphiacub on Oct 28, 2008 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I'm quoting me. Rich Hill can be an effective pitcher in the ML, but

he has to make some adjustments and get his head on straight. I don’t know if he is mentally tough enough to do it, but he has the talent. He had a good year in ’07, so we know it can be done.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, I thought the same thing.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 28, 2008 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Allright, them's fightin words. I refuse to be insulted like this. Go pound sand.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, see...you fell right into my trap.

I wanted you to tell me to pound sand. I don’t get quite the same high as when BlueMike does it but…close enough.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 28, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's certainly easier to control. Breaking pitches require a lot more feel and seem

to come and go for a lot of pitchers. A guy like Harden can thrive on just two pitches, a fastball and a changeup. Not a lot of pitchers can say that. A guy like Maddux can survived because the speed differential between his pitches totally screws with a batters timing. I think the hardest pitch to hit is a changeup that moves. In his heyday, he could throw that pitch in any count in any situation and be sure to get good results. Back then, there weren’t a lot of guys who got good wood on his pitches.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at Moyer...

…the guy was throwing batting practice fastballs the other night and the Rays had some horrid swings against him. Guys like him are so different than most pitchers, it takes a hitter 3 AB’s to get a feel for him.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 28, 2008 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By that time, he's taking a shower.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 28, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fukudome

Forget the power…at this point, I’d be really happy if he became the high contact, good obp guy he was at the beginning of the year. I think his cieling is a good #2 guy.

by Cubinator on Oct 28, 2008 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Reasonable Expectations for Dome

I thought at the beginning of the season that he was going to hit fewer than the 19 HR’s projected. I was surprised with the relatively low batting average of .258. I think Dome can hit .285, have 15 HR’s, and 75 RBI. Those are below the 2008 projections of .297, 19 HR’s, and 88 RBI. I mistakenly thought Dome would get back on track in September. Other than that HR in Milwaukee on the last Saturday of the regular season, I can’t think of too many Dome highlights down the stretch. I haven’t given up on him.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 28, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's almost 30 points in BA.

If he could do that, he’d be a very valuable player, because that would put his OBA in the .390 range, making him an ideal #2 hitter.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 28, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree, if you count him as a CF.

I think I would like more than .285/.390/.430, 15 HRs, 75 RBI out of a COF. After all, we get more than that from a MI.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 28, 2008 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What were your best and worst projections for a position player?

For those of you who participated in the BCB community projections, I ask you: What was your best projection for a position player? What was your worst? I’ll start. My best was probably Aramis Ramirez:

Predicted			Actual
AB: 525			AB: 554
R: 85			R: 97
H: 161			H: 160
2B: 37 			2B: 44
3B: 3			3B: 1
BB/HBP: 46		BB/HBP: 85
SO: 65			SO: 94
HR: 35			HR: 27
RBI: 111			RBI: 111
AVG: .306		         AVG: .289
OBP: .362			OBP: .380
SLG: .588			SLG: .518
OPS: .950			OPS: .898

As you can see, I predicted his RBIs exactly and was only one off on his number of hits. Of course, he struck out way more than I expected and hit far fewer home runs. He also drew a lot more walks and, thus, had a much greater OBP. But, at the end of the day (er, season), I missed his OPS by only .052.

My worst was probably Kosuke:

Predicted		         Actual
AB: 550			AB: 501
R: 87			R: 79
H: 160			H: 129
2B: 38			2B: 25
3B: 5			3B: 3
BB/HBP: 75		BB/HBP: 85
SO: 104			SO: 104
HR: 21			HR: 10
RBI: 81			RBI: 58
SB: 15			SB: 12
CS: 5			CS: 4
AVG: .290			AVG: .257
OBP: .376			OBP: .359
SLG: .493			SLG: .379
OPS: .869			OPS: .738

He came up way short in almost everything – except walks. Note, however, that I did nail his number of strkeouts exactly. When all was said and done, though, I missed his OPS by .131.

I had varying degrees of success and failure elsewhere (mostly failure). I missed Soriano’s OPS by only .002 but, because of his injuries, I grossly overestimated his number of ABs. Similiarly, with Ryan Theriot, I missed his OPS by only .041 even though I admittedly way underestimated his batting average and OBP. (I was damn close on his [lack of] slugging.) I also predicted his number of runs exactly – 85.

Anyway, Al’s post inspired me to update the document I created to compare my projections to the actuals, and I thought I’d share. Please feel free to do the same.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 28, 2008 2:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Fukodome

I was really surprised at how long and how bad his slump last this year…
I felt bad for the guy cause I know the hype at the beginning was HUGE for him…

My buddy and I were talking about it and he’s not the only Japanese transplant to have a
great start and a middlin’ to poor second half of his first season…

I don’t have a great eye for hitting… never been in a batters box in my life… (Wiffle ball doesn’t count)
but once we started talking about this is made sense…

American pitching and Japanese pitching take 2 different approaches…

American pitchers for the most part pitch away to a hitters strengths… off speed, find his weak spot,
don’t throw to his sweet spot in the strike zone…

Japanese pitchers go AT the hitters sweet spot… they challenege the hitter to hit…

Also several of the Japanese transplant lefties have had the same issue where they have an
exaggerated swinging first step to first…
look back at Dome’s swing… He’s already trying to get away from the plate during his swing…
that closes off the outside of the plate to him so American pitchers just kept hammering him with
away pitches…
I also think the pressure of the first few months got to him when his BA started to slide because of
his over-hyped first half… and honestly… not that I would trade it, but his first month in the league where
he was hammering the snot out of the ball did nothing to ease the slumps drastic effects…

but you started to see his drop off well before the slump as a few pitchers started to find his number…

I thought I read where Lou and Spendry (Who ever coined that I love it) have already said they were going to
find Dome a hitting coach from Japan, bring him over and get KD into an off season program to work on
his swing…
I thought ichiro had the same problems when he first came in…
not as dramatic or sustained a slump… but a slump until he changed his batting stance and swing…

I’m not ready by any means to write off KD… let’s hope neither is Lou or JH…

- Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!
- Germans?
- Forget it, he's rolling.

by Endrick on Oct 28, 2008 2:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

BCB Theriot Contest

Hey who won the Theriot contest from July
I had 94 games won 301 avg and 368obp
I think I lost,,,, dang nabbit

If the world didn't suck we would all fall off.

by carolinacub on Oct 28, 2008 3:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow...

Where oh where does Alfonso get that power from?

His numbers would have been very nice looking over a whole 162 season. Can’t wait to actually see him hit 40 with the Cubbies.

Go Cubs Go ’09

by TheHawkRules on Oct 28, 2008 4:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sigh...

Yeah, let’s be seduced by the personal stats of Alfonso Soriano that go on the back of his bubblegum card each year while completely ignoring his extreme shortcomings and baggage.

I HATE Alfonso Soriano. And you should too if you have been watching anything about the Chicago Cubs in 2007 and 2008.

by MDBNIU on Oct 28, 2008 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I've asked this before and just been so disgusted by your response...

…that I blocked it out, but what differentiates personal stats like Soriano’s from the similar but intensely team-oriented stats of other power hitters?

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 28, 2008 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MDBNIU

Haha… Thanks. I was seduced by the stats, a bottle of red wine, and a dirty video starring David Duchovny and Gillian Anderson.

Actually, I kind of like Alfonso! Sure, he shouldn’t be batting leadoff… plus, he doesn’t seem to be the most intelligent guy out there. Still, I like to watch him when he’s hot at the plate and is carrying this team.

Maybe in a few years, my mind will change. Till then, I just keep drinking the wine, watching the video, and I’ll just keep watching Fonzie hit homer after homer.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 28, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano

He doesn’t seem to care about playing “winning” baseball. He can hit home runs, steal bases when he’s healthy, and throw the ball. Whether or not he catches it in the first place to throw it is another matter. You don’t get the sense he can come through in the clutch. He plays as if he is more concerned about his own personal statistics than whether the teams wins or loses.

If he cared more about the team, he would hit further down in the order. Chances are he would have more runners on base when he would hit those home runs and would have more RBI. Thus, Soriano would help the team more.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 29, 2008 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're making some big assumptions here. Do you have insights into his mind? How do

you know how much he cares? How do you know that he is more concerned about his personal stats than the teams winning? Have you seen him celebrate if he hits a home run but the team loses? Your assumptions are based on conjecture and to assert them as fact is a huge leap. Don’t assume to know what’s in a player’s mind based on his performance or what you perceive as what should be. Unless you talk to him or he states as fact what you say, any assumptions are your idea of reality, not fact.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 29, 2008 8:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LSA.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 29, 2008 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Besides...

I thought Lou decided who batted where.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 29, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lou the Enabler

For the most part, I love Lou as a manager. Lou hasn’t been tough enough on Soriano. Lou plays into Sori’s hands by batting him leadoff. I think of Soriano as baseball’s answer to what Dominique Wilkins was in basketball. Players with loads of talent, plenty of stuff to put on the highlight reel, and impressive statistics that don’t help your team win as much as you think they should describe both Soriano and Wilkins.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 29, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you implying that Lou is placing Soriano's needs above that of the entire team? Do you

think that Lou would jeopordize winning games to accommodate Soriano. I think Lou is intelligent enough to place people in the lineup to give the team the best possible chance to win. You may not agree with his his choices, but that doesn’t mean he is sacrificing winning over pleasing Soriano.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 29, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he may be.

Lou hasn’t hesitated to bench people or get them sent away if he doesn’t like them. On the other hand, for example, he kept trotting Bob Howry out there even after his performance was clearly hurting the team.

I think he does coddle Soriano to some extent.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coddling is one thing, we know that superstar athletes are treated different than other players, but

I find it hard to believe that Lou would consciously place Soriano at leadoff if he thought that placing him in another spot would give the team a better chance to win. Obviously he feels that if Soriano is successful, the team has a better chance of succeeding. We may not agree with his reasoning, but that doesn’t mean that he is setting up the lineup to please the team and would risk losing to do it. If he is, he should be fired.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 29, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano: Hard to Figure

I wonder if Lou were managing the Washington Nationals in 2005 if he would have let Soriano stay at 2B. Frank Robinson didn’t. I’d rather have Soriano in LF than 2B. The saving grace of Soriano in LF is his throwing ability. Otherwise, he’s a minus outfielder.

First theory: Sori wants to hit leadoff. Because Sori is happy hitting leadoff, he’ll do a good job hitting leadoff because of positive thoughts.

Second theory: Sori has a lot of power. There tend to be more RBI chances hitting in the 3-4-5 spots. His home runs would mean more hitting down in the lineup.

Third theory: He’s Soriano. He wouldn’t be happy hitting down in the lineup. Because he would be unhappy, he wouldn’t perform well in that spot in the lineup. He would be happy to do poorly in that slot because that would mean he would be moved back to his beloved leadoff spot. He could then say he shouldn’t have been moved down in the lineup.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 29, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For the most part...

…I agree that Lou puts a premium on winning and will trot out the guys he thinks gives the club the best chance on that particular day. I also think that Lou has been a slightly different manager with the Cubs, than he was in previous stops. He has tried to be more tolerant of certain things that he would not have in the past. Soriano is someone who is locked up for a long time for large dollars, and I am sure Hendry has talked to Lou about Soriano being a guy who may need to be coddled a bit.

Lou has had ample opportuntiies to lay down the law with Soriano, when he has loafed after fly balls, didn’t run out balls in the park etc. etc. This past year, Lou finally called him out on it, but it didn’t seem to have much of an effect. Hendry has committed boadloads of money to a handful of players, and the last thing he wants is for his manager to be constantly after the one he gave 8 years and 140 mil to – it makes Hendry look bad.

I for one, would like to see more of the Piniella personality of 5-10 years ago. A guy who we have only seen flashes of these last two years.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's because of Soriano's attitude that Lou doesn't throw him under the bus. If

Soriano displayed a “don’t care” attitude or complained to the press about things, it would be easy for Lou to lower the boom on him, but I think that Soriano is the type of player that is a bit oblivious to things going on around him. I’m not saying he is not intelligent, just not aware. His mistakes are not out of malice, he just seems to lack an awareness that hustling out of the box or after a ball should be done all of the time. It’s not easy for a manager to criticize a player in this type of situation. I really don’t think it has to do with the size of his contract or Lou mellowing in his old age. I think he knows that Soriano can be an extremely productive player if handled correctly. Unfortunately, he has some warts that cam be difficult to take, but that seems to come along with the package.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 29, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good description...

…and I agree that Soriano does not loaf or swing at 58 footers because he doesn’t care. In fact, his “oblivious” personality is what allows him to forget about going 0 for 12 (with 8 strikeouts) and then going on a tear where he hits 6 homers in 4 games.

I’m not saying Lou should constantly rip into his ass, but he should move him down in the order and let his “oblivious” nature go to work driving in runs in the 5 hole.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think that Lou overcompensates for Soriano’s shortcommings. I think that because he is “oblivious” to certain things, moving him down would not be as traumatic as it has made out to be. He may struggle a bit because in his mind he needs to leadoff, but he will eventually hit. Lou just has to make up his mind that this is the way it’s going to be and stick to his guns. We all know that Soriano has the talent to do this. The guy can hit. Once he gets hot, it doesn’t matter if he’s bating first, fifth or ninth, he will hit.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 29, 2008 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Talent will find its way to the surface...

…over time, and I would rather have a .500+ slugging % guy doing what he does, lower in the order.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Deep Thoughts with BCB

Wow. I think we may be over-analyzing this a little bit. I’m sure if Hendry could get hold of a legit leadoff man, then Soriano would move down the order. The fact is, we don’t have anybody else who legitimately fits in the leadoff. Soriano is not the stereo-typical leadoff man, but he’s probably the closest thing we have to one. If somebody better comes along to take his spot, Lou will move Soriano from leadoff.

Ultimately, I think that is Lou’s philosophy. If someone wants it, earn it. If they earn it, it’s theirs until somebody comes and takes it. If someone on the Cubs wants the leadoff spot, then they can earn it.

I have no problems with that.

If we had a hitter like Kenny Lofton on our team, and then Lou was refusing to move Soriano out of leadoff for Lofton-like man, then, I think there would be more to the argument of removing Soriano from leadoff.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 29, 2008 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sori has always said that, while he prefers batting leadoff, he will bat wherever the manager puts him.

He said that in NY, he said that in Texas (and Buck Showalter batted him 5th without any incident), he said that in Washington (and he batted 3rd part of the year), and he has said that in Chicago.

Lou is so in love with having a base-stealer at the top of the order that he has ignored other choices like Theriot and DeRo, who both had excellent OBPs this year.

Because of the way that Lou wrote his lineup card — burying DeRo and Soto at the bottom of the order — DeRo led the team in runs scored. Sori thus drove in 75 runs in only 453 ABs; he also scored 76 runs.

Lou wrote the lineup card with Sori at the top. How is that Sori’s fault?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 29, 2008 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, yeah. We know, we know.

You can stop repeating yourself now. I’ll be the first to recognize the downsides of Alfonso Soriano, but your warped perspective on his stats makes no sense. Why? Because stats don’t happen in a vaccum. Those 29 home runs helped the team. Those 75 runs driven in helped the team. His 10 outfield assists (if I’m reading Baseball-Reference correctly) helped the team.

"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 29, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs