2008 Cubs: Community Projection Review, Hitters

Since 2006 here at BCB we have been projecting various Cubs would do during the upcoming season. This is a two-part review of how we did for 2008; today, focusing on hitters.

As you will see, some were good... and some were way off.

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Geovany Soto

Projection: AB: 469 R: 62 H: 132 2B: 25 3B: 1 HR: 18 RBI: 73 BB: 47 SO: 95 AVG: .281 OBA: .346 SLG: .455 Actual: AB: 494 R: 66 H: 141 2B: 35 3B: 2 HR: 23 RBI: 86 BB: 62 SO: 121 AVG: .285 OBA: .364 SLG: .504

COMMENT: Give yourselves a virtual pat on the back; we underestimated Geo's power, but got the rest of it pretty close. He struck out more than we thought, but also walked more. This is an excellent projection for someone's first full season.

Derrek Lee

Projected: AB: 565 R: 99 H: 174 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 30 RBI: 99 BB: 73 SO: 110 AVG: .308 OBA: .387 SLG: .549 Actual: AB: 623 R: 93 H: 181 2B: 41 3B: 3 HR: 20 RBI: 90 BB: 71 SO: 119 AVG: .291 OBA: .361 SLG: .462

COMMENT: Again, not too bad, except we overestimated D-Lee's home runs, which made the SLG estimate too high.

Mark DeRosa

Projected: AB: 493 R: 69 H: 145 2B: 29 3B: 2 HR: 11 RBI: 69 BB: 53 SO: 89 AVG: .294 OBA: .333 SLG: .428 Actual: AB: 505 R: 103 H: 144 2B: 30 3B: 3 HR: 21 RBI: 87 BB: 69 SO: 106 AVG: .285 OBA: .376 SLG: .481

COMMENT: DeRo had a career year, although we got the hits, doubles and triples close to right on. His increased HR and BB totals account for the difference in OBA and SLG.

Ryan Theriot

Projected: AB: 434 R: 66 H: 118 2B: 26 3B: 3 HR: 3 RBI: 40 BB: 44 SO: 44 AVG: .271 OBA: .339 SLG: .363 Actual: AB: 580 R: 85 H: 178 2B: 19 3B: 4 HR: 1 RBI: 38 BB: 73 SO: 58 AVG: .307 OBA: .387 SLG: .359

COMMENT: Many people thought Theriot would play himself out of the lineup, which accounts for our low AB total. Strangely, although Theriot's almost complete lack of power is the thing that most people criticize about his offense, we projected more doubles and homers than he actually had. No one forecast the increased walk total.

Aramis Ramirez

Projected: AB: 555 R: 95 H: 173 2B: 38 3B: 2 HR: 38 RBI: 121 BB: 54 SO: 69 AVG: .312 OBA: .372 SLG: .591 Actual: AB: 554 R: 97 H: 160 2B: 44 3B: 1 HR: 27 RBI: 111 BB: 74 SO: 94 AVG: .289 OBA: .380 SLG: 518

COMMENT: A-Ram's homer total was down, but he hit more doubles. His average was down; all of that lowered his SLG somewhat. His career-high walk total resulted in a career-best .380 OBA.

Alfonso Soriano

Projected: AB: 625 R: 111 H: 182 2B: 41 3B: 4 HR: 39 RBI: 91 BB: 43 SO: 143 SB: 22 CS: 8 AVG: .291 OBA: .336 SLG: .555 Actual: AB: 453 R: 76 H: 127 2B: 27 3B: 0 HR: 29 RBI: 75 BB: 43 SO: 103 SB: 19 CS: 3 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532 Actual, extrapolated to 625 AB: AB: 625 R: 105 H: 175 2B: 37 3B: 0 HR: 40 RBI: 103 BB: 59 SO: 142 SB: 26 CS: 4 AVG: .280 OBA: .344 SLG: .532

COMMENT: Soriano missed 52 games, so above I extrapolated our projection to the 625 projected AB we thought he'd have (that's two more AB than Derrek Lee had for 155 games). That's pretty close.

Felix Pie

Projected: AB: 479 R: 68 H: 127 2B: 26 3B: 6 HR: 10 RBI: 52 BB: 35 SO: 106 SB: 21 CS: 7 AVG: .266 OBA: .315 SLG: .411 Actual: AB: 83 R: 9 H: 20 2B: 2 3B: 1 HR: 1 RBI: 10 BB: 7 SO: 29 SB: 3 CS: 0 AVG: .241 OBA: .312 SLG: .325 Jim Edmonds' Cub numbers: AB: 250 R: 47 H: 64 2B: 17 3B: 2 HR: 19 RBI: 49 BB: 45 SO: 58 SB: 0 CS: 1 AVG: .256 OBA: .369 SLG: .568

COMMENT: Obviously, this was one of our worst projections, as Pie spent most of the year at Iowa. Combine these two stat lines and you get pretty close to what we thought Pie would do alone, although with more HR. walks and strikeouts and, obviously, fewer steals.

Kosuke Fukudome

Projected: AB: 568 R: 92 H: 169 2B: 39 3B: 5 HR: 19 RBI: 88 BB: 72 SO: 99 AVG: .297 OBA: .376 SLG: .481 Actual: AB: 501 R: 79 H: 129 2B: 25 3B: 3 HR: 10 RBI: 58 BB: 81 SO: 104 AVG: .258 OBA: .359 SLG: .379

COMMENT: We, along with Cub management, seriously overestimated Dome's potential. Only the walks came close. If Fukudome is to be worth the money left on his deal, he's going to have to come closer to our 2008 projection in 2009 (and if he does, that'd solve a number of Cub problems).

Tomorrow: pitchers.

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