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2008 Cubs: Community Projection Review, Pitchers

It appears that the preseason project wasn't quite finished -- I only have final projection numbers for four pitchers, though I know we did three relievers as well as Jason Marquis and Jon Lieber.

Here are the four we did. If anyone would like to go through the Community Projections section and tabulate the others, I'll post the rest of them tomorrow.

Carlos Zambrano

Projected: G 34, GS 33, IP 221.2, H 172, ER 80, BB 89, SO 203, W 19, L 8, ERA 3.26, WHIP 1.18 Actual: G 30, GS 30, IP 188.2, H 172, ER 82, BB 72, SO 130, W 14, L 6, ERA 3.91, WHIP 1.29
COMMENT: Z missed some time on the DL and had his lowest start and inning total since he became a regular rotation starter in 2003. Still, extrapolate the numbers over four more starts (say, winning three of them) and this projection wasn't too far off.

Ted Lilly

Projected: G 32, GS 32, IP 201.2, H 186, ER 90, BB 67, SO 170, W 14, L 10, ERA 4.01, WHIP 1.26 Actual: G 34, GS 34, IP 204.2, H 187, ER 93, BB 64, SO 184, W 17, L 9, ERA 4.09, WHIP 1.23

COMMENT: Stand up and be proud of this one. We missed the W-L record, but everything else -- dead on.

Rich Hill

Projected: G 33, GS 33, IP 202.2, H 169, ER 81, BB 66, SO 197, W 15, L 9, ERA 3.61, WHIP 1.16 Actual: G 5, GS 5, IP 19.2, H 18, ER 9, BB 18, SO 15, W 1, L 0, ERA 4.12, WHIP 1.58

COMMENT: Obviously, no one anticipated Hill's utter meltdown and banishment to the minor leagues. The actual line doesn't look all that bad -- except for the walks, which is the reason the Cubs lost patience with him. He still hasn't gotten it back; he had one good start in winter ball and then had to be taken out of his second start with -- what else? -- control problems.

Ryan Dempster

Projected: G 39, GS 18, IP 122, H 124, ER 64, BB 64, SO 99, W 6, L 8, SV 1, ERA 4.73, WHIP 1.54 Actual: G 33, GS 33, IP 206.2, H 174, ER 68, BB 76, SO 187, W 17, L 6, SV 0, ERA 2.96, WHIP 1.21

COMMENT: Quite a number of people thought Dempster would wind up back in the bullpen, thus the low start projection and the one projected save. I was one of those people, projecting him to have 15 starts, 35 relief appearances and 7 wins, 7 losses and 7 saves. I couldn't be happier to have been wrong.

Again, we also did Jason Marquis, Jon Lieber, Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol and Kerry Wood. If someone would like to total up the projections (use the link above to go to the Community Projections section) and send them to me, I'll post the rest of the pitcher projection review tomorrow.

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This made me remember two things

How good Rich Hill was supposed to be this year, and how bad I thought Ryan Dempster was gonna be this year.

Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #14 6-2 (2-2). Next up at Baylor. Chase Coffman is a god.

by nji232 on Oct 29, 2008 8:50 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'd say we were far off on Zambrano...

Projecting 203 K in 33 starts when he wound up with 130 in 30 starts (would have been about 143 in 33 starts). And the ERA was off by about 2/3 of a run, arguably bumping him from the category of “ace” to the category of “#2-ish” starter.

Thankfully Dempster greatly exceeded expectations to make up for Hill greatly underperforming expectations this year.

by SouthernCub on Oct 29, 2008 8:52 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Damn

Given the W-L record is kind of out of the pitchers hands, we really nailed Lilly.

by gocubsgo22 on Oct 29, 2008 9:55 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Impressed with Lilly

I didn’t think the Cubs should have given all that money to an average American League pitcher. Lilly was pretty ordinary in the AL. I was surprised he did as well as he did with the Cubs in 2007. I was even more surprised with the 17 wins this season, given how poor Lilly started the season. Yeah, I know the win total for pitchers is overrated.

I see his 32 wins as a lefty for the Cubs the past two seasons is the most by a Cubs southpaw pitcher since Ken Holtzman had 34 wins combined in 1969 and 1970.

"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray

by memphiscub on Oct 29, 2008 10:54 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll say this about Lilly...

…he is the most consistant “competitor” on the Cubs roster.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 1:40 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't want to create a fanpost, but another aged player is available.

Garret Anderson, formerly of the Angels is 37 and a LH corner OF. He still has some pop and has been somewhat consistant the last three years.

He could be a cost effective RF with a one year deal to see what happens with fukudome.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 29, 2008 2:32 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Daryle Ward is a better defensive RF than Anderson.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 29, 2008 5:36 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We should offer him arbitration,

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 29, 2008 3:27 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, we shouldn't.

Because he’d accept.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 5:05 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You don't think anyone will offer him two years?

There are a lot of teams who build bullpens through FA…

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 29, 2008 5:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not a chance, after last year's performance.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 29, 2008 7:40 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If Eric Gagne was offered $10 million last year after his dismal performance in Boston,

I think there’s a reasonable chance other teams will be interested in Howry. It seems there are always teams desperate enough for bullpen help to gamble on veteran who has had succes in the past.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 29, 2008 10:51 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe, but...

… Howry is four years older now (35) than Gagne was after last year (31). That would make the difference between a reclamation project and a guy who’s just about done.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 30, 2008 10:48 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gagne's case is a little different...

…because he had those years where he was basically unhittable and the Brewers were hoping some of that was still in him.

Howry has been a solid reliever, but has never had the dominance that Gagne once had.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 30, 2008 11:10 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agree...

…I think the old boy is clearly running downhill fast.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 29, 2008 6:25 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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