Statistics smile on the Cubs... sort of..

by Dave37 on Oct 3, 2008 11:52 AM CDT Comment 16 comments

We started hearing it after game one, and after game two it was deafening - everybody was talking about all of the reasons the Cubs wouldn't come back, couldn't come back.

By now you've heard about how history hates the Cubs' chances - teams down 2-0 almost never come back. You've heard about how the Cubs have lost 8 straight playoff games. Even if you subscribe the the theory that two good teams have a 50-50 shot of winning any game, that gives the Cubs a 12.5% chance of winning the next 3.

In order to cheer myself (and hopefully a few of you as well) up, I decided to forget about the concept of "playoffs." What it comes down to now, October or otherwise, is that the Cubs must win 3 straight games. They've done plenty of times it before - why not again?

I went through the '08 season and looked independently at every 3 game sample to see how many times the result was 3 wins and 0 losses. The results aren't exactly encouraging, but they're better than what we've been seeing:

3-game samples: 159 (161 games played)

3-0: 38

Less than 3-0: 121

% of 3-0: 23.9

So there you have it. Think of the Cubs as having a near-24% chance of winning this series... it's not enough to make me want to dance around the room listening to Eddie Vedder, but it's something.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 16 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I'm not throwing in the towel

And as a side note, that Eddie Vedder song is sooo good!!!

"Okay, just so I understand it...in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil."- Jim Halpert

by ryanbrixenivy on Oct 3, 2008 11:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Add in how many times the Dodgers lost 3 in a row and your % may go up.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 3, 2008 12:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty resigned to the fact

that this season is all but over, but as our beloved #10 always says, “Baseball is a funny game.” Anything could happen…..let’s just hope it does.

by deutschegirl67 on Oct 3, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, this is about specific matchups.

I like Harden’s chances, and frankly, Lilly’s chances even better. I seriously think the Cubs should have started Lilly in game 1, and I thought that well before game1. Lilly has a mental toughness that would have been a big plus in the opening game. Yeah, Lilly is probably less talented than the other starters, but talent is not everything. And I don’t think Lilly is as prone to giving up bunches of runs and collapsing.

This isn’t over unless the Cubs quit on themselves. The look on the players’ faces last night was not reassuring. Maybe with a day to travel, reflect, and regroup, we’ll see a new team in LA. Not counting on it, but not ruling it out. You gotta play ’em one game at a time.

by Carolina Cubbie on Oct 3, 2008 12:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I still like their chances also

I think Harden and Lilly can get this series back to Chicago for a game 5. It’s all a matter of whether or not the Cubs are going to start putting some runs on the board anytime soon.

I think you make a good case for Lilly starting the first game because of the way he has pitched lately. However, I can sort of see why the rotation was set up the way it was. Dempster and Zambrano are generally groundball pitchers. This year, they have both given up 60-80 more groundballs than fly balls. And we all know Wrigley is really a hitter’s park. Harden and Lilly on the other hand are about the exact opposite and give up way more fly balls than ground balls. And once again, everyone knows Los Angeles is a great place to pitch, and if you’re going to give up a lot of fly balls, do it there.

I think the rotation was set up correctly, but the Cubs need to wake up their bats somehow.

by rambler19 on Oct 3, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may be depressed ...

but I won’t totally give up

by coral on Oct 3, 2008 12:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Right now...

…I don’t give a shit about statistics. What I want, is for a few players to show some balls, get pissed and make a statement.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 3, 2008 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs

Jesus Christ, why are you so awesome?

This is the best post today, worth a recommendation from this whole community.

"Looks like Milwaukee got their No Hitter" -ak123

by NittanyCub on Oct 3, 2008 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same here

Even if they lose, I hope they go down fighting till the last out. I don’t care about statistics, momentum, or silly goddamn curses. I care about them going out there and proving that those 97 wins were not a fluke.

by mkacer on Oct 3, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hell yeah

something along the lines of the “dust-up” in Tampa. Or something. I have seen almost no evidence that this teams wants it. I think they’ve convinced themselves that by virtue of the regular season they are entitled to a trip to the World Series.

by bms on Oct 3, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure...

…its because they feel entitled, I tend to think its because they lack the ability to step up (like you need to) in the playoffs. Now, if they can get it together and win this series, maybe the statement I made is wrong, but if they go quietly, you have to really wonder about the makeup of the club.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 3, 2008 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs