Here's a Name That Defintely Has Not Been Brought Up.
by dakoose on Oct 30, 2008 5:45 PM CDT
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PrintHere's yet another trade idea, although the impact of this one might not be felt this year.
Today the Marlins traded Mike Jacobs to the Royals in return for Leo Nunez, who for some odd reason Fox Sports considers an elite reliever. A fanpost went up earlier today discussing how that deal could affect the Cubs from a Marlins perspective. I'm going to look at it from a Royals perspective. After reading that insane post about acquiring Nick Markakis, I went over to Camden Chat to see what was going on ever there and found a discussion centered around a name I didn't expect to see, Billy Butler. Apparently, with the Royals having acquired Mike Jacobs they now see Butler, who Royals management has soured on, as expendable. The source for that rumor is not a real good one, but here it is. http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2008/10/memo-to-dmgm-wtf.html
ESPN's Keith Law doesn't think it will take much to get him, only a couple of mid-level prospects. Let me make this clear: I am not advocating having Butler begin next season as our starting first baseman, but he could be two years down the road, and sooner if things go really well for him. Butler is only twenty two years old but has already shown the ability to hit major league pitching. Back in 2007, over 350ish AB's, he displayed the ability to hit major league pitching. He doesn't project to be a huge home run hitter, rather a 20-30 home run hitter with lots of doubles. He took a small step back this year, but he's still very, very young and was playing for an organization that doesn't like him. The problem with Butler is that he is not a good defensive player, but that can be fixed with time in the minor leagues. All in all, Butler seems to be a high upside player that can be acquired for a price that a player with his talent shouldn't be. I think the Cubs should go for him. What this does for the Cubs is allow them to not have to look for a long term solution at first base this off-season, rather a solid player who can hold down the position for another year or so until Butler is ready. Let me know what you guys think.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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butler
Ive watched butler in person a BUNCH! if I had to bet my life savings on him, heres what it would be—-JUST ENOUGH! just enough to stay in the majors,but not enough to ever be a starter.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
I haven't seen him in person,
but his career numbers thus far suggest that he already is good enough to lay in the majors. The fact that he is just twenty two and held his own in the American League are reasons to think that he could become a good player down the road.
Butler has potential.
But I don’t see Jacobs as KC’s first baseman. Rather, I think they’ll install him at DH, with Butler sliding over to 1B (where Ross Gload played most of the games last year).
So Jacobs replaces Gload on KC’s roster — that’s a major upgrade.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
One would think they would do that,
but they also have Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka`aihue, both of whom they like as much or more than Butler. Dayton Moore is not a fan of the kid and I expect him to be in a different organization by next season.
And as to Jacobs being a major upgrade to Gload, thats just damning him with faint praise. Gload shouldn’t even be in the major league. Jacobs is a very low end staring first baseman. The Royals have a glut of low end first baseman who have the upside to be something more. I don’t get the move, and judging from responses on Royals Review, neither do Royals fans.
Maybe, as suggested elsewhere, Jacobs is going to be flipped.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Pretty Sensible
Especially for a fanpost..ha
Butler and Hermida both seem to be waning in their franchises approval ratings. What would be nice is if Vitters develops ahead of schedule, they can bring him up and move either him or Ramirez to first base, but thats probably wishful thinking.
The Royals seem to have a glut of 1B/DH guys now b/t Jacobs, Butler, Teahan and even Gordon has played some first, so I bet this is the first domino for the Royals.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
Don't forget about Jovan Rosa
He’s a first baseman, and he’ll be in Daytona. If his power develops, he has a smooth swing that should generate a solid average. If so, he could become a viable option as soon as 2010 (that’d be a best case scenario). I think he could be at Tennessee, with a darkhorse shot of Iowa, by the end of 2009.
Intriguing.
Rosa turned 21 this week. If he progresses next year, he could indeed be an option by 2010.
He hit 43 doubles for Peoria this year.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
It's a good thing
That signs point to Vitters being able to stick at 3rd, otherwise I’d be utterly frustrated with Rosa, a personal favorite, being unable to play third. But if Vitters can handle 3rd and Rosa develops his pop (and the guy has a good swing), then we suddenly can look down the line and see future corners. We have more than enough 2nd base options (and I’m going over it and thinking I’ve been a bit too harsh on Tony Thomas), offering 3 spots where we can see a potential future at. That leaves short, where the uber-talented Castro is exciting, but a long way away (unless you think Barney develops, which I don’t see right now but isn’t impossible). That leaves OF, where we have some options, although we could use more.
A lot of if’s, and as of now, not a lot of depth (I mean, it’s 1 player at 1st/SS/3rd that really intrigues me from rookie ball and up), but it is some hope. I’m thankful we were able to sign Rosa in the final draft and follow year. The thing I’m really hoping to see is some frontline pitching development in 2009, as I don’t see anyone that shows front of the rotation potential from rookie ball on up without needing significantly more development to show said potential.
What happened to the Korean SS we signed last year?
I know he’s a long way off, but I hadn’t heard anything about him.
by dr stabbingworth on Oct 31, 2008 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Darwin Barney
Was part of the two-time National Champion Oregon State Beavers, my dad’s school. Heckuva college ballplayer, to be sure. I’m rooting for him to develop well. I still have memories of my mom and little sister gushing about how dreamy he was while my dad and I were trying to watch the CWS.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
Billy Butler??
I like the Vitters idea down the line better. As for 09……I like Al’s Huff/Millar idea………as long as brian Roberts comes along.
Sign Milton Bradley!!
Why?
The Cubs only use a DH 6 times a season. If his knees and hamstrings don’t get better, he’ll be no better than Ken Griffey in RF.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
when he plays
he plays exceptionally well. when he is not playing, we have plenty of depth behind him. Dome, Pie can both play right field and be the lefty in the lineup if Bradley goes down.
You get him at a cheaper price because of his injury history, so that has to be taken into account also.
OPS+ in 2007: 153
OPS+ in 2008: 163
Those numbers would lead the Cubs the past two years.
Does not strike out a lot, takes his walks, hits for power, hits for average and can steal bases. LH, still in his prime and would not cost a lot.
You’re fooling yourself if you mention him and Ken Griffey, Jr. in the same sentence.
bring up felix.
Supposedly, Gameboard is demanding a three year contract.
Do you want to be on the hook for three years of a guy whose body can’t stand the rigors of playing the OF daily and will likely have a major explosion in year two?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
The Cubs could wait him out
Given his injury history, a 2-year deal with a vesting option (based on Plate Appearances), could work.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
I think that there are enough AL teams (including the Rangers)
who feel safer about 3 guaranteed years because of the DH slot. It would be nice if they all passed, but I doubt it.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
The Rangers are the ones I worry about
Seemed like things went relatively fine down there for Milton this year.
I could see plenty of teams passing because of past history, no need and because they’ve already had Milton (Oakland and Cleveland in the AL).
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
as long as pie and dome are on the team
and they should be for the next three years, we have insurance if the guy goes down.
bring up felix.
freudian slip?
My guess is you forgot an apostrophe and intended to say " i’ll hop…" but if we’re talking about Milton Bradley, ill hop is probably more appropriate… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Billy Butler is a good player, but
the Cubs will be expending all their resources to win now and a RH-slugger with no position doesn’t fit their immediate needs/goals. I’d love to see the Cubs buy low on Butler. I just don’t see it happening.
Let’s imagine we are a fictional team, the Illinois Orphans and we’re looking around at the other 30 teams in the league. We want a good buy low candidate who can play CF. Ideally he’d have some speed since Lou wants to get “younger and more athletic” and he’d play some good defense in case the bat faltered as it often does for rookies coming up. We definitely prefer left-handers, especially if they have some power potential. Who on the other 30 teams might we look at?
Well, there’s a guy who fits that description on an a division rival. He’s never really had a chance to prove it at the ML level and his manager has bad mouthed him publicly, so we can probably get him cheap. Of course, it’s Felix Pie.
The point? If we aren’t going to give Pie a chance, whom we don’t even have to trade to get, then why should we think the Cubs would give Butler or Brandon Wood or similar players a chance?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
You make a good point.
Lou doesn’t stick to his youngsters. But whats to say that Butler would be up by next year. He doesn’t need to be on next year’s twenty-five man. That said, I agree with you. Hendry is in win-now mode and probably won’t look towards these types of acquisitions, even though he should be.
Does Butler even have any options left?
He’s been up and down for a while. I would seriously doubt that he would have the two needed to stretch him until DLee’s contract is up.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
He stuck with Soto, Marmol, Theriot Fontenot and even Shark.
I think he throws them out there with a sink or swim mentality. He gives young players a chance, it’s up to them to take advantage of the opportunity they are given.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 30, 2008 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions
You're absolutely right,
but he expects people to swim in the first five minutes. Just look back to Eric Patterson’s yo-yo year. Lou was able to hit his first time, right out of the chute. I’m not sure he understands how many other prospects can take weeks to figure it out when they first come up. It may not even be that, exactly, because baseball’s a game where you go through hot stretches and cold stretches and some prospects are bound to go through cold stretches their first time in the big leagues. But with Lou, you better start hot, or you may not get another shot.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Thats exactly right.
Lou expects youngsters to be productive major leaguers immediately. The truth is that it takes time, and more often than not a youngster will struggle in his first major league stint. It doesn’t help that the Cubs kind of screwed with Pie, playing him as a middle of the order type bat in the minors but expecting him to be a sparkplug in the majors.
I disagree with the statement that Lou expects instant results out of youngsters
That is reactionary statement that has gained a life of its own around here. Based on what??? The fact that Lou Piniella and his 45 years of baseball experience didn’t think Felix Pie could hit major league pitching and therefore asked Hendry to send him down.
Lou has had a history of fine young players emerge and prosper under his managerial helm in New York, Cincinnati, Seattle, Tampa Bay and now in Chicago. To include Geo Soto, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Carlos Marmol and Jeff Spellcheck.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
Reactionary Statements
What exactly is a reactionary statement? Is it when you give no evidence of reading the whole post and recycle one of your old ripostes (again)? Is it when the original post is talking about Eric Patterson and you inexplicably come back to Felix Pie (again)? Is it the listing of players who all had immediate success as if that rebuts the idea that Lou expects immediate success?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Its easy...
…to blame the manager, so why not. It certaintly couldn’t be that Pie wasn’t ready (and Lou wasn’t alone in that opinion).
Guys, there have been young players that Lou has trotted out there and he was right to because he had the right read on them and they produced. With Pie, I don’t think he ever wanted him to come north with the club, he wanted him along with others to work on his swing at AAA.
You can say Pie would have found him self if he got 40-50 games to show it, but that is just speculation. For the most part (besides rare flashes), the kid looked badly over matched. I’ll say what I have said many times before, the kid was not guided properly in the minors and you are seeing Corey Patterson Jr., with a better attitude.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I think one of the most difficult things for an organization to do
is try to win and develop young players at the same time. Over the last 2 years, the Cubs have done a decent job of incorporating some of their home grown players (both position and pitchers) into the team. It will be interesting to see if they will continue to do so after the flop in the playoffs the last 2 seasons or if they do a 180 and trade young talent for established players.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
What makes it more difficult...
…is when you haven’t had a lot of players that have compelled you to put them on the field for any extended period of time. Besides Soto (from a position player standpoint), it has been over a decade of improperly prepared and or mis-evaluated talent.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
That's a good point.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree 100%
This constant harping that Piniella won’t let rookies succeed is garbage. He gave Soto, Marmol and Theriot shots. Look at how he used Fontenot this year. He was using Gallagher before he was traded.
I will agree that Piniella doesn’t have faith in Pie but it is more based on Pie rather than some hatred of rookies. Just because Piniella doesn’t give all rookies shots doesn’t mean he doesn’t like them.
Take a look at the numbers of Patterson and Murton in Oakland. Maybe Lou knows something about who can play and who can’t. Of course, I suspect that someone will bring up the excuse that they were ruined by Piniella’s handling and they would have been stars if only the Cubs had a manager that liked rookies.
Nobody thinks Lou doesn't give rookies shots,
it’s just that he doesn’t stick with them long enough. Like DGU said, he expects immediate results from the types of players that are bound to struggle off the bat. Look at the players that Lou has stuck with, they all exhibited some type of success right off the bat. Sometimes you gotta go through the growing pains.
That is difficult to do when an organization is trying to win now.
Winning this year is the organization’s philosophy and why they hired Lou. He has to determine very quickly which players can help the team achieve that goal this year.
Overall, I think the Cubs have done a much better job since Lou has been there in incorporating young players. At least Lou gives them a chance, it’s up to them to take advantage of it.
Yes, It’s a difficult situation for young players at times, but not really that different in the “real” world.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
No it is not difficult to do.
No he does not have to decide quickly.
He does not. He should not.
To make snap judgments about players is foolish.
I can’t believe so many Cub fans lose sight of the idea that baseball is a marathon when we led the whole “race” only to be passed up at the end.
What does “Win now” mean? Does it mean, as Lou played the season in his 0-6 Genius, “win the immediate game in front of you?” Well, we did that 97 times. Yay rah.
How about we try to “Win Now” as in “Win the World Series” which means playing the regular season games to maximize the talent you have ready to play on your post-season roster. For Santo’s sake, if you’re going to put Pie on the post-season roster, play the guy at least those last 5 games of the season to maximize his utility. This is BASIC competence.
So, the pious believers in Louian Infallibility can frame their Bob Howry autographed NL Central championship photos and smile to each other, “Felix Pie would never have worked.” Of course, I wasn’t talking about Pie, but Eric Patterson, but Eric Patterson will never work either, right, ’cause, you know, Lou is always right.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I guess we fundamentally disagree on this issue.
I don’t think baseball is much different than “real” life. You have to take advantage of opportunities when you have the chance and if you don’t, it’s on you. If the player doesn’t take advantage of the opportunity they are given, how is it the manager’s fault?
While I agree that this is not “fair” but the reality is that life is not fair. You have to seize the opportunity when it is presented or someone else will. That is the reality we all live in and baseball is no different.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions
We do appear to have fundamentally different points of view here.
For starters, I’m not looking at this from the prospect’s perspective. I don’t care if Lou is fair or a raging tyrant.
He doesn’t need to give Les Walrdond a shot. He doesn’t need to give Jason Dubois a shot. I don’t care about low-ceiling players not getting a shot.
All I care about is getting the best team with the best preparation on the field in October. To do that means playing the high-talent players to give them ample opportunity to figure things out. It means being willing to win your division by half as many games in the regular season if that ups your percentage to win a single post-season game by even 5%. That’s what “Win Now” means.
Did no one watch Tampa Bay do this? They stuck with struggling players like Evan Longoria and Aki Iwamura and Carlos Pena and Rocco Baldelli and BJ Upton (once Lou was gone, they stuck with Upton anyway). They reaped rewards (once Lou was gone). Maybe it wasn’t fair. Maybe it was. Who cares? Just win.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Oct 31, 2008 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again...
…each player is a unique situation that stands alone. Also, it is a lot easier for a Tampa Bay to be EXTREMELY patient with their young players for obvious reasons I shouldn’t need to explain.
See through the stats a player initially delivers for just a minute, and grasp the idea that a talent evaluator is looking at more than that. If they see a player that shows signs they are getting it, they will have a different prognosis them someone they feel is not getting it. It has much more to do than if a player immediately delivers production.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I want talent evaluators, not just stats.
Scouts bring a lot to the table. Don’t get me wrong on scouts. After all, most of my argument on Pie is based on scouting data compiled by Baseball America and outlets like them
But let’s move the discussion away from Pie who is an unfruitful lightning rod. We all watched Jim Edmonds look absolutely ugly at the plate. Maybe a trained talent evaluator saw something beyond the horrific plate appearances we saw. Lou, if I recall correctly, though, was giving up hope publicly, too… just as Jimmy got it.
That’s my point. Patience paid off with Jim Edmonds.
Patience is part of winning now.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Isn't this easy to say in hindsight?
Sure Tampa Bay’s a great example of sticking with struggling players because they made it to the World Series. But I’m guessing that there are other teams this year that stuck with struggling players and didn’t do so hot.
I’m not dismissing your argument out of hand – just that it’s an easy one to make after the season. I’d be more impressed if someone makes that argument in June.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
And here I thought I've been overly repetitious on this point... since June.
This isn’t new with Tampa Bay. This is what Boston is doing. This is what the Rockies are doing. This is what the Yankees have started doing since Cano came up. This is what the smarter teams are generally doing – sticking with their youth through struggles because cost-controlled prospects are the most valuable players given the free agent market lately.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
There is nothing wrong...
…with making a relatively quick judgment if it is the right decision for the long term development of the player. Better to get a player on the right track quickly, than to have him go backwards in a position he shouldn’t be in.
Lastly, no one if right about these guys 100% of the time (or even close to that). But, I’ll add this, Piniella was brought in here (by McDonough’s recommendation as well) for his “real-time” talent evaluation skills as much as his managing skills. Anyone could see the Cubs were sorely lacking in this area during the Baker days and Hendry was not making up for that short coming with his own decisions.
If you look at what McDonough did with the Hawks it was the same thing. He brought in the best hockey mind available to help the organization determine the right course and he made up his mind they would listen and follow that guys direction. IMO, he had the same thing in mind, when they chose Piniella over a fan favorite like Girardi.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Heavens to mergatroid
The underlying assumption to your argument is that a Eric Patterson or a Felix Pie (to use real examples) are destined for major league success. Your argument completely throws out the window the talent evaluation ability of Lou Piniella. A guy who has been in the game 45 years and managed 5 ballclubs over a nearly 20 year span. To you Piniella is a clueless idiot when it comes to evaluating young talent. But the dirty little secret is that your petty argument doesn’t align with reality. Look at the teams Piniella has managed in New York, Cincy, Seattle, Tampa Bay and here in Chicago and you will identify a shitload of young talent that got its first major league shot and flourished under his leadership.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
As inevitable as the rising sun.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Riddle me this...
Why is your assessment of Felix Pie something that should trump the talent evaluation ability of Lou PIniella and members of the Cub organization?? Simply because Pie was once a Top 3 Ranked Prospect in this organization means that he should automatically be granted lengthy major league sample size to develop and prove his potential?!? And what says you that the major league at bats already granted Felix Pie weren’t enough for Lou PIniella to make declaration to the negative on Pie?!?
Again, the premise of all these arguments is that Piniella is a biased dull witted crumedgeon. Even though his nearly 20 history of managing argues to the extreme contrary. There have been many ballplayers who have gotten their first major league taste and subsequently thrived under Lou Piniella. To include our very own Geovany Soto, Mike Fontenot and Carlos Marmol.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
No, that's not the premise of "all" these arguments.
That’s your laughable, unreasonable bias. And my assessment shouldn’t trump anything – I’m just a fan. I do get to have an opinion, though.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Kind of an example
of a person seeing what they WANT to see, huh?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I disagree with you completely.
For one thing, I am not sure what win-now means. A legitimate organization plans for both the now and the future at the same time. The White Sox came into this season with a win-now mentality and threw John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Alexei Ramirez right into the fire. None of those players had good starts to their big league careers yet Ozzie stuck with them. they all would have gone into Lou’s doghouse. The way Lou dealt with Rich Hill was absurd. Four starts? Obviously the situations are a bit different, but the point is that a manager has to realize that it takes time. I have heard Lou say “baseball is a marathon” plenty of times yet he fails to realize that players go through the same rough stretches as teams do. Players slump, and rookies do it even more often. Does anyone honestly think the Cubs could not have won the central without giving Pie a few hundred AB’s? The Red Sox also throw some of their yougsters in the fire. I like Lou as a manager, but thats it. I don’t love him and won’t be all that upset when he decides to step away.
Now that you mention it...
…when I think of Felix Pie, I can’t help also thinking of Jacoby Ellsbury. The Red Sox gave him over 600 PAs this season and, though he turned in a rather paltry .730 OPS, he still gave the team solid defense in centerfield and stole them 50 bags. Oh, and they won the Wild Card and the ALDS.
Don’t get me wrong – I’m no Lou hater either. And, sure, the RJ/Edmonds platoon was fun to watch. But I can’t help but wonder what Pie could have done for the Cubs season.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Don't forget, when he strugged,
Ellsbury sat and Cocoa Crisp played.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
True...
…it seemed like Crisp played most of the postseason. But that just shows how Francona shifted his lineup to account for the playoffs, something perhaps Lou could’ve done a little more of.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
If only
the Cubs had lasted more than 3 games in the playoffs, I think you may have seen Lou shuffle things around more as he did that quite a bit in the regular season. It’s just that it was over so quickly…so many what if’s come to mind.
I still can’t believe they were swept……..
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Rewind a few years...
Remember Corey Patterson? The same Corey Patterson that this organization invested nearly 1,500 major league at bats in only to FINALLY and mercifully come to the conclusion that he sucked?
Again, too many of you declare that Felix Pie (or Eric Patterson or Matt Murton) are going to be good ballplayers in the bigs. You don’t care what Lou Piniella or member of the Cub organization really think. It is your fundamental argument that since Pie (or some of these other names) should automatically be granted X number of major league at bats to develop and prove their longer-term worth. As if by some declaration that if you were ever ranked among the top 10 prospects in the organization you automatically shall be granted sizable major league sample size.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
The differences between Patterson and Pie...
…have been pointed out so often and in such great detail that only someone consciously trying to ignore them could not be aware of them at this point. So, by all means, continue to ignore and vent your righteous indignity.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
I'm not comparing Patterson and Pie...
What I said is that Patterson was another famously hyped “can’t miss” prospect of recent vintage. You still haven’t answered my question…
WHY should Felix Pie (or Eric Patterson, or whomever you want to bring up from the farm system) automatically be granted meaningful major league sample size to prove their worth?? Some guys DO need a year or two of big league indoctrination to figure things out. In other cases the organization sees things that make them objectively pull the plug early on the experiment.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
Why should he?
Well, we can start with the fact that he’s had substantial success at every level of professional baseball that he’s played in. We could continue with the fact that he’s 23 years old. And we could end with the very real possibilty that he’s the best defensive player in the Cubs organization.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
I am, too.
I wasn’t expecting a substantive response, but I was expecting to be called an “asswipe.”
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
I don't think its immediate results...
…he demands, but more along the lines of whether additional time is warranted for a particular player. Some of that is based on a talent evaluators opinion on how a player looks, and not the stats, although Pie’s stats were not impressive.
People can harp on this till the cows come home, but Lou was not the only one who felt Pie needed more time in AAA.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The basic point of disagreement between defenders of Pie and attackers of Pie
is that the defenders of Pie claim they don’t know the future. Attackers of Pie KNOW he’d never have worked out, because Lou said so.
Raul Ibanez.
B.J. Upton.
Carlos Guillen.
There’s three guys Infallible Lou knew couldn’t cut it. Three guys Lou forced off his ML squad.
It’s time to stop the “Corey Patterson Jr.” nonsense. Corey Patterson was mishandled at every level. He never succeeded at the advanced minor league levels. Felix Pie succeeded at every level where Lou Piniella was not his manager. There’s a lot more warrant to say Raul Ibanez, Jr. than Corey Patterson, Jr.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Obviously...
…your opinion is that Lou Piniella is not a good evaluator of whether a player is major league ready. In that regard, who in the Cubs organization would have a better background to make this call?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Haven't we danced this dance before?
I am not working in absolutes.
Lou is wrong sometimes and right sometimes.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Of course he is...
…who isn’t?
With that said, praise the lord the Cubs finally have a legitimate talent evaluator on board (especially in regards to hitting, which is the hardest thing to project).
I would expect the very best to be wrong sometimes, but I don’t think any of has a crystal ball that says he is or isn’t.
I’ll take Piniella’s opinion on whether a player is major league ready, all day long over anyone else in the Cub’s organization.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Relevant to me
is that this isn’t just Lou v. Hendry. This is Lou v. all the other scouts whose voices are required for a player to get as high as top 25 in the BA Top 100 list.
And let’s also be clear about something. Once the Cubs had Jim Edmonds on roster, I said, go with Edmonds – he’s high-ceiling, too. What I objected to was playing Reed Johnson against RHP when we knew how that was going to work out.
Lou may or may not have been wrong about Pie. And we may never know because we can’t tell what impact Lou’s coaching had on Pie for + or -. But once Pie’s on roster, it’s pretty simple to just run him out there v. RHP and see what happens.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Do you think...
…Lou is the only guy who felt Pie wasn’t ready? It was widely reported by Cubs beat reporters, that the brain trust was split on whether Pie would pan out this year. I have also heard the same from another source with close Cub connections. There was a group of scouts etc. on Lou’s side and a group that was on Hendry’s side and they were basically split down the middle.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
You're right about the larger organizational split.
There was more than one viewpoint, something MDBNIU continually misrepresents.
I’m talking about scouts outside of the Cubs organization. Felix Pie doesn’t rate Top 50 two years in a row if the Cubs are the only ones talking him up.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I don' deny that...
…and how often have we seen these highly touted guys not pan out when they get to the show? The answer is, quite often.
Hitting is the most difficult thing a baseball player has to do, and it is also the most difficult thing for a talent evaluator to predict – how a player will adapt from AAA to the bigs.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
An exercise I don't know how it will turn out as I begin it.
Here’s the top 25 prospects in 2001:
1. Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays
2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs
3. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
4. Jon Rauch, rhp, White Sox
5. Ben Sheets, rhp, Brewers
6. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres
7. C.C. Sabathia, lhp, Indians
8. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners
9. Ichiro Suzuki, of, Mariners
10. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
11. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers
12. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
13. Roy Oswalt, rhp, Astros
14. Drew Henson, 3b, Reds
15. Chin-Hui Tsao, rhp, Rockies
16. Antonio Perez, ss, Mariners
17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs
18. Alex Escobar, of, Mets
19. Jerome Williams, rhp, Giants
20. Bobby Bradley, rhp, Pirates
21. J.R House, c, Pirates
22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs
23. Joe Borchard, of, White Sox
24. Austin Kearns, of, Reds
25. Chris George, lhp, Royals
There are obviously some names on there we never saw succeed at the ML level. What strikes me are the numbers of players who were given up on by their parent team to succeed elsewhere and the numbers who succeeded briefly and are now gone or struggling mightily.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Some good, some bad...
…and it all comes down to the evaluation of each individual player, who is doing the evaluation and whether they are in the best position to draw a conclusion they believe in.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
The point when looking at the list though
is that even among the top 25, nearly half are complete failures. A quick grouping into good, ok, bad….
Good (7): Hamilton, Beckett, Sheets, Sabathia, Suzuki, Wells, Oswalt
OK (7): Patterson, Rauch, Johnson, C Pena, Cruz, Choi, Kearns
Bad (11): Burroughs, Anderson, Henson, Tsao, Perez, Escobar, Williams, Bradley, House, Borchard, George
Many of the bad ones were due to injury either. Players like Borchard and Escobar never could adjust to major league hitting.
I can't quite bring myself...
…to call Corey Patterson “OK.”
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Hm, that works!
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
who was given up on and succeeded elsewhere?
I guess it depends how you define “given up” and “succeeded elsewhere”, but when I look at that list, the only one that reasonably fits that bill is Carlos Pena.
I don’t think the Rays “gave up” on Hamilton – if anything, he gave up on himself, at least in the short term. Took him awhile to get his head and body straight. Beckett was traded in a deal that netted the Marlins H.Ramirez. Rauch and Kearns aren’t exactly “successes”.
Seems like most of the give ups pretty much still suck, and the successes either stayed with their team or were part of legitimate trades.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
Rauch, Johnson, Choi, Pena, Cruz
all found success after being traded. Sure their success has been limited, but they still gave good years during their cheap times. I don’t count Hamilton because of his situation being unique.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
the scariest thing about that list is the number of Cubs
and the fact that none of them really panned out. Kinda says something about the organizations ability to develop players (in the past at least)
by philadelphiacub on Nov 3, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
Just a clarification,
Felix does not qualify for prospect lists any longer as he has spent too much time on a MLB roster.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
Right,
I’m talking about 2006-2007, not to mention the years before.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Upton was 20 when Lou left Tampa Bay in 2005
As a 21 year-old, his numbers were .246 / .302 / .291. As a 20 year old, I’m pretty sure he probably wasn’t ready.
With Ibanez you may have a point as Piniella should have probably played him over the aging Buhner. With Guillen, Piniella did give him two seasons with over 400 AB’s. He did ok but nothing spectacular.
Adding to Guillen
He was traded from Seattle after Piniella left. So in Piniella’s last season in Seattle he gave Guillen 475 AB’s. I wouldn’t call that forcing him off the roster.
You have a point with Ibanez.
It's a more general point.
Lou does not always get the best out of his players. Sometimes he undervalues men with real talent.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Obviously
Mike Piazza was drafted in the last round. Baseball people make mistakes. Lou has made his share. My point is that Piniella doesn’t have anything against rookies as some people (not necessarily you) say. He doesn’t always demand immediate production. He doesn’t in all cases play a veteran over a rookie. Upton was not ready at 20. He was still in AA throwing tantrums and bats.
However, this whole discussion comes down to Pie. It is obvious Lou doesn’t like him. Maybe it is his approach. Maybe Piniella didn’t like that Pie didn’t seem to come to Spring Training utilizing what Perry and Piniella spent the winter working on. I think there is a lot more here than Pie not coming out of the gate hitting .300. Piniella isn’t stupid enough to expect that every rookie will immediately hit.
Exactly, Lou is doing
what he thinks is best for the player and the team.
Some people have made it out that Lou doesn’t like Felix and I don’t think that is the case. I don’t think he likes his approach.
Because Felix is a player with options, the team had the luxury of sending him to the minor leagues to correct that approach. You don’t have that option with a veteran player, you can either let them try to work it out or sit them on the bench.
He tried both options with Fukodome and neither worked. The major leagues is a difficult setting to work out approach issues and the best thing to do is send a player to the minor leagues to work on things. (Brett Myers was sent to the minor leagues to change his approach from a reliever to a starter and it helped him enormously).
You can agree or disagree with the philosophy and but I think Lou’s intention is to do the best thing for both the player and the team. Whether the solution to a struggling player is to keep that player (young or old) in the lineup to let them work out their issues, sitting them, or sending them to the minor leagues is a matter of opinion.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Does it come down to Pie?
My original example, which no one has talked about in the threads coming down from that post, was Eric Patterson. Patterson, this season, came up, had an 0-4 game and was back down again. He came up, had an 0-4 game and was back down again. Then he came up, went 3-5, and got to play.
That’s not good for a prospect, to get one game’s shot. I talked about this in Al’s “What Has to Be Done to Win” Series – if you show faith in players, it can motivate them to want to reward your faith. If your managerial posture looks like you’re waiting to pounce on them in case of failure, it can cause them to tense up and get frustrated.
I said above or below or wherever it is now that patience is part of winning now.
In the same way, showing faith in talent (even if you may be doubting it and secretly planning backup options) is part of winning now.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I think the evaluation is longer than how you are stating it.
Players are evaluated by the major league staff during Spring Training. The evaluation is not just the results on the field but also in the preparation and work ethic of the players.
During that time, the major league manager and coaches form opinions on players that have a direct effect on who is called up, particularly early on in the year.
While we may agree or disagree on the conclusions that are being made from the talent evaluation that is being done, I think there is more involved than many people have presented.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Why in the world was Eric Patterson called up
for two games twice? If the evaluation was longer and Lou didn’t expect him to succeed, he shouldn’t have been called up at all.
But he was called up. And he was sent down on the basis of 5 ABs TWICE.
Something is unprofessional there.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
You've lost me now
This is about Eric Patterson? At least Pie was a highly regarded prospect.
I’m surely not going to question Piniella or the Cubs over the handling of Patterson. So what he was called up and sent back down after a few AB’s? He was called up because the Cubs needed a warm body not because Piniella wanted to give him an audition.
Warm body = Matt Murton
I remember reading somewhere that the Cubs called up Patterson instead of Murton to see what they had in E-Pat. Wish I could cite the source by memory.
I’m not defending Eric Patterson. I’m not saying Eric Patterson was the second coming of Ray Durham.
I’m saying no one can tell whether Eric Patterson will be useful or not based on 6 ABs. Well, no one except, apparently, Lou.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Injuries can force call-ups ups players
Who knows what kind career Eric Patterson (or any young player) will have. To this point, Eric has not performed in the major leagues but has put up decent number in the minors. Time will tell if he will have a major league career or will be a bust.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Eric Patterson is a Willie Harris type
Are you REALLY going to get worked up over Lou Piniella presumably jerking Eric Patterson around on a playoff contending team?? C’mon. Patterson at his peak will be a Willie Harris type utility player in this league. And it’s no sure thing he can even obtain that status.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
The point
is that Patterson is another data point showing Lou’s apparent tendency to expect immediate success. Fontenot had immediate success and Lou stuck with him, despite the fact that most scouts looking at the Cubs organization thought Patterson could do everything Fontenot could do and more. Lou was right on Fontenot and I use Fontenot as an example to remind you that my viewpoint is not black and white on Lou.
Regardless, the point remains that Lou does not appear to have patience to wait for prospects to adjust to the big league level. If you want to disprove this point, give me a list of prospects who struggled out of the gate and Lou stuck with.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Don't forget about the attitude that Patterson
came up with in September of the 2007 season. He showed up late more than once and as a result was sent back to the minor leagues.
In this case, Eric Patterson was very foolish to make a bad impression on the entire MLB coaching staff. That’s the kind of thing that does get a player traded which is what happened last Summer.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions
You and I shall have to severely disagree
I’m a 180 degrees opposite on this. No sense continuing the debate. You make good arguments, but arguements that I fundamentally disagree on.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
I couldn't resist.
In the spirit of fun….
Piniella did have a player who at 18 hit .204/ .241/ .204 in 54 AB’s and at 19 hit .232/ .264/ .408 in 142 AB’s. He stuck with him though and he hit .358/ .414/ .631 in his 3rd season.
A-Rod, right?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Kind of hard not to stick with A-Rod.
But, sure, give Lou credit for sticking with the greatest prospect in recent history.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
What's wrong with that?
Isn’t he supposed to want to win? Why stick with someone who absolutely positively sucks like Pie??
Sorry, but I’m with Lou (and MBDNIU) on this one. Pie is terrible. Let it go, already.
whatever your opinion of him as an offensive player may be
he’s the best defensive outfielder on the team, last time i checked we still have to catch the ball. i love it how people just gloss over defense.
bring up felix.
That's a pretty strong statement
about a player with 130 career MLB at-bats.
I don’t think you can say anything “absolutely positively” about any player with that small a sample size of at-bats.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Thats not true.
There are a bunch of scouts who, coming into this season, thought that Patterson was already polished enough to be a starting second baseman. BP had a very favorable projection for him but he never got the chance. Too bad he won’t get a shot in Oakland either.
Good grief
Poor Eric Patterson screwed of opportunity in Chicago and now Oakland. That’s a lot of bullcrap is what that is.
Eric Patterson is at best a marginal major leaguer in the same vein as Matt Friggin Murton.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
And what an oppurtunity he had!
Those forty-four plate appearances really did him good, right?? It’s not as if Lou made it easy for him by throwing him out there in left field. Listen, I’m not saying the Cubs made a mistake by trading him. But he has a solid future. He has some power, speed and the plate discipline that his older brother never had.
And apparently..
… the same attitude his brother had.
Eric Patterson will never make it in the major leagues.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
And I suppose...
…its Piniella’s fault Oakland won’t play him either.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
No,
its that they already have Mark Ellis who was just signed to a new three year deal.
Good to know...
…I was waiting for that to be Lou’s responsibility.
But, I know whats coming next, Lou ruined him.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Well I guess it depends on which scouts you listen to
Baseball America doesn’t have him listed in the top 10 Cubs prospects last season.
You're correct
and that describes most managers. Talent evaluation is not absolute and sometimes players scuffle and then go to another organization and succeed. Sometimes it’s because of injury (Jayson Werth, Ryan Ludeick come to mind.) Sometimes because they were blocked (Ryan Howard didn’t get a chance to play until Thome was hurt and then traded.)
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
B.J. Upton was 20 during Piniella’s final year in Tampa Bay. Raul Ibanez was a very late bloomer who didn’t do something until he was in Kansas City. And lets keep in mind that Ibanez is a DH type and not a real option in the field.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
I know that looks like a pretty generic Blogger site...
…but Rany Jazayerli isn’t a fly-by-night operation; he writes regularly for Baseball Prospectus and used to do a weekly feature on the Royals with ESPN’s Rob Neyer. So he’s probably pretty plugged in here.
Thanks, had no idea.
I’ll read him more often.
To be honest
Since DM took over there, Rany’s postings have felt more speculative than before. That said, he still provides good general insight.
Billy Butler is a helluva talent
But I was under the impression his future is as a DH because he’s awful at 1st base and can’t play the outfield.
"Not that I don't feel like I'm part of the team, by no means, but when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you're getting your ass hammered by guys, it's no better feeling than to have that done.'' -- Matt Stairs (aka The Professional Hitter)
He is awful, but it's first base.
First base is the least demanding defensive position of all and it shouldn’t take all that much work to become at least a somewhat competent behavior.
To reiterate, the point of this post is to take a shot on a big-time talent while the price is low. This seems to be a low risk-high reward situation. It shouldn’t take too much to get him and if he works on his defense he can become a real asset at first base.
Unless he's out of options,
why would the Royals sell low on Butler? It would make more sense for them to hold on to him and try to build his value and then trade him. It’s not like the Royals are a contending team that is more interested in winning this year than developing young players.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions
The reason they would want to sell low is,
they don’t like him there. He wasn’t great this year and they have a glut of first baseman. Barring some further moves by the Royals(like Al’s thought on them trading away Jacobs), I see them trading away one of their first baseman, and it appears they like Butler the least. Keith Law also thinks he could be bought for a pretty ordinary price.
Then I guess the question the Cubs (and other organizations)
have to ask is, why do the Royals want to unload Butler now when his value is at its’ lowest?
It’s always interesting to see which characteristics or qualities each organization looks for in acquiring players. The challenge is to maximize the talent of each player and the better organizations are able to do this.
This sounds like an intriguing situation.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
From what I have read,
they don’t like his attitude/sense of entitlement, lack of hustle and overall lazyness. A lot of the things they say about him were also said of BJ Upton. The bottom lin is that if the kid has skills he’s worth having. Perhaps the Royals look at Butler and see the warts and the Cubs look at Butler and see the positives.
Sounds like a team may be interested
thinking a change of scenery will mean a fresh start and hopefully a change of atitude.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Pie for Butler
in a change of scenery swap?
Kansas City is trying to find someone who can move DeJesus out of CF, and perhaps Pie’s untapped potential could be enticing.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Unless Butler can play RF, no thanks.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
I wouldn't put him out there
But if we’re looking at pieces to trade, Pie would be one. If Johnson’s back is healthy enough, he can man CF, and then RF becomes to domain of Fukudome or a Free Agent signing.
I’d suggest Hoffpauir, but it looks like Kansas City has enough of his type in Jacobs, Shealy, Gload, etc..
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
People keep bringing up Hoffpauir
in trade scenarios but it’s important to remember that ANY team could have had him for nothing but taking him in the rule 5 draft last year. (He was left unprotected as he was not on the MLB 40 man roster). I think it’s pretty clear what other team’s opinion of Micah’s value when they all passed on him.
Of course, to keep a rule 5 player, you need to keep him on the MLB roster for the entire season but if he was valued by other teams, wouldn’t one have taken a chance?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Possibly.
That’s part of why I didn’t suggest trading him – his value isn’t high (and I apologize if that’s how it came across).
Another part of why he might have been passed up in the Rule 5 last year was because of injuries; IIRC, he was hurt most of 2007 – he only played 82 games.
Hoffpauir seems like a better candidate to be moved at the end of Spring Training (if he hits well and another team has an opening due to injury) or during the season.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
That's an interesting idea.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions
The Hoffpauir move?
I just see him as someone whom the other 29 teams aren’t going to be interested in unless he continues to hit and someone has a sudden need.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Yep, that's usually how ST moves happen.
I remember the White Sox trading an outfielder that was a bust (can’t remember his name) for Matt Thornton because both were out of options.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions
If the final roster spot comes down to Hoffpauir or Pie
I can see Hoffpauir getting jettisoned somewhere.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
Particularly
since Felix is out of options and Micah has options left.
Micah might be more attractive to the other teams (and the Cubs) as an insurance policy since he can be sent down to the minors.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Oct 31, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't care who they just traded for
I find it hard to believe that he would come cheap.
This is a guy who as a 20 yr old destroyed double-A with GREAT plate discipline.
he’s only 22, and in 772 major league at bats he’s hit 282/334/420, 19 hrs, 107 rbi.
not long ago he was considered by some folks as the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues. period. and, honestly, he hasn’t really done anything to lose the label.
Name me any player(s) in the Cubs system except Vitters (i.e. any/all of our “mid-level” prospects, which is pretty much everyone), and heck, throw in Cedeno or Theriot so they have someone to replace the ancient Grudzielanek…that’s an instatrade, I think. Butler isn’t just a useful player, he could be a major piece of a larger deal down the line. I just don’t think Royals would be looking to trade him so cheaply.
I didn't think so either,
but like I said earlier, the Royals have supposedly soured on him. Dayton Moore is not happy with his alleged sense of entitlement and lack of hustle and ESPN’s Keith Law said that it shouldn’t take more than a couple of mid-tier prospects and perhaps a decent bullpen arm to get him.
i like the idea
say you trade for him, you could platoon hoff and butler and be free to trade dlee. this is just all fun speculation though, i really dont think we trade D.
bring up felix.
Aww man!
I thought this post was going to be about Matt Clement!
"I have not failed. I have merely identified seven hundred twenty three ideas that didn't work"
dakoose, I'm sorry your thread got highjacked.
Here’s my bid to get it back on track.
I think you’re right in general about looking for buy-low guys who still have talent and potential. That’s something Hendry used to do a lot of – from Aramis Ramirez on the successful side to Alex Gonzalez on the less successful side. I’d like to see Hendry do it again, but I think the targets need to be more on the athletic and/or left-handed realm of things, given the club’s apparent goals. Do we have anyone else like Butler to consider for the Cubs? I think Hermida and Swisher fit that bill to a degree although they have had success at the ML level and just had bad 2008s. Anyone more off radar? I’ll think about it.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Agreed
To the original point of the diary, I am always in favor of acquiring players who once were highly thought of and may just need a change of scenery. I commented here last winter that I like the Sox’ acquisition of Quentin. There are numerous cases of players like that. Take a look at Brandon Phillips who took a little time and a few organizations to get things worked out. They don’t always work out but sometimes they do.
I’d be interested if the Royals were shopping Butler but I have a feeling he won’t be given away. Just because the Royals acquired Jacobs cheaply doesn’t mean that they return the favor to someone else with Butler.
Hermida fits the bill. I’m not so sure about Swisher. His talent level was never that high so while I’d talk to the Sox, I’d be a little leery. I’m not sure who else might fit that bill. Washington released Ryan Wagner if you really want to stretch. He’s only 25.
think about the haul
the indians got for bartolo colon:
grady sizemore
cliff lee
brandon phillips
now thats a trade
bring up felix.
ha
well i mean it was a few years ago, but brandon phillips being mentioned as a late bloomer just jogged the memory.
bring up felix.
I know that trade took place,
but I was wondering you decided to bring up that random trade.
just interesting
all three are on the verge of superstardom, a horribly one-sided trade, the nationals could be living large right now with that young talent.
bring up felix.
There was a good chance the Expos were going to be a retraction team
and that is why the trade occurred. They were trying to take one last shot at winning and didn’t think they’d exist much longer in the future.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 1, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
and if you recall, Phillips was the central piece of that trade.
Lee and Sizemore were significantly less known at the time.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
And the Indians let Phillips go for nothing.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
yep - it's just one of those things that seems to happen a lot
It was pretty clear Phillips wasn’t going to amount for much with the Indians despite his potential. So how long do you hang onto potential? At some point, you have to fish or cut bait. Some organizations do that quickly, sometimes too soon. Others will hang on stubbornly to the bitter end. Still others vary their approach, depending on the player.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
But you'd think they would have tried to trade him first.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
By that time,
the Indians had lost all leverage because Phillips was out of options and they did not have room for him on their 25 man roster.
The Indians had moved past development and were trying to win that year and didn’t feel he was one of their best 25 players.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 1, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Still surprising that they couldn't have traded him for someone.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
PIE
maybe felix just is,nt good enough.you can blame anyone you want but see first sentence.he,s out of options so he,ll get his chance next year.or we,ll lose him or trade him.sometimes players prosper elsewhere..i agree they should have given this guy a fair shot but there,s too much pressure in chicago to win.and this will continue.
I wonder what the fan reaction...
…would have been, if Pie would have gotten the 50-60 games many think he should have, and he struggled though it with the same poor offensive performance. Now, lets say the Cubs ended up missing a playoff spot by a game at the end of the season, and Pie’s replacement performed at a higher level to help the team and if he would have pulled Pie sooner, the Cubs could have won a few more games. I would imagine, the fans would have been all over Piniella for strolling Pie out there for that long with poor offensive numbers, don’t ya think?
You see, its easy to say Pie should have played more when you win the division by 7.5 games, but the Cubs had no way of knowing that in June. If the Brewers wouldn’t have choked it up again, and Edmonds didn’t deliver some key production, the race would have been neck and neck to the end.
In 09, I’ll bet it won’t be near as easy for the Cubs to win the division or make the playoffs as it was in 08. Injuries, age and other teams gearing for you are all going to play bigger than ever for the Cubs in 09. I would be dissappointed, but not shocked if the Cubs failed to make the playoffs in 09, unless the right moves are made to shore up the holes that need to be filled.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
Revisionist history
1) Early in the season, the Cubs were outscoring teams plenty with their offense but burning through their ’pen; playing a plus defender who helps record more outs was not going to cost the Cubs several games. Depending on where his level of hitting came, he could still have been a net positive for a team like the Spring/Early Summer Cubs.
2) Felix Pie was out-hitting Reed Johnson v. RHP for a good stretch there, so that playing him against RHP, even while he struggled, was not a bad option anyway.
3) Once Gallardo went down, the Cubs should have had a good sense that they had a several game edge on the competition.
4) To adapt a Yogiism – we would have won the division by more games, had we not won by so many games.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 1, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions
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