This team was different than other current playoff teams

by ryno HOF 2005 on Oct 6, 2008 10:17 PM CDT Comment 31 comments

Sure the Cubs won 97 games this season. Awesome team efforts all the way! Maybe that is the problem with this club. Sounds strange but look at it this way. The Cubs only had 1 regular starter this season with a .300+ AVG (Theriot). No Cubs player hit 30 homers. Only 1 player had 100+ RBI's (Ramirez). The offense showed great patience all season. The most walks in years from any Cubs team (maybe Dusty was on to something). Nah! Walks are good for the team but you have to have some real threat in the lineup to drive those free passes home. Only Aramis was the hitter pitchers feared. Mr. Clutch would come through in the late innnings. The team was less patient in the NLDS and Aramis (among others) slumped. Lee hit fine but doesn't posses the power he once displayed. No one could come through with a big hit.

No pitcher on this staff won more than 17 games (Dempster and Lilly). Pitching wasn't the problem. Howry never pitched in the NLDS. The Cubs had the pitching to carry the team far into October but the bottom line is this:

Good pitching will stop average hitting. That is what brought the Cubs demise in the NLDS.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Yabbut...

… without a single offensive player having a career year, this year’s Cubs led the league in AVG, OBA, walks, and a number of other offensive categories, and also led in runs scored — and not by a little, by a lot.

So to say this team had “average” hitting isn’t true. They had the best offense in the NL during the regular season. How it suddenly stopped hitting is beyond me.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 6, 2008 10:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

True but...

…in the playoffs, there wasn’t a real threat to put fear into the Dodgers pitchers.

"Man, this is fun!" - Len Kasper

by ryno HOF 2005 on Oct 6, 2008 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah there was.

Alfonso Soriano. Aramis Ramirez. Geovany Soto. Those are three real threats.

CUBS WIN! CUE THE ORCHESTRA!

by Keith on Oct 6, 2008 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right.

And they stopped hitting. Why? Who knows?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 6, 2008 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's the same thing that happened to the Angels.

Those teams left a ton of runners on base all season league. That’s how much those teams hit. But they lacked the power lefty hitter to drive those runs in. In the playoffs, where the hitters face a top of the line pitcher every night, the runs became scarce.

by Fraggin Judge on Oct 7, 2008 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

All RH hitters.

The pitchers exploited the holes in their swings.

by Fraggin Judge on Oct 7, 2008 7:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't need...

…a mannny or albert in your lineup for it to be good. A pitcher faces 8 everyday players and if the majority of those guys have good AB’s, you are going to pressure the pitcher and score runs.

I hate to beat a dead horse, but momentum in your lineup starts at the top and that is a big issue. Also, the bulk of the order had just shitty AB’s (trying to do too much) the entire series.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

STRONGLY disagree

DeRosa had a career year

Theriot had a career year

Henry Blanco had a career year

Mike Fontenot had a career year

It’s just that none of the “Stars” had a career year

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 6, 2008 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well....

I doubt strongly that Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will ever in the future replicate the statistics they had in 2008. I’ll also argue that Geovany Soto, a guy who gets beat up behind the plate for a living, will have hard time materially besting his 2008 offensive production. Carlos Marmol can’t do much better than 80 something largely brilliant performances. And I doubt Kerry Wood’s fragile right arm condition will result in him ever again staying as healthy and productive as he did in 2008. As you already mentioned DeRosa, Theriot, Blanco and Fontenot all had what will likely go down as career years.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 6, 2008 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Solemmegetthisstraight...

In 2009, you see down years for:

Lilly
Dempster
Lee
Ramirez
Soto
Marmol
Wood
DeRosa
Theriot
Blanco
Fontenot

Who the hell’s left? So next year should see Ward @ 1B, Pie in center, Dome a 2-time all-star, and Cedeno playing the rest of the infield? Holy hell Mike…

Dan

Evey Hammond: Vi Veri Veniversum Vivus Vici. V: By the power of truth, I, while living, have conquered the universe.

by dtpollitt on Oct 7, 2008 12:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I did not say "down years"

Rather what I stated that was a lot of Cubs will doubtful ever again match the production level they hit in 2008. Let’s face it, the 2008 Cubs were blessed with a relative injury free season and the big majority of players performing at a level they will be hard pressed to improve upon in 2009 and beyond. That spells trouble for 2009.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That seems to be the trend. When the stars line up the way

they did for the Cubs, usually a downfall follows.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 7, 2008 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, wut?

Lilly’s numbers were only slightly better than career average, most of which came from the American League.

Lee’s numbers match each other almost exactly for what he did in 2007 except for a difference of 56 at-bats.

Ramriez, the same deal, almost the same numbers at 2007.

Dempster, you are right, he’s a wait and see.

The others though, did you even bother to look at their stats before typing that out?

by IllinoisCubs on Oct 7, 2008 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, but no one had a Magglio Ordonez type year

I mean last year Magglio Ordonez just played out of his mind and was the best player in the league. He carried the Cubs. DeRosa, Theriot had very strong years, but I wouldn’t call them career years.

DeRosa
2006: 40 2B, 13 HR, .296 AVG, .357 OBP, ..456 SLG
2007: 28 2B, 10 HR, .293 AVG, .371 .OBP, .420 SLG
2008: 30 2B, 21 HR, .285 AVG, .376 .OBP, .481 SLG

Yes, he had more HRs, but less doubles than 2006. He had roughly the same amount of extra base hits in 2008 than he did in ’06 and his average actually went DOWN. This is hardly a career year, he just got a hold of a couple of extra pitches than he has in the past. You can contribute that to more patient hitting, more guys being on base in front of him.

Theriot

2007: 30 2B, 3 HR, .266 AVG, .326 OBP, .346 SLG
2008: 19 2B, 1 HR, .307 AVG, .387 OBP, .359 SLG

His doubles went down, but his patience went up. Perhaps he focused on just getting singles and taking walks instead of swinging out of his shoes. We could do better at SS for sure, but Theriot did not have a career year, just a more patient year.

Blanco had 120 at-bats… he hit for his highest .AVG but it’s not like he was on fire.
Fontenot was huge, but he was used selectively against righties and only had 243 at-bats.

I’m not worried about these guys boosting the 2008 Cubs numbers to unreachable heights in the future. Their uptick in some categories can be attributed to a more patient approach team-wide.

I’m surprised you didn’t mention Dempster. Now HE had a career year. We shall see what he can do next year.

by IllinoisCubs on Oct 7, 2008 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Curses, obviously Magglio Ordonez carried the Tigers last year, not the Cubs

by IllinoisCubs on Oct 7, 2008 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

seriously

you’re telling me DeRosa’s .813 OPS in TEXAS was better than his .857 OPS in Wrigley?

His career OPS+ is 98, that year in Texas you cite he was at 108, this year 120! He was closer in Texas to his career average than he was in 2008 to that great year in Texas.

It’s pretty obvious that was a career year….

As for THeriot, he raised his OBP 60 points and his OPS 74 points…. yeah i don’t think he replicates it again. He’s a .290’s hitter, not the .310 hitter

as for not mentioning Dempster… try reading the initial post

… without a single offensive player having a career year, this year’s Cubs led the league in AVG, OBA, walks, and a number of other offensive categories, and also led in runs scored — and not by a little, by a lot.

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

DeRosa

Again, he has the same number of extra base-hits as he did for Texas in 2006. It’s a difference of doubles versus home runs and turning on balls.

That’s the difference in his .813 and .857 OPS. We are talking about some favorable winds and cranking the ball more. I don’t get how you don’t see that. Will he hit 21 HRs next year? No, but that’s not the point.

by IllinoisCubs on Oct 7, 2008 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Texas....

is the best hitters park in the entire league (Wrigley is 8th)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

its a significant difference to have a 40 point jump in OPS when playing in a park that on average produces half a run less relative to league average.

And yes the HR’s count for more than the 2B’s. I AGREE he won’t hit 21 HR’s next year… you know why? BECAUSE THIS WAS A CAREER YEAR!

Add on the fact that you’re comparing his 2nd best year to his career year (instead of comparing his career averages).

To conclude: in 2008, he posted an OPS 40 points higher, an adjusted OPS 12 points higher than he ever had at any other point in his career. The only other year he even came close, he played in the most extreme hitters park in the majors.

How on earth can you claim this wasn’t a career year

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2008 10:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

DeRosa...

… is the only one who truly had a career year. Theriot — his numbers were above average. Blanco? What difference did 120 AB make?

And you don’t know about Fontenot. He’s young enough that he could replicate this season for the next 3-4 years.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 7, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fontenot's season

offensively was Chase Utley in less AB’s

I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest Fontenot is not Chase Utley

at 26 at AAA (his last “full” season), for the 2nd time at that level he posted an .856 OPS

he just posted a .909 OPS at the big league level.

There is no shot he reproduces a season like that again

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 7, 2008 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

His numbers were below average.

And sadly, I still maintain that he had a career year. Woot.

As for Fontenot, I don’t see any way you can expect him to have a .500+ SLG next year that doesn’t require recreational drugs. I do think he could be a reasonable second baseman for us, but I am rather grounded about the fact that he probably won’t be a star.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Would you be happier with a Fontenot/Theriot platoon at 2nd?

Assuming that you can’t shoot Theriot into the heart of the sun, that is. I didn’t bother to look at their splits but I can only assume they would both thrive with specific match-ups and it leaves an opening for a lead-off shortstop player.

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 7, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if I'd go for a straight platoon...

…although I’d certainly be open to the idea of putting Fontenot at second and using Theriot to spell him against tough lefties. The question of course is what can you get in return for DeRosa.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

DeRosa in right, Fuku/Johnson in center?

But yeah, they should at least try to get something good for DeRosa. Is DeRosa in right too little production?

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 7, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't expect DeRosa to provide the sort of corner OF production we're looking for.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The numbers DeRosa put up this year would be OK for a corner OF.

Now, the question is: can he repeat that? I’m guessing no.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 7, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano would swing at a pitch if it rolled up to the plate.

Rammy didn;t have a good series and I am sure Soto was playing through his injury. He was having problems throwing the ball back to the pitcher.

"Man, this is fun!" - Len Kasper

by ryno HOF 2005 on Oct 6, 2008 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cubs had lots of great years in 2008...

Take a look at the rotation and the starting lineup and the picture is of a team that got lots of great years and stayed, for the most part, injury free. Which makes the abrupt end of our season all the more tragic. As Ron Santo liked to say in those commercial spots, “THIS (meaning 2008) is the year.” Or at least it needed to be.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 6, 2008 11:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs