2008 Regular Season Pitchers Review

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 9:18 AM CDT

Gloves were flipped with splitter grips, bats were broken over knees, Sharks were jumped (from A ball to the Show), a Fox and an Angel returned, there was an embarassment of Riches, but no gloves were thrown after HRs. Who was the Cubs pitching MVP?

I'm giving season stats for the players, so for several it incorporates their work across two teams. Below we have their innings pitched (IP), hitters AVG/OBP/SLG against them, their Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), the hits per 9 innings, bases on balls per nine, strikeouts per nine, home runs per nine, their groundball percentage, the number of balls and strikes they threw, and finally the number of outs they recorded.

N. Cotts 35.7 IP, .266/.325/.455, .333 BABIP, 9.59 H9, 3.28 BB9, 10.85 K9, 1.77 HR9, .38 GB%, 308 Strikes, 258 Balls, 107 Outs

R. Dempster 206.7 IP, .227/.300/.341, .283 BABIP, 7.58 H9, 3.31 BB9, 8.14 K9, .61 HR9, .49 GB%, 1543 Strikes, 1252 Balls, 620 Outs

S. Eyre 25.7 IP, .242/.302/.432, .344 BABIP, 8.06 H9, 2.45 BB9, 11.22 K9, .70 HR9, .37 GB%, 225 Strikes, 180 Balls, 77 Outs

S. Gallagher 115.3 IP, .263/.349/.439, .315 BABIP, 9.21 H9, 4.53 BB9, 8.04 K9, 1.01 HR9, .37 GB%, 917 Strikes, 851 Balls, 346 Outs

C. Gaudin 90 IP, .265/.319/.412, .315 BABIP, 9.20 H9, 2.70 BB9, 7.10 K9, 1.10 HR9, .39 GB%, 625 Strikes, 560 Balls, 270 Outs

R. Harden 148 IP, .183/.269/.287, .254 BABIP, 5.84 H9, 3.71 BB9, 11.01 K9, .67 HR9, .31 GB%, 1232 Strikes, 913 Balls, 444 Outs

K. Hart 27.7 IP, .325/.423/.492, .389 BABIP, 12.69 H9, 5.86 BB9, 7.48 K9, .65 HR9, .60 GB%, 250 Strikes, 243 Balls, 83 Outs

R. Hill 19.7 IP, .191/.360/.324, .216 BABIP, 5.95 H9, 8.24 BB9, 6.86 K9, .92 HR9, .36 GB%, 145 Strikes, 164 Balls, 59 Outs

B. Howry 70.7 IP, .309/.338/.543, .352 BABIP, 11.46 H9, 1.66 BB9, 7.51 K9, 1.66 HR9, .35 GB%, 552 Strikes, 418 Balls, 212 Outs

J. Lieber 46.7 IP, .306/.328/.549, .314 BABIP, 11.38 H9, 1.16 BB9, 5.21 K9, 1.93 HR9, .41 GB%, 306 Strikes, 221 Balls, 140 Outs

T. Lilly 204.7 IP, .239/.300/.432, .274 BABIP, 8.22 H9, 2.81 BB9, 8.09 K9, 1.41 HR9, .35 GB%, 1569 Strikes, 1115 Balls, 614 Outs

C. Marmol 87.3 IP, .135/.250/.257, .174 BABIP, 4.12 H9, 4.23 BB9, 11.75 K9, 1.03 HR9, .36 GB%, 759 Strikes, 601 Balls, 262 Outs

J. Marquis 167 IP, .268/.339/.403, .292 BABIP, 9.27 H9, 3.77 BB9, 4.90 K9, .81 HR9, .49 GB%, 1093 Strikes, 1057 Balls, 501 Outs

S. Marshall 65.3 IP .245/.312/.424, .287 BABIP, 8.27 H9, 3.17 BB9, 7.99 K9, 1.24 HR9, .43 GB%, 492 Strikes, 379 Balls, 196 Outs

J. Samardzija 27.7 IP .226/.323/.274, .296 BABIP, 7.81 H9, 4.88 BB9, 8.13 K9, 0.00 HR9, .47 GB%, 209 Strikes, 211 Balls, 83 Outs

K. Wood 66.3 IP, .219/.286/.344, .319 BABIP, 7.33 H9, 2.44 BB9, 11.40 K9, .41 HR9, .43 GB%, 568 Strikes, 357 Balls, 199 Outs

M. Wuertz 44.7 IP .267/.339/.400, .305 BABIP, 8.87 H9, 4.03 BB9, 6.04 K9, .81 HR9, .46 GB%, 325 Strikes, 289 Balls, 134 Outs

C. Zambrano 188.7 IP, .241/.314/.370, .273 BABIP, 8.20 H9, 3.43 BB9, 6.20 K9, .86 HR9, .48 GB%, 1281 Strikes, 1204 Balls, 566 Outs

So, who here thought at the beginning of the season that Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis would be better pitchers than Rich Hill and Jon Lieber? That's one of the best arguments for pitching depth. Pitching is a tough thing to do. The more options you have, the better.

Bob Howry turned all opposing hitters into Alfonso Soriano. Jon Lieber's season line looks similar in several ways to Howry, although there's a mystery to Lieber's season. Against all teams other than Cincinatti, Lieber had a 1.81 ERA. I still wonder if Cinci had a scoop on Jon tipping pitches. I would not re-sign Howry. I would re-sign Lieber. In fact, if Lieber's healthy, I think there's a decent chance Lieber could out-perform Dempster in 2009.

Carlos Zambrano's K9 was 5.84 in the first half when his ERA was 2.84. It was 6.85 in the second half when his ERA was 5.80. Is this representative of Zambrano's intial shift in pitching style, where he tried to pitch to more contact? Over the past three years, Z's K9 has taken a steep drop - 8.83 in 2006, 7.36 in 2007, and 6.20 this year. I'll be curious to hear BCB's opinions on Z's pitching shift, both the one at the beginning of the season and the one he made in-season.

Rich Hill - what is there to say, other than to marvel that the Cubs lost their #2 pitcher and won 97 games.

Look at that line from Samardzija - no Home Runs. None. There's definitely something here and someone who, at the beginning of the season, was a poster child for a failing farm system, is now the poster child for a farm system that has brought productive players out from places the scouting writing community didn't expect.

Kerry Wood was very good. He fits the closer role very well. You look at his BABIP and see that he had a good season despite a bit of bad luck among his fielders. Carlos Marmol, on the other hand, looked absolutely unhittable for large sections of the season. I'm noting, however, that low BABIP and wondering how much of Marmol's season was luck. Thoughts?

Lou gave more of a chance to Kevin Hart than to Scott Eyre. Eye for talent, right?

Ted Lilly with back-to-back 200+ IP seasons - whodathunkit? Ted cut his walk rate back to 2.32 in the second half and that's really key for him. Because he can give up a HR at any moment, he has to keep his free passes low. All in all, the Cubs have managed Ted well - this has been a good match for Ted, Lou, Larry, and kudos to Jim - a feather in his EKG machine.

For 3 out of the last 4 years, Jason Marquis has been pretty much league average or slightly better. Despite the fact that his contract jumps this year, I wonder if the Cubs wouldn't have to eat that much of his salary if they wanted to trade him. Marquis is an asset as a 4/5 starter. I'd just rather see the Cubs use a combo of Samardzija/Marshall/Lieber in that spot in 2009.

So, I'm comparing Gallagher's line to Chad Gaudin's and I'm wondering - is Gallagher really any better than Gaudin, let alone worth Rich Harden, too? Thanks, Billy, although, I must say, what we got from you didn't work in the playoffs for us either.

Poll

The Cubs pitching MVP in 2008:

Ryan Dempster

105 votes

Rich Harden

12 votes

Ted Lilly

13 votes

Carlos Marmol

38 votes

Kerry Wood

5 votes

Carlos Zambrano

2 votes

Ryan Theriot

13 votes

188 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Comments

Carlos Marmol gets my vote no question

Awesome pitcher and I’ve never had so much fun watching a pitcher.

Your 2008 Missouri Tigers! #2/3 5-0 (1-0). Next up Okie State at home. Live on ESPN in primetime for the second week in a row. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin for Co-Heisman!

by nji232 on Oct 7, 2008 9:33 AM CDT reply actions

Isn't there a way to use formatted tables in FanPosts?

If so, it would really help in digesting this one.

(I want to read it, but it is very intimidating in its present form.)

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Oct 7, 2008 10:34 AM CDT reply actions

Looks like there's a "paste from Word" option

I checked, and it allows pasting from Excel too.

The only thing is, you may need to spend awhile tweaking the column widths to get it right.

My next sig line quote will also be from Lou Piniella, and the first word will be either "Look", or "Listen", followed by a comma.

by JohnM on Oct 7, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions

You could also use "preformatted" tags...

… that way at least the text would line up.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Oct 7, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Lieber

Didn’t he announce his retirement?

by cubfan2201 on Oct 7, 2008 12:35 PM CDT reply actions

So...

Theriot is an option in the poll… why?

"I see great things in baseball. It's our game - the American game." - Walt Whitman

by hip2bsquare on Oct 7, 2008 1:28 PM CDT reply actions

I'm guessing to see how many people vote for him.

Because when Theriot would go 1-for-16 with a walk and a caught stealing people would still vote for him in the weekly hitting MVP poll.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I would have had his name been above Dempster's.

by Arbusto on Oct 8, 2008 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Ha

You Theriot bashers are so easy to rile up, people probably do it just for kicks.

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 8, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions

Theriot for Bears QB

------ TheRiot Squad ------

by RightFieldSucks on Oct 10, 2008 11:32 PM CDT up reply actions

I had to...

just for the snark factor

by tootle on Oct 8, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh Rich Hill

it’s depressing to see his BABIP at .216. While I don’t think it would have stayed that low all year if he had been able to find the strike zone, it’s tough to look at that and think ‘what if?’

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Oct 7, 2008 5:18 PM CDT reply actions

its only

53 balls in play…. a pretty small sample. Of all the things to worry about with Rich Hill, this isn’t the one i’d focus on

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 8, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions

No, it's the one I like

it’s the BB/9 that bothers me. At least when he was getting the ball put into play, he was recording outs in general.

While a small sample size, it does give a glimpse into the potential he possesses/possessed.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Oct 9, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions

its not really controllable though....

so it signals there was a fair bit of good fortune in those numbers and not skill per se

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 9, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions

To an extent, yes.

I agree, a larger sample size is needed to determine which way it would go. Looking deeper into it, it would likely go up, as Hill’s 2007 BABIP was .276 and for his career it’s .269.

Looking at it more, I’ll take the view that Hill was lucky to an extent when balls were put in play, and perhaps he was ‘effectively wild,’ in surprising batters with strikes and lucking into some outs.

I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg

by Bill Potter on Oct 9, 2008 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Carlos Marmol, hands down

Without Carlos Marmol the Cubs are a 3rd place team in the NL Central in 08. Marmol was a huge workhorse that was invaluable.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 8, 2008 3:17 PM CDT reply actions

Wow, very thorough review

I don’t have a vote, just a thanks.

Chicago Cubs Jokes, News and Parody at The Cubs Brickyard

by Brett Taylor on Oct 8, 2008 7:51 PM CDT reply actions

Just one typo

Zambrano threw 188.2 innings, not 118.2.

Thanks for summarizing all this. Good analysis.

Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"

by cubzfan on Oct 9, 2008 10:14 AM CDT reply actions

Good catch - I changed that.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 9, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions