Cubs were blessed with relative good health and a big slew of players who had solid 2008 campaigns that, collectively speaking, will be very difficult to replicate in 2009. The only player in the everyday lineup who you would think will produce better personal statistics is Alfonso Soriano given all the time he missed in 2008. But beyond that? Some examples…

1. Dempster and Lilly performed exceptionally for who they are which is quality major league starting pitchers. I dont’ see either matching his 2008 performance in 2009. If it were me I would let Dempster leave via free agency because handing him a 4 year contract at $50 million plus is a risk I am not willing to take.

2. Edmonds and Johnson chipped in with over 20 HRs and nearly 100 RBIs in CF. That is extremely doubtful to be replicated in 2009 by the combination of them or the dubious Felix Pie.

3. Lee has become an old man at 1st base. Going forward he is doubtful to do better than 20 HRs and 90 RBIs. In fact further decline is likely.

4. Theriot and Fontenot played out of their skin in 2008. I like both players, but let’s face it each of these guys is classic overachiever with meaningful limitation to their game.

5. Marmol chalked in with nearly 80 mostly great relief appearances. Is he going to replicate that heavy workload? The odds say no. In fact the odds say he will go backwards a bit and may succumb to arm woes.

6. Wood stayed largely healthy and effective. We all know his arm hangs on with baling wire and duct tape. If I am a betting man then I don’t like the prospects of him replicating that sort of performance two years in a row. And God forbid if Hendry signs him to a multi-year deal.

“Where do the Cubs go from here?” is the question we’ll be asking up through Thanksgiving and start to see some answers for once the post-season is over. It’s the question Jim, Lou, and the other Cub leaders are sitting down and asking now.

In the upcoming days/weeks, I was hoping to make some posts dividing the question up by position – what are our options at corner IF, middle IF, OF, SP, and RP both taking a look at what is available and at what we already have in-house. What you’ve done already is ask the big picture question – the question, in fact, you’ve argued Jim Hendry hasn’t been asking (or answering) well enough.

Is there something beyond individual players that the Cubs need? Even if “leadership” is something that the Cubs or we decide they need, I don’t know that, as fans, we’re really in a good position to observe or critique it among players.

So, let’s look at the lead-off man situation

In house, the Cubs have Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, and Derrek Lee who combine speed with on-base ability. Theriot’s 2008 is suspect going forward when compared to his career numbers. The low-SLG also warns of a Juan Pierre effect potential where teams refuse to walk him because they know that if he puts it in play, it will only be a single. Dome and Lee are marginal in terms of speed. And both had horrid season splits that suggest they’re either going to readjust and be much better hitters, or not at all qualified to lead off. Could Lee be trained all off-season to redevelop his base-stealing skills and start to hit the ball the other way,to focus on remaking himself as a hitter? I think it’s possible.

On the free-agent scene, there’s Rafael Furcal – an obvious fit, but also a player who has spurned Hendry in the past and has spoken positively about re-signing with the Dodgers. Furcal’s OBP has rarely been great, either, and may give us no more OBP at lead-off than Soriano. On the other hand, if Gerald Perry could do for Furcal what he’s done for Aramis and others with the Cubs… In the end, before I get my hopes up for Furcal, I want to see him available and courted by the Cubs.

Then there’s Bobby Abreu, again, not a traditional lead-off man, but he gets on base and steals. On the negative side, he’s talked about sticking with the Yankees, his defense is poor, and he’s 35. If Abreu slips out of the Yankees’ grasp, I do think we should be talking about him, even if not as a lead-off hitter.

The trade market hasn’t developed yet, but Brian Roberts may be there. But I think the thing to recognize is how hard it is to get a lead-off hitter who combines both SBs and OBP. There were, what a dozen guys this season with more than 30 SBs, and of those guys, they’re either Taveras/Bourn types who don’t get on base, or they’re premiere guys like Rollins and Reyes who aren’t getting traded.

All this is to say that there are not many options for lead-off better than Soriano. Roberts – yes, but then what do we do with Theriot-Fontenot-DeRosa? Furcal, maybe, but is he even available? Then, we have to start looking less traditional – Dome, Lee, Abreu, maybe Fontenot and give up speed altogether.

Anyway, these are some of my thoughts.

Unfortunately, Alfonso Soriano is babied and coddled by this organization. Lou Piniella has shown zero inclination to take on Soriano or to take the step of moving him somewhere else in the lineup.

Does anybody know if Hendry has any OK to go out and get anybody? I’m sure he’s got the money to resign a few guys, Demp and Wood in particular, but who all is on the free agent market would be a good fit with this team? I’m talking realistically because this team won’t go out and get any top A plus talent because Im sure they can’t afford it.

Plus, I really think Fukudome might have to earn his RF spot again next spring because I think Lou was really disappointed in him and just won’t reward him with RF unless he has no other choice. I think the RF position is going to be a hole for a few seasons because I don’t… nor did I ever, expect much from Fukudome besides decent OBP, and good defensive. Who knows though, maybe he’ll turn it around and will hit 330. I doubt it, but I would accept it! lol

Was really Dempster and not Lilly. While its true we have some holes that need to be filled. The Cubs for what its worth DO NOT have a guy that in crunch time scares the hell outta you.

An Albert Pujols or a Manny or a guy like that.

Soriano, Aramis, D-Lee are an excellent supporting cast guys, but do not strike fear in the pitchers heart like a Manny would.

So with that said.

I think the Cubs should move Fukudome to CF and Soriano to RF or back to 2B and try and get Manny for LF.

Before you start telling me how Soriano will suck in RF and all that stuff. Let me ask you a simple question.

What did DeRosa do in RF that makes you totally against this move in the first place?

The only way….THE ONLY WAY the Cubs make any post season progess is to get a Manny type player in the line up. A guy who can hit the cover off the ball just about any at bat and strike fear in the hearts of the pitcher.

In my opinion, the team that consistently gets you to the playoffs gives you the best chance to win the World Series. I don’t buy into the “built for a marathon not a sprint idea” afterall you can’t win the World Series if you dont make the playoffs.

That said, I’d keep this nucleus and add one B+/A bat or arm and then either resign or go out and get a solid reliever and sure up the bench with gamers who’ve won in October.

Guys I’d consider signing,
CC Sabathia (might as well pursue, although his contract will be huge and milwaukee wore him out)
Derek Lowe (you saw why)
Milton Bradley (if you’re going to give up on Fukudome, or move him to center)
Adam Dunn (same)

Roleplayers
Gabe Kapler (had an interesting year and knows how to win in october)
Craig Counsell (gamer)
Rocco Baldelli
Horacio Ramirez

Please sign Mark Prior to a tiny salary…It would be very low risk with a possible huge upside.

Then Mark Prior does.

Now I realize I came up with a crazy idea about signing Manny to play LF and Sori to RF But, where would you put Dunn, Soriano and Bradley?

Bradley is an injury waiting to happen and Adam Dunn would not be someone Cubs fans would be happy with.

on which is most important for Cubs to get:
A) Leadoff Hitter
B) Fearsome Slugger
C) Veteran Leader

I look at the Cubs and see screaming need for a primetime left-handed hitting run producer. I look at Adam Dunn and see a guy who could hit 50 HRs, drive in 110 and walk 100 times in his sleep at Wrigley. But also a guy who needs to be DHing in the American League.

This all said I would LOVE to explore the idea of signing Dunn to play 1st base. He’s played the position before with not the best results. But it IS worth investigating.

Not much will be done. I could see a Brian (oh geez I don’t want to read about him all winter) Roberts at leadoff. Theriot in the #2 hole. We’ll add a pretty good outfielder, but not a starter. Another left handed bat probably. I think we roll the odds on ‘Dome that he is like most Japanese players and will adjust to MLB pitchers and be OK; with that said, he will not be a power hitter. That’s about all I see for position players. As far as pitching goes, much of this will depend on whether our FA’s seek outside offers. I would assume we want Dempster back along with Wood.

Lastly, I’ll say this all winter. We’ve gone to the playoffs TWO YEARS in a row. We may have to go a few more times to get it right, tweaking our roster a little each year before we get to the big show. I just don’t see a lot of changes.

In my travels last night I listened to David Kaplan go on a 30 minute rant that was pretty interesting. Worth noting were the following two points.
- Soriano is likely done hitting leadoff. The powers that be realize that this is a bad idea and this is very likely to change.
- Carlos Zambrano needs a major attitude adjustment. Kaplan echoed the sentiments of Steve Stone, saying that Zambrano is turning into another Sammy Sosa. Zambrano on more than one occasion has arrived late to his side sessions, leaving the coaching staff waiting. Kaplan also said that several of Zambrano’s teammates question his work ethic.This seems to mesh with the comments that surfaced in August when Carlos was having physical problems, that Carlos does not do the things that are necessary to maintain his body over the course of a long season.

Here’s where I’d like to see the team go:
- Make some moves within the line-up. Soriano needs to be out of the leadoff spot. We’ve known this for a long time. Further, Lee needs to be out of the #3 spot. I’d be fine w/ Alfonso hitting 3rd if there was someone decent protecting him. I’d prefer to see Soriano dealt, but thats not going to happen.

- Pick up Harden’s option and trade him. Someone would love to have that talent for the low commitment. Personally, I don’t want to go back to the days of Wood and Prior and musical chairs in the pitching rotation.

- Be very careful with the Dempster decision. 4/48 is likely to be the cost and I’m not sure I want to risk those dollars and years on his track record.

- The Cubs need to add a key bat but their financial commitments are going to hamstring them. I think that the starting point is Aramis Ramirez. He puts up big numbers by the end of the season but his consistency is an issue. His post season numbers over his Cubs career are not good. If I were Hendry I’d call the LA Angels GM and see if there is room for a deal there. Aramis was wooed by them before resigning with the Cubs so perhaps he’d waive his no-trade clause to go there. After another quick post season exit I’d imagine that the Angels would like to add someone of Aramis’ stature. The Cubs would allocate those dollars and spot in the line-up somewhere else, hopefully for a left handed bat that can take the ball out of the park. If that person is not a third baseman, I’d seriously consider moving DeRosa over the third base.

Thats my starting point for now. There’s a lot to figure with the pitching staff, especially the relief corps, but I really think the key to not flaming out again is to make some changes to the middle of the line-up.

would most likely require the Cubs to have some payroll flexibility, though new ownership will have a huge impact on that. I can’t possibly see Soriano or Fukudome going anywhere so that leaves Zambrano, Lilly, Ramirez and Lee as the major holders of long term payroll obligations.

I’m not yet sure what I think of the pitching option between Dempster and Harden, but I don’t think both come back. I’m reluctant at this moment to further extend the long term payroll obligations because I’ve got some other ideas for that money and that by itself would eliminate Dempster, so I say Harden stays.

I think the Cubs need to improve at SS and leadoff. To that extent, Furcal seems to fit the bill. If that’s not possible Cabrera would be my second choice. I love Roberts, but I think Fontenot’s time has come and he’s cheap. If Roberts could play SS, he’d be my first choice, but he can’t.

In addition to all that, though, the Cubs team needs a player leader. No one on the roster fits that bill. I would love it if Hendry could explore the possibility of adding Vernon Wells. Since payroll is a concern, I would add him at the expense of Ramirez and Lee if I had to. That’s not to say I am proposing that trade. I’m just saying that pieces have to be taken off before they can be added on.

If Ramirez and Lee are not in the future plans, I’d like to see the Cubs go after Adam Dunn and Hank Blalock. That would immediately give the Cubs more power from the left side.

I would put it in this thread… but its really long, but go to Ignited Thoughts, my new blog to see what I think on this same topic

It has now been a couple days since the rise and fall of the best team in the National League, the Chicago Cubs. I initially was going to come write my review of the collapse the day after doomsday, but decided it would be very angry as it reignites my thoughts from the horrifying weekend. On that note, lets talk about the Cubs future, rather then the total destruction of the Northside Nobody’s.

What exactly do the Cubs need to take it to the next level? This team had it going for them all year. 97 wins, leading the league in come from behind victories and in the top five of almost every category in baseball. How do you throw away something that shattered after it supplied so many positive outcomes? Where do we begin?

Lead-off hitter. Jim Hendry and the Cubs need to address this situation. Sure the Cubs scored more runs and won more games with Soriano at lead-off, but what if there is a Rafeal Furcal or Brian Roberts leading off the game, pushing Soriano to second or even fifth? There would be more base runners ahead of power hitters using their speed to put them in position to win the game when it counts. Soriano’s speed cannot be counted on anymore, and he strikes out far to often in clutch situations to bat first in a Cubs uniform. It would be “heart” replacing “moneybags”, thus when the team reaches the playoffs there will be more fight at the lead-off spot and more flash bulbs going off when Soriano comes up to bat with men on base.

Infield. Lets go around the horn. To say the least, Geovanny Soto is our guy behind the plate. He is a potential Rookie of the Year, and handles the pitching staff with great confidence. Soto contributes well to a high scoring offense, hitting doubles in the gap at a rapid rate, and leaves souvenirs for the bleacher bums when needed most. At first base, it has become common talk to throw Lee under the bus as the Cubs try to focus on change. Ok, so he tied Ron Santo for the mot doubles in team history. But he also led the team in base hits, and is arguably the best defensive first baseman in MLB, nevermind the playoff error. Hes on the Cubs in the playoffs – that is bound to happen. Lee will turn it around with more power next year, and will be hitting balls to the ivy walls at a consistent pace in the 2009 season. My solution: Bat DLee second and work on improving his base stealing effectiveness for next year. At second base we have Mark DeRosa who might be the most important guy in the infield to keep on the team. This man can play. When someone is hurt or needs a break, DeRosa will vacate his natural second base position and hold down the fort wherever need be. He hits consistently and provides great team leadership..he must stay. Fontenot as his backup seems ok from the bench, considering this year was probably his career year. At shortstop we have “The-scrappy-Riot” who surprisingly led the team in OBP, BA and SB. Theriot doesn’t have the best range at shortstop, and he throws like a 10 year old girl with her eyes closed, but he does consistently keep the game going. Perhaps he is the reason why DLee hits in so many double plays, as he is always manning first base when Lee comes up to bat. If we had Theriot in 03’ the Cubs would have scored double the amount of runs they had scored this year as Lee posted much higher power numbers five years ago. Solution: I hate to say it, but put Theriot on the bench or trade him because the Cubs need a lead-off hitter, and that most likely will come from a middle infield position. Theriot can lead off, but not with the effectiveness of a Furcal or Roberts. So, this may be a position of need. At third base we have Aramis Ramirez. He was terrible in the playoffs, and has been consistently terrible in the playoffs in the last six games. That being said, Ramirez is our most clutch hitter and provides the most power and RBI’s on the team. He is a contact hitter, where as most power performers like to strike out at a rapid rate. This one is obvious, keep him.

Outfield. Soriano is stuck there in left with his 135 million dollars, unless some rich organization wants to take the same risk the Cubs took and pick up his massive contract. Fukudome is also a staple next year considering his contact signing coming to the Cubs as a rookie from Japan. Fukudome fell off month to month, each stat tumbling off the cliff while taking a beating all the way to the bottom. He will be fine. Fukudome’s work ethic is unmatched and his personal confidence should be back next year. These Japanese players don’t give up. Don’t be surprised to hear how hard he worked in the off season once spring training begins. Where do we put this sure glove? For now I would say keep him in RF unless a lefty power bat is acquired from that position. In center field the Cubs should not take their chances with Edmonds considering his age and ability to be inconsistent. Edmonds was great for the Cubs in the second half of 2008, but the Cubs need to look forward. I guess that means the Cubs need to rely on Felix Pie. The Cubs have a very positive outlook on Pie calling him as a September call-up, showing they have high hopes for “Pumpkin Pie.” Hopefully he isn’t another “He has potential Patterson.” Reed Johnson should be re-signed and kept on the team, because he is one guy that will not put his head down. Johnson works hard and plays hard which is a great combination for a player in a blue collar city such as Chicago, and has become a fan favorite since his hat bending catch early on in the year.

Pitching. We have an unbelievable pitching staff, but do you really trust that Dempster can repeat what he did this year? Keep him on the team for leadership and clubhouse entertainment, but he is not a one or a two starter. Count Dempster in to be our four guy, rather then our one guy going into the playoffs. He is getting older, but his arm seems to be made of rubber this year. Picking up his option is going to be one of the harder tasks for Hendry in the off season. I would say the same for Lilly, but he has been solid since he put on the cursed Cubs jersey. Keep him, for God’s sake, keep Lilly, and if the Cubs make the playoffs next year, let this guy pitch a game, he deserves it. It goes without question that Zambrano remains our franchise pitcher with that uber large contract he signed this season, but Carlos has yet to win a playoff game.. that needs to change. Rich Harden, what a signing. Harden is a free agent and is at high risk to become another Mark Prior. I don’t know what to think about this. Sign him, but don’t waste too much money doing so. If that doesn’t work, go after C.C. or another ace to tandem with Zambrano throughout the season. Good-bye Marquis! You were a good five starter and it was nice to see you finish the season well, but you need to go. As far as our bullpen is concerned I will keep this simple. Marmol had a great year, unlikely to match his 08’ season but is a solid staple in the bullpen. Howry please leave this city, we don’t want you here, and same goes with you Cotts. Take the bus to Iowa, and if you need directions I will gladly look it up for you. Marshall should be a strong consideration as a four starter, but I personally like him coming in long relief. That being said, he will be signed. As for the rest of the bullpen, they did well, but Hendry might juggle it around a little bit to better prepare this team for the playoffs.

Hendry has got his work cut out, as does Lou. Piniella has still got that heart, but he needs to stick to his old school way of coaching. Never mind these million dollar babies, play the game and coach it the way you know how to coach it. You know… the one that got you a ring?

The Cubs 2008 season was much like a Steak N’ Shake frisco melt at three in the morning. It was GREAT while it lasted, but it always has a painful ending. Wait till’ next year Cubs fans! There is always next year.. so I like to believe.

The team played poorly, no doubt. But for the 2nd consecutive year, I really had some doubts about decisions made by our manager in constructing line- ups, and game time decisions. Lou Piniella is the best Cubs manager I have ever seen in my time watching the team since the early ’80s, but there is plenty of room for doubt in his two playoff stints with the Cubs.

1. Why not play our very best against Milwaukee all the way through so we eliminate them, and host the inferior Mets? This had to be an obvious conclusion.

2. Lou pulls Z in game 1 2007 in AZ to save for series final, which never happens. Who knows how series turns if Z finishes the game.

3. Lou benches Fukudome for the final month of the season, and then bats him second in game 1, 8th in game 2, trashes in the media, and benches him against a pitcher he is more familiar w/ than anyone else in the league.

4. Lou leaves Dempster in the game, having watched him barely make it out of the 3rd inning, and walk the bases loaded in the 5th. Why did Marshall and Marquis make the post season roster if not for long relief. Once Demp walked the first batter in the fifth, I have Marmol up in the pen, and he pitches to Manny, and finishes the inning. Then Marshall/ Marquis begin the sixth in long relief, w/ the Cubs still likely in the lead.

5. Lou has publicly stated he was worried about the offense leading into the playoffs, yet does very little to shake up the line up. Johnson never plays, Fontenot plays sparingly, while Fonzy, with his history of playoff gaffs, bats leadoff throughout the series. I would guess that one big reason he was concerned, was Soriano’s mediocre finish to the season. The Soriano/ Fukudome 1/2 slot will never make any sense to me. Theriot/ Fontenot would have made the Dodger pitchers work a hell of a lot harder in front of Lee and Ramirez.

So, where do we go from here? Not that drastically far I say. It is time that Lou handles Soriano as directly as he did Fukudome following game 2. We still have a very good team, have solid free agents who likely will want to re sign for reasonable deals, and have upper management who will continue to bolster the roster. The man who managed the Cubs to consecutive division titles needs to better in the playoffs, as do his players.

makes sense. I hadn’t thought of him. Great. No I’m even more fumed. Thanks

I get a lot of New York news/talk/rumors, The Mets are a team I would look at to deal. I would TRY to move Ramirez, Veal and another player for Wright. Wright has struggled late the last two years, Wright has taken alot of grief because of this. I think Ramy would waive his no trade if New York is on his no trade list. Change of scenery for both. Hey its a wild one but I would make the effort.
 I really think the only way the Cubs are going to shake up this team is by trades. Signing a free agent, especially a position player, would most likely force your hand into a trade to accomindate the free agent move.
 I believe Dome will improve, I think he has a ton of pride, and he will be a better player, how much, I don’t know.
 I would sign Harden, Wood and Dempster.

 Of course my to much “acid scenerio”
 Cuban purchases the Cubs, Cubs then trade Lee for Roberts, Ramy and others for Wright, Cuban then goes nuts signs CC for 7 years 150 million, SIgns Texieria for 7 years 155 million, Signs Reed Johnson, Harden, and Wood, Then you have your 2009 Cubs:

 Roberts-2b
 Dome/Derosa-RF
 Wright-3b
 Texieria-1B
 Soriano-LF
 Soto-C
 Reed/Pie-CF
 Theriot-SS
 Rotation:
 CC
 Z
 Lilly
 Harden
 Marquis/Marshall
 Now the Iron Butterfly and Jefferson Airplane music stopped, and I found out it was dream.
 

…but uh…I can’t believe some of the suggestions of moving Soriano to 1st. I have to say the Cubs (at least in the last decade plus I’ve been following the team) have always been fortunate in having a solid 1st baseman. Mark Grace was unmatched, and at the very least, I always ALWAYS feel confident in D-Lee’s ability to hold down on the bag, stretch and make the out. He is solid. He just didn’t have his best year. I think moving him down in the line up would be a help. I didn’t realize his daughter had an illness this year. Life has larger problems behind the scenes, sometimes.

Anyway, back to Soriano: He’s our next Sosa, a streaky strike out artist. Trrrrrrrrrrade him. I would prefer reliability over pure power. I didn’t see a ton of home runs from the Dodgers this series. The changing nature of baseball has left everyone hungry for a home run hitter, but I think at the top comes pitching and those that can get on base and move runners. The glaring holes of a strike out king will ALWAYS bring down a team.

Which leads me to the man with the highest batting average, on base percentage and scrappiest charm of this team: Theriot.
People really want to trade him!?? I feel like he’s a mini-Sandburg (or at least growing into one), and the fact that he tries and gives THAT MUCH effort year round makes me feel better about his future performance. I would never trade Theriot, barring a dip in morale or major injuries, I suppose.

And as for Fukudome…well, I kind of like the idea of enlisting Ichiro, for countrymen sake. :) But assuming he needs another Japanese player to feel ‘comfortable’ on the team is kind of silly. This was a very friendly, welcoming team (from my outsider perspective, of course), and Piniella was extremely patient with him. I’d say maybe…give him another shot, but move him further down in the batting order. 7th and below. It was his first full year here. Maybe he’ll improve. If he dips again next year, bench him, or use him for defense. Find another big hitter/outfielder and play Reed Johnson in place of Soriano.

Pitching: time to focus on a great bench team. To cross sport lines, with my example, I will remind you of the Chicago bulls: the bench was much lauded for being able to take over where Jordan and Co. left off. Who (if anyone) EVER left me feeling reassured that someone would be able to maintain a leave, stave off loaded bases, or at least assuage the damage done by preventing any more runs? Marmol could be ‘lights out’, but we generally reserved him for one inning of relief before Wood as closer. While I think they are a valuable duo, there is no one and I mean NO ONE who filled in as the middle relief position. Maybe Smardjzia (sp?) could blossom, but that would take some extreme season-ing.

Anyway, such are the opines of a 25 year old newbie. Tear apart as you please. :)