Where do the Cubs go from here?

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 9:58 AM CDT

First of all, I want to say how much I enjoy reading the various thoughts on this board. Al does a hell of a job with this site and I have learned a lot listening to the various opinions from many of the regulars. In fact, in many ways, you learn more reading this site than you do the beat reporters covering the team (and certainly the columnists), because many of those guys are conerned about upsetting the front office or players they deal with on a day to day basis. Also, there is no question in my mind, that the media uses this board to learn about fan setiment and to gauge some of their discussion.

Both 07 and 08 brought both positive and negative events to the Cubs. The problem has been, the negative has reared it's ugly head when you would expect the club to be mentally focused, motivated and on top of their game. When you play like the Cubs did in two straight post-seasons, you have to really evaluate what is going wrong and what can be done to fix it.

A few of my thoughts:

Piniella - I have made my opinion of Piniella pretty clear on this board and I won't bore folks with why I think he has been very good with this club. With that said, I think the most important thing for Piniella, is to just be Lou Piniella and not worry about anything else. At times, I feel as though he has played politician, instead of doing what he felt was right. Lou has stated many times, the game has changed and it is important for the manager to change with it (I believe he refers to the big money contracts and player egos) you need to be cognizant of. At this point, Lou is probabaly going to manage for 2 more years and then he walks away and I want him to manage this time period 100% his way and not be concerned with egos.

Hendry - Jim is another guy who I have stated my opinion on this board for a long time. Hendry has some excellent strengths as a GM, but he also has his share of negatives. For the most part, Hendry is a "players GM", not unlike you would call Dusty Baker a "players manager". He goes out of his way to take care of players when they are traded, hands out no-trade clauses like they are candy and makes promises to players that he goes out of his way to keep. This has helped him to sign guys ahead of other teams, because players talk to each other and they let others know that Hendry "will take care of you". Clearly, this can help you out in getting players you need (as long as you pick the right ones), but it can also bite you on the backend. There are times when you find out you need to change the makeup of your club (this offseason is an expample of that) and when you have the bulk of your big salary guys on no-trades, it really makes it difficult to move players for other parts that may be a better fit. Also, Hendry has never been a guy who is willing to trade players at the peak of their value, to get another guy who may be more of a need. This is something I really think he needs to change if the opportunity is there. If the Cubs want to trade any of these guys, that player can go to them as say - no, I won't accept a trade or you can trade me to any team except the 25 I have on this list (and that is usually what happens). Clearly, this limits your ability to shop talent from other clubs and make a deal that can help you. I don't know how much longer Hendry will be GM with the Cubs, but I can imagine the new owners doing their due dilligence on the Cubs payroll and not being pleased with all the backloaded deals and no-trades that can stick you with players you may not want.

The Lineup: Overall, they produced a lot of runs during the regular season, so their has to be some positive points about the makeup of the talent. IMO, the positive is the depth and the club got good returns from the lower part of the order which helped to seperate them from other clubs. Also, the club had a lot of games where they scored 10+ runs and also quite a few where they scored 3 or less. There is an element of inconsistancy that has to be addressed and this issue is always magnified in the post-season.

I am done with Soriano at leadoff, and I sure as hell hope the brain trust feels the same way. It's true that the club went well when Soriano was hot, and that is why you had so many 10+ run games and others where the offense looked completely different. For once and for the first time since 03, they have to have a leadoff hitter who is an excellent OBP guy and can steal you a base at key times to manufacture runs. During the playoffs, when your 2-3-4 hitters watch their leadoff guy look feeble at the plate, it causes them to try and do too much and we have seen this 2 straight years and some during the regular season.

Regarding the other guys in the lineup; Lee is a good hitter who can be valuable to the team, but he is longer a "feature" type guy that can hit 3rd on a championship club. In fact, they really don't have this player on the roster and who knows whether they will be able to acquire one. If they can't, just bringing in a solid leadoff guy will make a world of difference.

Position players: CF, RF and SS are the positions that should be addressed in the offseason. Will Pie be a guy they can rely on? I don't know the answer to that question, but I have serious doubts. Will Fukudome make adjustments? I think his work ethic and pride will allow him to, but that certainly is not a given. At least with Fukudome, his OBP was .350+, he plays stellar defense and knows how to run the bases. If you have to live with him in the lineup (because of his contract), he won't kill you as long as your lineup is solid and he hits 8th. I would love to upgrade SS, but it will depend on how much leeway Hendry has to sign guys and the no-trades are going to make that avenue difficult. Time will tell how the powers at be feel about giving Hendry more money.

Pitching staff: Overall, I was very pleased with the staff, especially the emergence of Dempster as a very good starter. I predicted him to fail as a starter and he proved my completely wrong. The bad news is, he did exactly what I thought he would do in the post-season game, that I thought he would do in the regular season. Was it a fluke, was he just to jazzed up pitching his first post-season game? I hope that is what it was and I am willing to chalk it up to that. I have seen the discussion about his BAIBP, and there could be something to that, but I also know he has very good stuff and that is why he is very good when he pounds the strike zone. I sign him if possible and again, this will depend on what he wants and what kind of money Hendry has to toss around. Lilly is going to be what he is - a reliable starter. Zambrano needs to be dealt with a little tougher by Lou and Larry, and let him know enouph of this childish bullshit. Harden is another story, he has dominant stuff, but I see him as another Mark Prior. You can't pick up the option and deal with that kind of crap again. I would like to see another lefty in the rotation and I would like to see Marshall get first crack at it. They need to resign Wood and add someone (could be in house) to replace Howry and they should be ok in the pen.

Not unlike last year, except to a higher level, this offseason has a lot of questions. The most important one will be how much leaway Hendry has to spend and can or will he trade any players to get pieces that fit better?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Key reaction...

Cubs were blessed with relative good health and a big slew of players who had solid 2008 campaigns that, collectively speaking, will be very difficult to replicate in 2009. The only player in the everyday lineup who you would think will produce better personal statistics is Alfonso Soriano given all the time he missed in 2008. But beyond that? Some examples…

1. Dempster and Lilly performed exceptionally for who they are which is quality major league starting pitchers. I dont’ see either matching his 2008 performance in 2009. If it were me I would let Dempster leave via free agency because handing him a 4 year contract at $50 million plus is a risk I am not willing to take.

2. Edmonds and Johnson chipped in with over 20 HRs and nearly 100 RBIs in CF. That is extremely doubtful to be replicated in 2009 by the combination of them or the dubious Felix Pie.

3. Lee has become an old man at 1st base. Going forward he is doubtful to do better than 20 HRs and 90 RBIs. In fact further decline is likely.

4. Theriot and Fontenot played out of their skin in 2008. I like both players, but let’s face it each of these guys is classic overachiever with meaningful limitation to their game.

5. Marmol chalked in with nearly 80 mostly great relief appearances. Is he going to replicate that heavy workload? The odds say no. In fact the odds say he will go backwards a bit and may succumb to arm woes.

6. Wood stayed largely healthy and effective. We all know his arm hangs on with baling wire and duct tape. If I am a betting man then I don’t like the prospects of him replicating that sort of performance two years in a row. And God forbid if Hendry signs him to a multi-year deal.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 10:30 AM CDT 0 recs

A fairly sober reaction here.

1) You’re right on both accounts, but with Lilly lightning has already struck twice in the same place now. I never expected Lilly to do what he did in 2007, let alone come close to matching it in 2008. It may be that the Cubs and Lilly are the match that has unlocked his potential. I’m not counting on it, but I’m not betting against it either.

2) I think Johnson can do in 2009 what he did in 2008. I think Edmonds would be a big disappointment if we re-signed him. I think Dome-Johnson or Dome-Pie may be the CF of 2009.

3) See comments below.

4) Fontenot almost certainly just had his career year. I’d be willing, though, to set up Fontenot-Theriot as a platoon at 2B in 2009 and see what they produce, pushing each other for more playing time. 2B’s not hard to fill if they both flop at the trade deadline.

5) Marmol should not be counted on for 2009. Hopefully conservative use of him, however, can have him fresh for 2009’s October.

6) I’m actually a little optimistic on Wood, but that may be entirely fanboy homerism.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 10:40 AM CDT up 0 recs

I have faith in Lilly at this point

His numbers in 2008 were actually worse than his numbers in 2007, except for wins. I think Lilly will be able to duplicate his numbers from this year, if not better them. He did have 10 more strikeouts this year as well.

2007 – 15-8 (34 starts), 207 innings, 3.83 era, 122 ERA+
2008 – 17-9 (34 starts), 204.7 innings, 4.09 ERA, 110 ERA+.

I really can’t make up my mind about Dempster. He pitched really well this year, but all indication point to his being extremely lucky, BABIP-wise. He is a good personality to have around the team, and I think he would really be missed. Does one year + personality justify $48 million over 4 years, I just don’t know.

When you're eight games behind, it's like eight miles; when you're eight games in front, it's like eight inches. ~ Ron Santo

by gwood on Oct 7, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

Lilly...

…is the man. Look at his numbers while he was with the Jays, then look at the offensive output the Yanks and Red Sox put up over that same period. He put up respectable numbers in that lethal division and hasn’t slowed down since coming over here.

Besides the obvious - Go Irish.

Z. He doesn't need an exclamation point. He is one.

by PopeFlick on Oct 7, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up 0 recs

Some significant changes needed

Hendry has invested money into three players who are not true #1 champion stars….Zambrano, Ramirez and Soriano. The rest is on the margins.

Zambrano is a good #2, like Darling was to Gooden, or Dyrsdale was to Koofax, Hands was to Jenkins, but he is not the biggest horse…no matter what Piniella says. That does not mean trade him it means add to him. Get a true #1 and he is now a FA from Milwaukee who likes to hit HR’s.

Ramirez when he came was a great #6 hitter…..but not the cornerstone of the offense, he is the compliment to a true Clean up hitter. But he is still valuable to trade (and send a message to the club that it means business to produce) the question is for whom.

You can go older and trade 3B for 3B as the Yankees will undoubtedly retool….and bring AROD here but the Cubs would have to overpay and probably could spend other places. The thing is the Cubs need a real cleanup hitter, a 35+ HR thumper. It could be Dunn but i think it is Holiday, still young, and a powerful hitter who could hit real well in Wrigley. But he (like Dunn) plays LF….

Back to Soriano….who would want him? Boston? Seattle? Mets? Philly? Someone would want him for the right price. I think the winning trade is Soriano for Ichiro….replace lead off for lead off and $80 M for $102M where the Cubs could trade Pie and possibly another throw in like Ceda for the best pure hitter in the game. Plus Ichiro can join his Japanese mate in Fukudome and the two of them be buddies.

Then you would move DeRosa to 3B, Fontenot to 2B and have a lineup like:
Ichiro, Theriot/Fontenot, Lee, Holiday, Soto, Fukudome, DeRosa, Fontenot/Theriot….more lefty/righty balance…..in fact if fukudome gets well he can slip back to the 5th spot and Soto goes to the 6th spot followed by Fonty and and DeRosa.

Piniella: "This is a tougher job than I thought it would be, I'm going to be honest with you."

by Ivy Walls on Oct 7, 2008 6:10 PM CDT up 0 recs

I actually agree on some of your points

Lee will continue to regress, but should still be a solid #5-6 hitter, and continue to play solid defense. Theriot needs to go to the bench where he’s best suited. I worry about Mamol and Wood’s health, but neither of them are going anywhere so there’s little that can be done about that.

That said, I have a little more faith in Fontenot and a lot more in Pie than you do. We’ll see on both of those.

However you are flat out wrong on Lilly. You keep harping this point that he had some sort of career year this year and it just doesn’t mesh with the numbers. Going by ERA+, this is actually the 5th best season of his career. His ERA+ of 110 this season isn’t very far from his career average of 104 (and was a little worse than his first year as a Cub, where he had an ERA+ of 122).

So it’s extremely reasonable to expect continued success at this level from him.

by Wreckard on Oct 7, 2008 10:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

Ted Lilly

I didn’t say Ted Lilly had a career year. Rather what I tried to express is that Ted Lilly will be hard pressed to replicate the type of performance he had in 2008. That doesnt’ mean he is going to fall off the earth. I like Lilly a great deal. Fact is he has been a godsend. But do I think he gets to 17 wins with that ERA and innings pitched total again? No.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up 0 recs

Why wouldn't he?

Wins are a dumb stat to look at, so I won’t quibble over that. But in terms of performance, this season was well within his career norms, in fact it was right around the median for his career. So… why exactly wouldn’t you expect that again? Gut feeling?

by Wreckard on Oct 7, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up 0 recs

A lot of meat here to discuss

“Where do the Cubs go from here?” is the question we’ll be asking up through Thanksgiving and start to see some answers for once the post-season is over. It’s the question Jim, Lou, and the other Cub leaders are sitting down and asking now.

In the upcoming days/weeks, I was hoping to make some posts dividing the question up by position – what are our options at corner IF, middle IF, OF, SP, and RP both taking a look at what is available and at what we already have in-house. What you’ve done already is ask the big picture question – the question, in fact, you’ve argued Jim Hendry hasn’t been asking (or answering) well enough.

Is there something beyond individual players that the Cubs need? Even if “leadership” is something that the Cubs or we decide they need, I don’t know that, as fans, we’re really in a good position to observe or critique it among players.

So, let’s look at the lead-off man situation

In house, the Cubs have Ryan Theriot, Kosuke Fukudome, and Derrek Lee who combine speed with on-base ability. Theriot’s 2008 is suspect going forward when compared to his career numbers. The low-SLG also warns of a Juan Pierre effect potential where teams refuse to walk him because they know that if he puts it in play, it will only be a single. Dome and Lee are marginal in terms of speed. And both had horrid season splits that suggest they’re either going to readjust and be much better hitters, or not at all qualified to lead off. Could Lee be trained all off-season to redevelop his base-stealing skills and start to hit the ball the other way,to focus on remaking himself as a hitter? I think it’s possible.

On the free-agent scene, there’s Rafael Furcal – an obvious fit, but also a player who has spurned Hendry in the past and has spoken positively about re-signing with the Dodgers. Furcal’s OBP has rarely been great, either, and may give us no more OBP at lead-off than Soriano. On the other hand, if Gerald Perry could do for Furcal what he’s done for Aramis and others with the Cubs… In the end, before I get my hopes up for Furcal, I want to see him available and courted by the Cubs.

Then there’s Bobby Abreu, again, not a traditional lead-off man, but he gets on base and steals. On the negative side, he’s talked about sticking with the Yankees, his defense is poor, and he’s 35. If Abreu slips out of the Yankees’ grasp, I do think we should be talking about him, even if not as a lead-off hitter.

The trade market hasn’t developed yet, but Brian Roberts may be there. But I think the thing to recognize is how hard it is to get a lead-off hitter who combines both SBs and OBP. There were, what a dozen guys this season with more than 30 SBs, and of those guys, they’re either Taveras/Bourn types who don’t get on base, or they’re premiere guys like Rollins and Reyes who aren’t getting traded.

All this is to say that there are not many options for lead-off better than Soriano. Roberts – yes, but then what do we do with Theriot-Fontenot-DeRosa? Furcal, maybe, but is he even available? Then, we have to start looking less traditional – Dome, Lee, Abreu, maybe Fontenot and give up speed altogether.

Anyway, these are some of my thoughts.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 10:34 AM CDT 0 recs

Stolen bases...

are a casualty of the Moneyball era. Beane and his disciples realized that it is better to have .OBP guys who are SMART runners. That is, they go when they can and have a high percentage. Or they are good at going from 1st to 3rd.

Both Lee and Fukudome are smart players.

The worst beer I had was pretty good.

by Worf on Oct 7, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

Stolen bases are the casualty of the run enviornment, most likely a product of a juiced baseball.

The breakeven point of SB to CS is directly related to the offensive context. It’s not that people suddenly figured out that SBs were bad, it’s that their value changed as the run context changed. In the new humidor era the SB could regain a bit more value.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 2:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

In terms of the leadoff situation...

Unfortunately, Alfonso Soriano is babied and coddled by this organization. Lou Piniella has shown zero inclination to take on Soriano or to take the step of moving him somewhere else in the lineup.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 10:44 AM CDT 0 recs

In terms of the shortstop situation...

I dont’ see the Cubs mussing up the status quo of Ryan Theriot. We can argue with this strategy until the cows come home but my guess is the organization will say Theriot proved offensive ignitor, chipped in with .385 OBP, can run and is not yet arbitration eligible therefore meaning that he is cheap.

Rafael Furcal? I don’t see it happening. In fact I don’t see much of anything happening in free agency.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 10:47 AM CDT up 0 recs

Theriot is only going to get better IMO

His base stealing percentage should rise and his fielding should get a little better… his range to his left is great.. but to his right is terrible and when he is going to his right.. his arm fails him. This should improve… this is the first time he has been an every day staple in the lineup and he led the team in OBP and was second in hits behind DLEE (who everybody loves to demonize these days). He will improve… that being said.. put him at 2nd unless you pick up brian roberts

WOW WHAT A SEASON!

by SouthsideCUBSfan on Oct 7, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

Very few shortstops get better at defense as they get older, especially at Theriot's age.

Why should he be any different?

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

I like The Riot..

Theriot played a big role with this ’08 team. He was one of our best hitters. he could move runners at any time (since most of hits went to the right side) he runs very well. but his fielding ability is the only thing that needs work. so first off fielding work is a great thing to do in spring training. So i would keep SS the same and keep LBR he for the past two years now he has shown he can be very good. Although in 07 he went from awesome to ok but he is a kid that will always play 110%. So I would like to see more of a rotation will DeRo, theriot, and LBR. Not exactly a platoon but a rotation to who is playing well. Give DeRo a couple more starts at SS. Reed what a great job he did this year and also Jimmy. They both bring veteranship to this team and good defense. I would keep the platoon until Pie shows he deserves it. If Pie works out then they can ship Reed or Jimmy at the dealine. I would also like to see Reed play more RF I know he comfortable in CF but give him more time in RF and it will come. Dome we cant just give up on cause of his contract but he needs to have a short leash.
Sori needs to be moved from leadoff. Maybe theriot leadoff Sori 2 and DLee or Rami or DeRo 3rd. We do need another bat someone that can be a DeRo and play where ever.
Pitching
I think Marmol will have another great year as long as we keep him in just the setup man.
But we DEFINITELY have to do something about this mid relief. DUMP HOWRY!!!!! go get someone that can fill that gap maybe Gaudan is that man when healthy. We didnt get to see enough of him to tell but get another arm for the pen. The starting 5 can be very tricky. Big Z struck out less this year but he seemed like a better pitcher this year then any other. he controlled his emotions alot better. Harden will be good given limitations. Demp I think will regress alittle he will be a good 3 or 4 pitcher but not as good as he showed this year. I think it was alot with the excitement to be in front of Cub fans being the starting pitcher that made him so good. As for Marquis this is a tough call. Just as he pisses you off he shows you a flash of greatness and then pisses you off again. I dont know if we can dump him so he can be a good 5 starter as he showed this year.

by bizzle4 on Oct 7, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

Lou has feinted at moving Soriano a couple of times.

What, after all, was the big Brian Roberts hullabaloo all off-season last year, if not an excuse to move Soriano? Soriano was batting 2nd in spring training. In 2007, Lou batted Soriano 3rd 7 games and 5th 2 games. Soriano responded by not hitting anything. Has he been coddled? Sure, in a way. But I don’t think it’s anything more than what Lee and Ramirez and other All-Star players get.

I think Lou will move Soriano if he gets a premiere lead-off hitter. I think he won’t if we don’t.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

Considering Lou's history...

…and the fact he is reaching the end, I am banking him saying “enouph of this shit”.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up 0 recs

Well there

is always a start. That needs to be addressed if the Cubs want a better lineup.

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Oct 7, 2008 6:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

The Winter Wheeling and Dealing

Does anybody know if Hendry has any OK to go out and get anybody? I’m sure he’s got the money to resign a few guys, Demp and Wood in particular, but who all is on the free agent market would be a good fit with this team? I’m talking realistically because this team won’t go out and get any top A plus talent because Im sure they can’t afford it.

Plus, I really think Fukudome might have to earn his RF spot again next spring because I think Lou was really disappointed in him and just won’t reward him with RF unless he has no other choice. I think the RF position is going to be a hole for a few seasons because I don’t… nor did I ever, expect much from Fukudome besides decent OBP, and good defensive. Who knows though, maybe he’ll turn it around and will hit 330. I doubt it, but I would accept it! lol

by TheHawkRules on Oct 7, 2008 10:59 AM CDT 0 recs

Lots of big money backloaded contracts and no-trade clauses makes Hendry's work difficult in my view...

It’s time to pay the piper on some of these contracts Hendry handed out like candy the past 3 years. Case in point, Jason Marquis is due $9 million plus in the final year of his contract.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 11:11 AM CDT up 0 recs

The money is there...

…I don’t think there is any question about that.

The question(s) are; will the sale situation limit his ability to spend? Will two straight playoff flops cause pause in giving Hendry considerably more dough to spend?

I would imagine, we will know the answers in the next 4-8 weeks.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up 0 recs

I think the lightning in a bottle

Was really Dempster and not Lilly. While its true we have some holes that need to be filled. The Cubs for what its worth DO NOT have a guy that in crunch time scares the hell outta you.

An Albert Pujols or a Manny or a guy like that.

Soriano, Aramis, D-Lee are an excellent supporting cast guys, but do not strike fear in the pitchers heart like a Manny would.

So with that said.

I think the Cubs should move Fukudome to CF and Soriano to RF or back to 2B and try and get Manny for LF.

Before you start telling me how Soriano will suck in RF and all that stuff. Let me ask you a simple question.

What did DeRosa do in RF that makes you totally against this move in the first place?

The only way….THE ONLY WAY the Cubs make any post season progess is to get a Manny type player in the line up. A guy who can hit the cover off the ball just about any at bat and strike fear in the hearts of the pitcher.

by Galvan316 on Oct 7, 2008 11:17 AM CDT 0 recs

I don't know that I agree

Yes, the Dodgers have Manny and the Phils have Howard, but look at the AL teams in the ALCS. Neither has a Manny type guy in the middle of the order.

Yes the Red Sox have Ortiz, but he isn’t having a typical Ortiz type year. The Rays definitely do not have that one hitter who you cannot let beat you. Longoria may be turning into that, but he is not there now.

What we need is hitters that do not cave under the pressure. Guys that will go out there and play their game regardless of the situation. This is something that our guys did not do this postseason. We were uncharacteristically impatient, swinging at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. Having a “Manny-type” would be great, but it would have been better for our guys to play the game the way we know they are capable of playing. They didn’t do that.

When you're eight games behind, it's like eight miles; when you're eight games in front, it's like eight inches. ~ Ron Santo

by gwood on Oct 7, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up 0 recs

Best Chance

In my opinion, the team that consistently gets you to the playoffs gives you the best chance to win the World Series. I don’t buy into the “built for a marathon not a sprint idea” afterall you can’t win the World Series if you dont make the playoffs.

That said, I’d keep this nucleus and add one B+/A bat or arm and then either resign or go out and get a solid reliever and sure up the bench with gamers who’ve won in October.

Guys I’d consider signing,
CC Sabathia (might as well pursue, although his contract will be huge and milwaukee wore him out)
Derek Lowe (you saw why)
Milton Bradley (if you’re going to give up on Fukudome, or move him to center)
Adam Dunn (same)

Roleplayers
Gabe Kapler (had an interesting year and knows how to win in october)
Craig Counsell (gamer)
Rocco Baldelli
Horacio Ramirez

Please sign Mark Prior to a tiny salary…It would be very low risk with a possible huge upside.

by northpaw22k on Oct 7, 2008 11:19 AM CDT 0 recs

"Please sign Mark Prior to a tiny salary"

You are not serious right?

by cubsnlinux on Oct 7, 2008 11:33 AM CDT up 0 recs

Only if...

…they make him carry that pink backpack to the pen.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 11:36 AM CDT up 0 recs

Mark Prior will not be a Cub again under Hendry.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

I say this very rarely...

I am fucking done if Prior comes back.

The worst beer I had was pretty good.

by Worf on Oct 7, 2008 12:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

He only comes back to Chicago

If needs to return some Towels…

"Aw, how could he (Jorge Orta) lose the ball in the sun, he's from Mexico." -- Harry Carey

by TheRiot Police on Oct 7, 2008 12:10 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'd rather have

Jennie Finch than Prior.

The worst beer I had was pretty good.

by Worf on Oct 7, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

Id rather have Jennie Finch too

by Galvan316 on Oct 7, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

You Mark Prior still pitches?

I thought his arm fell off.

I dunno if he’ll ever pitch again in the Majors.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 7, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up 0 recs

If you can sign a former 18 game winner

for close to a minor league contract? why not?

by northpaw22k on Oct 7, 2008 8:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

Because I'm afraid...

He’ll pull an ovary

The worst beer I had was pretty good.

by Worf on Oct 7, 2008 10:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

Mark Prior HATES us.

He wont sign under Hendry… he’s bitter at him.

Sides, id rather pay and have Schilling come for a half season than Prior. I loved him while he was with us, but he’s bitter at us…so, too bad, so sad, he’s gone.

by TheHawkRules on Oct 7, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

I have a better chance signing with the Cubs

Then Mark Prior does.

Now I realize I came up with a crazy idea about signing Manny to play LF and Sori to RF But, where would you put Dunn, Soriano and Bradley?

Bradley is an injury waiting to happen and Adam Dunn would not be someone Cubs fans would be happy with.

by Galvan316 on Oct 7, 2008 11:23 AM CDT 0 recs

I'd like to see a poll

on which is most important for Cubs to get:
A) Leadoff Hitter
B) Fearsome Slugger
C) Veteran Leader

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 11:38 AM CDT 0 recs

A...

…because even if they can’t add the lefty slugger, it automatically makes the rest of your order better.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up 0 recs

You're on record for getting Furcal, so let's run this down the order

Doing some rough 2009 estimates -

Furcal .350 OBP .415 SLG
DeRo .370/.425
Sori .345/.525
Rami .370/.540
DLee .375/.475
Soto .360/.500
Dome .365/.400
Pie/Riot/Font ?/?

Being devil’s advocate here, I’m looking at a whole lot of RH bats in the middle of this lineup. You could swap Dome or Fontenot up to #2, but that’s still a lot of righties. Maybe that’s not a big deal, but it’s seemed to be a driving principle for Lou in lineup construction.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think it is safe to say the leadoff hitter will either be Soriano or Theriot

Dependent on whether, as MPH suggests, Lou Piniella is finally willing to take on Alfonso Soriano and do the right thing by the lineup and move him down to the #5 or #6 hole.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think it is safe to say that the leadoff hitter will either be Soriano or someone not on the team.

If Lou was going to get Soriano to move for Theriot, he’d have done it by now. Lou needs a name to move Soriano. I could be wrong, but that’s my take.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

I tend to agree

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

Actually...

…I have said the better leadoff hitter is Roberts, but Furcal gives you the benefit of also upgrading defense at the SS position. You would have to evaluate which one outweighs the other.

With that said, Furcal would be a huge upgrade over Soriano, simply because you wouldn’t have the prolonged cold spells where he wasn’t getting on base.

One other point. I think part of Lou putting Fukudome in the 2 hole was to give Lowe an early look at a lefty, so he couldn’t keep approaching hitters the same way through the lineup. He could have gone with Fotenot, but we don’t know how bad DeRosa’s calf was and I also think he wanted his best defense out there in game one.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Can you keep him on the field? He has a lot of injuries in his past.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 7, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

Clearly...

…it would depend on his health and they would have to check that out. But, I was of the understanding it was only this last year he had problems?

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 7, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

You're right. Last year he played in 138 games. The previous 5 years, he averaged

150+. It just seems like he has had a lot of nicks and dings. His reported age is 30. He seems older, but 2000 was his first year.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 7, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

Dodgers will likely sign Furcal

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

I see no reason why the wouldn't. He has been

very productive for them and he’s only 30. He should have some good offensive seasons ahead of him and they have the money.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 7, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Furcal-Roberts

I agree Roberts is preferrable as a straight-up lead-off choice. And part of why I think that is because of just how streaky Furcal is. Check his 05-06-07 splits. Furcal is always ice cold two months of the year and in 05, it was the whole first half. The problem is that 2B is our position of strength and SS our position of weakness.

Of course, it may be that neither is available to us.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

Leadoff Hitter

Fearsome slugger would be nice but we have Aramis Ramirez and Soriano… each of them adding their own slugging abilities and Ramirez with his clutch hitting… a veteran leader not so much because I recall all year the team saying that this is the best “team” they have played on in terms of in the club house. Everyone got along, everyone was loose, alot of joking around. Wood is a good leader and so is Dempster as far as veterans are concerned. And to be honest with you… wouldnt you consider Lee a good veteran leader… hes not hot headed, he plays good baseball on the field and up to bat.. So yea… Leadoff hitter is what we need

WOW WHAT A SEASON!

by SouthsideCUBSfan on Oct 7, 2008 12:03 PM CDT up 0 recs

B!!!!!!!!

by Galvan316 on Oct 7, 2008 11:40 AM CDT 0 recs

Adam Dunn

I look at the Cubs and see screaming need for a primetime left-handed hitting run producer. I look at Adam Dunn and see a guy who could hit 50 HRs, drive in 110 and walk 100 times in his sleep at Wrigley. But also a guy who needs to be DHing in the American League.

This all said I would LOVE to explore the idea of signing Dunn to play 1st base. He’s played the position before with not the best results. But it IS worth investigating.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 7, 2008 12:07 PM CDT 0 recs

I'm open to Dunn at 1B

but then you HAVE to get a SS who can throw with accuracy and Aramis’ gold glove hopes will be over.

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 12:19 PM CDT up 0 recs

Just eyeballing a scouting report...

…and not to say I get the best scouting reports because I don’t, but Dunn’s tools are a better match to LF than 1B – he has such bad hands and has a decent arm for a LF, exactly the opposite of the sort of guy you think about at first, a good hands/bad arm sort.

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Oct 7, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think Dunn at first would have you begging for DLee after about 2 weeks.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 7, 2008 2:22 PM CDT up 0 recs

What's the ideal configuration -

theoretically if we signed Dunn and had an opening at 1B and RF would you move Dunn to LF, to RF, move Soriano to RF or move Soriano to 1B?

by DGU on Oct 7, 2008 3:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

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