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Our Hindsight Bias

I'm a little shocked by the outrage that a lot of Cubs fans are expressing on here and on the sports talk radio shows.  People are bitching and moaning about Lee and Ramirez's no-trade clauses, yet when they signed, people were ecstatic. 

When Ramirez re-signed in November of 2006, there were reports that teams like the Angels were prepared to offer him upwards of $90 million if he hit the market.  Everyone praised Jim Hendry and Aramis for taking a "hometown discount" and wanting to win here.  He was and is the most productive 3rd baseman the Cubs have had since Santo.  He has put up great numbers during the regular season and proved to be the most clutch player we have, yet people want to run him out of town for pulling an A-Rod in the playoffs. 

Lee was coming off his monster MVP-caliber season of '05 when he signed his 5-year $65 million extension, which was a bargain at the time for the numbers he was putting up.  A Gold Glover at first, as well as being such a stand-up guy, it was a no-brainer to make him a cornerstone of our team. 

How can we honestly sit here now with a straight face and say that those deals should've never been offered?  If we let Ramirez and Lee go in 2006, there would've been no 2007 or 2008 playoff appearances, and we'd be all bitching and moaning about management not putting a winning team on the field.  I have full confidence that  Jim Hendry and Lou to go out there and get us a leadoff man (TTTSNBN), a power hitting lefty, and re-arrange the batting order.  We were a 97-win team, we are not that far off from where we want to go. 

 

Poll
If they didn't have no-trade clauses, would you trade Derrek Lee and/or Aramis Ramirez?
I would trade DP-Lee, but not Ramirez.
37 votes
I would trade "Mr. Regular Season Clutch" Ramirez, but not Lee.
2 votes
Trade them both. We will never win a World Series with them.
3 votes
Keep them both. We will win with these guys next year, 3rd times a charm!
41 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation, Bleed Cubbie Blue, or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief. FanPost opinions are, however, valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

0 recs | Comment 30 comments

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I haven't seen all that

many people demanding that Ramirez be traded. Lee on the other hand, has been the most criticized Cub and despite his solid post-season, definitely needs to go. We can’t afford to have a first baseman who slugs under .400 in the second half. He pulled a Riot in august, posting a higher OBP than SLG. Thats never a good thing.

by dakoose on Oct 7, 2008 3:33 PM CDT   0 recs

What if...

We just moved him down in the order? His numbers look good, for a #6 hitter.

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Oct 7, 2008 3:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ideally, I would keep him and let

him hit sixth, but I don’t see a scenario where we get a new number three hitter that doesn’t replace him at first base. Assume we get Dunn or Texiera, the two left handed hitters who fit the number three hitter profile. Texiera would replace Lee and Dunn would likely do the same, although right field is a possibility. Who am I kidding? Right Field is not a possibility for Dunn.

by dakoose on Oct 7, 2008 4:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"many people" are not talking about trading Ramirez.

What many people are talking about is -

1. Move Soriano out of the leadoff spot
2. Move Lee out of the number 3 hole.

by cubsnlinux on Oct 7, 2008 8:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i like this

if only soriano wasn’t such a spoiled brat about being a leadoff hitter.

by nathew on Oct 7, 2008 9:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Now might be a good time to deal Lee

he still has much value, and there are several teams in need of a 1st sacker. Let’s be honest, he just hasn’t been the same guy he was before the collision with Furcal. He started out great this year, but then cam the DP’s and lack of power.

Anyone who watches the team closely knows the proverbial writing is on the wall. I love the guys professionalism, but it’s about winning. Don’t ask me who we replace him with though!!!

Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Oct 7, 2008 3:44 PM CDT   0 recs

I would trade Lee to get a LH bat in the lineup

The Cubs need a LH power hitter, and there are limited places where that individual can play. 1b makes sense.

I like Lee, but he has not been the same player since breaking his wrist and his daughter’s illness. I think he is understandably distracted and that it is affecting his game.

In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this? -Oysterband

by Ross on Oct 7, 2008 3:44 PM CDT   0 recs

I never thought I'd say this so soon...

…but I’d move DLee for the right deal, too. I could live with the double play balls if he were hitting for more power, but his slugging really dropped this season. It was great the first month or so but then disappeared never to return.

I think he’s still a good hitter when it comes to singles and doubles and, yeah, his defense at first base is fantastic. But his value will probably only drop going forward, so, now may be the time. I’d feel bad seeing him go, and I won’t be completely outraged if he sticks around but…there it is.

So this is how it ends.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 7, 2008 3:47 PM CDT   0 recs

I find myself agreeing with all of this.

Derrek Lee has been a fine player for the Cubs and is a class act. Nevertheless, I think it’s time to upgrade. Mark Teixeira is undoubtedly done in Anaheim — the Angels might be very interested.

And if that’s the case, go and deal him there and sign Teixeira.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 7, 2008 4:02 PM CDT   0 recs

For Figgins?

That would be nice.

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Oct 7, 2008 4:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

IF Lee is moved...

the only replacement that should even be entertained is Teixeira (and Pujols or Morneau but that’s not happening).

Teixeira has power from both sides of the plate and is just now entering his prime. He has won a pair of Gold Gloves so his defense can be reasoned to be above average. He’s split time between the #3 and #4 spot in the order and could slide in ahead of Ramirez about as seamlessly as possible for a FA acquisition. And his recent/only postseason numbers at minimum show he didn’t have a Soriano type brain fart yet.

I remember back in the 2001 draft the options available to the Cubs were Mauer, Prior, and Teixeira. The catcher they haven’t had since Hundley, the 3B they haven’t had since Santo, or the best pitcher to come out in a long time. The Twins made their choice the Cubs made theirs. I’ve kept myself from playing Hot-Stove arm chair GM but Teixeira would be on my wish list. As would Ichiro, Sabathia, and some relievers.

by CubFan81 on Oct 7, 2008 4:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I saw it mentioned in another
What about Soriano at First? Assuming someone outbids for Teix and Lee can be moved for good talent, one would think a former 2B could play 1B. He couldn't be worse than... (insert bad 1B joke here).

This move could even improve LF defense.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 7, 2008 4:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He would...

Hop off the bag everytime he caught the ball, and the runner would be safe.

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Oct 7, 2008 4:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ha ha.

If the free agents and available 1B this winter are sparse, LF may present better value. Just sayin.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 7, 2008 4:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, that concept blows my mind.

Alfonso Soriano playing first base. Personally, I just can’t see it. I know he played second base and all, but he doesn’t appear to have the focus to play first base. Hop or no hop, I could just see him making all sorts of crazy errors.

So this is how it ends.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 7, 2008 4:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I know.

I also hate to see him switched again. That said, perhaps being in the IF improves his focus. Does anyone remember if his gaffs were fielding or throwing? I can’t remember.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 7, 2008 4:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The marginal gain of replacing Lee with Teixeira....

…is about the same as replacing Theriot with Furcal. And that costs you a lot less money.

by Wreckard on Oct 7, 2008 4:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not really.

Teixeira isn’t going to get $20M+ per year, as Scott Boras wants. But I could see him in the $15-$17 range — that’s not that much more than Lee, and Teixeira is five years younger. I’d spend the money to get the next five years of Teixeira’s career.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 9:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That would only be true if we could simply dump Lee

…but there’s no way that anyone would take his contract without us eating a lot of money. You have to add that to the cost of Teixeira – you’ll be paying at least some of Lee’s salary for the rest of his deal.

Lee would have to waive his NTC, which usually requires some kind of compensation (additional years, etc). That lowers his trade value even more.

So assuming that we’re so willing to get rid of him that we’re willing to pay part of his salary and get nothing in return, what have we gained? About 2-3 wins per year. I just don’t think that’s worth $15M (assuming $16M – 17M/ year for Tex + $6-7M of Lee’s salary for the next 3 years, minus the remainder of Lee’s salary that his new team would be paying).

Furcal adds you 3-4 wins and costs you $10-12M, and doesn’t require the massive headache of shedding Lee’s contract (which he may not even be open to). It’s also a shorter commitment, though it’s slightly higher risk.

Don’t get me wrong – Lee’s contract is an albatross, and should be a cautionary tale going into the Ryan Dempster talks. But he’s still an average to above average first baseman, and we have other positions where we’ve gotten below-average production – why not concentrate on those areas instead?

by Wreckard on Oct 8, 2008 9:59 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's an albatross now...

But after that 2005, he was in line for a huge deal. Who could’ve forseen this kind of power outage?

Someday we'll go all the way...

by CubsBullsBears on Oct 8, 2008 3:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I hadn't seriously considered this option until you all kept bringing it up but I have to agree...

DLee reminds me of the last year Banks started most games at 1B. There was an emotional attachment, occasional glympsis of faded power and a few home runs but not the season where he would be an MVP or even gold glove at 1B. Teixeira would be an improvement. We don’t need to regress at third, where, admittedly, as much as I love Ron Cey, Aramis is the best we’ve had on the corner since Ron and that’s saying something. Dlee, for whatever reason, is not a “captain” of the team and we need someone who is. We’ve got lots of good options for optimizing the OF with players we have, so we just need to solve the 1B power hitter role and a competent SS who has range, an arm and gets on base and doesn’t get thrown out on bonehead plays a lot. I don’t know the answers but those are the questions. I wouldn’t mess with the pitching if you don’t sucked in to extraordinarily long contract terms. they all have one more good year in them and I think Z might be finally turning the corner emotionally based on his demeanor during the 4 error inning. If there were some way to steal CC cheaply by promising to just give him the team in 5 years that would be great becuase Z would either shit or get off the pot in the growing up department. the whole Sori, Edmonds, Johnson, Fukedome, Hoffpauir, Pie outfield buzz is uninteresting to the max. Some combination of those guys will work and Lou just needs to get some data between now and April 6.

Phase III for Lou is now to simply get the right performer in the optimized fielding position and batting position and let it run the first month of the season.

2009 opening day starting lineup and pitching rotation should excite more that we were about the 2008 version and I’m not denigrating the 2008 team. I just see us coming out of the blocks much more locked in to roles and expectations., to good effect for the regular season reacord.

Tommie Agee was out.

by Weeghman Park on Oct 8, 2008 12:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What about his defense

It seems odd to me that so many will defend Dome based on defense but i would think that Lees number combined with he defense would be better than an average fielder with some what better numbers. I dont know all the stats and everything on zone rating and other metrics that people quote but he has saved alot of balls that may have gotten past other fielders. It has to count for something.

Let go cubs

by cubsfaninkc on Oct 7, 2008 4:36 PM CDT   0 recs

I assume this was responding to me and I agree.

However, if DLee can bring a + shortstop and Theriot/Fontenot can play their natural position, the defensive changes to the infield may cancel each other out.

I like DLee and don’t want to see him go. However, if the team is too right handed and salary heavy, then something has to give somewhere.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 7, 2008 4:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah

But a lefty RF who can hit rather than screw himself into the ground with every strike-out would be nice.

by StevenABQ on Oct 8, 2008 8:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

According to THT's Zone Ratings,

Lee isn’t as good with the glove as he once was. He was the eleventh best first baseman in all of baseball this year in terms of their revised zone ratings. Oddly enough, eleventh is the highest he has been since THT has kept these ratings. He is good defensively, but not that good. Oddly enough, the hefty Miguel Cabrera ranked ahead of him, which is kind of shocking.

by dakoose on Oct 8, 2008 12:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I would... (The Call for Curt Shilling Post)

…trade DLee like I would anybody else. Only if I got somebody who was better. Maybe DLEE could be used as trade bait to get somebody to fill an OF spot or something. I don’t know, I have a feeling DLEE will still be around next season, work harder in the off season, and will have a much better 09.

I still think maybe the Cubs should take a look at Curt Schilling this offseason. He just came out and said he may return for half a season, and IF HE STILL HAS ANYTHING LEFT, I think he could be awesome for this team. Especially that bulldogish attitude he has during playoff time. What do you all think?

by TheHawkRules on Oct 7, 2008 11:41 PM CDT   0 recs

No, no, a thousand times no.

42 years old? Coming off a shoulder problem and not pitching for a full season?

Forget it. He’s done.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 9:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, but...

… he’s been all over the news stating he’d only pitch half a season. I just wondered if he might be a good number 5 starter option… that is, if he STILL has anything after surgery. That’s all I said.

Plus, I think his attitude would have been useful on this team during the playoffs. It might be also next season. Thats all I said…

by TheHawkRules on Oct 8, 2008 10:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thumbs down on Schilling.

His addition intrigued me going into this season, but the Cubs don’t need another Jon Lieber who’s going to pitch a few times and then disappear onto the DL for months at a time. Leave Curt to his blog and his software company.

So this is how it ends.

by dat cubfan daver on Oct 8, 2008 10:29 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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