My offseason thoughts/predictions

by illini23 on Oct 7, 2008 10:12 PM CDT Comment 25 comments

Ok, now that i've had a couple of days to let this crushing defeat sink in I think I'm ready to talk about next season. I don't know if I'll be able to get as invested in the Cubs next year as I was this year, but I'll defintely still watch them.

The first priority is to get Jim Hendry a contract extentsion. Best GM in baseball.

Then the next priorities need to be resigning Dempster, Wood, and accepting Rich Harden's option(which I believe tomorrow is the deadline). I think we should resign Henry Blanco also.

Crane Kenney already said he expects the payroll to jump up in 09' which means there are defintely a couple of moves that are going to be made.

Rafael Furcal is a FA this offseason and I have a feeling the Cubs are going to make a big push for him. If that doesn't work out they'd likely pursue a trade for Brian Roberts. I'd prefer Furcal because we wouldn't have to give up prospects, but either way I expect one of these guys to be on the team next year.

Raul Ibanez --who the Cubs pursued at the trade deadline -- is a free agent this summer and i'd think he would get alot of consideration He is a great clubhouse guy and would give us the left handed bat we need in the middle of the lineup. Milton Bradley would be a nice option also if we can't get Ibanez, but he has some question marks with his attitude and injury history. Bobby Abreu is another option.

I think they'll likely add another bullpen arm or two. Someone like Damaso Marte maybe. They also might try to pursue another SP like CC Sabathia or AJ Burnett. That seems highly unlikely but who knows..

My projected lineup for 09:

1.Rafael Furcal, SS
2.Ryan Theriot/Mark DeRosa, 2B
3.Raul Ibanez, RF
4.Aramis Ramirez, 3B
5.Alfonso Soriano, LF
6.Derrek Lee, 1B
7.Geovany Soto, C
8.Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome/Felix Pie, CF

Pitching Staff:

1.Carlos Zambrano
2.Ryan Dempster
3.Ted Lilly
4.Rich Harden
5.Jason Marquis/Rich Hill/Chad Gaudin/Jeff Samardzija

The #5 spot is completely up in the air. There might be a few other candidates for that spot also.

Thoughts?

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Keep in mind with regard to the payroll

A good part of the bump is going to be due to increases that Lilly, Fukudome and a few others are owed. I’m not sure how much flexibility they’ll really have. Dave Kaplan from WGN claims they’ll try to trade Soriano, but even he acknowledges that’s unlikely to happen.

Assuming the “big 3” are still Cubs, your lineup might not be far off. I’m not sure Ibanez is a #3 hitter, though. Regarding the rotation — I think Rich Hill has thrown his last pitch as a member of the Chicago Cubs; we’ll see.

I’d love to see them get Furcal AND Roberts, but I’m not sure how feasible that is.

Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson

by Shanghai Badger on Oct 7, 2008 11:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It's worth considering how tradeable Soriano might or might not be.

The Angels could have interest in Soriano, especially if we took Gary Matthews Jr. back. Soriano is their kind of player and they have money. Similarly, I be the Dodgers would love to do a deal swapping Soriano and Pierre. Obviously in both of those deals we would get something else significantly good besides Pierre/Lilsarge.

The Mariners do stupid things and don’t particularly care for OBP. I’m not sure what they’d trade.

The Giants have been looking for a cornerpiece hitter since Bonds was exiled. But they have an overflow of OFs.

Money is no object for the Mets. This may be the best match as both clubs may be looking to shake things up. We’ve read about their frustration with Reyes and Wright and obviously we could dream about some scenario where the Mets decide they need gumption and scrap and trade Jose Reyes for Theriot and Soriano. I’m not getting my hopes up, though.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 8, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think that if Theriot isnt going to be the starting short stop he should be traded away, I don’t see him being a good bench player, and if Derosa is still on the team he diserves the starting position more than anyone else.

"You must try to generate happiness within yourself. If you aren't happy in one place, chances are you won't be happy anyplace."

by All The Way on Oct 7, 2008 11:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Theriot on bench

Actually Theriot has proven to be an excellent bench player. In 2006 and early 2007 he did an excellent job filling in when needed. That’s how he got the starting SS role.

by ak123 on Oct 8, 2008 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's also cost effective. If people

are talking about spending on SS, keeping the bench low on $$$ is important.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 8, 2008 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But you also can't

Have a bench with Theriot and Fukudome. I’d rather have Theriot on a bench and Fukudome gone because I would have faith Theriot could get on base in many situations.

by ak123 on Oct 8, 2008 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why can't you have Theriot and Fukudome on the same bench?

Do they no like each other or something?

by Wreckard on Oct 8, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The ONLY way the Cubs trade Soriano

Is if Manny Ramirez is in Cubbie Blue

by Galvan316 on Oct 8, 2008 12:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's what we need

…an aging, egotistical head case of a slugger in left field. We’ve never had any problems with that before.

by Wreckard on Oct 8, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's gonna take a lot more than a bump to accomplish that.

Lets look at this best case scenario. Lets assume that somehow the Cubs open up 30 million of their payroll. Once you resign Dempster and Wood, how much is left? Ten million at most. Dempster will demand at least 10 million annually and Wood will get at least 5-6 million on the open market, if not more. How is that going to be enough to go out and get Furcal AND Ibanez. We need to be a bit more realistic with our off-season expectations. The payroll will increase just because of the back-loaded contracts, taking away some of the extra money Kenney is talking about. There is only so much Hendry will be able to do.

by dakoose on Oct 8, 2008 12:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Let one of them walk...

Who would be more replaceable, Wood or Dempster?

As much as it pains me, itd be Wood. Dempster will be the most pursued starter after Carsten Charles Sabathia and whatver A.J. stands for Burnett.

Marmol can easily be a closer

Other than that I like the lineup posted above, with the exception of Ibanez, but I guess if he comes cheaper than Abreu and no other trade can be had, then so be it.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 8:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dempster might not be the best choice.

I don’t know how much Derek Lowe will cost, but if the difference is only one or two million annually, I would much rather go with Lowe, who I think we all agree is the safer pick. Dempster’s ERA was better this season, but his peripherals aren’t as strong as Lowe’s. Although Ryan struck out a few more per nine innings, Lowe had a much better walk rate. I also would rather have Lowe because of his groundball tendencies, which are a good fit for Wrigley.

by dakoose on Oct 8, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting, I hadnt thought of Lowe

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much the payroll...

…is going to go up is the key here. With the backloaded deals alone, the payroll is going to go up without adding any players.

This is just my opinion, if they are going to sign a guy like Furcal, Dempster and a left handed bat, you are talking about 35 million more dollars + what escalates on the backloaded part. At that pace, your talking about 155-160 mil payroll.

I don’t know, we’ll have to see.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 8:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They gotta get this sale moving...

So they can have some sort of clear cut direction from the top down

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

From the look of things...

…I don’t think there is anyway possible, the new owners will be in place to have an “official” say in how high payroll can go for 09. In fact, some folks are now saying this thing could drag into next season.

With that said, I think the process will be something like this:

October organizational meetings will evaluate the team and where they fell short and come up with a “wish list” of what they would like to do from a baseball standpoint. The projected necessary increase in payroll will be given to Kenney to get approval from Zell. Considering they are in the process of bidding (and the bidding was based on past profits and projected future profits), I don’t see anyway that Zell’s group doesn’t run these projected expenditures by the ownership candidates for their buyoff.

Its really the same as you or I making an offer on an existing business and then during the process, that business finds out they need to spend a high dollar amount on a piece of equipment that needs to be replaced and they will be paying for it over 5 years. In that circumstance, they would have to inform you of that liability, because it changes the financial makeup of what you are offering to buy. I see the same thing happening here, so you may get an early view of how much the new owners are willing to spend.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds reasonable

I was hoping that once a bid is accepted, even before the team is legally transfered, that would then allow for a new road map, if you will, to be in place even before all the legal particulars are through.

It hasnt really slowed things down the past two years, so i suspect youre right.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This can go several different ways...

…but I think you can bank on them acquiring a leadoff man and probably a left handed bat with power. Beyond that, they will try to sign Dempster as well. Everything depends on how much money they can go up to.

Regarding Hendry, I can’t agree on the “best GM in baseball” comment. I would rank him middle of the road, as their are other guys who have been much more successful building their farm system and also being more efficient in how the spend money. His strength is signing guys (because playes trust him) and he is going to need that this offseason.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 10:50 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I will go on record...

with my predictions. I am feeling like Nostradamus right now. You can all laugh at me later. And I am not including that Rondell White will sign with the team!

1. The Cubs will resign Dempster for 4 yrs/ 50 million
2. They will resign wood to 2 yrs/ 16 million
3. They will trade several pieces including Pie and possibly Marshall/ Hill to the Royals for David DeJesus as an answer for an everyday CF and a left handed bat. They will also try to make DeJesus their leadoff hitter.
4. There will be some sort of trade with San Diego for Khalil Greene likely involving Fukudome and us eating a substantial portion of his contract.
5. They will resign Reed Johnson to help in RF

by nickler on Oct 8, 2008 12:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The trade for DeJesus may happen

but I wonder if the Royals have enough OFs and wouldn’t want Pie.

DeJesus is health risky.

by DGU on Oct 8, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like no 4

But I dont see DeJesus as an answer, I think its generally accepted he cant really play CF.

But if youre gonna give wood 8M/year and Demspter 12.5M/year, thats 20M, might as well get CC instead and use Marmol as a closer

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am going

to backtrack on that whole Khalil Greene prediction. That is just crazy.

by nickler on Oct 8, 2008 12:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I dont know..

The Padres are trying to get some money back from him, so there might be some bad blood now, he’s a defensive upgrade, but youd need to replace Theriots OBP elsewhere in the lineup

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haven't heard this anywhere, so I'll float it here...

Apparently, Joe Girardi is less than enamored with Robinson Canó, who signed a big contract last year (4/$30M through 2011). Canó is a LHB with power, but has some issues with fielding and hustling. He is young, however, and very talented. Supposedly, the Yanks will offer him up for a SP if they don’t get CC (and maybe even if they do).

Suppose the Cubs offer Marquis and DeRo for Canó. The Yanks would probably demand Lilly or Harden and DeRo. Assuming the Cubs re-sign Dempster, they would still have four quality starters plus Marshall. They would also be replacing a RHB with a LHB, with about the same power, and saving about $9M in 2009.

Would you make that trade?

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 8, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

D lee, J Pierre, T Hollandsworth. (R Furcal)

Do you see the Scenario Here after the cubs lost to the marlins in 03 they went out and signed the Players that helped beat them, This system does not work for the Cubs,DONT SIGN FURCAL.

by NYCUB FAN on Oct 8, 2008 7:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs