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We should only offer arbritration to Kerry and Demps and here is why

The elias rankings are slowly but surely coming out and dempster and kerry are both type a free agents... Lets take the 20 million we will pay them combined next year offer them arbritation and thats it tthey wont accept and take their four first round plus supplemental picks rebuild the farm system and sign Sabathia..... This is how to get sabathia. if they both agee to one year arbritation deals then we win becuase we assume hardly any risk. If not then we get four first rounders and enough free agent money to land Jaws...

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Your argument is sound

But it won´t happen. Maybe if we were the Red Sox… who let Martinez and Damon go at exactly the right moment in the careers even if they were tough moves. I like Demp and Wood a lot, especially as people, but I´m not confident enough in either to pay out the money they will command. And 4 first round picks are something to at least consider hard and long.

by Luis on Oct 8, 2008 3:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good call

on the Pedro/Damon reference, same kind of situation. Jim Hendry has to be completely honest with himself when he asks “will Dempster EVER come close to those numbers again?” The answer is in all likeliness no, so now is the time to let him walk, as other teams will overpay for him.

Kerry is a tougher call. Is he willing to stay for less money than he could get elsewhere? If so, then keep him and let him and Marmol set up for KRod when the Cubs give him pisspots of money!!!

Demp and Rich: proof that people that live in igloos and say "eh" can contibute!

by Canadian Cubs Fan on Oct 8, 2008 6:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do not want KRod

one word…overrated

Clever signature line

by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Oct 8, 2008 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hendry was willing to let Moises and Matt Clement walk.

We’ll see.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 8, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pay them and resign them

Now that it seems that Wood’s arm lasted one whole year in the pen as a closer certainly adds a stability we haven’t had in a few years. Wood’s a class act and I think he’d want to stay. Barring a meltdown in his own situation, I like to think Dempster will pitch at least at the same level he has this year in 2009.

The drama of arbitration is part of the business but seriously, the Cubs would be insane to press it too long. They’re going to need them, plain and simple for the fact that good pitching is still going to be hard to get. A chase for Sabathia, if the Cubs want him, had better not keep Demp and Woody up in the air – their performance this year warrants some decent respect.

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 8, 2008 6:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Dempster

Will the people that predicted he’d suck this year just admit they were wrong instead of saying okay he’ll suck next year.

Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 8, 2008 8:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like Dempster

and his loyalty. He had a great year, he had really good stuff. But, he also got great run support which Marquis didn’t. As bad as people have bashed Marquis, you take some of Demp’s games when the Cubs scored 6 or more and give them to Marquis when they scored 2 or 3 and their win totals come pretty close. Don’t get me wrong, I think Dempster is a better pitcher than Marquis, but he could afford to give up a few more runs game in and game out. Remember that one season with Tapani (I think?). He pitched lights out and they never scored for him. That’s why the pitcher’s W-L records are a poor indicator of his prowess. I say resign him, if he falters, I’m sure we will have someone sucking in the pen to replace lol

Woody proved he could pitch a full season without arm problems, I say resign him. I love the idea of a Marmol/Wood 8th and 9th again. If Woody falters or gets hurt, you have White Castle to fall back on.

"WGN, Channel 9 Cubs Baseball, Excitingly, Importantly, Dramatically Yours." - Jack Brickhouse

by BigJohnAZ on Oct 8, 2008 8:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is a wide range of performance between suck and not suck.

Dempster is likely to pitch like Ted Lilly next year, which is by no means a bad pitching performance. But he’s coming off a year where he pitched like Jake Peavy and it’s insane to suggest that he’s as good as Jake Peavy.

And in an offseason where a player like Kyle Lohse gets 4/41, how much money is Dempster likely to get? Well damn more than I’d like to spend on him.

by cwyers on Oct 8, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Career Year

Ryan Dempster had a Career Year that he is not going to duplicate. His prediction of a world Series Win Certainly had a Bearing on his Excellent Season, As Much as I like Dempster I think the Cubs would be Better off using that Money to sign a Bonified center fielder who can carry this team in the Playoffs.

by NYCUB FAN on Oct 8, 2008 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sabathia

Are we going to get back into reality about this? Seriously…The only team NOT on the west coast that is willing to shell out the cash Sabathia will demand (to stay away from the west coast) is the Yankees. They already are feeling incredible pressure from all over, not the least of which is from the fans — fans who are expecting nothing short of post-season glory next year. New Ballpark, high ticket prices, coming off crummy season all = Leaders in bidding for CC, that will spare no expense. If Dempster and Wood are allowed to walk, then we will need to add someone, but I doubt it will be of the caliber of CC, at least in terms of performance of this season. In addition, lets not forget the drive (insatiable hunger) for a speedy left-handed bat.

by StevenABQ on Oct 8, 2008 8:15 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The great CC

The Great CC was a choker in the playoffs.

The team that got him won 1 whole game more in the playoffs than we did.

Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.

by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 8, 2008 8:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You can't fault CC for that

The guy threw over 250 innings and pitched repeatedly after 3 days rest. The Brewers had no other pitchers and they knew that.

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 8, 2008 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Choker?

Did you see what he did to get the Brewers to the playoffs? He didn’t have a good game but you have no idea what you are talking about calling him a choker.

by rlpete on Oct 8, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A Proven Choker

Ri Pete I don’t know what you are not seeing, in last years Playoffs for the Indians CC had 2 Terrible outings against the Yankees than the ReD Sox.Not Mediocre, Not OK they were terrible and he Picked up right where he left off last Year in Post Season.

by NYCUB FAN on Oct 8, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ridiculous comment...

His last 5-6 starts for the Brewers might as well be labeled Playoff games due to their implications. He pitched great with the pressure on down the stretch, and just fizzled a little bit after going so long without normal rest.

Free Ronny Cedeno

by Kansas25 on Oct 8, 2008 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree...

…this guy is going to break the bank, especially being a lefty.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

However,...

… what is mentioned above, “fizzling without normal rest”, and throwing a ton of innings again this year, would make me worry about him, especially given his weight.

Just sayin’.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...

I dont really clamor for CC as I dont see pitching as the teams problem, plus if he gets like a 7 year deal for around 20M a year, hes bound to break down at some point, despite his clean record thus far.

I like the idea of stock piling first rounders, if only this wasnt the Cubs.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 8:34 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the breakdown concept

applies to Demp as well. I expect he can come back with another good year, but is 1 more year worth a 5/50 commitment?

I’d rather have picks as well.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 8, 2008 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dont know if its breakdown with Demspter that worries me...

So much as this being his peak season, which seems probable when you look at his career numbers. But ive said on here before that I think he can still be an above average MLB starter, even if his ERA goes up a full run, its still below 4 right?

But say he gets 4/48M, how confident are you in his ability to say above average over those four years?

On the other hand, Im sure many worried the same thing about the Lilly deal, and now thats looking like a great deal, but he had more of a track record than Dempster…..so its a gamble for sure.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why would he take 4/48?

Kyle Lohse just got 4/41 from the Cardinals to reup with them! Carlos Silva got 4/48 from the Mariners last offseason – figure in salary inflation (generally 10% per offseason in baseball) and that’s a $53 million dollar contract. For Carlos Silva.

by cwyers on Oct 8, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was just off the top of my head

The point was hes gonna get prime dollars and I doubt if he can repeat this performance.

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Oct 8, 2008 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I honestly think that Dempster gets an offer...

…in the 4/60 or 5/75 range from at least one team this offseason. The going rate for a league-average starter these days is $10-$12 million dollars a season. A real ace like Sabathia or Santana is probably around $20 million. So I’d look at Dempster getting around $15 million. The big question for me is whether or not some team will go to five years.

by cwyers on Oct 8, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay...

4/60 or 5/75. If he can’t perform out the length of the contract that leaves some time where he is dead money. Look at what having Carpenter as dead money has done to the Cards the last two years.

As stated, I like Demp, but don’t see him maintaining the level of health and success for 4-5 years.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 8, 2008 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the Cubs should handle this

the same way the Red Sox handled Mike Lowell last off season. The Red Sox offered Lowell 3 years and let him know that’s as far as they were willing to go.

If he wanted to stay with the Red Sox, he could take it, and if not, he could seek work elsewhere. Guess what, he took it! I have a feeling Dempster would take less years to stay in Chicago.

I think less years is more relevant than the per year average of the contract. The more years there are on a players contract, the greater the chance of injuries happening during at least one of those years. (i.e. Billy Wagner, the Phillies were only willing to offer him 3 years, the Mets gave him 4 and look how that worked out.)

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 8, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You could...

… give him a three-year deal with two option years, which would kick in after X amount of innings or starts, say, in the first three.

That might work.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 9, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

just make sure

they are TEAM options and not PLAYER options (Jim Hendry doesn’t seem to grasp the difference…)

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 9, 2008 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll take the picks for Demp

But I’d rather keep Wood. He had a good year, and he would solidify an excellent bullpen. Guzman, Samardzija, Marmol, Wood, Gaudin, Cotts. That’s a top notch bullpen.

by dr stabbingworth on Oct 8, 2008 9:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No offense.

But you’re crazy.

The guy pitched great this year. He is willing to stay for less than for just about any team. For 5/50? That’s Marquis money. You keep him.

Even if by the end he’s at the bottom of the rotation, you stay with him.

The picks?! How far back do you want to go? We stunk it up in the playoffs, but the key is to keep getting there and you keep having a chance. Look at the Cardinals, Red Sox, even the Braves. This team did reasonably well. Just needs a bit of a tweak.

by nickler on Oct 8, 2008 9:14 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe 5/50 is a good contract if

you get 4+ years out of him. If he spends most of that time on the DL it’s an albatross.

But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night

by N Oakley on Oct 8, 2008 9:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This won't happen.

They’ll both be signed. But even if you did offer them both arbitration, they’d both accept, so the draft pick idea wouldn’t work anyway.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 9:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

No way either of them accepts arbitration.

Both of them can get more money and years in free agency than they could in arbitration hearings (especially since arbiters can only award one-year contracts).

by cwyers on Oct 8, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

However...

… if they want to stay, they accept arbitration and then Hendry negotiates longer-term deals with them. That’s been his MO for several years.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or they could decline arbitration and still negotiate a longer-term deal.

The deadline for accepting arbitration for a free agent is December 7th, and unlike before a player that declines arbitration can still negotiate with his former team.

I think you’re confusing what goes on with non-FA arbitration-eligible players (like Zambrano) with the proceedures for offering arbitration to FA-eligible players. There’s no reason for Wood and Dempster to accept arbitration.

by cwyers on Oct 8, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see what you mean.

Still, I think both will sign and staywith long-term deals.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's going to be real...

..interesting what Dempster will fetch on the open market. He has had one year as a successful starter (not counting years back), his arm problems seem to be behind him, but I also think he cost himself some money with his playoff performance.

I know it was only one game, but I don’t think it will go unnoticed.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A pitching-startved team like the Yankees would take a flyer. He would

be relatively cheap compared to some of their players.

"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris

by willie mays hayes' gloves on Oct 8, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll bet the Cubs could get the Yankees to take the rest of Jason Marquis' contract.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 8, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

They'd take Marquis, too, in that deal, right?

We’d want to be sure of that.

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Oct 8, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no shot

Marquis could survive in the AL East…. i’m sorry but there’s no chance and I don’t think the Yankees would take him.

Usually when the Yankees go after re-treads its guys who have either been very good in the NL or have pitched in the AL before. It’s not guys who have been mediocre in the NL, those guys tend to get pounded in the AL, especially in the AL East

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 8, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Needed

Guy’s the Yankees Do Not need pitching . It has benn stated by a Yankee Scout that We have more damm pitching in this organization than you can shake a stick at, They Just need these youngster to develope.

by NYCUB FAN on Oct 8, 2008 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He must be.

That kind of thinking goes a long way toward explaining why the Yankees are watching the playoffs on TV this year.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 9, 2008 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...

…it would be a bad move for them to accept arbitration, because it significantly limits their negotatiing power with Hendry. In the end, if they really want to be here they will be, as long as Hendry can give them a relatively fair deal.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 8, 2008 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure...

But if this played out wouldn’t we have to give the Brewers a draft pick for Sabathia? Since we’d be somewhere in the 20’s its not protected.

Excuse my ignorance, I’m not 100% sure how that works…so I could be way off base.

by jbertram on Oct 8, 2008 9:57 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

PS

In the world of baseball in 2008 I know its unlikely for a player to stay with a team his entire career, but if there is one person I never want to see anywhere else its Woody. I think he brings a level of class and leadership that we desperately need to hang onto, and add to.

by jbertram on Oct 8, 2008 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am inclined to let Dempster and Wood walk away unless...

— Dempster is willing to take a 3 year maximum contract. Which in this market he would be a fool to do so. Problem is I am not sold at any level of Dempster to perform anywhere close to his career year in 2008. Signing him to big money has Jeff Suppan written all over it.

— Wood’s arm is a mess and a big medical risk. The odds are long that he will be able to stay as healthy and relatively effective going forward as he did in 2008. Anything more than a two year incentive laden deal is exceptionally foolish.

"What pressure should I have on me? There's no pressure on me." -- Lou Piniella (10/3/08)

by MDBNIU on Oct 8, 2008 12:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BTW i really like both of them as people and as players...

I respect what they do in the clubhouse but our farm system is seriously in peril. I dont think there is a chance either of them accepts which would help restock the farm…

"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"

by fischisgod on Oct 8, 2008 12:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

BTW

Bob Howry is a type B reliever.. But we cant afford to offer him arbritration.. HE would accept..

"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"

by fischisgod on Oct 8, 2008 12:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Not necesarilly,

teams have gotten players to agree to not accept arbitration (under the table, of course).

Since Howry is a type B free agent, it would not hurt his chances in free agency. The team signing him would not forfeit a pick; the Cubs would only get a supplemental pick.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Oct 8, 2008 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree on Demps, don't agree on Kerry

Kerry has shown a willingness in the past to sign “below-market” deals to stay in Chicago.

He’s made it known that Chicago is now his home and he and his wife love it, etc etc. I almost think you can go year to year with Kerry and he’d be willing to sign. I don’t think we will do that because there’s loyalty on our end as well, but I don’t think you’ll have to give Kerry the 4/36 or whatever massive contract a player of his caliber would typically demand

Demp is another story altogether. Give me the draft picks everyday and twice on Sunday. I don’t believe this season was anything close to what we can expect going forward. I also think a “Lilly” comparison is on the high end of our expectations. IF we’re going to spend that money why not spend it on a more proven commodity like a Derrek Lowe? Even in that scenario we lose picks for Lowe, but gain them for Dempster and since one of them would be a supplemental we basically gain a pick

it works like this: we get 1st or 2nd rd + supplemental for losing Demp
we give 1st rd pick for signing Lowe

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 8, 2008 1:57 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

While I don't disagree on trying to stockpile draft choices,

especially with Tim Wilken making the selections, both Wood and Dempster are more likely to sign with an upper-echelon team if they don’t re-sign with the Cubs. They would have more value to the Mets or Yankees than the Royals or Mariners at this stage of their careers. Thus, they would be more likely to net 2nd round picks than 1st round picks.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Oct 8, 2008 3:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

you have that backwards

we’d get 1st rd picks from good teams

we’d get 2nd rd picks from bad teams

by DartmouthCubsFan on Oct 8, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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