The R word
by Clark Addison on Nov 10, 2008 9:35 AM CST
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PrintHow will the economic meltdown affect baseball and the Cubs?
We've already seen the effect on the sale of the team, with the billion dollar price tag a forgotten memory. What about season tickets? Will corporate bigwigs still shell out the big bucks? What about sponsorship?
In the depression baseball attendance tanked, despite the fact it was cheap entertainment. The price tag has risen exponentially. Auctions for premium seats aren't going to bring 2008 prices any more.
Fewer tickets may end up in the hands of scalpers, and that's a good thing.
What about the free agent market? With the specter of less income from ticket sales, advertising, and souvenir sales looming, how high are teams going to bid? And what will Joe, the ex plumber, think about supporting multi millionaires wearing home laundry with his unemployment check?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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the r word???
Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!
Recession
…It’s called the R-word because politicians treat it with more care than the F-word. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in 2009.
The Cubs are like...
…BMW: they’re basically recession proof as a brand. There are a lot of high-end consumers in our favor. I mean, I’ve been in a personal ticket-buying recession with regard to attending live games for about 4 years—-since the ’03 phenomenon. So even if lessened demand lowered ticket prices, it would just bring consumers like me back into play. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in 2009.
No company is recession proof.
While the Cubs may be in a better position to sell tickets due to the large demand than other teams such as the Pirates, Royals, Padres, due to the product on the field and the popularity of the team, they will feel the effects of the recession in other ways.
For example, the Cubs lost 2 sponsors due to the bank consolidation alone, National City and WaMu. There will be sponsorship and advertising implications, at the very least.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 10, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
My answer was...
…a relative one: next to the other 30-odd MLB teams, the Cubs are basically recession proof. Sure, they’ll have sponsor changes, but someone will fill in the blank ad boards—-no doubt about it. – TL
[In 2008] Kila Ka’aihue had the best on-base percentage of any hitter in the minor leagues. - Joe Posnanski, 11/9/2008 ... Ergo, let's give him a shot at first base in KC in 2009.
I think you're underestimating the amount of revenue
a team generates due to to their sponsorship and advertising deals.
While they will always need to fill the advertising spots, the difference is the amount they will be able to charge.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 10, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
Negligible Effect On Cubs
Because the Cubs have had all this regular season success the last two seasons, I don’t see attendance dropping off at Wrigley Field. Yes, I think the “corporate” big wigs are still going to buy the tickets.
One has to remember the Cubs were bad the last time the economy was this poor back in the early 1980’s. The economy and the bad performance of the team led to poor attendance back then. In 1982, the Cubs “caught fire” going 42-39 in the second half of the season and “won” next to last place from the Mets. That was reason to celebrate. Things were that bad back then.
To sum up, winning makes the Cubs “economic down turn” proof.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
IMO...
…all professional sport will feel the effect of the economy at some point in time. With teams like the Cubs, the effect will not be immediate, but I do feel there will be some impact within a year or so.
A team like the Cubs will probably find enouph people to buy tickets, but they may be a little more fruggle in regards to spending a lot of money on merchandise and concessions. The biggest impact potential will be in regards to corporate sponsorships. As companies choose not to renew agreements (because of pressure to not spend in this area), other companies may indeed fill that vacancy, but the value of the sponsorhip will be driven down some.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
I do think the Cubs run the risk if they raise ticket prices too high...
… of turning some people off. Granted, there will probably be enough people to buy the tickets in 2009 due to pent up demand from the last two years — i.e. if some who did have tix the last two years decide they can’t afford them, there will be others in line.
But there is a limit to that, as you note.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
If they're raising the payroll, they will raise tickets.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 10, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Well,
I’d imagine that on the demand side, you’ll see a slowdown in ancillary purchases; jerseys, hats, and those sort of things. Also, probably a small downtick in single-game tickets sales, as some tourist curb their vacation plans in the summer.
On the supply side, I’d look for some tapering in free agent dollars, with a great deal more dialogue on structure and payment schedules.
The market will be a touch soft, but sports is such an emotional purchase, you’d have to see a much greater downturn — and some do think that’s possible in 2009 — before the impact would really be felt.
I have an idea that what the Cubs
do this offseason will have more of an affect than the economy. I call it the hype (not just hope) factor. What will turn that utter collapse over that 72+ hour span in early October and spawn a new beginning? The first significant data point will be that end Feb feeding frenzy when single game tickets go on sale. They do 600k that first day a million for the weekend, the Cubs pretty much won’t be affected.
Sweet Lou for Mayor in '11.
Yep.
In fact, there were somewhat fewer tickets sold on the first day in 2008 than in 2007 — this, I suspect, was due to the price increases. Depending on the price increases for ’09, they may find a similar effect.
I’d also be curious to find out whether there have been any season ticket cancellations this offseason. Last year there were 4 (that’s right, FOUR). Three season ticket holders died, one moved to Europe.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Do you think the 9 game plans they sold last year
may have also led to people buying tickets earlier?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 10, 2008 11:10 PM CST up reply actions
Yes.
The schedule last year — so many April and May games — forced the Cubs to try to get creative to sell more tickets to those games. It worked. They may try something like that again.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Concessions and such more than tickets
I agree with those that say this will affect concession and merchandise sales more than tickets at least at first.
People will buy less stuff at the ballpark but still go.
Thngs of worth are worth fighting for regardless of the odds.
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