BP's Cubs top 11 prospects

by cubfan2201 on Nov 11, 2008 12:36 PM CST Comment 43 comments

Five-Star Prospects
1. Josh Vitters, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
3. Jose Ceda, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Hak-Ju Lee, SS
5. Andrew Cashner, RHP
6. Tyler Colvin, OF
7. Dae-Eun Rhee, LHP
8. Ryan Flaherty,
Two-Star Prospects
9. Welington Castillo, C
10. Donald Veal, LHP
11. Micah Hoffpauir, 1B

The full article is only for subscribers but the list can be seen by everyone so that is all I will post.

Summary: Yup, that's about it. The Cubs are not a team based on youth; even Soto turns 26 in January. They are also not a team in need of a youth movement, and that's a good thing, because this is a weak system in which finding any future Cub stars requires quite a bit of dreaming.

Not a lot of talent there especially if Vitters gets traded for Peavy. I'm not really a fan of Samardzjia and I see him as bullpen material for the future. Their summary of saying the Cubs don't need a deep system at this point is right on but I can't help but wonder what will happen as everyone ages.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, editor-in-chief (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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yeech

Seeing it in black and white makes it all the more bleak. 2 year window…if it doesn’t happen we’ll be the next “Braves”.

by StevenABQ on Nov 11, 2008 12:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeech is right...

An 19 year old kid in Josh Vitters who has yet to play low A ball is our top prospect. An aged journeyman in Micah Hoffpauir makes the list. And the ubitiquous inclusion of Donald Friggin Veal too.

McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!

by MDBNIU on Nov 11, 2008 1:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I can buy it

I personally didn’t consider Lee Hak-ju because I didn’t know enough, outside of the scouting reports. A bit surprised someone like KG likes him so much, but sure, I can buy it. I also didn’t have Rhee, because I dropped him because of injury.

Fairly similar to what I put up earlier in my tentative top 20. I think Castillo is a bit low, but Goldstein does acknowledge that you can flip the 4-11 order around and it’d be fine. I think Jovan Rosa should’ve made the list, as he has the power potential for first (whether or not it develops is another question). He does have Jay Jackson in his sleepers, while I had Jackson as a top 10 guy, but that’s nibbling.

I can even buy someone putting Veal that high, but the late season reports were a bit disconcerting in regards to his loss of velocity. I believe his other two just missed were Cerda/Watkins, with Lake as a sleeper. I like all three, although personally, I’d rather, if taking a youngster, take Starlin Castro.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 1:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow Lee is three stars?

Thats pretty impressive for getting a H.S. kid out of Korea, but pretty sad to see Colvin as only three stars for a first round pick….really starting to question that pick…..we couldve had Joba!

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 1:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting note on Lee

KG says

One international scout not with the Cubs insists that if Lee was American, he would have been a top 20 pick in the draft, and would rank only behind the first overall pick, Tim Beckham, among high school shortstops. He’s a long, loose, and fluid athlete with a quick, direct swing and a body that projects for possibly average power down the road. He has plenty of defensive skills, beginning with good instincts and an above-average arm, and his plus-plus speed provides a great deal of range while also making him dangerous on the basepaths.

Now, when someone says, “That’s just the Cubs overhyping their guys, note the beginning of that quote "scout not with the Cubs insists.”

On the radio interview with Fleita added to that article, we heard, “His swing is more the style of swing we’re looking for, as opposed to the Asian-style swing.”

The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Asian-style swing would be the

running up in the batters’ box and picking up the back foot and screwing your right (front) foot into the ground with a ferocious effort?

Lou would appreciate that.

Tommie Agee was out.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good, and it could be good again." TM

by Weeghman Park on Nov 11, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I cant wait to see this kid play...

Complete side note though….did anyone read about these two Indian kids who are being converted from Cricket bowlers into pitchers? one of them can already hit 90

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't heard about them but it makes sense

those guys should have great baseball skills if they are re-channeled (and I’m not being sarcastic a la Annie Savoy Bull Durham etc)

Tommie Agee was out.
"This field, this game, is a part of our past. It reminds us of all that was once good, and it could be good again." TM

by Weeghman Park on Nov 11, 2008 4:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Link

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3686992

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Colvin pick

was highly questionable even at the time of the draft. Many organizations had him at more of a third round talent than a first round talent and it appears that they were right.

by dakoose on Nov 11, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

If you remember the late rumors, suggestions were that Colvin was a lock to go first round. Now, did we take him higher than he was expected to go on draft day? Probably. But it wasn’t be the 1st to 3rd round gap you are suggesting. Late rumors said several teams were looking at him as a late first, with the White Sox the one team I clearly remember.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thats not what I read.

I don’t have any of the links and can’t prove an of this, but i remember reading lots of experts who were very surprised by Colvin going that early.

by dakoose on Nov 11, 2008 3:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you both are correct...

I believe there WAS some backlash toward the pick at the time the pick was made. However, I believe that one of the main guys behind the “he should’ve been a third rounder” stuff later admitted that his information was a bit outdated, and that late-first round was probably appropriate.

Regardless, it remains to be seen what he’ll become. I’m pretty sure the majority of first-round picks don’t make it big, so it’s not like he’d be a huge bust if he topped out at AAA. Hopefully he doesn’t top out at AAA or AAAA player, although that’s certainly a realistic possibility.

by SouthernCub on Nov 11, 2008 3:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You are right

the whole “He was a third-rounder” stuff came from Baseball America’s draft preview issue, which, because of publication lead time, was done almost six weeks before the draft. Between then and the draft, he started moving up draft boards. But since what most fans know about the draft comes from that BA draft issue, they didn’t know that. And the “He’s a third-rounder” got repeated endlessly around the blogosphere until everyone thought it was an established fact. But it wasn’t true.

Had the Cubs not taken Colvin, he would have gone later in the first round. He was a bit of a reach, but more of one like 7-10 picks of a reach, not two whole rounds.

Still, the pick doesn’t look that great right now, but the fact that Colvin just underwent TJ surgery indicates that maybe he was playing hurt all season and his 2007 season was more indicative of his abilities. But the bottom line is that the jury is still out on him. He may be a bust, but it’s too soon to tell.

by Josh77 on Nov 12, 2008 8:15 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs

Rec'd

Good to hear from you, Josh.

by DGU on Nov 12, 2008 8:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

same here, I heard it was a bit of a reach

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BP radio interview with Fleita also says

“Cashner on fast track.” – gives impression that they’re not expecting Cashner to be a starter, but they’ll give him a chance to develop another pitch.

On Veal – notes that lefties seem to take longer to develop and mentions a lot of personal life adversity, speaks of possibility of him being a LH reliever.

On Rhee – “work ethic off the charts”

Question “Who’s the diamond in the rough?” Answer: Mitch Atkins; Esmailin Caridad

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 2:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

re:

My biggest concern with Veal is the reported drop in velo late in the year. There were reports that he was only running it in the high 80’s. The inconsistency doesn’t bother me as much … power lefties take time. But if he’s not a power lefty … then that’s a big ?.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Any reports on his velo

in the AFL?

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i think

I saw something that said low-90’s. I actually haven’t checked in awhile.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was surprised Adkins was not listed

All the guy does is win. I don’t expect him to be a 1 or 2 starter but the guy can be a solid 3 through 5 man in a rotation.

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Nov 11, 2008 3:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

sorry Atkins

"Have You heard of the Boom on Mizar 5?"

by Grockcubs on Nov 11, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Atkins

Average stuff. tops out low 90’s. mid-end of the rotation types, while valuable in real life, don’t get much credit on prospect lists. I think I had him in the teens as well. prospect lists are often judged on perceived value, which is often different from real value. I think Atkins can make the bigs in some role (nice 3 pitch arsenal), but I agree with KG on that one.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds a little like Andy Sonenstine with the Rays

and all he’s done is win, in the minor and the majors.

Hey, it's a new century!

by cowsarecool220 on Nov 11, 2008 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

For every Sonnanstine there are 10 that don't make it.

At least thats the conventional wisdom among all scouting-type publications. A lot of these types of pitchers end up as spot starters or long relievers. Guys like Sonnanstine aren’t that common. I assume the reason is that they have to be absolutely perfect all of the time in order to succeed. Sonnanstine has unreal control and command and thats what makes him what he is. Even then he might be pushed out by the young arms the Rays have on the rise.

by dakoose on Nov 12, 2008 12:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

he's probably got one more year

Before he’s really threatened. I think Price nabs a spot next year at Edwin Jackson’s loss. Jackson may be dealt this offseason, although more than likely, they use him to extend the pen. After that comes Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. A lot of unknowns, but that’s probably when he might need to worry.

The scary part is that decent prospects, guys like Jeff Niemann/Mitch Talbot, are relatively useless to them as starters. Those two could be on top 5 pitching prospect lists for many clubs.

by toonsterwu on Nov 12, 2008 12:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Jackson...

I remember reading that this guy progressed much faster than expected and he’s not considered even a two-star prospect?

Derrick Rose-2009 ROTY Tyrus Thomas-2009 MIP...hope I'm at least half right

by CHCOWNTHECENTRAL on Nov 11, 2008 3:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

He'll fly under the radar

To be fair, KG had him listed as one of three that missed the cut.

I’m bullish on Jackson. 2 fastballs, runs in the low-mid 90’s, plus slider, solid curve, developing change (off the top, might’ve flipped the strength of the curve and change around). Loose arm, which is a positive from mechanics to health. Raw to pitching. Some suggest that he might be able to inch his velo up to a consistent mid-90’s.

I think it’s a matter of consistency, and the development of the changeup would help. He might be a guy a year or two down the line that we look at as having potential front of the rotation ability. As of now, some more work to do.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tim Wilken hasn't exactly lit the world on fire so far

I know, I know. It’s early. But still. I’m scratching my head trying to figure out his wondrous impact so far.

by MDBNIU on Nov 11, 2008 3:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, no Vernon Wells or Alex Rios for the Cubs yet

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We've already seen part of the impact

given that the Cubs don’t get Harden without Donaldson.

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 3:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant a direct on field impact

cradle to wrigley, so to speak

Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.

by bren on Nov 11, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's hardly realistic...

As Wilken has only been here for 3 years. Very few players would be expected to make an on-field impact in such a short time. And in fact, we’ve had one: Jeff Samardzija.

But I don’t think that was what MDBNIU meant. I think he meant more along the lines of a lack of “four-star”and “five-star” players drafted so far by Wilken.

by SouthernCub on Nov 11, 2008 3:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And yet, Samardzija is a 4-star player this year

after being a 2-star player last year. We’ll see how these guys develop. There are some things to look at and like and some things to wonder about. We’ll see.

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think it's fair to judge Wilken yet either...

He’s had only one draft in which we should be able to begin to glean ANY meaningful information (2006). And even that’s really early. As you note, prospect ratings can jump wildly from year to year. This can be seen by the emergence of Soto and Samardzija, the emergence and then slight fade of Colvin, etc.

That said, I think everyone in this thread has acknowledged that it’s still really early in the Wilken regime. I’d at least wait two more years on the 2006 class, and even then that’d have only given Wilken one class from which to examine.

by SouthernCub on Nov 11, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

His first draft was limited by the number of picks. After that, he hasn’t done bad, just hasn’t hit yet. That said, the last two drafts have had specific focuses. in 2007, we focused on filling positional gaps. in 08, we focused on filling pitching gaps. Part of me thinks that Wilken was trying to address holes in the system. I could be off on that, but with 3 drafts in, I’ll be very curious about the 09 draft in part because some of the holes in our system should be filled as these past three drafts work their way up. We also have improved our work abroad, IMO.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

work abroad

The real good news in this KG piece is the solid info on Hak-Ju Lee, which is very exciting – a SS who may stick at SS! This signing has gotten very little press, but note he outranks our #1 draft pick from last year.

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 4:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

re:

The Lee Hak-ju signing did get some solid press during the season, but too few people pay attention to abroad signings.

The exciting thing about the Lee signing is that we now have two potential blue chip shortstops in Castro/Lee. While the depth charts at the upper levels are still a bit thin, we are slowly seeing the depth charts in the lower levels filled, which is a positive sign.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I found this on Lee

from East Windup Chronicle:

One of the people who scouted him also scouted Derek Jeter in high school and says Lee has better tools at his age than Jeter did back in the early 90s.

I’ll be curious to see if KG will answer any questions about the two new signings from Korea in his chat – do you have any info on them (Ha Jae-hoon and Jung Soo-min)?

by DGU on Nov 11, 2008 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Re

I only know what’s online, which I think a lot of people cribbed from Aaron Shinsano (East Windup Chronicle). Btw, Shinsano was hired to scout for the Cubs when we expanded our abroad stuff.

I don’t claim to know anything about them, so here’s Aaron’s link

http://eastwindupchronicle.com/couple-of-new-korean-cubs/

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Strange that Hoffpauir is included on this list...

At age 28, he stretches the definition of the term “prospect.”

by SouthernCub on Nov 11, 2008 3:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

re:

I think it’s a case of

a) Weakness in our system
b) “readiness”
c) acknowledgement that the Micah Hoffpauir right now isn’t the one that hit AAA 3 years ago.

I know I didn’t want to put Micah in my own list, but after awhile, it’s sort of hard to put other names in there.

by toonsterwu on Nov 11, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He can hit

on the major league level. He shown that. Not enough to play first base for a contending team.

I keep coming back to a Ross Gload comp on Hoffpauir. I know nobody gets excited about Ross Gload, but he had a couple of productive major league seasons and he’s a good bat off the bench. And actually, Hoffpauir has better power than Gload.

by Josh77 on Nov 12, 2008 8:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs