Randy Johnson Revisited.
by dakoose on Nov 14, 2008 10:52 AM CST
Email
PrintIn an article posted on MLBTR it is being reported that after the Diamondbacks offered Randy Johnson 2-3 million for one year(thats downright insulting) he is looking to find a new team. That is not news. What is news is that he would be satisfied with 8 million, maybe even less. That is very little money and perhaps could end up being the most efficient/valuable contract doled out this off-season. The link for this article is:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/dodgers-interes.html
Now before anybody jumps on me for posting about an aged player like Johnson or posting so soon after a different Johnson post let me make a real case for Randy on a point by point basis addressing some of the doubts I have seen expressed about the future hall-of-famer.
- He is too old/injury prone. Yes he is old, but take a look at his innings totals from the last five years. 245.2, 225.2, 205, 56.2, 184. Thats only one season in which he didn't log a significant amount of innings. Yes he is old, but he has been very durable throughout his career and he should be able to make at least 26-27 starts next season.
- His performance level. I'm going to throw some stats out here, starting with the basics and then hitting up some advanced ones and then the Bill James projection for 2009. 2008- 11-10, 30GS, 3.91 ERA, 173K, 44B, 3.93 K/BB. Those are some very,very good numbers. He finished the year with a FIP of 3.76, so he was a bit unlucky last year, posting a BABIP fifteen points lower than his career norm and a league average strand rate, which is below average for Randy. His batted ball stats are the same, and not only did he generate more swinging strikes but he generated more contact aton balls outside of the zone than he has in the last three or four years. His WPA/LI was .91, better than Ted Lilly's .84. Here's the real kicker: Bill James has projected the following line for 2009: 12-7, 3.40 ERA(!), 28 GS, 170 IP, 178 K, 41BB, 4.34 K/BB. That is front of the rotation stuff right there. Those are similar numbers to what Cole Hamels did in the regular season, minus a few innings pitched and starts. his record is also sure to be better than projected. Those numbers could make him the best per-start pitcher on the Cubs next year if we don't get Peavy.
- The bottom line is that signing this good a pitcher for one year at 7-8 million should be nothing short of a no-brainer. Even if he were to get injured he it's not as if his contract would hold back the Cubs at all. Consider that Jason Marquis is going to make more money next year despite not being anywhere close in terms of ability.
Assume that the Cubs bring in two starting pitchers next year to go along with the guaranteed core of Zambrano, Lilly, Harden. Throw in Jonhnson and one of Lowe/Peavy/Dempster/Sheets/Pettite/Wolf/Burnett or any of the other free agent starters and you got a beastly rotation. From a payroll perspective, Johnson shouldn't make too big of a dent on Hendry's offseason plan, as he let Wood walk for a cheaper option and is now rid of Howry's contract. i could be missing something here, so feel free to correct me.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
64 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I wish
someone would downright insult me with 2-3 million.
Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!
by cubsluver22 on Nov 14, 2008 10:56 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Problem is the Big Unit hates Wrigley Field
As mentioned, 6’10" Randy Johnson has to crouch down in the dugout, in the runway and in the lockerroom at Wrigley. Which obviously is a pain in the ass and very hard on a 45 year old with a cranky back. He won’t come here. But there should be plenty of teams interested in his services for one year. The Big Unit can still pitch and is on a mission to notch the 300 victory to his Hall of Fame career.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Good Point
Plus, he seems to only pitch well against the Cubs so it doesn’t really make sense. I’m just kidding, but not really.
Really?
I doubt dugout comfort has ever stopped anyone from signing with a team. Discomfort should not be that big of a deterrent. Plus, his line in Wrigley is off the charts good.
Go back and research his feelings for Wrigley...
He hates Wrigley. It is torture on his back. He once said the lockerroom at Wrigley is like a torture chamber for him and that he actually sometimes crawls to the showers so as not to have to be on his feet stooped over.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Perhaps thats just the visiting locker room?
Isn’t the home dugout nicer?
He will probably
be a dodger next year as they seem to need pitching and their on the west coast.
Dear Santa:: All I want for X-mas this year is an official 2009 Jake Peavy Cubs Jersey. Oh and a Beimel one too. I've been a real good guy for the most part!!!
by cubsluver22 on Nov 14, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
How bout...
you research it since it’s your argument.
Free Ronny Cedeno
by Kansas25 on Nov 14, 2008 11:52 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
RJ
will wind up with a west coast team, take it to the bank. If the Dodgers, Angels, Padres and D’Backs all take a pass, look for him to hang it up. BTW, the reports now are that the D’Backs offer was in the $5-6M range, not $2-3M.
By far, the most likely destination for Johnson is LA.
That's what I would guess too.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Not really a guess
The Unit has said as much himself. He asked the Yankees to trade him so that he could be closer to his family and he has a house in Dana Point, CA. He is pretty much in Roger Clemens territory where the family considerations trump everything else. Jessica has visions of Maddux having a change of heart and GM and RJ making up 2/5ths of the Dodgers 2009 rotation.
Randy Johnson is sticking around to notch victory # 300
He’s only 6 away. In addition to the California teams I could see the Seattle Mariners also being an option. The guy might be 45 but he can still pitch. Plus he only is interested in playing one more season so isn’t a big financial risk.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
The story line of
a return to Seattle is an intriguing one, but doesn’t work geographically. Seattle is 1200 miles from RJ’s home and the road trips are brutal. Johnson did not make all of the D’Backs road trips last season because flying is hard on his back.
One of the little controveries in Phoenix last year was when Johnson skipped a road trip when he wasn’t pitching, and instead he flew to NY for a Bruce Springsteen concert. Evidently, the back was feeling well enough for that trip.
Where did you see those reports?
I haven’t seen anything about 5-6 million.
It was reported
on the local news, said to have come from a source in the organization. There also seems to be some discrepancy over what Johnson made in 2008. Johnson’s people say $10M and Baseball Reference says $15M. The D-Backs put the number at $14M.
I think it's pretty apparent he's not coming here. I would think that the Cubs would be pretty
low on his list of potential teams. Enough of this. Let’s move on.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 11:37 AM CST reply actions
If I may make a suggestion -
we should move on to Koji Uehara.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Hey, it was one wild night in Tokyo.
Saki happens.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
That must have been one desperate woman.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
Hince the name......Johnson.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:20 PM CST up reply actions
Interesting Topic
Uehara will be 34 as the 2009 season begins and he had an unusual season in 2008. He experienced lower body pain, and he continued to pitch, and was not nearly as effective as he has been in the past. Eventually, the Giants sent him to the minors for rehab.
Upon his return to the big club, he pitched better, but never did show his usual mastery. He gives every indication of having entered the declining phase of his career and the Giants used him as a closer in 2007. He bounced between the rotation and the bullpen in 2008. He is now a free agent.
The Orioles are interested in him as a starter and the Mets and Angels are interested in him as a reliever.
Uehara was used as a closer to keep his innings totals down so he couldn't go to the States last year.
I’m assuming that if Keith Law, who’s doing his work by scouting, rates Uehara ahead of Sheets, then he has to be confident in Uehara’s health – which would be the biggest question for me. My assumption could be off.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Uehara - wasn't she the communications officer on the Enterprise?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:25 PM CST up reply actions
Nice.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
I think a decent argument can be made...
…for signing Johnson as a veteran-presence, back-of-the-rotation, insurance-policy starter. But, for all the reasons mentioned, I think the odds of him joining the Cubs are very, very, very low. I also have this sneaking suspicion (for which I have no concrete evidence) that he looks down on the Cubs and would never consider ending his career with the team. Oh, and I also think he looks like the renimated mummy of a Civil War solider killed at the Battle of Gettysburg.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Good stuff
Randy Johnson is a goony lookin’ son of a gun. All I know is that he is the most dominant pitcher I have ever seen in my years on this planet. I remember Steve Carlton in his prime and how filthy and nasty his stuff was. Well, the Big Unit exceeded what Carlton was able to do on the mound.
Pitchers like Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson is something you can tell your grandkids about someday.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
You bet they is.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
speaking from experience
There are some great pitchers on the dark side of the moon.
the lack of lights for night games helps quite a bit though.
-mk
---AC 00 00 00 - Believe
There is no dark side of the moon.
It’s all dark.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
zit all depends on what you definition of dark is. There's
dark and then there’s………dark.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
And I was trying to make a Pink Floyd reference.
I may have failed as well.
"I see I'm not the only one around here who can't hold his water." - Last words of the leaky pipe in the visiting team dugout, Dodger Stadium, October 4, 2008.
Randy at Wrigley?
Actually, if we had a hole to fill in the rotation, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give a one-year contract. If we lose Dempster, and don’t get anybody else, sure… give him a go. However, I too, really doubt he would want to join the Cubs. Money can speak volumes though…
I dunno. Go for it if we need a starter.
FWIW
It is being reported that the Yankees’ opening salvo in the CC chase will be on the order of 7 years at $140M+.
So much for reluctance to offer big money / long term deals to starting pitchers.
And so much for being concerned about the economy.
To bring this back on topic, CC is a great pitcher, no doubt about it. But, is he really worth that much more than an admittedly aging Big Unit? I wonder…
You ask that after he single-handedly pitched the brewers into the playoff?
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
He was lucky.
His BTYAPR was league average, at best. It just never caught up with him.
Free Ronny Cedeno
He got them there. When was the last time they were there? I don't know
if he’s worth $140M, but he’s pretty damned good.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 12:31 PM CST up reply actions
Zito
was huge in helping the As to get to the playoffs in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2006.
How’d that big contract work out?
I’m not saying Sabathia isn’t good…but is he that much better than say, Dempster? It’s not a question or ability, it is a question of proportion.
Ding, ding, ding !!!
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
The Yankees...
… have somewhere on the order of $90M coming off the books. They have been upfront about the fact that they have money and are going to spend it.
Yankees are going to make a lot of noise this offseason...a lot
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
The Yankees with $90M to play with gives me images
of my ex-wife running through the mall with a fistful of my credit cards.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 2:04 PM CST up reply actions
Sabathia...
… and one other #1/2 type of pitcher will be their opening salvo. Along with the 7 yrs/$140M they’re rumors to have offered Sabathia they likely will go after Lowe, Dempster or another starting pitcher.
AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia might be their one-two punch
I understand that Sabathia says he wants to play in California. But what happens when the Steinbrenner boys blow the doors off any off the Dodgers or Angels make, which I bet has strong possibility of happening?
And I would not rule out the Yankees getting very serious into the Mark Texiera bidding. Nick Swisher or no Nick Swisher.
McGrath: I got a good deal on those boys. The scouts said they showed a lot of promise.
Reggie Dunlop: They brought their f***in' TOYS with 'em!
McGrath: Well, I'd rather have em playin with their toys than playin with themselves.
Reggie Dunlop: They're too dumb to play with themselves. Boy, every piece of garbage that comes into the market and you gotta buy it!
Nick Swisher is going to hold up the Texiera signing. Yeah...and mosquitos can
hold up elephant stampedes.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 2:55 PM CST up reply actions
The union
I heard some interesting discussion on this on XM where they discussed that Sabathia likely wanted to pitch on the west coast but the union may step in and more or less force Sabathia to take top dollar. Sabathia apparently just bought/rented a palatial place in Malibu, but the union frowns upon players who give up dollars for their personal happiness.
Damned capitalists!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
its not that...
… its making players go somewhere because they want to drive up player salaries, asking them to forsake playing where they actually want to play.
My answer to this question is still no.
But how about this: since Johnson is undefeated vs. the Cubs in his career, why not sign him, pay him and tell him to stay home? At least that way, the Cubs wouldn’t lose to him again.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
By that logic, we should sign Adam Dunn right now!
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 14, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions
SHHH!
Not so loud! Jim Hendry might hear you!
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
Sign Jeff Blauser, I hear he KILLS the Cubs...Oh...wait...
Brian McRae's 5 o'clock shadow
by PurpleLineToWrigley on Nov 14, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions
Cubs on Johnson's "short list"
Acc. to this article from Paul Sullivan: link
Apparently the height of the Wrigley Field dugout is not a major concern. ; )
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
I was going to post that same thing myself
but this thread has been quiet for the last 12 hrs or so. I didn’t buy for a second that Randy would turn down a decent deal just because of his back.
Kudos to dakoose.
He saw it before any of the rest of us.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Cubs By The Numbers
Cubs By The Numbers is a history of the ballclub by uniform number, but the biographies help trace the history of our beloved team in a new way. For everyone who's a Cubs fan, anyone who ever wore the uniform is like family. Cubs By The Numbers reintroduces readers to some of their long-lost ancestors, even ones they think they already know.
Click here to order your copy, available now!
Recent Stories in Ticket Exchanges
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
- The Cardinals Hall of Fame can now be found at Bill Clinton’s library in Arkansas (Huh?)
- Will Bryce Harper start the season with the Nationals?
- Mitch Mustain puts football behind him, signs reported rookie deal with White Sox
- Robinson Cano and Denzel Washington face off in Jay Leno’s Yankees trivia contest
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
