SI.coms NL Central Hot Stove Preview
They cover all the divisions, though youd have to back track to the homepage I believe. But this first paragraph made me laugh/cringe.
What Do They Have?
There is right-handed power in the lineup, depth in the infield (especially with Ronny Cedeno qualified to start at shortstop somewhere for somebody), a surplus of thoroughly adequate fourth-starter types, a group of regulars a bit older than you might think at first blush (this winter, Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto is turning 26 and shortstop Ryan Theriot will be 29, for example), and a farm system thinner than a crème brulee's crust. They also have commitments to regret, most notably to outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, who has three years and $38 million to go on a contract weighted down by a no-trade clause, making the chances that he'll be dealt relatively remote.
While this provides a glimmer of hope:
What Are They Likely To Do?
Like it or loathe it, acquiring reliever Kevin Gregg is a win-now move that was also intended to trim salary commitments years into the future -- which is another suggestion that they were shifting things around to afford a big-ticket player, Dempster. That won't be the end of their activities this winter. Packaging pitchers likeJason Marquis, Chad Gaudin, Sean Marshall and/orRich Hill might be poorly timed in terms of their trade value, but with pitching priced as sky-high as ever, plausible rotation regulars who are under contractual control for a couple of seasons to come (like those last three) should have plenty of attractiveness for other teams, however spotty their track records might be. They will deal from their pitching depth as well as that in the infield, either to acquire balance in the lineup and/or to shore up the outfield should they decide against bringing back Jim Edmonds to man center-field.
This three way trade possibility was intriguing:
To address the lineup balance issue and keep costs under control, pulling the Rangers into a three-way deal that sends Texas a couple of hurlers from the starting pitcher surplus, sends a third party someone from among the Rangers' quartet of catching prospects and brings the Cubs a quality lefty bat for center or right makes better sense than signing one of the old outfielders knocking around on the market.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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Interesting...
What Should They Do?
Because of so many no-trade clauses (not just Fukudome, but also with declining Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano), there are only a few spots where they can really leverage their depth and add value. That’s part of the reason why the Brian Roberts trade rumors seem to simmer endlessly — incumbent Mark DeRosa is movable, both around the diamond and in a deal out of town. But this isn’t an organization gifted with a ton of low-level talent on the rise, so a swap to get the switch-hitting Roberts’ last year under contract is going to cost the Cubs Cedeno plus pitching.
We should use some of our valuable trade chips to get one year of Brian Roberts just because we have “depth” at 2B and P??? I don’t follow her logic. Exactly how will the Cubs be helped by overpaying for a guy who is likely to decrease our 2B OPS next season when we already have excess depth at the position? The very reason that DeRo has trade value is because he is productive. Which, of course, is the exact reason why we shouldn’t waste some of our precious trade chips to downgrade from him when the more pressing need (at least in Lou’s eyes) is a LHB for the middle of the order.
By her logic, we should trade Ted Lilly because he is very tradable and we have several other good starting pitchers. Perhaps we could trade him for Julio Lugo to start building our SS inventory? Perhaps we could trade Geo to the Tigers for Brandon Inge because we have Koyie Hill and Henry Blanco to provide catching depth and a team can never have enough utility guys? And we certainly have a boatload of RH RPs, so we can send Carlos Marmol to the Angels for Maicer Izturis for additional SS depth. Hello, fourth place…
And exactly how closely is she following baseball if she thinks that Rich Hill represents “pitching depth” that has “trade value” and that Ronny CedeƱo is “qualified to start at shortstop somewhere for somebody”?
When a team doesn’t have much in the minor leagues, it makes more sense to sign a FA, not less. Giving away the few good prospects a team has is not the way to re-build a farm system.
Someone please wake me up when this is over…
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 19, 2008 9:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
The trade off b/t Roberts and DeRo is beyond OPS
Maybe not beyond, but the value lies in his switch hitting, base stealing and I would imagine at least equal OPB, and if you can get Roberts while shifting DeRo to RF, then its win win win.
She did say hes moveable around the diamond as well, so she wasnt necessarily suggesting that DeRosa would be involved.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 19, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how to weigh the total value...
First of all, assuming that Roberts is even available, he would probably cost at least Marshall, Gaudin/Wuertz, and Vitters. There are too many teams that want him to think that he will come on the cheap. Is the increase in SBs for one season at the top of the order worth that?
Second, a LHB at the top of the order isn’t nearly as important as a LHB in the middle of the order. How many managers burn their LOOGY’s for leadoff men? They burn them (often unsuccessfully) on the Chase Utleys of the world. As long as a leadoff man gets on, it doesn’t matter which side of the plate he does it from.
Third, their OBPs for the last two years are almost identical. (.371, .376 for DeRo, .377, .378 for Roberts). Roberts has 90 SB/17 CS over those two years, but DeRo has 45 more RBIs in 253 fewer PAs. According to B-R, Roberts was worth 1.7 BtWins last season, DeRo was worth 1.5. Roberts is two years younger, but he is more reliant on speed, the first tool to diminish. Roberts is better defensively at 2B, though it isn’t really fair to judge DeRo strictly as a 2B when he is expected to constantly change positions. They are both FAs after 2009. Overall, they are about equal in production, just from different parts of the order. (Oddly, Roberts scored only four more runs than DeRo last year despite batting leadoff and having 111 more PAs.)
Fourth, moving DeRo to RF negates the ability to get a run-producing LHB for RF, and Lou doesn’t seem interested in moving DeRo to SS. I would also wonder whether the Cubs could afford both Roberts ($8M) and DeRo ($5.5M) in the MI; budget is the reason they are kicking the tires on Mark Teahan.
The $64,000 question is: how much is it worth in prospects to essentially move your 2B production from the middle of the order to the leadoff spot? As Colin is fond of pointing out, it is much cheaper to go from mediocre to good than to go from good to great; this is basically a lateral move.
The Cubs would probably trade DeRo if they did get Roberts for the following reasons:
1. They can’t afford both.
2. They need to get some value (in prospects) for DeRo since they would be giving up so many to get Roberts.
3. They know that DeRo hates playing OF and would be unhappy playing there regularly.
4. They need the spot for a LHB, and they can’t really trade anyone else (e.g., Lee) to make room elsewhere on the diamond.
Roberts would also spell the end of LBR as we know him since he was dependent on DeRo’s versatility for his playing time. Lou wouldn’t dream of asking Roberts to do the same thing.
Back to the original question: is the trade-off worth it?
(Personally, I would rather see DeRo traded than sentenced to a year in RF. He doesn’t deserve to be screwed like that in a contract year after the season he had in 2008.)
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 19, 2008 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
They do love their complicated trade scenarios...
Texas has always struck me as a natural trading partner, but why wouldn’t a team looking for a left-handed bat just deal directly with the Rangers for David Murphy?
by Damen Jackson on Nov 19, 2008 10:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
My sentiments exactly.
He probably isn’t ready for the #5 slot in 2009, but he could probably handle #6 and he can play CF — leaving Dome in RF.
Who would you be willing to give up to get him?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 19, 2008 10:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I really haven't scouted him closely enough to say...
and haven’t really followed the Rangers since DeRosa played there, so I hazard to say right now.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 19, 2008 11:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that Sean Marshall would be too much,
Michael Wuertz too little.
They usually have RPs and are looking for SPs. Perhaps Murphy and a prospect or RP for Marshall?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 19, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If I had to give an answer right now...
I’d say that Marshall straight up sounded about right.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 19, 2008 11:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What do you guys think is going to happen
when Lou finds that his lefty 4/5 batter isn’t suited to bat 4/5 right off the bat? Didn’t we watch that same story last year twice?
There’s no point bringing in a Murphy or a Teahen or Luke Scott if the poor guy is going to be the point of rage for a manager who still hasn’t gotten the thing he is placing all the blame for his 0-6 record on.
There are only a few answers here and if Dunn/Abreu/Ibanez are too expensive, then we’re down to one obvious answer.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 20, 2008 12:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My solution would be even simpler:
Re-sign Daryle Ward. He’s only rated as a -3 COF (Sori is a -2, so is Hoff; Griffey is -15; DeRo is a +1), he hits LH, he can bat clean-up, he has a good eye at the plate, and he’ll work cheap.
Jacque Jones is available, I’m sure; Randy Winn probably is too.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 20, 2008 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That ship has sailed,
sailed, sailed. And the chance of Ward roaming the outfield with regularity anywhere is slim; mostly because this will be the only time you hear his name and slim in the same sentence.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 20, 2008 12:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh Lord...
Get back on your meds.
Seriously though, Fukudome wasn’t an answer at the five spot last year. I believe my exact quote at the time was “It. Won’t. Last.” He really was woefully miscast, and even Lou knew it. In his mind though, he had to for lineup balance.
I suspect that David Murphy is a bit more prototypical — not that I’ve advocating any deals, so much as commenting on crazy baseball three-ways in general — and would be a better fit.
However, again, I haven’t followed the Rangers - past a few MIllwood starts - in a few years now.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 20, 2008 12:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure, he's unrealistic
but isn’t he what Lou really wants? Honestly, we have to find a 4/5 hitter who can plausibly hit in front of, at least, Geovany Soto, and probably 2 out of 3 of Lee, Soriano, and Ramirez if Soriano is moved down in the order.
This quest will never end.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 20, 2008 1:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Rangers have a surplus of catchers
I think thats why she included them, they would be using one of them in that scenario
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 19, 2008 11:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Three-way trade scenarios...
as a practice…well, suck.
You get done what you want with a trade partner, and move on down the needs list. You start adding front-office people, and 4-8 players going back and forth across the country, and most deals quickly fall apart.
by Damen Jackson on Nov 19, 2008 11:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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