UPDATED "Dempster's Return to Cubs is No Longer a Given"
The Cubs are willing to give Ryan Dempster a four-year contract, major-league sources say, a decision that should put them in good position to retain the free-agent right-hander.
The two sides obviously need to reach agreement on a dollar figure, but the Cubs rarely are accused of low-balling players, and Dempster enjoys a strong relationship with general manager Jim Hendry.
Hendry may not be playing this one with his head alone, 4 years for a pitcher, in and of itself, isnt such a bad thing, but as we've all discussed by now, its a risk with a pticher Dempsters age/career stats/and coming off a career year.
So we'll see, word is the Braves might interested as well.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8748676/Dempster-plans-to-test-open-market
Doesnt seem like anyone posted this yet, though Im sure many have heard about it already, but there it is, courtesy of Ken Rosenthal via Foxsports.com
Dempster, 31, plans to test the open market, major-league sources say. He filed for free agency on Friday, and does not intend to sign with the Cubs before their exclusive negotiating period with him expires on Nov. 13.
The prevailing assumption in baseball is that the Cubs will re-sign Dempster, a right-hander who went 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA last season while starting full-time for the first time since 2002.
Dempster's return, however, no longer is a given.
While the Cubs remain interested in retaining Dempster, an 11-year veteran, the pitcher first will entertain bids from other clubs. He conceivably could receive four-year offers on the open market, an important consideration if the Cubs only are willing to give him three.
Rosenthal continues to the inevitable Jake Peavy discussion, speculating the Cubs would get more serious in their offers to the Padres if Dempster signs elsewhere.
He speculates all the Big Boys (NYs, Boston and LA's) to chase after Demp, who has proven he can handle big city pressure (his words).
This is a toughy, he was HUGE for the team this year, but his huge year was also a HUGE anomaly given his career stats.
So put on your Hendry pants, what would you do?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.
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149 comments
Comments
So put on your Hendry pants, what would you do?
put on a belt
by Glacier on Nov 2, 2008 9:57 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Oh well.
Maybe I’m the only one here who believes this, but I highly doubt that Dempster will produce the incredible year he had in 2008. I say let him go, and try to snatch one of the three-headed monster in Sabathia, Burnett, and Peavy.
Not Been Sheets, though.
by NittanyCub on Nov 2, 2008 9:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
On the other hand...
Peavy could fail when going from Petco to Wrigley
Sabathia has like 120,000 miles on him
Burnett has his own injury history
All will want much more than Dempster.
The worst beer I had was pretty good.
by Worf on Nov 2, 2008 10:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Well,
Peavy has better, and more numerous, pitches than Dempster
Sabathia is younger, better-framed(almost 50 pounds heavier) for heavy innings, and no serious issues of injuries in comparison Dempster(TJS).
Burnett is about the same as Dempster, I guess; he might be cheaper than Dempster, though.
by NittanyCub on Nov 2, 2008 10:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett had a hell of a year...
His history is very alarming though
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 2, 2008 10:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Offer him arbritration and get the draft picks
rebuild the farm
"I played with one of the best pitchers in history, Greg Maddux," Zambrano said"
by fischisgod on Nov 2, 2008 10:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
If losing Dempster gets us Peavy, I can't wait to lose.
I understand why Rosenthal is suggesting the Cubs would be more serious about getting Peavy if they lost Dempster, but honestly, that’s just nonsense. I’m sure the Cubs are exploring all angles. If they can’t find an angle, they can’t find an angle. If we lose Dempster, Jim Hendry isn’t suddenly going to say, “Oh, I forgot we had that extra pitching prospect stashed away in the Hawaiian Leagues to put into an offer.” If we can get Peavy, we’ll get him whether Dempster walks or not.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 2, 2008 10:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Unless Hendry's signing Dempster to trade for Peavy.
I joke because I care.
by NittanyCub on Nov 2, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Its plausible if Peavy sticks to his list of teams...
And the teams ahead of us refuse to give up their most coveted prospects, like we’re seeing with the Braves and the Padres remain adamant in their desire to get something for Peavy.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 2, 2008 10:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...
…but who are they going to trade for Peavy? They ain’t exactly loaded with young talent to throw the Pads way.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 2, 2008 11:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats what Im saying...
IF and its a big if, that situation I described plays out where Peavy limits SD options and the other 4 teams he listed dont part with their blue chippers making the Cubs the defacto favorite, then we might have a chance.
Sean Marshall would do very well in that spacious park, plus hes a lefty, if they trade Greene, they could use Cedeno as a 2 year stop gap until their own prospects come through, they could take a flier on Pie, Veal, Ceda, Atkins, Colvin whomever.
Im not so foolish to believe we could get him and Gonzales, but like I said Peavy would have to stick to his list and the Cubs would have to get lucky….it all depends on how serious they are about dealing him and how serious he is about his approved destinations and how serious the Braves are about excluding their prospects.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 3, 2008 7:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the only chance
would be a 3 team trade.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 8:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, the odds of getting Peavy
require that the Padres really, really like a few (not just one) of our post-prospects, Fontenot, Theriot, Cedeno, Marshall, and Pie. Including Theriot in the deal would give the Padres some cover in the press, but w/o Theriot, you pile all those guys together plus something else and the Pads will get skewered for making that trade. That’s why it almost has to be a three-way deal.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What if Harden was included with a package of
Marshall and either Fontenot or Pie?
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Nov 3, 2008 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What do the Padres want with Harden?
If they wanted an ace pitcher for next season, they could just keep Peavy.
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 12:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point, but
they would get the rights to Harden and a year out of him at a vastly reduced number than Peavy. Harden would make it appear they weren’t just dumping Peavy.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Nov 3, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Padres are NOT looking to dump Peavy.
His contract is not percieved as a “bad” contract.
They are looking to rebuild which includes reducing their payroll but not WHY they are considering trading him. He is simply their best player with the most value so it is reasonable to assume he would bring the most in return.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that the Dads want Harden in their 2009 rotation,
but he has a lot more value than Marshall on the trade market. (Marshall doesn’t have much value to the Dads, either, because he hasn’t proven that he can stay healthy for 180 innings and he is one year away from arbitration.) If the Dads do some research and find that Harden will net them an A-level and a B-level pitching prospect, they might take him plus two of (Vitters, Ascanio, Veal, Pie). Not likely, but it has been done before.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not what the Padres are looking for.
They are looking to rebuild so they are looking for a package built around a top of the rotation starting pitcher with 0-3 years of MLB service time.
Harden will be a free agent after 2009 so he would not fit what they are looking for as a centerpiece. Marshall is not a top of the rotation pitcher so he would not fit as the centerpiece.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What I think will happen
Dempster is going to find out what he can get in the FA market and then come back to the Cubs with what he thinks is a fair hometown discount. If I recall Aramis Ramirez did the same thing 2 years ago.
by ak123 on Nov 2, 2008 10:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
SCROLL DOWN TO #12 and PREPARE TO VOMIT!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/ben_reiter/10/30/reiter.top.freeagents/index.html
someone at SI.com’s top 50 FA list and where he thinks theyre best suited for…..I almost choked on no 12.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 2, 2008 10:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Please no!
The thought of Wood not in a Cubs uniform is too sad for me to even think. Please don’t leave us Woody!
by cubfanwill on Nov 2, 2008 10:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just imagining him in STL
Makes me shudder….I’m fine if he leaves, but that would be way too weird
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 2, 2008 10:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He CANNOT go to the Cards!
This is only the beginning....Lou Pinella end of '07 season and Chicago Transit Authority (the band when they were really good).
by mrcubsfan on Nov 3, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what the Cubs need!
Another old-ass outfielder in Ibanez!! Someone call Moises Alou as the 4th OF
by NittanyCub on Nov 2, 2008 10:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
beimel
sure looks like a good one to pick up
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Nov 2, 2008 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yea I really want a guy
Who breaks his hand in a bar fight IN THE MIDDLE OF PLAYOFF SERIES making him unavailable. No thanks
"I am not ashamed to say I love Greg Maddux" - Jim Hendry
by Doggie Stalker on Nov 3, 2008 9:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No way...
The cardinals are talking about bringing back Izzy (for whatever reason). They have two guys in Mott and Perez who are about a year away from the closer’s role if they given develop a secondary pitch. Also, there is no way that they hitch their bullpen to Woody’s arm given the fact that they already have a huge question mark in the rotation with Carp. I would not be surprised to see them pursue somebody like Putz from Seattle in a trade but I highly doubt that Woody is on the Cards Radar.
Whoever wrote this article probably did not put anymore thought into it than the folks who come up with some of these trade proposals on BCB.
"Sports are a crazy business. If there was a template, we'd all be champions, right? But there's one winner and 29 or 30 losers; one guy wins, everybody else is tied for last. That's the way it works" -- Mark Cuban
by TheRiot Police on Nov 3, 2008 9:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Let him go
The Cubs took a chance on him coming off Tommy John surgery, when I’m sure there weren’t many offers for his services. They paid his salary and gave him a chance. If there is anyone on this team (besides Wood) who should give the Cubs a “hometown” discount, it’s Dempster. He has been a productive pitcher for Chicago, but he WILL NOT repeat this past season. I would prefer they sign Sabathia or trade for Peavy.
"In an ocean or in a glass, cool water is such a gas."
by markleonette on Nov 2, 2008 10:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
handle big city pressure? If I recall, Demp basically crapped his pants in Gm 1 of the NLDS....
…If he wont give the Cubs the exclusive window and sign a 3 year deal with an option year after all Jim Hendry has done for him, good riddance. I will take the draft picks, thank you..
"When I got to Chicago, fans came to Wrigley Field just to have fun, now they come to see us win. The expectations have changed, for the players and for the fans. It’s about winning." Kerry Wood, 7/14/08
by JB 23 on Nov 2, 2008 11:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Just because he is testing...
…the market, doesn’t mean he is likely to go bye bye. If I was him, I would test the market as well. You play your whole career to get this chance and he is coming off a good year.
I’m sure Hendry has his limit, but he had to expect he was going to have to pay up to keep him.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 2, 2008 11:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I think this is just speculation on Rosenthal's part.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 3:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
If nothing else, he’s going to use this situation as leverage with the Cubs to get a larger and longer deal, or I should say his agent.
I think the fact he wont negotiate before the Nov 13 deadline is an indication of his intent to field other offers.
Ive gone back and forth on this one….I honestly dont know what I would do if I were Hendry.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 3, 2008 7:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Demp owes us a discount.
We’re the team that gave him the opportunity to get to this point. It’d be a pretty crappy move if he left for the most money.
That being said, I can’t see him NOT giving the Cubs the “hometown discount” that they are owed.
by kanderber on Nov 3, 2008 7:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
And he gave the Cubs a discount when he signed his 3 year deal
at the end of the 2005 season.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tell that to his agent and see how far it gets you.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 8:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In Dempster's case...
…he could also say he already gave the Cubs a discount by producing at a much higher level than his salary in 08. Sure, the Cubs took a chance on him and gave him the opportunity to recapture his career, but the Cub discount will not be more than 7-8% below what the other clubs offer, IMO.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 3, 2008 8:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
Players don’t owe clubs discounts. Clubs like the Cubs especially are making more than enough money to share it with the people who have talent.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dempster owes nothing
It is a two-way street. Dempster has the right to get what he can get. If he stunk this year, would you say the Cubs should resign him because they owed him?
If Dempster wants to stay in Chicago he may give the Cubs a discount and in that case I suspect he would return but he doesn’t owe the Cubs anything.
by rlpete on Nov 3, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This does not surprise me.
A few days after the Cubs pathetic post-season display, a friend of mine ran into Dempster in a restaurant bar. Long story short, Demp was not entirely pleased with the way some of the so-called leaders handled things in the clubhouse. He was obviously disappointed and felt some of the players lacked passion.
If he is referring to Cubs players who are under contract for a few more years, there’s a chance he may take the opportunity to move on.
That said, he also told my friend “I’m not going anywhere”.
I suspect he will stay, but his comments on the clubhouse were not encouraging.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Nov 3, 2008 7:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he has to step up himself.
I always saw Dempster as one of those leaders. He has also stated publicly that he would like the Cubs to pick up Kevin Millar, someone who can help keep a clubhouse loose.
I’d be in favor of that — Millar isn’t that good any more, but he’s good enough to back up RF, LF, 1B and pinch-hit when needed, and provide comic relief. If you think that isn’t necessary, ask the 2004 Red Sox.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 8:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I got the impression.............
…………….Demp did what he could in the clubhouse, but the “negative factors” were too great for just one or two guys to overcome.
We can’t move Soriano in all liklihood, but if Hendry can find homes for Ramirez and Lee, I think the team can be retooled, mentally as well as physically.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Nov 3, 2008 9:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can we put the brakes on the "move Ramirez and Lee" talk? Hendry has stated that moving
them is not a priority. Any discussion that starts with this is moot.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 9:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why on earth should the Cubs try to trade Ramirez?
by kanderber on Nov 3, 2008 9:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think...
… what tville was talking about was the perceived “negative” vibes that were given off in the clubhouse, and that Ramirez might have been the source of some of this.
Maybe getting one or two more like Dempster WITHOUT dumping good players just because of their clubhouse vibes, might do the trick.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 9:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care...
…if Aramis walks up to every player and tells them to F themselves prior to each game. He’s a solid player and to even think of trading him because he might be a negative influence (is there ANYTHING to back this idea up?) is absurd. In my opinion, of course.
by kanderber on Nov 3, 2008 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh?
It’s impossible to upgrade from Ramirez at 3B?
Difficult, yes, but impossible, no.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Nov 3, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
A number of alternatives............
…………involving multiple players/positions have been offered up in previous posts. Some of these ideas have merit.
"Happiness? A good cigar, a good meal, a good cigar and a good woman - or a bad woman; it depends on how much happiness you can handle." ~ George Burns
by tville on Nov 3, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that the implication is that someone (not necessarily Ramirez)
had a “woe-is-us” attitude instead of, “let’s go kick some ass”. Nothing to do with his interaction with other teams’ players.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 3, 2008 2:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How about we keep the talent
and ask the manager to consider whether he have a role in setting a positivie tone?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't it just be easier to find a new manager?
After all, we have one already under contract stashed away in the broadcast booth.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Here's my dream trade scenario -
Lou Piniella and Ryan Theriot for Jose Reyes. Think Omar takes it?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I know a guy who does that well...
…Dusty Baker
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 3, 2008 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is that the manager who was able
to win some post-season games with the Cubs?
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He sure did...
…and I think he did that because of his players. No doubt in my mind, the Cubs team of September and October of 03, would have beaten both the 07 and 08 Cubs in a playoff series. I say that because of 2 very dominant pitchers (Prior and Wood) and also because that was the last Cub team to have legitimate 1 and 2 hole hitters, and they set the stage for the entire lineup.
I’ll also add this, for the most part, I was one who put the majority of the 04, 05 and 06 problems on Hendry’s plate vs Baker and I continue to today.
With that said, if you were the GM of a major league team, would you hire Dusty Baker over Piniella as your manager?
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 3, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No.
I do believe Dusty overworked his pitchers. Pitchers are too valuable to overwork. Lou isn’t perfect at that, but he’s a lot better.
I also think Lou far surpasses Dusty in understanding the value of OBP.
And where Lou doesn’t trust anyone, Dusty never stops trusting in players who have long since proved they aren’t what he thought they could be.
I’m critical of Lou, but I think he’s a good manager.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2008 1:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Lou is a great manager also, but I don't believe the difference between
Lou and Dusty is as great as a lot of Cub fans like to believe.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 4, 2008 8:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The very fact that we are talking about moving Sori down in the order
is proof positive of the difference. Dusty would have loved Sori at lead-off.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2008 8:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This team won 97 games. Why nuke it and start over?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My guess
is that Ryan will go out and see what is out there, and come back to Hendry for a “will you match or come close” deal.
That said, some general thoughts:
I think most people knew that on the open market, 4 years for Dempster would be likely. He needs to do what’s best for him. For the Cubs, I could see Hendry doing say, 3 years with an option, or 3 years with some performance triggers to get a 4th.
Now that said, how far do you go? Assuming that open market nets around 15 million per year (which has been a loose AAV speculated upon), I think if Dempster is willing to do a slight discount, say, around 13 AAV, then it is something to consider. I don’t think Dempster will repeat his performance. That said, we do need a 4th starter, and Ryan is one of the better ones out there. Furthermore, sadly, a 13 million AAV actually is about right for a middle of the rotation starter, and I think Dempster can at least put up solid #3/#4 starter type numbers.
I don’t think I’d go all out (4 years and market value), but if Dempster is willing to work with us, then I think you contemplate keeping him. Certainly, exploring other options needs to occur, but Sabathia will likely be too costly. I don’t trust Burnett’s health history, along with the fact that he’ll be extremely costly. I would like Lowe, but it certainly feels like we’ve got some budget constraints. Sheets is too risky for us. Peavy would be interesting, but a lot of things would have to happen for us to land him (namely, Atlanta would have to completely back down from not only offering their top prospects, but their 2nd tier prospects, guys like Cole Rohrbaugh, Julio Teheran, Jordan Schafer, and so forth (top level being Hanson/Heyward for me).
by toonsterwu on Nov 3, 2008 8:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I mostly agree, however,
I doubt if Demp can pull an offer of 4 years/15M, he will consider staying for 3/13.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Nov 3, 2008 8:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
3 years plus a 4th that would vest with certain incentives.
That seems the most likely scenario.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 8:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No chance
For crying out loud the Cardinals didn’t blink an eye giving Kyle Lohse 4 years at $41 million. You people who think Dempster will agree to a 3 year deal are blind to the market realities for pitching the past three seasons. Dempster will have ZERO PROBLEM getting 4 years. Heck, he may even get several teams to offer up 5 years.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The economy is the wildcard in all of this speculation about contracts.
Who know what effect the economy will have on the free agent market? Maybe it only affects the bottom, maybe it also affects the middle, maybe it affects the entire free agent market.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 9:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy that at all
Ryan Dempster hits the open market and you can bet with certainty that multiple teams will be lined up to talk to him. To include the deep pocket Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. Dempster is the second most desirable pitcher available on the open market after CC Sabathia. I could see a team like the Yankees offering Dempster 5 years at $70 million sight unseen. Mets too.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The operating fantasy around here...
…is that Wood and Dempster both turn down their longer, more lucrative options with other clubs, and are given team options that vest as a reward. Because they’re such nice fellows who should take all the risk, while the Cubs organization gets to pay substantially below market value on the both of them.
I don’t know why this should be true. It just seems to be the assertion of a lot of people, here and elsewhere.
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That same group will be calling those two opportunists because
they accepted a better offer than what the Cubs had proposed. I wouldn’t begrudge either player for taking the best offer as long as the team was competitive. I love it when someone calls a player greedy as they are searching through the want ads and Hotjobs.com looking for a higher paying job.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's called Cub Fan Offseason Disease
Symptons include the following…
1. Steadfast belief that all the low revenue teams around baseball shall serve as farm system for the Cubs and trade us top flight talent for marginal talent offered up in mass quantity bundle. E.g., acquisition of Jake Peavy for Micah Hoffpauir, Felix Pie, Mike Fontenot, Sean Marshall, Kevin Hart and a 2 year subscription to Vineline.
2. Steadfast belief that current desirious free agents of the ballclub (e.g., Kerry Wood, Ryan Dempster) can’t wait to come back under a big hometown discount contract.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot #3. The undying hope
that all of our players that sucked last year will instantly turn into All-stars next year.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's because some players do value loyalty and comfort zones over a bit more money.
I mean, really. You think Ryan Dempster is going to starve if he gets $13 million a year instead of $15 million?
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No he won't starve, but wouldn't you wonder if a team
valued your services if another team offered you 20% more money? I’m not saying a player should always jump a the highest offer, but a home town discount should be within reason. A guy should not have to accept less than market value for his services just because ownership screwed up and signed a bunch of players to more money than they are worth. It’s not up to Kerry Wood or Demp to cure the Cubs financial woes. Fair is fair, but they shouldn’t be expected to sign bad contracts just to stay on this team.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 10:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As I said...
… money isn’t the only thing that motivates players. And the free agent era is littered with players who took the highest possible offer, only to get to a city they didn’t like, or a team that didn’t really have a spot for them.
Wood & Dempster will stay. Book it.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 10:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they will stay too, but I wouldn't begrudge either of them for leaving
if they receive a significantly better offer from a good team. Loyalty is one thing, but these guys only have so many opportunities in their careers.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 10:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Again...
… “opportunities”? Seriously? To take maybe $5-6 million over the term of a $45-$50 million contract?
You’re talking about these people as if they are automatons. They are human beings who have actual lives, some of whom feel their lives are better in a certain place.
It’s the same reason Brian Giles stays in San Diego even though they suck and he had a chance to play for a contender (Boston) in 2008. He likes it there.
It really is as simple as that.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You sound as if a player has never or should take a better offer
from another team. Occasionally, they leave just because they want a change of scenery. I’m agreeing with you that they will both stay with the Cubs. My only point is that I wouldn’t be shocked if one or both left for a better offer and I wouldn’t hold it against them.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I'm not saying that.
I’m saying that in SOME cases, players make bad decisions by simply going for the most dollars.
Wood and Dempster seem like men who take into account more than just money.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking two different things.
I agree a player will give up 5-6M over a $50M contract.
If Demp is offered 4/15, that’s $60M guaranteed. Toonster was stating that was what Demp would be offered on the open market, but he would give a discount and consider staying for 3/13, $39M.
At this contract size, I’m saying nobody, however much they love the Cubs, etc, will walk away from $21M guaranteed.
But the wind blew me back via Chicago, In the middle of the night
by N Oakley on Nov 3, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 3, 2008 10:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was referring to the free agent market overall.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 9:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Let Dempster walk...
His “market value” right now is at least at the 4 year, $50 million mark. It could be even higher. Sorry, but I’m not comfortable giving Dempster those numbers. He is a good pitcher. I don’t deny that. But I’ll also bet the ranch he never again matches his 2008 production totals of quality starts, innings, wins and ERA.
Just once I would like to see Hendry have to operate within financial constraints. It would lead to wiser decisions. Handing over blank check to Dempster (which I still believe the Cubs will do in the end) is stupid baseball move. Sean Marshall and Chad Gaudin can compete for a spot in the rotation. Who knows maybe even Rich Hill finds himself. And/or the Cubs can sign a reclamation project. I’m comfortable with a front 4 of Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Marquis.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Cubs one of 3 teams in talks with Pads
The other 2 are the prospect laden Dodgers and Braves so it would still be a miracle if the Cubs pulled it off. Towers wants quality over quantity, i.e. 2 or 3 very good players.
by Cubinator on Nov 3, 2008 10:00 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't buy this one bit...
Who in the heck are the Cubs going to be able to offer up that appeals to the Padres?? If I’m trading Jake Peavy then I want two or three ELITE young talents. And when I say elite I’m talking about how a Ryan Braun for example was categorized before his major league arrival in 2007. We have NOBODY like this in the system. And no, you can’t dazzle San Diego with mass quantities of Triple A crap and major league role players.
Peavy will EXPAND his list of teams he is willing to be traded to just as soon as one of them chirps in that they will renegotiate his contract as precondition of acquiring him.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that the Cubs don't have the talent to match other offers for Peavy, I think
that you may be overstating his value. He’s not C.C. and no one is going to offer three players of Braun’s talent level for Peavy. Maybe an established major leaguer and a Braun-type player plus a lower prospect would get it done. The Cubs don’t have those type of chips to offer.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 3, 2008 10:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
this is the same BS you ran off at the mouth with
before the Harden trade.
And yet, we got Harden for a starting pitcher and two AAA types, at least one of whom went BACK to AAA after being traded, and the pitcher promptly broke himself.
Trades will be made. Our farm isn’t great, but it doesn’t suck, either. Personally, I wouldn’t change a thing, but I know that’s not entirely likely.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 3, 2008 10:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Difference being...
… Billy Beane wanted to dump Harden, and fast.
The Padres have the luxury of taking their time and getting the best deal they can.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 10:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I agree
but I don’t think that it’s the unmitigated impossibility that some do.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 3, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember that the Padres owner...
…is undergoing a messy divorce, and is talking of selling off a large share of the team (49%). They have non-baseball motivations here.
Also, look at the packages for Haren and Santana last offseason.
Haren:
Carlos González
Brett Anderson
Aaron Cunningham
Greg Smith
Dana Eveland
Chris Carter
Santana:
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Deolis Guerra
Nobody of Braun’s caliber in that lot.
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think Peavy's value will be lower due to health concerns?
He did spend time on the DL with an arm related issue and that has been a concern earlier in his career.
Both Santanna and Haren were healthy for the entire season before they were traded. Peavy also has a lot of guaranteed money coming to him and Santanna required a contract extension. Haren had a discounted contract and the A’s were able to demand a larger and higher ceiling prospect package.
I would conclude the Padres would be more likely to get a package similar to what the Twins recieved for Santanna because of the amount of money still owed to Peavy.
Question: Would the Padres have yielded a better package if they had not signed Peavy to the extension last year?
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 11:00 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The health issues are a concern, although obviously not to the extent that Harden’s were.
As for the extension, it’s hard to say. The money he’s owed makes him attractive, but the no-trade clause lowers his value. (Yes, a big-market team could induce him to waive the no-trade clause by extensively renegotiating his contract. But then why not just throw the money at Sabathia, Burnett or Dempster? It’s foolish to give up the money and the top prospects. The Padres will get a better return for Peavy with his contract intact.)
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 11:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
So the no-trade clause limits the demand for Peavy
since he is only willing to waive his no-trade right for only a few teams. The amount of money he is owed is not really the biggest roadblock, it’s the small number of teams that are involved.
That makes sense.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Noone said anything
about dazzling them with mass quantities of AAA players. But for the most part I agree. The Cubs system is pretty much bereft of elite prospects. The Shark probably can’t even be included, as he’s not exactly cheap talent. The best we can do is probably Ceda, Vitters, and Pie. Not slouches by any means, but that package doesn’t come close to what the Braves and Dodgers can offer. The question really isn’t what they can offer, but what other teams will offer. We don’t have the ammunition to strong arm our way to getting Peavy, but if other teams balk then it’s a possibility.
Something else to note: Peavy’s below market contract is one of the things that makes him really attractive. For a team to renegotiate his contract in addition to giving up 3 Ryan Braun talents they would have to be insane. Peavy is very good but noone is going to pay that much. If that’s what Towers wants then Peavy will be playing his home games in SD next year.
by Cubinator on Nov 3, 2008 10:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
I’ll stand by the opinion that other teams not currently on Jake Peavy’s okay list will enter the bidding for his services. All it takes is for the Steinbrenner boys (or Theo Epstein, or Omar Minaya) to call up Peavy’s agent and say that they are willing to rip up his current contract and structure a new one for the Yankees to pop on his list of acceptable destinations.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Except that a GM contacting his agent before a trade is in place is known in the baseball world as "tampering".
Do you really think that Theo Epstein is going to risk a $1M fine and the loss of a first round draft pick or two when he can talk to CC right now?
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Except if Theo asks the Padres first
then they can talk to Peavy. Why wouldn’t the Padres agree to that if it helped increase the market for Peavy? It is a valid point. Things have changed since Peavy signed the contract. He may be willing to listen to other teams if the incentive$ are right.
by rlpete on Nov 3, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Theo does know three things:
1. CC can pitch in the AL. Peavy may or may not be able to pitch with the Green Monster at his back. The NL West doesn’t exactly have the same bats as the AL East.
2. CC only costs money and a first round draft pick. Peavy will cost 3 A-level prospects plus money to waive the NTC, renegotiate, etc..
3. Peavy has some injury history, and he would probably require at least six years on a new contract. CC has less injury history and will require six years on a new contract.
In all likelihood, if Theo blows Towers away with an offer, he will take it to Peavy’s agent and grant him the authority to talk with Theo.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yanks and Angels approved by Peavy
Per rotoworld.
by Cubinator on Nov 4, 2008 2:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yanks not approved
Per mlbtraderumors today.
Lol, this is ridiculous trying to keep track. I’ll stop doing that now.
by Cubinator on Nov 4, 2008 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Towers said several clubs have shown interest in Peavy, a 27-year-old who won the Cy Young Award in 2007 and is guaranteed $63 million over the next four years. He added that he is "focused on three" clubs that Peavy has said he might favor.
Towers declined to identify the three but said that "if any is willing to step up, there’s a deal there."
So at least from his public comments, he feels the Cubs have the players necessary to make a deal (assuming we can consider the Cubs one of those three teams, which I think is a safe bet).
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 10:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And further more
Towers and the Dodgers could talk trade again this month as Towers tests Jake Peavy’s trade value. Jump-starting the GM meetings in Dana Point, Towers yesterday was to meet with the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Nov 3, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's important to remember this is only the beginning of the process.
Last year, the Santanna trade dragged out over several months. It will be interesting to see if Peavy is traded much earlier as the Twins never did get that better offer they were looking for and may have gotten less than they were initally offered.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Very important
This could merely set the ground work for a trade. The Padres could approach this one of two ways, IMO:
1. Make a quick deal before teams can sign FA’s and hopefully get solid prospects from it.
2. Wait until most of the FA pitchers have signed, then target teams that still have pitching needs and work from there.
I love to play baseball. I'm a baseball player. I've always been a baseball player. I'm still a baseball player. That's who I am. - Ryne Sandberg
by Trey2317 on Nov 3, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Same article says
that Towers has never done a three-way trade and would prefer to make a direct trade. Doesn’t that imply that he thinks he can get what he wants from the Cubs w/o bringing in another roster? Assuming that doesn’t mean Towers is asking for Geovany Soto, this could be good news.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, I think Towers thinks he will get what he wants from the Braves.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yes, that's the place with the most stock on the shelves
but if I say I can buy what I’m looking for a Best Buy, Radio Shack, or the pawn shop, that means I’m either lying about the pawn shop to bring down the price somewhere else or I actually think I can get what I’m looking for there.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My point is, he can't get what he wants from the Cubs
because they don’t HAVE what he wants.
The Braves do have what he is looking for, a top of the rotation pitching prospect close to MLB ready.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He did say "if ANY is willing."
All of the San Diego, Chicago and national media are reporting that the Cubs and Padres are discussing trading Peavy. That doesn’t mean a trade gets done, but it does suggest that the Cubs have enough prospects to interest the Padres. Towers isn’t doing this to waste Hendry’s time, and vice versa.
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 12:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But that's assuming the report is completly accurate.
I’m rather skeptical that the Cubs match up with the Padres. Personally, I think the only way this could happen is with a 3 way deal.
Towers may prefer to a straight 2 team trade but to get the top of the rotation pitcher he wants, he may have to be more creative because of Peavy’s no-trade protection.
Hey, it's a new century!
by cowsarecool220 on Nov 3, 2008 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
To be quite honest, I don't think Tampering Kevin has much of a history of lying.
If anything he’s a bit too honest for my tastes.
Here’s how it shakes out, in my opinion:
1) The Cubs and Padres are having discussions in good faith, which means that the Cubs do have a legitimate shot of landing Peavy, if they are willing to part with what the Pads want.
2) The Braves and Dodgers both have more valuable trading chips than we do, so if they want to outbid the Cubs, they can.
3) If the Cubs and Dodgers both have competing bids, and the Dodgers have a better bid, the Cubs may still get Peavy, because of the reluctance to deal him in the division.
4) There is a minimum level of return for the Padres to deal Peavy, or they’ll simply hold onto him.
by cwyers on Nov 3, 2008 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I've been skeptical, too,
but we’re reading what we’re reading from Towers.
I’ve been assuming that Towers is keeping Vitters and Ceda off the table because he has corner IFs aplenty already and because he traded us Ceda before. I could be wrong about that.
But what if the deal for Peavy includes Marmol? If the Padres thought Marmol could return to starting, maybe that’s what they’ve asked for and Hendry hasn’t jumped at the deal as he considers what he’s going to have to do with Dempster and Woody.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, let's look at this from Tower's viewpoint...
He has said that he wants 3 elite prospects for Peavy. Good. I don’t blame him for wanting to rebuild. The Cubs have two players who might fit that category, though neither is a pitcher: Vitters and Pie. (Pie probably still has value to the Dads because of the vastness of Petco Park.)
What to do about the third? Two possibilities:
1. Take Khalil Greene. That clears $6.5M off their books, and they seem to want to dump him. If they want Theriot, send him over. If they want Cedeño, send him over. Having taken Greene, they may be willing to settle for a lesser prospect(s) like Ascanio and/or Veal.
2. Send them a veteran that can be flipped for prospects. DeRo has no value to the Dads on the field in 2009, but he might have a lot of value to the Twins as a 3B, Mets as a 2B, Indians, or Dodgers. Let Towers negotiate a deal with a third team. That gives the Dads one A-level or two B-level prospects, so they might get four prospects total. The Twins especially seem to have good young pitchers and a gaping hole at 3B. The Cubs would have to decide whether they can handle the loss of DeRo, and whether or not they need to replace him. Harden might be another candidate for this strategy. Lilly would work as well, but it defeats the purpose of getting another stud for the rotation.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Dempster
Love Ryan Dempster. Defended him when he was the closer (felt he was much better than a lot of the crap we had seen in that spot over the years).
But … I heard a stat on the radio last week that was pretty alarming. Dempster was among MLB’s leaders in batters faced with the bases loaded. You can spin that stat a couple ways — he’s great under pressure/he lets a lot of guys on base. Or, he was really lucky.
Unless he’s willing to give a substantial discount, Dempster’s age and tendency to put guys on base makes me think he’s a bad investment.
I’m not saying Peavy CAN be had, but I don’t think a package of Marshall, Pie, Ceda and Vitters would be completely unreasonable. A 27-year-old Peavy at 4 years and $63 million is probably better than a 30-something year-old Dempster at 5 years and $75 million.
Assuming Hendry could talk the Pads into those four for Peavy, the question is whether Dempster plus those four is more valuable than Peavy and the extra cash.
I’d say Peavy and the extra cash, because I don’t think Pie and Marshall really fit in the Cubs plans and because Vitters and Ceda are unknowns and the Cubs need to win now.
Last point: I doubt Dempster will give the Cubs much of a discount. Wood, on the other hand, probably would. Just my gut.
by elgato on Nov 3, 2008 12:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Three way deal could net us somethign useful
Even if its not Peavy, perhaps the Dodgers or Braves would need a third team to make the parts fit, particularly with LA as theyre in the same division…..just a thought.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 3, 2008 2:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
braves willing to deal yunel escobar
thatd be a nice long term solution at short.
bring up felix.
by kylejo on Nov 3, 2008 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 3, 2008 6:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Per Levine
Hendry and Towers played golf today, and Towers is very interested.
Towers apparently wants Pie/Marshall/Ceda/Cedeno and I’d also throw in anyone not named Soto/Marmol.
I think this gets done this week.
Devin Hester, you are ridiculous! -Jeff Joniak
by ARAM FOR MVP on Nov 3, 2008 6:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Don't think so.
Even if Frank Wren is not willing to trade his “top prospects”, his second tier prospects are a whole lot better than anyone on that list.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 3, 2008 6:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No trade of that magnitude happens that quickly
I can’t believe Towers would pull the trigger without seeing what the Braves could do to up the ante.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 3, 2008 6:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How many Bruce Levine rumors have ever come true?
That’ll tell you the answer to this one.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 3, 2008 8:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Agree...
…Bruce has good contacts, but he always takes a little bit of information too far, because he wants to be the first guy to call something.
Anyway, maybe Towers feels bad about tampering with Prior and he feels he owes Hendry one. Wishful thinking I know, because I would make that trade in a heart beat.
"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel
by MPH73 on Nov 3, 2008 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he does feel he owes Jim something
The limit of that would probably be listening to a trade offer that he was unlikely to accept.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 3, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Amen brother
San Diego has this supposed deep braintrust of Sandy Alderson, Kevin Towers, Paul DePodesta and Grady Fuson in their front office. Hmmm, I wonder why then they are such a wretched franchise.
There is no chance Felix Pie, Jose Ceda and Sean Marshall net a Jake Peavy. That would be highway robbery of the tallest order imagineable.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey look at the Allen Iverson trade today...
That came out of nowhere, and seemed to develop rather quickly
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 3, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Heavens to mergatroid
You tell me if you are sitting in San Diego’s shoes if you trade Jake Peavy for Felix Pie, Jose Ceda and Sean Marshall. An outfielder who can’t hit major league pitching, a relief prospect that originated in the San Diego organization and a lefty pitcher who projects as perhaps a 4th or 5th starter but more than likely a swing pitcher out of the pen.
"Listen, if you start worrying about the people in the stands, before too long you're up in the stands with them." -- Tommy Lasorda
by MDBNIU on Nov 3, 2008 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I didnt say theyd take it...
I was responding to the time issue….if that somehow went down, I dont see why it couldnt happen reasonably quick.
I dont know what the Pads are expecting and I dont know how many Hamilton for Volquez trades are out there, in otherwords, the blue chippers you think are ‘cant miss’ often do just that.
Whereas Marshall can be a successful major league starter…..again, i was advocating the Padres would take this trade, just that the timing can vary.
Okay, just so I understand it... in your wildest fantasy, you are in hell. And you are co-running a bed and breakfast with the devil.
by bren on Nov 3, 2008 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't because
— The Cubs don’t have the talent to overwhelm the Padres.
— The Padres would be stupid to not talk to other teams to see what they could get for a legitimate ace to maximize their return.
— Trades don’t happen that fast (and I doubt the Iverson one did). There is a lot of work that goes into it – this isn’t a fantasy league where there are only two actual people involved..
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 4, 2008 7:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"cant hit major league pitching"
after he was called back up all he did was hit .300 with an .841 ops.
and why is sean marshall relegated to 4th, 5th or bullpen role? All he has done since he has been in the league is lower his ERA and WHIP every year, while also increasing his strikeout rate.
bring up felix.
by kylejo on Nov 4, 2008 8:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sean Marshall is continually underrated by Cub fans.
If this guy overcomes his durability problems, he’s going to be a solid starter.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2008 8:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
if he has durability problems, then might not the "underrating" be warranted?
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 4, 2008 1:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a curious dynamic with Marshall
Some people overrate him, thinking he could be a starter all season in 2009. He can’t. You can only plan to pitch him 125 innings give or take.
On the other hand, there are people who totally underrate his potential. This is a guy who has pitched very well when healthy. If the Cubs can work him up to a full season’s workloard, he is not a 5th starter.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
are you a lawyer?
or given today’s significance, perhaps a politician… ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 4, 2008 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not a lawyer or a politician -
I did vote, but only once.
The author of this post is not a certified scout, doctor, agent, statistician, manager, or journalist, nor was he ever a very good player, though he tried very hard to be like Ryne Sandberg and was about as scrappy as it gets (in T-ball). Any opinion expressed above should in no way be confused with fact, truth, or reality and is hereby qualified in the following ways: 1) The author does not know as much about baseball as Lou Piniella. 2) The author does not know as much about baseball as Jim Hendry. 3) The author does not know as much about baseball as either Dusty or Darren Baker.
by DGU on Nov 4, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No, he's Marshall's agent! :-)
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
by DeRoMyHero on Nov 4, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that would explain a lot
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."
by ballhawk on Nov 4, 2008 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Marshall is a good young left hander who is coming into his own and
should be in the rotation. His salary allows you put money into other positions. You cant have every pitcher in your rotation making 10M+. The Cubs don’t have a starting pitcher at his development level in their organization, so they would be crazy to put him in a deal to get a part-time LH bat. Put him in the rotation and look somewhere else for trade bait.
"Hats for bats.....keep bats warm." - Pedro Cerrano
"Hey bartender, Jobu needs a refill !!!!!!!" - Eddie Harris
by willie mays hayes' gloves on Nov 4, 2008 8:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
plus frakkin' a MILLION.
"That’s the great thing about baseball, you never know what’s going to happen till you get the final out." — Lou Piniella
by drewishdrewid on Nov 4, 2008 10:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Still waiting for a response on that bet . . .
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 4, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
rotoworld.com
is reporting demp’s been offered 3/36 by the cubs and will be fielding offers from other teams before deciding.
I BELIEVE!!!! GO CUBBIES!!!!!!!!!!
by cubsluver22 on Nov 4, 2008 6:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Two thoughts on that
I think it’s fair, and I think he can get more.
Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true! --Homer J. Simpson
by Shanghai Badger on Nov 4, 2008 8:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw this too...
By David O’Brien
November 4, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this
Braves have also talked to DEMPSTER’s agent, not surprising because I know how much Bobby likes him and Frank Wren has known him since they were both with Marlins. People I talked to seem to think Dempster will go back to Chicago, that he just wants to see what’s out there to make sure he’s not taking a far lesser deal (Cubs offered three years, $36 mill) to stay in Chicago. But he loves it there and he’s likely to re-sign.
by jbertram on Nov 4, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
When you post stuff like this...
… please post a link to it, preferably a link to the ORIGINAL article, not the Rotoworld article.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx
by Al on Nov 5, 2008 8:25 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry....
…not sure if that is going to work, I’m no master at this.
by jbertram on Nov 5, 2008 9:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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